IT Jobs To Drop In 2009 393
ruphus13 writes "A new Goldman Sachs IT report recently released states that IT jobs will be dramatically reduced in 2009, starting with contract and offshore developers. From the article: 'Sharp reductions likely in contract staff, professional services and hardware, and almost no investment in cloud computing.' The article goes on to say 'The CIOs indicated that server virtualization and server consolidation are their No. 1 and No. 2 priorities. Following these two are cost-cutting, application integration, and data center consolidation. At the bottom of the list of IT priorities are grid computing, open-source software, content management and cloud computing (called on-demand/utility computing in the survey) — less than 2% of the respondents said cloud computing was a priority.' Postulating a 'pointy haired boss' problem, an analyst goes on to say, '[Grid computing, Open Source and Cloud computing] require a technical understanding to get to their importance. I don't think C-level executives and managers have that understanding.' But they do control the paychecks ..."
Duh. (Score:5, Insightful)
A lot of IT is an expense without adequate ROI. Huge IT support staffs were a consequence of poor products, badly implemented systems, a glut of unnecessary purchases, etc. While some IT functions will always need on-site support, better-designed systems and software (including middleware) should make it possible to reduce IT staffing costs.
Think of all the other functions that have disappeared over the past century: typing pools, filing clerks, huge mail rooms. The armies of help desk types will go the same way.
Re:Duh. (Score:5, Insightful)
One of the age old problems is the assumption that IT for most companies is simply capital expenditure. ROI is hard to measure for IT for most companies.
Picture a DR situation where an office is lost to fire. If the company didn't invest in adequate protection then that company is now often out of business losing entire client databases or even contracts. Now proper DR would not only save all your data so you can keep doing business but potentially you might not even have downtime as is the case with banks. This is of course federally mandated but the company I work for is a private entity and practices the same philosophy.
Then of course comes the automation, once a task is automated it is no longer reflected in ROI even though the system is still in place years later supporting it.
Course I'm one guy managing over 40 servers across five sites so I don't foresee a reduction in IT staffing anytime soon for this company.
You're right though, tight times means you spend the extra time to finish your deployments instead of investing in new projects. This means your environment becomes more cohesive and the new stuff later will snap in easier since everything will be well documented by then.
Consider the downtime a nice roadblock allowing you to audit everything you currently have to make sure you are using everything efficiently.
Virtualization for the win, we'll utilize our hardware more effectively while increasing functionality.
Re:Duh. (Score:5, Funny)
For most industries other than software, IT is like utility, telecom, logistics, etc. I had no idea I was getting into janitorial business when I went into this field. Well, beats accounting - we also go to jail less frequently. :-)
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You weren't getting into janitorial business when you went into this field - it has just evolved that way over time (and naturally... as more and more people used computers then it was bound to become a utility).
Re:Duh. (Score:5, Interesting)
Too true mate - a company which I'm affiliated with but shall not name is going through a reorg right now. The reorg is surprisingly a good idea, and well-executed by the executives. However, I heard a middle manager explain it to a bunch of interns as "profit centers are called that because they generate profits, while cost centers only serve to drag a company down. That's why we're trying to minimize our cost centers as much as possible."
What made it extra funny is that a lot of the money freed up by the reorg is going into *new* "cost centers", and this middle manager himself works for a "cost center". I myself work for a "profit center", but honestly perform more of a functional role.
It's necessary to draw lines somewhere, and have accountants and accounting, but the fact of the matter is that some things are inherently hard to quantify. You look at the numbers but go with your gut.
Re:Duh. (Score:4, Funny)
Are you implying causality, or simply correlation?
Re:Duh. (Score:4, Funny)
Enron, and WorldCom might have had an ROI on the accounting department.
Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Insightful)
Seriously....I look in the paper and it's filled with ads for drivers. That and health care professionals. And as I would rather stick a pencil in my eye than work in health care, I figure my misanthropic ways would be better shifted toward driving.
I'm 46 and have to basically totally switch careers as there are just aren't any jobs in my profession anymore. It's over saturated. I hardly ever see an ad for IT or anything related in my area. As scary as it sounds, changing directions even this far into life may not be a bad idea.
Even with fuel prices sky-high, trucking will be with us for a while as lets face it....everything within your eyesight right now reading these words was all delivered or transported some way via a truck (unless you're looking out your window at a tree or something).
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Funny)
And as I would rather stick a pencil in my eye than work in health care,
Keeping up the high demand for health care professionals since 2008!
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:4, Funny)
let's see;
never being home ..check ... check ... check ...check
illiterate CB Radio Banter
wonderful stereo type (see above)
spending nights on the side of the road
being able to work in your uderoos ...pricelss
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:4, Funny)
Not to mention a truck stop sloppy joe for dinner and truck stop sloppy ho for dessert!
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:4, Funny)
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uderoos
Don't the teats get in your way when you go to change gears?
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Surviving in a saturated market requires standing out in some way. If you succeed at it enough, you'll be surprised at how many recruiters will come to you (assuming you have a web presence, of course... but if you're in the IT field, you should). Now, I'm only half your age and consequently at a much earlier stage of my career, but I don't see why this wouldn't generalize.
