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iPad Isn't "Killing" Netbook Sales, According To Paul Thurrott

timothy posted more than 4 years ago | from the only-a-flesh-wound dept.

Businesses 457

mantis2009 writes "Paul Thurrott, the prolific technology analyst and Windows expert, reacts strongly to an article highlighted on Slashdot. Thurrott takes numbers from IDC and the Wall Street Journal, indicating that netbook sales have not in any meaningful way been affected by sales of Apple's tablet computer, the iPad. Money quote: '[N]etbooks and sub-12-inch machines will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.'"

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Of course... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141804)

Paul Thurrott would say that.

Re:Of course... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141846)

Yes, because it's absolutely true. Paul Thurrott is never wrong. Truly an American icon, and loved by all Slashdotters.

On the other hand... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141984)

Netcraft has confirmed that BSD on netbooks is dying...

Re:On the other hand... (1)

AndGodSed (968378) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142074)

I for one welcome our new netbook killing overlords.

Re:Of course... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142102)

the ipad is not supposed to kill sales by all means, just to increase them

Watch the messenger (4, Interesting)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141810)

We should note that Paul here has both a vested interest in dogging on the ipad and a long history of making hyperbolic statements about how the iPad can't or won't succeed. Also, the original graph clearly showed the growth rate changing, a flow variable, not the number of units, the stock. If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover? What manufacturer will net into a market where the rate of growth is much less than it was even 6 months ago.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Interesting)

budfields (1663047) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141836)

Paul is also ignoring key issues, saying that 'he doubts' things instead of citing any data whatsoever, and tossing out a lot of vested-interest PC geek magazine predictions as if they are fact.

Par for the course from someone whose wallet size is correlated with the performance of the PC market.

Re:Watch the messenger (5, Insightful)

Threni (635302) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141908)

To be fair, though, the idea that sales were affected was based on asking people what they were going to buy, not what they already bought. People talk a lot of crap. So it's best to ignore what they say and concentrate on what they do. Not many people are going to not buy a netbook because of an iPad, because they satisfy different markets. Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go. iPads are great for..well...uh..say you wanted an expensive, easy to scratch laptop but wanted to have to hold it awkwardly all the time you were using it, didn't want to actually type anything on it etc. They're great for that, I guess.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Insightful)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141954)

That's just as much conjecture as sales projections through interviews. I have only your analysis (which doesn't seem at all derived from a distaste of one product) to guide me in determining if netbooks and tablets are satisfying different markets. What if they do serve different roles but the act of purchasing one or the other is a revelatory moment about value of the "other" computer? If I buy an ipad maybe I'll discover I don't need a netbook and vice versa. We need to wait six months or so to get a real feel for the demand on ipads, but I wouldn't be surprised that a decent segment of the population only buys one.

Re:Watch the messenger (5, Informative)

AmigaMMC (1103025) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141960)

I have little use for an iPad, but I just bought less than a month ago a Netbook (Asus Eee PC 1005PCB) and totally love it. It's powerful enough to play all those lame Facebook Flash games, LOL, and actually plays all DivX video without a glitch, something my other crappy HP laptop with 2X core can't do. Battery lasts about 11 hours with normal use and about 7-8 hours watching video. I tried typing on an iPad and couldn't stand it, but I do travel writing and blogging and I don't have a problem typing on my Netbook.

So, as far as I'm concerned Netbooks are alive and well.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142004)

Great. I have little use for a netbook. So....netbook sales are dropping? Anecdata doesn't cut it.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

uglyduckling (103926) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142598)

Thanks for enlightening us with your study, sample size n=1.

Re:Watch the messenger (3, Insightful)

beelsebob (529313) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142048)

Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.

Correct.

iPads are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.
Sounds pretty accurate too.

Re:Watch the messenger (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142096)

Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.

Correct.

iPads are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.
Sounds pretty accurate too.

And pay double the price for doing it. No reasonable person would assert that a $500-$800 Ipad is competing against a $300 netbook. At that price it is competing against laptops. If anything I would expect sales of the low end Macbook to be cannibalized by this thing.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

aristotle-dude (626586) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142432)

Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.

Correct.

iPads are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go. Sounds pretty accurate too.

And pay double the price for doing it. No reasonable person would assert that a $500-$800 Ipad is competing against a $300 netbook. At that price it is competing against laptops. If anything I would expect sales of the low end Macbook to be cannibalized by this thing.

The problem with the netbook is that it does nothing well. It cannot playback even 720p video properly from the web and you can forget about games.

With an iPad, you can not only do what netbooks can do but you also can download applications specifically tuned to the iPad for multitouch and within the processor and gfx chip limits giving you a better gaming experience than you could get with a netbook running games designed for a more powerful PC.

