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Gartner Reveals Top 10 Technologies For Next 4 Years

ScuttleMonkey posted more than 6 years ago | from the guessing-game dept.

IT 163

Dr. Jim writes "The good folks over at the Gartner Group have revealed the top 10 technologies that they believe will change the world over the next four years. The usual suspects including multi-core chips, virtualization, and cloud computing are on the list. Multicore servers and virtualization will mean that firms will need fewer boxes, and apps can be easily moved from box to box (and right out the door to an outsourced data center). Workplace social networks and cloud computing means that the need for a centralized IT department will go away. Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps. With no need to touch a box, there will be no need to have the IT staff co-located with the boxes."

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Forgetting one thing (4, Insightful)

TJ_Phazerhacki (520002) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603277)

Right. Completely virtualize and decentralize your environment. Save money! Work faster!

What security?

Re:Forgetting one thing (1)

jellomizer (103300) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603489)

Cloud Computing while a cool CS Concept and can be used in some cases. The fact that most apps are single threaded design will not gain any benefit from this and most companies don't need that level computing power. They would wast money and get small benefit. Unless they do some massive computing.

Re:Forgetting one thing (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603941)

Cloud Computing while a cool CS Concept and can be used in some cases. The fact that most apps are single threaded design will not gain any benefit from this and most companies don't need that level computing power. They would wast money and get small benefit. Unless they do some massive computing.
Ugh, it's not called cloud computing in CS. It's distributed computing. Get it right dbag.

Re:Forgetting one thing (5, Informative)

Maint_Pgmr_3 (769003) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603539)

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=530109 [gartner.com] for the real thing

Re:Forgetting one thing (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603571)

Right. Completely virtualize and decentralize your environment. Save money! Work faster! What security?

"Completely lock down and secure your cloud. Limit legal liability! Work securely!" - sneak preview from Gartner's May 2018 issue

Re:Forgetting one thing (2, Interesting)

jpedlow (1154099) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604115)

I'm the I.T. guy for a company that has 20 staff in the office, and 200 employees, and also owns 3 other smallish companies. Good luck with virtualizing...we run tons of proprietary apps that the devs cant even figure out how to turn them into a service, let alone make them portable to use from a datacenter in god-knows-where-istan (or california, whichever has more crazies :P ) Then, there's our connection, which, lets face it, is business cable, and goes down on occasion...so we need an in-house server at all times. But the real problem is the PEBKAC problems that i run through every day, and those require in-house I.T...Every-Ten-Minutes... Downsize the I.T. dept? Good-Fracking-Luck. :P

Re:Forgetting one thing (4, Interesting)

Lord Ender (156273) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604393)

It is true that virtualization technology allows businesses to do more IT functions with less IT staff. But it is also true that businesses are doing increasingly more IT functions all the time. So long as these factor balance each other out, IT will maintain its relatively low unemployment rate and its relatively high payscale.

However, if this balance tips, companies will benefit while IT staff loses. I consider this a possible future scenario, so I live well within my means and use a large percentage of my salary to buy ownership positions in those very companies that stand to profit from my obsolesce. That way, even if I lose in one way I win in another.

The stock market really is an amazing force for blurring the line between the working class and the ownership class, and I take full advantage of this power.

Maybe this means (2, Funny)

roblarky (1103715) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603291)

Telecommuting will finally be accepted for IT staff!

yes, IT will vanish (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603327)

Because outsourced hosting always meets its SLAs! So your company will never need anyone who is able to talk their language and hold their feet to the fire. Oh happy day! Oh brave new world!

Misleading summary; lean blog post (5, Informative)

bbasgen (165297) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603329)


  The article summary quotes a blog posting, *NOT* the Gartner study. Further, the blog posting only quotes the top ten items from Gartner, and provides no further data.

  The blogger is passing around FUD, without supporting those statements with any information from Gartner. This is a non-article with so little data.

Re:Misleading summary; lean blog post (2, Insightful)

LMacG (118321) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603525)

> The article summary quotes a blog posting

Well of course it does. The submitter is the blogger, who must have needed some page hits for some reason. That's the second reason I didn't RTF(blog). The first is the name "Gartner" who will, of course, say anything as long as you're paying them enough.

Re:Misleading summary; lean blog post (4, Insightful)

thanatos_x (1086171) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603859)

I've read more than a few of their full tech summaries on the emerging trends, both by industry and year.

Generally from year to year half the items would disappear from the lists (even though they were supposed to cover the next 5-10 years). In addition another quarter would randomly move about the "You'll see this technology in X years".

Most of the rest were so obvious that it really wasn't worth mentioning, an up to speed person would have known that. Wireless will be big in the future (published 2005ish)? No way!

The descriptions given for a technology(typically 2-3 paragraphs) were filled with jargon, and not terribly useful. Reading Popular Science and Mechanics was about as useful and far cheaper.

So yes, the lesson is that you can't buy innovation or management skills for a company by spending 20,000 a year, but you can make a nice sum pretending to sell it.

Re:Misleading summary; lean blog post (3, Informative)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603711)

The blogger is passing around FUD, without supporting those statements with any information from Gartner.

And this is different from stuff actually by Gartner how? This is Gartner we are talking about, so if they did publish such a study, a more accurate title might be, "Top 10 technologies we have a vested financial interest in promoting"

Pay wall? (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603873)

The blogger is passing around FUD, without supporting those statements with any information from Gartner.
Would you rather that the blogger have linked to a page where one can purchase a download of the Gartner report for at least three figures USD?

Re:Pay wall? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603987)

Would you rather that the blogger have linked to a page where one can purchase a download of the Gartner report for at least three figures USD?

