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Kojima Predicts the End of the Console

CmdrTaco posted more than 4 years ago | from the i-predict-pizza dept.

Sony 195

nathanielinbrazil writes "Konami founder and developer Hideo Kojima predicts gaming console is a dying breed. Anticipates gaming on demand via Internet. 'It's a bold prediction,' Sony Computer Entertainment Japan President Hiroshi Kawano told reporters nervously. 'We hope he continues to develop for platforms, but we deeply respect his sense of taking on a challenge.' Kojima launches his follow-up game Heavy Metal Solid Gear: Peace Walker in late April designed for the PSP."

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Doubtful (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31777804)

It's the other way around. Most of my friends have ditched computers for consoles in the last few years with virtually none returning.

Aside from steam, I've ditched computer gaming too.

Re:Doubtful (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777892)

Most of my friends have ditched computers for consoles in the last few years with virtually none returning.

Kojima is talking about ditching consoles for handhelds.

Re:Doubtful (1)

megamerican (1073936) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778200)

I think in terms of the end of next decade he is right. The console will be replaced with iphone/ipad type devices which can be tethered to your TV/computer/etc... and be used as a gaming device.

This is also the way the desktop computer will be going as well.

Re:Doubtful (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778406)

As long as I can get HD high resolution graphics from that tethered device that don't look like someone took a shit on my 52 inch tv when the mobile device is tethered I might be sold. But right now there's always an (understandable) degradation of quality when moving from a tiny screen to a large one. Also games designed for tiny screen don't play like games designed for large screens. Large screens provide more real estate to do more cool stuff.

Re:Doubtful (1)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778920)

Console makers are predicting the end of Konami.

After a hiatus, I just bought another console game earlier this week (my 34th for the Wii - Pinball Hall of Fame - The Gottlieb Collection), so consoles are alive and well.

Konami, on the other hand ... only one game from them, $89 and it was absolute trash.

Re:Doubtful (5, Insightful)

LatencyKills (1213908) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777924)

I like computer gaming for the depth - Total War, Master of Orion, etc. Console gaming fulfills the high adrenaline stuff - God of War, Uncharted. Of course, computers get some of that too, but not all of it. But all of this is really off topic. What I believe he's trying to say (having not read a single line of TFA) is that there is strength in a subscription-based gaming service. It's an interesting concept. If you pay $2 an hour to play Bioshock 2, and I finish it in 6 hours, that's only 12 dollars. But I have a friend who is on like his fourth play through - he'd be up near $50. It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me. It would also save me the heartache of paying $60 for C&C4, when at whatever hourly rate they wanted to charge I could find out that it's awful in an hour or less. Ultimately I think there's room for both services, if for no other reason than the ability to play games in places where there is no significant connectivity.

Re:Doubtful (1)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778070)

What I believe he's trying to say (having not read a single line of TFA) is that there is strength in a subscription-based gaming service. It's an interesting concept. If you pay $2 an hour to play Bioshock 2, and I finish it in 6 hours, that's only 12 dollars. But I have a friend who is on like his fourth play through - he'd be up near $50. It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me.

I apologize for the generalization, but aren't most heavy gamers also better gamers simply due to the nature of their many hours of experience? Perhaps they'd burn through Bioshock 2 in only three or four hours the first time through, and even less the next time through. With 'volume discounts' they may actually get a better deal than a mid-casual gamer in the long run.

Re:Doubtful (1)

biryokumaru (822262) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778998)

Spending less time playing a game isn't often better, particularly with games with a great deal of intriguing storyline like Bioshock. Anyone who thinks the merit of a game is how quickly you can power through it is missing something rather important.

Re:Doubtful (2, Insightful)

DeadDecoy (877617) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778208)

I'd hate to have that for any bioware or strategy game due to the sheer amount of gameplay involved. I imagine quite a few people here would be poor if they had to pay an hourly fee to play Civilization; Small games can last up to 6 hours :P. If we moved to a subscription based architecture, developers would probably change their design strategy to generate short bursts of content, which will ultimately lead to smaller, more shallow games. No offense to Telltale games, but the episodic content of Monkey Island and Sam & Max feels like a shadow of their predecessors' former glory. I wouldn't mind seeing what the industry does with subscription based content, but I wouldn't want to see it move as a whole to this form of distribution, at least for some developers.

Re:Doubtful (1)

metamatic (202216) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778874)

It seems to me then that a subscription service penalizes heavy gamers but would be great for mid-casual gamers like me.

It also penalizes people whose gameplay style is explorational, like me. When I get a new GTA game, usually the first thing I do is spend a couple of weeks just wandering around the city looking at stuff and learning my way around.