Re:Watch the messenger (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142550)

Lmao what an idiot. Gaming on an iPad? Sure, I guess if you want to play a turn based version of Pong. You can make netbooks touch by spending a few bucks and installing a touch screen (which if your too stupid to do you can no doubt find someone to do it for $20).

iPad is a fucking joke. If it was more realistic, it would be great.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142768)

I can think of other systems I can download applications for that are specifically tuned for them ps/3, xbox many phones, commodore 64, vic 20, PET colecovison. look it is a cool device and it looks like it is good for email/web, I had my hands on one yesterday Civ looks err interesting but seems to work, simcity seems to work ok, but really? gaming? be real, you think maybe halo or call of duty are great here?

but what do I know my favorite in the universe is Ascendancy

Re:Watch the messenger (1, Insightful)

Alien1024 (1742918) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142238)

Expect an iPad is not a "small pc", not even by the "I-am-a-Mac(not-a-PC)" standard set by those ridiculous Apple Ads. I don't consider a machine a PC (Personal Computer) if I don't really own it, i.e. if I am not able to legally install whatever software I want to and use its computing abilities to its fullest just because their manufacturer decided to intentionally cripple it.

Re:Watch the messenger (-1, Troll)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142334)

Expect an iPad is not a "small pc", not even by the "I-am-a-Mac(not-a-PC)" standard set by those ridiculous Apple Ads. I don't consider a machine a PC (Personal Computer) if I don't really own it, i.e. if I am not able to legally install whatever software I want to and use its computing abilities to its fullest just because their manufacturer decided to intentionally cripple it.

So?

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

Alien1024 (1742918) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142414)

So nothing. I wish you lots of joy with your iPad if you got/are planning to get one. I just don't think a sentence like iPads are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag makes sense.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

TiberiusMonkey (1603977) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142310)

I agree, but without bashing the iPad, which likely does the few things it does, very very well, (I like a number of Apple products and have owned my share) I can also install Linux as well as Windows on my Netbook and code with it, as well as many other things that the iPad can't do. The cherry on the cake is the price, my netbook cost me £160 (it would have been more but I managed to get a good deal on eBay) and an iPad would cost me over £500 (more if I want to be able to use 3G, which I can already do when I tether my Blackberry to my 1005ha). In fact, even instant on doesn't seem THAT great when Windows 7 comes out of sleep very very fast on my netbook.

Re:Watch the messenger (0, Flamebait)

jedidiah (1196) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142728)

...except the iPad doesn't have a real keyboard, has crap multimedia format support and a crap web browser with no plugin or extension support.

It's like using a 1994 Linux machine with a membrane keyboard.

Re:Watch the messenger (4, Insightful)

obarthelemy (160321) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142132)

I for one will buy either a Tablet or a Netbook. Not an iPad though, a true Tablet, with LAN access to my files, Tethering, SD card, USB ports and video out. I'm holding out for all those Tablet pre-announcements, to see if one actually pans out.

Re:Watch the messenger (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142496)

Oh, a "true Tablet." Yeah, you wouldn't want an iPad then.

Re:Watch the messenger (1, Redundant)

aristotle-dude (626586) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142542)

I for one will buy either a Tablet or a Netbook. Not an iPad though, a true Tablet, with LAN access to my files, Tethering, SD card, USB ports and video out. I'm holding out for all those Tablet pre-announcements, to see if one actually pans out.

Have you seriously ask you this. Do you already have a PC of some sort? If so, why would you want to spend any amount of money to run the same types of applications as you main machine only significantly slower than a laptop? With an iPad, you can have access to your files on the LAN through different third party apps, SD card access with the adapter, A USB port with the adapter and video out with a cable. The only think you will not get is tether although many carriers are offering plans to share smartphone data plans with the iPad.

I used a composite video + stereo L+R cable with my iPhone when I was in Tokyo in my hotel room and I also have a component out cable at home. The iPad has the added capability to output to VGA as well.

Unlike a netbook, you are not struggling to run applications meant for a faster PC on an underpowered device but rather applications specifically written the iPad. Games will run at full speed rather than slowly or not at all like a PC game would on a netbook.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Interesting)

sopssa (1498795) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141926)

Well, do you honestly think that iPad will sell 40 millions units a year and keep it up? I don't. Besides, iPad has been out over a month now and is still only at 1 million units, and half of those are preorders. If iPad would be killing netbooks sales, it has some catching up to do.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

BasilBrush (643681) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142000)

1) Since when is 1 million of a new tech product sold in the first month described as "only"? Thats half a $billon in sales for a single product for a month. That's no rational person's notion of "only".

2) For that month, the 3G iPads were not on sale;the sales were constrained by supply; and the only country the iPad was so far on sale in was the USA.

40 million per year, of all iPad models WORLDWIDE? No problem. It'll sell far more than that.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Insightful)

masdog (794316) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142242)

I doubt it. The tablet market is going to become a very crowded space very shortly with several potential competitors who have been developing their products for much longer than Apple has.

While the iPad won't fail, it won't enjoy the same long-term success the iPhone has had.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142672)

sure it will, its an iPhone for the visually impaired!

