jchenx's Journal: 2007 Console Predictions

Okay, so I do blog on another site, and made some 2007 predictions. I figure since I regularly contribute to Slashdot, I'd share my thoughts here as well. Since I made these predictions last week, some of them have already come true (most notably, the 360 hitting 10 million, and Gates acknowledging that the Wii is the "toughest competitor"). How well will the rest of my predictions go, as someone in the industry? We'll see!

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So, 2006 has finally come and gone. It was definately an amazing year all around. Starting with Oblivion, ending with the mega-hit Gears of War, and a slew of other worthy games in-between ... 2006 showed that the 360 is worthy console after all. Throughout the entire year, there seemed to be non-stop news and speculation about the Wii and PS3, leading all the way up to their respective launches. And let us not forget the killer success of the DS Lite and the PS2's "last hurrah", ending on a great note with FFXII.

That said, 2007 is shaping up to be an incredible year as well. If the post-launch titles for the Wii and PS3 are anything like what we saw for the 360, then Nintendo/Sony fans will be very happy. In the meantime, the 360 keeps on kicking with more great games (Lost Planet, Mass Effect, Bioshock, and eventually Halo 3). And finally, there are a ton of great multi-platform titles slated to come out, with arguably the biggest one being Grand Theft Auto 4.

Like many others, I want to take the time to make some predictions about the upcoming year. As you know, since I work in Microsoft Game Studios, I am biased. I can't deny the fact that MS does pay the bills, so it would be nice to see the 360 continue to kick butt. That said, I've always been a gamer (well before I started working here), and I'd like to think that I've got a fairly objective view of the industry despite that. (If you disagree, feel free to call me out on it too!) Besides, you can take a look at my game collection and see that I play games on pretty much all the major platforms.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how my predictions fare, compared to what other people are guessing. So, without further ado ... my predictions for 2007!

DS
I'll start off with arguably the most successful console of 2006 (handheld or not), the Nintendo DS. There's no doubt that Nintendo, yet again, has conquered the handheld market once again, despite Sony's entry into the industry. That trend is sure to continue into 2007 and beyond.

Predictions

1. Nintendo finally admits that the DS is the successor to the GBA (despite its earlier claims), and that there isn't going to be Game Boy successor
2. There won't be another revision to the DS (a la the DS-Lite), but expect an additional add-on or two (similar to numerous peripherals that came out for the GameBoy)
3. Expect some cool Wii/DS connectivity to be announced later this year (see my Wii predictions for more details)

PSP
While the PSP is by no means the market leader that Sony wanted it to be, it has done what no other portable has arguably done before: be a solid #2 to Nintendo's handheld. It'll be interesting to see how Sony will respond to Nintendo's continued success. Do they continue to fight, or do we start seeing signs of a pull-back in this market?

Predictions

1. More PSP price drops (probably a no brainer here)
2. Improved PS3/PSP connectivity
3. UMD movie market officially declared "dead" by the end of the year
4. Sales continue to be decent, but analysts/pundits/bloggers still regard it as a failure compared to the success of the DS

Xbox 360
Now, onto the home consoles, starting with the Xbox 360. As I mentioned earlier, 2006 was a great year for the 360, with the post-launch games really showing off the console. That should continue into 2007, thanks to all the big name titles coming out.

Unfortunately, I can't be too bold in my predictions here. If I had any cool insider news to share, obviously I wouldn't be allowed to blog about it here. Even if I make some cool speculations, though, you guys might think "Oh he knows something we don't! It must be true!", which wouldn't be right ... so I'm sort of in a no-win situation regarding predictions. :( That said, there's a couple of fairly obvious things that I can still point out ...

Predictions

1. The 360 will be the first console to hit 10 million sold (no duh!)
2. MGS4 and/or FFXIII (or a spinoff) will become multi-platform and land on the 360
3. 360 will continue to be the market leader, although the lead will dwindle signficantly by end of year
4. Sales of the 360 will significantly improve in Japan, thanks to games like Lost Odyssey and Eternal Sonata, but it will still lag behind the Wii and PS3

PS3
Let's face it. 2006 was not the best year for Sony and the PS3. But cheer up, Sony fanboys, 2007 is now here and things should get better ... right?

Predictions

1. PS3 sales will pick up, closing the gap between it and the 360, but still miss expectations and continue to lose out to the Wii
2. Lackluster sales will prompt a price drop of some kind by holiday '07 (either actual drop in price, or uber bundle-package)
3. More formerly Sony-exclusive games will go multi-platform (360 and Wii), such as MGS4 and/or FFXIII (or a spinoff)
4. Sony will announce more PlayStation Network features to be in-line with Xbox Live (such as Entitlements), but not ship them till much later this year

Wii
Arguably, 2006 was "Nintendo's Year", considering how well the DS is doing and the amazing turnaround Nintendo has made with the Wii. Nintendo fanboys will continue celebrating the re-emergence of their favorite company well int 2007.

Predictions

1. Wii availability won't improve significantly until February (bad for me, who is still Wii-less, but great for Nintendo)
2. Sales won't quite reach the 360, but be awfully close by end of year
3. In the meantime, the games attach rate will be rather low (Wii Grandma isn't going to buy a new game every month like traditional gamers), but it won't matter since Nintendo makes a profit on the console anyway
4. A non-traditional "game" for the Wii will be announced and ship in holiday to incredible sales (similar to Brain Age and Nintendogs for the DS)
5. Sony and/or MS will finally wake up and acknowledge how dangerous a competitor Nintendo is, rather than discounting the Wii as a "side console"
6. Nintendo will surprise us with news of a Wii/DS connectivity feature that will make fanboys giggle with glee (imagine a Mario Party game for the Wii, with the DS as an alternate controller ... touchpad mini-games!)

