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Analyst Predicts Android Overtaking iPhone In 2012

ScuttleMonkey posted more than 4 years ago | from the crystal-balls-and-voodoo dept.

Communications 385

Market watcher Gartner is claiming that by Q4 2012 Google's Android smartphone OS will have overtaken Apple's iPhone. Currently only the sixth most popular phone OS, Android is set to rocket into second place behind Symbian if the predictions are to be believed. The reason for the changing of the guard is that "many handset makers are betting their futures on Android, while Apple is just one company." 2012 rankings place Symbian at the top followed by Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Blackberry."

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I dont' see it this way (2, Insightful)

fyngyrz (762201) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696599)

The iPhone is ahead because of the apps and the highly capable hardware. If Android phones don't step up to the plate app-wise, AND touch-wise, accelerometer-wise, GPS-wise, compass-wise, iTunes-wise... then you're just going to have a lot of companies betting on the wrong horse.

OTOH, if Apple doesn't start letting other companies than ATT into the game so that rural areas can have the phone, there will always be an opening for other phones.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

crolix (833807) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696681)

My bet is on Nokia becoming #1: http://maemocentral.com/2009/10/09/unboxing-the-nokia-n900/ [maemocentral.com]

Re:I dont' see it this way (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697001)

My bet is on Nokia becoming #1: http://maemocentral.com/2009/10/09/unboxing-the-nokia-n900/ [maemocentral.com]

They allready are...

Re:I dont' see it this way (0)

joaommp (685612) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697413)

Isn't 2012 also the year the Mayans predicted the end of the world?

Re:I dont' see it this way (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29696701)

What are you talking about? Is this another issue with dumbed down US market? I don't own an Android phone, but I played with one. Has touch, has accelerometer, has GPS, has compass, has apps. Fuck iTunes.

Re:I dont' see it this way (5, Insightful)

Inakizombie (1081219) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697411)

Seconded. I don't need to attach my G1 to a computer to do any sort of updates or activation, and all the hardware features you describe have been in the G1 since day one. And yes, with the 1.6 update it has multi-touch.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

cabjf (710106) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696721)

This is just an analyst's prediction though. So a heaping teaspoon of salt is required while reading. Sure it's possible, but is it really likely at this point?

Re:I dont' see it this way (4, Insightful)

rcolbert (1631881) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696781)

iTunes-wise...

QFT - Phones, service, apps, etc. are all fine, but iTunes is really the killer app or Trojan Horse depending on your point of view. I don't see any application out there to manage content that's nearly as robust and sustainable as iTunes. There might be desktop applications that are better at one thing or another, but the whole package is compelling. I believe most people trust that iTunes and the Apple store will be there years down the road, and are more willing to bet their music libraries on Apple's reputation. Show me the iTunes killer first, then let's talk about an iPhone killer. Otherwise, we're putting the cart before the trojan horse.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Raffaello (230287) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696809)

how is this not modded insightful?

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

amicusNYCL (1538833) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697079)

Because it doesn't take a lot to write an application to manage media on an Android device, and by 2012 I'm sure Google will have something out that will have blown iTunes away. If you think that Google is not already working on something like that, you're naive.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Bassman59 (519820) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697387)

...by 2012 I'm sure Google will have something out that will have blown iTunes away. If you think that Google is not already working on something like that, you're naive.

Obviously Google is working on something like that. Of course, don't expect Apple to stand still ...

Re:I dont' see it this way (2, Interesting)

dbcad7 (771464) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697281)

Because it's not, really. It's a rant on how someone loves their phone, and that no one could possibly make a better one. It's not insightful to ignore what is going on in the market. It's not insightful to ignore what's going on in the world outside your own. It's a comment from someone who most likely has never even used an Android phone.. most "iPhone will never be beat" comments are written by such people.. It ignores the fact that within a month, in the US there will be 7 Android competitors across various carriers, and that by this time next year it will be at least double that.. Maybe the iPhone is just that great, that it can outsell all these models across all these carriers.. or maybe the projections are understated, and it won't even take that long.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

poetmatt (793785) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697285)

because itunes is a piece of crap whether you buy music through them or not?

there are lots of services way better.

Oh, and the G1 can do itunes.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Daishiman (698845) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697043)

Where you see integration, I see a disgusting bloated mess of a mega-proprietary, slow app that wants to do crap I don't want it to (I really, really, hate having to load my music collection into iTunes to load into an iPod Touch) and tries to plug in products I have no interest in getting, not to mention an interface that has nothing to do with the OS I've used it in.