But do what you feel is best. If you think truck driving is a good career, great!
Also, healthcare is not only direct clinical practice.
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Insightful)
There are ads for these positions because:
1.They have a lot of turnover.
2. Newspaper ads attract certain industries. For you, you should be looking at dice, careerbuilder, etc.
Employers dont really expect IT people to be looking at dead tree medium for jobs.
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Funny)
And make sure there is no misunderstanding or spelling errors - too many employers are willing to pay *weakly*.
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As a 47 year human, 28 year vet of the IT industry I can feel your pain. However, the road is long and he who lives in the mind can easily go batters on the mind numbing crawl that is the highway.
If possible, reinvent the skills and sell the hell out of the fact you got more life experience then those snot nosed zombies coming out of college factories (with minimal respect to current graduates). If that does not work,
Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Interesting)
However, the road is long and he who lives in the mind can easily go batters on the mind numbing crawl that is the highway.
Tell it like it is.
I just quit driving for a living 2 weeks ago. You get a fair bit of abuse on the road, and after a while it gets very difficult to externalise it. So I was going mad, bit by bit. Can't live with 'em, can't kill 'em. So the best thing for all concerned is to stop doing it.
Currently trying to "re-invent" my old IT skills, but I'm a long way back. Better than driving though. It may be better in the states, at least on long runs.
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Weird. I'm 24 and working as an IT manager, but I used to think that if I was going to do anything else, it would be driving (either delivery, or possibly part of the Royal Logistics Corps) because driving is one of the few other things that I enjoy other than computers. Any abuse I have ever had on the roads was due to my own (mis)conduct - apart from one strange time a couple of months ago where this guy came flying onto a roundabout in front of me, and immediately looked over and gave me the finger as if
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Re:Truck driving school here I come! (Score:5, Informative)
When you say looking for IT jobs in an 'ad', are you meaning the local newspaper? They're not there anymore. Try monster.com, or other places. There are tons of jobs out there in IT across the country. Ok...maybe in your particular city...you might not find lots of opportunities, but, the days of staying put for a job for life are gone, in just about any field. You may have to broaden your search and be willing to relocate.
If you have 46+ years experience...look into contracting!! Good bill rates...and if you play it right, you can work 6-12 months...take off for 3-4 months and enjoy life.
If you don't wanna work indie at first (if you do PLEASE incorporate, look into a "S" corp and the tax benefits of it), look into working for a contract house. YOu are a W2 employee for them, and they send you out to gigs. This is a great way to ease into the thing. Also, if you get lucky...maybe you can get into a DoD gig this way...and get a clearance. You get that...it will definitely help you get future jobs.
Don't give up...there are IT jobs and money to be made at it, but, you may need to change your views on how and where you work.
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"I'm 46 and have to basically totally switch careers..."
If you have 46+ years experience...look into contracting!!
He's 46 years old. He probably has 40 years of experience, tops.
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Seriously....I look in the paper and it's filled with ads for drivers. That and health care professionals. And as I would rather stick a pencil in my eye than work in health care, I figure my misanthropic ways would be better shifted toward driving.
You're an IT professional, and you're looking for employment opportunities in THE NEWSPAPER...?
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Re: Contracting:
Also, a lot of big companies do hiring freezes because of the economy, but then... still have things they need to get done and end up hiring contractors to do it.
Stupid, but there you have it.
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There is also the case of a maturing market, There is less of a motive to keep producing new apps that basicly do the same thing. So if it does the job in one second and a new version can do it in 1/1000th of a second, the speed difference doesn't matter and give value worth the cost vs. the last update where that one second wait took 15 minutes. Most (custom) application that businesses use are not that intensive that take advantage of the newest and greatest. So as these apps mature and become common use
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You shouldn't be so proud of the fact that you're a stronger flavor of douche than someone else.
Re:Duh. I'll answer, directly my man (on degrees) (Score:4, Insightful)
E.G.#1-> I remember telling a bunch of network techs, or rather, first asking them:
"Do you know how to find the midpoint of an array, without knowing the total # of elements"
& not a one of them could...
We had this kid in my research lab who was a fabulous hacker and pretty solid scripter, but didn't know what a for loop was. One of the best programmers I know is self taught (which is the way a lot of people got into the field)). On the flip side, I've got classmates who are so lost on fundamentals that they don't know what an object is (seriously, one professor gives that question on exams and it kills students.)
I've seen far too many people get through their degrees through a combination of cheating, relying on partners, and cutting and pasting code to really trust it. One of the worst programmers I know has a 4.0; he writes hacks that work well enough, but that I wouldn't trust anywhere near production code (mostly 'cause I've seen it fail miserably in production code 'cause he didn't comprehend real time debugging.)