So, that's it for my 2007 predictions! It'll be interesting to see how close or off I am by this time next year. Enough of my rantings though, what do you all think?

You first set of Predictions are spot on, but ...

[WillAffleckUW]

I'm not sure about the ones after the first batch. Specifically, you start to lose your crystal ball after the xBox360 prediction #3 - which won't be true (but the other 360 ones are spot on).

Now, let's look at just after your crystal ball fogs over:

PS3:

1. PS3 sales will pick up, closing the gap between it and the 360, but still miss expectations and continue to lose out to the Wii - correct.
2. Lackluster sales will prompt a price drop of some kind by holiday '07

Re:

[jchenx]

The "360 remains market leader, barely" prediction of mine is yes, arguably the most tenuous. It's mostly myself being an optimist, since I do work in MGS. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen, but I'm still pulling for it nonetheless. (And it would make me look like a Seer if it turned out to be true)

That said, I want to comment on your Wii predictions:

1. Wii availability will massively increase - if you don't believe me, read the Wall Street Journal and other business sources.
2. Sales will beat out

Wii predictions - jchenx or Will in Seattle right?

[WillAffleckUW]

1. I hope you are correct. Every time I go to Fred Meyer or some other store that sells consoles, I look for a Wii, with no luck. Although if you're a big Nintendo supporter, arguably it wouldn't be such a bad thing for demand to remain so high that availability is still limited. If so, that would definately imply that #2 will happen.

Based on the number of factories online and what the WSJ is reporting, the shipments will escalate, especially as Nintendo tries to recapture any potential market share lost to

Prediction Battle in Seattle!

[jchenx]

First of all, it's been bugging me for a while, but you keep typing xBox360. The proper name for the system is Xbox 360 [wikipedia.org]. Or heck, just 360 is fine. It's just a pet peeve of mine. I'm sure it would bother you if I kept typing "wii" or "Wee" or "WII" etc., over and over again.

I've noticed a number of game companies are changing their minds about Sony-only distro plans or initial exclusive deals. On the plus side for you, this should help with xBox360 game availability of cross-platform, even with the higher d

Re:

[WillAffleckUW]

I have reasons why I say what I do. Other than your Viva Pinata point (which is a great game), I stand by my statements.

And having a small dev spinoff unit is how small and simple games work. You may not be able to do a grand scheme game, but you can knock off a decent port if it only costs a few extra devs. Most shops are willing to set aside a small team to work on a Wii title - and even a new game - if most of the dev and marketing groups are working on big projects - cash cows. Same goes for a quic

Re:

[jchenx]

I have reasons why I say what I do. Other than your Viva Pinata point (which is a great game), I stand by my statements.

I was hoping for an actual discussion here, but okay, whatever. :)

And having a small dev spinoff unit is how small and simple games work. You may not be able to do a grand scheme game, but you can knock off a decent port if it only costs a few extra devs. Most shops are willing to set aside a small team to work on a Wii title - and even a new game - if most of the dev and marketing groups

Re:

[WillAffleckUW]

First of all, it's been bugging me for a while, but you keep typing xBox360

Yeah, at least I didn't do what most people do and type 360. Which is normal practice. Sorry if it bugs you. Personally, I preferred Revolution myself ...

Re:

[jchenx]

Yeah, at least I didn't do what most people do and type 360. Which is normal practice. Sorry if it bugs you. Personally, I preferred Revolution myself ...

Just "360" is fine. Is there a reason why you don't use it? Fewer letters, and everyone knows what it means.

I agree, Revolution is a better name, but it sort of screws you in the future. So, any future console from Nintendo can't be revolutionary? It's same reason why "Super" Nintendo was funny (and why the "Ultra 64" turned into simply the Nintendo 64).

Re:

[WillAffleckUW]

Because that's what I type, just as many others do.

Would you prefer I said something like:

I lik teh 360, kul, grafx h0t.

Most people call the Wii the Wii, but there are a number of 360 things out there. I owned IPO shares of a firm with that in their name.

Re:

[jchenx]

Because that's what I type, just as many others do.

Would you prefer I said something like:

I lik teh 360, kul, grafx h0t.

No. I'm not asking you to be a fanboy. :P

I was just pointing out that typing "xBox 360" makes you look, frankly, less credible, and giving you a better option to use. Or at the very least, keep the same number of letters, and use the correct capitalization: "Xbox 360".

Most people call the Wii the Wii, but there are a number of 360 things out there. I owned IPO shares of a firm with that in

Re:

[ElleyKitten]

Hi, I see I'm a little late to the debate, but it looks like an interesting one. I wanted to point out one thing:

I was referring to system sellers, which are your A+++ titles. Fable, Sims 2, and Lego Star Wars ... while decent games, are NOT console sellers the way that Grand Theft Auto 3/Final Fantasy X were for the PS2, and Halo/Halo 2 were for the Xbox. I'm referring to game sales well in excess of a million copies. If you can point out a Nintendo franchise that has done that, which isn't Zelda, I'd

Re:

[jchenx]

Thanks for joining the debate! :)

Super Smash Bros. Melee sold 6 million copies, and was the best selling game on the Cube (for comparison, Wind Waker sold 3 million, and FFX sold 5). It also still has a huge hardcore following (in the middle of boondock Ohio you can still find regular tournaments several times a year). SSB Brawl is going to be a huge hit for the Wii.

Wow, I didn't know SSBM was that popular and sold that well. I was a big fan of the series originally, since it was a great multiplayer title f