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Data-Sifting For Timely Intelligence Still an Elusive Goal

timothy posted more than 4 years ago | from the even-if-you-like-all-the-sifting dept.

The Military 131

gyrogeerloose writes "Although there was evidence to suggest that the Japanese navy was up to something in December 1941, that information was scant and came too late. Today's intelligence agencies have another problem altogether — more information than they can deal with, and computers aren't helping as much as one might expect for reasons that will be familiar to Slashdot readers: computers can crunch numbers faster and more accurately than humans, but they're still easily baffled by language as it is commonly used in the real world. Metaphor, slang and simple figures of speech can confuse the best algorithm and, as quoted in the linked article in the San Diego Union-Tribune, 'A system that takes a week to discover a bombing that will occur in a day isn't very useful.'"

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For example (1)

thelonious (233200) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366284)

If someone says, "I'm gonna bust a cap in the president's head", they could be referring to destroy some sort of hat or other head covering. The computer will back me up on this.

Re:For example (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30366426)

which is why it would be important for the computer to realise that a cap, of that kind, is typically worn ON the head.

do that and it's a little smarter.

though with both I and O being easily typo'ed i'm not sure it helps that much and you're probably best of flagging this for human attention based on 'president' being used.

Re:For example (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30366582)

CmdrTaco has a small dick. If you agree mod me down.

Re:For example (1)

vlm (69642) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367240)

If someone says, "I'm gonna bust a cap in the president's head", they could be referring to destroy some sort of hat or other head covering. The computer will back me up on this.

Ah that's nothing, think of all the fun when Pete Souza sends emails that he's going to "shoot the president" at a certain public appearance.

(For the google impaired, Souza was appointed by Obama to the post of "official white house photographer", and weirdly enough I believe he was also Reagans photographer)

Re:For example (2, Funny)

Lumpy (12016) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367358)

You think that is fun, Try doing a commercial shoot with a team at an airport.

"Ok, we need to set up there and there. we can start shooting when the 12:30 planes arrive to get good coverage as the most people will be here."

Homeland security and TSA people are very dumb and can not understand Film or TV jargon. Nothing like having your entire team detained past the shooting time because the morons refuse to call to administration to clear things up.

Re:For example (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368220)

You could have... you know... just told them "we're going to film some airplanes".

Re:For example (2, Insightful)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368734)

Are you a TSA agent?

HUMINT SIGINT (1, Redundant)

RogueWarrior65 (678876) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366366)

Which is why human intelligence is much more useful than signal intelligence (data mining). You can't get a sense of a person's thoughts by reading something nearly as well as you can by talking to them. IMHO, fighting any war remotely will last much longer than one fought with boots on the ground.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

L4t3r4lu5 (1216702) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366382)

Oh I don't know... "We win or we nuke you." "You win!" See? It's a question of degrees.

Incidentally, this is why we don't want Iran to become a nuclear power.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367106)

Oh shut up already. If a country X decides to threaten another country with nukes, EVERY other country that has nukes will be very displeased and tell country X to GTFO. The whole reason that nukes are great as a defense is that nobody wants to be involved in a nuclear war. Which is also why they suck for offense. The only reason we don't want some countries to have nukes is because it sucks when those things get lost/stolen/whatever. A country is unable to use nukes, but a person or an organisation is.

We're *not* afraid that Iran will declare a war on someone and threaten to use nukes, because that would be suicide for Iran. Having said that, one might suspect that if Iran were to be in possession of such weapons, those bombs might find their way into other peoples hands (on purpose or by accident).

From Irans perspective, I can imagine wanting some big bombs to discourage an American invasion (the USA seems to like invading countries in the Middle East, and a good reason for an invasion in optional...).

Or maybe Iran simply wants nuclear power and the rest of the world should just gtfo and mind their own business.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

JustOK (667959) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367356)

jeoli gayo ( !)

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

peragrin (659227) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367634)

If Iran wants nuclear power then Russia is willing to sell it to them. Nice light water reactors that can't be used to enhance uraninmum. However Iran isn't satisfied with that. They want their own complete infrastructure. The kind where they can build whatever they want including bombs.

My personalhope is that there is yet another revolution in Iran before then. Many will be dead, but things stand a chanceof being better.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

Jellybob (597204) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367868)

Hey, we could start one off, by supporting a few choice characters. I'm sure that'll go down just fine.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

downhole (831621) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369912)

With Iran, it's not that they'll get lost or stolen, it's that it puts the country possessing them in a much stronger diplomatic position. We already know that Iran is the main source of funding and weapons for most of the terrorism and unrest in the middle east (Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah, etc). The main check on that is diplomatic (sanctions, etc) and military (threat of invasion) pressure on them. Right now, Iran could potentially be invaded by the US, or by some combination of middle eastern countries, but if they have deployable nukes, invasion by other middle eastern countries becomes essentially suicidal, and invasion by the US becomes exponentially more expensive, so much so that it would take really extraordinary circumstances for it to ever happen. Even small-scale military actions at sea or with their neighbors may have a different tone when backed by a nuclear arsenal.

In addition to that, all of the other middle eastern countries would feel pressure to either put themselves explicitly under the US's protection (not likely to be very popular), or to build their own nuclear weapons (just imagine a half-dozen marginally stable countries with nuclear arsenals).