God I hate iTunes. I might consider getting an iPhone if it weren't for the fact that it's chained and encumbered to iTunes.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Adolf Hipster (1486687) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697145)

I really, really, hate having to load my music collection into iTunes to load into an iPod Touch Um...You don't have to do that. I just open iTunes and drop mp3s directly to the ipod touch. Works just fine without having to import them. On the other hand, itunes is painfully slow and crappy and has a horrible interface so that's not really saying much.

Re:I dont' see it this way (2, Insightful)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696803)

The iPhone OS is pretty nice but the lack of multitasking is annoying.
The hardware is good but outside of looks it isn't better than what HTC and others offer. The actual hardware cpu/gpu of the ZuneHD is much better than iPhones.
iTunes? who cares. I have an iPod Touch and I hardly ever use iTunes I do everything over wifi.

1. Apps. Android needs more developers for more apps. With more android phones hitting the market the developers will follow so will the apps.
2. Betting .Apple is not selling the iPhone OS to other companies so they can not bet on the iPhone so Android, S60, and WindowsMobile are the only games in town. Android seems like the best bet to me.
3. Hardware The new Samsung Moment, HTC Hero, and the Motorola Clik all look like very good phones and in some ways are better than the iPhone GS.
4. Carriers. Android is going to be available in the US on T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, and probably AT&T soon. Unlocked phones are already available in the EU so Android is available on a lot more carriers.

The iPhone is a very nice phone but AT&T is a lot more expensive than Sprint and Sprint's customer service has gotten a lot better. If I could get an iPhone on Sprint I would buy one but I will probably get a Hero or a Moment.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

jabithew (1340853) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697223)

In the UK the iPhone is no-longer O2 exclusive; Vodafone and Orange will soon have it as well, and there seems to be no reason all carriers couldn't have it, other than Apple's ability to keep pace with demand. Is this not happening in the US?

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

MobileTatsu-NJG (946591) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697377)

The iPhone is a very nice phone but AT&T is a lot more expensive than Sprint...

Is it? I went straight from Sprint to AT&T/iPhone. I pay $10/mo. more than I did with Sprint, but now both my GF and I have unlimited data plans. (When I was with Sprint I had a data plan on my phone but not my GF's.)

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

GooberToo (74388) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697397)

1. Apps. Android needs more developers for more apps. With more android phones hitting the market the developers will follow so will the apps.

Maybe. Piracy is killing developers on a massive scale. Even the most successful Android developers barely make enough to scrape by (~63.00/day for two top selling apps). Piracy for Android exists for many reasons. One often cited is pay apps are not available in many markets; so people pirate simply because its not otherwise available. Once people start pirating apps, it seems many don't reconsidering supporting their developers once pay apps are available in their market. Even after excusing the pirates where because pay apps are not available in their market, piracy is still killing the platform.

Without the ability to actual make money on Android, commercial developer interest in non-ad driven applications will continue lag. On the other hand, ad-driven apps continue to grow on the platform while continuing to piss off the user base. After all, people are tired of bloated apps and seeing ads all the time. Those users pissed off about plentiful ad driven apps, blame your local pirate, or even yourself for not purchasing more applications. Developers need your support!

Carriers. Android is going to be available in the US on T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, and probably AT&T soon. Unlocked phones are already available in the EU so Android is available on a lot more carriers.

All major us carriers will have a phone within the next six to eight months; with AT&T being the furtherest out. Within the next six months, Motorola alone should have ten Android offerings. Many other hardware manufacuturers are also jumping on the Android train. Both Garmin and Asus have both said they are dumping their other OSs and using Android. Most all carriers will have at least one Android offer. Several will have two or more. At least two will have three or more Android offerings within the next four months.

As for AT&T, don't get excited. It looks like they are working with Dell?!? to provide them an Android offering. Thus far, Dell's Android offering sucks to the extent, everyone but a carrier in China has passed. Unless Dell makes huge hardware improvements, AT&T will not offer an Android phone worth talking about.

Long story short, if you want good Android applications, us users need to support our developers by purchasing their applications. Of course, it doesn't hurt to kick your local pirate in the nuts for causing a long list of problems in the first place. Remember, purchased applications are supported applications. Applications which are supported are those which receive continued development.

