Microsoft's XO Laptop Strategy 242
gbulmash writes "Microsoft is spending a 'non-trivial' amount of money to get Windows XP working on the OLPC project's XO laptop. But why? Despite the conjecture that the Linux-based XO could convince millions of people in the developing world that they don't need Windows and build a huge base of developers for Linux, there still remains the question of how Microsoft would convince owners of XO laptops to buy and install Windows XP over the functional Linux-based OS already on it. It's doubtful that Microsoft could encourage or coerce Negroponte to put XP on the machine, so whose arms will they twist?"
Two Possible Reasons (Score:5, Insightful)
The first is the driving force behind all of Microsoft's actions (and, in fact, almost everyone's): money.
They are developing this so that people can pay an extra $20 to get XP on the OLPC. I assume they will have to drop the regular license price of $90 to something not one half the cost of the laptop. Well, for common sense reasons and also the fact that it destroys the idea of a cheap laptop for kids.
The second idea is that they've finally caved. They finally recognized that releasing an XP shell for free (but not open source) will guaranty their survival because it will allow the poor, the desperate & the cheap to still run windows and possibly alleviate piracy. The idealists like us will still use open source but for practicality purposes many will go along with this. Vista will still cost you an arm and a leg but it will be shinier and flashier and souped up compared to this shell of XP. This will also ensure that the children will grow up accustomed to the broken model of Windows and any development they do will be Win32.
So, I see this as in all likelihood a cross between the two above. They will release Windows XP trimmed down but it will only run if it recognizes the hardware as XO (to prevent you and I from using it to run an MMO only on Windows without the operating system or SVCHost process taking up 30% of my resources). So it's free on OLPCs but still costs fat cat Americans & Europeans moneys. They retain some profit and are seeding themselves into the minds of youths that will be responsible for saving their countries from third world status.
It's the same strategy they used with their "Academic Alliance" software giving to universities & the not so strange donations that Gates oversees when a village in a third world nation receives computers and technical support worth thousands of USD.
Microsoft's interests are their survival and money.
Nicholas Negroponte should be thrilled that Microsoft is already recognizing his success and I wish to send him my gratitude and admiration as so far he has been the only person in this picture with purely good motives. Also all the unnamed developers that have made this possible whether they be employed to do it or not.
Don't get me wrong, it's great that the world's largest software maker is fighting to give more options to people in need. I'm just afraid that they're going to try to maneuver putting their software on instead of the Linux kernel and we'll have to deal with Windows/Internet Explorer's horrible insecurities on a global level.
maybe it is simple (Score:2)
I Like Your Ideas But They Are Altruistic (Score:3, Interesting)
... and because all orders are bulk orders in the millions, maybe they could cut the price dramatically.
See, your problem is that you're thinking like a human being with a heart and soul who cares for his fellow man. Well, we have this thing called 'the internet' and it allows all software to be distributed 'in bulk' to everyone using the internet. I like your explanation and agree that that is how they should look at it. But it's obviously not because they could have treated everyone in the world as 'bulk' when they released their latest piece of MS Office software. Imagine downloading it to the tune o
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For values of "everyone" that are limited to broadband, yes.
For people on the edge of a mesh network that is operational provided none of the twelve intermediate XO laptops are switched off en-route to the next-but-one village that has a single 9600bps dial-up... no.
Cheap and Ubiquitous FTW! (Score:2)
"That's no Storm Worm..."
MS will give it away (Score:5, Insightful)
And they aren't going to aim at Negroponte to pre-install this instead of Linux. They will aim at convincing the governments where these laptops will eventually be shipped to, to get the government to demand that MS's software be installed so they can interoperate with the government's newly installed MS server software.
They can't let a generation of children, eager to learn to use computers to get a better life, learn how to use and program something other than Microsoft, and to know that the majority of computers around them can run something other than Microsoft software and run well.
Just like heroin, the first hit is free, but you pay dearly for the rest of your life. And you life sucks once you take that hit.
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Re:I Like Your Ideas But They Are Altruistic (Score:5, Funny)
If Microsoft was smart... (Score:3, Interesting)
Then they'd fund an underground source (think of how they funded SCO) to develop an easy one-click port from OLPC Linux to Windows, keeping all valuable user files in tact.