I doubt.. (Score:2)
Re:I doubt.. (Score:5, Insightful)
Outsourcing only pays off for VERY well managed and VERY well organized 3rd party organizations that you can trust 100% and as a rule, they don't exist because they don't exist ANYWHERE. You need to have an onsite presence much like IBM and Microsoft has in order for offshoring to really payoff. Otherwise you are not saving anything and may even be paying more... regardless of what some pitchman may tell you.
Re:I doubt.. (Score:5, Insightful)
that offshore jobs will go first. They're cheaper than local jobs.
Only in the short term. What's happening now (based on my anecdotal evidence, which is all one really needs here on /.) is that a lot of large companies are realizing this. Difficulty in communications, poor timing (What, you need that fix now? Sorry, you'll have to wait until tomorrow morning), and some of the shoddiest work you've ever seen are all contributing factors.
On the surface ,it's a very appealing model: you write up some requirements, communciate them to your offshore team and wow! magic! they return to you a finished product.
But here's what they don't tell you in the brochures (again, based on my experience managing and working with offshore vendors): a) if you don't spell out every single technical detail - almost literally to the point of writing the software yourself -- , you can't rely on them to do it right. b) you can't rely on them to communicate to you the things that they need clarification on, unless you are ready to spend a lot of time asking for t. c) the code you get back wll be virtually unmaintainable, with no thought given to refactoring, common functionality, or future mainitenance d) most of the development seems to be done by people with low experience (just out of the schools, which don't seem to teach anything relevant to the real world) and little skill e) if they have issues, do not expect to learn about them unless you constant ask for them. DO expect them to sit idle and not take any initiative if an issue occurs.
So all of this goes to say: it looks too good to be true, because it is. The old saying is that you get what you pay for -- and it still holds true. And after many years of budget overruns and software that doesn't do what it's supposed to do, companies are finally beginning to realize that.
Integration (Score:5, Interesting)
Make this work with that and that work with this.
Ok.
*scratches ass*
*does it*
*gets paid then laid*
Re:Integration (Score:5, Insightful)
You've been lucky. After the "*does it*", the usual response from the ones who want it done is "But I wanted this, this, and that". Where "this, this, and that" are requirements which were never brought up before and which are completely beyond the capabilities of the products you were integrating.
Re:Integration (Score:4, Funny)
the usual response from the ones who want it done is "But I wanted this, this, and that"
Thats what she said!
bad article (Score:5, Insightful)
I didn't see any reasons backing up these postulations. Especially the downturn in contractors. Is this yet another case of these companies reporting something just so they can report something?
Re:bad article (Score:5, Interesting)
Take the article for what it is... not an analysis of why and how companies will reduce spending, but instead the results of a survey.
Re:bad article (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, our revenue stream was less than expected for 2008 so they decided to start slashing budgets. One would think a 16% reduction in revenue would result in a 16% reduction in budget but I actually had mine cut by more than 50% and IT isn't alone here.
Executives like to use the times are tough argument to carve out more money for themselves thus making times tougher. It's hard for me to believe cash flow is low when private planes and houseboats are being bought instead of the owner reinvesting back into the company like he had already done. It's his right to do so of course since it is his money. Of course I know the ole times are tough argument is simply BS.
Re:bad article (Score:5, Insightful)
Well said.
I think "times are tough" means "times are tough for you, stupid worthless little peons, but not for me -- I'm the fat cat who passes through everything to the customers and to the employees".
Of course I don't think any job is worthless. Even simple jobs need to be done and done well. The fact that our corporate kitchen often stinks after it's been mopped doesn't contribute anything to productivity, to put it mildly. Every job is important and should be respected. It's too bad execs do not understand this well these days.
Also, a decent company exec tightens his own belt when the times are tough and leads by example. Decent company execs, where the fuck are you? Do you exist anymore? I sure hope so.
I'll never understand this argument... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:I'll never understand this argument... (Score:5, Insightful)
Carly Fiori OTOH, isn't beat down by life. Her slightest whim is translated into reality to the limits of human civilization. She's secure, doesn't constantly worry about her job going away, her medical care being pulled. Doesn't ever wonder if there will come a time when she can't eat.
You'd think people like that would have the simple human decency to accept a few incredibly minor limitations on their desires in exchange for massive benefits to millions and millions. You'd think that, and you'd be wrong.
bullshit. they will drop maybe in u.s. (Score:5, Interesting)
AND, since, our area, i.t., is a field that is kinda the originator of the concept of telecommuting, wont many i.t. people in u.s. be able to find work overseas, working through telecommuting ?
i dare not say demand for i.t. people will go down worldwide. its kinda impossible, since i.t. revolution is on full steam right now - we, as a civilization, are little far from trying to integrate our toilets to computers and internet.
