TapeCutter's Journal: Cosmic Rays and Climate Change

A recent slashdot story reported on an article by the ex-editor of New Scientist, Nigel Calder. RealClimate have taken issue with what they call "bizarre calculus that takes evidence for solar forcing of climate as evidence against greenhouse gases for current climate change". They have posted a rebuttal to Calder's article that basically concludes: "No trend = no explanation for current changes".

It should also be noted that Calder's article ended with an advertisment for his new book "The Chilling Stars".

Selling a book is not that damning

[benhocking]

Don't get me wrong, I think his theory is bunk. However, I think he very well might be sincere, too. Until evidence comes out otherwise (i.e., that he's been taking money from fossil fuel companies), I think he should be treated as someone who sincerely believes a theory that is most likely bunk. Progress is not made without a lot of bad theories being sifted through. (Usually this happens as part of the peer-review process, which the Times probably doesn't have.)

Nagal is a psuedo-skeptic.

[TapeCutter]

Hi Ben,

Nothing wrong with proposing a theory via a book (Darwin anyone?), or taking money from an oil company (Lord Oxborough), and I love speculation if presented as such, ala Hanssen, Lovelock, string theory, life under the icy crust of Europa, ect, my own speculation (based on converging global problems) is that our agriculture won't keep pace with changing rain patterns and (at best) civilization back-slides 1000yrs or so.

Also the idea CR's have a role in cloud formation seems plausible, I certain

Cosmic rays

[benhocking]

As I understand it the CR research is a long running endeavor that has collected valuable data on CR "showers" themselves but has not identified a trend in the rate of incidents, (ie: no trend in average #CR's hitting Earths atmosphere has been observed for (40?) years, even though I assume most CR's come from the Sun and the average varies in line with it's 11yr cycle).

Actually, IIRC, most cosmic rays are extra-solar. However, there is a significant component that comes from the sun, so you would expect

Re:

[TapeCutter]

"...and don't want to see all such people painted with the same brush"

Yep, nobody should never paint anything without first preparing the surface. :)