And there's also the crazy wildcard - they've been threatening to nuke Israel for years now. Are they really crazy enough to actually do it? You wouldn't think so, but if you're Israel and one nuke would wipe your whole country out, are you really willing to bet your live and the fate of your nation that the rulers of Iran aren't that crazy? Hitler told everybody pretty much what he was going to do; nobody believed that he was really that crazy, and look what happened.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (3, Interesting)

houstonbofh (602064) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366534)

Which is why human intelligence is much more useful than signal intelligence (data mining).

Exactly. If people can't sift through the mass of information (and misinformation) we have today, what hope does a computer have? Just look at how hard it is to find "The Truth" in todays news, or on the Internet...

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (2, Interesting)

flyingsquid (813711) | more than 4 years ago | (#30370072)

Exactly. If people can't sift through the mass of information (and misinformation) we have today, what hope does a computer have?

An individual person can't, the volume is too large, and the information is often dispersed. However, large networks of people could potentially gather and bring together that intelligence in a timely fashion so that it can be acted on. Obviously, this didn't happen before Pearl Harbor, or 9/11. But can this type of intelligence gathering be done in the real world- can we collect dispersed information, bring that information together, and do in hours, rather than days? The answer is "yes", and to see why, just look at the DARPA balloon challenge.

I really didn't get what DARPA's red balloons were all about until I read this article. It seemed sort of abstract, something about social networks. I suspect that this question (how do we collect and assemble those needles of intelligence from a vast haystack of noise?) is the question that DARPA is trying to answer with those balloons. In the case of Pearl Harbor, or 9/11, or the Fort Hood shootings, there was actionable intelligence. The problem was that there wasn't a mechanism to collect that intelligence; the people who knew the facts, and the people who needed the facts, didn't know each other. What DARPA asked was: how can we collect intelligence when the intelligence is held by different groups of people (think different government agencies, like CIA, NSA, FBI, Customs and Immigration, different governments, or just people in the streets) and those people don't know the people who need the information (higher-ups in Homeland Security or the White House)? We know what failure looks like (Pearl Harbor, 9/11) but what does success look like? How and why do certain intelligence-gathering systems actually work, when they do work?

Their unconventional approach here was to set up an intelligence problem (balloons dispersed all over the country, need to collect info within 24 hours) and then let other people figure out how to solve it. Obviously terrorists will not be painted bright red, clearly marked, and stationary, but the principles of effective network intelligence can be applied to more difficult problems. I suspect that DARPA is going to spend a lot of time studying the data about how the intel came in for these various efforts.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (2, Interesting)

Maximum Prophet (716608) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366566)

Which is why human intelligence is much more useful than signal intelligence

People lie.

The US government is especially good at sending bogus signals. There's no reason to believe other governments aren't as good.

All intelligence has it's problems. The trick is to put together enough different sources to weed out the bogus, and home in on the truth, all while keeping everything secret. Basically, it's an impossible task, but sometimes it's good enough, and sometimes you go to war looking for WMD that aren't there.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

mpe (36238) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367670)

The US government is especially good at sending bogus signals. There's no reason to believe other governments aren't as good.

Not just governments. The same can apply to organised crime, corporations, etc, etc.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (3, Informative)

megamerican (1073936) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367048)

Human SIGINT is flawed because they can easily be manipulated, compartmentalized and shut down when neccessary. You can also be relying on people who are flawed morally, intellectually, etc...

An Example [wanttoknow.info]

15 of the 19 hijackers fail to fill in visa documents properly in Saudi Arabia. Only six are interviewed. All 15 should have been denied entry to the US. [Washington Post, 10/22/02, [wanttoknow.info] ABC, 10/23/02 [go.com] ] Two top Republican senators say if State Department personnel had merely followed the law, 9/11 would not have happened.[ [wanttoknow.info] AP, 12/18/02More [wanttoknow.info] ]

At least 13 of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers were never interviewed by U.S. consular officials before being granted visas to enter the United States, according to a congressional report issued yesterday. The finding contradicts previous assurances from the State Department that most of them had been thoroughly screened.

The General Accounting Office also found that, for 15 hijackers whose applications could be found, none had filled in the documents properly.

...

The GAO report found that all 15 of the hijackers from Saudi Arabia applied for visas in Jeddah or Riyadh; two others applied in their native United Arab Emirates. The remaining two, including ringleader Mohamed Atta, an Egyptian citizen, applied as "third-country" applicants in Berlin.

None of 18 separate visa applications by 15 of the hijackers was completed properly, the report said. Thirteen of the 15, who were from Saudi Arabia or UAE, were never interviewed before being approved for a visa, the report found. Investigators were unable to review the applications for four other hijackers, including Atta, because they were destroyed.

If you want to see the actual Visas of some 9/11 hijackers you can go here. [911review.org]

If you want to know why people with such obviously fraudulent Visa applications can get in to the country consider the testimony of J. Michael Springmann. [google.com] He worked at the Jeddah consulate approving Visas and says he was occasionally overruled by the CIA. Remember that when Springmann was working there they weren't known as terrorists, they were still called freedom fighters.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30369360)

Human SIGINT is flawed because, by definition, there's no such thing.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

ls671 (1122017) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367284)

The way it is (should be?) done is as follows:

Data mine to generate reports to human beings.

Conventional strictly human intelligence is still done and needed. The pitfall is that an organization could try to cut costs too much by relying too much on computer generated reports. Aside from that pitfall, data mining is efficient to find instances where traditional human methods would have failed as long as you tune the system not to have a ridiculous amount of false positives.