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Interesting)

beelsebob (529313) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142070)

Well, do you honestly think that iPad will sell 40 millions units a year and keep it up? I don't. Besides, iPad has been out over a month now and is still only at 1 million units

So that's 12 million a year at that rate? Even if you account for preorders, that's probably 6 million a year. Given that the second iPhone sold literally 10 times faster than the first one, I'd be getting pretty worried as a netbook vendor.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

zonker (1158) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141860)

Mod this guy up!

For better or worse, Paul is to Wintel as Gruber is to Apple.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Insightful)

toppavak (943659) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141922)

If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover?

I believe most people would refer to that as market saturation. There is a finite number of people needing to purchase a new computer in a given period of time and the explosive growth of netbooks could very well be slowing now that a large percentage of everyone who wants to buy one has. Still, I think the entire debate is baseless because the two products (iPad and netbook) serve very different purposes. The iPad is best suited to enable the consumption of media (movies, music, web, ebooks, etc) whereas netbooks are most often used as simply small, inexpensive notebooks. Every person I know who owns a netbook uses it for work computing- Office, presentations, e-mail, scientific computing, I even use my old Eee 900 for editing and managing photos when I travel.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141974)

Yeah, market saturation is at work here, but I don't think the contemporaneous nature should be overlooked. I suspect there are different spheres of customers. Some for whom a netbook is not replaceable by an ipad and some for whom an ipad offers an easy substitute. I think a case can be made that two things happened. First, the introduction of the ipad offered that substitute to our second group. Second, the growth of the ipad sucked out the oxygen in the netbook world, pushing manufacturers toward tablet devices.

It's too soon to tell (1)

symbolset (646467) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142332)

It' too soon to tell if iPad will crush other products. Since the thing isn't really launched worldwide yet, and the 3G versions were just released and supply is already constrained it's easy to see that the thing is a commercial success. We won't know what demand truly is until it's launched worldwide and supply catches up with it.

How well the Android slates deliver will show the iPad's place in the category it defined, so perhaps by Christmas. I wonder if there will be Moorestown units out by then, and Windows Mobile 7. Probably not with enough scale or buzz to get their peak markets rolling.

What a lot of people seem to be missing is that like the iPod and iPhone the sale doesn't end when you open the box - What His Jobsness has sold you is a store you can carry in your pocket so that you can buy books, music, movies and apps from him any time you so desire. And unlike Best Buy and BlockBuster and Borders, the store never closes - ever. It's right there in your pocket ready to close a deal whenever you are.

Re:It's too soon to tell (1)

Bing Tsher E (943915) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142770)

What His Jobsness has sold you is a store you can carry in your pocket so that you can buy books, music, movies and apps

Uh, I don't have a great big pocket up front on my belly like a kangaroo, nor do I often wear bib overalls. So the iPad doesn't fit in that respect either.

But those are what an iPad is for as well... (2, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142396)

The iPad is best suited to enable the consumption of media (movies, music, web, ebooks, etc) whereas netbooks are most often used as simply small, inexpensive notebooks. Every person I know who owns a netbook uses it for work computing- Office, presentations, e-mail, scientific computing, I even use my old Eee 900 for editing and managing photos when I travel.

Currently the iPad is better suited to consumption.

But that's a software issue... all of the things you mention - presentations, editing documents, email, photo editing - those already work pretty well on an iPad, and in fact photo editing/review that you do on the road can be a lot better done with an iPad unless you are a heavy photoshop user. Over time, we'll see even better software to meet those needs.

I can actually type really fast using the onscreen keypad, but if you were replacing a small travel laptop many people could easily include a small bluetooth keyboard, like the kinds they have made for years now for other mobile devices. You wouldn't need to use it all the time but for more serious editing in a hotel room it might be nicer.

I say this all not to say if the iPad will or will not supplant netbooks, just to note that if you think of it as only a consumption device you are missing out on a lot of what it can do, and do well.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

tagno25 (1518033) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141924)

you would have to have a negative growth rate to indicate that netbooks are loosing market share

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Insightful)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141996)

Nope. Just have to have a growth rate smaller than the expansion of the market. For a very crude analogy, take the employment ratio in the united states (you can find it at bls.gov). The employment ratio can fall even if the economy doesn't shed jobs, because people are instantly entering the labor market. If job growth doesn't keep up with labor force grow, the employment ratio falls.

Re:Watch the messenger (5, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142218)

How the hell did this get modded up? Are the mods all math-ignorant retards or what? If growth of my product's sales is 5% year-on-year, I am still losing market share if growth of the entire market is 25% because of the exceptionally high sales of my competitors. You don't need negative growth to lose market share.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

dnaumov (453672) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142438)

you would have to have a negative growth rate to indicate that netbooks are loosing market share

Market share is not what you think it is.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

tagno25 (1518033) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142512)

you would have to have a negative growth rate to indicate that netbooks are loosing market share

Market share is not what you think it is.