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I agree. Especially with the industry becoming more commoditized, developers and IT staff are a necessary evil these days, like the plumber or the electrician. Maybe the article means it will be harder for shitty IT staff to get work :)
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Not quite (Score:3, Informative)
It is taking fewer and fewer people to do jobs that used to take more people to do them. Cuts in the overall number of IT jobs will continue for quite awhile. This is especially true in front line jobs like IT support and Help Desk. The former are fewer because hardware has become more redundant and commoditized; it's easy to just plop a new box down or have your redundant drives/servers take over the load while you get around to fixing it. The latter are fewer because more and more organizations are mo
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whilst i.t. was a corporate playground, today it has become the daily life. so people may find themselves coding an estore to a grampa from ohio nowadays.
well (Score:3, Interesting)
i kinda own my own business though. but, judging from the possibilities available in dev communities around the net, i can say that there are decent number of telecommuting jobs for many programming positions. provided that you can prove experience and track record. elance is one.
what i think is, many people who always worked in corporate culture either dont know where to look telecommuting jobs, or look down when they find them.
Re:bullshit. they will drop maybe in u.s. (Score:4, Insightful)
if you are a mechanical engineer, you may not be able to find any jobs. you cant lower your expectations and go doing plumbing.
but in i.t. we have the ability to downgrade our expectations. a programmer can downgrade expectations and work during a recession coding small contract jobs until economy gets back on track, for example. even by only himself/herself. or a network engineer/ server admin can find small jobs enough to make a living in web hosting industry in the meantime. actually many of them can turn into full time jobs. a civil engineer cant do that.
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my guess is that if u.s. it workers can lower their expectations a bit, they can survive anything. but then again they need to be not indebted with mortgages, kid college fees etc. but then again with the global recession looming these kind of comm
PHB gets it (Score:3, Insightful)
Grid computing, Open Source and Cloud computing] require a technical understanding to get to their importance. I don't think C-level executives and managers have that understanding.
In my country, we have a saying: "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?" In this case, the milk is open source software and the cow is the developer.
You mean they won't just throw money at people? (Score:2)
Plainly, they just "don't get it". Hah! Remember that one?
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Open Source 'clouds' (Score:2)
Now that mosix is dead, what sorts of "general use' open source 'clouds' exist now?
I also can see a legit use for root kits like this, just make all your PC"s appear like a VM server and spread the load around.
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mosix was based on transparent sharing of CPU resources across dissimilar machines, so its sort of the same idea.
if you have fiber to the desk, I/O isn't as big of a problem.
Need? I agree not yet, but it could leverage what you have better..
Just the harbinger of the wider economic collapse (Score:3, Interesting)
This doesn't surprise me too much. There's been a bad recession on the horizon for quite some time now, and it looks like it's coming home to roost.
For the first time since I graduated college, I'm not getting called for interviews, even for positions which I'm eminently qualified. It's getting tougher for people to find jobs, regardless of what they do. I've heard Republicans say that we're going to be in the worst recession since the Great Depression - which means that we're probably in quite a bit of trouble.
Perhaps I'm speculating a little too much here, but I'll bet the money that would have gone for IT salaries, etc... is now going into the coffers of the oil companies. Because our economy is so dependent upon oil for everything we do from growing crops to power generation to transportion, any rise in the price of oil is going to have a ripple effect.
Perhaps GW and Co saw peak oil coming and thought if we could just take Iraq, that we'd have enough oil. Perhaps they didn't understand that the loss of Iraq's oil on the world market would drive up prices - or maybe they did...
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Or we could see a rebound propelled by technological innovation in green power and technologies.
But speaking from personal experience the oil companies are spending on IT. Now if they'd only spend on exploration or R&D.
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This doesn't surprise me too much. There's been a bad recession on the horizon for quite some time now, and it looks like it's coming home to roost.
I wonder if your exact area of expertise or geographic location is a factor in that? I haven't been looking for work in months and still get occasional calls to see if I am looking for work. (The most recent one was just last week, and they were looking for a 1-2 year commitment.) I've heard of some people having a hard time, and others are up to their eyeballs in work.
Pund-IT? (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm sorry, but it's hard to take your message seriously when your company name is Pund-IT. From the name, I think you'd have been better off with Pun-dit. Or Pwnd-IT, which is pretty much what a lot of consultants are going to be feeling like next year.
At any rate, anyone who has been around business through a down-cycle or two would know that this is common sense. New programs, new ways of doing things, are saved for when the budget Gods are feeling generous with surpluses, not when eveyone is tightening their belts. There are, of course, exceptions to this... but anyone who thought that, in general, discretionary spending would increase over the next year really needs to have their head examined.
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Indeed. Also, I'd definitely like to read the original GS report that the article is supposedly based off of.
Pund-IT may be crap, but Goldman is not, so it would be interesting to see the original report.
Contractors, maybe. Consultants? Not very likely.
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Re:Pund-IT? (Score:5, Insightful)
Well, as someone who is in consulting, we tend to use the term consultant to define someone who comes in, provides a solution, and goes out (e.g. strategy consulting, management consulting etc). Typically, the purchasers involve C-level execs (or other top execs) who want to define a strategy (short term or long term, business, finance or tech etc), oversee an M&A deal etc.
An example of a top tier consulting firm would be McKinsey.