No, I would rather the blogger provide a link to a free copy of fucking report or keep his mouth shut.

Re:Misleading summary; lean blog post (2, Funny)

ihatethetv (935399) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604653)

What are you going reading TFA!?!?!?! Get out of here with your fancy pants facts!

Let me be the first to say (5, Insightful)

moderatorrater (1095745) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603339)

'Duh'. Multicore processing? Are you fucking kidding me? You have to go out of your way to buy a computer that doesn't have multiple cores. Hybrid core? Wouldn't that be covered with the video cards opening up and letting generic code run on their processors? The rest are completely obvious in the same way. Anyone who's been watching computers for the past year could have compiled that list.

Re:Let me be the first to say (5, Insightful)

TooMuchToDo (882796) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603553)

The rest are completely obvious in the same way. Anyone who's been watching computers for the past year could have compiled that list.

You've just summed up most Gartner reports. =)

Re:Let me be the first to say (5, Funny)

Reverend528 (585549) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604017)

You've just summed up most Gartner reports. =)
Not everything they say is completely obvious. Remember when they told people to delay linux deployments until the SCO case was settled [slashdot.org] . Of course, that turned out to be terrible advice, but it was non-obvious.

Re:Let me be the first to say (2, Funny)

Chris Burke (6130) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605203)

Of course, that turned out to be terrible advice, but it was non-obvious.

Ha! Amazing the subtle difference between "obvious advice" and "obviously bad advice". :)

Re:Let me be the first to say (2, Insightful)

Rinisari (521266) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603581)

The hardware is there, yes, but the software is not. Not many applications are multithreaded/multiprocess.

Re:Let me be the first to say (2, Interesting)

arktemplar (1060050) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603643)

Well I'm not sure about how they have used hybrid cores, but try multicores with one core being an - on the fly reconfigurable FPGA' these kind of things would be so totally awesome if used properly. I think IBM is moving along similar lines for it's CELL series, there may be a tie-up with Xilinx involved - that I'm not so sure of, but it can be used most interestingly.

And is not all that obvious to most of the people who are just keeping up with computers rather than computing.

Re:Let me be the first to say (1)

moderatorrater (1095745) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604619)

on the fly reconfigurable FPGA
I've often thought that was the eventual course for making computers more like the human brain. We give up speed in specific, pre-defined problems for flexibility and higher speed for general problems with the ability to adapt to new ones (at least theoretically). With scripting languages, you could swap out, in real time, the most used functions into FPGAs. Need a fast string analyzer for the next ten minutes? Done. Need some fast array sorting for an hour? Done.

Of course, I'm a software guy, so I can't say how feasible this really is, but the ability to reprogram 75% of the functionality of the chips would seem to be a good solution to almost every problem.

How Gartner Works (1)

bill_mcgonigle (4333) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603773)

Yeah, this is How Gartner Works [bfccomputing.com] . You're not the target audience; it's middle managers at Fortune 1000 companies - you know, the kind who can pay for reports.

Re:Let me be the first to say (1)

Beef Supreme (1273826) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604195)

Yeah, seems like this list is from about five or six years ago.

Re:Let me be the first to say (2, Informative)

Red Flayer (890720) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605003)

Anyone who's been watching computers for the past year could have compiled that list.
Duh. Gartner's target readers are not people who've been watching computers for the past year. Gartner's targets are the people who pay other people to watch computers, so that those people can pretend to know what they are talking about when they discuss new technologies with their minions.

That's for generic articles like this one; Gartner does some targeted research and analysis that's better, particularly if you pay a lot of cash.

With high gas prices... (2, Funny)

meglon (1001833) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603341)

"Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps. With no need to touch a box, there will be no need to have the IT staff co-located with the boxes."

...and in further news: Rocks, Paper, Scissors poised for a comeback as non-IT personal try to establish who it is that has travel half way across the continent to push the "on" button.

'augmented' reality? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603347)

That's not new tech. I used to skip school and augment my reality every day.

Sometimes I try to augment females' reality to trick them into thinking I'm attractive.

Nothing to see here (4, Insightful)

Kohath (38547) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603359)

If you make your predictions vague enough, they have a good chance of being correct (for generous interpretations of correct).

I predict the next 4 years in technology is going to be similar to this year. This will end up being correct for generous definitions of "similar".

Re:Nothing to see here (1)

Gat0r30y (957941) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603445)

Its like the horoscope - Augmented reality? Dude, I know I'll be getting high in the next four years, but seriously, I don't see how that's any of IT's business.

From TFA (2, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603363)

1. Multicore and hybrid processors
2. Virtualization and fabric computing
3. Social networks and social software
4. Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
5. Web mashups
6. User Interface
7. Ubiquitous computing
8. Contextual computing
9. Augmented reality
10. Semantics

Re:From TFA (1, Insightful)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603799)

1. Not future; in fact may have already jumped the shark (as has the phrase "jumped the shark")

2. "Fabric computing"? WTF is "Fabric computing"? Wikipedia leaves me ignorant, as does TFA. When I saw the phrase I thought of the first computer I ever saw [kuro5hin.org] in 1964. It was attached to a loom and wove a cloth bookmark out of thread with a design you entered with a very primitive light pen. It was the coolest thing I'd ever seen in my life, but I doubt it's what these stupid yuppies are referring to.

4. Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms? WTF??? Yeah, I've seen that yupiespeak before. It's a diagram that shows the internet as a cloud and the phrase's user as a technology-clueless idiot.