Sorry, did not mean "market share" meant "sales"

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141998)

netbooks will continue to sell because you can install and program what you want on them. this is good for business type people who don't have to wait for apple to approve new functionality.

Re:Watch the facts (1)

xigxag (167441) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142024)

Not to say that there aren't going to be SOME people who decide to buy an iPad over a netbook (just like there are going to be some people who decide to buy a Livescribe smartpen over a netbook) but the graph of prospective "iPad cannibalization" shows that by far the iPad is more likely to "kill" sales of Apple's own notebook/iPod numbers. In any event, the fallacy in all of this killing talk is in assuming that every iPad sale must come at the expense of some other electronic tool that would've been bought. I know many people who are interested in an iPad who would have never bought a netbook in any case. And vice-versa, by the way.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142050)

The original article claiming that the iPad was stealing sales from netbooks was bunk anyways. Sales growth for netbooks was slowing before the iPad was even announced. Exclude the spikes in the months of November and December, which could be explained as holiday demand, and you can see a steady trend of sales growth decline.

Re:Watch the messenger (2, Insightful)

jim_v2000 (818799) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142078)

Bah...the market overlap between netbooks and tablets (that would cause competition) is tiny. People who buy netbooks want a small laptop. People buy the iPad want an entertainment device. The iPad happens to be coming in ot the market at a point where it's becoming saturated with netbooks. The drop in demand in natural, and is unlikely to have anything to do with the iPad.

Re:Watch the messenger (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142130)

i agree with you. these netbook sale predictions were before the ipad was launched and not taken into consideration. even if they did, it wouldn't have been right.

p.s i really think paul thorrott's show in twit is too long and boring. there isn't much substance. i don't blame him because theres probably not much to talk about since windows 7. i'm sure leo leport also thinks so too. but friendship comes in the way.

p.s im a windows fan boy, and a bit of ms.

Re:Watch the messenger (3, Insightful)

zullnero (833754) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142270)

Seriously, who cares one way or the other? Tablets and netbooks aren't competing for the same niche. I couldn't care less about the Apple and MS fanboy back and forth between tablets and netbooks. They don't really compete for the same purposes. Realistically they could co-exist really well if the major players involved were a little more obsessed with making the customer happy than their shareholders.

Netbooks compete against laptops and desktops as a low cost, ultra-portable alternative. They're not very suitable for the things tablets are designed for, and tablets are not suitable for many of the things netbooks are designed for. The only product line the iPad could possibly put out of business is the Kindle and other e-readers. Maybe if PDAs were still around, they'd be competing in that market niche as well. But netbooks? No. Though a netbook with a detachable multitouch screen and proper online cloud support services (media store, cloud backup, etc.) might. But no, Jobs needed to start the whole brouhaha by thumping his chest about tablets being the end of netbooks.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

jipn4 (1367823) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142388)

If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover?

What makes you think the two are related? If netbook and iPad users are completely separate populations, you can still see the same behavior: one market gets saturated after a few years of sales, and a completely different market takes off.

Re:Watch the messenger (1)

vtcodger (957785) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142458)

It's silly. The ipad is interesting. It has by far the best touch screen software I've ever seen. But IMO, touch screens are loathsome especially for typing. There is no way that I'm buying an ipad rather than a cheaper, more capable, netbook. At least not unless and until "they" somehow fix ipad data entry. Which may or may not be possible.

Yes I could buy a keyboard for the ipad. But why not buy a cheaper netbook that comes with a keyboard tidily packaged?

I'm sure that I have a lot of company.

My wife who basically just does IM, eMail and surfing loves her XP based netbook. I'm much more neutral about my Windows 7 based netbook. I like the hardware other than the touchpad which is marginally tolerable with all the lunatic overloaded actions turned off. I plug a USB mouse in to do anything serious. But I absolutely detest Windows 7 on this limited hardware. I suppose that I'm going to have to spend a week of my life getting a tolerable operating system to dual boot.

Anyway, I think Thurrott is more right than wrong. ipad will certainly make a lot of sales and most of them will be sales that would otherwise go to netbooks. OTOH, netbooks are going to make a lot more sales. They'd do even better without Thurrott's favorite OS. Most people aren't as hardcase about Windows as I am, but they are getting there, and Windows 7 isn't going to help once people figure out that 'better than Vista' is sort of like 'less painful dentistry without anesthetic'. 'Better than Vista" is not an absolute measure of quality and it's apparently not a high bar.

