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Devs Bet Big On Android Over Apple's iOS

Soulskill posted more than 4 years ago | from the striding-toward-peak-apps dept.

Cellphones 328

CWmike writes "A majority of mobile app developers see Android as the smart bet over the long run even as they vote for Apple's iOS in the short term, according to a survey conducted jointly by Appcelerator and IDC. The survey polled more than 2,300 developers who use Appcelerator's Titanium cross-platform compiler to produce iOS and Android native apps. Of the 2,300 polled, 59% said that Android had the 'best long-term outlook,' compared with just 35% who pegged Apple's iOS with that label. But three out of four said that iOS offers the best 'near-term' outlook, with 76% tagging Apple's operating system as the best revenue opportunity."

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woowoo (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718030)

speculation is shit. who cares...

Re:woowoo (5, Insightful)

hedwards (940851) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718064)

Given the way that Apple treats 3rd party devs and the locked down phone, it would be very surprising if Apple keeps their loyalty without making a major course correction. Those dick moves like randomly rejecting applications and stealing functionality out of apps for the base system isn't really endearing them with the people they need to keep the appstore vibrant.

Re:woowoo (1)

postbigbang (761081) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718116)

The lockdown goes to vendors that can use iOS (1), US telcos that you can use (1), developer programs you can use (1, with variants), approval process for applications (1, draconian), years you can wait for a CDMA phone (divide by 0 error), and of course, the all important under 18 years old experience, meaning bleached and sanitized content (arbitrary, sometimes capricious).

Yet Android has its lockdowns, vendors with dubious business plans, hardware that breaks both in and out of warranty. Couple this to Google, who is a white knight in sheep's clothing, having ostensible control over Android future.

Ok, I like wild and wooly rather than the device of (1).

Re:woowoo (2, Interesting)

WarJolt (990309) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718204)

Rejecting apps is only the tip of the iceberg. Objective-c is Apples attempt to co-opt developers. This has backfired. Developers like freedom to own what they make and not be locked into a solution. I can use C,C++ and java on any desktop system really easily. Rejecting apps is all part of Apples attempt to lock you in. Conform or die. Resistance if futile.

Apples attempt to assimilate developers will fail.

Re:woowoo (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718316)

Objective-c is Apples attempt to co-opt developers.

What are you talking about? The only ObjC code you need to write is stuff that binds to Apples frameworks and there's a "Toll Free" bridge for C types via Core Foundation.

Google attempted to co-opt JavaME developers for Android with the end result that nobody sane wants to write for their platform. If 100% native apps written in C/C++ (or even Go) were possible, I'd already be developing for android and I suspect I'm not alone on that front.

Re:woowoo (1)

AHuxley (892839) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718474)

Both wanted walled gardens. Both played hard. Both backed down in some areas of code dev when exposed in public. Lesson learned, you will be used and they wanted total control.

Re:woowoo (5, Informative)

DJRumpy (1345787) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718250)

You do realize that Apple has paid out over a billion dollars to developers? I always enjoy these off the cuff statemetns about how poorly Apple Developers are treated when the simple fact is, that it is a lucrative market, which is why 3 of 4 still plan to develop for it in the immediate future. (ref: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20007010-260.html [cnet.com] )

Assuming they create a good product, they are treated very well, getting an instant distribution model that functions at break even. Not a bad deal at all.

Given the way that Apple treats 3rd party devs and the locked down phone, it would be very surprising if Apple keeps their loyalty without making a major course correction. Those dick moves like randomly rejecting applications and stealing functionality out of apps for the base system isn't really endearing them with the people they need to keep the appstore vibrant.

The simple fact is that a huge majority of apps are approved within 2 weeks. Of those that are rejected, almost unilaterally they violated the developer agreement, and then complain about it after the fact. Google Voice was a good example. At the time it was developed, it offered unlimited texting, which duplicated core functionality, which of course is listed in black in white the agreement.

I know it's popular to love to hate Apple lately, but the simple fact is that the majority of apps are rejected because the developer took a chance and ignored the agreement. I will grant that some of these rejections seem a bit stupid.

Given that 95% percent are accepted without any issue at all, leaving only 5% of questionable apps, the argument that Apple is rejecting apps willy nilly is not exactly a good reflection of reality.

Re:woowoo (1)

blahbooboo (839709) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718384)

You do realize that Apple has paid out over a billion dollars to developers? I always enjoy these off the cuff statemetns about how poorly Apple Developers are treated when the simple fact is, that it is a lucrative market, which is why 3 of 4 still plan to develop for it in the immediate future. (ref: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20007010-260.html [cnet.com] )

Assuming they create a good product, they are treated very well, getting an instant distribution model that functions at break even. Not a bad deal at all.

Given the way that Apple treats 3rd party devs and the locked down phone, it would be very surprising if Apple keeps their loyalty without making a major course correction. Those dick moves like randomly rejecting applications and stealing functionality out of apps for the base system isn't really endearing them with the people they need to keep the appstore vibrant.

