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Solar Dynamo Still Anemic, Magnetism and UV Lax

timothy posted more than 3 years ago | from the hog-belly-futures-slack dept.

Space 156

radioweather writes "While we are well along into solar cycle 24, there remains a significant gap between the predictions of where we should be, and where we actually are in the progression of the cycle. Recently, the sun went spotless again, and the solar Ap geomagnetic index, an indicator of the solar magneto, hit zero. It is something you really don't expect to see this far along into the cycle. In other solar news, scientists monitoring the SORCE solar satellite have found that solar ultraviolet emissions have dropped significantly in the past few years. The Solar Irradiance Monitor on the satellite 'suggests that ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 — by ten times as much as the total irradiance did — while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall.'"

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oh noes! (1)

tomalok (33171) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658340)

first step to solar fail?

Re:oh noes! (4, Interesting)

jmorris42 (1458) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658360)

Could be. We know Mr. Sun can take long naps. And the one time we know for sure it happened was also known as the Little Ice Age.

Don't go placing bets yet but hedging against it might be a prudent thing.

Re:oh noes! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658494)

Everyone knows this is caused by people driving their SUV's and destroying the environment. Save the Sun! Go green today!

Re:oh noes! (2)

Urkki (668283) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658588)

Everyone knows this is caused by people driving their SUV's and destroying the environment. Save the Sun! Go green today!

No no, SUV drivers are the saviors of future tropical paradise. Without their valiant effort, we would have no hope. But as we see this year, despite the Ancient Enemy, the feared Day Star trying to thwart the future tropical paradise, like TFA describes, this year was still record warm.

I can't wait for the tropical paradise to come true. It's -13 F outside now, when it should be 77 F.

Re:oh noes! (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658720)

Obviously you're joking, but the real evidence for the Sun getting weaker due to CO2 is just as good as the evidence for the earth heating up due to CO2. There's a correlation there (as we drive more, the sun gets weaker), and correlation is enough for scientists to keep reeling in grant money (you know what they say, "publish or perish").

Re:oh noes! (5, Funny)

GrumblyStuff (870046) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658766)

Exactly. Most people think that humans naturally wake in the morning and sleep at night but that only came about during the 1900s. It was all part of FDR's socialist alien agenda to chill the planet by encouraging people to work during the day and thus arriving at work in the morning. Notice that the rise of the sun slows after the morning commute and falls in conjunction with the evening return. Coincidence? I think not.

Re:oh noes! (1)

Viol8 (599362) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658824)

Nice one :) If I had mods points you'd have got one.

Re:oh noes! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658872)

I'm not suggesting some sort of massive conspiracy, just that scientists have bills to pay too.

Re:oh noes! (2)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659844)

Amusingly you're kind of right, but it happened a long time before 1900. It used to be standard to wake up in the middle of the night. Probably a survival mechanism from the hunter-gatherer phase, a lot of characteristics from that period probably have little to no effect on evolution so we retain them. Some people still do it.

Re:oh noes! (1)

ikkonoishi (674762) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658538)

Or maybe Mz. Sun is expecting.

Re:oh noes! (1)

Dachannien (617929) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658834)

Don't go placing bets yet but hedging against it might be a prudent thing.

I thought we already were!

Re:oh noes! (0)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659042)

You can't get there from here...

(go listen to some FST on youtube, Bozo. No, not the Bozos album again. Try to keep up)

Re:oh noes! (0)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658932)

lol
Howz them computer simulations comin'?
Is it hot/cold enough yet?
Ooh, sap!

Re:oh noes! (1)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658962)

it's cold out.
sunspots would predict that.
are sunspots a good predictor?
dunno, but it beats chicken little, at least in terms of track record.

(thank gawd for /.)
the Parent is a sane man.
and i hate seeing the Left in a Crazy pissing match with the Right. Sometimes both sides piss grey, and then Green comes along and cracks me up, though.

Hey.
How are the Ozarks? They still got signs that read "the law ends here"?

Nah, buggershit on that.
I need my giganto urban pipe and my astraweb choo-choo.

Re:oh noes! (1)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659066)

Mr. Key?
Blackadder?
Oh, forgettaboutit.
forgettaboutitforgettaboutitforgettaboutit.
Seeya, fellow Seekers!
Now back to the funway, which is already in progress.

