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Forrester Says Tech Downturn Is "Unofficially Over"

kdawson posted more than 4 years ago | from the unofficial-whoopee dept.

The Almighty Buck 130

alphadogg writes "The US IT market will grow by 6.6% as high-tech spending rebounds in 2010, according to Forrester Research's latest estimates. The research firm based its projections on data reported for 2009, though its fourth quarter numbers are incomplete. Forrester says hints of a recovery surfaced in the third quarter, and now the company expects the global IT market to grow by 8.1% in 2010. Forrester's US and Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009 reads: 'The tech downturn of 2008 and 2009 is unofficially over, while the Q3 2009 data for the US and the global market showed continued declines in tech purchases (as we expected). We predict that the Q4 2009 data will show a small increase in buying activity, or at worst, just a small decline.'"

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Anectodal info (0)

NotQuiteReal (608241) | more than 4 years ago | (#30746816)

I was never unemployed during this current downturn, and I am in tech.

Probably the same for most... I'm just sayin...

Re:Anectodal info (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30746946)

Exactly. But you're probably not in America, or you're a cheap-ass immigrant working 120 hours a week for peanuts and no health or dental insurance. Got news for ya...after you've lived here for a few years, you start taking functional sewer systems for granted.

Re:Anectodal info (3, Informative)

travisb828 (1002754) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747042)

We had a 2% cut in staff at the end of 2008. The 2% came from early retirement and not replacing people. There were a few small departments that were eliminated. Some of the people were absorbed into other departments, but not all. We haven't really added any FTE to our head count, but we have gone through a few contractors.

There were some other cuts. No company picnic at 6 flags in 2009. The holiday dinner at a nice steak house was moved to a less pricey Italian restaurant. Our company is spread out and travel was drastically cut. When we did travel the trips were very short.

I didn't loose my job, and I bought a new car in 2009. However, I know a few of those contractors would have like to stayed around longer after their contracts expired. Instead of hiring 10 people at the start of 2010, my boss is being told that she has to wait until Q3.

Re:Anectodal info (2, Funny)

nlindstrom (244357) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747782)

I'm glad to hear you didn't loose your job. A job should always be kept on its leash, and don't forget to pick up after it in the park.

Way To Make Yourself Look Like An Idiot (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747100)

"I'm just sayin..."

Do you have a fucking clue how much of a goddamn retard using that idiotic phrase makes you look like?

Re:Way To Make Yourself Look Like An Idiot (0, Offtopic)

NotQuiteReal (608241) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747226)

Whatever. If you are annoyed by that phrase, it sounds like a personal problem to me. Anyway, at the end of the day, I still have my job.

Chill out, it's all good. I'm not gonna lie, but, um, can we talk? Dude! I am just doing my due diligence, in trying to help me to help you to be honest about things.

Sheesh. And I thought AC for for warm climates only!

Re:Way To Make Yourself Look Like An Idiot (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747486)

You probably a Hindu on a H1B visa. So if you are some Abu working for lunch money you will always be employed, no matter which kind of depression we get into.

Re:Way To Make Yourself Look Like An Idiot (0, Offtopic)

jaroslaw.fedewicz (1539623) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748818)

You probably a Hindu on a H1B visa. So if you are some Abu working for lunch money you will always be employed, no matter which kind of depression we get into.

That's why people like us have advantage over you. We can see the wonders of the Universe and have fun for less than 30 altarian dollars a day, and be quite happy with our lives, no matter which kind of depression you get into.

Re:Anectodal info (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Cowar (1608865) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747122)

An economic downturn only affects those who get laid off...

Or don't get bonuses, or don't get the resources/personnel/equipment they need, or entrepreneurs...

I wasn't affected by the recession until I was laid off, awesome how that works, eh? It's a boolean state, either you're employed and not feeling the effects, or you're not employed and can't get a new job at the same level as before, or do get one, but get picked out of far more applicants than before. At which point, your boolean downturn.effect() is reset to zero.

economic downturns don't affect leaches (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747252)

Beggars, those on the public dole, and government workers are also not affected.

Well, maybe beggars are getting a smaller take, since there are fewer honest wager earners to donate.

Re:Anectodal info (4, Interesting)

DeadTOm (671865) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747362)

Same here. I was unaffected, making $45K a year, putting into a 401K, getting decent health benefits while doing tech work for a bank (of all places) until I was laid off. We're now in mid-foreclosure. I'm getting a paid sh!t wage doing warranty repair work about 10 hours a week and it's the only work I've been able to find since I was laid off last May. I've got no health benefits, I cashed out my 401K and what was left kept us in this house long enough to learn that the bank wasn't going to work with us at all... and a year ago I was telling my laid off friends how rock solid my job was. Things went down hill fast. NotQuiteReal, you're making yourself sound like an ignorant, arrogant ass.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30748836)

Read up on the MERS hole [thisbluemarble.com] . The bank might not own your mortgage.

IANAL. Get one before doing anything. But it might be worth a shot, if only to get the bank to work with you...