5. Web mashups? 1999 called and wants its newspeak du jour back.

6. User Interface? Didn't ENIAC have an interface? Even if it was just plugs and wires?

7. Ubiquitous computing? Hey everybody, Gartner discovered the internet!

8. Contextual computing? You mean like not putting text data in a numeric field?

9. Augmented reality? I already have it, click my sig for details. You will be assimilated, resistance is futile.

10. Semantics? 1998 called, it wants its dotcom bubblegum back.

Whoever's paying these idiots has WAY too much money and WAY too little sense. It's all babbling designed not for dissimination of information but instead obfuscation of the fact that the speaker doesn't have a fucking clue but wants you to think he's "real smart".

Nothing to see here. Not even if you have three eyes.

IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

PoliTech (998983) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603367)

In an article describing Microsoft's mainstream containerized data centers (named "C-Blox") Microsoft general manager of data center services Michael Manos says his vision of the future of IT is IT workers who look more like "truckers and longshoremen than traditional IT workers". [informationweek.com]

So are we now to believe that a "truckers and longshoremen" skills shortage shows need for an increase of the 85,000 H-1B visas already available?

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (2, Interesting)

DAldredge (2353) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603487)

Quote mining for the win! "In the C-blox world, a truck drops off a data center container and then picks it up again in a few years when Microsoft is ready to switch over to new hardware. Administrators will only enter the physical C-blox in the rarest of occasions. "In that sense, your IT workers look more like truckers and longshoremen than traditional IT workers," Manos said. It will also allow Microsoft to run the entire Northlake facility with a continuous staff of little more than 20 or 30 employees."

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

Wheely (2500) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603579)

Is it magic cabling?

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

statemachine (840641) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604291)

The author was probably thinking the cables would look and be attached like other truck trailer connections, making it more simple than adding 50 new types of connectors to figure out.

I'm not sure about the tone. Was he saying that IT would be so simple a longshoreman could do it? Or that a longshoreman would be better than some IT workers?

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604883)

I think he was just saying that IT workers should maybe try to lose some weight, bin the check shirts and for $deity's sake, wear a frickin' belt.

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

PoliTech (998983) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604617)

The "Quote mining" term is usually used as a pejorative. So are you accusing me of misquotation? Of an attempt to represent the views of the person being quoted inaccurately? Of taking the quote out of context?

The summary says, "the need for a centralized IT department will go away. Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps. With no need to touch a box, there will be no need to have the IT staff co-located with the boxes."

This is similar to what Manos described in April of this year. Except Manos added the "truckers and longshoremen" pejorative to his vision of the future of IT staffing.

Since I Blogged, and /. Journaled about it in April, I thought it was interesting to see the same idea on the "roadmap" described in the summary. That's hardly "Quote mining".

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

DAldredge (2353) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605097)

I apologize - I should have not used the term "quote mining" instead I should have said something like 'selective use of the linked article in a deliberate attempt to give your audience a distorted view of the subject at hand" Is that better?

Re:IT envisioned as "truckers and longshoremen" (1)

PoliTech (998983) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605163)

If so, then "Trolling" should be a sufficient description of your comment.

Not the case... (3, Interesting)

HaloZero (610207) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603369)

Workplace social networks and cloud computing means that the need for a centralized IT department will go away.

But borne from the ashes of the 'centralized IT department' come the 'social networking support department'. Because no matter how intuitive you make it, someone won't get it. That fact, combined with the problem that the larger your corporation becomes, the more obfuscated every little thing is (I work for GE).

Contextual Computing is hilarious (3, Funny)

AtariDatacenter (31657) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603371)

Anyone remember the guy who's TiVo started recording a lot of gay movies? "My TiVo thinks I'm gay!"

There is a lot of room to make big mistakes in this area of computing. Contextual Computing can lead to hilarious failures.

Re:Contextual Computing is hilarious (1)

marxmarv (30295) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604089)

I prefer the term "jovial".

High-level, better-trained IT workers opportunity! (4, Insightful)

compumike (454538) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603417)

While the article and summary want to scare IT workers ("Oh, oh -- can you hear your job going away?"), perhaps it's time to get back to the big picture: Information Technology is supposed to help people do their jobs more efficiently. So, while the article does much to suggest that server-side stuff might be getting "outsourced" to the cloud, people still need to interface with it. It'd be nice to see client systems taking steps forward in terms of reliability and ease of use, but nothing monumental is changing on that side of the equation.

But, by outsourcing/concentrating the server-side administration to the "cloud", you might free up IT workers to do less grunt work and do more in terms of process innovations, making the whole enterprise more efficient. IT workers will have to think about how they can make the business operate more efficiently, and be creative and get it implemented. Are today's IT workers ready for that level of thinking?

--
Hey code monkey... learn electronics! [nerdkits.com]

Re:High-level, better-trained IT workers opportuni (1)

jellomizer (103300) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603635)

Unforntunaly not most. And espectially IT managers.

IT Departments tend to work on keeping things running and less time analysing the buisness needs and seeing how IT can help improve it. In places that have such departments they companies run very well. When they focus on keeping things running... Things just fail.

Re:High-level, better-trained IT workers opportuni (4, Interesting)

zappepcs (820751) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603687)

Not only that, and you do make a hugely valid point, but all this IT infrastructure is ... well, it would grind office productivity to a halt if the printer is broken. Despite all the hardware, the paperless office has not yet taken off in any meaningful way. When the connection between your desktop and the printer is through a router that is on the other side of the country, and it takes 2 hours to get it working, productivity will drop significantly. To simply bleat on about moving the data center out into the cloud is blindly spewing PR like the run up to the invasion of Iraq.