Re:Doubtful (2, Insightful)

jshackney (99735) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778972)

Next time, try reading the article. He's talking about platform independence, not subscriptions.

"In the near future, we'll have games that don't depend on any platform. Gamers should be able to take the experience with them in their living rooms, on the go, when they travel wherever they are and whenever they want to play. It should be the same software and the same experience."

This is the only part of the article that is relevant to the article's title. The rest is about Kojima's new game. Imagine that, a headline that sucks you in only to find out there's little to no content.

I kinda agree with Kojima. It would be nice if games were platform independent. I stopped computer gaming long, long ago when escalating hardware requirements left me in the dust. It's cheaper just to buy a console every few years than it is to upgrade my PC with every new software release. I used to be heavy into flight simulation--the cost of entry is high. Too high.

Re:Doubtful (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778040)

Count me in that group as well. I used to love PC gaming, but the enjoyment just isn't there anymore. Mainly it is the hardware / driver / tweaking issues and ridiculous DRM that killed it for me. Substandard ports from consoles were also a contributing factor. The controller doesn't compare to the tried and true keyboard + mouse combo, but aside from that it is just an overall better (and easier) experience on the console. I don't have to worry about hardware compatibility, limited installs, or rootkits; I plug it in and it just fucking works. At the current rate of bullshit, I don't think PC gaming is going to survive. If they can get their act together and undo the past 5 or 10 years of fucking PC gaming over then it might have a chance.

Re:Doubtful (5, Insightful)

Hatta (162192) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778612)

I used to love PC gaming, but the enjoyment just isn't there anymore. Mainly it is the hardware / driver / tweaking issues and ridiculous DRM that killed it for me.

Clearly you don't remember fiddling with config.sys for those last few K needed for the game you just bought. And then flipping through the manual looking for word 6 of paragraph 2 on page 12 so you could actually play it. If PC gaming can survive that, it'll survive this no problem.

Re:Doubtful (4, Insightful)

jedidiah (1196) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778802)

He probably does.

That sort of stuff is positively benign and quaint compared to the nonsense they pull today.

Re:Doubtful (3, Interesting)

binarylarry (1338699) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778668)

As a long time PC gamer, I'd say games are easier to play now than they ever were on the PC. Games tend to support the vast amount of hardware out there, even low end stuff. I haven't had a driver issue in a long time, you may want to upgrade to computer made after 2000. DRM can be an issue but it's only invasive on a small number of titles that I don't buy (they're usually console ports anyway).

And to me, the experience is dramatically better than a console (although I only play PS3 and Wii). You get more varieties of games, not just action and party games. Vastly better multiplayer, better graphics, more challenging types of games (from indies to AAA), etc.

PC gaming is awesome.

Re:Doubtful (2, Informative)

poetmatt (793785) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778490)

it helps to read. he's basically saying consoles aren't portable enough. So that means handhelds.

I wonder if the portable market is better than console. More competition in that area would certainly be nice though.

Gonna go out on a limb here (2, Interesting)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777820)

I know the guy is widely respected in gaming circles, but...is there anyone out there other than me that can't stand most of his gaming work?

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31777884)

MGS was good. Megaman is a classic. I don't like consoles.

The latter MGSs had horrid cutscenes.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here (2, Insightful)

HAKdragon (193605) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778424)

What does Megaman have to do with Kojima?

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here (1)

poetmatt (793785) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778532)

maybe he mixed up capcom on that. Anyway, Konami and Capcom have both made great games over the years. Plenty of flops too, but their great games are now definite cult classics.

Re:Gonna go out on a limb here (1)

Hatta (162192) | more than 4 years ago | (#31779032)

Have you played Snatcher [wikipedia.org] ?

It's true (1)

Xtravar (725372) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777870)

The console makers keep shooting themselves in the foot. I'm going to build a gaming HTPC soon. I can't buy both PSN and XBL content because I don't want to update my consoles and lose features, get banned, etc.

HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (0, Offtopic)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777996)

If you switch exclusively to HTPC gaming, what do you plan to do when friends come over, or when a relative drops kids off at your house? Apart from Sonic Kart [wikipedia.org] and turn-based games like Checkers and FreeCiv, there aren't many notable PC games that let you share a PC and monitor with other players holding gamepads. Instead of splitting the screen (like in a racing game) or sharing a single view (like in a fighting game), most major-label PC games appear to need a separate gaming PC and monitor for each player. Or can you recommend some good single-screen multiplayer games made for the PC so that HTPC gaming can get out of the chicken-and-egg situation it's in right now?

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (2, Funny)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778042)

If you switch exclusively to HTPC gaming, what do you plan to do when friends come over, or when a relative drops kids off at your house?

A - Have a party.
B - Sell them on the black market.