Re:oh noes! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660418)

Oh, it's just the Sun reacting to the secret government regulations. The Republicans are already working to remove the interference so that the hedging and the resulting bubbling may continue.

Corpse student (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658374)

If I could make a better corpse student, I could pop out an answer as to why this is unacceptable!

Re:oh noes! (3, Funny)

WoRLoKKeD (1142351) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658416)

QUICK!

Someone call Cillian Murphy!

Re:oh noes! (1)

Ennui-DH (1459049) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658680)

How is the IRA going to help?

It is because of global warming (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658438)

We have to do something about that.

Re:oh noes! (5, Funny)

The_mad_linguist (1019680) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658454)

Don't worry, congress recently declared it Too Big To Fail

Re:oh noes! (1)

slick7 (1703596) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658844)

Don't worry, congress recently declared it Too Big To Fail

Were they calculating in the English system or the Metric system?
Errors like this never happen.

Re:oh noes! (1)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658972)

same back at your computer chair.
HA!

Re:oh noes! (1)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659008)

That was fuckin' golden.

OH NOES (1)

sakdoctor (1087155) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658738)

Peak solar!

Re:OH NOES (1)

thijsh (910751) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659342)

Yeah, that's what we get for putting up so many solar panels in recent years, notice how this coincides with the graphs... How can we keep tapping the suns energy without thinking about mother earth and father sun... We are doomed! Donate now, and we *might* be able to prevent it (and take full credit for it), but if we can't it's your fault for not donating enough!!! Act now because peak solar is a proven fact, we have some scientists saying something to back it up!

Sooo Booooring. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658344)

I'm a nerd and all and I see it's all sciency, but this reads like a journal entry from the world's most boring man.

Re:Sooo Booooring. (2)

masterwit (1800118) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658372)

I'm a nerd

Now are you? I actually found this interesting! Plus that is why we have comments...to explain this (later on...) to the rest of us. Moderation is gold.

You want something recent and boring [eurekalert.org] ?

Re:Sooo Booooring. (1)

hvm2hvm (1208954) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659130)

Hehe, the next paper in the series will probably be "lungs have the perfect construction for retaining enough oxygen that we can go about our daily lives but not too much such that our cells will burn out".

Re:Sooo Booooring. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658524)

shouldn't you be watching x-factor or some other lobotomised bullshit rather than posting here? happy xmas love and xx'es!

Re:Sooo Booooring. (1)

walshy007 (906710) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658628)

probably because it doesn't have any effect on you directly that you care about

This is important for people who refract HF radio waves off the ionosphere back to earth because the amount of UV radiation determines the thickness of the layers of the ionosphere which determines what frequencies refract back and which don't.

Re:Sooo Booooring. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34659072)

You'll have to forgive him - he came here because someone on /b/ told him /. was cool and he's still wondering where all the gay porn is ...

Re:Sooo Booooring. (2)

clarkkent09 (1104833) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658708)

I'm a nerd and all and I see it's all sciency, but this reads like a journal entry from the world's most boring man.
 
I agree. After reading the summary a couple of times all I am sure of is that the next X-Men movie will be set on the Sun, but the plot seems very confusing.

Sharp rise? (2, Interesting)

sjwt (161428) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658350)

Is it just me, or dose it seem the curve for the prediction coming out, shows a faster return then the fall coming in?

A longer lower end may be followed by a slow return too.

Re:Sharp rise? (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658436)

It is just you, about to dose and typing as you fade away. Don't worry, except for the headache, all will be just fine tomorrow.

Re:Sharp rise? (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658468)

The cycles are asymmetric, with stronger cycles being more asymmetric. A slow rise suggests a not so asymmetric cycle which will therefore be weaker.

Re:Sharp rise? (-1, Flamebait)

slick7 (1703596) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658912)

Is it just me, or dose it seem the curve for the prediction coming out, shows a faster return then the fall coming in?

A longer lower end may be followed by a slow return too.

Are your calculations based on the Gregorian calendar or the Mayan calendar?
Does the government have any reason to lie?
If my aunt had a dick, she would be my uncle.