Much like outsourcing has come to be more expensive, so too will 'outsourcing' your data center. I'm sure that we've all heard of DDoS attacks. How convenient will they become when your data is on the other side of a router from your workers? Yeah, the SLAs sound good on paper, but oat 4:30 on a Friday of a long weekend, when your billing processes grind to a halt, how long will it take to get fixed? My personal favorite is the data center people telling me it is an application error. The billing department is telling me that their application is giving an error that a server can't be found. My code says that there is a permission problem on a network directory, and no one left in the data center has admin rights on that box.

Yep, this outsourcing thing will work out well.

What was that old saying? If you want it done right, you have to do it yourself? Sometimes it is true, ya know?

Re:High-level, better-trained IT workers opportuni (3, Insightful)

countSudoku() (1047544) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604317)

Bingo! That's more correct than most IT managers would ever realize. Outsourcing is just that; too expensive and even more work than to keep it in-house. I've personally seen two, local, big corp data centers get sucked into the "let's let do this and save on our expensive in-house help!" Worked out great in both situations. One company scared off any good talent and got a name around the area as a lame data center to work for, plus they're paying through the nose for their administration now! They were not much to begin with anyway. The other Big Retail Co. got a sad and unpleasant shock when the "solutions provider" couldn't live up to their marketing hype; "we can build you a cluster of servers in about a hour" turned out to be "well, when you give us a month's notice and take the bundled software we provide at the revisions only we approve and support, then after that it's about an hour. Oh, and you can't upgrade any software to what you need." They did a big about face in just two year's time and recently hired back one of their admins at about a 150% salary! He just bailed for an even greener pasture. Now they're on Dice searching and hoping. It does not pay to outsource, then decide against it and hope you can find some hungry admins of high quality who don't already know what kind of crap your management pulls. Good luck with that. Seriously.
        Also, I might add that outsourcing critical data is *NOT*, repeat *NOT*, going into the cloud, or over to India. There are huge obstacles to having your (health care or SOX-type, or government contract with employee info, etc.) data stored in someplace other than in your own, well-protected, data center her in the USA. It's not going to happen as there are several federal regulations that make it impossible, or really really not worth it for a number of legal reasons. That's not changing in the next four years.

Re:High-level, better-trained IT workers opportuni (3, Insightful)

pla (258480) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604961)

IT workers will have to think about how they can make the business operate more efficiently, and be creative and get it implemented.

Puh-lease. Today's IT workers can't get our users to access network file shares rather than filling the mail spool with the same attachments (And a million revisions thereof) over and over and over... And in the few cases I've seen where people (always at least "engineers", not just your typical office staff) do use a NAS, they constantly come asking for help when they try to send outside contacts links to internal files. It seems that people have some sort of mental wall around the ideas of "local" and "not local", with no middle-ground possible. And god forbid you actually make such access secure - Users will actually burn CDs and pass them back and forth rather than even attempt to navigate the simplest of login prompts.

So no, I don't worry about finding myself unneeded any time soon - Regardless of how easy the technology gets to use, the actual users still won't get it. And they'll need us to help them get that 10.1MB file (that the email system keeps rejecting) to Fred in Accounting - Who will then need our help opening the file.

Old! (4, Funny)

neokushan (932374) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603421)

Cloud computing is already here, Valve invented it this morning!

On another note, an unknown company is bringing out a sewing application that promises to push multithreading to it's limits.

Re:Old! (1)

grommit (97148) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603501)

Sources say that the unknown company is Singer.

Re:Old! (1)

smbarbour (893880) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604163)

Or it could be Brother, and then you never know what kind of "multithreading" they're talking about.

Outsourced information will come back (5, Insightful)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603451)

No later than when companies notice that suddenly, surprisingly someone patents something they were on the verge of patenting themselves, when they notice that said company is somehow curiously located where their servers are.

I guess even our business captains know that putting information into hands you can't control is a BAD idea. They should know. They've been gathering ours for years, and they know what value even trivial information (like your shopping habits) has.

Where have I heard this before (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603469)

Distributed computing, centralized computing and back again.

Troubleshooting Step #1 (4, Insightful)

dcollins (135727) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603519)

Client: I can't login.
Troubleshooting Step #1: Make sure it's plugged in.

Ergo, there will always be a need for IT staff co-located with the boxes.

Something Old, Something New (3, Funny)

Gonoff (88518) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603543)

Some/most of these things exist already, some of them are in use and relevant. Others are just excuses for avoiding work.

  1. Most of us have unused processor cores. Multicore is a great idea. Does this mean that someone might actually start writing software that uses them?
  2. We have an ever increasing number of virtual servers. Fabric computing might make for a better PDA or iPod but I can't see it being used in office environments for workers. Mostly for IT techs and Suits
  3. Handy for Sales Weasels but not business related for most of us.
  4. In use already. Many of us use web apps but they have yet to hit the big time. Possible...
  5. I can believe this one.
  6. Yes, computers will continue to have user interfaces...
  7. My phone is ubiqutous. I can believe that I will have a decent PC on me at all times.
  8. Needs more work to show me what that means. In the meantime - a buzzword.
  9. Overlays on the inside of my glasses? In some fields. HUDs for the masses.
  10. Another buzzword and needs clarification to me anyway

Re:Something Old, Something New (1)

jonaskoelker (922170) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603881)

That post makes no sense at all! You just posted an incoherent list of things that sound like they're a reply to something... ;)

Re:Something Old, Something New (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23604293)

um... RTFA

Centralized IT isn't going away (3, Insightful)

lamontg (121211) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603549)

Cloud computing doesn't make centralized IT go away.