For the time being, human review is still needed ;-)

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

Sockatume (732728) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367306)

Nobody's actually proposing replacing one with the other, though.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

kevinNCSU (1531307) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368230)

A lovely concept but what human operator generally has a full view of all the actors, events, relationships and their importance? No one operator is going to have all the pieces of the puzzle in their head which is why they have to write up Intelligence Information Reports to share information with other operators and analysts that try to put all the pieces together. Now you have a mountain of IIR's to either sift through by hand or you're right back to the data mining problem.

Key take away: Data Mining Issues and HUMINT aren't mutually exclusive

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368916)

Common perception in the 1980's was that the Japanese would own the US. The 1990's market crash took care of that. China?
What about WWII Wind Talkers. Language has its uses regardless of the style, formal or informal. How well would a formal English Rap video sell? Law is based on the premise of making language use understood. But, enigma is enigma. A smarter intelligence maybe required. Now Showing: Rap talkers in Kabul starring Samuel L. Jackson.

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368522)

They should post it all on Slashdot and let us decide!

Re:HUMINT SIGINT (1)

LuckySweetheart (1515653) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368852)

SIGINT isn't just data mining. Wiki article [wikipedia.org] .

James Bamford's "Body of Secrets" [amazon.com] mentions SIGINT was used on naval vessels to determine what kinds of submarines, etc. they were up against, merely by the radio frequencies and signals received. It's really cool stuff.

Robert Baer's "See No Evil" [amazon.com] is the perfect explanation of why our intel community, especially on the HUMINT side, is so fucked right now.

Feed it Monty Python (5, Funny)

Quiet_Desperation (858215) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366372)

Squadron Leader: "Top hole. Bally Jerry pranged his kite right in the how's your father. Hairy blighter dicky-birded, feathered back on his Sammy, took a waspy, flipped over on his Betty Harper's and caught his can in the Bertie."

Computer: WTF?

Pilot: "Bunch of monkeys on your ceiling, sir! Grab your egg and fours and let's get the bacon delivered."

Computer: (explodes)

Re:Feed it Monty Python (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367014)

Wasn't that Blackadder?

Re:Feed it Monty Python (2, Informative)

Quiet_Desperation (858215) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367072)

No.

Re:Feed it Monty Python (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368472)

Soap and MacTavish, is that you guys?

Obviously... (3, Funny)

fuzzyfuzzyfungus (1223518) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366384)

This is why we need to legally mandate that all human communication occur in newspeak. Ambiguity is the enemy of security.

Re:Obviously... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30366440)

minilove says it's double plus good.

Re:Obviously... (1)

abbynormal brain (1637419) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366478)

Ambiguity IS security

Re:Obviously... (4, Funny)

SEWilco (27983) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366990)

Ambiguity IS security

That depends upon what the meaning of "is" is.

Re:Obviously... (1)

gijoel (628142) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369558)

Fucking philosophy majors.

Re:Obviously... (1)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369504)

Ambiguity has always been security.

Re:Obviously... (1)

Thiez (1281866) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367128)

Citizens rejoice! Lojban has been adapted as the New Official Language!

This stuff is hard. I do it every day... (4, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30366474)

We use an expert system to try and figure out what air traffic controllers are doing in a simulation. It is a big system and making it fast means trading alot of memory for speed. Identifying rules to categorize what a subject is doing is hard, especially because you see things that arent' expected when you think about what rules the system can use to identify a category of interaction. Looking at a stream of recording of system events is similar to looking at a stream of intelligence hits like 'subject crossed border x', 'subject a called subject b', 'subject purchased x, y, and z with credit card #k at mid #l with location coordinants (m,n)' The hardest part is that the system wants context but computers don't do context very well. To do it fast, you have to come up with vectors representing context state and rules and accept a certain amount of errors. Data can easily run into the hundreds of gigabytes for only 1 hour of monitoring a self contained experiment. It is fun though...

Whether predicati used to be slower then real time (1)

agge (1244568) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369892)

The first whether analyse formulas tock over a week to calculate the next days whether. But bay using em you cold see if the predication what right and make them faster the next time.

Computer Analysis Feedback Loop (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30366508)

"A system that takes a week to discover a bombing will occur in a day isn't very useful.'"

I would argue that it can be. If your system takes a week to discover a bomb plot that occurred last week, refinements can be made to the system to improve its detection abilities.

Re:Computer Analysis Feedback Loop (1)

bmearns (1691628) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366740)

But you can apply that logic to deem anything a success: "Well, the reactor melted down and killed millions of people. But overall it was a success, we just have to refine the system."

Re:Computer Analysis Feedback Loop (1)

Lumpy (12016) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367448)

The thing is, they will never achieve their goal. It is very easy to fool a set of rules.

communicate in pig latin and replace key words with a word from a list.

Bomb = tree, fat cat, snotty bunny, or Taco.
Meet at = Go to lunch, fly a kite near, I eat hamburgers across from, etc....

And those rules are very easy to get to your operatives and can be parsed quickly. If you release new phrasebooks you can confuse the hell out of the detection systems well past the time you need to. Remember, if they detect your communication a day late, then you were 100% successful.

That is the benefit of being a human, you can easily parse silly shit into real data even when it's from a pool of silly words.

and that's just for in the clear comms. It's brain dead easy to send an encrypted message they will either miss or cant decode until it's too pate.

Any statistician could have told them that (2, Interesting)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366520)

There's one thing that's worse than too little data: Too much data that may or may not be relevant to your task.