The simple fact is that a huge majority of apps are approved within 2 weeks. Of those that are rejected, almost unilaterally they violated the developer agreement, and then complain about it after the fact. Google Voice was a good example. At the time it was developed, it offered unlimited texting, which duplicated core functionality, which of course is listed in black in white the agreement.

I know it's popular to love to hate Apple lately, but the simple fact is that the majority of apps are rejected because the developer took a chance and ignored the agreement. I will grant that some of these rejections seem a bit stupid.

Given that 95% percent are accepted without any issue at all, leaving only 5% of questionable apps, the argument that Apple is rejecting apps willy nilly is not exactly a good reflection of reality.

Extremely well said. Sorry to have to watch your comment get modded down by the anti-apple crowd :(

Re:woowoo (5, Insightful)

dagus2020 (1672490) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718414)

USERS paid developers over $1 billion, and Apple snatched over $300,000. Saying Apple has paid $1 billion to developers is like saying VISA has paid companies $1 zillion dollars. Nice try, Steve Jobs!

Re:woowoo (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718458)

Just like those evil retail stores. I hear they buy the product for less than they sell it!

Re:woowoo (1)

kelsey.grammer (83287) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718540)

Just like those evil retail stores. I hear they buy the product for less than they sell it!

AHAHAHAHA

Mod this up!

Re:woowoo (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718568)

I think you might have forgotten a few zeros there, otherwise I don't see your point. Apple only taking .03%? Doesn't seem that bad...

Re:woowoo (1)

AHuxley (892839) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718508)

"You do realize that Apple has paid out over a billion dollars to developers?"
Thats like getting a nice home in East Germany and a non Trabant car.
You still have no freedom to code or install a better OS. People dont "hate Apple" they are just aware Google, MS, Apple ect are building some very thick and high walls around mobile computing.
Why should we not get the same freedoms we enjoy on most desktops?

Re:woowoo (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718550)

Because it's not a desktop? Do you bemoan the lack of ability to install your own custom OS in your microwave? Android is closer to a desktop OS than iOS is. iOS is still an appliance to my thinking.

Re:woowoo (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718468)

I can't wait to write apps for the Android tablets that Google isn't going to allow to access the Marketplace, openness and freedom ftw!

Quality versus quantity? (0, Troll)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718602)

Most Android devices are more locked down than any iDevice. The ones that aren't tend to be more expensive than the equivalent iDevice. I'm actually surprised Google hasn't worked with Chinese manufacturers to make sure some cheap Android devices weren't more developer friendly. I'm not sure why these cheap devices aren't more friendly since the manufacturer isn't making any effort to benefit from the closed state of the devices.

I think Apple needs to be more clear in why they do or don't reject apps and it shouldn't be for political reasons. If there is a technical reason they should be clear on why and be open to change as the devices become more powerful or developers suggest workarounds. If there is a business reason (such as not allowing smut) they should be clear that they think it'll give the best experience for end-users. If anything though I think Apple should be more strict about maintaining quality. They need to make all apps pass a vigorous quality test that checks for stability, security, ease of use, and simply delivering what it claims to. Customers have to trust that when they buy an iOS app it won't suck.

Stealing functionality is a hard issue. If it makes the base better then they need to do it but if it's really anything novel they should compensate the app developer. Even if it's not really novel but well done they'd be foolish not to at least hire the developer. What better way to find the best people to develop iOS? Likewise they'd be stupid to crush the jailbreak community. It's much better to hire the best from the pool of developers there.

Of course for the most part none of this really matters. The more difficult it is to distribute iOS apps the better for the developers that stick to it so long as Apple maintains good sales and iDevice users remain more prone to spending money than Android users (who are actually pretty negative about paid apps). This is a good reason for maintaining strict quality controls. Users will be more willing to buy and there will be less noise in the system to keep people from finding and buying your app. It doesn't matter how easy it is to develop for Android if you're not going to make money doing it.

Re:woowoo (1)

farble1670 (803356) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718682)

Those dick moves like randomly rejecting applications and stealing functionality out of apps for the base system isn't really endearing them with the people they need to keep the appstore vibrant.

devs care about where the money is. apple wins if they can keep their app market more lucrative, regardless of what devs say they plan to do in the future.

Re:woowoo (1)

tyrione (134248) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718358)

speculation is shit. who cares...

They can speculate all they want. Meanwhile, Apple will probably expand their WWDC to > 10k developers and they'll still speculate that the majority of devs are betting on Android.

Re:woowoo (1)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718406)

speculation is shit. who cares...

True. This is a survey of developers who are already using a cross-platform development tool. How about they take the same survey of developers who are using XCode - are they considering Android as the better long term bet? What percentage of iOS developers are using cross-platform tools?

Not a surprise (5, Insightful)

TheCount22 (952106) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718066)

This is not really a surprise considering it is the only mainstream open platform not tied to any particular hardware.