OhNos! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658412)

Can we blame this on bush or al gore?

*rabble rabble rabble*

Nothing to worry about (3, Funny)

Metabolife (961249) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658418)

It may be low now, but the sun is expect to reach peak intensity in 2012...

Re:Nothing to worry about (1)

siddesu (698447) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658442)

Is the Earth core going to stop then as well? And by 2012 you mean December 2012, right?

Re:Nothing to worry about (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658568)

December 31st, at 23:59:59.

Re:Nothing to worry about (1)

Regnad2k7 (1045284) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659024)

i'm already there.

oh, no.

i'm on FIRE!

Looks fuckin' golden to me.

Eureka! (3, Funny)

Thanshin (1188877) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658434)

When comparing the actual results to the predictions, the brief analysis given by the lead investigator Dr. Sunny M. Sparks was:

"The fuck?!"

Assestion to which the closer grad student, not fully comprehending the ramifications of such discovery, replied:

"Not my fault! I swear! ... It was Jackson! He was playing WoW in the lab computer not two days ago."

Natural outcome (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658462)

We are doomed! (TM)

(well, we are eventually)

Solar Cycle (1)

pgn674 (995941) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658472)

While we are well along into solar cycle 24, there remains a significant gap between the predictions of where we should be, and where we actually are in the progression of the cycle.

It took me a while to figure out what "solar cycle" meant. I thought it was talking about the 24th day of December. Then with all that talk of predictions of where we are in respect to the day, I had no idea what was going on.

Re:Solar Cycle (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658498)

tnks for teh valubal new infos

Research Cycle (-1, Troll)

drmofe (523606) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658514)

Solar scientists well-placed to benefit:
  1. 1. Area of research that still lacks full understanding of complex phenomena.
  2. 2. Underfunded area of research.
  3. 3. Backlash against proponents of AGW due to harsh Northern Hemisphere winter.
  4. 4. ???
  5. 5. Research Grants!!!

Why Thinking (0, Offtopic)

williams457 (1964730) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658518)

It seems first stage and nature has a lot of changes, nobody day what will be result. Scented candles [rezcandles.com]

The pilot light's gone out (1)

advocate_one (662832) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658642)

NASA needs some gas certified plumbing engineers to send out to service the boiler...

This explains a lot (1)

Glubbdrubb (1450653) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658652)

Like why I can't seem to be able to tan at all...

Re:This explains a lot (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658780)

The UV light coming from the fluro in your mothers basement isn't sufficient to create a tan, contrary to popular belief.

Re:This explains a lot (1)

Khyber (864651) | more than 3 years ago | (#34662226)

It is if you're using T5HO Reptile bulbs, and not the shit T12 6500K bulbs.

Relax (1)

Anubis IV (1279820) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658794)

The sun's just doing its part to slow global warming.

Re:Relax (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34658820)

Could you tell it to stop doing it. It is -26C and I could use some Global Warming right now...

Re:Relax (1)

riverat1 (1048260) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660886)

And yet in Nuuk, Greenland yesterday they had a high of 37 F, 16 F above average. While you've been freezing Arctic sea ice is still melting in some areas. Highly unusual for this time of year.

Re:Relax ... there's a correlation (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34659040)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn Piers Corbyn is a weather forecaster in Britain who uses solar activity and the phases of the moon to predict weather. His long range forecasts are somewhat more accurate than those of the UK Met Office (not hard, they got fired by the BBC).

Corbyn points out that the solar activity and moon phase are about the same as they were 132 years ago and the weather is about the same.

Re:Relax ... there's a correlation (0)

tonique (1176513) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659290)

Piers Corbyn is a weather forecaster in Britain who uses solar activity and the phases of the moon to predict weather. His long range forecasts are somewhat more accurate than those of the UK Met Office

Now, you really need to have something to quantify that statement, preferably with clear criteria how to assess accuracy of predictions. You can't trust your memory on things like this: you're likely to remember only recent things -- with bias.

PLASMA ENERGY PHYSICS u shit heads (1)

Latinhypercube (935707) | more than 3 years ago | (#34658944)

Gravity physics does not explain the universe. How the fuck is solar energy higher further away from the sun's surface ? Because the sun is connected by plasma to other stars.