It's bad to have no data. But that can be remedied. Having more data than you can process, worse, data where you cannot discriminate between wheat and chaff is pretty much useless. And that's basically what we have now. They were busy collecting data left and right, not asking whether that data could be relevant. Now they're stuck with a buttload of data that may or may not be relevant.

The best solution? Toss it and start over. And this time, collect only what's relevant.

Re:Any statistician could have told them that (3, Insightful)

SpeedyDX (1014595) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366768)

Isn't that kind of begging the question? The problem here is, as you said, not being able to discriminate between useful and useless data. So how do we know what's relevant (a.k.a. useful)? Do we only collect data by using humans interpret the data? If so, then the role of the computer is much diminished. Do we automate the process by having computers discriminate between useful and useless data? Well, that's exactly the problem - we can't figure out how to do that yet. Even if we only have relevant data, how do we assign semantic value to the data in order for the computer to properly parse the data and give us semantically useful results?

It's not as simple as just collecting relevant data. Even if it were, that in and of itself is a major hurdle.

Re:Any statistician could have told them that (1)

Bakkster (1529253) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367124)

It's not as simple as just collecting relevant data. Even if it were, that in and of itself is a major hurdle.

Agreed. Even at a worst case scenario a human can identify information that is more likely to be important, but only if you have it. As you said, sometimes we don't know data is relevent until after we have collected it, especially in the case of corroborating evidence.

GP's suggestion to delete the data ignores the ability to search for useful signals (even if it is time consuming or a crap-shoot) and assumes that we will not obtain an automated system by the time this data is useless.

Re:Any statistician could have told them that (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367424)

If it is impossible to discriminate between useful and useless data in a timely manner then it's pointless busywork to collect it altogether.

Hate to Godwin here, but this is old problem (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367258)

Indeed. In addition, this is not a new problem.

If you visit STASI museum* in Berlin, one thing you'll no doubt learn is this: STASI was a lot more inefficient than they could have been because they had much more data than they could process. They didn't have problem with gathering information but with acting based on it. They received so many reports and pieces of information that there was no chance for them to tie them all together and analyze them all.

That's why I don't think that the biggest risks we face are increase in amount of CCTV cams and whatnot. They can't effectively be used to trace us because nobody can analyze all that data. Solving crimes (as inefficient as they are in that) is pretty much the only thing they can be used for. However, when I hear about new advances in areas of face recognization and stuff like that I always begin wonder what kind of central intelligence agency will the next dictatorship have access to.

*Yes, I know the difference between Gestapo and STASI but if you interpret godwin's law that literally, you are missing the point. In addition, I would be surprised if Gestapo didn't have a similar problem.

Re:Hate to Godwin here, but this is old problem (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367476)

Also don't forget that both, Stasi and Gestapo, were not rarely used to get rid of "unwanted" neighbors. Nothing's easier in a totalitarian system than to accuse someone you don't like of being an enemy of the state and let the state get rid of him for you. After all, the state assumes anyway that all its subjects are its enemies.

We're not far from that either now, btw.

Yes. Also (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367504)

the article talks about "information" but forgets that "data" is not quite the same thing. "information" is what results once the processed data is given context, analysed, and understood. Data without that remains data, and essentially useless.

Both these make gigantic databases full of potentially privacy-damaging data worse than useless. You can't do much good with them, but you can't be sure they won't be misused. Still, various bigwigs whose job it is to understand this insist that oversized databases are a "must capability to have". There's your tax money at work.

And that doesn't even begin to touch on things like the yurp "data sharing" agreements, the TSA flight data hoovering, various biometric databases, telecoms databases in yurp and NSA hoovering in yoosah, and so on and so forth. It's all the same bad thing.

Re:Any statistician could have told them that (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368402)

great idea. how?

The Real Issue (2, Insightful)

carp3_noct3m (1185697) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366522)

Is not that technology can't sift through some language as easy as it wants to. The problem is that (I am speaking for US and some allies) we have moved away from HUMAN intel. All the technology in the world can be rendered useless when for example, terrorists cells start to use face to face only communication in a tree like scheme. Only a few people ever talk to the people that pull the strings, and they talk to only a few people, only by passing letters or by talking face to face. I took a counter-surveillance course where I was amazed at the relative ease it took to shake even trained professionals. (It was also very fun to learn how to make drops and such) The point being that if someone really doesn't want to get caught, especially in a foreign country, its not too difficult. Humans are vulnerable, weak, and irrational beings capable of cognitive dissonance at every corner. If you want real intel, start focusing on HUMINT again. I read a very good book written by the guy whom the movie "Syriana" was based. Basically it boiled down to the CIA moving away from tried and true practices of gathering intel through human means, and becoming heavily reliant on both technology and politics to get stuff done, a major factor why he retired. Anyway, just my two cents.

Re:The Real Issue (4, Interesting)

darkmeridian (119044) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367232)

Intelligence is worthless without an intelligent decision-making process. During the run-up to the second Iraq War, the CIA sent Iraqi-Americans related to Iraqi nuclear scientists to inquire about the status of that country's nuclear program. Thirty Iraqi-Americans were debriefed by the CIA and sent independently of each other. All thirty returned with news that the Iraqi nuclear program had been run into the ground by a relative of Saddam, that the scientists lied about their progress to Saddam to stay in his good graces, and that Saddam was bluffing by denying UN inspectors.