One last note about piracy. If you have a pirated application on your phone right now, by keeping it installed you are assigning value to that application. By taking something of value to which you have no right, you are stealing. You are a thief, hurting the application's developer and damaging the platform as a whole. You can easily address the situation by simply purchasing the applications which you have installed. Go support your developers and the platform. Stop stealing.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

alen (225700) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696821)

iphone has the same hardware as most of the other cell phones, including the Pre. latest ARM core CPU, infeneon 3G radio, broadcom wifi chip.

iphone only became a hit with the 3G when it got Exchange support and the app store. before that it was another pretty thing apple made up with no features that the cult of steve loved

Re:I dont' see it this way (4, Insightful)

sopssa (1498795) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696827)

As compared to US market, in Europe it has been pretty common to buy your phone from store and *then* get a contract for it (or prepaid, refillable SIM card). The "make a contract with us, get a phone and pay for it monthly" came maybe 4-5 years ago, and they're not still even locked the operator you bought it from - you can switch to another operator and just pay the monthly price for the phone.

Interestingly, iPhone changed this a little bit in Europe where people haven't got used to it. It was exclusively available from single operators per country and you had to make a contract with them too. A bad market for Apple.

I rather buy the phone once than get tricked in to paying more to it, but just monthly for a long time. Even more so if its locked to a single operator.

That is why Android will be a lot more succesful in Europe than iPhone is. And what comes to software and the phones supporting Android, theres still only a few phones out and software starting to come out too as the userbase grows. This is different from Apple's way who just made a single phone, so it takes more time to grow.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

salarelv (1314017) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697111)

HTC Hero is quite popular in Europe. I am getting one on Thuesday. Some shop keepers told that they wondered how popular it was. Also I ordered the hero two days ago and already the price went down. Also the Hero has Flash 9 support.

Just history repeating itself? (1)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696845)

There was a time when similar things could be said about Macs. But ultimatelly other companies betting on more open solution catched up and overtook them.

I suspect Apple might make similar errors with iPhone / iPhone OS...

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

dvorakkeyboardrules (1652653) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696953)

I agree, the Android may catch up to the iPhone in a few years, but Apple is way, way ahead.

I own both and the iPhone hands down is better, more intuitive, more fun, more interesting, etc etc, and every day there are a gazillion new apps to play with

I use the GPS on my iPhone constantly, and I love having instant access to the internet to look things up -- info, phone numbers, addresses, whatever. I don't really use it for games or movies, but it is nice having my music collection with me.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Stradivarius (7490) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696959)

My view is a bit different although I think you're close. I'm not counting Apple out but my reasons are different.

The touch screen, accelerometer, music store, etc. are all things other phones have. Some phones even do some of those things really well. But the iPhone was the one that did them all really well, and did them first. So even though other phones have comparable hardware, few have the same polish and none have Apple's first-mover advantage.

What remains to be seen is whether the first-mover advantage will be enough for them, as the competition increasingly has feature parity and possibly lower cost. On the one hand, a widely available application base was hugely valuable for computers, and phones are increasingly just ultra-portable computers. On the other hand, most of the apps most people would want on a phone, aside from perhaps games, IMO are already available on competitors like the Pre (and Palm's tiny app store is just a faint shadow of Apple's).

The other thing not to forget is the Apple has formidable marketing skills, and that matters a lot. These are the folks who managed to create and sustain an almost fanatical loyalty among their Macintosh customers, even during a period of years when the Mac was technically inferior to other companies' offerings. If they can do something similar with the iPhone, which at present is king of the hill, they'll do quite well.

Re:I dont' see it this way (5, Insightful)

znu (31198) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696965)

Yeah. Isn't this exactly what we heard about Microsoft's PlaysForSure platform? "It's a whole multivendor platform. Apple is just one company. Of course PlaysForSure will win." How did that turn out again?

I'm not necessarily saying the iPhone will become (and remain) as dominant in the smart phone market as the iPod is in the music player market, mind you. But the specific reasoning behind this specific prediction is clearly faulty. Tech industry analysts tend to assume that there's something inherently attractive to consumers about multivendor platforms, but the consumer market has demonstrated several times that this is just not the case. Consumers don't care about multivendor platforms in any abstract sense; consumers buy products, not platforms. They'll only gravitate toward multivendor platforms because of the specific products offered within those platforms.

If, for most people, there is no specific Android product (i.e. combination of device and software) that is superior to the iPhone, there is no reason the iPhone cannot outsell all Android products combined.

Note, again, that I'm not necessarily saying this will happen, just that there's no inherent reason to believe it can't.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

**loki969** (880141) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697059)

Androids advantage will be that lots of phone makers can use it for free. This means there will be >100 Android phones in 3 years, while Apple still only got one. Android may not be as refined as the iphoneOS in some areas but it kicks its ass in others. It will catch up eventually and the hardware evolves much faster on the Android platform because there are more phone makers.