HTPC gaming at a party (-1, Offtopic)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778372)

A - Have a party.

That's one of the scenarios I was asking about. If you're having a party, and you're boycotting the consoles, what PC game do you load on the HTPC to play with your friends? Or by "party" did you mean "LAN party", which defeats the purpose of an HTPC?

Re:HTPC gaming at a party (1)

idontgno (624372) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778464)

Or by "party" did you mean "LAN party", which defeats the purpose of an HTPC?

"An" HTPC, perhaps. Multiple HTPCs, not so much. Since many multiplayer console games are still best played in multi-console LAN party mode. (Much less ass-hurt about "screen lookers", etc.)

Single-screen, single-console multiplayer console play is not something to be preserved as a valuable feature, but abolished as the crocky krufty wart it is.

Screen lookers (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778820)

"An" HTPC, perhaps. Multiple HTPCs, not so much.

Now everyone needs to bring a gaming PC, a monitor, and a copy of the same game to the party. I was talking about parties where the people are here for some other reason, such as to celebrate a birthday, and they get an itch to play a video game. Do you always make sure to bring your gaming PC whenever you visit someone else's house just in case someone wants to game? I was also talking about situations in which not all players own their own gaming PC, such as kids still in school.

Much less ass-hurt about "screen lookers",

Not all video game designs depend on hiding information from other players, and a single screen is not necessarily split. What advantage would "screen lookers" have in a game like Super Smash Bros.?

Re:Screen lookers (1)

idontgno (624372) | more than 4 years ago | (#31779014)

Now everyone needs to bring a gaming PC, a monitor, and a copy of the same game to the party.

Which is why the host provides all the PCs and displays.

Gaming is srs bzns; you gotta set it up RIGHT.

Not all video game designs depend on hiding information from other players,

But the good ones are. Sniper punkin' is much less fun if the target can see you zoom in on their ugly head. Ruins the surprise, ya know what I mean.

Besides, I think this discussion is veering widely away from any on-topic point. If one console is good enough, one HTPC is good enough. If one HTPC wouldn't be good enough, console wouldn't be either.

The only relevant wrinkle is that, for now, not all console games are on non-console platforms. Once consoles die their richly-deserved death, that will change (if the media publisher know what's good for 'em).

Re:HTPC gaming at a party (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778640)

If you're having a party, and you're boycotting the consoles, what PC game do you load on the HTPC to play with your friends?

You realize you can have a party without playing video games, don't you?

Re:HTPC gaming at a party (1)

eddy the lip (20794) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778670)

Psst: I think he meant a party with human interaction. Y'know, like in the old days.

Re:HTPC gaming at a party (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778726)

The point of a party video game, as opposed to an online video game, is to be a conversation piece around which humans can begin to interact by trash talking.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

bluesatin (1350681) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778050)

Both Left4Dead titles support split-screen with a little playing around in the config files, if I remember correctly.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778090)

Trine [wikipedia.org] supports same-screen multiplayer gaming on a PC...and it's AWESOME.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

Xtravar (725372) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778130)

Many big name titles already don't support split screen on the 360 or PS3, because they realized their market is in online gaming with really good graphics. The Wii just doesn't count in this discussion, but yes it still serves that niche you speak of.

I forayed into console gaming. Found it fun, easy, and enjoyable until Sony and Microsoft became complete asshats. Going back to the ol' PC.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (0)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778312)

The Wii just doesn't count in this discussion, but yes it still serves that niche you speak of.

I forayed into console gaming. Found it fun, easy, and enjoyable until Sony and Microsoft became complete asshats.

In some ways, Nintendo is as much of a donkeyhat as Sony, just less competent at it. At least Microsoft has XNA, a limited platform for indie game developers.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

HarrySquatter (1698416) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778318)

Many big name titles already don't support split screen on the 360 or PS3, because they realized their market is in online gaming with really good graphics.

Many? Really? I doubt you could even provide 30 examples of multiplayer games that don't have split screen.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

HarrySquatter (1698416) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778518)

I should alter my statement. By "multiplayer" I mean co-op. So please, list these "many big name titles" that have a co-op mode but don't let you do it split screen. And since there are 1300 games between the PS3 and Xbox combined you should have no problems coming up with numerous examples.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

Xtravar (725372) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778954)

Oh sure, first it's 30 titles, now it's "it has to also be co-op".

I don't have time for this nonsense. I'm sure you play some great split-screen games.

All I can tell you is that more often than not, I've encountered 360 games I had presumed would play locally and only play online. Games where you would either expect it from the series or genre, or where the Wii version has local multiplayer.