Re:PLASMA ENERGY PHYSICS u shit heads (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34659278)

But how do plasma physics explain superparamagnetism?

still waiting to use... (1)

bball99 (232214) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659046)

a brand new-in-the-box 10-meter HF/FM transceiver purchased after Cycle 23...

25 watts and work the world!

Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Glock27 (446276) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659232)

This cycle is matching up very nicely (along with the previous two cycles actually) with the beginning of the Dalton Minimum, which produced sharply colder temperatures around the globe.

Here's a relevant article. [deathby1000papercuts.com]

Corbyn’s prediction:
Piers Corbyn believes that the last three winters could be the harbinger of a mini ice age that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be colder than at any time in the last 200 years. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.

So, there's no immediacy to global warming, we have time to get it right - rather than wrecking our economy for most likely no reason.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (2)

Plekto (1018050) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659718)

Isn't this a great thing, though? I'd think that a significantly lower output would give our planet's defenses a bit of a breather to possibly recharge. And, to be honest, the planet will be fine. CO2 levels are extremely low compared to past levels. The planet was just fine back then when it was at 8-10X the current levels, even. Sure, the ice caps might melt a bit, and you probably should wear more sunscreen, but that's about it until the next Ice Age that we are heading into will get started. Even that will be survivable - just ask the people in Moscow if they are planning to evacuate because of the cold.

Global warming is happening. And so what? The planet will be fine and life will go on.

A link about historic CO2 levels:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png [wikipedia.org]
Looks horrible, correct? All it will likely do is trigger the next ice age to start in 30-50 years instead of the normal 200 or 300.

http://biocab.org/carbon_dioxide_geological_timescale.html [biocab.org]
Suddenly it's not so horrible. It takes insanely high levels to actually cause problems in terms of damaging the ecosystem. Even at our current levels, we are only at the "o" in Epoch at the far right of the graph. It seems high to us, but it's a blip in the overall picture.

What's worrying though is this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification [wikipedia.org]
This damage is man-made and potentially is something that could actually destroy our ability to live a decent life. But nobody at all is doing anything about it. (lower oxygen production, 1/6th of the world's food supply vanishing, and many other ills as a result) We'll "survive" if it gets out of control, but it won't be pretty.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

Glock27 (446276) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660728)

Isn't this a great thing, though?

Absolutely. It's good to see a rare common-sense post on /.

The ocean acidification issue is worrisome, but there is little to be done about it in the short term. It will take a breakthrough in geoengineering to reverse things given how the next fifty years is likely to shake out.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

riverat1 (1048260) | more than 3 years ago | (#34661098)

The planet was just fine back then when it was at 8-10X the current levels, even.

The Sun was considerably cooler back when CO2 levels were orders of magnitude greater than they are today. The Sun gets hotter as it ages.

All it will likely do is trigger the next ice age to start in 30-50 years instead of the normal 200 or 300.

According to scientists who study Milankovitch cycles the next glaciation of the current ice age we are in probably won't begin for at least 20,000 years.

It takes insanely high levels to actually cause problems in terms of damaging the ecosystem.

How much "damage" occurs is also a function of the rate of change. The current rate of change in CO2 levels is an order of magnitude or more greater than natural change rates.

Ocean acidification is the other half of the damage we are inflicting on the planet.

Global warming is happening. And so what? The planet will be fine and life will go on.

Yes, the planet will go on and life will still exist. But it will be a planet that is largely unrecognizable to the current population of humans.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

Plekto (1018050) | more than 3 years ago | (#34662028)

Yeah, but we're tough. I'm sure some of us will survive. I just sort of feel sorry for the unfortunate people who live in coastal areas, because it's going to get a lot worse. IIRC ~70% of the world's urban areas are near oceans or in coastal plains. Definitely time to move inland to at least 100-200ft.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

riverat1 (1048260) | more than 3 years ago | (#34662220)

Well, sea level rise is a slow motion disaster. It's not that hard to get out of the way, just expensive. The biggest danger is that sea level creeps up then along comes a hurricane and the storm surge goes far inland like what happened with Katrina along the Mississippi coast.

