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Election prediction

turg (19864) writes | more than 10 years ago

User Journal 22

The spreadsheet has spoken. Here's my prediction. I'm giving the Liberals far more of Quebec than any other prediction I've seen. A surprise to me too, but I'm sticking with it.


Liberal. . . . 121
Conservative . 108
NDP. . . . . . .33
BQ . . . . . . .45
independent. . . 1

And the popular vote:

The spreadsheet has spoken. Here's my prediction. I'm giving the Liberals far more of Quebec than any other prediction I've seen. A surprise to me too, but I'm sticking with it.


Liberal. . . . 121
Conservative . 108
NDP. . . . . . .33
BQ . . . . . . .45
independent. . . 1

And the popular vote:

Conservative . 29%
Liberal. . . . 35%
NDP. . . . . . 17%
BQ . . . . . . 12%
Green. . . . . .6%
Other. . . . . .1%

Breakdown by province or territory

. . . . . . . BC .AL .SK .MB .ON .QC .NB .PE .NS .NL .YK .NT .NU
Liberal. . . . 6 . . . 2 . 4 .60 .30 . 6 . 3 . 3 . 5 . . . 1 . 1
Conservative .24 .27 . 7 . 6 .35 . . . 3 . 1 . 3 . 2 . . . . . .
NDP. . . . . . 5 . 1 . 5 . 4 .11 . . . 1 . . . 5 . . . 1 . . . .
BQ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Independent. . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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As long as... (2, Funny)

ObviousGuy (578567) | more than 10 years ago | (#9538430)

As long as Canada remains an easily enterable country such that I can vacation in Banff, ski in Whistler, and smoke up in Gastown, I really don't care what you do all the way over there on the easter half.

Leave us Freedom-loving Americans here on the West coast alone!

Quebec ... (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9538656)

Curious, but why would you have Quebec give 30 seats to the Liberals, when they are hated by everyone here, both at the provincial and federal level?

Me, I was going to park my vote with the bloc, but I found out that the greens are running here, so they're getting mine.

There's fewer than 20 seats on island of Montreal, and most of these aren't even safe liberal seats any more. 15 to 20 may be more realistic for the province as a whole, which, if your numbers are correct for the rest of the country, would probably give a conervative minority government.

Ontario? (2, Insightful)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9538698)

Looking at your numbers a second time, I think you also put Liberal support in Ontario too high. People I've talked to (I have sisters who live there) are PISSED! They'd vote for a goat before they'll vote Liberal. Right now, it's a question of how many votes the NDP will leach away from Conservative support, not Liberal support.

In other words, I'm saying minority Conservative government.

Any way, I'm voting Green (it was a choice between NDP and BQ, which isn't much of a choice, until I saw that the Greens were running here). Who are you voting for?

Re:Ontario? (1)

Yosemite Sue (15589) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540024)

I think it depends ... I'm in Ontario, and while many of the folks I know are not happy with what McGuinty's done, they can (generally) separate the provincial Liberals from the feds ...

Mind you, as someone who grew up in the West, I don't know that I can be considered a regular Ontarian ...

-- YS

Re:Ontario? (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540102)

Yosemite Sue wrote:
... I don't know that I can be considered a regular Ontarian ...

You could always eat more fibre :-)

... or come down here and have some poutine ... that'll get you going if the cholesterol doesn't kill you first.

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540834)

Where are you in Ontario?

BTW, I've got a long reply to Tom below, if you're interested.

Re:Ontario? (1)

Yosemite Sue (15589) | more than 10 years ago | (#9545641)

I'm in the Centre of the Universe. ;-)

Election-wise, I'm in the Willowdale riding in North York. FWIW, I've been seeing lots of Liberal signs in the neighbourhood, with an occasional Conservative sign here and there ... Not sure if that really means much, though.

-- T

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9546380)

Beaches/East York riding here. As far as signs go, it's NDP out in front with Liberals close behind, Green Party third, and a just a handful of Conservative signs.

The ratio of signs doesn't really represent the ratio of votes. People voting Liberal or Conservative don't see as much need to trumpet it as NDP or Green.

Signs (1)

Yosemite Sue (15589) | more than 10 years ago | (#9550388)

Yeah, I don't think that the signs are a very reliable measurement of support. (The Beaches area is traditionally one of the stronger NDP ridings, right?)