Amazon EC2 only provides you with servers. You still need system admins to configure and run and debug the boxes if you're doing anything remotely complicated.

It does solve provisioning issues, procurement issues and lights-out management. But that is just a sliver of centralized IT.

And having Amazon provide "remote hands" for you to replace failed hardware is not even a "centralized" part of IT. Even without cloud computing you shouldn't have your IT organization tightly coupled to where your sites are. All that you need is the occasional physical hardware replacement, and management of the facilities (power, cooling, etc).

Re:Centralized IT isn't going away (2, Interesting)

Eponymous Bastard (1143615) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604359)

But half the companies out there aren't actually doing anything complicated.

I've been looking at open source ERP solutions (ERP5, Adempiere, etc.) and it makes me wonder whether you could set up a company that configures and manages servers and ERP systems. The actual boxes could be at your place or elsewhere.

Basically, you can offer companies a complete package for HR, order management, invoicing, payroll, etc. without them having to hire a single extra person. You'd have to have a clause in the contract to give them all their data and server configuration on demand, of course, maybe even send them weekly backups as part of your disaster recovery plan.

In the end you'd end up with a company of highly specialized people, giving your customers good response and high end features (mobile access? no problem), for less than it would cost them to have a team knowledgeable enough and able to do 24 hour support.

Of course companies would still need help desk and business-specific software, but that's less people (and is sometimes outsourced/contracted out anyway). You web presence would probably be custom made though.

And if you're an internet company, just forget it. (or then again, you hire a designer to provide custom CSS for the provider's web interface to the standard modules to the open source ERP system, which might be enough for half the sites out there too ...hmmm....)

Re:Centralized IT isn't going away (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23604375)

>Cloud computing doesn't make centralized IT go
>away.

Then we need to invent something else. However;

>Amazon EC2 only provides you with servers. You
>still need system admins to configure and run and
>debug the boxes if you're doing anything remotely
>complicated.

Then someone else will realize that there is a better business model. A model that actually benefits the clients.

Uh, Excuse me! (5, Insightful)

Master of Transhuman (597628) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603555)

"Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps. With no need to touch a box, there will be no need to have the IT staff co-located with the boxes."

How do you access the "cloud" without a computer next to you?

You have DSL embedded in your brain?

Get a clue. Companies may not have conventional desktop PCs in their offices, but they're going to have to have SOME sort of computing device - if nothing but a thin client or even just a flat screen terminal or a BlackBerry - to access the computing resources.

And those devices need servicing - if not much servicing.

Anybody who thinks computers are leaving offices is so frickin' deluded I don't know what to say.

Not to mention that your IT staff exists mostly to solve the problems with the SOFTWARE - not the hardware. And software problems aren't going away regardless of whether it's on the desk, on a server, or in the cloud.

Who deals with those problems may change. Companies may very well outsource their IT support - I am the outsource for my clients - but all that means is they'll pay more for less (except in my case, 'cause I'm cheap.) Their overall cost may go down, but in many cases they'll get poorer service because the IT staff servicing their problems isn't a member of the company or on site and thus has less comprehension of the company's needs. There's nothing like being on site and in daily contact with the staff to see what a company's problems are.

Re:Uh, Excuse me! (1)

smbarbour (893880) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604289)

I'd have to agree with you there. I'm a jack of all trades IT worker (formal title: Systems Admin). I'm responsible for keeping both the user PCs running as well as the servers.

If the servers were no longer my responsibility, my job would change very little.

Re:Uh, Excuse me! (1)

blurryrunner (524305) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604535)

I think you you missed the point. What I gathered from the article was that there was no longer a need for the server admins be located physically near the servers--it all can be done remotely.

In the context of the rest of the commentary, he's saying that an outsourced data center can manage the physical boxes, while sys admins can manage the "virtual boxes" remotely. That's not really a new concept except that it is becoming increasingly viable as the processing power of servers continue to advance. So the hardware administration will be outsourced while the software continues to be maintained in-house.

I'm with you, though, computers are here to stay in businesses.

br/

Re:Uh, Excuse me! (1)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604939)

Oh, they've let you out again?

creators reveal top project for next 10,000 years (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603559)

that would be their wwwildly popular newclear powered planet/population rescue initiative/mandate. the lights are coming up all over now. see you there? conspiracy theorists are being vindicated. some might choose a tin umbrella to go with their hats. the fairytail is WINDing DOWn now. let your conscience be yOUR guide. you can be more helpful than you might have imagined. there are still some choices. if they do not suit you, consider the likely results of continuing to follow the corepirate nazi hypenosys story LIEn, whereas anything of relevance is replaced almost instantly with pr ?firm? scriptdead mindphuking propaganda or 'celebrity' trivia 'foam'. meanwhile; don't forget to get a little more oxygen on yOUR brain, & look up in the sky from time to time, starting early in the day. there's lots going on up there.

http://news.google.com/?ncl=1216734813&hl=en&topic=n
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/opinion/31mon1.html?em&ex=1199336400&en=c4b5414371631707&ei=5087%0A
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/world/29amnesty.html?hp

is it time to get real yet? A LOT of energy is being squandered in attempts to keep US in the dark. in the end (give or take a few 1000 years), the creators will prevail (world without end, etc...), as it has always been. the process of gaining yOUR release from the current hostage situation may not be what you might think it is. butt of course, most of US don't know, or care what a precarious/fatal situation we're in. for example; the insidious attempts by the felonious corepirate nazi execrable to block the suns' light, interfering with a requirement (sunlight) for us to stay healthy/alive. it's likely not good for yOUR health/memories 'else they'd be bragging about it? we're intending for the whoreabully deceptive (they'll do ANYTHING for a bit more monIE/power) felons to give up/fail even further, in attempting to control the 'weather', as well as a # of other things/events.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=weather+manipulation&btnG=Search
http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=video+cloud+spraying

dictator style micro management has never worked (for very long). it's an illness. tie that with life0cidal aggression & softwar gangster style bullying, & what do we have? a greed/fear/ego based recipe for disaster. meanwhile, you can help to stop the bleeding (loss of life & limb);