In fact, a few scientists reported that Iraq had no real capability to make nuclear bombs since the early nineties. A crucial centrifuge facility had been destroyed in the first Gulf War. The facility had been unknown to Western intelligence until Saddam's hand-picked boss ordered it to be moved to a safer location. American intelligence detected the activity. They didn't realize that was a nuclear processing facility but knew it was a military target. Thus, the facility was put as a secondary target on the Air Tasking Order designating targets for air bombardment.

One day, a fighter-bomber returning to its carrier had unexpended laser-guided munitions because its primary target had been masked by weather. Back then, American planes could not land with unexpended munitions because the explosives were not inert and posed a risk of fire or explosion. The air traffic controller directed him to the nuclear facility. The bombs hit their target and that was the end of the Iraqi nuclear program.

Re:The Real Issue (2, Insightful)

timeOday (582209) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369362)

OK, let's look at the recent case of Nidal Hasan [msn.com] : sigint detects his communications with somebody considered an extremist, law enforcement detects some troubling internet postings maybe attributable to him, other officers report him having potential problems, his case is looked into very carefully by the right people, but they decide not to act and disaster ensues. What went wrong here?

I would argue, probably nothing. In hindsight, it is always easy to second-guess why the system "didn't work," but in fact, all these same clues occur in thousands of other cases where nothing ever comes of it. So, much of this disappointment comes from people unconsciously (and always in retrospect) hold systems up to an impossible standard - not only where an infinite number of KGB agents have an infinite amount of time to track everybody, not only where a super-intelligent AI acts in the most rational possible manner, but beyond that, demanding prediction of the future given some information which is relevant, but nevertheless insufficient.

Book (1)

LuckySweetheart (1515653) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369076)

The book was by Robert Baer, and is called "See No Evil" [barnesandnoble.com] . I agree that it was very good.

Re:The Real Issue (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30370130)

Wow, how much did you pay for that? If you wan't I can give you an online course in Hostage Negotiation, you'll master terms such as: 'stall', 'goner', 'take-m-out' and more. Learning might very well prove vital for your survival one day. This offer includes a certified diploma. I'll gladly take your two cents as an advance.

America forced Japan's hand (2, Informative)

BadAnalogyGuy (945258) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366556)

Japan had only one real front in the lead up to Pearl Harbor. For all intents and purposes Japan was only focused on expanding westward into Asia. They envisioned "breathing space" like Germany did and meant to build an "Eastern co-prosperity sphere" led by an enlightened Japanese government. Naturally there was some resistance from the neighboring countries, but America and Japan didn't really have any reason to fight except that Japan was allied with Germany and there was a greater anti-imperialist zeitgeist among the Allies.

So when America decided to blockade South Asian shipping routes to effectively starve Japan of steel and other necessary resources, the Japanese had only one recourse. They bombed Pearl Harbor in an attempt to destroy as much of the American fleet as possible in the shortest amount of time. It was strategically the right move.

Now, if you want to say that the American military had its head up its ass that fateful morning, you'll find support from most historians. But to make the claim that no one expected an attack is simply absurd.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

jimbobborg (128330) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366822)

Now, if you want to say that the American military had its head up its ass that fateful morning, you'll find support from most historians. But to make the claim that no one expected an attack is simply absurd.

No one was expecting an attack that day. But they were supposed to be on alert. Granted, this was from the movie, but leaving planes out on the airfield and lots of shore leave for the sailors on the ships docked at Pearl Harbor is not what I'd call being on alert. Fortunately for the U.S., only the battleships were in port. I don't think that the U.S. could have been as successful in the Pacific if it had lost carriers during this attack.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

Lumpy (12016) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367488)

Carriers are 100X easier to build than battleships. If we had our full compliment of battleships we would have ended the pacific theater war far earlier.

Carriers back then were simple as hell to build compared to the 18" thick hulls of the Big Iowa class battleships.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

CrimsonAvenger (580665) | more than 4 years ago | (#30370308)

Carriers are 100X easier to build than battleships. If we had our full compliment of battleships we would have ended the pacific theater war far earlier.

Carriers back then were simple as hell to build compared to the 18" thick hulls of the Big Iowa class battleships.

You are aware that we lost only two battleships permanently as a result of Pearl Harbor?

And that none of the Iowa class ships (4), or South Dakota class ships (4) had even been completed when Pearl Harbor happened?

It's silly to think that we could have finished the war far sooner if only we'd had those two 25 year old battleships that we lost at Pearl, in addition to the eight brand new battleships already in the ways.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (2, Funny)

hardburn (141468) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367876)

Granted, this was from the movie, but leaving planes out on the airfield and lots of shore leave for the sailors on the ships docked at Pearl Harbor is not what I'd call being on alert.

Planes were out on the field because they thought the biggest threat was from Japanese spys laying bombs in the hangers. They put them all together so they'd be easier to guard. To their credit, not one plane was lost due to a Japanese spy.

It's an interesting case of a defense against one form of attack making you more vulnerable against another.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (3, Interesting)

gyrogeerloose (849181) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367104)

It was strategically the right move.

I think the outcome of World War II demonstrates that it was not the right move strategically. Tactically, perhaps, if the Japanese military planners were expecting the U.S. to enter into war, but it was a strategic disaster for them over the long run.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

BadAnalogyGuy (945258) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367290)

First, by setting up the blockade, America had already committed itself to a war in Asia.

