Journal Penguinoflight's Journal: Expectations 1
With the first day of the new year past, everyone has high hopes for yet another 12 months. My Friend Degrees
set some pretty big predictions for this year, all seem practical in a perfect world. Our world isn't perfect though, so what kind of expectations are realistic, and which ones will be forgotton (or worse, laughed at) in the years to come?
I'm always interested in how people understand that human innovation increases at an exponential rate. Even so, the estimated rate always seems to be lower than what really happens. I'm sure there's a mathematical function to model this fact, but it probably wouldn't help anyone's understanding.
I think a more simple answer is belief. In the late 1800's people shunned innovations, thinking they would not work. In the end, 'horseless carriges', tractors, and eventually radios proved haters wrong. Now even minimum wage workers use fairly current technology either in their job, or in their home. People have been overoptimistic about new technology probably since the 1950's.
How long until this population gets apathetic about new gizmos?
I'm always interested in how people understand that human innovation increases at an exponential rate. Even so, the estimated rate always seems to be lower than what really happens. I'm sure there's a mathematical function to model this fact, but it probably wouldn't help anyone's understanding.
I think a more simple answer is belief. In the late 1800's people shunned innovations, thinking they would not work. In the end, 'horseless carriges', tractors, and eventually radios proved haters wrong. Now even minimum wage workers use fairly current technology either in their job, or in their home. People have been overoptimistic about new technology probably since the 1950's.
How long until this population gets apathetic about new gizmos?
I'll go out on a limb. (Score:2)
Two years ago, I think it was, someone forecasted that computers would be as smart as people by 2040. By 2050, they would be 100 times smarter than we are.
Assuming we are smart enough to program them to follow our orders without fail....
I imagine our lives will become rather like that of a doctor in his office. Today's doctors hire a whole staff of nurses, receptionists, and clerks / transcriptionists. Their job is to keep that doctor 100%