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30749474)

While you still have Internet, check indeed [indeed.com] for work. There are hundreds of IT-related postings in my area.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Maxo-Texas (864189) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747528)

It's difficult, but we are starting to see retirements now so don't give up hope.

Our company is so short staffed on support that customer satisfaction is starting to edge down.

The baby boomers retire at an ever increasing rate for the next 15 years now. In 10 years, 2 million extra people will retire a year (4 million total).

Good luck.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

vlm (69642) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749358)

The baby boomers retire at an ever increasing rate for the next 15 years now. In 10 years, 2 million extra people will retire a year (4 million total).

They used to be dumping money into the stock market via 401Ks, now they'll be pulling money out of the market via cashing in 401Ks. Also they used to buy stuff, which they won't be doing after retirement/death.

Folks whom understand supply and demand, you know what to do with your investments in the "medium term". Panic is OK, as long as you're the FIRST one to panic, so to speak. Folks whom don't understand supply and demand, well you keep on dollar cost averaging, OK?

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Maxo-Texas (864189) | more than 4 years ago | (#30751632)

This was a concern for me as well.

However...
I think small cap will be okay (since it is always full of new companies).
International will be okay (since there are billions of investors besides the 30 millionish baby boomers.

Also, that money coming out of the market is going to be spent and then... inherited by the boomer's kids who will spend much more freely than the boomers.

I'm currently heavy cash because I expect another major leg down but that cost me a lot doing so. The dollar cost averaging portion I always put in has basically doubled.

Dollar cost averaging has worked consistently for me. Meanwhile my trading gets +30%, +35%, +52% in some years but then -10%, -20%, -30% in other years.

For long term moves I usually use the 50dma and the 300dma to catch about 60-80% of a move. But short term moves just eat me up- especially over the last year. While I think the market is manipulated by the government very heavily now (an analyst firm last week said there is 600 million dollars in the market that has no identifiable source), I still bit on the technical analysis signals that always worked for me in the past and they just don't work now.

Many baby boomers are sliding over to cash, annuities, etc. now. Even if the selling forces the market down, typically it takes the hit and then you have a new normal.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30749796)

9 out of 10 people are still working. Let me know when that gets to 5.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

mcvos (645701) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750818)

Financially, my situation improved quite a bit. I switched jobs in 2008 and again in 2009, both times having several interesting options to choose from, and not having a lot of competition from other applicants, as far as I know. Especially at my last job switch, some employers were really disappointed that I didn't pick them. But even in 2008, one kept contacting me after a few months to check if perhaps I wasn't happy about the job I picked and wanted to work for them instead. I now make significantly more money while working 1 day per week less than I did 2 years ago. And I bought a new house and a new car.

From what I can tell, the programming job market has been really booming these last few years. In Netherland, at least. I don't live in the US.

(It's nice we're finally getting some. Programmers used to be terribly underpaid around here.)

Re:Anectodal info (4, Insightful)

Low Ranked Craig (1327799) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747158)

The "real" (u-6) unemployment rate is about 17.5%, because the official rate only counts those looking for work. So even if 17.5% of all IT workers were laid off, 82.5% still have their jobs, so yes, it is the same for "most". I got axed along with a significant portion of my department (25%) in May when they decided to outsource a lot of that work to India, but rather than collect unemployment or bitch about it I started my own company. Head still above water...

Re:Anectodal info (3, Insightful)

DeadTOm (671865) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747380)

This morning the bean counters at NPR were figuring it was closer to 19%. Gotta make it all look good to the public though don't we.

Re:Anectodal info (3, Informative)

Ron Bennett (14590) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747640)

The U.S. job situation is made further worse by population growth, which is currently running around 1% annually in the U.S. (~3 million per year). After adjusting for deaths and retires, that necessitates, on average, an additional 100,000 - 150,000 new jobs to be created each month just to stay even.

Or to put it another way, in the 00s decade, there was roughly zero net job growth - there are about as many jobs today as back in 2000, but the U.S. population has grown by about 25+ million in that same time. Many of the jobs that exist today tend to pay less, when adjusted for inflation, than jobs did back 10 years ago.

Ron

Re:Anectodal info (2, Insightful)

phantomfive (622387) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747814)

It's not actually made worse by population growth, which is trivially demonstrable: if it were true, then we would all be unemployed right now, because at the time of the 13 colonies there were way fewer people than now. Where did all the new jobs come from?

In fact, every time the population grows, demand grows. Sure we need new jobs for them, but we also need new stores, new dry-cleaners, new wineries, new restaurants and a bunch of other stuff. On average population growth is job neutral.

The only problem is when you get an increase of workers in an area that doesn't need them. If somehow 10 million doctors moved to the US, it would cause problems. This should be easy to see, if you think about it a bit. Those doctors would need to retrain themselves in order to fit in to the economy (or the doctors they are replacing would).

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Malc (1751) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748178)

Surely population growth must be good for the economy overall. I imagine it increases demand for resources, partially counteracting some of the decrease in demand due to the recession. I.e. less might be spent per capita, but more is spent overall.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Pinky's Brain (1158667) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748768)

Only if the population growth is equally distributed, not when most of the population growth is in the poorer classes.