Contractors are people who are hired to actually do the job (e.g. a coder who is brought in to code) rather than consult. A tech consultant in my experience would assist the architects with defining the technology strategy and choosing the right vendors, SOWs, SLAs etc, but would not be part of the implementation process. A PMO consultant would assist with the program management process, but not necessarily manage the program per se. A marketing segmentation consultant would analyze the right market segments and tell you what markets to pursue and how, but not actually do it for you.
If the economy is doing badly, people need consultants to optimize the organization, help them with the layoffs, assist them with restructuring etc. Also, bad economic conditions are perfect conditions for companies to swallow their competition and other smaller companies, so more M&A deals and an increased demand for more sales etc.
Just my two cents!
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If I hire a consultant to consult for me on a contract basis, then the consultant is a contractor. I've dealt with McKinsey, with E&Y, with (showing my age a bit) Deloitte Haskel & Sells, and with JH Cohn on this basis.
If I hire resources to serve my clients on a contract basis, then the resources I engage are subcontractors... I'm the contractor.
In the past, I've
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I figured their name might be "Pun'd it", given the humorous nature of their comments.
But then I actually read their comments, and they are right on the money. Why on earth would most CIOs care about "cloud computing"? It's an idea whose time will probably never come, at least for most people. It's just another grand architectural vision, with lots of consultants talking about it and a few big companies signing up to offer facilities, but where would the real demand for it come from even if the money were a
I'd be surprised if they start with contractors (Score:5, Interesting)
Can't speak for the US, but in the UK we're ideal for economic downturns.
We don't cost holiday, pension, bonuses or sick pay, we don't have loads of employment law red tape and we can be brought in for specific projects and timeframes and tend to come with much shorter notice periods.
Plus the public sector loves us.
We'll see a freeze in rates, maybe even a reduction, but if anything economic downturns signal a bad time for those in permie jobs.
Bob the permie coder might be on half my hourly rate, but if he's only got three months work in a year he's going to cost you more than twice as much as bringing me in for 3 months.
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So why don't companies use contractors for everything?
Re:I'd be surprised if they start with contractors (Score:4, Interesting)
Of course they'll start with contractors. I contracted in the UK for almost 10 years and economic downturns always resulted in contractors getting cut.
That's the whole idea behind having contractors - flexibility. Large numbers can be quickly shed without paying redundancies and without lawsuits.
I might add that the rates I was earning in 2000 in the UK (just before the huge IT cuts post Y2K) have not yet been reached again in the UK in the 8 years since.
consolidate for growth (Score:2)
There are companies who aren't constrained by money as much as by electricity. There are colos with plenty of space, yet do not have the juice to feed racks and racks of units. Asking individual servers to do more, and looking at green solutions not so much for the environment but for making the most out of the least juice makes a lot of sense when your potential growth is constrained by available resources. In these cases there's no threat to jobs, if anything it's the opposite, allowing for growth by m
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I'd rather have 1 rock star coder than 20 mediocre ones.
The article is about IT. They don't do code.
and after the downturn, a bounceback (Score:2, Informative)
The same thing will happen again. If there is going to be a tough time (and we're certainly talking ourselves into it) then all it means is that new stuff will be delayed a bit. However, during that time we'll be able to filter out all the froth and hype, leaving us to get on with the good stuff when the money returns.
It's not the
An obvious lack of application (Score:5, Interesting)
Until someone with the correct technical understanding can actually go to their manager and (with a straight face) say, "I'll use cloud computing to solve this problem because that'll save us money and time" there's no real reason to expect anyone to get it.
Successful blue-sky projects are mostly run by strong companies in good economic times. So, not so likely right now. Someone who's playing with their own money could well take advantage of this lack of understanding or vision or whatever, but that's not really a bad thing. Unless you're stuck in cubicle land and still want to play with the latest, coolest buzzwords.
Cheer up, the outlook is great! (Score:5, Interesting)
If you are a seasoned IT professional or somebody who is starting out, things are looking bright for you as long as you have what it takes to be an engineer. I welcome any sort of clean up or a downturn in IT economy because most of the time it means that the bottom of the IT-wannabes will be laid off. This will benefit everybody in the long run.
First of all, engineering, unlike being a pizza delivery person, requires some knowledge and a certain set of analytical skills that one is born with. You can train people to deliver pizzas and punch cards, but it is hard to train people to resolve problems or come up with elaborate solutions. While books and schools may help, you either get it or not from the very beginning. Downturn in IT will mean that people who were there just for the sake of it, will probably lose their jobs or move on. This is great for the folks who -- while being good peole -- are simply not suited for jobs in the field of information technology.
While we all cry about off-shore development labs and cheap labor around the world, we are forgetting one thing: Americans are cheap now. Due to the falling dollar it makes less sense to run costly operations overseas. With China, India and Russia on the rise, people in those countries may see little in jobs and environments that make them work for the global companies (aka capitalist pigs).I would not be too concerned about wages if I were you. In fact, bad conditions in the U.S. sent many people who are currently employed via visas overseasas. Several friends of mine have moved back to their home countries alrady because "There is nothing to do in the U.S." This happens because while U.S. economy may go down, the world's economy is still expanding and there are plenty of things that have to be done in Moscow, Mumbai and Beijing. Good fore those who go back home and establish companies there. Good for the rest of us who are here.