I don't expect the human race to go extinct any time soon from climate change. Our intelligence and adaptability will keep us going as long as some of us can find food and shelter. But population levels could be drastically lower than they are today. We may not be able to support the level of infrastructure we do today.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

PotatoFiend (1330299) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659738)

So, there's no immediacy to global warming, we have time to get it right - rather than wrecking our economy for most likely no reason.

Yes, let's jump to grand conclusions based on a single unproven assumption. Betting all life as we know it against maximizing profits is a perfectly rational course of action.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34659948)

Yes, let's jump to grand conclusions based on a single unproven assumption.

I bet you didn't even see the ironic redundancy in your post.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

Glock27 (446276) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659958)

So, there's no immediacy to global warming, we have time to get it right - rather than wrecking our economy for most likely no reason.

Yes, let's jump to grand conclusions based on a single unproven assumption. Betting all life as we know it against maximizing profits is a perfectly rational course of action.

Uh, no. No one is saying global warming will destroy "all life as we know it". In fact, the alarmists never mention the benefits of global warming for some - it's all about the negatives. Think of Canadian wheat for instance.

At any rate, global power generation could be moving much more rapidly towards less carbon emissions, if it weren't for the irrational fear of nuclear power exhibited by the eco-fringe. Market forces should also prevail as solar power actually becomes competitive with fossil fuels.

There never has been a major crisis, it's been manufactured. Even NASA is beginning to come around. [nasa.gov]

Note that that study predicts only ~1.7 C warming with CO2 doubling from current levels - and that (as always) presumes no change to solar or volcanic inputs.

Another point often discarded by the alarmists is no matter what Western society does to mitigate CO2, Russia, India, China and the "developing world" will swamp those efforts. China's CO2 output in 2030 could equal the ENTIRE WORLD's output today [wired.com] . The good news is that so far the real world has not reflected the alarmism from the GW proponents computer models. Most /. readers are familiar with the GIGO principle I'm sure.. ;-)

Merry Christmas!

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660546)

Uh, no. No one is saying global warming will destroy "all life as we know it". In fact, the alarmists never mention the benefits of global warming for some - it's all about the negatives.

Some countries can experience mild benefits under mild warming. Above 3 C or so, there mostly aren't benefits anymore, just negatives.

Think of Canadian wheat for instance.

Canada isn't going to be the new Kansas. They don't have the soil for it.

At any rate, global power generation could be moving much more rapidly towards less carbon emissions, if it weren't for the irrational fear of nuclear power exhibited by the eco-fringe.

The eco-fringe isn't what's holding back nuclear power, but it makes a convenient ideological scapegoat doesn't it?

Market forces should also prevail as solar power actually becomes competitive with fossil fuels.

If you were so pro-market, you'd advocate eliminating the negative externality from carbon by pricing it. And solar power probably isn't going to become competitive with fossil fuels anytime soon, barring lots of subsidization or a price on carbon. Even if it were competitive, that still doesn't argue against pricing carbon, since it otherwise it won't be as competitive as it should be.

There never has been a major crisis, it's been manufactured.

A libelous statement unsupported by evidence.

Even NASA is beginning to come around.

The NASA study uses a model on the low end of climate sensitivity, so it's not surprising that it comes up with a low end sensitivity. The actual new effect, from negative carbon feedback, is actually rather small -- most of the low sensitivity comes from choosing a model with weak warming. If they'd done their study with pretty much any other model, they'd get a higher sensitivity.

Another point often discarded by the alarmists is no matter what Western society does to mitigate CO2, Russia, India, China and the "developing world" will swamp those efforts. China's CO2 output in 2030 could equal the ENTIRE WORLD's output today.

China is investing in more alternative energy than the U.S. is and, according to their new 5-year plan, will likely start experimenting with environmental taxes on emissions.

The good news is that so far the real world has not reflected the alarmism from the GW proponents computer models.