Re:Anectodal info (2, Insightful)

Wonko the Sane (25252) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749074)

It's not actually made worse by population growth, which is trivially demonstrable: if it were true, then we would all be unemployed right now, because at the time of the 13 colonies there were way fewer people than now. Where did all the new jobs come from?

It's trivially demonstrable by counting the number of people working that our population has 25 million more people not working now than in the year 2000.

Clearly something changed in the last 10 years compared to the previous 200.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

nedlohs (1335013) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750648)

Talk about cherry picking, 2000 was the year with the lowest unemployment rate since the 1960s, so surprise surprise now during a recession it is higher than the 50 year minimum.

And trying to go back 200 years destroys your argument anyway. In fact you only have to go back 60 or so to see that women entered the workforce - increasing the number of people wanting to work dramatically and yet unemployment didn't hit 40%.

And ignoring the cherry picking what changed is that the unsustainability of a "service" economy revealed itself

Re:Anectodal info (1)

mdwh2 (535323) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749406)

Well said. I'm in the UK, and it depresses me when I hear the xenophobic rants about how immigrants are "stealing" "British" jobs. Heaven forbid that someone try to do an honest day's work, get paid, and then use their wages to create more demand in the economy. Perhaps they should go off and live on an island somewhere - population 1, it should be no trouble getting a job, by their logic...

Re:Anectodal info (1)

jeff4747 (256583) | more than 4 years ago | (#30752000)

It's not actually made worse by population growth [...] In fact, every time the population grows, demand grows. Sure we need new jobs for them

You are saying we don't need jobs because of population growth, but sure we need jobs for population growth. Pick one.

You don't need jobs, you need wealth (2, Insightful)

jonaskoelker (922170) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748358)

100,000 - 150,000 new jobs to be created each month just to stay even.

No, what you need is more wealth.

That is, you will need the resources those people will consume over their lifetime: food, textiles, space, vehicles, energy, and so forth. Plus, those people need to have it.

Of course, a sensible thing to ask of those people is to do something in return for being given those resources, e.g. get a job. But that's not a necessity.

Imagine you had robots who could do all the work we need humans for now, and because they were well built, we only rarely needed to repair, dispose and replace them. And the robot nerds volunteer to do this work on behalf of all of society.

Then there's no need for more jobs just because you have more people. Maybe one job per n people, but n >> 1.

Point being: there's no inherent value in jobs, because your job can be doing something that doesn't have any inherent value. The classical example being "9-1: dig ditch; 1-5: fill it again". What has value is the resources people want.

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30749102)

Yeah so all you Linux fags if you want everything to be free then quit dicking with that archaic operating system and do something actually useful like building us all robots that do all the work for us. Then I'll donate for free all my mad skillzorz of leet haxzorzing or whatever you dumb twats call it.

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

mdwh2 (535323) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749436)

Maybe the robots will run Linux, thus making them cheaper to build.

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

vlm (69642) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749396)

No, what you need is more wealth.

Imagine you had robots who could do all the work we need humans for now

The Marxian view that the only source of wealth is labor just doesn't work "outside of the lab". Resource limitations, energy limitations, social fads (paying adults millions to play a childs playground game), private property issues...

Also the Marxian view that only the means of production matters, is a bit out of date. You'll still have problems with distribution, fads, marketing, intentional market distortion, etc.

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

dylan_- (1661) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750538)

The Marxian view that the only source of wealth is labor just doesn't work "outside of the lab". Resource limitations, energy limitations, social fads (paying adults millions to play a childs playground game), private property issues...

You could be right, but none of the things you listed creates wealth, so I'm not sure what the point of listing them was. What, other than labour, creates wealth?

Just to clarify my point (1)

jonaskoelker (922170) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750788)

Also the Marxian view that only the means of production matters, is a bit out of date.

I'm not arguing that view. Leave distribution and marketing to the robots; they're (by unrealistic assumption) programmed to also do that part.

The Marxian view that the only source of wealth is labor

I think I'm especially not arguing that point. At least I'm not arguing that the only source of wealth is human labour---again, leave that to the robot.

On the other hand: the robots originate from human labour. And if nobody ever works, we have no services, and nobody transforms raw natural resources into products, so we have no increase in wealth over what the natural resources are worth in their unprocessed form.

Then again, exactly what is labour? If a behaviour creates or increases value, and we see that and then label it "labour", isn't that some kind of fallacious reasoning?

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

SnapShot (171582) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750040)

Maybe one job per n people, but n >> 1.

You can't just make half the people disappear with a right-shift like that; though it would do wonders for the unemployment rate.

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

Civil_Disobedient (261825) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750372)

I used to think the problem was a lack of jobs--that is, that the disparity between humanity's cleverness at building machines to replace workers and the increasing population would inevitably lead to mass unemployment, and that the capitalist system itself was inherently flawed.

But then I thought about it on a more personal level. I have an employer, but there's no reason I couldn't be self-employed except for the fact that it would require someone else to front me the initial capital. In fact, there's nothing stopping anyone from becoming self-employed save capital. Thus the problem isn't a lack of jobs. We could solve the unemployment problem today if we wanted to. But it would require those people in control of the essential resources (ultimately land) to share some of their pie with the other children.