Then the underground source would accidentally leak it on the P2P networks, and the rouge pirate underprivileged kids would think they are "sticking it to the man" and get
Re:Two Possible Reasons (Score:5, Interesting)
No doubt Microsoft would try to create license terms to prohibit such usage, but without cooperation from the hardware designers in the OLPC project, I'm not sure they will have any technical ability to lock-out their Windows XP version from being run in virtual machines.
It doesn't fully emulate HE (Score:4, Informative)
Perceived Value (Score:2)
Same with Linux. It came with the computer, and it's free anyway. Microsoft is going to make a HUGE amount of money selling XP to people w
One more (Score:2)
This would be the precusror to more Windows named systems with a new common core. Not his first generation attempt but aiming more at the types of devices which MS expects to take off in the upcoming nations of the world.
Personally I think the OLPC is a waste of money, more should be ded
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Microsofts biggest fear is people will learn that computers don't have to be based on windows. Once that happens, they can't sell licenses to business and government, because the people won't only know windows so the businesses won't get it.
Sean
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Microsofts biggest fear is people will learn that computers don't have to be based on windows. Once that happens, they can't sell licenses to business and government, because the people won't only know windows so the businesses won't get it.
I couldn't agree more. I've written a more extended assessment [livejournal.com] elsewhere, but it really comes down to this:
Microsoft has no other ambition than blocking access to any other operating system. They want Windows everywhere, all the time. Their entire strategy is contingent on the ubiquity of the Windows platform. The XO laptop is one of the most significant threats to their hegemony, and for once they're forced to fight on someone else's turf. Having to eat crow and announce XP support for the XO laptop is
Re:Two Possible Reasons (Score:5, Interesting)
Absolutely. But I think both of your ideas are off the mark (though you start to get it a bit later). The goal, here, probably isn't to make money selling Windows to XO users. In fact, I'll bet dollars to donuts their plan is to give away their port for free. No, the goal is to get people familiarized with Windows products. Remember, the developing world today will be the markets of the future for MS. Having an entire generation of children exposed to Windows could be a very good thing for Microsoft when those economies begin to mature.
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"more options to people in need" (Score:2)
Yep! That's their mission!
In other news, Global Warming benefits public health! [salon.com] according to White House flack.
It's sorta like this (Score:5, Insightful)
The way it works is like this: (very nearly) everyone uses product X (where X can be Excel, Word, whatever) with its proprietary format Y. At home, at work, etc. The effects are, in no particular order:
1. That it's taken for granted that almost everyone already knows how to work with X, but you might need to train them to use the competitors' equivalent. This is a very big factor when corporations decide to standardize on something. And, at least subconsciously, it's then a factor in what people use at home. You've already used or seen X used at work, so there's no point in wasting your time learning something else instead.
2. Because of 1, knowing how to use program X suddenly is a "skill" you might need at work. You know chances are overwhelming that, unless you're a linux admin or such, the PC at your next job will have X installed on it, and you'll be expected to know how to use it. It might even be an explicit requirement in the job ad. (Remember: training them is expensive, so you might as well hire those who already have the skills you want.)
So the maths already becomes screwed up. If product X costs, say, 500$, it already paid for itself with interest if having that skill saves you even a month of looking for a new job. Or if it lets you move to a job that pays as little as 50$ a month more than your current one, it paid for itself in 10 months flat. "But some other equivalent is free" just lost a lot of appeal in that context.
3. Because "everyone" has program X, thus they "all" can (and do) use its proprietary format Y. (See the recent linked story about even most OOo users saving in
And especially for a company, "we don't do Y files" is a big no-no. It doesn't take more than one contract lost with a big customer because you told him you don't want to install Word, to make a bigger loss than buying a retail copy of it for every computer.
This is somewhat easier to get around, since nowadays OOo does a decent job of reading _most_ office files. But, still, the more it gets taken for granted, the more you're expected to be a 100% flawless emulation, down to the 65536 bug. And it gets pointed as a show-stopper if one guy's spreadsheet uses some obscure old function or macro that you don't emulate 100% accurately.
4. Even more importantly, well, you can't have a monopoly on interchangeable separate pieces. That kind of a market can be attacked one product at a time. You want every product to depend on every other product. You want people to say, "yeah, Linux is nice, but does it run the latest version of Word?" and the like.