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/28/vermont.banning.bush.ap/index.html

the bleeding must be stopped before any healing can begin. jailing a couple of corepirate nazi hired goons would send a clear message to the rest of the world from US. any truthful look at the 'scorecard' would reveal that we are a society in decline/deep doo-doo, despite all of the scriptdead pr ?firm? generated drum beating & flag waving propaganda that we are constantly bombarded with. is it time to get real yet? please consider carefully ALL of yOUR other 'options'. the creators will prevail. as it has always been.

corepirate nazi execrable costs outweigh benefits
(Score:-)mynuts won, the king is a fink)
by ourselves on everyday 24/7

as there are no benefits, just more&more death/debt & disruption. fortunately there's an 'army' of light bringers, coming yOUR way. the little ones/innocents must/will be protected. after the big flash, ALL of yOUR imaginary 'borders' may blur a bit? for each of the creators' innocents harmed in any way, there is a debt that must/will be repaid by you/us, as the perpetrators/minions of unprecedented evile, will not be available. 'vote' with (what's left in) yOUR wallet, & by your behaviors. help bring an end to unprecedented evile's manifestation through yOUR owned felonious corepirate nazi glowbull warmongering execrable. some of US should consider ourselves somewhat fortunate to be among those scheduled to survive after the big flash/implementation of the creators' wwwildly popular planet/population rescue initiative/mandate. it's right in the manual, 'world without end', etc.... as we all ?know?, change is inevitable, & denying/ignoring gravity, logic, morality, etc..., is only possible, on a temporary basis. concern about the course of events that will occur should the life0cidal execrable fail to be intervened upon is in order. 'do not be dismayed' (also from the manual). however, it's ok/recommended, to not attempt to live under/accept, fauxking nazi felon greed/fear/ego based pr ?firm? scriptdead mindphuking hypenosys.

consult with/trust in yOUR creators. providing more than enough of everything for everyone (without any distracting/spiritdead personal gain motives), whilst badtolling unprecedented evile, using an unlimited supply of newclear power, since/until forever. see you there?

"If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land."

meanwhile, the life0cidal philistines continue on their path of death, debt, & disruption for most of US. gov. bush denies health care for the little ones;

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/03/bush.veto/index.html

whilst demanding/extorting billions to paint more targets on the bigger kids;

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/12/bush.war.funding/index.html

& pretending that it isn't happening here;

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3086937.ece
all is not lost/forgotten/forgiven

(yOUR elected) president al gore (deciding not to wait for the much anticipated 'lonesome al answers yOUR questions' interview here on /.) continues to attempt to shed some light on yOUR foibles. talk about reverse polarity;

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3046116.ece

for low values of "change the world" (1)

bsDaemon (87307) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603585)

I fail to see how social networks or multicore CPUs have "changed the world" or will. I would think that advances in energy efficient hardware, "green" power generation, hydroponic and other greenhouse technologies (to allow for year-round, local production of food even in places where the climate is totally lame) would be more likely to "change the world," and are things that people actually NEED to happen.

No one NEEDs Facebook. I'm actively considering deleting my account, personally. No one is going to remember "mashups" in 50 years -- and their introduction is certainly going going to figure on a time line likely to go into any reputable history text book.

Uh... (1)

CopyMouse (1235878) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603637)

Was that list published 4 years ago? :P

cloud computing is latest buzzword (2, Insightful)

alen (225700) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603649)

back in 2002 it was called web services, then it was web 2.0 and a few other things. the 2008 name is cloud computing. come early 2009 they will make up another name to hype at the conventions and get eyeballs to tech news websites

Augmented reality (1)

Archangel Michael (180766) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603669)

what the hell is "Augmented reality"??

The only thing I could come up with is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borg_(Star_Trek) [slashdot.org] >this

Is it "more real than real"?

Or is it just the latest buzzword to describe something nobody has thought of yet?

I'm completely stumped, really I am.

Re:Augmented reality (1)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603917)

See my sig; I have "augmented reality" via a CrystaLens implant. I am a cyborg. You will be assimilated. resistance is futile. We already have the Vice President of the US in our clutches! [wikipedia.org]

BTW, your link is wrong; it leads back to this article. I believe this [wikipedia.org] is the link you are looking for. However, a better link is here [reference.com] (a dictionary lookup of the word "cyborg").

Re:Augmented reality (1)

Jaysyn (203771) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604341)

Read "Rainbows End" by Vernor Vinge for a cool take on Augmented Reality.

Intersting (1)

geekoid (135745) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603757)

wasn't the internet suppose to do a lot of that stuff?

Managerial Porn (1)

mpapet (761907) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603761)

centralized IT department will go away.

Ohhh yesss.

Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps.

Ohhh! Ohhh! Ahhh!

no need to have the IT staff

Cumshot

Let's say this isn't another Gartner managerial fairy tale for a minute. Where, ***exactly*** are the cost savings? I just priced a 16-way dl380 g5 for about $5000 with drives and lots of ram. I would run out of bandwidth before I ran out of computing horsepower. That's soon to be the price of a pound of peanuts.