You don't need to have a Mac for Android development, you don't have to jump through hops to add your app to the market and you don't have to wait for 4+ weeks to get your app approved or rejected, which means that you wasted your time writing an application for that platform.

Re:I dont' see it this way (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697141)

highly capable hardware

Is that code for "expensive?" I don't expect "highly capable" anything keeping a market lead, whether you're talking about cars or phones or whatever.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

JackDW (904211) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697181)

If Android phones don't step up to the plate app-wise, AND touch-wise, accelerometer-wise, GPS-wise, compass-wise, iTunes-wise... then you're just going to have a lot of companies betting on the wrong horse.

But other handset manufacturers can't make iphones. They have to make phones with an OS that somebody is willing to licence to them. In itself, this guarantees that plenty of non-Apple phones will be manufactured and sold. Manufacturers have no choice but to compete.

It's just like how Mac can't kill the PC platform. Thousands of companies make PCs. One company makes Macs. If you want to build computers, they have to be PCs.

Re:I dont' see it this way (1)

Thelasko (1196535) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697201)

The way I see it the company with the hippest [youtube.com] music, [youtube.com] multiplied by the number of famous people [youtube.com] in it's advertisements will come out on top.

Symbian and Windows Mobile (4, Interesting)

sopssa (1498795) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696627)

I wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian if other users want to run them.

Windows Mobile I still except to stick around, it's quite nice system and you can run any apps on it (I have HTC so I only have experience with their modifications to it, but still)

However it doesn't really come as a surprise that Android is going to climb it's place up, and great that it is. Even if iPhone is a nice phone OS, it's way too locked down, only runs on Apple's closed phones and apps store.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29696715)

> I wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian if other users want to run them.

This is not true at all. You will need a signing key IF your application needs to be able to interface with the phone book or such, but all other things like bluetooth or wlan/3g and everything else works without.

I do agree that Symbian C++ is terrible however. Or at least was before they ported STL to it.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (1)

sopssa (1498795) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696901)

This changed in Symbian 9.1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbian_OS#Symbian_OS_9.1 [wikipedia.org]

Symbian OS 9.1

Released early 2005. It includes many new security related features, particularly a controversial platform security module facilitating mandatory code signing. Symbian argues that applications and content, and therefore a developer's investment, are better protected than ever; however others contend that the requirement that every application be signed (and thus approved) violates the rights of the end-user, the owner of the phone, and limits the amount of free software available.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (2, Informative)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696943)

Wrong, some funcionalities require certification, not all apps per se (and it's actually quite trival to work around; at least on typical unlocked phone available in Europe, don't know how it is in the US...)

Better accept that Symbian stays - it still has almost half of whole smartphone market, and Nokia seem to be starting to push it into mainstream (true mainstream, occupied by S40 / feature phones now). Also...it might not be that bad, Symbian^3 or 4 will supposedly rely on Qt.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (1)

e2d2 (115622) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696983)

And to add to that, having developed for both iPhone and Android - Android is simply a better platform to develop for. Not because of objective C, that's okay. It's the lack of features such as multi-tasking and simple cross-app data sharing that makes Android shine over iPhone OS. (Just my opinion!)

But I think I'll take the pragmatic programming approach and develop for both. Cross platform dev for both will be the hotness by then IMHO.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (1)

xednieht (1117791) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696985)

Very true. Apples policies on apps is far from Genius. Even patches to existing apps that are already approved have to undergo their review process, meanwhile our customers sit and wait for bug fixes.

Go Android Go.

Mod Down: Parent is a Liar (1, Interesting)

mpapet (761907) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697139)

wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian

Oh really? THen how would the MAME port for Symbian ever work on my phone? How about any one of a number of openSSH clients for Symbian?

Windows Mobile I still except to stick around, it's quite nice system and you can run any apps
WTF? I know a few people that have regretted buying Microsoft's offering inside a phone. I know I'm not alone.

Seriously, you guys don't know what you have been missing with Symbian devices. Tons of applications, stable OS, excellent media Freedom.

Now that the OS is supposed to be GPL'd at some point, it might help it's case against more rudimentary products from Apple and Google.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile (1)

athakur999 (44340) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697343)

Nokia is starting to release phones with its Maemo operating system. Maemo is Linux based and uses a Mozilla-based web browser. The new N900 is, I believe, the first phone to use it.

Nokia hasn't made any statements about phasing out Symbian in favor of Maemo but it at least it's a good start.

Gartner (5, Insightful)

larry bagina (561269) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696631)

You lost me at Gartner.

Re:Gartner (1)

tyrione (134248) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696669)

You lost me at Gartner.