And the only way you can separate a wealthy person from their wealth is when there is the promise of more wealth (e.g., the entire 1990s).

Re:You don't need jobs, you need wealth (1)

Shajenko42 (627901) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750764)

And the only way you can separate a wealthy person from their wealth is when there is the promise of more wealth (e.g., the entire 1990s).

Well, there are other ways, but most of them are illegal.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

phantomfive (622387) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747674)

You know, I hear this sort of complaint a lot, but honestly I don't feel too sorry for people who are unemployed and not actually looking. It's not THAT hard to send out a resume once a month or so.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747762)

If you want to flip burgers for less than you'd make on unemployment, be my guest. 'Specially since you've been contributing to your own.

Until then, I collect handsome payments which are paying off my school as long as I leave a time-slot open for full-time work in my sector, comparably paid as compared to my last few jobs.

Man, it's going to be so nice to graduate with no student loans.

Re:Anectodal info (3, Insightful)

pwizard2 (920421) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747880)

You know, I hear this sort of complaint a lot, but honestly I don't feel too sorry for people who are unemployed and not actually looking. It's not THAT hard to send out a resume once a month or so.

If you have an established career, then it's merely difficult (but not impossible) to find a good job these days. New grads have it worse than everyone else in this economy... not only do they have to compete with each other, but they also have to compete with hordes of other people who have years of experience and are clamoring for the same jobs as the grads because they are desperate. I was told that a degree would give me a huge advantage, only to graduate right in time for this huge recession. (or minor depression, depending on who you talk to) I blame the university for lying to me just as much as I blame myself for actually believing them. New grads can send out a million resumes for all the good it would do, and it's not going to make much of a difference if there's a huge glut of unemployed workers with real-world experience on the job market. It's easy to lose hope and stop trying after 6 months or more of no results. These days, employers have all the advantages and can afford to be choosy.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

zmollusc (763634) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748180)

Hey,kid, give it 15-20 years and you will find that nobody wants to know about all your work experience and all the good jobs go to the new grads.

Keep trying for jobs, especially when you have one, try to keep debt to a minimum (easier said than done, but evaluate and compare prices on _everything_ you buy and you will find surprising variations, also save up for things as by the time you can afford it you might find you don't want it any more), remember that your employer doesn't give a crap about you, don't buy extended warranties, remember insurance payouts are just a loan that will be clawed back later.

Basically, keep struggling on and you will get your reward in the end (death).
Also, try and keep off my lawn.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Kjella (173770) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748374)

I was in your position when I graduated, there had been a real dip so all the poor jobs figured I'd jump as soon as conditions got better (honestly, not such a bad guess) and the good jobs always found someone with a bit of real-life experience who they didn't have to "train" to be a worker instead of a student. I know it's not a help right now, but trust me once you do have a few years experience that education will pull you out of the ranks and into senior positions. I was interviewing recently for a job and the CFO (100 man company) commented that he had a great deal of respect for my degree, even though it's 7 years since I graduated. And I got the job too, though in my case I'm just looking for a better job in an economy that is recovering much better than the US one.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

indiechild (541156) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748808)

Hey, hang in there -- things will get better eventually. I graduated after the dotcom bust in 2002 so I found it pretty tough then as well. I must've sent out two hundred cover letters and job applications over the course of a year, it drove me nuts. You might have to work in another industry field for a while until things pick up. The web and tech industry is much more advanced these days, so I say now is the time to innovate and start new ventures.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Bill Dog (726542) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749266)

zmollusc speakum de truth, at least in programming you're "senior" by the time you have 3-5 years of experience, and after 10 years few will look at you, with the assumption that you're too high-priced. It's basically like being a pop star -- you're struggling now to get noticed, and when you finally do, for a short period of time you'll be in high demand and your income will rise dramatically, but then soon you'll be yesterday's news, assumed no longer hip to the latest trends. So take some comfort that your brief flash of employability and good times will eventually come, because they sure haven't been hiring people like me with 10-15 years this past year. In perceived value, cheap > experienced, in this industry, and that's what you have going for you right now.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

dkleinsc (563838) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749526)

Damn straight.

In a conversation with a (fairly honest) recruiter a while back, I asked him about the market for new grads, since I had friends who were just graduating and might want some referrals. He explained that any software guy with less than 3 years of experience was considered essentially impossible to place, because statistically most techies make their biggest mistakes in the first 3 years, and all employers know this. Well, about 3 years after that policy became the norm, for some reason a lot of tech firms are having a tough time finding qualified entry level applicants here in the US and are "forced" to look at oversees applicants.

Searches on Monster and the like will bear this out: most "entry-level" positions advertised require 3-5 years of experience.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30751160)

You may want to consider, changing the world, strike it out on your own. You are at the best time to do so. If I could do it over again, I would have asked my parents to put up with me a little longer for some room and board, I would have asked my richer relatives to invest in my idea and I would have built something that would have generated reoccurring revenue for myself. It is so clear how easy it is after the opportunity window has passed, when you look back on it with the lenses of experience. I finally did just that in my 30's and with kids which made it all the more scary but I was tired of being kicked around. I have never looked back. Not only did I do that but I made a name for myself. Now I beat the offers away, for top positions with big names.