IT Pronounced DOA for the 439th time .... (2, Insightful)

HW_Hack (1031622) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603783)

Once again those who "live and breathe" technology attempt to predict how technology will affect the average worker who "doesn't get" the basics of technology or care about it.

I support over 180 teaching staff and 30 administrative staff + 2000 HS students using about 700 computers.

Many of the staff are quite comfortable users - but 98% of them have their real job focus "teaching students". Yes they use technology but their focus is staying abreast of new trends in Math - science - History ... and creating engaging content. NOT DESCRIBING SOME TECHNICAL ISSUE TO SOME "CLOUD BASED SUPPORT GEEK IN THE NEXT TIME-ZONE".

Local support will not go away for a long time ... and yes students are tech savvy - but tech savvy at using applications and devices does not give you the deductive skill needed to solve problems.

The biggest new "technology"... (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603811)

for the next 4 years is going to be a president who doesn't share his (or hers, I can finally say) predicessor's affection for this country's growing luddite infection (and if you don't know who I'm talking about it's probably you).

I Love Stuff Like This (1)

BigBlueOx (1201587) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603899)

Hapless Accountant:"Hey! I can't connect to our servers!"

IT Manager:"Let me call our out-sourced data center that holds all our corporate data in a secure and safe off-site location"

Out-Sourced Data Center Phone Line:"bee-doo bee-doo We're sorry. The number you have dialed has been disconnected"

CEO(roaring):"Where's our data?"

IT Manager:"um ... i think they went out of business ... sir ... your highness ... your lordship ..."

Multicore has been changing the world for years. (1)

Ungrounded Lightning (62228) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603905)

Multi-core chips WILL change the world over the NEXT four years? They ALREADY HAVE.

They've been providing massive crunch in internet routers for years.

Now that I look at it... (1)

Ungrounded Lightning (62228) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604001)

Now that I look at it more closely, it seems that most of those items have already "changed the world" pretty significantly.

Listing a bunch of paradigm-shifters that are years old but still on an adoption rampup may be useful when trying to plan for the future. But it's a pretty simple algorithm for generating reports, not something particularly insightful.

The outsourcing mania (1)

Animats (122034) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603937)

Most of the enthusiasm for "software as a service" comes from companies selling the services. The problem they face is that most companies have already purchased the hardware and applications they need, and they don't need to buy them again. This is Microsoft's big problem. Really, once you made it to Windows 2000 and Word 97, office applications worked pretty well. So why buy them again? Most of the additions since then benefited Microsoft more than the user.

The trouble with "cloud computing" (otherwise known as "time-sharing") is that it only makes sense if you have a transient need for large amounts of compute power. That transient need also has to be at a different time than the transient needs of others. Don't put your retail system on Amazon's system; they have vast excess capacity most of the year, but in November and December, they're busy. (Amazon's primitives for "cloud computing" are well-chosen, though, and they've made some real progress on how to organize large numbers of machines. Their software would be useful without their service, and comparable open-source tools would be valuable.)

If you have a fixed load, but just don't want to run a physical data center, there are many co-location facilities like Rackspace.

How is "cloud computing" different from "grid computing", anyway?

10 out of 10 for stating the obvious (1)

petes_PoV (912422) | more than 6 years ago | (#23603945)

Ahhh, another good old gartner prognostication.

Really, the items on this list are so old they smell bad.

Multicore processors - not exactly novel, plus it's just another way of packaging multi-processor systems that have been around for decades. The only new attribute is that they're coming down in price.

Social networks? what planet have these guys been on for the last 5 years?

Even better "user interface" at number 6.

Frankly I'm surprised that Web 2 didn't make it. Maybe they disguised that as #5, web mashups?

Hopefully no-one made the mistake of paying for this list.

Multithreading and hybrid processors? Not! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603957)

The future will be neither multithreaded nor heterogeneous. Multithreading is the work of the devil and everybody in the business should know this by now. Logic dictates that universality should be the primary objective of multicore research. So what do we have? We have incompatible multicore technologies: coarse grain, thread-based MIMD on the one hand and fine grain, data parallel SIMD on the other. Worse, the industry wants us to move to a hybrid processor, a truly hideous monster that mixes both SIMD and MIMD on a single die. Talk about a programming nightmare! No wonder there is a parallel programming crisis. The industry is clueless and so is the computer science community since they're the ones who got us into this fine mess in the first place. For a good explanation of what is wrong with parallel programming and what the solution is, read Nightmare on Core Street [blogspot.com] . Funny thing is, the solution has been around ever since programmers begin to emulate deterministic parallelism in neural networks and cellular automata. And without threads, mind you.

Anonymous Coward (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23603983)

You won't need an IT department the day your staff just happens to become magically computer savvy and naturally knows how to exploit your computer resources to their full potential.

How do you get rid of in-house IT? Dumb down your business practices. Un-automate things. Don't try to make things talk to each other or "sync". Type things... print them... send them to the recipients. Stick to factory settings.

User Interface? Semantics? (3, Funny)

faust2097 (137829) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604221)

At #7 they have "user interface" listed like it's some technology you can buy. Same with "semantics" at #10.

Some poor IT guy is going to have a lot of complicated explaining to do when the CIO pounds his fist on his desk and yells "go get us some user interface and semantics!"

Re:User Interface? Semantics? (1)

Cathoderoytube (1088737) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604743)

Yeah the 'user interface' puzzled me. What the hell does that even mean? Are they referring to touch screens or what? You'd think if they were, they'd have mentioned it specifically .