But to cut this long rant shorter, again, it all boils down to ubiquity. It boils down to the next manager doing any purchasing thinking "naah, _everyone_ knows how to use Windows and Word, but we'd need to retrain everyone if we installed Linux and OOo."
And in that aspect, raising a whole bloody generation of Indians and Chinese on Linux and OOo, is probably something that scares the seven shades of shit out of MS. It's the kind of thing that could lead to "nah, if we're offshoring there and/or importing workers from there anyway, we'd Linux and OOo are for free and we'd need to retrain them for Windows and MS Office." Or worse yet, to realizing, "hmm, everyone there uses ODF, don't they? I guess it would cost us more to force them to accept
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The first is the driving force behind all of Microsoft's actions (and, in fact, almost everyone's): money.
I agree with many of your points, especially about MS developing Windows X2OP to run only on XO laptops and use it to seed the future for "real" Windows.
My guess for an approach would be to simply give away the XO version (they could license it to a country for a fee that includes tech support and allow anyone from that country to run it on an
Also (Score:2)
The price of hardware keeps falling, not just computer hardware. The 25 inch TV set (sans remote, mind you) I bought in 1978 cost me $600, and that was when my wife would take $25 to the grocery store and come home with
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Remember, the XO is supposed to be sold in lots of a million or more. MS can wine and dine the person placing that order, and try to convince them that having their children growing up knowing Windows is actually a good thing for the children and the local economy. T
I see two different possibilities (Score:2)
2) there may be a perceived demand of integration between these laptops and the governments purchasing them.
Oxymoron (Score:2)
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(2) The 90s called, they want their Windows back. Seriously, Win2K and later only have stability problems with bad hardware and bad drives. The former will cause issues with ANY os, and the latter with many (including Linux, sorry)
(3) The OLPC is not intended to be a server or always on, your criticism is based on an extremely flawed presumption.
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Re:Oxymoron (Score:4, Informative)
Source: XBox team official MSDN Blog [msdn.com].
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Should machines be expected to crash ever? Should the amount of time they are running be a factor at all?
And while I'll agree that Win2k was a vast improvement and WinXP was good too, the crashing and the other stuff is still a normal and ordinary part of running Windows on the desktop AND on the server. For windows, crashing is normal. For everyone else, it's ghastly.
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Provided every component is made properly, no.
I expect my machines not to crash. So far, the biggest letdown due to OS has been with the 9x Windows. After that? Linux. Sorry, 2K and XP have had better stability on my machines than Linux (ignoring bad hardware).
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I've had plenty of windows machines that have *NEVER* crashed (likewise, I have had them crash), and I have had Linux machines crash (most recent was a Ubuntu machine installed about 6 months ago, was playing Boson at the time).
Where I work, we do have hundreds of machines with each of Windows, Linux, hpux, and AIX. The only catastrophic failures? When a hard drive goes, or the power goes and the generato
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My home windows machine, when it was my primary machine, did a whole lot of stuff (games, video editing, photo editing, web development server, etc.) without crashing. And my primary machine always gets a UPS and is not rebooted excepting a require updates (behind a good firewall, and with full control of the network, I was a touch sloppy with windows updates, but since I'm paranoid wi
I guess (Score:5, Insightful)
Sure they'd make a loss, but wouldn't it be worth it just to secure dominance?
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I believe where they wil make the money is in school licensing and in the overall fight against the Naked PC, boht of which has help them maintain market share. The former is the most important. If the a machine can run MS Windows, then it is my impression that under standard licensing it is assumed to run windows and is charged against. if a school changed to a mixed X0/M
Finally MS has to fight an included OS (Score:5, Insightful)
Finally we can see if windows success is due in a large part to it being included in most computer purchases.
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Of course, there will always be people who will do it. But I'd bet such people would be in the minority on this one, especially given the target market. Here's a fact: everybody needs an OS to do useful work on their computer. No one needs Windows. The fact is, despite what some might say, Linux is perfectly useable for the
So the OLPC laptop will be getting . . . (Score:2, Funny)
But think of the advantages (Score:4, Funny)
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I don't think the presence of Windows affects that...