Exactly. Sorry, but I'd love to have these paid to make a report analysts put their reputations and jobs on the line when it is readily apparent that the iPhone market penetration has only just begun.

.."the iPhone market penetration"... (1)

CdBee (742846) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696903)

Apple will probably never make a $400 netbook or a phone that's cheap enough - with or without operator subsidy - for the basic-level phone deals. That limits their market significantly.

Re:Gartner (2, Interesting)

NoYob (1630681) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697291)

Actually 30 years ago, Gartner, as in the Gartner got a reputation as having extremely accurate predictions and knowledge of the IT industry - this was in the 70s and the 80s. Of course, there wasn't as much going on in the 70s as there is now. He built up a reputation and a business.

Now, he has a bunch of associates working there doing the actual predictions and analysis. For what that's worth.

Gartner himself, I believe, is on a tropical private island and surround by beautiful naked women.

End of the world (1)

cld71 (7166) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696643)

Isn't this about the time the end of the world?
Maybe this is what ends it...

Just kidding...

I could see that (2, Funny)

wcrowe (94389) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696651)

Sure, I could see Sybian [wikipedia.org] at the top.

What?

Ohhh, Symbian... Uh... Sorry...

Re:I could see that (0, Flamebait)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697029)

When will you people stop this "Sybian joke"? Not only the toy is quite a niche/local product, generally not getting into the picture (mind?) when somebody hears the name "Symbian", but also...was this EVER funny?

Re:I could see that (1)

TeXMaster (593524) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697305)

Sure, I could see Sybian [wikipedia.org] at the top.

Actually, that's more likely to be at the bottom.

No Maemo (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29696655)

Played with an N900 today. It is quite the OS.

Oh that's convenient (0, Offtopic)

commodoresloat (172735) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696659)

Sure, we'll beat the iPhone.... in 2012, right after the world ends [go.com] !

Suckers!!

Re:Oh that's convenient (2, Funny)

jmerlin (1010641) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696829)

Pretty sure that's what will cause the end of the Earth. Let's see if we can get the Discovery Channel to do a special on it.

maybe good phones ?? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29696661)

if we can get decent handsets like the samsung i8510 / i8910 on android i'd buy one. 8.1-12Mpx camera, GPS, etc would be nice.

WinMo trap (5, Insightful)

BadAnalogyGuy (945258) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696663)

The problem with WinMo isn't the OS itself. It's that Microsoft never pushed OEMs to build much more into their devices than the existing apps and services supplied with the WinMo development kit. So it's a half-baked system sold as a complete solution.

Google Android has the exact same problem. Google is focused on developing a great OS, but the better the OS is out of the box, the less likely OEMs are to develop their own IP and create real differentiation, not to mention a truly user-centric experience.

This is where Apple's iPhone really shines. Since it is in itself a final product, Apple can exert a huge amount of effort in order to meet their own user-centric standards. The product succeeds or fails as a product, not as a delivery of middleware to handset manufacturers.

Re:WinMo trap (4, Informative)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697025)

But the iPhone isn't the top smart phone.
Blackberry is in the US and Symbian is in the world.

Android has the same advantage that Windows does on the Desktop.
Lots of vendors.
HTC, Motorola, and Samsung all have android phones. In the US you can get Android phones from T-Mobile with Sprint comming on line next week and Verizon coming soon.
LG I hear is also going to have an Android phone soon.

I wouldn't bet that Android doesn't come out with a bigger market share than Apple.

Of course I an still wondering why QNX never got into the smartphone market.

Re:WinMo trap (1)

EvilBudMan (588716) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697161)

Where do I get me a paranoid android phone?

Re:WinMo trap (1)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697071)

Upcoming Android phone from Sony Ericsson shows quite some amount of UI customisation; it's not the only one from what I remember.

Re:WinMo trap (1)

RiotingPacifist (1228016) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697169)

Phone companies want to compete with the iPhone, android is just a tool that allows them to do that. I think the fact you have 2 companies 1 working on software to beat apple's, and 1 working on hardware to beat apple's is a strength not a weakness. What they need to add is a 3rd company to bitchslap apple's marketing into line. a TV campaign along the lines:
"Because we don't arbitrary reject apps our app store is growing faster than any other leading smartphone's"
"By putting unlocked devices in the hands of developers, our apps are fixed in days not months, allowing you to get back to work"
"When you buy a * phones, It's yours and you can run programs from or us, the choice is your"

Stupid. (3, Insightful)

jcr (53032) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696679)

The guy's just counting vendors, not counting users and apps. This is the kind of idiot who believes a spreadsheet jockey who says "if we spend enough on advertising, we'll make a fortune!"