No one changes your situation but you, no matter what anyone promises you, this will always be true.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Kleen13 (1006327) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748016)

Exactly what I did under similar circumstances. My business in still fledgling, but new clients every day. Still keeping my eye out, but there certainly seems to be lots of people fighting over the same jobs, and salary offers aren't what you'd expect. I'd love to see a tech surge.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30749666)

Still keeping my eye out, but there certainly seems to be lots of people fighting over the same jobs, and salary offers aren't what you'd expect. I'd love to see a tech surge.

Simple solution to achieve your wish... Deport all the cheap labor Indians on H1-B visas and there would be a huge upswing in demand for domestic IT personnel. Wage suppression is directly correlated to the influx of lower cost labor into what was once a white-collar profession.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Slagothor (1156549) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747522)

I was never unemployed during this current downturn, and I am in tech.

Probably the same for most... I'm just sayin...

Well I'm just absolutely fucking happy you've managed to make it through the storm. Some of us haven't you incensitive asshole. I'm so glad you kept your job and I love when ass clowns tell me how they kept their jobs. I hate to do this because I love Slashdot, but Fuck off and die. Thanks for worrying about your other thousands of colleagues that didn't get the same treatment as you.

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747740)

Fuck off and die

Wow, with an attitude like that, I'd want to keep you around "in a storm"... NOT.

Re:Anectodal info (1)

Surt (22457) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747538)

Probably the same for at least 70%, given most states have only a 15% unemployment rate.

Re:Anectodal info (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747996)

Well.... ffffuuuuuckckkkk yyoooouuuuu !!! :)

They cut

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30748648)

It's amazing how many people have flamed you for that comment.

First they complain about all the fear mongering, etc. media does... And then when someone points out that while recession has been bad for many, most have been relatively unaffected and that life will go on, he is arrogant, ignorant and insensitive clod.

Come on, people...

Re:Anectodal info (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30751412)

Will you all quit with that silly 'I'm just sayin' shit?

What is that all about? It sounds ignorant when typed out, as if you're trying to emulate something purposefully. Do realize you sound stupid by tagging that at the end of every other damned comment.

finding forrester? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30746840)

you're the man now, dog!

Re:finding forrester? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30746948)

Or more like Dr. Clayton Forrester! Push the button, Frank! Amirite?

That's nice (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30746922)

If you're in sales that's great, but the IT employee pool has become so diluted that it's getting harder and harder to find a good paying job.

Re:That's nice (1)

CxDoo (918501) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748776)

In times like these the sales are the worst field to be in. It's buyers market all the way down - employment, real estate, consumables...

Soup is good food (3, Insightful)

t0qer (230538) | more than 4 years ago | (#30746950)

Quoting Soup is good food by the dead kennedys;

We're sorry
You'll just have to leave
Unemployment runs out after just six weeks
How does it feel to be a budget cut?
You're snipped
You no longer exist

Your number's been purged from our central computer
So we can rig the facts
And sweep you under the rug
See our chart? Unemployment's going down
If that ruins your life that's your problem

=====

I guess it's going up, depending on who's perspective you see it from.

Still unemployed (4, Interesting)

lpaul55 (137990) | more than 4 years ago | (#30746952)

Does this mean I'll get a job this year?

The tech jobs market in Boston does feel less dead now than it did for most of 2009. I entered the job market in April and it was six months before I had an interview. Now I've had three in three months. It's tricky to extrapolate from those data points to locate a job offer but it does give me hope.

Re:Still unemployed (4, Funny)

Bengie (1121981) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747290)

Man I'm lucky I took longer to graduate. Local large company did all of its hiring during end of Spring semester when most people graduate. I missed that. But I graduated in Fall and got picked up by another company 3 months later. Turns out the other company did lay-offs.. w00t.

Then the market crashed.. good time to start my 401k. My 401k started about 2 months before the crash. Within 8 months and investing $1k into it, it's worth $6.5k. That's a good return me thinks.

Re:Still unemployed (1)

hemp (36945) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747556)

Then the market crashed.. good time to start my 401k. My 401k started about 2 months before the crash. Within 8 months and investing $1k into it, it's worth $6.5k. That's a good return me thinks.

Bernie Madoff would be jealous of that return.

Re:Still unemployed (1)

Sulphur (1548251) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748620)

Bernard Madoff got that return.

--

Correlation does not cause implication.

Re:Still unemployed (1)

MartinSchou (1360093) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747704)

Within 8 months and investing $1k into it, it's worth $6.5k.

I misread that as investing 1k a month and though "yes, probably slightly above market average"

Re:Still unemployed (1)

FishOuttaWater (1163787) | more than 4 years ago | (#30748204)

Buying in a down market is a good thing, man. Check it again two to five years from now. Don't follow your gut and bolt when it's down.