That sounds about right.... (3, Interesting)

hackel (10452) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718070)

Apple users are used to paying for costly proprietary applications, so of course there is a better revenue opportunity. I just find it so disgusting that there are so many developers all of a sudden interested in making money from their code. It seems Apple is doing more to destroy the environment created by the open source community than any other company...

Re:That sounds about right.... (4, Funny)

TheKidWho (705796) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718102)

Oh no! people want to make money off of their work! That's capitalist talk, off with their heads!

Re:That sounds about right.... (-1, Flamebait)

hackel (10452) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718190)

Yes. Exactly. Fucking selfish, capitalist pigs is what they are. And why shouldn't they be, as long as we as a society allow them to continue doing this? They don't just want to make money off of their WORK, they want to make money for it once, and then make money again without doing any more work, and then continue to make money for it, over and over and OVER again without ever doing a fucking thing. People should be paid for the actual work they do, not indefinitely. It is that simple.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

maxume (22995) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718234)

So say some guy creates some simple app that saves users (in aggregate) 1 million man hours.

How big should that guys onetime payment be?

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

hackel (10452) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718260)

Depends on how long it took to write. If it took him 3 hours, and he charges $100/hour (reasonable if he's some amateur) then pay him $300. Very, very simple. If it saves 1 million man hours, then it's a net win for the human race . Yay.

Re:That sounds about right.... (3, Interesting)

Jonas the Bold (701271) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718318)

So in a ideal capitalist society, a person would be encouraged to save everyone a million man-hours because if he made something that useful he'd become rich.

In an idealized communist society, it's to each according to need and from each according to ability, so that person would be encouraged to save everyone a million man hours for no reward, but just because he has the ability.

In your idealized society, you think he should be paid based on... how many hours he worked? Your hybrid economic system removes both the altruistic motive of communism and the reward motive of capitalism.

So you've invented the worst economic system possible. Congrats!

Re:That sounds about right.... (0, Flamebait)

tool462 (677306) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718462)

Actually it sounds about like a typical gov't job. You're paid for your time, but little regard is given to quality of work produced. Pay increases are based on seniority not merit, and termination is only used for the most egregious of mistakes (i.e., they create bad press). Any innovations or improvements are driven from outside the organization, usually by an elected official or direct replacement with a private alternative.

And yes, my experiences with it do indicate it's about the worst economic system possible.

Re:That sounds about right.... (2, Insightful)

vux984 (928602) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718592)

In your idealized society, you think he should be paid based on... how many hours he worked? Your hybrid economic system removes both the altruistic motive of communism and the reward motive of capitalism.

So you've invented the worst economic system possible. Congrats!

Hmm. So when a plumber comes to fix the hot water tank, I should pay him based on how many hours he saves me heating water manually on the stove over the course of owning my home?

When a mechanic replaces a snapped timing belt he should be paid based on how many man hours he saves me walking to and from work over the next several years?

Fascinating world you want to live in.

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718614)

Are you stupid or were you dropped a lot as a child?

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

ezeri (513659) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718642)

Welcome to earth! It is indeed very fascinating!

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

vux984 (928602) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718706)

Except I pay both the mechanic and the plumber by the hour, or even a fixed job rate. This correlates much closer with the time it will take them to complete the job than than with an "amount of man-hours they have saved humanity".

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

maxume (22995) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718662)

You should pay him a price that is mostly in line with competitive plumbing offers.

Re:That sounds about right.... (2, Interesting)

AnonymousClown (1788472) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718396)

. If it saves 1 million man hours, then it's a net win for the human race . Yay.

I read an article recently that basically blames IT for the destruction of the middle class.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

larry bagina (561269) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718444)

Awesome! I spent all last year, 12 hours a day, working on my app. It's not done yet, but that's not really the point. I haven't received my $438,000 check yet, where is it?

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718482)

Feel free to follow this economic philosophy if you wish.

Now, since I'm a free person, I can follow something different, right? Well, I'll just offer this software that I wrote for people. I don't want one person to copy it, so I'll make it a condition of sale that they can't share the software -- just one per person, please! After all, I'm a free person, and I can make whatever conditions I want, right? If they don't want it, they don't buy it, right?

And, they, being free people, are free to enter into this contract, if they want. If they don't want to, they don't have to -- heck, I'm not forcing anyone.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

Americano (920576) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718612)

So by this logic, if he wants to have a stable income, he should produce a really shit program that will save nobody any time, but that he can "continuously improve" for the rest of his life, and get paid $100 for every hour he works, resulting in something much more approaching a "net zero" for humanity?

Congratulations, you've just declared government bureaucracy your economic model of choice.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

vux984 (928602) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718696)

So by this logic, if he wants to have a stable income, he should produce a really shit program that will save nobody any time, but that he can "continuously improve" for the rest of his life, and get paid $100 for every hour he works, resulting in something much more approaching a "net zero" for humanity?