Re:Watch the messenger (1, Flamebait)

portnux (630256) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142578)

Well, Paul Thurrott is kind of an idiot. Anyone who can be a chearleader for M$ after having used an Amiga has got to have at least a few fasteners torqued well below specification. The iPad is not a netbook first of all and shouldn't be compared to one. He's just whining because this is a formfactor that M$ has been working on for years with nothing to show for it. Once again Apple shows that they know how to design a cool new device.

news at 10 (1)

chibiace (898665) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141822)

ipad kills netbook sales through chinese lookalikes and jealous competitors

I hate this guy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141826)

Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /. would not give this guy a platform to rant on. I've written many a rebuttal to his posts simply because he says things simply to be controversial He's an 'expert' in nothing other than being a total asshat

Re:I hate this guy (2, Informative)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141848)

Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /. would not give this guy a platform to rant on. I've written many a rebuttal to his posts simply because he says things simply to be controversial He's an 'expert' in nothing other than being a total asshat

/. Is gonna give a sloppy bj to any platform that competes with the iPad, regardless of nature or any crank who hitched about apple regardless of credibility. There is traffic to be earned in stoking outrage about "the Steve" and RDF.

Re:I hate this guy (1)

vtcodger (957785) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142556)

***Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /.***

Ironically, Thurrott is complaining about others doing exactly what you are down on him about. Publishing silly statements based on inadequate research and thinking. I sort of think he's right in this case and I'd also give him some points for having the good grace and good judgment not to disparage the ipad.

Maybe you should make an exception this time. But feel free to unload the next time Thurrott returns to his old ways.

1 million (4, Insightful)

mosb1000 (710161) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141838)

Didn't they sell a million of them last month? That's about 25% of netbook sales (48million in a year would be about 4 million a month). That doesn't sound like a small fraction to me.

Re:1 million (1)

tagno25 (1518033) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141950)

But when the iPad sells approximately 20-30 million units, sales will drop significantly, if not before then.

Re:1 million (5, Interesting)

AmigaMMC (1103025) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141968)

If you are assuming that the iPad took 25% of the netbooks market I bet you're wrong. I'm willing to bet that most of those people were not planning to buy a netbook in the first place. Maybe, I could grant that iPad owners had in mind to buy an electronic book reader, to the iPad might have taken sales away from Amazon and Sony.

Re:1 million (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142214)

My family is choosing an iPad over a Netbook for our oldest child's first personal computing device. We looked at a number of Netbooks but the iPad is the better fit. We're also looking at an iPad for my wife as an alternative to a second laptop. iPads are and will continue impacting Netbook sales, as well as those of low-end notebooks and laptops. The question is how much.

Re:1 million (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142136)

Well, you would need iPad release every month with a similarly sustained sales record to be 25% of netbook sales. Have you considered that? Still iPad is one device, so it is still a very impressive record. Let's wait at least a year or two before we say iPad encroached a sizable dent on the netbook sales.

Apple, Apple, Apple .... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141840)

Could we have finally other news than the iPad?

Re:Apple, Apple, Apple .... (1)

Yvan256 (722131) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141866)

Don't worry, summer is coming so we'll have iPhone news soon enough! /duck

He can't have it both ways (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32141854)

Netbooks and sub-12-inch machines will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.

Explain again how you know that they will sell 45.6 million netbooks in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013? Oh right, you're just pulling numbers from your ass. You can't predict future sales of products, especially not netbooks, which prices keep going up to the point of not selling anymore since people will buy regular low-cost, full-sized laptops instead.

Waah? (1)

Mathness (145187) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141868)

Wait a minute, Apple is making a new product called iPad? Why isn't Slashdot covering that at all?

On a serious note, forecasts for 2011 and 2013 neither proves or disproves anything. Summary would have better of quoting some of the numbers from 2009, but I guess that would dampen the trolling/flaming that would ensue.

Netbooks Vs. iPad? (4, Informative)

Manip (656104) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141882)

I think if the iPad had a competitive price point it might be an interesting battle, one in which the iPad might win... But right now the iPad is priced like a laptop. If you look at the typical Netbook price and the cheapest iPad then we are talking above 100% price increase.

ePC - £199
iPad - £429
"Full" Laptop - £400

However what you might see happen is the iPad gets bundled with 3G mobile services and winds up costing a fair bit less in relative terms... Netbooks have tried to bundle with 3G but I think it is safe to say it has been fairly unsuccessful.

Re:Netbooks Vs. iPad? (1)

OrwellianLurker (1739950) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142092)

I bought an Asus over the winter. Paid $450, got 4 gigs of RAM, ~300 gb HD, etc. The ~$500 sales tag of the iPad is ridiculously high.

Re:Netbooks Vs. iPad? (4, Interesting)

Splab (574204) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142094)

"Netbooks have tried to bundle with 3G but I think it is safe to say it has been fairly unsuccessful."

I think it's fairly safe to say bullshit - might be true for your neck of the woods, but around here, bundling a 3G dongle is a big hit (EU - Denmark), in fact, such a big hit some of the big carriers are having trouble delivering the amount of bandwith needed.