It may be true (4, Interesting)

parallel_prankster (1455313) | more than 4 years ago | (#30746970)

I graduated last November. I was looking for jobs since August. I did not get any calls at least until end of November. Since then I have had an interview every day and finally had the luxury to choose from multiple offers. I know a lot of companies are starting up new projects. A lot of the jobs in my area - Computer Architecture/Systems/Networks is being driven by Cloud Computing. Datacenter style jobs are big. Most positions require experience in Fiber Chanel SAN etc or hardware for large Datacenter switches.

Re:It may be true (2, Funny)

fluffernutter (1411889) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747028)

Sounds great.. Who wants to work in a tiny shop with 20 linux boxes with SATA drives anyway.

Re:It may be true (3, Insightful)

MoFoQ (584566) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747126)

if it pays the bills and keeps me from being homeless...I would...and I'm sure the millions who are unemployed on the brink would agree with me.

Re:It may be true (3, Informative)

mlts (1038732) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747670)

If it paid the salary, I wouldn't care if I was paid to just keep one Windows Small Business Server PC up and running. You get what you can take in this economy. No, it wouldn't be as fun as a rackful of high end suns with a root prompt just waiting for you, but it is better than nothing.

"unofficially"? (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30746972)

What makes it official? Netcraft?

Re:"unofficially"? (1)

Penguinoflight (517245) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747022)

I'd assume some numbers that aren't actually still down. Forrester is using numbers extrapolated from a non-complete quarter (Q4 2009) to suggest a change in trends from Q3 2009 which would be good for the future. Things are looking up a little where I live, and I hope forrester is right... the fact is there's no data yet.

Yay for the second derivative! (3, Funny)

SlappyBastard (961143) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747012)

Now if only people could eat inflection points.

Re:Yay for the second derivative! (1)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747634)

If you keep varying the averaging interval and keep deriving you'll eventually run into a positive number. Isn't that what economists are paid for?

"Real progress" from the second derivative! (1)

KWTm (808824) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749808)

Yay for the second derivative! Now if only people could eat inflection points.

Point taken! It reminds me of this poster we had in our test lab where I first worked:

(in big bold letters)
We're making REAL PROGRESS!

(in much smaller letters underneath)
Things are getting worse at a slower rate.

Real "boost" or just upgrades? (3, Interesting)

Darkness404 (1287218) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747018)

Is this a real tech boost or just places finally needing upgrades? When Vista was found to be needless for both the consumer and business market, most consumers cut spending much in technology and businesses cut any jobs upgrading. When the recession hit, they still had little reason to upgrade. In previous years, major changes happened, compare the speed boost from a 1995 Pentium to a 1999 Pentium III. Now compare a Pentium Dual-Core to a Core 2 Duo, is there really that much of a difference in the 4 years between a 2006 Pentium Dual-Core and a Core 2 Duo? Yes, if you are a gamer it might make a lot of difference, but for most tasks, you wouldn't notice the extra speed, especially when comparing a Pentium to a Pentium III. So when the hardware is good enough, the upgraded software terrible, who wants to spend the money to upgrade? Now, new hardware advances combined with software people don't completely hate (Windows 7) is giving people reason to upgrade.

Re:Real "boost" or just upgrades? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747080)

Chiding folks 'bout moderation
Is total Slashdot masturbation
When you put that in your sig
It shows that you're a dick

Re:Real "boost" or just upgrades? (1)

Idiomatick (976696) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747354)

I'm ok with having the mods reminded of these things on occasion... it doesn't hurt.

Re:Real "boost" or just upgrades? (1)

Glonoinha (587375) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747198)

Hardware starts to die after a certain time (bathtub curve) and for laptops three years is pushing it pretty hard for hard drives and batteries. Batteries are fairly easy to replace, but a hard drive crash on a laptop will cost a company way more in lost work than the cost of a new laptop.

That and at certain points, it's more cost effective to replace a computer with a faster computer - if a computer hardware upgrade means you can make 8 runs of a particular large batch process in the same time it used to take to do 3, and you can sell the proceeds of those extra 5 runs for $200 apiece - that computer pays for itself in one day. Pretty simple math.

I've found that the biggest jump in the past four to six years is when machines (laptops specifically) went from single core to dual core. Where a single core machine clocks when a single process gets busy - a dual core machine keeps on working. But you're right - once you've cleared the SMP hurdle the progress in the last couple of years hasn't been overwhelming notable.

Re:Real "boost" or just upgrades? (1)

mdwh2 (535323) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749344)

There's more to tech than Intel x86 CPUs!

Yes, my desktop computer is for more purposes good enough - in the 1990s it seemed like a continual struggle to upgrade, and still not be as good as I'd want. Now I upgrade the desktop when something breaks.

But at the same time, in the last few years I've been buying a laptop, flat screen monitor, mp3 player, two phones. Other possible purchases include netbooks, media players, ebook readers. Add to that the continual income generated by broadband, mobile broadband and phone contracts.

Like any market, technology will mature, and growth in new areas are needed. But there's plenty of growth in "tech" yet. When these markets mature, there'll be yet new areas of technology. It's a bit like someone in the 70s asking if it's a real tech growth, because his TV and record player is good enough...