And finally the loss of IT jobs should not be seen as the judgement day. I found that many people with engineering and business skills are more than capable of starting their own businesses and running their own shows. If you do not belong to the first group of people -- the ones who were not doing anything productive -- and you're not on a visa -- and you cannot go back home to start something new -- use the settlement to start something new. Many large companies are losing business because of the bad decisions that were made across the corporate ladder. A bust is only a bust if you think this way. In reality, it is a great opportunity for improvement for those of us who would like to grab the bull by its horns.
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Yeah, god forbid society ever moves forward or that the unfit don't make jobs. If this was a 100 years ago you'd be screaming at the car manufacturers for depriving horse drivers of their incomes and of light bulb manufacturers decimating the poor candle makers. I also I take it you want the mentally disabled to be paid as much as a PhD? After all they have families to.
Re:Cheer up, the outlook is great! (Score:4, Insightful)
God knows that I would love to live in a society where lay offs and cheap labor and two week notices are the things of the past. However, our world is not based on what is right. If you want to survive, you must learn how to play the game. Go read The World is Flat and perhaps you'll get a thing or two.
I have been in very tough positions in my life and those hard situations taught me something really important: Learn how to adapt and how to survive. Nobody, except for you, is interested in your survival. Corporations and governments would love to have employees that are barely smart enough to do their jobs while keeping their mouths shut. They feed on the paycheck mentality and we, suckers, are going for it. A cycle of clean up in any industry is a good thing because every time it happens, it teaches us a valuable lesson.
I am too sorry for families that go through financial losses due to lay offs. So the first thing that you should do is to ensure that your family can survive and live on one income. This automatically translates into living within your means and having a well stocked savings account. I made a pact with my wife that we will never work in the same industry just for that freaking reason. I know it sounds cruel, but what the hell am I supposed to do? Unionize? Complain about Indians stealing my work? Kill all H1B visa employees? Encourage gov't subsidies of IT shops?
Once I realized that organic chemistry sucked, I decided not to get involved into anything related to chemistry, biology, medicine etc. I would be a great fucking disaster as a doctor or anybody who is even remotely responsible for well being of anything that lives and breathes. Also, I have monkeying around with grease and you won't find me in any garage fixing cars for living. I mean, I could do that for living, but I would suck and it would be totally unfair to other people (I am saying that because I had enough connections to land a cushy job in the field that is not of an interest to me). Unfortunately, there are still many people who got IT jobs just because. These byproducts of on-line universities and strong family connections tend to fuck things up and I honestly feel no problem if some of them lose their jobs while IT experiences downturn. Why? Because people who a knowledgeable and competent will always find jobs. This is not related only to IT. In every industry there is a good fraction of people who tend to spend most of time talking on the phone and doing things besides what the get paid for. How is losing those guys a problem? This so-called downturn mentioned by GS is a red flag to everybody (GS is good at creating panic) that perhaps it is time to review career plans, get some education and think about the future. So rock on :)
Why I do trust this survey, but see it as flawed.. (Score:3, Insightful)
Software development isn't something you do as a businessperson because you want to pay for people to work on computers - it's something you do because you want something made or done.
Businesses will still want things made, and they will still want things done, because they are still going to be responding to a changing market, and they still want to be able to make new stuff, or change the stuff they currently make.
Software may be expensive to develop and test, but it's still one of the cheapest things you can mass produce, and one of the cheapest ways you can modify an existing product line to expand your market.
The emphasis will certainly be on return on investment - and there will be very nice plans on exactly how to spend the least possible, but the moment the competition has a feature that looks to harm the product line, *gasp* - suddenly the design for the product will have to be retrofitted, testing will have to be expanded, or the product release cycle will have to be accelerated to get that new feature in!
I completely understand this survey though - while companies do care if they end up spending more than they initially estimated, they just need to estimate low costs now, thanks to economic pressures to show the illusion of fiscal improvement and concern for the shareholder's resources.
So to show productivity when all you have are plans, you plan to make better features, spend less, and beat the competition - then ask for more money when you have more to show, which would only go to waste if you stopped now.
What this illusion accomplishes is a bit backwards though - there simply won't be as much open planning of large software project, and more emergency dollars and small contracts. You end up spending much more - much like the shift towards low cost estimates, but then using contractors and emergency spending in the Iraq war. It's the way the game tends to be played in poorly planned business and government - and it's very alluring if you only care about a small set of things going into it.
Ryan Fenton
Oh no! (Score:4, Insightful)
Someone in the media said I.T. jobs are going to drop next year? They *MUST* be able to tell the future! =p
On a serious note, I'm glad I.T. jobs are going to decrease. Hopefully it will align with I.T. jobs demanding more expertise and more actual work getting done, instead of having a "cloud" (or "grid", if you will) of Windows-only support drones reading scripts to you over the phone while you try to get support for a purchased product.