Oh, oh! I know! (1)

Udo Schmitz (738216) | more than 4 years ago | (#32141902)

Wouldn't the iPad fall under "sub-12-inch machines"? Wouldn't it then be part of the "45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013"? And though I did bet a bottle of polish vodka on the iPad selling 5 million times this year, now that I know the 1st month numbers, I guess it could well be 7,5 million. Looks like it could take a pretty significant percentage in 2011 ... But then of course I'm not a prolific analyst and expert.

Content creation (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142016)

As a content creator, for me, the Ipad just doesn't cut it. I see it as being targeted for consumers who want an appliance for accessing information and not creating it. For anything more than that, you will still need a device offering the flexibility that traditional computers offer. Examples being graphic applications, music compositions and programming (et al.)

Having said that, I think once the content has been created, using a tablet might be just another interesting way of interacting/interfacing with said content (think live shows using it as a MIDI controller, for instance.)

Re:Content creation (3, Insightful)

Man On Pink Corner (1089867) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142150)

As a content creator, for me, the Ipad just doesn't cut it.

As a plumber, I can tell you that the iPad's not very useful for that, either.

Did you have a point?

Re:Content creation (1)

dameron (307970) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142262)

As a plumber, I can tell you that the iPad's not very useful for that, either.

Sure, and I bet you have your wrenches sorted by whether they're good for tightening or loosening.

Re:Content creation (1)

jo_ham (604554) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142434)

I used to shoot commercial video for a living; do you think I used a consumer grade TV as a viewing monitor in the studio or on OB?

I certainly did sort my screens into "good for using while shooting video" and "good for watching finished product on".

Funnily enough, I sorted my computers that way too, since I didn't need a multi core behemoth for browsing the net on the sofa. I got by with a small laptop.

Re:Content creation (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142380)

Yes, he had a point. It was that an iPad is not a general purpose computing device even though it has the processor and RAM specs to be one. It is a content consumption device and fits a different niche of the market than a general purpose device. That may be good for sales (general purpose devices can by definition do more things, but add complexity). It also limits the potential market. Whether that is a good thing or not remains to be seen once sales fall off to their normal (post launch) numbers.

Re:Content creation (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142404)

It also limits the potential market... ... to that of a market the size of, well, TV sets and radios.

Did you miss the marketing? (1)

IANAAC (692242) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142250)

I see it as being targeted for consumers who want an appliance for accessing information and not creating it.

That's exactly how it's being marketed. Nowhere do I see or have I seen it being marketed at content creators.

Why would you even try to shoehorn your needs into a device that clearly won't do what you want?

Based on projections ... (3, Insightful)

BitZtream (692029) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142018)

So let me get this straight, the argument here is that the iPad isnt effecting netbook sales because the projected number of netbooks to be sold in 2011 hasn't been changed in the last month ...

Seriously, someone fucking fire timothy, he hasn't posted anything that wasn't a blatent slashvertisment or flat out obviously wrong in at least 2 years.

Why don't we wait until someone gets some real sales numbers and there has been more than a month before we start talking about how its effecting the market.

I don't think the iPad is going to effect much either, but I don't try to back that up using sales PROJECTIONS made by people who aren't actually doing the selling. The WSJ must be pretty damn smart to predict the future with 0 input to base it on.

Re:Based on projections ... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142140)

the iPad isnt effecting netbook sales because the projected number of netbooks to be sold in 2011 hasn't been changed in the last month ...

Seriously, someone fucking fire timothy, he hasn't posted anything that wasn't a blatent slashvertisment or flat out obviously wrong in at least 2 years.

I didn't know people still got effecting and affecting confused. Mamma mia!

The Difference Between Affect And Effect (2, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142204)

Generally speaking, affect is a verb and effect is a noun. When you affect something, you produce an effect on it. Even in the passive voice, something would be affected, not effected.

Re:Based on projections ... (3, Insightful)

bloodhawk (813939) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142240)

I think your missing his point.

ie. the most optimistic projections are saying about 3-4 million ipads, now if one assumes that they are going to take that directly from netbooks (something I seriously doubt) then the future projected size of the market is very relevant. If the market is expected to be 46 million than it can be assumed the ipad even if it reached the optimistic end of predictions will have only a small impact on the netbook market

however what is more likely is that the ipads are stealing sales from ebook readers and there is also a large group of apple fanatics that would buy steve jobs farts if he bottled it. Thus significantly shrinking the possible effect on netbook sales.

So what he is saying is, if the market is supposed to be ~50million for these small computer devices, how the fuck does a million or so units of that market taken by apple equal the the end of netbooks.

Its not a static market (1)

voss (52565) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142068)

Android tablets are coming out every day. ARM based Netbooks are selling for less than $100.
If you believe people who plan on buying a sub-$200 netbook will really buy a $400 Ipad, you have got
a screw loose.

Re:Its not a static market (2, Insightful)

Mad Leper (670146) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142142)

Could you please provide a link to where these ARM based netbooks or Android tablets are being sold? Cheapest netbooks I've seen start at $400 CDN and functional tablets have been pretty much vapourware..