Tech whining (1, Insightful)

Singularity42 (1658297) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747102)

Tech workers are comparable well payed and in a good position. Haiti had a sudden downturn--that's real problems. Perspective and all until we all hit Singularity.

Re:Tech whining (3, Insightful)

CAIMLAS (41445) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747458)

Much easier said if you were employed mid-year 2008 and remained so throughout the 'downturn'.

That 'downturn' hurt, bad. Being out of work for 6 months would have been nice, but there were weeks at a time when there were no tech related positions, and nobody was interested in hiring someone with "professional" work experience for even tasks such as menial labor or food service. Good luck finding work out of your general area, too: my observation has been that there are so many IT types out of work, most places aren't even bothering to interview non-locals. There are just too many qualified applicants to pick from locally.

(I suspect concern that I would "up and leave" at the drop of a hat/promise of decent employment.) It's been 2 years, and at this point, I suspect there's not an end in sight due to the extended sabbatical.

The most extravegant thing I've bought since around March 08 was the occasional six pack of beer - maybe every other month. So yeah, that's not a terribly "good position".

now I see... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747114)

now I see why that bill in the state legislature about recreational marijuana made that milestone.

man....it ain't over until the fat lady sings (or I, along with millions of other unemployed workers in the tech field get a job).

Recovery? (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747124)

"The most likely alternative to our forecast that the U.S. and global IT markets will recover in 2010 is a faltering tech market due to a double-dip recession that returns in 2010 after a brief two- to three-quarter economic recovery," the report reads. "Should this happen, U.S. tech purchases would decline by 3% to 4% in 2010, with a second-half decline offsetting a first-half tech revival."

Maybe if the economy has a double dip recession the politicians will learn that their stimulus plans and the continued inflationary policy of the Fed are bad ideas. By then I think it will be too late, the dollar is on a fast pace to destruction. Perhaps that's Obama's job creation plan, debase the currency so much that it will be too expensive to outsource to Indian and Russian labor. Delaying a market correction will only make it worse, Government intervention cause and prolonged the Great Depression.

Re:Recovery? (1)

Surt (22457) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747578)

Massive inflation is my big hope ... I'm buying a big fixed asset right now with a loan (a house), the most house I can afford with the depressed rates from the banking shenanigans and the reduced prices.
So if inflation goes crazy, it's all good for me. Make my payments on the loan seem like nothing. Woohoo inflation!

Re:Recovery? (2, Informative)

Ron Bennett (14590) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747830)

On the loan, yes. But you're overlooking what is, in many locales, the fastest growing homeowner expense, property taxes.

So while your fixed rate mortgage payment on the asset will stay the same, don't expect the same for property taxes.

There are many people paying over of 30%, in some instances upwards of 50%, in addition to the mortgage rate they were originally quoted.

For example, an 6% fixed rate loan for a home at $200,000, assuming 10% down, would come out to around $1100 monthly payment. Sounds pretty good. But in some places, property taxes on a property of that amount could easily top $6000 per year ($500+ per month!). More to the point, property taxes is often a large expense and likely to greatly increase over time faster than inflation.

And to make matters worse, especially for houses under homeowner associations, special assessments, which are often not limited by law - that is to say, the roofs need to be replaced, road replacement, sewer repairs, etc can easily run upwards $10,000 per housing unit - this not theoretical either ... I've known several people caught in such a situation and having to quickly borrow large sums of money to pay it. Special assessments are not limited to just home owner associations, though more common with them, in that many municipalities will require the homeowner to pay for sidewalks/curbs, sewer / water line installation/replacement, etc.

In short, don't automatically assume real estate is the safe place to be in an inflationary environment, because it may not be unless one buys in an area with low property taxes and is relatively certain they won't increase much nor get hit with special assessments.

Ron

Re:Recovery? (1)

Surt (22457) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747870)

I'm fortunate to live in CA, where property taxes are fixed at the time of purchase, thank you prop 13, and of course was not stupid enough to buy into an HOA.

Re:Recovery? (1)

mdwh2 (535323) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749372)

But even if you rent, you still indirectly pay those property taxes - what do you think the landlord does to the rent each year if his taxes have gone up? So yes, it's true to say that you're not immune to inflation, but property tax applies to both home owning and renting, and as long as he gets salary increases with inflation too, he'll still be better off.

Admittedly I'm in the UK though, where evidently things are better - my property tax (council tax) is lower than your figures, and about 10% of my mortgage repayments.

Re:Recovery? (1)

exi1ed0ne (647852) | more than 4 years ago | (#30750270)

In short, don't automatically assume real estate is the safe place to be in an inflationary environment, because it may not be unless one buys in an area with low property taxes and is relatively certain they won't increase much nor get hit with special assessments.

Not to mention you also sacrifice flexibility. If the job market tanks bad in your location it is FAR more difficult to up-root yourself to another area where the suck isn't so bad. If you think it is tough finding a job in a dying community, try selling a house in one! The job market is always asymmetrical in it's ups and downs - some areas will fail first, and others will recover first.

