Journal yintercept's Journal: Exit Polls
I am listening to yet another assembly of talking heads on TV baffled that the exit polls did not match the election results.
Obviously, the Republicans cheated by burning the ballots cast by black people.
Seems to me that someone should state the most likely explanation to the phenomena. In 2004, Republicans were more likely to lie to pollers than Democrats. In 2004, Democratic supporters were optimistic about unseating a war time incumbant candidate—a very difficult task.
Many people had Bush pegged as the known and possibly lesser of two evils, but would be unwilling to admit such in polite company.
Folks on the west coast sensing that Kerry was ahead were also a bit more likely to vote Bush.
I agree that there are serious concerns with voting technology, but I would not take an exit poll as a more legitimate source of information than the the vote count. I am quite sure that a large number of people lie on the polls.
BTW, I was undecided even as I walked into the voting booth. When I think back on voting day, I suddenly can't remember how I voted. Not liking either candidate, I generally vote for a third party. I do remember voting late in the day. I was thinking at the time that Kerry was winning; so there is a chance I voted for Bush. Being in Utah, my vote is nothing but a futile gesture anyway.
Regardless, I would have lied on the exit poll.
Obviously, the Republicans cheated by burning the ballots cast by black people.
Seems to me that someone should state the most likely explanation to the phenomena. In 2004, Republicans were more likely to lie to pollers than Democrats. In 2004, Democratic supporters were optimistic about unseating a war time incumbant candidate—a very difficult task.
Many people had Bush pegged as the known and possibly lesser of two evils, but would be unwilling to admit such in polite company.
Folks on the west coast sensing that Kerry was ahead were also a bit more likely to vote Bush.
I agree that there are serious concerns with voting technology, but I would not take an exit poll as a more legitimate source of information than the the vote count. I am quite sure that a large number of people lie on the polls.
BTW, I was undecided even as I walked into the voting booth. When I think back on voting day, I suddenly can't remember how I voted. Not liking either candidate, I generally vote for a third party. I do remember voting late in the day. I was thinking at the time that Kerry was winning; so there is a chance I voted for Bush. Being in Utah, my vote is nothing but a futile gesture anyway.
Regardless, I would have lied on the exit poll.
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