Why would anyone continue paying him to improve it for the rest of his life? If you hire a contractor to build a bathroom in your mom's basement and he does a shitty job, do you pay him more to fix it continually for the rest of his life? Or do you fire his ass and hire someone competent? I guess that pretty much blows your 'stable income by producing shit' theory out of the water.

And on that note, once you've hired a competent contractor do you compute the man hours you will save by not having to go upstairs (and perhaps even wait in line) to use the bathroom there over the course of owning the home? Or do you just pay him for his time/materials to to build the bathroom?

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

stuckinphp (1598797) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718240)

Pretty much. Yeah.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

WarJolt (990309) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718294)

Oh no! people want to make money off of their work! That's capitalist talk, off with their heads!

iOS loses market share and Android gains. Heres what I think is important: The invisible hand of the free market supports freedom and actually works against big companies like Apple trying to take power away from you(the consumer). You get the apps you want. Developers get to create apps they want. Only Apple loses.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

TheKidWho (705796) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718308)

What the heck are you talking about? Did you even read the GP?

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

tool462 (677306) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718296)

It's why they call the death penalty "capital punishment".

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

the_humeister (922869) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718230)

As much as I don't like Apple, your comment seems a little off. First of all, you're admonishing developers for actually wanting to get paid? I hope you realize things like food and housing aren't free. Second of all, Apple's environment never really had a significant open source community of its own. Most of it is just spill over from the regular open source community.

Re:That sounds about right.... (1)

mjwx (966435) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718244)

Apple users are used to paying for costly proprietary applications, so of course there is a better revenue opportunity.

Revenue != Profit, important lesson there. You need to make sure that you've made more money then you've spent.

If you've marketed a product, it needs to meet a release date. With Apple you cant control things like that, they have obscure rules, bad days and a myriad of other strange reasons why your application can be rejected, if you're going to put money into development, you at least want some assurance about release. But right now, money is starting to head towards Android because Android is selling 200,000 units a day and 75% of iphone4 owners had Iphone 3G/S's.

I just find it so disgusting that there are so many developers all of a sudden interested in making money from their code.

Everyone's got to eat. Yes I dislike the "monetising" that seems to be going on as well but I cant change that fact people need money. It's only a matter of time before the big boys move in and take over the app store, then it's back to BAU (which means coding for a weekly paycheck from someone else who makes the profit).

It seems Apple is doing more to destroy the environment created by the open source community than any other company...

Cue the fanboys saying otherwise... I agree with you, Apple seems to have a distinctly anti-OSS agenda. To add insult to injury, almost all their products use OSS as a base except they use BSD licenses rather then GPL so they dont have to contribute back.

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718356)

Android may have a bigger adoption rate, but Android users are mostly not willing to pay for apps.

That, and the fact that every phone has its own quirks, like all the different firmwares which create a patchwork situation at best ... all that creates a place where I, as a developer, do not want to earn my money, despite being an OSS advocate.

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718724)

>> To add insult to injury, almost all their products use OSS as a base except they use BSD licenses rather then GPL so they dont have to contribute back.

But they do contribute back, even though you claim they don't have to. Where do you think WebKit came from? Who supports CUPS?
Apple's products use and promote open standards and did so long before it was kewl.
There are a number of contributions from Apple that are in daily use by OSS devs averywhere.

Re:That sounds about right.... (2, Informative)

Karlt1 (231423) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718756)

If you've marketed a product, it needs to meet a release date. With Apple you cant control things like that, they have obscure rules, bad days and a myriad of other strange reasons why your application can be rejected, if you're going to put money into development, you at least want some assurance about release. But right now, money is starting to head towards Android because Android is selling 200,000 units a day and 75% of iphone4 owners had Iphone 3G/S's.

Android app store is 2% of Apple's:

http://larvalabs.com/blog/android/android-market-payouts-total-2-of-app-stores-1b/ [larvalabs.com]

Half of iPhone users buy at least one app per month. Only 21% of Android users

http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/story/admob-half-iphone-users-buy-paid-apps-every-month/2010-02-25 [fiercemobilecontent.com]

Re:That sounds about right.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718334)

Apple users are used to paying for costly proprietary applications, so of course there is a better revenue opportunity. I just find it so disgusting that there are so many developers all of a sudden interested in making money from their code. It seems Apple is doing more to destroy the environment created by the open source community than any other company...

shame on us for paying for our bills

Re:That sounds about right.... (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718560)

The "community" can KMA, I write code to make money.

This just in... (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718080)

35% of mobile application developers are FUCKING RETARDS.

Re:This just in... (1)

WrongSizeGlass (838941) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718426)

35% of mobile application developers are FUCKING RETARDS.

Did your survey determine which 35%?

Sampling bias? (5, Insightful)

RyuuzakiTetsuya (195424) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718086)

So among cross platform developers, just over half said one platform was better than another.

Talk about sampling bias. This just in, 70% of AppleInsider users think iOS is great, and 99% of lactose intolerant people think Ice Cream suck

big deal.

