Journal turg's Journal: Election prediction 22
The spreadsheet has spoken. Here's my prediction. I'm giving the Liberals far more of Quebec than any other prediction I've seen. A surprise to me too, but I'm sticking with it.
Seats:
Liberal. . . . 121
Conservative . 108
NDP. . . . . .
BQ . . . . . .
independent. . . 1
And the popular vote:
Conservative . 29%
Liberal. . . . 35%
NDP. . . . . . 17%
BQ . . . . . . 12%
Green. . . . .
Other. . . . .
Breakdown by province or territory
. . . . . . . BC
Liberal. . . . 6 . . . 2 . 4
Conservative
NDP. . . . . . 5 . 1 . 5 . 4
BQ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Independent. . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
As long as... (Score:2, Funny)
Leave us Freedom-loving Americans here on the West coast alone!
Quebec ... (Score:2)
Me, I was going to park my vote with the bloc, but I found out that the greens are running here, so they're getting mine.
There's fewer than 20 seats on island of Montreal, and most of these aren't even safe liberal seats any more. 15 to 20 may be more realistic for the province as a whole, which, if your numbers are correct for the rest of the country, would
Ontario? (Score:3, Insightful)
In other words, I'm saying minority Conservative government.
Any way, I'm voting Green (it was a choice between NDP and BQ, which isn't much of a choice, until I saw that the Greens were running here). Who are you voting for?
Re:Ontario? (Score:1)
Mind you, as someone who grew up in the West, I don't know that I can be considered a regular Ontarian
-- YS
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
You could always eat more fibre :-)
... or come down here and have some poutine ... that'll get you going if the cholesterol doesn't kill you first.
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
BTW, I've got a long reply to Tom below, if you're interested.
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
Election-wise, I'm in the Willowdale riding in North York. FWIW, I've been seeing lots of Liberal signs in the neighbourhood, with an occasional Conservative sign here and there
-- T
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
The ratio of signs doesn't really represent the ratio of votes. People voting Liberal or Conservative don't see as much need to trumpet it as NDP or Green.
Signs (Score:2)
Speaking of signs
-- YS
Re:Signs (Score:2)
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
The vast majority of urban ridings in Ontario would never go to Stephen Harper, no matter what the Liberals do. For example, I'd be absolutely shocked if the Conservatives got as much as 10% of the vote in my riding (but it's neck-and-neck between the NDP and Liberals. It might even come down to a few votes. Beaches/East York -- watch for it). I think you greatly overestimate the Conservatives in Ontario. If it wasn't fo
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
I remember telling everyone that the conservatives were going to lose official party status, and they all looked at me like I was nuts - there was no way that they were going to go from the party in power to les than 12 seats - but they then went on to lose all but 2.
Canadians have a habit of punishing the governm
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
I don't think that's entirely true. If the incumbent PM believes he has the confidence of the house, he gets the first chance to form the government and the GG can't give it to someone else until the incumbent's failed at it.
Re:Ontario? (Score:2)
Latest poll numbers - Saturday (Score:2)
Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (Score:2)
Nationwide
Liberal Party 122
Conservatives 104
N.D.P. 29
Bloc Québécois 52
Other 1
Ontario
Liberal Party 66
Conservatives 32
N.D.P. 8
Quebec
Liberal Party 23
Bloc Québécois 52
Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (Score:2)
Oh, did you see the leader of the Green Party on the news last night? This guy is NOT getting my vote. He's supposed to be a motivational speaker (a "profession" I've always mistrusted), and it's painfully obvious why he's gotten into politics - he NEEDS to quit his day job. He can't speak! Wel
Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (Score:2)
Re:Latest poll numbers - Saturday (Score:2)
There's an old saying that we get the government we deserve. WTF did we do to deserve this sorry state of affairs?
Well, catch you 2nite. Go
Maritimes (Score:2)
Re:Maritimes (Score:2)
The voters will remember this next time around ...
In the meantime, Layton gets to be the tail wagging the dog.