Second, it's quite plausible that even the best of strategies is bound to fail. In fact, it is almost guaranteed that one side's strategy will fail to bring it victory in any competition. This doesn't mean that the strategy was bad or not the best available, just that it was unable to overcome the opponent.

If the Japanese had succeeded in wiping out the Pacific fleet in one fell swoop, it would have unlocked the entire Asian continent for them. American was already fighting a war on the European front. A crippled Pacific fleet would have made it impossible to keep up a second front.

If you look at the progression of the Pacific front, you'll find that Japan actually made significant headway in fighting the Americans. However, once the American war machine got its production centers working, the fight was just too much for the under-resourced Japanese.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (2, Interesting)

gyrogeerloose (849181) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367992)

I've got to disagree with you almost completely on this one. Japan made a slick tactical maneuver with their attack on Pearl Harbor but a huge strategical blunder. If Japanese war planners had paid any attention to their own intelligence, they would have realized that even if they had succeeded in knocking out the American Pacific fleet, all that would have accomplished was delaying the inevitable.

As it was, all the Pearl Harbor attack accomplished was to give the Imperial Japanese Navy six months of free reign in the western Pacific. It wasn't enough. The industrial capacity of the U.S. dwarfed that of Japan, which the Japanese military had known but chosen to ignore. The reasons given for that vary--perhaps arrogance, possibly belief in a divine destiny but no matter how you spin it, it was a strategic mistake.

And, by the way, the U.S. was not actively involved in the war in Europe at the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, although it was supplying weapons and materials to Great Britain to help them in their fight against Germany.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

timeOday (582209) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369664)

And, by the way, the U.S. was not actively involved in the war in Europe at the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, although it was supplying weapons and materials to Great Britain to help them in their fight against Germany.

Well, that's mostly [ww2pacific.com] true [taphilo.com] .

As for your assessment of Japan's "strategic blunder," I am not so sure, simply because I think the US would have entered the war anyways. It would have been more sporting to at least declare war on us first, although the US doesn't do that anymore either.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

hardburn (141468) | more than 4 years ago | (#30370134)

Strictly speaking, they intended to declare war first. Things just got held up in the bureaucracy around the embassy.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (2, Interesting)

downhole (831621) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368994)

If the Japanese had succeeded in wiping out the Pacific fleet in one fell swoop, it would have unlocked the entire Asian continent for them. American was already fighting a war on the European front. A crippled Pacific fleet would have made it impossible to keep up a second front.

No, it wouldn't. The bottom line is that our industrial capacity was just too much for them. It wouldn't matter what they did in the opening stages; we would have out-produced them and defeated them eventually no matter what. And there were more than enough production resources to smother both the Germans and the Japanese. (I know, technically the Soviets did most of the smothering of the Germans, but that's beside the point here).

The fundamental problem with the Axis powers is that they just weren't big enough to take on the whole rest of the world, and that their nationalistic/racist ideologies made it impossible to build true alliances. The only thing that might have actually worked for both Germany and Japan would have been to conquer just enough territory that nobody would complain too much, then consolidate and industrialize that territory, and repeat until they have a bigger war machine than their rivals. But that probably isn't possible if you believe that the citizens in all of the neighboring countries are all sub-human.

Re:America forced Japan's hand (3, Insightful)

MozeeToby (1163751) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367894)

You're missing the point, denying the Japanese access to steal and other resources during wartime was, for all intents and purposes, and act of war. Without those resources, Japan wouldn't have been able to hold the ground they had already taken, let alone continue advancing. When the US cut off access to critical war resources, Japan had only two choices: End the war almost immediately and retreat back to Japan proper, or take control of the resources by force. For political and ideological reason, the former option wasn't much of an option at all.

Imagine if the US were fighting a major war (against a powerful, conventional enemy) and OPEC said "No more oil exports for a while". You don't think the US govt would see that as an act of war?

Re:America forced Japan's hand (1)

gyrogeerloose (849181) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368462)

There was nothing in my original comment that says anything except that the attack on Perl Harbor was a long-term strategic blunder. Did the U.S. commit acts of war against Japan? Probably, depending on how want to define it.

Perhaps I should have expanded my comment a bit and stated "it was a strategic disaster for Japan and it's people over the long run."

Re:America forced Japan's hand (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368746)

When the US cut off access to critical war resources, Japan had only two choices: End the war almost immediately and retreat back to Japan proper, or take control of the resources by force. For political and ideological reason, the former option wasn't much of an option at all.

Even if this is true, the fact remains that the best long-term strategy would certainly have been to end the war immediately. They ended up retreating to Japan anyway, only with horrific losses. I'm not saying they were stupid at the time, but given that we have the benefit of hindsight it is curious that anyone would defend the strategy as sound; clearly it was not, and since you even claim that they were forced into accepting it through political pressure, perhaps they did not themselves believe it was the optimal strategy. It's not like this realization would have necessarily stopped them; the Imperial Japanese forces didn't have much of a reputation for knowing when to quit.

Crowd source it. (1)

ground.zero.612 (1563557) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366570)

There is a lot of work being done to integrate search algorithms into simple gameplay. It seems to me the best way would be to have a back-end algorithm that breaks up the work into "game-able" chunks, and another that queues up the chunks into the front-end game engine.

At least, it seems to me that if we know that binary computing sucks at solving the problem, and we know that human computing is great, that it's fundamentally wrong to be using binary computers to do the work.