Bitter iFanboy Tears. Love It! (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718200)

Cry over your Starbucks Hipster Douchebags.

Enjoy your inevitable market-share irrelevance. Again!

LOL

Re:Bitter iFanboy Tears. Love It! (1)

AnonymousClown (1788472) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718428)

Cry over your Starbucks Hipster Douchebags.

Enjoy your inevitable market-share irrelevance. Again!

LOL

Ah Dude. You're telling people that do not want to be mainstream that they're products will never be mainstream.

Do you also go onto white supremacist websites and post

"You'll never be Black! Suck it Whitey!" ?

Re:Bitter iFanboy Tears. Love It! (0, Flamebait)

Americano (920576) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718686)

You know what's funny? With all this rush to market with tablets, everybody's saying "GOOGLE" is going to take on Apple. Sorry, but it's "Samsung," "HTC," "RIM," "Dell," and the other hardware manufacturers that are going to take on Apple, using their own customized versions of "GOOGLE'S" OS, which will be locked down and as proprietary and restricted as the HARDWARE makers and their CARRIER partners can make it. And that assumes that Google opens up the Marketplace for tablets, as well, instead of restricting them from it.

Which means that Android developers will be writing apps to a dog's dinner of 15-20 different screen sizes & resolutions, hardware capabilities, and UI variants, all of which will probably be locked down and network-locked to various carriers and data plan models where they're 3G. Think the maintenance burden on any useful hardware is going to get steep? I do.

So cry over your Mountain Dew, OSS douchebag.

Enjoy your inevitable market fragmentation and low user satisfaction ratings. Again!

LOL

Re:Sampling bias? (1)

maxume (22995) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718254)

Actually, I would guess that lactose intolerant people enjoy eating ice cream at about the same rate as the general population.

What they don't like is the after effects.

Re:Sampling bias? (1)

DeadboltX (751907) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718408)

This is a shout out for the 1% of lactose intolerant people who think Ice Cream rocks despite the horrible things it does to their insides.

Re:Sampling bias? (2, Funny)

Cruciform (42896) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718528)

It's not so much the horrible things it does to their insides, as the horrible things experienced on the outside.
Like:
Slow elevators.
Rooms with poor ventilation.
Single ply industrial-grade toilet paper.

Re:Sampling bias? (2, Insightful)

AugstWest (79042) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718476)

So their whole sample for this survey is a small group of users who are *already* using a cross-platform compiler.

Far from newsworthy this is misleading and bogus. Thanks, Slashdot.

You're Absolutely Right (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718594)

It is obviously Sampling Bias.

And not:

* The fact that you have to go out and buy an otherwise useless and overpriced computer just to development for the iPhone

* The fact that you have to use a niche language no one other than Apple uses instead of industry standard Java

* The fact that your apps are at the whim of nameless Apple bureaucrats who have absolute control over when or if your app ever is made available to the market

* The fact that you get to work on the leading edge / most advanced cellphone OS on the market that is getting upgraded at an incredible rate compared to the outdated Apple cellphone OS

* The fact that you have a gigantic number of devices to select from instead of a single defectively designed one from Apple

* The fact that Android is roughly doubling its growth rate ever quarter and is now the top selling cellphone OS at a rate that was around 72 million devices a year months ago and certainly much higher now instead of Apple's iPhone which has lost marketshare to Android for the second straight quarter

Yeah, it's gotta be 'sampling error'...

Re:Sampling bias? (4, Interesting)

phantomfive (622387) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718674)

Actually I'm pretty surprised they could find 2,300 developers who use Appcelerator's Titanium cross-platform compiler at all. Did they make answering the poll questions a part of installing the software? And does this whole story sound like a slashvertizement to anyone else?

Honestly I like Android, and I like iOS, but the GUI layout models are so different, I can't imagine a single system working well for both. Does anyone have experience with it?

Re:Sampling bias? (1)

shird (566377) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718708)

There is also the 6% that chose something else, perhaps blackberry. So it wasn't a choice between two platforms.

"Just over half said one was better than the other" suggests a ratio of something like 51% to 49%. However, it is 59% to 35%, which is pretty significant.

Apple's market is dynamic but small. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718088)

While Apple's market is very dynamic, and quick to adopt new products (even when very expensive), it is unfortunately a very small market overall. It's estimated that roughly one in ten people are homosexuals, and only a small number of those people are hipsters with trust funds. So well over 90% of the population will have absolutely no interest in buying Apple's products.

We've seen this trend with most of their other offerings. Mac OS X has never managed to exceed around 2% to 3% of the consumer personal computer market (that is, we're not even counting large corporate purchases). It's just how Apple's markets work.

Re:Apple's market is dynamic but small. (1)

RyuuzakiTetsuya (195424) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718202)

You're off by a little.

More like 8 percent. [maclife.com]

When you consider that there are hundreds of OEMs, 8 percent of the market is a big hairy deal.