Good news Comrades! (1)

overtly_demure (1024363) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604237)

  • Multicore servers and virtualization will mean that firms will need fewer boxes, and apps can be easily moved from box to box
  • Workplace social networks and cloud computing means that the need for a centralized IT department will go away
  • Firms will no longer need to own/maintain the boxes that they use to run their firm's apps
  • With no need to touch a box, there will be no need to have the IT staff co-located with the boxes
  • The lion will lie down with the lamb
  • {The workers' paradise | the reign of God | the leisure society} will begin and last for a thousand years
  • Beautiful young women will throw themselves at boring geeks and fulfill their every wish
  • Money will become obsolete, everyone will have whatever they want
  • People will cheerfully assume personal responsibility in and for everything they do
  • Crime, exploitation, war, violence, pestilence, and injustice will end abruptly
  • The ambient temperature of Hell will drop below that of liquid nitrogen at standard temperature and pressure

Re:Good news Comrades! (1)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605133)

You missed:
  • 85% of desktops run linux[1]
  • Duke Nuke Forever is released
[1] The other 15% run Hurd.

Anonymous Coward (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23604247)

I might be a coward, but ...

It is always humorous to watch people try and "predict" anything about the future, especially given our current location in the flow of time and the current state of our sociopolis (which seems like a better term than "nation" at this point in history). Given the myopia of the "predictions" at hand, might I toss in my two bits:

1. Internet speeds can, theoretically, top internal data bus transfer.
2. Video cards (being highly streamlined FPUs, geared for spacial calculation)
3. Distributed processing, BEOWULF
4. Distributed filesystems, TORRENT
5. All of the above built into a strain of "Super-Linux" kernel

And hell, while we're at it,

7. Human evolution

As always is the case with massive transitions, it's been more or less apparent for some time, but you have to be a bit insane to see it. We're literally dealing with the end of corporation, decentralized supercomputing in the hands of the masses. IT? Talk to your neighbor, for Godsake! And what was it that Marx said?

Changing the world (1)

DavidJSimpson (899508) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604279)

Gartner is not suggesting that these are the top 10 new technologies, only that these are the top 10 technologies which will change the world over the next 4 years (presumably the technologies which will cause the greatest change).

Unified I/O (1)

HockeyPuck (141947) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604333)

Gartner is missing Unified I/O which will enable servers to have a single adapter (or dual for redundancy) that is carrying both IP and FCoE (FibreChannel over Ethernet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCoE [wikipedia.org] ) over a common 10GigE infrastructure. Greatly reducing cabling, management and number of connections to the server.

This isn't akin iSCSI which had the painful overhead of TCP optimizations. While not aimed at the SMB market (who iSCSI is fine for), users that manage midsize to large datacenters will not be faced with the problems at layer 8 (politics of who manages the switches, LAN/SAN or for bladecenters server team?).

lame (1)

naniiyer (1298859) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604353)

pretty lame predictions. anyone in IT would have said the same (except for Augmented Reality - think it must be to do with gaming - but havent heard that before). well I expect location blogs and location social networking the next big thing..

Virtualization adds work. (1)

miffo.swe (547642) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604381)

I fail to see how virtualization can take substantial work away from any sane it department. From my own experiences it can add quite a bit of work you didnt have before. For in my work as an admin very little work has with the physical machines to do. Installing the OS takes no time at all theese days, its configuring the services that takes time. Managing SAN and a virtual enviroments takes quite some work and adds a fair bit of work you didnt have before. Virtualization is an answer if you have many small lightly loaded machines or want a test enviroment. For a heavily loaded server its just insane and a complete waste of resources. What use is a 10% saving in electricity when you loose 30% efficiency on the virtualization?

The virtualization fad will probably level out when enough people have tried it and seen what areas it fits into and not.

I am the Cloud! (1)

fyoder (857358) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604387)

I AM THE GREAT AND MIGHTY CLOUD! IT is dead! I shall service all your needs!

Ignore the people behind the curtain, and be sure to hire a 'cloud priest' to help interface your devices with me.

THAT IS ALL! Good day!

The real Gartner study (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23604439)

Can be found here [gartner.com] . As you can see: nothing to see here, move along.

Re:The real Gartner study (1)

overtly_demure (1024363) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604801)

Yikes! October 9, 2007! Not only is it bullshit, but it's stale bullshit!

I Will Turn in My Keys (1)

cptsexy (948021) | more than 6 years ago | (#23604795)

right now if the secretary could remember her password from the start of her vacation to the end. The need for IT staff is not going to go away. Nearly half my work now is more business analytics and helping users understand how to write queries and understand data. Along with resetting passwords, fixing printers, fixing BSOD. All the virtualization in the world cannot protect you from the BSOD! Even if you take applications and servers away, you still have a wide range of users using client machines for access. The IT Department is going away no time soon.

World??? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#23605007)

Does anyone else wonder whether anything outside of the IT realm might possibly be important to the future?

Gartner couldn't reveal a flashlight in a darkroom (1)

Fefe (6964) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605117)

Why are these people still in business?

I can't remember a single insightful thing they ever had to say.

Their predictions are usually blindingly obvious or wrong.

Management speak (1)

heroine (1220) | more than 6 years ago | (#23605179)

"IT is going to become much more about information and how it can be used to help the business grow and prosper."

Management speak just keeps getting more & more powerful. Feel the power of these sentences.

"you need to know what your firm does, and even more importantly, how it does it."

We need to take charge people.

IT is going to be much more about IT. Got to grow & prosper to grow and prosper. Got to succeed to succeed. Got to build the makings of greatness to make greatness.

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