Big Brother is watching you (3, Interesting)

br00tus (528477) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366732)

In the mid 1990s I watched a video tape of "The Falcon and the Snowman". It is based on a real story of a young man who worked at a sensitive location at TRW (his father was in the FBI and got him the job through the old boy network) which was responsible for sending and receiving CIA cables from overseas. Sometimes, they mixed up the TWXs and they saw cables they weren't supposed to. It was by this that he learned of how the CIA helped in the overthrow the government of Australia in the 1970s, the famous Whitlam constitutional crisis. You can read about it on Wikipedia. It can be debated how effective or ineffective the CIA's efforts were, but they've never denied their involvement, and in fact it was alleged that John Kerr was a CIA asset. Anyhow, so one day in 1997 or 1998 I was sitting at my SunOS x86 workstation at work, back before NAT had become popular, and I decided to surf the web and visit some lefty Australian web sites that discussed the extent of CIA involvement in overthrowing Australia's government in the 1970s. Several days later, I noticed SNMP requests coming into my workstation, scanning for any information about it. If I hadn't set my workstation to log absolutely everything, if it wasn't a UNIX workstation, if I didn't control the Cisco router and access list and so on and so forth I never would have seen it, it would have been a standard SNMP request. In fact, I didn't log for everything and who knows what other queries came to the machine. I saved the request for years but then lost it in a hard drive crash. It came out of a US army intelligence division (.MIL) that was based in Quantico, Virginia and which had some long acronym which I now forget. I thought the military wasn't supposed to monitor the communications of US citizens, but apparently not in this case. Also, as soon as I saw this, I thought of how I had read about Whitlam and the CIA on the Australian web site days before, and that was the only thing I had done on the machine that they might have been interested in. With the Patriot Act etc. who knows what will be happening.

Re:Big Brother is watching you (1)

Vahokif (1292866) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367338)

You seriously believe that Big Brother watches you from a .mil hostname?

Re:Big Brother is watching you (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367344)

Cool story bro

Re:Big Brother is watching you (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368652)

Do you use your real name when you do a crime? Maybe it's lefty watching, not righty??? Terror lurks!

Re:Big Brother is watching you (1)

Tablizer (95088) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369242)

I noticed SNMP requests coming into my workstation, scanning for any information about it.

And you didn't mirror a goatse gallery for them? Shame on you for a missed opportunity.
     

No More Data Needed (2, Insightful)

hardburn (141468) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366758)

Today's intelligence agencies have another problem altogether — more information than they can deal with . . .

This is the ultimate argument against those defending increased surveillance activities to fight terrorism (or any other crime). Intelligence agencies already have way more information than they can deal with just from public sources. 99.999% of it is the noise of people going about their normal lives. Getting out the interesting bits is a hard problem, and adding more is only going to slow you down. It can help if you've already nailed down a good list of suspects and therefore have a small, targeted list of people to watch. But if that's the case, what's the big deal about getting a warrant?

A system that takes a week to discover (1)

bugs2squash (1132591) | more than 4 years ago | (#30366760)

a bombing will occur in a day using exclusively prior knowledge is tremendously useful. For a start it proves that the algorithm works and might be sped up either by optimization or throwing better hardware at it

If someone had a process by which the attack of 9/11 could have been forecast using only information being processed on 9/10 and it produced a report highlighting the attack would happen by 9/18 I think the CIA would be beating a path to their door.

The problem is misunderstoood... (2, Insightful)

petaflop (682818) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367022)

...at least as presented in the article, which frequently assumes that the text of a communication carries its meaning. The article keeps hinting at the problems, but comes back to the position that you just to make more links with more text. That's simply not true, and shows a rather understanding of the nature of language.

The meaning of a piece if a communication involves not just the text, but the specific context (who is the source, who is the recipient), the social context, and the cultural context.

For an example of the first - a 8 year old who says "I'm going to shoot her" (especially if the context is a game of cops and robbers) should be understood differently to an adult to says the same thing. And the meaning also varies depending on whether the adult is a photographer or not, and whether 'her' refers to a model or an ex-wife. None of these things may be made explicit anywhere in a any intercepted communication.

As another example, a description of a gory murder by a wild animal carries a very different meaning if the text starts with the words "Once upon a time".

You can't separate text, meaning and culture and consciousness. Which is why the problem of interpreting natural language is so hard; harder than even the article author seems to acknowledge.

Re:The problem is misunderstoood... (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367378)

Did'ya talk to our friend? The one downtown, who was involved in that thing last week. You know who I mean?

Re:The problem is misunderstoood... (1)

LanMan04 (790429) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368574)

There is an entire field devoted to such a concept: Semantics. FYI.

Unless... (1)

davidwr (791652) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367042)

'A system that takes a week to discover a bombing will occur in a day isn't very useful.'

Hmm, this could be a problem, unless.... *thinking pose*

I know! Time travel!

Perhaps ... (1)

PPH (736903) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367108)

... if Bush would not have gone looking for porn, or Obama for offshore bank accounts, the remaining data could be analyzed in a timely manner for those bombs they all claim to be interested in.

'A system that takes a week'... (1)

drainbramage (588291) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367192)

Sure it's late, but you really know you got the right answer.
So, not all bad, and it will be easy to check your work.

Re:'A system that takes a week'... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367314)

42!

Not Able Danger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367278)

This article is more about technical difficulties in raw data interpretation, not the apparent mining of financial and intelligence records which was part of "Able Danger".