So the fact that I can't play the games that I **desire and expect** to be able to is more important than rambling off a list of B or C titles that I don't want to play! The trend is there, and I can only imagine it getting worse unless motion sensing controllers take off on the PS3/360.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

hal2814 (725639) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778222)

Street Fighter IV was pretty notable. I prefer the PC version because I can use my hacked together arcade-quality USB joystick with it. It annoys me when I play tournaments using a stupid 360 or PS3 gamepad. Charge players like Blanka and Balrog just aren't the same. Which brings up MAME and emulators in general. Oh, and Madden has been multi-player single screen for a long time now for the PC (at least 10 years). The only was your statement really holds is if by "notable" you mean "FPS." And no, there are no PC FPSes I'm aware of that do split screen multiplayer gaming.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778522)

Which brings up MAME and emulators in general.

I made a point to mention PC games because most emulated ROMs are not cleared for Internet distribution. So I'll pretend you said "Midway Arcade Treasures and Namco Museum" instead, in which case I sort of agree.

Oh, and Madden has been multi-player single screen for a long time now for the PC (at least 10 years).

Madden NFL 09 and Madden NFL 10 have no PC version.

The only was your statement really holds is if by "notable" you mean "FPS."

I'm assembling a list of HTPC party games and am looking for viable alternatives to console party games such as Bomberman, Smash Bros., Mario Party, and the like. Can you think of any more good ones?

And no, there are no PC FPSes I'm aware of that do split screen multiplayer gaming.

For co-op there are Serious Sam and L4D.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

Pinky's Brain (1158667) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778534)

There's always MAME.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778860)

I made a point to mention PC games because MAME comes without ROMs, and at $150,000 each [copyright.gov] , I'll pass.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

MBGMorden (803437) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778546)

When you look at the rise of online multiplayer, I think the style of gaming you describe is already dying out - even on consoles. When people play with multiple people, they tend to play online, with their own equipment. I'm sure at least 3 or 4 people will chime in with "BUT I STILL HAVE FRIENDS OVER TO PLAY!!!", and that's fine, but it's not a question of whether or not such a thing EVER happens, but rather if it's a situation common enough for the market to keep catering to it. If we're not past that point already, we're fast approaching it.

Besides - I can play video games all the time - with our without other players, when I want to kill time. Why would I waste face-time with my friends pulling out video games?

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

Xiph1980 (944189) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778638)

You do know that it actually is possible to have fun without a computer on at all? Especially with friends over, you just have a party. And kids, even nowadays are easy to entertain by giving them (depending on the age ofcourse) a stack of paper and some crayons. I don't even own a game console, and *gasp* still get on pretty well, and parties really aren't boring orso. Infact, my experience is that parties without game consoles are more fun than parties with.

Between the crayons and gossip stages (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778942)

And kids, even nowadays are easy to entertain by giving them (depending on the age ofcourse) a stack of paper and some crayons.

My family's annual reunion tends to self-segregate into three areas: the table with the crayons and the modeling dough, the table with the video games, and the rest of the hall where the dominant activity is random gossip about friends of the family that others will probably never meet. I'm in charge of the video games, and I'm trying to prove that it's possible to replace the Wii with a PC, even among people between the crayons stage and the gossip stage.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (2, Informative)

BobNET (119675) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778788)

can you recommend some good single-screen multiplayer games made for the PC

Scorched Earth.

Re:HTPC gaming chicken-and-egg (1)

spire3661 (1038968) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778918)

Street fighter 4 is a great PC multiplayer game.

Re:It's true (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778636)

Perhaps you might want to read about PC gaming and DRM? It makes the tech news at least twice a month as something falls foul of the latest scheme to prevent you from playing a game you've purchased. Oh, I see, you want to run the superior pirate versions.

Ulcer (1)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777878)

There must be some hundreds of people who've felt the hit of those declarations.

I can only imagine how I'd roll with such a punch... "This will be the year of Linux on the desktop" - Bill Gates... Unngh.

Re:Ulcer (1)

rolfwind (528248) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778118)

I can only imagine how I'd roll with such a punch... "This will be the year of Linux on the desktop" - Bill Gates... Unngh.

Bill Gates also predicted in the early '00s that in 5-6 years everyone would have a tablet PC.

The thing is, even people famous in the fields they are farseeing are often wrong. Now, Bill Gates predicting that for Linux may be a short term propaganda coup for Linux (or a trap when it doesn't turn true) and it's nice to hear them share their vision of things but reality is a different beast.

I respect Kojima, and I'd pay 10x as much attention if Miyamoto said it, but it's better to apply critical thinking rather than have it become a self-fulfilling prophecy by virtue of edict.

He predicts the console will be replaced... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31777894)

...by Sun's Java-based diskless network computers.