Re:Its not a static market (1)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142248)

Man when you can point me to a non-vaporware tablet in the price range, do so. I'll take a look at it. Until then it seems absurd to compare a real product which shipped in the PAST with some notional product which may ship in the future.

Re:Its not a static market (1)

LynnwoodRooster (966895) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142540)

Would the Archos 7 [archos.com] with an MSRP of $199 be considered a non-vaporware tablet? You can buy it from Amazon [amazon.com] .

Re:Its not a static market (1)

macs4all (973270) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142726)

ARM based Netbooks are selling for less than $100

OMG, he's right! There ARE laptops less than $100 [amazon.com] !!!

Microsoft's OEM Licensing killing more than iPad (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142100)

The utter lack of progress in netbook specs in the past 18 months is due to Microsoft's oem licensing policies for XP and Windows 7 starter. They practically give it away to the netbook manufacturers to muscle linux out but their specs require specific (minimal) display resolution, cpu speed and memory (notice how it is impossible to fine a 4gb netbook from anybody). My 2 year old AspireOne is "okay" but I'd jump for a newer model if they where in any fashion better.

Apple produces luxury goods (0, Troll)

Glass Goldfish (1492293) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142118)

Not necessarily higher quality. Or more powerful. Or better features. But Apple's goods have an air of luxury around them (smells like hipster). And a price tag to match. Sure there are regular folks who will save their pennies and buy an Apple product, but the real market is in the upper class. Which limits them to fraction of the market, admittedly with a higher margin. You're probably paying $100 just for the Apple trademark on an iPad. Virtually nobody is choosing between an iPad and a value priced Linux/Windows netbook. I'd prefer a netbook (even a cheap one), so I can have a decent keyboard. Although I haven't handled an iPad myself, I've seen reviews that were quite negative about the touchscreen keyboard.

Paul thurrott an expert? (2, Insightful)

ericdano (113424) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142134)

Seriously? This guy has been so wrong on apple over the years that I think taking his opinion on apple or anything tech would be like believing exRaider Jamarcus Russell that he was doing well at QB.

seriously slashdot should have higher standards than Thurott

Two different market segments (4, Insightful)

zullnero (833754) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142168)

I dropped 300 bucks for my netbook last year on a whim. I had a pretty burly laptop at the time...then the nVidia sli bug kicked in and fried my video cards. I had nothing else and I had another project come up, so I took my netbook in and used it for development (obviously hooked it up to a monitor, mouse, keyboard, etc.). Worked like a charm for me. And I do a lot of .NET development and SQL stuff, but that little Atom processor and the 2GB of RAM was plenty enough for my needs (and actually, I was able to catch a timing bug that I couldn't replicate on a higher end Win7 notebook, but I digress).

See, I can get actual WORK done on a netbook. I can do paperwork, make website edits, do a whole lot of other things without having to lug around (or pay for) a much more expensive high end laptop...and I don't see myself replacing that netbook with a bigger laptop anytime soon unless I'm stuck using higher end systems for a client. If I need to do something really high end, I use my desktop at home or whatever a client dumps on my desk for work purposes. Otherwise, the netbook is all I'd need...the only real reason I had my old laptop was for gaming, and I'm better off doing that on my desktop at home anyway.

The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments. Tablets are fun, show-off things that you use to waste time (though just like netbooks, they really suck for gaming). But you can actually get work done on a netbook and a good one will cost you less, too. Sorry, tablet fans, but that's how it is. They may be super cool to you and you think that you paid 500 bucks for a great thing, but you know in your heart that you paid 500 bucks for a goof-off device.

Re:Two different market segments (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#32142246)

Overstated...

I agree with your comments about the netbook...I own one as well, and it more than meets my needs for development.

However, your comments about the Ipad are off-base. If I really stretch things, it is a goof-off device. But so what? A television is goof-off device, so is a DVD player, a game console, and (for that matter) any mp3 player. But, as I said, so what? Life is more than just work, and it would be a pretty dark world if everything is judged solely on how useful it is for doing work.

Re:Two different market segments (4, Insightful)

Protonk (599901) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142314)

I'm really puzzled by the persistence of this view and the rancor which is usually associated with it. First off, if people spent 500 bucks on an ipad knowing full well it doesn't do the suite of things you mention, who cares? I can't do econometric analysis or write software on my ipad, but I don't intend to. I sure as hell can surf the web, watch movies, answer emails, etc. You make a good point that the tablet market doesn't really devour the laptop market. But that doesn't generalize too well. How big is the segment of the market which wants a netbook but can't stomach a tablet? My guess is that it is pretty small. It may grow bigger as netbooks grow more powerful, but tablets are growing in power as well. The ipad wasn't even conceivable 3 years ago. Three years from now when netbook class devices can rival "real" laptops, what will the limits to tablets?