I can't wait (Score:2, Interesting)
Let's see. Three options.
That's a little tongue-in-cheek, but this can't end too well for them from my. This will also prove that the wee little power of the OLPC (compared to consumer computers in the US, etc) is enough for anyone... or it will run like a dog and turn off large chunks of these "customers" to their software.
Nothin
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Well that's just idiotic. Are you saying Linux is shovelware?
Personally, I'm willing to bet that, if they do get Windows running on the OLPC, they *will* give it away for free. Odds are it will have to be fairly limited, anyway, given the limitations of the XO, so there's no danger of it biting into their regular revenue streams, and it's a great way for MS to get Windows in the hands of a developing world. thus familiarizing them with
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Linux doesn't have the stifling EULA restrictions and technical hobbling that make "emerging market" versions of Windows into shovelware.
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"Now MS will have to compete against a working, installed OS that is on the laptops, based on their own merit. Since Linux can be free, including Windows will increase the price, and might not be as usable."
and to your comments, I hope that courts will QUICKLY rule this as "dumping" by microsoft. I fear, though, that the courts might be swayed into thinking that "microsoft is just protecting its COMMERCIAL turf. Since Linux generally is not SOLD commercially parallel to ms and other computer products, th
Re:I can't wait (Score:4, Informative)
Why would they sell Windows? (Score:4, Insightful)
Buy and install? Why would these developing nations have to buy Windows? Microsoft could intend to give it to them for free. Because they're so fluffy and altruistic and gosh-darn-nice of course, there'd be no ulterior motive whatsoever.
Honest.
Windows *XP*? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Windows *XP*? (Score:4, Funny)
sure it'll run Vista... you just have to duct-tape this $1000 laptop to it
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Microsoft will tell you a lot of good things about Vista. One thing that even they won't claim is that it will run on super cheap hardware.
FUD (Score:2, Insightful)
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Except Nick is a US citizen and can be held accountable for acts in foreign countries even if it is legal in that country and not in the US. This is why citizen of the US can be arrested for sleeping with little boys in Southeast asia, murdering people in Africa, and so on.
Crack Dealers (Score:3, Insightful)
Nah.. (Score:2)
It's designed to torpedo contracts for XO's. Microsoft buys legislators who control the project and can legitimately say "but it's XP compatible." Bingo. IF the deal is done, it's done with Microsoft's OS because they've paid enough legislators off to have the project change direction. End of XO's Linux story and the XO people will be generally powerless to stop them.
Let's say for a minute th
If I was Ballmer (Score:4, Insightful)
I think a Microsoft employee has already said this about China: Installed pirated copies of Windows help Microsoft more than installed copies of GNU/Linux.
It's the same in the drug business: you get the first cigaret gratis, and once you are addicted, you gotta pay...
what's the point? (Score:3, Interesting)
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They did consider Vista....... (Score:4, Funny)
makes sense (Score:2, Insightful)
This is even more an issue, as with the free versions of Visual studio, MS is allowing people to learn how to develop for MS platforms for free. MS has always believed strongly in the "we
Whose arm to twist? (Score:5, Insightful)
- Microsoft can pitch the whole "Windows is the standard, and you need to prepare your children to compete on the global market", suggesting that anything but Windows is going to cripple the children once they use anything other than the laptops. The usual FUD.
- Microsoft can have side negotiations about bulk deals on Microsoft software for the government. Discounts won't cost MS that much, but they could represent a decent chunk of change to some of the countries that are looking to be involved in this program.
That makes for an easy point of attack, and allow Microsoft to subvert the XO laptop scheme quite effectively. Essentially they just go straight to the middleman with a combination of FUD and bribes, with the result that many of the laptops end uyp training the kids in Windows.I think this is impossible.... (Score:2)
Would Microsoft's PR people be able to cope with the bad publicity that would bring them? I doubt it. They'd be caving after a couple of weeks when the developed world revolts against them (which I certainly would).
Suspicious behaviour? (Score:2)
It's a backhanded vote of confidence. (Score:4, Interesting)
Since there has been a computer industry, the most important place to keep an eye on is what I call "the high end of the low end". that's the place where computers are being stretched into new applications they didn't address before. First comes the killer application, then comes the figuring out how to steal application domains from the mid range.
