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Pacific Northwest At Risk For Mega-Earthquake

kdawson posted more than 3 years ago | from the whole-lotta-shakin' dept.

Earth 457

Hugh Pickens writes "Science Daily Headlines reports on research by Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger showing that earthquakes of magnitude 8.2 (or higher) have occurred 41 times during the past 10,000 years in the Pacific Northwest. By extrapolation, there is a 37% chance of another major earthquake in the area in the next 50 years that could exceed the power of recent seismic events in Chile and Haiti. If a magnitude-9 quake does strike the Cascadia Subduction Zone, extending from northern Vancouver Island to northern California, the ground could shake for several minutes, highways could be torn to pieces, bridges might collapse, and buildings would be damaged or even crumble. If the epicenter is just offshore, coastal residents could have as little as 15 minutes of warning before a tsunami could strike. 'It is not a question of if a major earthquake will strike,' says Goldfinger, 'it is a matter of when. And the "when" is looking like it may not be that far in the future.'" Read below for more.
The last major earthquake to hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone was in January 1700. Scientists are aware of the impact because of written records from Japan documenting the damage caused by the ensuing tsunami, which crested across the Pacific at about 5 meters (15 feet). Knowledge about what happened in Oregon and Washington is more speculative, but the consensus — gleaned from studies of coastal estuaries, land formations, and river channels — is that the physical alteration to the coast was stunning. The outer coastal regions subsided and drowned coastal marshlands and forests, which were subsequently covered with younger sediments. "Perhaps more striking than the probability numbers is that we ... have already gone longer without an earthquake than 75% of the known times between earthquakes in the last 10,000 years," says Goldfinger. "And 50 years from now, that number will rise to 85 percent."

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457 comments

No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (5, Funny)

sapphire wyvern (1153271) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346838)

Seriously? A man named Goldfinger is threatening the Pacific Northwest with tidal waves and earthquakes?

Well, at least MI5 will save us...

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (4, Informative)

Chas (5144) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346866)

Well, at least it's better than the whole laser-beam-to-the-crotch method of execution.

What? Of course I'd rather be drowned, crushed, and torn apart by massive hydraulic forces!

Yeah! Yeah! I AM a guy! So what?

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347040)

Well, at least it's better than the whole laser-beam-to-the-crotch method of execution.

...and a hell of a lot better than the laser beam from the crotch method of execution.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347098)

Informative? Really? /Smekarn

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (5, Funny)

Chrisq (894406) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346884)

Seriously? A man named Goldfinger is threatening the Pacific Northwest with tidal waves and earthquakes?

Well, at least MI5 will save us...

Don't worry. We have an agent working on it. I'm sure that whatever the magnitude of the earthquake he'll be shaken but not stirred.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (2, Funny)

L4t3r4lu5 (1216702) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347214)

Well it's about time the baddy got to make the world move for the ladies...

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347706)

The original version of the joke is that James Bond slept through an earthquake - ie he was shaken but not stirred.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (4, Insightful)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346908)

Seriously? A man named Goldfinger is threatening the Pacific Northwest with tidal waves and earthquakes?

A more reasonable Goldfinger. After all, he barely expects a 37% chance of Mr. Bond dying in the next 50 years.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (1)

Vekseid (1528215) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346916)

The Pacific Northwest doesn't need to worry about the Tsunami. That's the job of everyone else living near the Pacific.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32346944)

... MI5 ...

You mean MI6 (Now called SIS) </nitpick>

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (3, Funny)

hey! (33014) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347162)

You mean MI6 (Now called SIS)

Can you imagine the reaction of the operatives when that memo made the rounds?

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32346990)

Well, at least MI5 will save us...

Does the Northwest have exotic women and/or liquors? We might have trouble getting 007 out here.

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (4, Funny)

elrous0 (869638) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347422)

If it falls into the ocean, my real estate holdings in Otisburg will be worth a fortune!

Re:No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347468)

Perhaps he's teaming up with Max Zorin ("A View To a Kill"). I knew the Bond films were running out of ideas, but having multiple villains joining forces is going to turn this whole series into another Batman-like franchise.

