thoth's Journal: Tablet Haters

I don't get the tablet hate. I'd think tech enthusiasts would welcome them. They represent another step towards ubiquitous computing, and may even shake up the desktop dominance of Microsoft, shifting towards Apple (iOS) and Google (Android) who are also the major players in cell phone computing.

Yes, they aren't suitable for many tasks, but they don't need to be in order to be successful. Convenience, ease of use, accessibility (by that I mean Wifi AND cell-network enabled), cost, and most importantly, being more than adequate (arguably nearly ideal) for the typical tasks of an average person - which would be web browsing, chat, social networking, light gaming, email, not whatever various power users have convinced themselves is typical usage - will win the future.

As far as cost, Apple currently charges a premium over other similar devices, but when the iPad was introduced, tech pundits were shocked at how "low" a price it was: $500 for the base model. I can't imagine Apple can retain their high profit margin in the face of intense competition from Andoid tablet makers, and eventually Microsoft Metro/Windows 8 devices, but the future market is enormous... Apple will sacrifice some profit margin to remain competitive.

But ultimately, I think tablets (and mobile computing in general) have a huge future, surpassing desktops, for the reasons I listed above. There will always be a need for desktops, and servers, and even bigger systems, but I can easily see a world where a significant portion of the world's population can get by with either a tablet or phone as their primary computing device. Seriously. The upside here is literally 3+ billion devices, that will drown out the current installed base of desktops. It'll take some time but that's where this is headed.