-jcr

Re:Stupid. (1)

rwv (1636355) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697407)

spreadsheet jockey

CNN published a list of the best 50 jobs of 2009 today. I didn't see this one, though "analyst" did make the list. :)

Biased like crazy (5, Insightful)

mysidia (191772) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696711)

"many handset makers are betting their futures on Android, while Apple is just one company."

Lots of companies bet their futures on Linux 5 years ago and are doing just fine, but has Linux surpassed Windows as top desktop OS?

Google is just one company.

Microsoft is just one company.

Just because some handset makers are betting on the future of Android, doesn't mean their bets are panning out.

Oh yeah.. and their bets can pan out without their OS overtaking the iPhone OS.

Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (4, Insightful)

popo (107611) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696727)

I've been an analyst. I've been a consultant. Does anyone realize how little it takes to be either of the two?

If we simply replace the word "analyst" with the word "dude" the headline more accurately reflects the absurdity of this piece (and its utter lack of press-worthiness).

i.e: "Dude thinks Android will overtake the iPhone by 2012". ...Yeah, and?

What's worse is that Wall Street plays this game daily to make non-news look like news, and to make bad news look like good news. Did your company lose money *again* this quarter? No worries, you still beat the expectation of some analyst, er "dude", somewhere.

This is non-news. Wake me up when Android actually makes a dent in the market. Some dude somewhere thinks it will? Great. Some other dude somewhere thinks the opposite. Must we write an article every time some moderately paid asshole has an opinion?

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (4, Funny)

swanzilla (1458281) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696791)

i.e: "Dude thinks Android will overtake the iPhone by 2012". ...Yeah, and?

The Analyst abides.

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (1, Flamebait)

farble1670 (803356) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696861)

gartner is not some "dude". just because you've been an unqualified consultant, it doesn't follow that every other consultant is also unqualified.

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (-1, Flamebait)

popo (107611) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696885)

And you know who I am, asshole?

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (0, Troll)

farble1670 (803356) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697077)

that's an awfully big word, are you sure you are qualified to use it?

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697113)

well, we all know you are a douchebag now, so...

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (1)

amicusNYCL (1538833) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697159)

The dude who runs the "#1 site for free tarot and astrology?"

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697257)

... or maybe "consults" to it?

lol.

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (1)

lordandmaker (960504) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696927)

It's hardly as if Garter have a reputation for accurate predictions based on thorough research, though.

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697041)

Seriously, if you're going to make that argument: Don't stick up for Gartner of all people. He's exactly one of those guys.

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"?? (1)

EvilBudMan (588716) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697233)

---I've been an analyst. I've been a consultant. Does anyone realize how little it takes to be either of the two?---

No....

How do I get started? What does it pay? IMO I have an opinion on just about everything. And...I can be an asshole.

Where do I sign up for this gig?

2012 (1)

SloppySevenths (1592383) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696733)

Wouldn't have figured the Mayan prediction would include an Android. Clearly ahead of their time.

3 words into the summary and its already (1)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696751)

discredited. Seriously, does anyone actually listen to Gartner anymore? (The same ones that said over 50% of US IT jobs would be sent overseas by now, when the real number is maybe 1/5th of that). Pretty much all of their "predictions" are either a) wrong or b) bleedingly obvious.

The Android may or may not overtake the iPhone, but we need real research, not Gartner crap, before we can say so definitively.

iPod Killer (4, Insightful)

whisper_jeff (680366) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696761)

Isn't that the same year the iPod Killer is supposed to be released?

Yeah. That's what I thought. Talk to me when something is actually worth talking about.

Re:iPod Killer (1)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697165)

Since the article apparently talks about whole world picture (otherwise it wouldn't count Symbian as dominating the place) - iPod, worldwide, was just one of many mp3 players; and not very attractive/popular due to price. For some time it doesn't stand a chance against ordinary mobile phones, from which people usually listen to music on the go now.

and the iTunes store was crushed by rivals in 2008 (5, Insightful)

enkidu (13673) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696765)

By that same logic, the iTunes store should have been crushed by rivals (amazon, walmart, emusic et al) in 2007. Guess what? Didn't happen that way. I think that android will gain marketshare, but most of it will be from Symbian and WinCE Mobile (or whatever they're calling it this year). Apple will also gain market share at an equal or greater pace, fueled by the advantage of the app store. Focused competition will beat apple (remember Palm vs Newton?), but unfocused, dispersed competition is going to have a hard time beating Apple at their own game.