Yet another reason... (2, Insightful)

Bicx (1042846) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346850)

... why I'm glad I don't live in California.

Re:Yet another reason... (3, Informative)

rhsanborn (773855) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346900)

Because everywhere else in the US doesn't have other natural disasters. There aren't wildfires in the west, tornadoes in the mid-west, hurricanes in the south, blizzards, snow storms, and ice storms in the north, flooding along the Mississippi...

Re:Yet another reason... (3, Funny)

poetmatt (793785) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346934)

Wha? There are blizzards, snow storms, ice storms, hail and excessive temperature and pressure changes in the midwest (which lead to tornadoes).

no need to make it sound like all they have is tornadoes. Tornadoes just hit the trailer parks.

Re:Yet another reason... (2, Interesting)

mcgrew (92797) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347752)

Tornadoes just hit the trailer parks.

I was in a tornado [slashdot.org] . The tree behind the apartment I was living in looked like a weed someone had stomped on. There were trees with five foot diameter trunks uprooted; steel girders twisted, splinters driven into concrete blocks. The walk-in cooler at a bar down the street was ripped from the building. But the trailer park down the street was completely destroyed; it's a vacant lot now. Miraculously, nobody was seriously hurt!

This (central Illinois) may be the only place in the world where you can have snow storms, ice storms, rain, hail, sleet, and tornados all in the same week!

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346942)

Because everywhere else in the US doesn't have other natural disasters. There aren't wildfires in the west, tornadoes in the mid-west, hurricanes in the south, blizzards, snow storms, and ice storms in the north, flooding along the Mississippi...

Dear God! I had to delete three paragraphs of flamebait!

It's just too easy to continue that quote.

Re:Yet another reason... (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32346948)

if you consider snow to be a natural disaster then you are probably from Atlanta

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Zantac69 (1331461) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347316)

I always smile when we get these "snow storms" in Atlanta - but I have to get to the store before they sell out of beer!

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Trepidity (597) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347322)

I was in Atlanta when freezing rain was predicted once, and the city's response was to: park ambulances near the overpasses likely to freeze, so they'd be prepositioned to cart off the people injured in the accidents that would likely result. Seems salt trucks were not available in the region.

Re:Yet another reason... (3, Informative)

Bicx (1042846) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346974)

True, but natural disasters aren't the only reason I'm glad I don't live in California. Imploding economy, poor leadership, overbearing laws, and similar issues are others.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347228)

True, but natural disasters aren't the only reason I'm glad I don't live in California. Imploding economy, poor leadership, overbearing laws, and similar issues are others.

Name a state without the same problems, and you won't be talking about the USA.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

cyn1c77 (928549) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347630)

True, but natural disasters aren't the only reason I'm glad I don't live in California. Imploding economy, poor leadership, overbearing laws, and similar issues are others.

Name a state without the same problems, and you won't be talking about the USA.

Alaska only has one of the three.

Re:Yet another reason... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347472)

'Valley girls', people who think that Hollywood is the greatest place on earth, people who think they can become Hollywood superstars, Hollywood superstars and gang violence. There are a lot of reasons to stay the hell away from there. Earthquakes are almost an enticement to go there.

Re:Yet another reason... (3, Funny)

FTWinston (1332785) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347044)

Yet another reason ... why I'm glad I don't live in the USA.

Fixed that for the GP. I mean, seriously. Is there a form of natural disaster you guys aren't under constant threat of?

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

plover (150551) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347350)

Yet another reason ... why I'm glad I don't live in the USA.

Fixed that for the GP. I mean, seriously. Is there a form of natural disaster you guys aren't under constant threat of?

Hey, reminding us of that constantly is the job of politicians facing elections, not slashdot.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347066)

I live in Maryland, about 30 minutes outside of DC, and pretty much nothing happens here. Granted, we sometimes get the freak snowstorm (like Feb's Snowmegeddon), or sometimes get the tail end of tropical storms, but for the most part, the DC/Metro area doesn't have to worry about anything like that.

Oh wait....DC...never mind, we have our own brand of disaster to worry about -_-;;

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

GigsVT (208848) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347254)

Yeah, here in Virginia and the area around here, we don't get much in the way of natural disasters.