Any place that is going to have these devices already has all the conventional laptops and desktops it can support. These devices are creating a new class of low end devices, which leaves the machines currently running windows in the mid-range: the abode of dinosaurs.
Some day Microsoft may face a government in a place that has millions of these devices in the hands of the populace, that may consider it a reasonable idea to migrate away from Windows because of that. Instead, Microsoft can make them a proposition: we'll cut you a deal on Windows for the OLPC so you can "upgrade" them to a real operating system. You will bring all those people on this toy operating system into parity with the rest of the world, which makes you a hero. And you get to do those major IT projects you are considering in Visual Studio 2010 instead of having to learn Python.
The exact details of what they have in mind may be quite different; it may even be that they don't really have anything specific in mind. But Microsoft is a company that believe is technology; thus they take the possibility of OLPC's having a transformative effect on societies seriously. The possibility that OLPC can change the rules of the game. On the off chance it does, then the money spent to port Windows to the device will be a small price to pay to have a hand in the game. If it doesn't, they still take away knowledge about porting their platform to more resource constrained devices, so if anybody makes a splash in that area, they'll be prepared with an answer.
Yep (Score:2)
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Boiled down to its essentials, their strategy is to never, ever underestimate the importance an emerging platform. They respond rapidly with PR and money until engineering can reach the fabled "3.0" credible release. Even if the ultimate result is that the market for the new class of devices stagnates and innovation grinds to a halt, as it did in the PDA market, they've done their job. They've retained control of the single most
Makes perfect sense (Score:2)
Considering the millions TV advertising costs and it's only reaching people already familiar with their brand for 10-20seconds, this is pretty good value for MS.
Personally I'm not a fan of the OLPC's app
You don't get it... (Score:2)
You just don't get it.
The idea behind the XO isn't to be able to run "standard" applications. The idea is to create a whole new ecosystem based around the needs of eight year old children.
The principle points addressed by the XO are communication (instant messaging) and replacement of paper school books.
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2: That was my point! Why go to so much effort to make the OLPC a coding machine at the expense of compatibility when kids won't use it for coding.
3: A vast amount aren't but significant numbers of apps out there can be useful for school kids. It's better to have more options for additional functionality than fewer.
Some Pro-Microsoft Reasons (Score:3, Interesting)
2. Despite the common perception on Slashdot, a lot of relevant Microsoft employees are smart, interesting, caring people who might just find getting their OS to work on this platform a tantallizing challenge.
3. The work performed can be used down the road for similar devices. So, even if Windows XP doesn't materialize on OLPC, they can show off how it can be done for other, similar, vendors. (Isn't the Acer research program and a number of other companies' research programs indicating that they are investigating computers in this price bracket with similar features?)
4. The Gates' foundation has had a HUGE impact on third world countries in many, many areas. We already know that the OLPC turned down Apple OS X because it proprietary components -- so no way will Windows XP be a default. But if Gates' foundation purchased the devices themselves (in quantities of many millions), installed Windows XP "OLPC Edition" and gave them away... it would be an interesting combination of altruism and self-servicing. Too many arguments on both sides to list them for this article.
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5) the OLPC not being "capable" of running Windows makes Windows look bad : a fat system that wastes resources etc. They probably want to show that there OS can run on the OLPC and is therefore not technically inferior to Linux.
So they have a few objective reasons to do that without being ashamed of it.
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5) the OLPC not being "capable" of running Windows makes Windows look bad : a fat system that wastes resources etc. They probably want to show that there OS can run on the OLPC and is therefore not technically inferior to Linux.
Whose Arms Will They Twist? (Score:2)
Governments'. Corrupt governments' arms. Ones that crave money, fame, and other gratification from relationships with large (generally corrupt) companies.
The one reason for Windows isn't there... (Score:2)
I don't think anyone's going to mod an XO with a Geforce 7600, so what's the point?
It's XP, but not as we know it, Jim (Score:5, Insightful)
You almost have to do that, as there's no hard drive (you'll need a flash file system instead)
and minimal RAM, and a non-standard display. As a matter of fact, XO doesn't look anything like the
platform MS is used to running on.
The OS Microsoft finally provides may look like XP to the user,
but I suspect it's going to be more like a highly modified WinCE inside.