Speaking of signs ... Have you seen the signs of people running under the "PC" party? According to a little news bit I saw last week, the party is the "Progressive Canadian" party - but the signs actually say "Progressive Conservative". They're mostly blue, and seem to be designed to mimic the Conservative ones ...

-- YS

Re:Signs (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9551149)

Well, in the provincial election the NDP got 52% of the vote here with 7 candidates on the ballot (the Beaches is a strong NDP zone and the NDP candidate was the former mayor of East York, so that covered both halves). But Maria Minna has been the Liberal MP since 1993. She's a good community organizer (and she and Peter Tabuns, the NDP candidate have been pulling out all the stops in this campaign). Last federal election, she got more than twice as many votes as the NDP who were second place (and who had about twice as many lawn signs). The Tories came in third place with 10% of the vote that time. I think the Conservatives will probably get less than that this time. I am hesitantly predicting that the Green Party will get more votes than the Conservatives in this riding (though the NDP candidate is the president of Greenpeace Canada, so that might skew things, as might the fear that NDP/Green vote-splitting will result in a Liberal win). As for who will win, it's really too close to call (though I gave it to the NDP in tallying up my nationwide prediction). It might come down to a few votes.

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540811)

Well, I've got the Liberals dropping from 99% of the seats in Ontario to less than 60%.

The vast majority of urban ridings in Ontario would never go to Stephen Harper, no matter what the Liberals do. For example, I'd be absolutely shocked if the Conservatives got as much as 10% of the vote in my riding (but it's neck-and-neck between the NDP and Liberals. It might even come down to a few votes. Beaches/East York -- watch for it). I think you greatly overestimate the Conservatives in Ontario. If it wasn't for the sponsorship scandal, they would be getting absolutely slaughtered in this election. Paul Martin has occupied the territory of fiscal conservatism, leaving them nothing but social conservatism. They had nowhere to go but down in the west (holding almost all the seats there already) and the Liberals likely would have made significant gains there (without the scandal). And the Conservatives had been working hard at further distancing themselves from the rest of the country. Their successful campaign message has been, essentially, "We're not the Liberals" -- any time they say what they are, it hurts them. Any seats they get east of Manitoba are because of the Liberals' faults, not the Conservatives' strength.

Besides, if 60 seats in Ontario and 30 in Quebec for the Liberals is significantly too high, then you're predicting a Conservative majority, not minority.

As far as methodology, I checked the predictions of others, relying heavily on [] . I basically accepted their predictions for the ridings where they had a prediction -- they have a very impressive track record in past elections. At the time (last night), they had 40% of Ontario and almost 30% of Quebec as too close to call, but had called 23 seats for the Liberals in Quebec.

For the uncalled ridings, I searched out the opinion of those who live in the riding. Again, mainly on the comment boards on that site. Taking special note of those who admitted that the candidate they themselves supported was unlikely to win. Also important was the local support for the individual candidate. Often people still support their local MP, even when they're pissed at the government.

Now that I've looked at the site again, they've now called every seat in Quebec, 23 for the Libs and 52 for the Bloc. They're also down to 18 seats uncalled in Ontario and they're giving the Liberals 57 here now.

BTW, the Greens are running in every riding and are committed to doing so from now on. With the new campaign financing rules, they are certain to have much more money in future elections than they do now. So there's no reason to believe they won't be able to continue to achieve this.

As far as Conservative minority goes, I think that even if the Conservatives have more seats than the Liberals, it will be a Liberal-NDP coalition. You don't get to form the government just because your party has the most seats -- you get to form the government if you "have the confidence of the house." i.e. the support of the majority of MPs. And the sitting Prime Minister gets first crack at claiming this confidence.

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540845)

Besides, if my prediction was the same as what you were reading elsewhere, what would be the point of making it? :-)

Re:Ontario? (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9541684)

Too bad they didn't go back to when the Liberals first came back into office. The conservatives under Mulroney had 2 back-to-back terms (the first with the largest majority in Canadian history).

I remember telling everyone that the conservatives were going to lose official party status, and they all looked at me like I was nuts - there was no way that they were going to go from the party in power to les than 12 seats - but they then went on to lose all but 2.

Canadians have a habit of punishing the government for perceived corruption. There's nothihng different this time around. We have a government that's been in power too long, has had too many scandals, and is reduced to begging people to vote for the devil they know rather than the devil they don't.