Re:Apple's market is dynamic but small. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718518)

And we're supposed to trust numbers from a site called "Mac Life"? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Re:Apple's market is dynamic but small. (1)

the_humeister (922869) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718342)

Apple was as high as +20% of the computer market back in the 1980s.

Re:Apple's market is dynamic but small. (1)

Americano (920576) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718702)

It's just how Apple's markets work.

Right, highly profitable markets, with the highest customer satisfaction ratings in the industry. It's just how Apple's markets work!

I know you're trolling, but you realize that owning a huge percentage of a market while barely being able to make a profit is a problem... right? I'm looking at you, Nokia.

I wish I had a business that was as irrelevant and unsuccessful as Apple's.

Good to know... (0, Offtopic)

crow_t_robot (528562) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718090)

...considering that I just bought this Droid X that I'm posting from :)

Asking The Undecided? (4, Insightful)

rsmith-mac (639075) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718094)

Perhaps I'm missing something, but isn't this effectively a survey of people who are undecided? After all, isn't that why they're using a cross-platform kit rather than writing right to Android/iOS?

I would think looking at the developers who have firmly committed themselves to a platform as a better metric. The uncommitted developers have nothing to lose.

Re:Asking The Undecided? (1)

AllInOne (236413) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718744)

Ding ding. Give that man a prize!

And more... Not only is this is survey of the folks who have shown themselves to be undecided (surprise! survey says: folks are undecided) but it is also commissioned by other folks who are creating tools for the undecided. Should we be surprised when they present a survey that conforms to their worldview?

Re:Asking The Undecided? (1)

shird (566377) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718750)

The uncommitted have the opportunity to choose the best option without baggage of prior commitment.

When you are talking about 'long term future' I don't think it is wise to poll people that have committed to a platform previously, you are better off polling people that are betting on the future.

Cost (1)

TheCount22 (952106) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718112)

Android will be more popular in the long run for one simple reason. Cost...

Re:Cost (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718394)

Except that Android doesn't have a cost advantage!

PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

Citizen of Earth (569446) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718130)

This will play out like the PC clone wars. The vertically integrated and expensive manufacturer will be buried by the clones and their common OS.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (4, Insightful)

TheKidWho (705796) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718152)

Apple obviously never thought of that.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

nurb432 (527695) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718198)

Right, and that attitude has really killed Apple's computer products.. Oh wait, perhaps not. :)

There is a place for both ideals in this world.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

AnonymousClown (1788472) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718298)

Yeah, the attitude was killing it. They were barely making money. What rescued Apple was its foray into electronic consumer lifestyle devices - iPod, iTouch, iPad and the services supporting those devices. Apple couldn't last as just a computer company - hence it's subtle name change from "Apple Computer, Inc" to "Apple, Inc".

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1, Flamebait)

mjwx (966435) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718330)

Right, and that attitude has really killed Apple's computer products.. Oh wait, perhaps not. :)

Perhaps we forget our history, the now defunct Apple Computers?

Apple Inc is making the same mistakes as Apple Computers, Apple Computers made three big mistakes:
1. Made something that was expensive and not any better then its competitors, they called it the Lisa and was built because one man dictated how everything should work.
2. Isolated their core audience, the Lisa got hackers offside, so they switched to the new IBM offerings and businesses went with them.
3. Sued Microsoft using a dubious suit when they could not compete.

Now Apple Inc made mistake #1 already, they learned from mistake number #2 but picked the wrong audience, the "in" crowd are a fickle bunch which will change their minds as soon as the next big thing(TM) comes along and they've thrown themselves head first into #3 by suing HTC. This last reason says it all, Apple is unable to compete with other manufacturers so they are suing them to prevent anyone else from getting a competitive advantage and ultimately its a losing battle as 1. HTC is Taiwanese and can tell Apple and US laws to sod off (Europe, Asia and China are larger markets then the US) and 2. Apple will have to sue everyone in the end.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

farnsworth (558449) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718770)

Right, and that attitude has really killed Apple's computer products.. Oh wait, perhaps not. :)

Perhaps we forget our history, the now defunct Apple Computers? Apple Inc is making the same mistakes as Apple Computers, Apple Computers made three big mistakes: 1. Made something that was expensive and not any better then its competitors, they called it the Lisa and was built because one man dictated how everything should work. 2. Isolated their core audience, the Lisa got hackers offside, so they switched to the new IBM offerings and businesses went with them. 3. Sued Microsoft using a dubious suit when they could not compete. Now Apple Inc made mistake #1 already, they learned from mistake number #2 but picked the wrong audience, the "in" crowd are a fickle bunch which will change their minds as soon as the next big thing(TM) comes along and they've thrown themselves head first into #3 by suing HTC. This last reason says it all, Apple is unable to compete with other manufacturers so they are suing them to prevent anyone else from getting a competitive advantage and ultimately its a losing battle as 1. HTC is Taiwanese and can tell Apple and US laws to sod off (Europe, Asia and China are larger markets then the US) and 2. Apple will have to sue everyone in the end.