Re:Two different market segments (1)

RyuuzakiTetsuya (195424) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142582)

Given the iPhone OS 3.2's now hooking Bluetooth keyboards into the keyboard API(Not to mention the Apple Dock keyboard), I'd easily say that no, the iPad IS meant for content creation.

It's just not ment to ape the Netbook formfactor. If I'm at my favorite bar, there's enough room in my bag for a stand, an ipad, and a bluetooth minikeyboard for use with things like SSHTerm should I be called about critical failures with something or another.

Re:Two different market segments (4, Insightful)

JaredOfEuropa (526365) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142382)

They may be super cool to you and you think that you paid 500 bucks for a great thing, but you know in your heart that you paid 500 bucks for a goof-off device.

Why on earth wouldn't paying $500 for a goof-off device be a good thing? It's just the right size for some idle browsing or watching movies, and small and light enough to be an easy carry. $500 bucks may be a lot if you're shopping for a netbook or a light laptop, but remember that not too long ago we paid this much for rather crappy portable dvd players.

Actually I plan on using mine for work too. The things that come to mind immediately are:
- e-reader/browser for reference material. I don't always have a twin monitor setup available, and the iPad makes a great e-reader for reference books. For this sort of work the screen beats a typical netbook, though it won't replace my e-paper reader for heavy reading anytime soon.
- taking notes in meetings. It may not be the best device for this, but it does let me quickly draw diagrams as well as write text, and it is thin enough to slip into my leather folder for easy carrying.
- Capturing ideas. Again the ability to do some quick diagrams come in real handy for this. Netbooks, laptops or even desktops kind of suck for this, as the drawing tools (mouse + primitives) distract from the thought process, whereas a tablet lets you draw naturally (fingers on a touchscreen).

I am by no means convinced yet that the iPad is the better choice for my particular line of work, but it sure hit the ground running. The fact that it lets me goof of in ways hereto unimagined is just a bonus... by the way, what gave you the idea that gaming on iPads suck? The thing just hit the market but there's already a couple of great games available. Different games than we play on our desktops, to be sure....

Anyways, I am not sure how useful this thing will turn out to be... for sure, it is a whole different way of working. But if it turns out to be not so good, at least making someone else happy with it should prove easy.

The problem with Slashdot is the same (5, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142416)

Worked like a charm for me. And I do a lot of .NET development and SQL stuff... ....
The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments.

And the problem with people that think the iPad lives in a different space is that they do not realize how few people need to do things like .NET development that cannot be done on an iPad.

Microsoft software ecosystem is years behind (1, Interesting)

dirkdodgers (1642627) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142186)

Apple has built a robust and vibrant software ecosystem around mobile devices that has generated more excitement among consumers and developers alike than we've seen in 5 years.

The thing that has got to be eating Microsoft execs up is that even if Microsoft entered the revived consumer tablet space tomorrow, they would be starting years behind.

I've known a lot of microsofties over the years, most of them former; I don't think the Microsoft corporate culture today is capable of delivering successful consumer products in this space.

End of the world (1)

Yvan256 (722131) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142234)

Paul Thurrott knows the world ends in 2012. He only quoted netbook sales for 2011 and 2013.

Not much impact... already leveling off (5, Insightful)

sunfly (1248694) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142302)

Netbook Growth Chart [wired.com]

Netbook sales were already leveling off. Looking at the sales figures, they have continued their downward growth trend that started months before the iPad was released. I have no idea how this is stretched into an iPad effect.

  • The recession is easing, and people have more to spend on electronics, and are purchasing what they really wanted.
  • It appears two of the biggest computer manufacturers Dell and HP are mostly exiting the netbook market.

MacBook Air anyone? (2, Insightful)

jipn4 (1367823) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142406)

Maybe iPad sales are cutting into netbooks, maybe not. But what makes people think Apple can keep this up?

The MacBook Air looked like the granddaddy of netbooks, it was shiny and hot; and a year or two after its release, its just another expensive, light, and slow laptop for Mac users with too much cash.

The same is likely going to happen with iPads. Apple pushed the thing out the door quickly, but low-cost tablets have been in the pipeline for a couple of years, and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs than the iPad and no software restrictions this year.

The "likely" $200 tablet (3, Interesting)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142488)

and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs

Why then is the Crunchpad (sorry, JooJoo) $500?

Before it was released, it was supposed to be $200 too... I'll believe that price point when I see it.

The more important question is... (1)

very (241808) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142594)

Why would anyone would quote Paul Thurrott? Why is this on Slashdot? This is like reading press release from Redmond, Washington.

Re:The more important question is... (2, Insightful)

dingen (958134) | more than 4 years ago | (#32142730)

My thoughts exactly. Paul Thurrott is a well-known (and quite succesful) troll. He will bash anything Apple does, he will love anything Microsoft does and he's often not even subtle about it. He even manages to like the Kin phones and claim "most reviews are positive", while in fact every major tech website hates them. When reading something from the hand of Paul Thurrott, you quickly realize RDFs aren't Apple-exclusive.
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