Canadians don't like that. I'll stick with 60 for the Bloc in Quebec, and enough for the Conservatives in Ontaro for them to have more than the Liberals.

As to procedure and who will form the next government, Martin would be smart if he let the Conservatives do it, then, when they fall, pick up the pieces. This is what the Liberals did under Trudeau when Joe Clark was the leader of a conservative minority government.

Nevertheless, it is up to the Governor-General to determine who gets to form the next government - if the conservatives and bloc together have 155 seats, they will get the nod, as they will have the support of the majority of MPs, and it looks like a Conservative/Bloc government Monday night.

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9541828)

Nevertheless, it is up to the Governor-General to determine who gets to form the next government

I don't think that's entirely true. If the incumbent PM believes he has the confidence of the house, he gets the first chance to form the government and the GG can't give it to someone else until the incumbent's failed at it.

Re:Ontario? (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9541838)

or turned down the opportunity

Latest poll numbers - Saturday (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9540699)

Well, the latest poll numbers are now in, and they basically agree with what I've been saying:
Voters were asked: Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

* Liberals: 32 per cent (up one percentage point over a June 22 poll)
* Conservatives: 31 per cent (up three points)
* NDP: 17 per cent (up one point)
* Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 6 per cent (unchanged)
* Undecided: 7 per cent (down nine points)
* Other party: 2 per cent

The seat projection model predicts the following if the election were held based on the above:

* Conservatives: 115 - 119 seats
* Liberals: 99 - 103 seats
* Bloc Quebecois: 64 - 68
* NDP: 22 - 26

In Quebec, the Bloc has 48 per cent support, down five points, wile the Liberals have jumped six points to 29 per cent.

The high end of the seat projection model for the Bloc would give them a virtual monopoly as there are only 75 seats in Quebec.

"The seat models are more art than science, and that's what it's throwing off right now based on the math of the model," Bricker said. "Sixty-eight would be a historic victory for the Bloc. Even I am sitting back wondering if they'll be able to achieve that on election night, but we'll see what happens. They have a 20-some-odd point lead. They look very strong."
(From CTV web site [] (this link changes as stories are updated, so you might get something else later on - that's why I quoted the numbers)

Even if the BQ only takes 60 seats, that' s still enough to change your numbers to give the Conservatives a 3-seat victory over the Liberals.

This is one very strange election, for sure :-) Let's hope it's not so close that we have to wait a month to know who won like some other people had to :-)

Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9547518)

For the record, has now called every seat.

Liberal Party 122
Conservatives 104
N.D.P. 29
Bloc Québécois 52
Other 1

Liberal Party 66
Conservatives 32
N.D.P. 8

Liberal Party 23
Bloc Québécois 52

Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9549634)

And, for the record, my 2 cents :-)
The Liberals will get less than the 23 seats predicted for Quebec,

They will also get less than the 66 seats predicted for Ontario
Conservatives win more seats than Liberals

Oh, did you see the leader of the Green Party on the news last night? This guy is NOT getting my vote. He's supposed to be a motivational speaker (a "profession" I've always mistrusted), and it's painfully obvious why he's gotten into politics - he NEEDS to quit his day job. He can't speak! Well, I guess I'll spoil my ballot by voting NDP :-)

Have a nice day.

Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9549967)

He's also a former Tory. And the Green Party platfrom has adopted some alien-sounding ideas like "tax cuts create jobs"

Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9550200)

It's just that this guy actually started giggling on national tv last night when explaining how he was going to forward a copy of the green party's environmental plan to the leaders of the other parties. And um ... umm'ed so many times while saying it. Heck, even I've done a hell of a lot better in impromptu interviews on tv, without a podium, without a staged event.

There's an old saying that we get the government we deserve. WTF did we do to deserve this sorry state of affairs?

Well, catch you 2nite. Gotta go vote, then head into the office :-)

Maritimes (1)

turg (19864) | more than 10 years ago | (#9556391)

Whoah! The Liberals are gaining seats in the Maritime provinces. Three more seats than I gave them.

Re:Maritimes (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 10 years ago | (#9557524)

Just goes to show that scare tactics work.

The voters will remember this next time around ...

In the meantime, Layton gets to be the tail wagging the dog.

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