sootman's Journal: Apple Prediction Part II

Weak! My previous journal entry, which I planned to edit by adding comments, has been archived, so comments can't be added. Oh well. I'll just put commentary into this one. Original = italics, new = plain text. Old text has been trimmed. Read the original if you want.

- The iPhone will do quite well. There WILL be lines at 6pm on 6/29. (I'm going to the mall that day to see for myself and will post links to pics/vids in the comments below.)

Well, another commitment prevented me from making it out, but there were lines. (I made this point because someone, somewhere--not just a nobody, but someone you might have read; I wish I remembered who--said the iPhone hype was fake and there wouldn't be lines.) Not only were there lines, but they were shown on most major news channels. How well did it do? A bit of searching puts it at 500-700 thousand units in the first weekend. Bloomber.com says "The iPhone broke AT&T's opening-weekend records, selling more in three days than phones such as Motorola Inc.'s Razr did in their first month, according to spokesman Michael Coe."

- Once the iPhone is out, we'll see some more hardware updates, probably starting in August or September. So far this year all we've seen are slightly faster MacBooks, a move to Santa Rosa in the MacBook Pro, and the addition of an eight-way Mac Pro. Except for the 8-way, the Mac Pro line hasn't changed since its introduction almost a year ago. The Mac Mini is also very overdue for an update--it is overpriced and underpowered, and since I've got a G4 Mini that I want to upgrade--but won't at the current price--I hope Apple doesn't let this line languish.

I'm 2 for 2 so far (or a bit more; see below) and wow, when it rains, it pours. Today (August 7) we saw...
- the new iMac
- upgrades to the Mac mini (Core 2 Duo CPUs)
- upgrade for the Airport Extreme Base Station (gigabit ethernet)
- and, something I didn't expect to happen--upgrades to iLife, iWork, and .Mac.
(When making my predictions, I didn't say anything about Apple's software products.)

There is also some new software for the iPhone (in addition to last week's update) as I mentioned below. To be honest, I'm looking forward to much larger updates (video recording!!!) but I'm surprised, pleased, and impressed by how many updates Apple has dropped for the iPhone and how quickly they're coming.

- There will NOT be a touchscreen iPod until after Christmas AT THE EARLIEST. Yes, it's a nice technology. Yes, Apple can and will release one eventually--hell, they could have released one ALREADY if they wanted to, right? I mean, what's easier to make: and iPod or an iPod/phone/Internet thingie? DUH. They KNOW they can. They KNOW people want them. But they DON'T want them to cut into iPhone sales. I bet they won't even release 100/120 GB iPods until then, or change the Shuffle or Nano lines. January at the ABSOLUTE EARLIEST; maybe in time for Valentine's day (like they did with the introduction of the colored Shuffle this year), otherwise wait for Spring or Summer.

- Similarly, the iPhone WON'T get minor revs (higher capacity, lower price) until after Christmas. Major revs, like the ability to use faster-than-EDGE cellular data networks, won't arrive for 9-15 months. Some improvements could be handled just in software updates--the ability to use native IM, or send MMS, or record video with the built-in camera--but given the recent debacle over the $1.99 802.11N update, I'm not sure which of these Apple could/would roll out for free. If they don't come free in a software update, look for them in iPhone 2.0, Spring/Summer 2008. Faster networking WILL be in the next major rev of the iPhone.

Wow, was I ever wrong here. Turns out Apple does not want to milk huge margins out of a handful of customers, and force everyone who wants a touchscreen iPod to buy an iPhone. Turns out they'd rather make aggressive moves and try to capture as much market as possible. The special event on September 5 brought out an ENTIRELY new iPod line, ranging from new colors on the Shuffle to video and a new shape for the Mini to a huge 160 GB capacity for the Classic plus the introduction of the Touch plus a staggering $200 price drop on the iPhone. Wow. I'm speechless. One note regarding margins--if they were able to drop the price $200, that pretty much means the profit on each (original) iPhone was over $200. Wow. Nice. Let's just say the profits went from $250 down to $50--that means they've got to sell 5x as many iPhones as they originally planned to make the same amount of money. We'll see how they do. Overall, this is a big move to solidify the iPod's market dominance.

- As I've said, I have no plans to get an iPhone any time soon. I predict they'll be $249 by mid-2009, at which time I'll buy. Unless my current cell phone dies--then I *might* buy one. But probably not even then. Long story short: as cool as the iPhone is, it doesn't do anything I *need*, or even really *want,* outside of the usual hey-that's-a-neat-feature. (Google maps! Cool! Too bad I don't ever go anywhere but back and forth between my house and my two jobs.) I like my current phone, and it's smaller than the iPhone is or ever will be, and *that's* really important to me. (I don't carry a PDA, because I hate carrying big, heavy crap, and my iPod only gets used in my car.) The only thing I'd like would be a better (~1MP) camera--mine only does 320x240. The introduction of true GPS might also push me to buy one--that's one device I *do* want (I've got one, but with a tiny B/W screen) and would be willing to carry.

And finally, I got this one wrong too. :-) I got an unexpected raise at work the same time the price came down, so I got one of the last (and cheapest) 4 GB models. (OTOH, I got it at the price I wanted--$249.) Overall, I'm happy enough. For phone-related stuff, my old one did some things better. The iPhone obviously does more, and it's quite cool and fun to play with, but it's not better in every single respect. I felt a bit sad when I switched my account over and my old one complained "SIM card not recognized" or whatever the message was.