Not so certain... (3, Interesting)

Drakkenmensch (1255800) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777896)

Many people have predicted the move toward either One Single Console To Rule Them All, or in this case none at all. The problem with this sort of prediction is that it does not account for the profitability of such systems. As long as money CAN be made by putting out a console, someone will. And as long as someone does, others will want a share of that pie, thus competition. It's the reason why Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo could fold eventually and still we'd end up with a multiple console market competition.

Re:Not so certain... (2, Interesting)

99BottlesOfBeerInMyF (813746) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778342)

Many people have predicted the move toward either One Single Console To Rule Them All, or in this case none at all. The problem with this sort of prediction is that it does not account for the profitability of such systems.

Actually, I believe it does to some extent. Right now, most console makers profit primarily upon game licensing revenue. Nintendo makes some money on the hardware as well. So what happens when a company decides to undercut the existing players and just sell the hardware at a profit, while making game licensing as cheap as possible. We're looking at an iPhone store model here, where developers pay next to nothing and the hardware maker is content to profit on their own apps and the hardware profit. It's the profitability of the current model that will keep existing players from adapting fast enough, opening the way for the "one true console" maker to gain enough momentum to dominate the market. Once established, such dominance is hard to shake.

I'm actually surprised none of the major TV makers have gone this route, providing a built in console for little added cost, perhaps even opening up the spec to competitors, just as a way to get a head start and grab some more market share. Apple is certainly considering such a market, although they might have too much going right now to do it.

Re:Not so certain... (1)

Nerdfest (867930) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778348)

Perhaps the major game studios should get together a build a console. It's actually surprising it hasn't happened .. as a group, they certainly have the money these days. I'm not sure it would be a good thing ...

Re:Not so certain... (1)

phantomfive (622387) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778384)

Yeah, this seems like the frustration of a person who has just gone through the difficulty of porting over various platforms. I've had similar thoughts after trying to make J2ME work in different phones, and going crazy with the various incompatibilities. I'll bet he had a lot more trouble porting the metal gear solid platform to PSP than he expected.

Seriously, at one point my coworker said, "This is crazy, I want to finish this and get a job doing web programming where there are no incompatibilities." I said, "what about the browsers?" He said, "Yeah, there are only three of them!" and I had to confess he had a point.

Re:Not so certain... (0, Troll)

Monkeedude1212 (1560403) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778456)

Thats the problem though, Microsoft has found that their entertainment industry is a bit of a money pit. Maybe not as bad as some people make it sound, but its not nearly as profitable as Office or Windows. Every X-box sold means they are losing money (the cost of producing one is more than the cost they sell it at, or the margins are so thin they don't make enough to justify shipping it out). They try to make more money in licensing for games, but more and more people are going "I don't want to pay $70 for a new game, I'll wait for it to go down to $30 used" - and so game sales are down.

If you lived in Canada, they had 1 vs 100 on Xbox live as a way to get people to buy XboxLive Gold subscriptions. I remember the calender for shows going at least till July, and some for even the christmas season this year. It appears to have been pulled, or post-poned. It's no longer active, and the only reason I can think why is that the cost of running it didn't bring in enough subscribers. And no one wanted to pay for advertising, which is why they had the same 4 ads played over and over.

Point is, games are where the money is at. You sell the console for petty sums and make it all up in game licensing. If you pay Microsoft to allow your game on the 360, that means the price of the game goes up, which means less sales, which means less profit for both you and MS. Microsoft has tried to counter this by buying up other game dev companies, or working in a coexisting sense. However, Microsoft has a knack for pissing developers right off. Remember Bungie? There's a reason why they left the agreement they had with MS, they didn't like working under them. And how many game companies can you name that were bought by MS that have either dissolved or turned into suck? I can think of one for every finger, at least.

I don't know what its like exactly at Sony or Nintendo, but it can't be too different. Nintendo has at least branched out to the casual gaming crowd and will easily keep afloat so long as they do what they've been doing. Sony has the benefit of Blu Ray winning the format war, so if you're thinking of a Blu Ray Player, the only reason not to buy one is the price, which when you consider its a gaming console as well (if you like gaming) then its a solid investment. So - if the trend continues, yeah, Microsoft will either have to change its ways, or it'll end up cutting the whole console business out of its strategy. Because right now, they aren't doing so hot.

Re:Not so certain... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778530)

Er, there's a categorical difference between one console and zero consoles. Your argument only works as an argument against one console. Zero consoles obviously implies that there is no market.

Re:Not so certain... (1)

stewbacca (1033764) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778926)

One Single Console to Rule them All...isn't that a PC? I mean, isn't that the argument FOR PCs and against Macs in every PC vs. Mac thread ever?