Re:Recovery? (1)

nedlohs (1335013) | more than 4 years ago | (#30751380)

Real estate doesn't do that well in times of "massive inflation". It isn't exportable and hence there's a limit on price that lots of other things don't have.

A farmer can grow his corn and export it overseas where people can afford to pay a lot more (because in terms of their currency the price hasn't inflated). But a real estate owner can't export rental properties (in most markets anyway, in a tourist area you effectively can) and hence the rent he can get is limited by what people in the area can afford.

So food and energy prices skyrocket eating up a larger portion of people's income leaving a smaller portion left for rent.

They still do go up, just not as fast as other things. And since bank's will give you 5:1 leverage or even 30:1 if you do an FHA loan you can likely make up the difference on that.

Re:Recovery? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30747708)

What recovery? Unlike earlier recessions where .coms or the subprime mortgage bubble got us out of, this one is not just a temporary item. This is essentially permanent. The US has no manufacturing capacity. Without making goods that people will buy, what do you export, other than Britney Spears, securities, bullshit, and raw resources? At best we are in for a lost decade, just like Japan and Europe.

Where is the money for a recovery? The US bailed out the banks, and all that dough went offshore. Since there is no production capacity this side of the pond, it takes going to offshore companies for anything and everything in every facet of product design. Want a robot, go to Taiwan. Want anodized aluminum cases, go to Beijing. The FED prints money like no tomorrow, but all that does is ensure hyperinflation a la Zimbabwe or 1930s Germany is just around the corner.

[1]: You can't even find basic metal tooling in the US. I had to get a differential gear made for a custom tractor, and I ended up having to contract through Alibaba with a Chinese firm for such a simple item. If US companies can't even machine something this basis, how is innovation and economic recovery ever to come our way?

That was the top of this year ;-) (3, Insightful)

anton_kg (1079811) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747172)

Some people predict a second lag down. I won't be surprised if the article has been published in highest point of this year. Looking at VIX (scare factor) it could be the case.

The new reality. (2, Insightful)

The Bastard (25271) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747282)

I think Forrester is being overly optimistic. CIOs may be ready and willing to spend, but it does not mean the business (read: owner, CEO/Board, CFO) are going to jump on the bandwagon. Each purchase/hire will need to undergo a serious cost-benefit evaluation, and the lowest possible dollar paid. This is a result not only of the recession of the past year-plus, but also the very real and serious concerns businesses have of what upcoming legislation (and associated regulatory environments) is going to cost them.

Re:The new reality. (2, Insightful)

rsborg (111459) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747308)

Each purchase/hire will need to undergo a serious cost-benefit evaluation, and the lowest possible dollar paid.

Not to mention continued interest in offshoring almost all actual production capacity (ie, programming, industry, etc)... I'm still competing with folks overseas who cost much less.

Re:The new reality. (3, Interesting)

Maxo-Texas (864189) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747572)

I was talking to a co-worker today.. he said one year of college (& dorm) was now 15k at the local universities in texas (19k in arkansas for out of state after grants).

How can you justify paying $60-80k for a college degree that pays zippo and may not even get you a job.

More if you put dorms on credit too.

Re:The new reality. (2, Interesting)

Surt (22457) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747652)

That's precisely why more people are doing 2 years of community college + 2 (or even 1.5) years of university. Halve the cost of your education, and get the same degree. Unless you're weighing going to an ivy league where the connections you'll make in the freshman dorm may earn you a few million extra in lifetime earnings, there's just no reason to go to university for those first two years any more.

The beat goes on... (-1, Redundant)

Niubi (1578987) | more than 4 years ago | (#30747866)

Given that economies have cycles, this is hardly groundbreaking, earth shattering news. Especially when you have companies like http://www.dubli.com/ [dubli.com] who have found a business model to sell tech products at superlow price - obviously leading to increased consumerism, and a happier economy. Why more people haven't noticed this site, I don't know. Even so, outside of that, it's good to hear that things are looking up again - I miss the boom days...

Re:The beat goes on... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30748044)

"obviously leading to increased consumerism, and a happier economy"

This is the typical mantra of an American materialist. The effect of consuming increasing happiness saturates pretty quickly after satisfying the basic needs. Welcome to the post-material society!

http://www.happyplanetindex.org/

Re:The beat goes on... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#30748418)

Wow, at a quick glance it does almost look like real turf....

Over ? (1)

Yvanhoe (564877) | more than 4 years ago | (#30749342)

Then why are stock options being sold like crazy these days ?

"IT" covers a lot of ground... (1)

rnturn (11092) | more than 4 years ago | (#30751484)

... and I didn't see anything in the article that led me to believe that this upturn wouldn't just be an increase in business for hardware and software vendors. Most people working in "IT" work for other types of businesses. That hardware manufacturers and software development companies are going to see improvement is great but that's only a small part of the business environment that involves "IT".

I suspect that what Forrester is seeing is that a lot of companies may be, at long last, planning on opening up the purse strings to go out and buy the equipment and software for projects that have been on hold for a long time. Good news for the Dells, HPs, and Microsofts of the world. Call me pessimistic, but I also suspect that they'll be executing those projects with existing employees and some contractors (as needed) rather than adding actual FTEs.

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