Another empty pundit pontificating (Score:4, Informative)
Goldman Sachs IT, eh? Yesterday it was Gartner. These are guys with funded track records of largely failure, IMHO. I wouldn't give them much creedence. The industry is ripe and rife with change, be it the blossoming of mobiles/cells to the enormous competitiveness of online commerce platforms, incredible changes in entertainment delivery systems, etc.
There's a small problem in the US economy that will actually be improved no matter who is elected US president, as it always is a honeymoon between investors and the new government every four years. And it's very likely that with a new regime will come a drastic cut in oil prices.... further spurring money back into tech, where we've made the most gains in the past few decades.
Gotta love a doom sayer; it's done so they can by the stock cheaper now, then sell it higher later. This is called capitalism, and the propaganda is called marketing.
Re:Another empty pundit pontificating (Score:5, Insightful)
I understand your well-reasoned reply.
I have to counter with the fact that the pump up in oil prices is artificial, and was started when the money ran out of the mortgage and hedge fund markets. This money needs to make money, and is always looking for a bull market. It found oil and other commodities.
While we'll also agree that oil consumption is overall a bad thing, and has done great damage to the environment, it is an artificial crisis, and bears no resemblance to supply and demand other than the limitations imposed on oil refinery capacity in the US. The limited capacity has the effect of amplifying the current trend, and every oil/political news sparrow fart of an RSS alert drives the price up. That's because there's a huge lump of money that needs to be making money as long as it is perceived that we'll continue to buy. No, it's not natural supply and demand. It's a squeeze job.
Look at what happened when GB the elder left office. Oil dropped in 1993 dramatically, to under $1/gal in most places. At the end of his term, it shot up, but nothing like what happened in late 2001. It dipped, then followed war. When the war in Iraq was artificially over, it dropped again as the mortgage and hedge funds were pumped (after all, there were no dot-coms to fund with exaggerated exuberance).
That money started leaving in 2006 because of all of the negative signs and that's when oil started to rise in price. Any old explosion in Nigeria or bellowing from a Venezuelan blow-hard president-for-life would cause a nice little bump up. Sneeze in the currency market? Bump. Look at the sneezes, follow the money.
You've been seduced by the pimps of the oil companies and the US press, which plays along like a lapdog with their huge benefactors, just as Washington, Inc., does.
But my sig represents not only the economy of peace, also the morality of it. I long for the day of great energy that doesn't pollute, but also a world that plans for the resources of the many that don't get to eat at night, or sleep under a roof, or get to know the luxuries of what we in the west call 'the basics'.
I guess it's time to jump ship (Score:5, Interesting)
Well, I think I should prepare to jump the IT ship pretty soon. My friend, with whom we were in this IT sector, jumped to the health-care field.
His Bachelor's and two Masters degrees in the IT sector at age 37 helped him get admission into one of the most coveted Nursing courses. He now practices as a nurse manager, earning close to US$80K. This does not include part-time work which he has to run away from.
This fella makes close to US$145K. I envy him. Guys, the health-care field is booming. Reports say nurses are in short supply and this will be the case for another three decades!
I am seriously considering jumping ship before it's too late.
Question is: Am I wrong?
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Happiness isn't money. Happiness is doing something that you enjoy during your 8 hour workday. I'd MUCH rather make a lesser salary than your nurse friend and solve problems for 8 hours a day than changing people's IV's and checking people's medical charts. Yes, I'm over generalizing the nurse... but my point is that if a career like that sounds equally as enjoyable as your IT career to you, then by all means... jump ship.
Here's my worry (Score:2)
I worry that I might be pushed off the ship at some point not far from now. Since I must have some form of income to survive in today's America, I thought that being pro-active and NOT being reactionary is better, when the inevitable happens.
By the way, I agree with you that happiness is not money - how can it be? For many, including yourself I guess, money is an important part of happiness.
If you can be really happy with zero income, accept my apologies.
Re: (Score:2)
Do you want to be a nurse, do you want to be in IT, or do you not care and want to optimize for maximum likelihood of having a job, or do you want to optimize for maximum earnings?
If you want to be in IT or optimize for maximum earnings, stick with IT and get good at it. If you can't get good at IT, go for nursing.
If you want to be a nurse, be a nurse.
If you want to optimize for maximum likelihood of having a job, be a nurse. Specialize in elder care. There is a huge segment of the population that is goi
Re:I guess it's time to jump ship (Score:4, Insightful)
Well, I think I should prepare to jump the IT ship pretty soon
...
Question is: Am I wrong?
Answer is: Depends.
What do you do? Are you a helpdesk monkey? A Winderz admin? Are you competent?
If you're coasting, then you're likely to be RIFed. Deadweight gets trimmed. If you're deadweight, you'd do well to jump somewhere before the cuts -- looks better in interviews ("I felt that I wasn't being challenged enough, and began to look for somewhere else to <strike>coast</strike> excel.").
If you're competent, then you'll be fine. You might have to move to where the jobs are, if they dry up around you.
Another important question is: Are you happy in IT? Or are you just there for the money? If you're just there for the money, you're likely to be deadweight, and you might as well jump to whatever the current fad is, or, possibly to something that you like doing.