Heavy Metal Solid Gear? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31777904)

Heavy Metal Solid Gear? ROFL... Should be Metal Gear Solid ;)

procrastination (1)

tilminator (970595) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777920)

Procrastination drives much of my own gaming, and I think this holds for a large share of people. The closer a game comes to my "legit" computer usage, the more likely I will pick it up. So yes, game consoles do not stand a chance with me.

Re:procrastination (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778444)

So true.

Dying? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31777934)

Is this related to that "other os" thing dying...? ;-)

Heavy Metal Solid Gear? (5, Informative)

Syberz (1170343) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777954)

The game's name is Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker. Heavy Metal is a totally different series.

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear? (3, Insightful)

lowlymarine (1172723) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778080)

That's far from the only error in the summary. My suspicion is that it was written just to infuriate those of us who have OCD about proper grammar and sentence structure. EG:

Konami founder and developer Hideo Kojima predicts gaming console is a dying breed. Anticipates gaming on demand via Internet.

The flow of that is positively dreadful.

Re:Heavy Metal Solid Gear? (2, Funny)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778188)

I find the lack of commas alarming. William Shatner could never read that if it was in a script.

I trust you not (1)

Neuroticwhine (1024687) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777962)

While i love seeing these predictions from time to time... i actually played his last game and realized that whoever wrote it must have been completely bat shit crazy. I wouldnt trust the guy to wipe my ass, much less predict the future of gaming. Imo of course.

Java? Internet? iPad? Magic? (0, Redundant)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777972)

"In the near future, we'll have games that don't depend on any platform," Kojima said

Kojima makes his prediction as he designed a follow-up game called Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, scheduled for a late April launch. His development company, Konami Corp. has partnered with Sony and the portable PSP device.

What magic codebase or architecture is he talking about? Surely it isn't Java ... and internet based gaming isn't reliable for those without great broadband ... and the iPad will be OK for casual games but not a 'console quality' gaming experience. Is he talking about a handheld device (aka PSP?) that plugs into your TV, then hits the road with you?

Re:Java? Internet? iPad? Magic? (1)

DunbarTheInept (764) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778790)

I am 100% convinced that every game will depend on a platform. Nobody's going to be writing self contained all-in-one games where the game embeds the whole platform (what, is this 1975, with embedded "pong" consoles.?)

You will need something to run it on.

What he probably meant to say was "don't depend on any particular specific platform."

Mutually Exclusive? I think not (2, Insightful)

tsj5j (1159013) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777984)

Consoles are merely a platform whereas the internet is a medium. I can easily imagine a future (or even partially present) where internet speeds make it viable for optical media to be obsolete, and hence allowing for games to easily and confidently implement online multiplayer components without alienating their player base that suffers from poor connections. (though it might be a sad one with DRM).

Depends what type of gaming (5, Insightful)

rolfwind (528248) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777992)

For casual gaming, yes and this has already happened to a degree with smartphones.

But for hardcore or graphics intensive games, I don't see anything beyond PCs or consoles. Heck, the trend is so much towards consoles, this generation we have 3 of them with respectable size audiences. Six, if you count the DS, PSP, and PS2 (because it's still selling). Back in the original NES days, there was one winner and the rest were afterthoughts.

Years ago, things like the Wii Controller would only differentiate the systems if it came standard with the console, but really dedicated hardware like the Balance Board would never have taken off (power glove, super scope, etc anyone?) and after the initial game very few others would follow because the install base just wasn't there. Now even more dedicated hardware than the console/controller itself is taking off.

I just don't see platform agnostic gaming being feasible in the near-future. It's usually the attention to detail and tailored package that makes the experience and sale.

They're killing themselves. (0)

girlintraining (1395911) | more than 4 years ago | (#31777998)

Console makers are intent on depriving their customers of features that are easy to impliment, useful, and are value-added. Why? Because the content providers don't want that functionality available (DRM). As a result, computers become more versatile every year, while consoles become increasingly limited to single applications. In an era where information complexity is increasing exponentially, and we demand more for less every year, these two trends push the demand curve for consoles down.

Solution: Make consoles more useful and flexible.

What they're going to do instead: Dig themselves in a deep hole trying to serve the content providers instead of the customers. Eventually all three -- the content provider, the console manufacturer, and the customer, will become sick of the dichotomy and stop buying consoles.

Re:They're killing themselves. (2, Interesting)

geekoid (135745) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778046)

So your solution is to make console more PC like?

heh.

Re:They're killing themselves. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778210)

Well consoles have been running PC hardware for years now. They *are* PCs already, just slightly specialized and highly restrictive.

last console I played (and still do from time to time) is NES, and occasionally the Atari 2600. New consoles don't make any sense to me, I already have a computer that can run higher FPS and do more.

