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SlashCapper

leviramsey (248057) writes | more than 8 years ago

User Journal 6

I'm planning to start posting my sports handicapping here at /., but I'm not going to clutter up this journal with that stuff.

So if you're interested head on over to SlashCapper's journal.

Proudly posting content that's probably illegal in the State of Washington!

I'm planning to start posting my sports handicapping here at /., but I'm not going to clutter up this journal with that stuff.

So if you're interested head on over to SlashCapper's journal.

Proudly posting content that's probably illegal in the State of Washington!

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Yay! (1)

rk (6314) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578017)

I've missed Levi Ramsey handicapping. IIRC, you used to do that over on K5, but I gave up on K5 years ago.

"Wheels within wheels
in a spiral array..."

Re:Yay! (1)

Some Woman (250267) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578248)

RE: your sig

That was a truly amazing internet discussion, and I thank you for reminding me of it. :^)

Re:Yay! (1)

rk (6314) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578909)

Iamthefallen does have a way of boiling it down, doesn't he?

The sad thing is, I can't recall where this conversation took place now.

Huh? (1)

Com2Kid (142006) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578283)

I have heard of % odds, and handicapping in golf, but what in the world is this stuff?

Re:Huh? (1)

leviramsey (248057) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578804)

I'll assume that you're referring to the +/- prices...

Fundamentally odds are expressions of risk versus reward. In different contexts, different expressions tend to predominate.

I'll use three terms in this discussion. Ri is the risk amount, Re is the total return, and Pr is the net return (i.e. Re - Ri).

Among UK bookmakers, a fractional representation prevails of the form "Pr/Ri", e.g. "4/1" (i.e. 1 unit risked has a profit of 4 units, for a total return of 5 units).

In Continental Europe, the odds are expressed as the decimal quotient of Re/Ri, thus the "4/1" UK odds are expressed as 5.00 on the Continent.

In North America, two similar representations have developed. Traditionally baseball lines have been expressed using a 5-unit basis, with a 1-unit straddle. This is a concise means of expressing the odds for either side of the proposition. Our "4/1" (which for a wager in which there's two possibilities is a massive underdog) would be expressed as 20-21. The underdog's odds are quoted first as 5*(Pr/Ri). The favorite's odds are quoted second as 5*(Ri/Pr), thus in this example, to bet the favorite, $21 would have to be risked to win $5. It should be noted that the example quoted will never be seen as the straddle (the difference between the two which gives the bookmaker an advantage) grows as the scale increases, with 20-24 being more common. This expression is fading (few if any online sportsbooks and few if any Vegas sportsbooks use the method), but its legacy lives on in many sports sections (it's preferred to this day by many illegal local bookies).

The alternative North American system is the "moneyline", which first gained prominence in Vegas and is the primary format used by online sportsbooks. In this system, the standard denominator is 100. Underdog odds, called "plus-money" are expressed as +100*(Pr/Ri). Favorite odds, "minus-money" are expressed as -100*(Ri/Pr). The absolute value, whether favorite or underdog is at least 100 (the numerator will always be greater than the denominator). The magnitude of the favorite will always exceed the magnitude of the 'dog, with the difference between those expressing the juice (some sportsbooks advertise "eight-cent" baseball, meaning that if the underdog odds are +125, the favorite is available at -133).

Over the last few years, a new price method, which I will call the "contract price", has developed. This borrows concepts from the futures and options contract exchanges and applies them to sports betting. Instead of viewing things in explicit risk/reward terms, this views the wager as the purchase or sale of a contract obligating the seller to pay a fixed amount (generally $100) to the buyer should the event stated in the contract come to pass. This view translates very well to the betting exchanges (like Betfair, Betdaq, Tradesports/Intrade, Matchbook, et. al.), but originated with the in-game interactive market developed by the World Sports Exchange (which is not a betting exchange).

In the contract price system, for the buyer of the contract, the odds are expressed as Ri/Re, where Re is equal to the contract amount ($100 most of the time).

Thus 4/1 == 5.00 == 20 == +400 == 20.00 (assuming a $100 contract amount) and 5/2 == 3.50 == 12.5 == +250 == 28.57

Re:Huh? (1)

leviramsey (248057) | more than 8 years ago | (#15578830)

Perl expressions to convert between the different styles are left as an exercise to the reader... ;o)

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