A little flooding if you are stupid enough to build in a flood area, the occasional tornado that usually doesn't get very far before the mountains and trees break it up. etc.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

plover (150551) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347406)

Are you kidding? 99 degree weather with 99% humidity is a freakin' disaster in my book.

Re:Yet another reason... (2, Funny)

rwa2 (4391) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347488)

Yes! The DC/Metro area is great! All the seasons! Free museums! Lots of jobs (in administrative overhead)! You really want to move here! You could live in my condo by a Metro station!

I for one, am in favor of Pacific-Northwest fearmongering, no one really wants to live there!

/ Been trying to relocate to the Pacific Northwest for quite a few years now
// Have a feeling a lot of this fearmongering is encouraged by residents who don't want others to move in and bespoil it :-P
/// Says something about the praise we have for the DC/Metro area... hmmm....

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347584)

I've lived here my whole life (lived in Montgomery Village until I was 6, then Olney, then lived in Germantown, then Gaithersburg, now downtown Rockville), and I love it around here...but when we leave the area in a few years, I certainly won't miss the traffic, overcrowding, or asshole drivers. I really miss how this area used to be...hell, Olney, my hometown, had only 7500 residents in it when my parents moved in there almost 20 years ago (I'm 26). Now, Olney has close to 40,000 people...and the city limits haven't expanded outward by much. Don't get me started on Downtown Rockville, this place is insanely crowded.

Still, it is my home, and despite its flaws, I do love it :/

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

commodore64_love (1445365) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347156)

>>>Because everywhere else in the US doesn't have other natural disasters.

Not compared to California. The worst "disaster" we have here (northeast) is 3 feet of snow, and all you have to do is wait for it to melt off the roads (usually 2 days or less). ..... But if your roof falls down on you, or a tidal wave buries you under 2 stories of water..... well that's it.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

captainpanic (1173915) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347786)

Because everywhere else in the US doesn't have other natural disasters. There aren't wildfires in the west, tornadoes in the mid-west, hurricanes in the south, blizzards, snow storms, and ice storms in the north, flooding along the Mississippi...

Re:Yet another reason... ...why I'm glad I don't live in the USA.

Re:Yet another reason... (2, Informative)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347412)

... why I'm glad I don't live in California.

Here's a list of the earthquakes for the last 7 days [usgs.gov] . California is not the only place to be concerned about.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

jason.sweet (1272826) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347680)

'It is not a question of if a major earthquake will strike,' says Goldfinger, 'it is a matter of when."

Can't the same be said about any place on the planet.

I think they teach that line in the "How to get in the newspaper" section of first year geology school.

Re:Yet another reason... (1)

Pteraspidomorphi (1651293) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347736)

I'm not american or canadian, but I've been on a road trip which visited exactly that stretch of land and I must say it's a seriously beautiful region, even despite Seattle. I hope it's not torn apart by a mega-earthquake; it would be a waste.

Washington? (5, Funny)

morgan_greywolf (835522) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346862)

Hey, Microsoft, arrrreee youuuuu ready to ruuuuuuuummmmbllle!!!!!!!

Oblig. xkcd (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32346906)

By extrapolation

http://xkcd.com/605/ [xkcd.com]

Re:Oblig. xkcd (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347152)

Well, either you or the moderators misunderstood that strip, though (my guess is that it's the mods). The point isn't that all extrapolation is bad, flimsy or invalid; it's just that not all naive extrapolations are automatically valid.

It's rather like with correlation and causation, too. Sure, correlation doesn't imply causation, but that doesn't mean that when there is correlation, there NEVER is causation (also an unfortunately all too common Slashdot meme that gets employed whenever an article causes cognitive dissonance...)

Re:Oblig. xkcd (3, Insightful)

jamesh (87723) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347672)

You must be new here. Any xkcd reference gets an automatic +3 Interesting/Insightful mod, it's built in to slashcode. The fact that you think that someone would click on a link before moderating is laughable.