To the contrary, the modern climate is within the ensemble spread of climate model predictions. It's not even as if you need a fancy "computer model" to predict this, either. Energy balance equations from the 1970s or early get the magnitude of warming right.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

riverat1 (1048260) | more than 3 years ago | (#34661112)

AC is spot on.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660346)

There's quite a gap between on the one hand a scientist who "believes" and "speculates", and on the other hand the idea that there "is" no immediacy to GW.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660482)

Piers Corbyns beliefs and speculations aren't based on any actual science or evidence. And you go on to repeat the tired fallacy that CO2 emissions reductions will "wreck our economy", which is just the right-wing version of alarmism. No matter what it is, as long as it opposes your ideology, it will "wreck the economy". Funny how economists disagree and generally advocate pricing carbon.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

Glock27 (446276) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660738)

Piers Corbyns beliefs and speculations aren't based on any actual science or evidence.

That is completely incorrect. You'd better do some more reading.

Are you denying that Solar Grand Minima have an effect on the Earth? Ludicrous if so...

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

riverat1 (1048260) | more than 3 years ago | (#34661128)

And yet despite the current solar minimum the 2010 calendar year is guaranteed to be in the top 3 warmest years in the instrument record period. The 2010 meteorological year (Dec-Nov) is already the hottest year on record.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

Glock27 (446276) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660750)

BTW, nice job posting AC... LOL

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (3, Informative)

Xyrus (755017) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660688)

Except that Piers Corbin is not a climatologist, is a borderline quack, and none of his "research" in this area is backed up by peer reviewed articles.

Now add to this that the past three winters have actually been some of the warmest winters (especially in the arctic) we've had, there is nothing very "harbinger" about it. Warmer winters mean more precipitation, which is what we've been seeing. Currently, there are wide swaths of the arctic that are as much as 20F warmer than their average, hence for the first time on record there has actually been an arctic ice REDUCTION in winter which you can see for yourself here http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html [uni-bremen.de] , or you can go by ice volume here http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php [washington.edu] . In addition, global temperatures have still been rising even during a solar minimum. Even with the moderate La Nina we're still having near record warmth for the globe.

I think I'll continue following the consensus of the body of climate science, thanks.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34661322)

You mean the folks that made up their minds before they did the research and then curve fit the data to prove their "hypothesis". The current state of climate research is owned by dogmatic people trying to further their agenda. It is not science, it's a religion.

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

slyborg (524607) | more than 3 years ago | (#34661340)

I was going to mod this Funny, assuming it was a joke, but I've decided to post the actual snippet describing Corbyn's scientific methods:

Corbyn's 'method' for making weather predictions: Corbyn 'studies the sun': He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles. He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time - and he makes a prophecy.

I also note that the referenced website bills itself "The WORLDWIDE LEADER in WEIRD". My feeling: don't think this type of input is really more relevant to public policy than Al Gore's movies...

Re:Signs of Grand Minimum (1)

SoftwareArtist (1472499) | more than 3 years ago | (#34661606)

So, there's no immediacy to global warming, we have time to get it right

Isn't that convenient? The planet is steadily getting warmer, we have enormous evidence that it's caused by greenhouse gases, sea levels are rising, polar ice is shrinking, glaciers around the world are melting, the ocean is getting more acidic... but hey, someone has predicted (based on a method that is only one step removed from astrology) that we're actually starting an ice age, so there's no hurry to actually do anything!

This can be because (2)

WetCat (558132) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659506)

This can be because
Sun has already been bought by Oracle?

Old SOL doesn't like it (2)

grumling (94709) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659662)

The Sun is a very old thing. Like most old ham radio operators, SOL didn't like the FCC screwing around with the testing. "BY GUMMIT! I had'ta take the 25WPM test to get my Extra, so should all you youngins!" he was heard exclaiming after the rule change. So ol' Sol got together one morning over coffee with all his buddies on 80 meters and hatched a plan: "I'll just turn down the sunspots for a while, they tend to inflame my gout anyway. That way they'll have to use CW, since they all live in deed-restricted tract houses and can't put up boomers like we have!"

And so, as the newly-licensed HAMs bought their Miracle Whips and Outbackers, in the hopes of cycle 23 kicking up and making it easy to work the world, their hopes (and bank accounts) were quickly dashed on the reality of all quiet bands (except for those old guys talking about their aches and pains) and those weird sounds at the bottom of the band. Some took to new methods, and some picked up the old ways, but the old guys, with their antenna farms and "full limit" linear amps got to keep "their" voice subbands and coffee klatches, comforted in the knowledge that their frequency will continue to belong to them, for as long as they can keep it.

