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Twitter Predicts Box Office Results

samzenpus posted about 4 years ago | from the tweet-to-the-bank dept.

Movies 44

netjockey2 writes "In a study published by HP entitled 'Predicting the future with Social Media,' researchers Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A. Huberman 'demonstrate how the content of social networks can be used to predict events in the real world.' In particular, they say they are 'using threads from Twitter.com to predict box office revenues of films.'"

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44 comments

this story is a dupe. (4, Informative)

Nadaka (224565) | about 4 years ago | (#31734854)

We saw it last week.

Re:this story is a dupe. (0, Offtopic)

teslar (706653) | about 4 years ago | (#31735002)

Ah, but now there is an obligatory xkcd [xkcd.com] for it. Surely this counts as re-posting a story due to recent changes in circumstances? ;)

xkcd is not funny. Please stop linking to it. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31735434)

Every time that I read Slashdot, I see a comment linking to some xkcd comic. Every time I've clicked those links, I've been horribly disappointed. xkcd is just not funny.

Dilbert, now that's a funny comic. Calvin & Hobbes is another funny comic. They are witty and intelligent. They bring genuine laughter, and even make you think a little bit about their message.

xkcd, on the other hand, typically just makes an obscure Internet- or geek-culture reference, and idiots somehow find it "funny".

Do us a favor, and don't link to xkcd. Find a relevant Dilbert comic instead.

(I'm sure that some xkcd fanatics will start replying to this with xkcd links. Don't bother, I'm not going to look at your replies.)

Re:xkcd is not funny. Please stop linking to it. (0, Troll)

quantumplacet (1195335) | about 4 years ago | (#31735496)

you are definitely right, because humor is not subjective, and the millions of people who read and enjoy xkcd are simply wrong, while you are simply right. out of curiosity, when will you be posting the comprehensive list of what is and isn't funny so that i'll have a point of reference to check before i ever laugh at anything?

Re:xkcd is not funny. Please stop linking to it. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31735546)

the millions of idiots who read and enjoy xkcd

Fixed that for you.

Re:this story is a dupe. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31736574)

In other news, Cmdr Taco can predict when Taco Bell will sell most of its tacos. More news at 13

fuck you (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31734862)

Stupid faggots

Less Than Three Days Old (3, Funny)

Reason58 (775044) | about 4 years ago | (#31734896)

Re:Less Than Three Days Old (1)

kiehlster (844523) | about 4 years ago | (#31736832)

Oh, I bet we could. If the popularity of the story on social networks is high enough and the original posting didn't have any high-profile news outlets linked, then we can probably determine how quickly a /. user who only gets the weekly newspaper decides to post their findings linked to said high-profile newspaper web article when they get to work on Monday morning.

Of course, these dupes could be reduced if posts with high-profile news links are checked before they are given the green light.

Did it predict "Motherhood" in the UK (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31740110)

Did it predict that Uma Thurman's "Motherhood" would pull in a whopping £88 ($130) with 12 paid tickets in its first weekend of release in the UK?

http://www.cinematical.com/2010/03/26/uma-thurmans-motherhood-opens-to-88-in-uk-thats-131-00/

Amazing ... Not! (3, Insightful)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | about 4 years ago | (#31734948)

Seeing people posting about what they're doing does not predict what they are doing, it documents it. This is just another attempt at justifying all the wasted electrons used for this social media sh!t.

BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

Re:Amazing ... Not! (1)

quantumplacet (1195335) | about 4 years ago | (#31735078)

BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

except the number of posts complaining about the iPad were and are far far outweighed by the number of posts praising it. this is combing twitter posts, not slashdot posts. if it used slashdot posts then it would predict that the iPad will fail, that Linux is the most popular desktop OS, and that people love pictures of gaping assholes.

Re:Amazing ... Not! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31735264)

if it used slashdot posts then it would predict that the iPad will fail, that Linux is the most popular desktop OS, and that people love pictures of gaping assholes.

[Meat Loaf] Two out of three ain't baaaaad [/Meat Loaf]

Re:Amazing ... Not! (1)

TheRaven64 (641858) | about 4 years ago | (#31735678)

Linux is the most popular desktop OS

Actually, it is. You see, everyone who uses an OS (any OS) on a regular basis grows to hate it over time. Linux is the desktop OS that the fewest people use, and therefore that the fewest people hate. That makes it the most popular desktop OS (well, except for *BSD, Haiku, and a few others...).

Re:Amazing ... Not! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31735792)

I dont know about that, I have met people that have used solaris for years on end day in day out and they dont hate it as much as they hate the windows OS they have at home.

Something about instability and getting infected if you open any webpage compared to not having that problem seems to adjust the hatred slider.