This is why... (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30367312)

... I've been answering the phone with "Assassinate the vice-president" the last five years. I figure when I finally do commit some hideous act of terror upon the American people, they'll have been ignoring me as a potential threat because of obfuscation.

Terror e-mails the NSA missed (1)

Ambitwistor (1041236) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367340)

All your base are belong to us. You have no chance to survive make your time.

No surprise (1)

u8i9o0 (1057154) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367368)

1. Having information expire before it is discovered follows practical usage of encryption.

2. Basically, an extra layer is being applied at the content level: slang and the like are just word substitution.

3. Too much information probably indicates that attention is being diverted to cover unnecessary discussions. Think of it this way: you're looking for someone in a city. You could wiretap a few people close to that person and hope you catch some bit of conversation OR you wiretap the whole city guaranteeing you have every bit of conversation. The first approach will offer information in real time while the second approach will take years to discover relevant information. The first approach is adopted for speed, while the only reason to adopt the second is for archiving.

Time for a Reminder ... (2, Informative)

foobsr (693224) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367506)

Computers and Common Sense, the Myth of Thinking Machines. 1961 by Mortimer Taube.

Still valid, but mostly unheard of.

Interesting that in the English Wikipedia there is even no article on him.

CC.

Too much data? (1)

evil_aar0n (1001515) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367768)

How many times to serious potential terrorists use channels that could be monitored by the governments? I'd figure - except for the low-hanging fruit that would probably expire themselves whilst hooking up their explosives, doing us all a favor in the process - that the _real_ bad guys would be almost out of reach as far as surveillance goes. I mean, don't they all have encrypted private networks, if not at least encrypted phones, and other methods of communication?

So, of this volume of data, how much of it really pertains to serious, credible threats? Of course, that's the answer the gov wants, but, seriously, are the most dangerous bad guys really that stupid to communicate their plans almost in the clear?

Re:Too much data? (1)

CorporateSuit (1319461) | more than 4 years ago | (#30367952)

seriously, are the most dangerous bad guys really that stupid to communicate their plans almost in the clear?

Of course, then they leave to the command room to bring their plan of devastation to fruition -- assuming the hero will quietly meet his fate, encased in the trap the bad guy had so deviously invented, surrounded by the most expendable subordinates available, next door to the central power chamber and flashlight supply, which typically has a ventilation system, large, empty, and cool enough for a grown man to shimmy comfortably through, leading to the command room.

Roosevelt let it happen (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30368030)

Pearl Harbor...

Easy Fix (2, Insightful)

AK Marc (707885) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368304)

The problem is both hard and simple at the same time: Hire Google-like problem solvers. There are a lot of people really good at logic problems. However, companies (including the government) don't hire smart people because they are smart. They hire skillsets and such (when a smart person could be taught the skill set and get more done in 6 months than hiring a mediocre person that already has the skillset for the position). Don't look for programmers. Don't look for linguists. Find people that can solve complex problems. Motivate them. Give them resources like programmers and linguists, and the ability to study those subjects directly as well. And then the problem will be worked on. But having bureaucrats trying to fix the problem will have them not even consider the route that will get them the solution fastest.

It's a cryptography problem. There's information stored in codes. Sometimes the code is regular language, sometimes slang, sometimes coded language, but it's all decoding meaning from words. Problem solvers are better at solving the problem than having someone program a solution when no one actually figured out the solution, or having some linguists come up with direct matches that miss a large portion of what they want and get huge numbers of false positives.

But hiring someone that doesn't know what they are doing and training them is anti-American. We'll import our labor at a higher cost than actually train someone for the position. So I don't think anyone will ever do it. Google proved me wrong, but it doesn't seem anyone else is following their lead.

Re:Easy Fix (1)

hcdejong (561314) | more than 4 years ago | (#30370658)

The problem is both hard and simple at the same time: Hire Google-like problem solvers.

If you think the NSA hasn't come up with that idea, I'm afraid you sorely underestimate them.

A week? A day? Whatever. (2, Insightful)

ljwest (743563) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368452)

A system taking a week to discover a bombing that will occur in a day's time will (by Moore's law) break even in 33.9 month's time. I.e., in 33.9 month's time, it won't take week - it'll take a day. So keep developing - it'll be viable in three years.

Are "Psi" Powers the Solution? (0, Offtopic)

strangelovian (1559111) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368566)

The data overload problem will only get worse in the future, which is why the next frontier in national security (and many other fields) may not be faster, smarter computers, but tapping into powers of the human mind that most modern people don’t even know exist (and deny dogmatically). I’m speaking of “psi” powers, which the CIA and other intelligence agencies have used extensively with some pretty amazing results. Read “Outside the Gates of Science: Why It's Time for the Paranormal to Come in from the Cold” by Damien Broderick for a fascinating account of this research. Remote viewers, for example, have been able to draw detailed pictures of secret bases, Saddam Hussein’s hideout, etc., but the techniques are erratic and don’t seem very amenable to scientific analysis. In general I wonder if the “Butlerian Jihad” of the Dune novels isn’t so far-fetched, and mental training schools like the Mentat and the Benne-Gesserit are the way forward for a civilization drowning in its own data.

Re:Are "Psi" Powers the Solution? (1)

pwfffff (1517213) | more than 4 years ago | (#30369304)

Why don't you just 'remote-view' the future and tell us?

On the bright side (1)

Ukab the Great (87152) | more than 4 years ago | (#30368594)

Everyone who uses the expression "is da' bomb" will be arrested and taken off the street.

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