Re:They're killing themselves. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778220)

In my day a PC would do anything you told it to do. I think this is still the case. I don't know how things staying the same is becoming "more versatile"

Also in my day a console would do only one thing, play games built for the system. I never heard anyone talking about installing linux on a NES. Recently console makers have experimented with making consoles more flexible I don't know enough to say if the experiment was beneficial to them but I'd guess no since they are RETURNING to the status quo of completely locked down instead of moving to a more open environment. I'd like to blame the people who take a look at the flexibility provided and then say "But it's not enough!" and force the console open more than the console makers are willing to risk. When you ask your mom for money and when she gives you $1 you don't say "But that's not enough" and take her whole purse.

Re:They're killing themselves. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778236)

There is some merit in your argument, but at the end of the day a console is not a computer and most people are willing to accept that; otherwise you will end up bolting things on until you arrive back at a computer. I find it strange that you bring up DRM on consoles when it is drastically worse on PCs; in fact, it is one of the main contributing factors many people (including myself) cite in their decision to ditch the PC for the console.

Re:They're killing themselves. (1)

jedidiah (1196) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778952)

The DRM is no less problematic on a console. It just doesn't get in the
way so much. The consoles are already walled gardens. They don't so much
need to f*ck with your general purpose machine in some vain effort to
prevent you from pirating their game. The console being crippled already
seems to solve most of the "problem".

DRM on a console will probably yield a more convenient result than trying
to do the same on a PC.

"Gigabytes on disk + needing disk in CD drive" always bugged the h*ll out of me on PC games.

Put it on the HD, or leave it on the optical disk. Don't pollute my system
and then make me dig out physical media every time I want to play something.
If I want 2600-esque physical media experience then I can just use a console.

Re:They're killing themselves. (1)

HarrySquatter (1698416) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778392)

As a result, computers become more versatile every year, while consoles become increasingly limited to single applications.

And at the same time console and console game sales keep growing every year with sales that are eclipsing the PC version of a game by sometimes more than a magnitude. You tend to overestimate how much DRM and the locked-down nature of a console matters to most people. That is, it's a non-issue.

Consoles, VMs and the Internet (3, Interesting)

NonSenseAgency (1759800) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778034)

The console itself may not be dead, but will just become one more internet "appliance", doing precisely what Konami says, accessing the net on demand to play the users game of choice. With VMs becoming more and more prevalent it is only a matter of time before they start to appear on consoles. It would not be very hard to do it now in fact. So a console could run a VM to appear to be any machine....or a PC could run VM to appear to be a console, hmmmm.

Re:Consoles, VMs and the Internet (1)

DunbarTheInept (764) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778892)

VM's introduce a huge slowdown unless they're able to use the hardware natively because the emulated machine is hardware-compatible with the host machine. So, the reason VMware works so well is that it emulates intel machines... on intel machines. If it had to emulate a different CPU, it would be quite a bit slower than the native hardware.

VM's are good for backward-compatibility with previous generation machines, where you can accept the slowdown of a VM because the new machine is faster than the emulated one. But as a way to compete with a competitor's machine of the same generation, both cutting edge, it won't be fast enough unless everyone's using the same hardware architecture under the hood.

Pfft (1)

Quiet_Desperation (858215) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778066)

I haven't listened to anything that guy says since having to bleach my eyes after naked Raiden.

Now if he announced a web game where Snake invades Farmville with giant mechs I might take notice.

It'll happen at some point (2, Insightful)

aztektum (170569) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778072)

With services being integrated into TVs and being able to get home theaters streaming from a file server, I don't doubt a dedicated console will disappear from living rooms. The games will still be there, but they will be loaded on your server/computer and allow you stream them to whatever room you're in. Sort of like a localized OnLive.

Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will try to keep you locked into their platform, but that will only last a generation or so longer. I can see Steam becoming even bigger and integrating the streaming play, locking others in a different room out while you're logged into your account (unless they have an account of their own).

THIS IS A SONY PR MOVE, NOTHING MORE (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778116)

Guys, this has nothing to do with MGS or Kojima - Sony wants desperately to get away from physical media, this is a PR move using a respected designer to push Sony's agenda.

That's why they patched the PS3, made the hideous PSP GO which doesn't support physical media, etc...

These types of articles ... (1)

jsnipy (913480) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778136)

These guesses at the future state of things are no more insightful than someone saying "FIRST POST".

He's right though... (4, Funny)

yurtinus (1590157) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778158)

It will come right after the year of Linux on the desktop.

Re:He's right though... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778466)

Sure! It's the "other os" that died right?

Re:He's right though... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778596)

And, unfortunately, right before Duke Nukem Forever is released for all consoles.