I have no idea what you are talking about. 1) There is essentially no competition in the iPod thouch/iPad market. There is the dell streak, which is more expensive than the iPad, and there are a bunch of crappy andriod mp3 players. Nothing else is shipping. The HP Slate looks like a travesty (It has a "ctrl-alt-delete" hardware button!). The Blackberry PlayBook won't be released for a long time, and while it looks pretty good, they don't mention battery life at all. And it has no 3g/etc radio at all. And it has no SDK outside of Webkit and Flash. My bet is that PlayBook will cost more than the iPad too, but we'll see. The iPhone is expensive, but it's hard to argue that it's not any better than other stuff on the market. It's probably worse in some narrow ways, but on the whole, the iPhone 4 is not worse than everything else out there. Not by a mile.

2) What is this "in" crowd you speak of? People I know who have Apple stuff include a 70 year old grandmother who loves her iPad (and couldn't work a Dell PC to save her life), a knucklehead MBA type who replaced his blackberry with an iPhone, and most of the people I know who develop software. Sure, I'm certain there are a lot of iPhones in Williamsburg, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that Apple is selling to a niche group of hipsters with berets or fixies. Apple makes incredibly nice devices that anyone from a four-year-old to a hundred-year-old can use and not feel like an idiot. And they sell hundreds of millions of them.

3) I can't really comment on this, because I think the field is changing so rapidly and I guess I choose to not really care. I hate software patents, and I realize that Apple plays it's cards pretty aggressively in this subject. I'm not smart enough to understand what Apple's multi-touch patent is about, but there are other multi-touch devices out there. What, specifically, are you referring to here?

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

jpmorgan (517966) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718530)

I know you're being facetious, but notice Apple's recent attempt to prevent anyone from developing for iOS with cross-platform middleware or any non-Apple tools.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718158)

If that was the case then windows mobile would have already won.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (1)

The_mad_linguist (1019680) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718188)

The shroud of the android has fallen. Begun, the Clone War has.

Re:PC Clone Wars Redux (0, Troll)

samkass (174571) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718672)

This will play out like the PC clone wars. The vertically integrated and expensive manufacturer will be buried by the clones and their common OS.

"Expensive"? Apple has the best economies of scale in the industry. No one can make an iPhone, iPod Touch or an iPad as cheaply as Apple. They managed to transition their component supplier pipelines nicely from iPods to iPhones, and have long-term contracts for flash memory, LCD screens, batteries, and the myriad other components that make up one of these things. Apple is in the driver's seat and is selling everything their manufacturing partners can make at a nice markup.

As for this survey, it's a very skewed sample and even so it says that iOS is the best way to make money and has the best short-term prospects. As long as Apple keeps always having the best short-term prospects and Android the long-term prospects, year after year, Apple will be okay.

Sampling bias. (1)

chaboud (231590) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718162)

Now I'm an android user, and I'm registered to dev on both iOS and Android (with pet projects for each), but the set sampled in this survey is anything but statistically sound.

Not Android (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718214)

Android ports of our existing iOS apps are unlikely, at least until the NDK is complete and native apps allowed.

Porting once to Clutter via the C API would be the preferable route, assuming it's as widely supported as it deserves to be. Google are including clutter in their Chromium OS so there's hope for the future even if Android and it's Dalvik VM continue to suck.

No One Gives A Shit (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718274)

LOL! You actually think anyone gives a fuck about your iPhone apps???

Get a clue dipshit.

Also (1)

oldhack (1037484) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718228)

I took a poll among the neighborhood wooofers. The overwhelming consensus is that cats are bad news, good-for-nothing waste of cat food.

translation (1)

thrillseeker (518224) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718272)

with 76% tagging Apple's operating system as the best revenue opportunity

translation: where you can even sell an app that does nothing but make fart sounds

Re:translation (1)

cyfer2000 (548592) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718680)

"59% said that Android had the 'best long-term outlook,'"

translation: 59% out of the already poor sample pool have not made a profit on Android market yet. Entrance barrier too low, too much competition between developers, too high customer bargaining power, too much bargaining power from supplier. Every one is still dreaming the pie becomes larger and larger.

Unfortunately... (1)

thestudio_bob (894258) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718282)

Unfortunately, it doesn't have anything to do with what developers WANT to do or WHERE they prefer to program, because at the end of the day (for most developers) it all boils down to making some sort of income on the work they do. To do this they have to go where the customers are spending money on their apps and/or where the customers are viewing their ads.

Instead of believing articles like this, I think it's wiser to find a particular niche thats lacking on a mobile device or find something that can be implemented better and create it. If your app fulfills either of these scenerios, then you will make a profit.