And... (5, Insightful)

s31523 (926314) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346910)

This information is great and all, but now what? Sure, the governments could be responsible and dust off the ol' disaster plans and have more frequent drills, but honestly, the day that the big one (earthquake, or, earthquake plus tidal wave) hits, the situation is going to be FUBAR no matter what people do. Sure, some preparedness will result in minor differences in life loss, etc. but in the grand scheme of things the same net effect will occur: total destruction. Therefore, the government, the people, anyone will do nothing but scoff at the prediction, until it happens, and then will cry "why didn't anyone tell me about this or do anything".

Preparation (1)

Futurepower(R) (558542) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347060)

There is a lot of preparation that could help. Have dry food. Have water for a few days. Be prepared to move out of the area for a few days until water and electricity are available again.

Unfortunately, those who predict an earthquake don't give much guidance for preparation. It would be useful to know, for example, what an earthquake is likely to do to a wooden house held together by nails.

The subduction zone is off the coast. How would an earthquake there affect Portland, Oregon, which is 80 miles inland?

What bridges would be destroyed in Portland? What buildings?

We need more information. It is useful to prepare.

Re:Preparation (4, Funny)

plover (150551) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347452)

The subduction zone is off the coast. How would an earthquake there affect Portland, Oregon, which is 80 miles inland?

Create a lot of new beachfront property?

Re:Preparation (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347522)

Unfortunately, those who predict an earthquake don't give much guidance for preparation. It would be useful to know, for example, what an earthquake is likely to do to a wooden house held together by nails.

If you live in the Pacific Northwest, and you don't know what an earthquake does to a wooden house held together by nails and metal straps (let's be accurate here, those metal tie plates are mandated by code in earthquake country) then you deserve to die in an earthquake. With that said, the house I live in is floppy and sloppy. Seriously considering a shipping container home.

Re:And... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347342)

every day I try and pick out the stupidist thing I heard. Congratulations, today you've won the prize!

the chilean earthquake was 500 times stronger than the haiti one, and yet the aftermath was 500 times less worse. why was that? could it be that chile has
stricter building codes than california? could it be that they had prepared for
this to happen as they live on top of a subducting fault line and there is a
history of these things happening?

nah, eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die! it's the american way.

Ob (2, Funny)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 3 years ago | (#32346946)

Clearly it's BP's fault. Those evil Belgians!

Re:Ob (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347206)

what part of british petrol are you having trouble with?

Re:Ob (1)

Hognoxious (631665) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347610)

Which part of "it is now 2010, not 1998" are YOU having trouble with?

The B means the same as the J in Michael J. Fox. No doubt you won't get that either.

Oh, one other thing - the P never stood for "petrol" either.

Re:Ob (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347226)

BP = British Petroleum

Re:Ob (1)

Trepidity (597) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347378)

Yeah, like anyone's going to believe your retroactive pawning it off on the Brits, you goddamn Belgian.

No problem. (1)

Black Parrot (19622) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347014)

If they can hang on 'til the end of 2012, the problem will go away.

Re:No problem. (1)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347124)

That depends on how you see it.

How far from the predicted epicenter lived the guys who believed in the 2012 thing?

Maybe some guys came from the north and, when asked about the reasons for their trip they just said "We predicted a 37% chance of the the earth opening and eating our village in about 1000 years, so we decided to move".

East, west who cares (1)

sveinb (305718) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347016)

California may be west of many things, but last time I checked it was on the east side of the Pacific.

Re:East, west who cares (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347096)

To every good US American, the USA are the centre of the world. Thus California is in the north west.

Same old thing... (5, Insightful)

kaychoro (1340087) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347062)

I've lived south of Seattle for 30 years, and predictions like these have been coming for years and years. I've personally felt 2 earthquakes, and seen dust from Mt. Saint Helens. While this doesn't minimize the likelihood of another big earthquake, I just question the reason this is news - especially on /.

Re:Same old thing... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347200)

"I just question the reason this is news - especially on /."

It's a recent scientific finding.
Your personal experience with earthquakes has little to do with it.