They'll give the OS away...after all, it will only run on the XO...and advertise how
they're helping to educate the developing world's children -- the Microsoft way.
And the reason they're going to all this effort?
I think MS sees this as a strategic move. OLPC potentially delivers a pretty
large number of young eyeballs. It would be a *very* Bad Thing for their
first exposure to computers to involve a friendly penguin wearing the label "Linux".
Much better for future MS sales that they see the Windows logo.
Exactly what OLPC needs - a real operating system (Score:2, Funny)
Kudos to Microsoft for supporting this platform, and hopefully Classmate PC [classmatepc.com] will be able to bridge this gap with a real system. Certainly the OLPC business model is exciting and I think given the opportunity to buy a student this kind of computer would be som
a real operating system .. (Score:2)
How is it proprietary, it runs on Redhat, anyone can write to the specs. The interface specs are published here [laptop.org], so anyone can write to it, how does that make it proprietary. How does the OLPC not have a real operating system. It runs a striped down version of Red Hat linux on the Sugar OS [slashdot.org]">OLPC Human Interface.
As for a standard GUI, once kids have used a GUI then they can quickly adapt to the
If Microsoft really does... (Score:2)
The XO is designed with both hardware and software specially built for each other. I would bet that even if MS could make XP run on it, it would take ages to make all the hardware features work (mesh, changing resolution display, etc).
But the real question is: How would people react. They *know* that XP runs worse on those laptops, and that Microsoft's only
I'll tell you who. (Score:2)
That would be the various ministers of education and/or commerce or any other official in the various countries that the OLPC folks would like to import who have veto power over the project. And it won't be an arm twist, it will be a fully stocked offshore bank account.
After a time, when these countries administrations discover the fraud, these (now former) officials will have to make a
"Competitors" (Score:2, Interesting)
At no point does the article discuss the nature of Linux, nor the inherent advantages (and disadvantages, since it's "objective" news) of open-source.
While techies are at least familiar with the concepts of FLOSS, there's still a long way to go to get the mainstream to understand
I am in 2 minds ... (Score:2)
However: the XO comes with a bundled OS: Linux. Hmmmm, to be consistent should I not argue that the consumer should be able to choose what OS they want on their XO ?
The above is a matter of principle, not which is better or whatever.
I still don't know what I should think .... help please!
MS will target school administrators (Score:2)
But that marketing model still feels like
MS made a realization (Score:2)
Twisting Arms (Score:2)
Answer: the governments of countries in South America, Asia, Africa, and elsewhere that will be buying the machines.
For the EU and US mostly.... (Score:3, Insightful)
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Windows Tax (Score:2)
kind of ass-backwards logic, but it's not the least logical argument they've ever used to support their monopoly position.
The real reason (Score:3, Insightful)
This means that they can be stolen and resold, thereby destroying the program.
Absolutely no chance (Score:3, Interesting)
Imagine trying to start MS Office Accounting 2007. It installs SQL-Server as a service just so it can run. That brings my boot time to something like 4 minutes on my 1 GB memory, Pentium-M machine. My machine thrashes just booting! I'm sure the rest of MS Office is just as bloated.
Trying to run my copy of XP in a virtual machine under linux makes the machine thrash for 15 minutes before settling down to running REALLY slowly. They're attempting the impossible, no worries.
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The XO foundation might not let them (Score:2)
How long would Microsoft's famous PR people be able to spin their destroying the charitable XO project? Not very long...
Nope. The XO isn't a "problem" which can be solved by throwing chairs around.
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As mentioned elsewhere in this thread imagine what MS could gain by saying:
"OK, Vista is our flagship product. XP is our old class of product that's stable, but we aren't going to be developing new capabilities for it anymore. So from now on XP is free. If you like XP, you'll probably LOVE Vista, and there will be a nice upgrade path for you for a small fee."
What happens if MS offers up an OS for free too? Sure they stop making money on OS licenses. But if people are locke
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the world's users are theirs. period. that's just the way it is.
any computing device without windows is just taking from them what is rightfully theirs.
just ask em
Okay, let me be the devil's advocate here... (Score:2)
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Increase their contributions to the Republican Party? or Call Dubya directly?