I was in IT for a decade. I excelled, didn't want to become a PHB just yet, and looked elsewhere. Took a few years, but I found a way to leverage my skills and experience as a sysad into a development career. I've thought about med school, but I'm just too used to a six-figure income to think about going back to poverty for 8+ years.
Re: (Score:2, Troll)
...and how important nurses are. They do great work.
And this really comes to the heart of everything. This country is full of good people doing good work, trying their best to play by the rules created by a system that does not care for its citizens anymore.
We're bleeding... and there's no nurse to help us.
Our country is a market, not a country. We have buying power, but it is running out fast. There is no real sign of turn around. Our only hopes is to force these companies to pay heavy tax penalties for em
Re: (Score:2)
No. I believe his friend is making $85k in his full-time job as a nurse manager but has so much part-time nursing work that his overall pay is $145k.
The writer is clueless!!! (Score:2, Insightful)
Not what I've heard (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
IT is like any other industry. It will have its ups and downs with the economy, though some sectors and some companies will go against the trend. In my neck of the woods, the biggest problem is a lack of experienced technical staff. Colleges seem to be pushing out lots of guys with pieces of paper, but what a lot of businesses want is people who have actually demonstrated abilities. I can well believe that the shit-end of the profession; that is the call center guys and the other assorted bottom rung $1
Re: (Score:2)
Suits me just fine (Score:2)
This suits me just fine. Every couple years or so, the industry gets fat with those who don't really deserve their position, due to a variety of factors (dumb, lucky, know the boss etc)
The first to go will be the fat on the bone, which, as the subject line suggests, suits me just fine.
No prob...the biz that does understand wins (Score:3, Interesting)
Companies with foresight and vision will investigate those technologies that can increase their productivity AND the bottom line profit. Patching the dam only keeps it from breaking until later. You have to build a better one at some point.
Grid computing works. It's used in science research quite effectively. Cloud computing is coming no matter what people want.
There was a time when companies had their own power production facilities, now they don't (for the most part). As networking becomes faster (both latency and bandwidth) it will become cheaper to run your software somewhere else than running it in your building.
cloud computing (Score:2)
Once you start outsourcing applications and virtual servers, you get by with a fraction of the number of people you had before. IT budgets can shrink, and there are fewer jobs.
Of course, that's exactly why IT managers hate it.
Virtualization has its own faults.. (Score:2)
I contract for a defense and manufacturing company and previously they to were gung-ho about virtualization but virtualization was sold as a magic bullet that it is not and we're scaling it back after real-world experience.
It works for many things that are relatively low impact/low risk but if you try and virtualize a core business application - even something as simple as portal/sharepoint/app servers you very quickly realize the limitations & issues thereof.
What used to be a measure of ROI / Cost Bene
IT field avoidance should be a no-brainer (Score:4, Interesting)
At least for IT workers in the USA, UK, Australia, and Canada.
Occam's razor: off-shore labor is a lot cheaper, therefore employers will off-shore every possible job. If you do your job sitting in front of a computer, then your job can probably be off-shored - if not now, then certainly in the near future.
Furthermore, the simple laws of supply and demand dictate that the few jobs that are not off-shored, will have a glut of qualified applicants. The experienced developers who have their jobs off-shored, will clearly try to leverage their existing training and experience into the few remaining IT jobs that can not be easily off-shored. This causes a glut, and drives down wages.
The IT worker glut may be increased even more by improved automation of information system maintenance, standardization of software, and non-IT specialists who are increasingly sophisticated with information technology.
There can be nothing to stop this devastating trend, due to the following:
1) Corrupt USA politicians
2) USA IT workers are not willing to organize (please note: I am not suggesting a union)
3) Influential corporations have effectively distorted the issues
So there you go, it's as simple as that.
IMO: this trend is presently in it's infancy. The present trend has very little to do with the present economic slump. In fact, when the US economy recovers, this trend will accelerate even faster. The present situation for US IT workers is much better now, than it will be five years from now.
Re:IT field avoidance should be a no-brainer (Score:5, Interesting)
Our economy is just fine, thanks.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Don't extrapolate the US's crappy economy to countries you know nothing about, thanks.
Agreed. Come to Norway with a nice skillset and hold up a poster saying "IT dude want work" at the airport. Headhunters in 3, 2, 1...
With the current exchange rates, the salary might also be pretty decent.
The problem with this survey... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
Except C++ (like Java) is just a real horrendous language. I absolutely loathe C++.
Re:I am with Bjarne on this one (Score:5, Funny)
What would the world be like without Google?
Well, it would have a few more dissidents.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Cloud computing is not the same thing as Service Oriented Architecture in the same way that the interstate highway system isn't the same thing as an automobile.
Re:Eliminating the need for server virtualization (Score:4, Interesting)
Since we like to partition out at least one server per app since app vendors like to point fingers at each other....
That's the problem. Ask "Can you install this app as an ordinary user, without root privileges?" If the answer is no, then the TCO of the application just went way up.