Re:Same old thing... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347454)

This is not a recent finding. It's a rehash of the same doom and gloom predictions that people in California have been hearing for decades. It's the same crap in a different sandwich.
The end is near, now get scared so we can successfully scam even more taxpayers money. It's a tired pattern that works very well and is used on everything from earthquakes to oil to global warming.

Re:Same old thing... (1)

tgd (2822) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347204)

I suspect it amounts to the fact that nothing gets the slashbot's panties wet like the possibility of something wiping out Microsoft.

Re:Same old thing... (1)

spleentor (873802) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347250)

Exactly, this isn't news. I've lived in Seattle my entire life and this is nothing I haven't heard before.

Re:Same old thing... (3, Interesting)

statusbar (314703) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347738)

I've met people 20 years ago who moved away from Vancouver in 1980 because they were scared of the big earthquake that will come ANY DAY NOW!

There is probably more chance to get hit by a drunk driver when you are walking down the road where they moved to.

--jeffk++

damned lies (1, Insightful)

jsepeta (412566) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347086)

just because something happened in the past doesn't mean that it will happen again. let's take a hard look at the facts and the numbers, and not be frightened by prophecy. statistics tell the story that you want to tell.

Re:damned lies (1, Flamebait)

jandersen (462034) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347212)

just because something happened in the past doesn't mean that it will happen again. let's take a hard look at the facts and the numbers, and not be frightened by prophecy. statistics tell the story that you want to tell.

You are right, of course. So, why don't you jump out of tall building? Just because things have fallen downwards in the past doesn't mean that you can't stay up if you try.

Re:damned lies (1)

Demonantis (1340557) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347268)

The first red light should be the mention of extrapolation. No statistician I have met was ever willing to extrapolate beyond the set. There are no sound methods to do extrapolation analysis. This guy is making assumptions and is playing up the danger by not outlining them. I would ignore the quack as there is no way to stop the earth quake and the worry would be senseless. There should be a plan of action for that type of disaster though, but that would be irregardless of how likely the quake is.

It is a Pity... (1)

Mike Mentalist (544984) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347110)

Even whilst armed with this information there is little that could realisticly be done to minimise the impact of it. The area effected is too large and the timescale given is too vague. I would imagine that even a country like the US, with the sheer amount of resources available to it, would struggle to deal with such a thing.

I wonder... (1)

ringmaster1982 (1817772) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347118)

... if San Andreas was a dead giveaway. In other news, scientists warn that a tornado catastrophe could hit Kansas in the next 10 years...

So your're watchin SyFy Now too? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347192)

Way to go, grrrl!

Well, as long as we're talking catastrophe (3, Interesting)

argStyopa (232550) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347198)

I'm curious what the impact of earthquakes in/around the NW would have on the Yellowstone Caldera.
Granted, it sounds like the earthquakes in the NW are orders of magnitude more frequent (and less catastrophic) than the eruption of the Yellowstone formation, but it seems likely that one might impact the other, being that they're only what, about 700mi apart?

Old news (4, Insightful)

psyque (1234612) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347222)

I've lived in British Columbia for 28 years and this is old news. They've been measuring the distance and stress on the plates between Vancouver and Vancouver Island for decades. Most of us are well aware that at any time we could get hit with an earthquake of biblical proportions.

Pacific NorthWest? (4, Informative)

bigrockpeltr (1752472) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347240)

i guess only Americans would understand that...

For the rest of the world they are referring to the North Eastern Pacific.

Re:Pacific NorthWest? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#32347400)

You mean Alaska?

Really!?!? (1)

Jetrel (514839) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347288)

Really this is news worthy?? Doesn't the world realize that we live on top of a molten core that is a river of rock and that the surface that we live on could be equated to the shell of an egg. Easily cracked and fragile with lots of pressure from below? Why don't we just report pending massive earthquakes and volcanoes "ON THE EARTH" and be done with it?

It the blackhawks after they beat nashville it got (1)

Joe The Dragon (967727) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347652)

It the blackhawks after they beat Nashville it got flooded Vancouver is ok for now. But now is SJ next???

Will California become it's own nation after it br (1)

Joe The Dragon (967727) | more than 3 years ago | (#32347698)

Will California become it's own nation after it breaks off from the usa? It if becomes a island?

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