It's all about the per user spend up (2, Interesting)

w0mprat (1317953) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718290)

I think Apples walled garden approach may result in more per-user spend. But that's about it. A many times larger user base, I don't see Android's market share plateauing until it is many times that of iOS. It always makes sense to target the larger user base as a starting point (but only as a crude rule of thumb of course). This is a repeat of the Mac vs PC era and again Apple is just to selfish.

However, this time the OS competing with the Apple camp is *really good* and Android is so far ahead of everything it's not funny. Apple is being forced to eat humble pie and add features that Android pioneered and thus demonstrated Apple was wrong about, it's gotta be a sign.

Oh and the Android development community is fscking awesome.

Re:It's all about the per user spend up (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 4 years ago | (#33718730)

Oh and the Android development community is fscking awesome.

I'm sorry, I couldn't understand a thing you said. Could you try again, without the Android community's cock in your mouth?

Go ahead and finish the blowjob, we'll wait.

The future: jqTouch & PhoneGap (1)

Eamorr (1803236) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718416)

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned jqTouch. When coupled with phoneGap, you get an incredibly powerful *platform independent* combination. This is why the web was developed. People who try to force you to exchange free information through proprietary technology that you must pay to use should be shunned.

Re:The future: jqTouch & PhoneGap (1)

Eamorr (1803236) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718460)

I should also add, that your HTML/CSS is converted to *native* code.

Shared libraries are a big key (3, Interesting)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718434)

The biggest PITA isn't the whole app store process etc. its the fact that developers cannot:
a)You cannot make your own dynamic libraries, only static ones(though the OS obviously supports it, you can include any of Apple's own dyilibs in your project) I don't need to go into why dynamic linking is much better than static....
b)There really isn't a clean way to talk between applications. You can send files, but it's really a drop box, I can COPY(not link!) something into another apps area, but after that the file is no longer mine. So if I want to send something to another app to process and then get it back to do some processing by my application I have to hope the app tells me about the changes, and considering the app may not even know I exist(nor should it, thats the beauty of decoupling), thats a lot to ask.

I can *sort* of understand 1 from a performance standpoint, if you allow user created dynamic libraries every time the application is swapped out of memory you have to find which dynamic libraries it uses, make sure nobody else is using them, then unload them. However as memory increases the rationale behind needing to constantly load/unload them starts to disappear.....

Maybe Apple will change it's tune, but long term I think you will be able to do more interesting things with Android because it allows for the creation of dynamic libraries and inter-application communication.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... (1)

east coast (590680) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718522)

Any application worth it's bandwidth is going to go cross platform in time. Android has a lot of ground to cover and if the tablets get any real marketshare it will take off. I don't need a culture with only one or two platforms. This isn't 1982 where the home PC market had serious restrictions based on platform.

Re:I've said it before and I'll say it again... (1)

Microlith (54737) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718588)

This isn't 1982 where the home PC market had serious restrictions based on platform.

Yes it is. We've moved away from that and now with mobile devices we're moving back towards it.

Well, I would. (1)

MrCrassic (994046) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718646)

When you're on the top, the only way to go is down. While iOS isn't the zenith of smartphone computing worldwide (Nokia is), it has a lion's share of the market and is expanding tremendously daily. The only problem is that people are fickle, especially when it comes to electronics, and with Android catching up quicker by the quarter, Apple's long-term strategy is definitely a good bet to hold on to.

Now, Apple isn't going to disappear in the smartphone space any time soon. It would have to do something incredibly stupid, or get trumped by something incredibly and undeniably better (iPhone 4 is really tough to beat), for that to happen. However, Android certainly has the potential to become the de facto alternative mobile platform, which is just as good with a market as wide as this. If they can make significant inroads into RIM and Nokia's space while putting Windows Mobile out of the picture for good (which they are certainly capable of), there's no doubt on my mind that this will happen. As an added bonus, it's barrier to entry for application development is pretty low and very cross-applicable (at least in the most trivial sense -- Java is used in so many other places whereas Objective-C is not).

Flamebait Much? (2)

macs4all (973270) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718676)

As someone else said on here a few days ago, is it possible to have an entire article rated as Flamebait?

Shouldn't some of the 100k apple devs be included (3, Insightful)

grapeape (137008) | more than 4 years ago | (#33718768)

Wow im shocked, developers that are trying to cater to both and likely started on the android hope android wins. I have no leanings either way, imho they both have their pluses and minuses but if your going to do a survey should people that are actively involved in a platforms development beyond a cross compiler be at least sampled? This reminds me of the AdMob survey back in march that claimed 70% of iPhone developers were jumping ship while surveying only 108 hand picked participants, oddly enough it was the same week that Apple announced it had passed 100,000 licensed developers. I've been dabbling with android itself, but frankly until they can get their act together (3-4 different versions in the wild, poor upgrade paths from oem's, google denying marketplace to non-phone devices) I really don't think Apple has much to worry about. Yes Apple is draconian as hell in their licensing, contracts and at least IMHO rather greedy on the profit sharing but at least there is some organization and direction.

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