Re:Amazing ... Not! (2, Funny)

TipsyMongoose (1647229) | about 4 years ago | (#31735228)

This is just another attempt at justifying all the wasted electrons used for this social media sh!t.

...he said by posting a peer rated comment on a community updated news blog.

Re:Amazing ... Not! (1)

droptone (798379) | about 4 years ago | (#31738300)

BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

Did you get a representative sample? Or are you just voicing the opinion of a small group of tech blogs?

Re:Amazing ... Not! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31739550)

BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed.

Uh, are you talking about Twitter posts or something like Slashdot? If you went by Twitter post then that very clearly and strongly indicated that the iPad would succeed. Also the stock market and futures market predicted Apple had a hit on their hands.

Congratulations Sirs... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31734956)

You just rediscovered statistics and polls.

Attention samzenpus (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31735230)

Duping is one thing, but did you even glance at TFA? It's a rambling, anonymous, incoherent post on a forum, containing no links or any real information about the topic. An actual sentence:

"An analysis of trade chirp not only to know the fuss about a movie, but public sentiment vis-à-vis a production before its release and after that the audience saw it."

Re:Attention samzenpus (1)

PitaBred (632671) | about 4 years ago | (#31737032)

But it used the magic phrase vis-à-vis. That means it has to be legitimate research, right?

In other news, sheep go "bah"... (3, Funny)

mwalleisa (561970) | about 4 years ago | (#31735326)

Gee, spamming Twitter about a movie results in herds of sheep trampling a path to the box office? Yawn.

Re:In other news, sheep go "bah"... (1)

BRSloth (578824) | about 4 years ago | (#31736240)

IMHO, that's why it can predict such thing: So far, Twitter seems "untainted" with companies false bloggers and such (let me emphasise the "seems" part), so people really take a bad word as a real, person-to-person, bad word and a good word about a movie as a real thing.

Once people realize Twitter can be tainted as blogs and as any other social network, it will stop being so accurate.

Right... (5, Interesting)

djupedal (584558) | about 4 years ago | (#31735396)

...until Hollywood learns how to game Twitter. Should be any minute now...

Re:Right... (1)

macemoneta (154740) | about 4 years ago | (#31737470)

...until Hollywood learns how to game Twitter. Should be any minute now...

That works both ways. We can use it to game the system to get the shows and movies we want made. All's fair.

snakes on a plane (1)

Firkragg14 (992271) | about 4 years ago | (#31735552)

Anyone remember when snakes on a plane got a massive budget increase due to all the talk about it on the internet then pulled in very little at the box office.

Re:snakes on a plane (1)

wjousts (1529427) | about 4 years ago | (#31735896)

Actually, Snakes on a Plane did open in the #1 spot, but it didn't take in as much box office that weekend as pundits were suggesting. It dropped off rapidly after that when people realized what a truly awful movie it was. We can only hope for a sequel "More Motherfucking Snakes on More Motherfucking Planes!".

Re:snakes on a plane (1)

Nadaka (224565) | about 4 years ago | (#31736064)

The bar has been raised by the cinema experience of Giant Squid vs Giant Shark. The sequel to Snakes on a Plane will require a 300+ meter long rattle snake leaping from the ground to destroy a 747 at cruising altitude.

Twitter has you Neo (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 4 years ago | (#31736004)

If you die on twitter, do you die in real life?

Can Twitter predict the Stock Market? (1)

reillymj (1780136) | about 4 years ago | (#31736040)

I'm sure some Gecko-type has already thought of this, and is trying it in a secret lab somewhere. Then again, if I was an investment banker, I'd be immensely greedy and paranoid and never tweet about any company I was interested in.

Re:Can Twitter predict the Stock Market? (1)

Jer (18391) | about 4 years ago | (#31737766)

As a predictor, stuff like twitter or facebook or blogs can tell you what might be popular. Twitter is particularly a good indicator because with a few exceptions people use it as if it was a private conversation among small groups of friends even though in reality they're broadcasting to the entire world. That means you've got a good set of data from people in certain demographics (mostly people with extra time and money to spend on entertainment - exactly the demographic that movie marketers are looking for).

If you're looking for stock picks, data off of twitter is probably not a good bet. The same folks who are going to be able to tell you what movies are going to be popular this weekend (not necessarily good - just popular) are probably not going to be able to give an indication of what stocks are going to be going up this week.

OTOH, I suppose Twitter might be usable for a pump-and-dump scam. If you can figure out a way to get day traders twittering. But then, the yahoo finance message boards are already pretty good for pump-and-dump scams, and I'm not sure that twitter really provides anything new on that front.

sounds like... (2, Interesting)

hitmark (640295) | about 4 years ago | (#31737152)

what happened to ang lee's hulk, to the point where the movie corp wanted all mobile phones banned from showings of said movie, for fear that negative options relayed by sms where affecting box office returns.

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