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# Global Warming Costs Too Much Money

#### js7a (UID: 579872) writes | more than 8 years ago

6

I was looking at the sheer overwhelmingness of this chart, and I thought, well, this calls for regression!

So, I fired up R and typed this to make this graph:

decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)
billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)

I was looking at the sheer overwhelmingness of this chart, and I thought, well, this calls for regression!

So, I fired up R and typed this to make this graph:

decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)
billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)

plot(decade, billions, xlim=c(1950,2050), ylim=c(0,1000), main="average yearly inflation-adjusted dollar cost of extreme weather events worldwide")

pm <- lm(billions ~ poly(decade, 3))

summary(pm)

The adjusted R^2 statistic is 0.98, meaning that 98% of the variation is explained by the third-degree polynomial, which means that the extrapolation is probably accurate.

Dangerous storms: they cost \$3.5 Billion a year in the 50's, and they're projected to cost 300 times that in the 40's, adjusting for inflation.

Is health care projected to increase 300 times in 90 years in real terms?

### But wait! (0)

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#### Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago

Michael Crichton told me everything would be alright!

### root cause (1)

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#### capoccia (UID: 312092) | more than 8 years ago

i think that rising dollars spent on disaster relief does not mean that we have more disasters now than before. it only means that we are spending more money. this is for a variety of reasons.

awareness has risen. fifty years ago, no one even thought about bailing out asian islands who were hit by tsunamis. we were busy bombing them to finish the second world war.

bureaucracies have been set up to give relief around the world. as these agencies expand, as all bureaucracies do, the money needed increases.

inflation.

increasing generosity.

more thorough relief costs more. look at health care.

on and on. the idea that global warming is a primary cause for rising disaster relief costs is crazy. it is the halucinations of two global organizations grasping for legitimacy.

### Re:root cause (1)

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#### js7a (UID: 579872) | more than 8 years ago

The source graph counts "economic losses" which I think is seperate from disaster relief. The only such losses that actually cost money (i.e., don't just destroy stuff) are the insured losses, which are colored in a different shade.

### bzzt (0)

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inflation.

### Re:bzzt (1)

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#### capoccia (UID: 312092) | more than 8 years ago

somehow i didn't see it. there are still plenty of other factors.

### bzzt (0)

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#### Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago

there are still plenty of other factors

Most involved your confusion of "dollars spent on disaster relief" with "economic losses," which is what the graph shows.

Just to show you I mean well, I will make some better arguments for you:

- regions of the world that are prone to inclement and dangerous weather are growing more developed and inhabited.

- loss figures are being influenced by the aid community.

Still:

the idea that global warming is a primary cause for rising disaster relief costs is... ...very, very much up for debate. Not in any way "crazy."
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