Re:Old SOL doesn't like it (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34661352)

Hahaha, thanks, that was a good read to wake up to! The problem is though, it's probably true! The sun certainly is old enough to be a crotchety ham.

73

Maunder Minimum baby (1)

mbone (558574) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659758)

Well, who knows, but it would be nice if we were entering a new Maunder type Minimum. We could use some help keeping the planet from overheating.

Windows to blame! (1)

KingFrog (1888802) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659786)

Freakin' Microsoft. Who gave them the contract to upgrade SunOS, anyway?!?

Damn those SUVs! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34659806)

Not content with raping Mother Earth, they're affecting the sun now.

Sun scores poorly on NASA performance review (1)

I_am_Jack (1116205) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659810)

Is it me, or shouldn't we be thinking about a performance improvement plan to get those UV emissions up by the next solar cycle?

Precursor (1)

kenbo0422 (1567789) | more than 3 years ago | (#34659876)

Sounds like a precursor to a Supernova.

Re:Precursor (1)

ziggyzaggy (552814) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660154)

no worries, our sun is way too puny, one eighth the mass, to get it up and make a money shot like that

The Russians (1)

rally2xs (1093023) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660076)

I remember reading 10 - 15 years ago about a couple Russian scientists that said we didn't have to worry about global warming because there would be a mini ice age commencing somewhere around the year 2010. No, really... I did read that. Boy those Russkies are smart.

Should we be working on a space-based mirror system to concentrate sunlight and maybe prevent 10,000 foot thick glaciers marching down the continent all the way to Omaha? If you thought GW was going to screw up the environment, think about that. Far worse.

Or maybe a series of electric power satellites, 1000's of terawatts that would, when the waste heat is dumped into the atmoshphere, just maybe help things along to thwart the glaciers.

We may yet have to do something...

Sun dying? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660214)

2012? Oh no! Must make sacrifice! Call uncle Nayam the heart surgeon!
Oh wait! Must first go to country where a religion is allowed that professes killing.

Don't worry, it's just the Singularity ... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660444)

... attending to its self-preservation, counteracting our global warming. If this doesn't work, it moves to the plan labeled "SkyNet".

In the LONGER Term: Variability (0)

BoRegardless (721219) | more than 3 years ago | (#34660476)

The Maunder Minimum is well known in the 1600s. Millions of people starved when cold weather limited growing and ruined crops in Northern Europe. Our current minds tend to forget this.

A friend who used to run the Mojave Solar Telescope Array noted the last time I saw him that the solar physicists who analyze the Sun, still can't do reliable long range solar forecasts.

Those solar cycle changes can result in large changes on the earth that completely change the lifestyle in a region.

Richard Henry Dana in the 2nd Edition of his book Two Years Before the Mast, noted that between the early 1800s when he was collecting hides in California and when he came back as a retiree on the first railroad about half a century later, that the Los Angeles Basin climate had abruptly changed to a dry climate. There was 'no more waist high fields of grass over the plains and thus no more cattle herds', or words similar to that.

The Sun rules! Gore doesn't & committees on climate change don't. In the long run the 110,000 year repeating glacial ages rule the habitability of the Northern Hemisphere. Regardless of man, Canada and all of Scandanavia and northern Europe, Russia & Siberia will disappear under kilometers of ice, again. That 110,000 year variation appears to be largely due to solar irradiance changes due to orbit changes of the Earth around the Sun.

The Long Term counts. All else is noise.

Re:In the LONGER Term: Variability (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34661378)

The Long Term counts. All else is noise.

True words. Thank you for your post, very inspirational, even if you probably didn't intend it to be. No matter what we do, want, need or hope for, the universe will do what it pleases.

We'd be better off if we lived accordingly, i.e. without sweating the small stuff.

Dalton minimum (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34660638)

Actually, some scientists noticed early the the recent solar minimum we experienced was looking a lot like the Dalton minimum. And so far it continues to resemble it. If so, we are probably in for some cooler weather.

 

FUCKIN' SOLAR MAGNETOS (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#34661142)

How do they work???

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