Re:and the iTunes store was crushed by rivals in 2 (1)

sznupi (719324) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697329)

The summary talks about the market in which Symbian dominates. That means it isn't US-centric. On the scale of the world iTunes isn't that strong.

Also, why do you all forget about another possibility - that Android (and Symbian, and...) will grow mainly thanks to people moving en masse from feature phones to smartphones? You know, the latter are a very small part of the whole picture now. That will cheange when they will get cheaper. Symbian goes there. Android goes there. Other players...not so much. And Apple almost certainly doesn't want to (their mistake, will be just like with Macs vs. PCs in the 80's & 90's...)

Similar arguments (1)

Captain Spam (66120) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696771)

Market watcher Gartner is claiming that by Q4 2012 Google's Android smartphone OS will have overtaken Apple's iPhone.

*sigh* Yeah, yeah, and that's also the year of the Linux desktop, and when BSD will finally be dead, and when Duke Nukem Forever is going to be released, and...

Android + Shanzai = Number 1 (2, Interesting)

pieterh (196118) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696785)

If you've ever tried a KIRF $50 Chinese smartphone you'll see that all that has been missing is Android. The Shanzai ability to innovate in hardware is so powerful that I predict this is the future model for building phones, computers, and such.

All that's been missing is a decent free OS.

While the Shanzai firms take over most of the world's production of smartphones, and sell their designs and models to Nokia, Samsung, Apple, and Microsoft, they will also be taking over PMPs, netbooks, and god knows what else.

And finally we'll all be using $20 smartphones and $75 computers. I cannot wait.

Re:Android + Shanzai = Number 1 (1)

cdrguru (88047) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697195)

And finally we'll all be using $20 smartphones and $75 computers. I cannot wait.

And I can't wait to hire software engineers for $3500 a year. Of course, nobody is going to be employed in the US in any technical position anymore - why would they, when any company in the US just has their products stolen and copied cheaper in China. I guess there is also the idea that there isn't any point to paying anyone for software development because it is all free now, right?

Sure, you can have your cheap stuff. Just remember who is being paid to make it. Won't be you. Or your neighbor. Both of you can commuite together to bag groceries at the food bank.

Two Predictions (3, Insightful)

BryanL (93656) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696813)

I have 2 predictions for Android (though this might seem obvious to some people.)

First, if Android overtakes Apple, it will be because Android eats into the market share of other mobile handsets/OSes. It probably won't hurt Apple as much as other companies.

Second, Android probably won't overtake Apple any time soon. Having a single company means a focused business strategy. Having many companies involved means a market strategy that is unfocused and hard to define. For every 2 steps forward the Android companies make, they will take 1 step backwards. There are just too many disparate interests involved. If Android surpasses the iPhone, it will be long after 2012.

Re:Two Predictions (1)

Daishiman (698845) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697107)

I disagree with this. Already there's a substantial bunch of iPhone users that are dissatisfied with either the phone or the carrier and have plans for switching. I'm sure Apple is already moving to counter this, but the iPhone has locked itself into a corner with their development policies and single-tasking OS.

Re:Two Predictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697235)

What seems obvious to me is many different companies use Symbian and it's #1. How did the Symbian OS become #1 if it was going up against other more focused business strategies?

Perhaps the Gartner analyst believes more and more people will begin using Smartphones and will need a "Smart OS." If Symbian fails to deliver a "Smart OS" for the new generation of phones and prices keep falling with smart phones, Android could easily replace Symbian as the #1.

Here's where it lost me (4, Interesting)

UnknowingFool (672806) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696847)

Windows Mobile's share will grow from 10.3 per cent to 12.8 per cent during the same quarters, Gartner added, which will see it remain as the fourth most popular phone-based OS.

So Gartner is saying WinMo will grow. Based on what? Their last release 6.5 is being panned by many reviewers as window-dressing of 6.1 with few new features. The only thing that WinMo users can hope is that WinMo 7 will catch up to iPhone, Android, Palm OS, etc. But at the earliest this is a year away and no one has seen it yet. By that time, WinMo competitors are not likely to be sitting idle and will be continually updating their software.

Very large assumtion that (1)

baomike (143457) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696909)

Gartner has a clue about what they are talking about.

NB: non cell phone user, so I really don't care who "wins".

Is that you Ballmer? (5, Informative)

tylersoze (789256) | more than 4 years ago | (#29696975)

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2007/04/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share.ars [arstechnica.com]

Re:Is that you Ballmer? (1)

popo (107611) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697307)

Further proof that Ballmer is, and always will be, a complete buffoon.