Engrish in summary (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778286)

Gaming console is dying breed! Han han han!

I hope not (1)

Kyru (836008) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778332)

I can think of worse things to happen to gaming, but not many. Until the Internet is as reliable and widespread as electricity there isn't much chance of this happening and working.

Yes, and in 2015 we'll have flying cars. (2, Interesting)

Ordonator (1539087) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778362)

The big theme at GDC this year was social platforms, with the evangelists insisting that hardcore gaming is going away forever within 5 years. 5 years ago, these same guys were using absolutes to describe the total decline of PC gaming. Nobody said a word about Facebook. The only prediction worth putting stock into is that the future will continue to become more unpredictable.

Reverse (4, Insightful)

wisnoskij (1206448) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778428)

Was it not just a week or 2 ago that someone else said that the end of computer gaming was coming soon, and consoles would reign supreme?

10 types of people (1)

TheSHAD0W (258774) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778480)

"There are 10 types of people... Those who understand binary, and those who do not."

Seriously, there are two kinds of spendy gamers out there. There are the non-technical types, who will go out there and buy a console, buy a bunch of games, buy new controllers... They have no desire for a true PC, don't want a desk to put the keyboard and mouse on, just want a little machine in their entertainment center.

Then there are the technical types, who want to upgrade their video card, processor, boot off a SSD... They want to be able to push the edge, and may get as much fun out of tinkering as they do from the gaming.

IMO *both* markets are worth pursuing, even if they diverge. Don't shove everything into one niche.

At least gaming on PCs will have company (1)

dsmoses (653429) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778520)

Since the future of PC Gaming [slashdot.org] is in doubt as well, at least they will have plenty of company. I guess that leaves Facebook games FTW.

Re:At least gaming on PCs will have company (1)

Dunbal (464142) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778846)

What I think is really happening is that game devs are notoriously incapable of programming any challenging sort of AI for their games - resulting in people turning to multiplayer games for a challenge. Easier to give up than just convince the project leads to use a few less cpu cycles for eye candy and a few more cycles for better algorithms.

Of course there will always be demand for single player games because frankly the "lol lol lol I pwnz joo n00b!!11" gets old fast, as does the bunch of people incapable of actually completing a game and dropping out halfway through.

WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ??? (1)

Weezul (52464) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778524)

iPhone, iTouch, and iPad are information appliances with an incredibly well designed App Store, yes. As they are touch screen based, they are not particularly useful for business users that might need to write polite emails. So who uses them? We'll people browse the web and use web site apps, but the apps not oriented towards media consumption are GAMES !!!

I don't see why game consoles cannot have application stores that are every bit as successful as the iTunes Store, perhaps games requiring more storage will require different content models, like a cheap social initial game with costly running add-ons ala farmville, but the locked down hardware and distribution model historically occupied by consoles has actually expanded, not retracted.

Re:WRONG : What are the iPhone and iPad ??? (1)

jedidiah (1196) | more than 4 years ago | (#31779026)

The console vendors don't need to be megalomaniacal about distribution. The old model already
works pretty well for them. They simply don't have any need to lock you in like that. They can
do quite well with there being n+1 vendors out there where I can get a bit of media from to
play a game with.

The same goes for most stuff actually.

If Big Content weren't so paranoid about piracy, Apple would be moot.

Game content (1)

Neil Watson (60859) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778796)

Doesn't the success of a platform be it console, PC or Internet live and die by the quality of the game? Would any of the big three consoles be big if there were no quality games? I don't think most people care what the game plays on so long as it meets their entertainment expectations.

Is called the PC. (1)

Tei (520358) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778840)

The PC is the Unique Gamming Platform.

The problem is that people like Sony and Microsoft are soo greedy, that want to control *everything* you say and do. Do you want to use a name with the letters "gay"? banned till 9/9/9999.

All these people (MS, Sony...) want to work in the "Bridge Tol" bussines. Just getting a piece for everything that moves in "his" hardware. Parasiting the work of others.

PSP is not the same thing... (2, Interesting)

stewbacca (1033764) | more than 4 years ago | (#31778876)

Why do people keep insisting that PSP and iPhone games will supplant full-blown console games? They aren't even the same thing, to start with. I mean, unless I can hook up my wheel and pedals to my iPhone, then hook it up to a large screen display and into my surround sound, this is like saying the Sony Walkman will replace live concert audio systems.

End of All Gaming?! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778930)

This reminds me of when everyone was predicting the end of PC gaming a few years ago. If PC and Console gaming both ended, we'd be left without gaming, highly doubtful.

I thank you for y00r time (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#31778934)

said. 'Scre4ming Theo de Raadt, one
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