What's that old maxim about opinions and assholes?

only 2 more years of unimaginable profit (1)

goffster (1104287) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697023)

drat!

OMFG are you kidding me?! (1)

erroneus (253617) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697125)

In what universe?! The only way that could happen is if Apple were to discontinue the iPhone. I think my comment history largely speaks for itself. I disapprove of the iPhone for a variety of reasons, but the public likes what it likes and we don't need to go into the causes. But the most powerful reason the public likes iPhone does not presently apply to Android. So unless they are predicting a huge and successful marketing push that would best Apple's, nothing will change the status quo we are seeing today.

Re:OMFG are you kidding me?! (1)

farble1670 (803356) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697283)

oh you read slashdot a lot you must be an authority on such issues? actually, there's probably an inverse relationship.

Microsoft Loses (1)

geoffrobinson (109879) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697127)

It seems that Android will kill Windows Mobile. That appears to be the real story. Most non-Apple/RIM companies will get behind Android and avoid Windows.

i refuse to believe this (1)

nimbius (983462) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697155)

for in 2012 when i am fending off the zombie apocalypse with an over-under shotgun from behind a burned out krispy kreme I'll have at very least the comfort of knowing I wasnt deluded into believing an open-source operating system through its own merits and achievements actually became more popular and market acceptable than its proprietary, closed source, and heavily regulated alternative. its just NOT HOW PEOPLE WORK, DAMNIT!

Is Gartner Group a paid Microsoft shill? (1)

walterbyrd (182728) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697199)

Gartner declares Android a second place winner in 2012. Why?


> Looking into its crystal ball, Gartner Group has predicted that Google's Android will become the second largest smartphone platform by 2012. Problem is, nobody's talking about how terrible Gartner is at predicting things, or that Gartner's "research" has historically been paid for by special interests. So why the headlines?

> But calling Windows Mobile a dud at this point isn't very bold, even for Gartner, a group that has dutifully suckled the teat of Bill Gates throughout a series of sour spells. Microsoft's shill budget for Windows Mobile is probably as sad as the beleaguered mobile platform's web browser. That would certainly explain why a Gartner analyst wrote a month ago that he was "concerned about its future and I worry that WM7 [in 2010] could even be the last throw of the dice [for Microsoft]."

> In one of Microsoft's antitrust suits, Gartner's core competency as a shill group was detailed when confidential internal memos surfaced showing that Microsoft had paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in an effort that "successfully lobbied and changed the Gartner Group TCO [Total Cost of Ownership] model to show Windows as providing the lowest overall TCO [in comparison to NCs]."

> In contrast, RIM and Apple largely live or die on the merits of their products, not on the spin that chattering analysts can give their products. Tomorrow's Android makers are today's Windows Mobile makers, and Gartner is just doing the best it can to keep Windows Mobile alive in principle, even as the life is draining out of its frail earthly corpse.

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/10/08/gartner-declares-android-a-second-place-winner-in-2012-why/ [roughlydrafted.com]

OK (3, Funny)

PinkyGigglebrain (730753) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697239)

Maybe its just me but has anyone else noticed how almost everything seems to be happening during or in 2012?

What about... (1)

Pulin Shah (1209210) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697247)

What about Palm/WebOs?

Gartner's other claims... (1)

His Shadow (689816) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697287)

They probably produced a paper about how everyone was going to own a SPOT watch as well...

What about WebOS from Palm (1)

Harlan879 (878542) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697301)

I don't think I'd predict that WebOS [wikipedia.org] will be up near Android or the iPhone in 2012, but it'll likely still be around. The original analysis doesn't even mention them. Many people think that WebOS has the best technology of any of the existing mobile OSs, although they obviously need more apps (coming soon [slashdot.org] ) and more phones (coming soon [palm.com] ).

I'm also an analyst! (1)

Hurricane78 (562437) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697319)

And I predict that I will be rich, because there is this incredible hype around people giving me money for no reason!

Rich! RICH I tell you!

Unfortunately it will happen on the same day as the end of the world.

These the same yahoo's? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#29697337)

That predicted the Palm Pre would be a problem for the iPhone too?

Oh, and I predict... (1)

Hurricane78 (562437) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697345)

...that ol' big daddy Nokia will put those two fighting dwarf children in the opposite corners of the room until they behave again! ^^

Android vs. iPhone = Software vs. Hardware (1)

popo (107611) | more than 4 years ago | (#29697365)

IMHO it isn't really possible to compare a software product with a hardware/software product anyway... We're talking about two different things here.

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