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WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015

timothy posted more than 3 years ago | from the ask-again-later dept.

Microsoft 377

WrongSizeGlass writes "InformationWeek is reporting that Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015 according to IDC. IDC predicts 2015 will bring: Android 45.4%, WP7 & WinMobile 20.9%, iOS 15.3%, RIM 13.7%, Symbian 0.2%, and 'Others' 4.6%. These numbers would move WP7 into 2nd place and leave iOS in 3rd place with a slightly smaller piece of the smart phone pie than they current hold (15.7%). The author of the InformationWeek story isn't buying IDC's forecast, because of WP7's anemic sales to date and Microsoft's recent stumbles with its first two updates. I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."

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Obligatory XKCD (5, Insightful)

taktoa (1995544) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659676)

Re:Obligatory XKCD (1)

Life2Death (801594) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660050)

Parent has the right idea. Not like anything better will come along and shake up things. I'm sure the market looked far different before android was out...

Excellent (2, Insightful)

toadlife (301863) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660118)

Also, see this [straightdope.com] .

Re:Obligatory XKCD (3, Insightful)

Penguinisto (415985) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660210)

No kidding.

IDC tries to justify it by throwing the word "Nokia" around a lot, but honestly, Nokia will (at least IMHO) be lucky to remain in the smartphone business by 2015.

There's something else that screams "bullshit!" at IDC's predictions: while next quarter's marketshare stats (e.g. Canalys, ComScore, etc) may say differently, Microsoft's share of the mobile market is still dropping like mad. Even though WinMo 6.5 still has some mass to blow off, one would think that nearly 6 months of WP 7 would have at least slowed down the fall a little bit.

The final elephant in an already heavily pachyderm-populated room is Microsoft's utter silence on sales numbers. They almost always trumpet and trot out numbers, even if it's just channel-related. We all heard the big, bad 'two millionz0rz since launch!!!111' figure back in January, even though those were only channel shipments. Now, Microsoft's marketing department has nothing but the sound of crickets when it comes to mobile licensing sales (or even shipments).

Taken all together, it spells a whole lot of potential fail, and IDC needs to do a hell of a lot more than shout Nokia's name, like it were some sort of talisman that defies all logic.

Please don't link to xkcd "comics". (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660280)

Nobody, including you, is under any obligation to link to those shitty xkcd "comics".

I remember seeing a similar joke posted on the bulletin board outside of my father's office at the university where he was a physics professor, way back in the 1950s. The same goes for several other xkcd "comics", where I first saw the joke decades ago.

They're not original. They're not funny. They're not even particularly insightful in any way. Please don't think that they are.

Re:Please don't link to xkcd "comics". (2)

taktoa (1995544) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660356)

They're not original. They're not funny. They're not even particularly insightful in any way. Please don't think that they are.

Funny is subjective. Please don't think it isn't.

inb4 shill (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659684)

no.

Re:inb4 shill (4, Insightful)

homey of my owney (975234) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660018)

Really... If ever a story reeked of being purchased. I guess we know where those "expert" house's crystal balls are made.

Nokia Sales (4, Informative)

Moderator (189749) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659690)

"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

Not so fast...the author seems to base WP7's success on the success of Nokia, which is uncertain at best.

Yes, Nokia sells more cellphones than most other cellphone manufacturers COMBINED...however, a large majority of those sales are S40 devices, simple dumbphones that can't do much more than call and receive texts, but have a week plus battery life.

Nokia has, since mid-February, doubled-back on their future strategy. First, it was WP7 ONLY...then they were going to continue to release Symbian and Meego, now, Symbian is dead as of 2010.

It sounds to me like Nokia has no clue what they are going to do. At best, their explanation for the smartphone market has been murky; at worst, they still haven't addressed how they are going to make up the marketshare currently held by 600 million S40 dumbphones. Mostly people who do not want a dataplan or a smartphone. WP7 will not sweep into the low-end and take that market share. It's like Ford giving up making Fords, and deciding that they will only make high-end Lincolns to suit everyone.

I said it before, Samsung seems to have figured this out. They will use Bada on the low end, and Android on the high end. In this case, I would take a lot away from WP7's percentage, and bump up the "Others" category significantly.

Re:Nokia Sales (0)

Moderator (189749) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659724)

Symbian is dead as of 2010.

Typo, should have read 2012, although I'm sure some would agree with the original statement.

Re:Nokia Sales (1)

Daniel Phillips (238627) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659938)

For the period 2010-2012, correct "dead" to "walking wounded".

Re:Nokia/Walking (0)

TaoPhoenix (980487) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659964)

Win7 phonez....

Re:Nokia Sales (1)

exomondo (1725132) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660038)

Yes, Nokia sells more cellphones than most other cellphone manufacturers COMBINED...however, a large majority of those sales are S40 devices, simple dumbphones that can't do much more than call and receive texts, but have a week plus battery life.

But they do have a huge share of the smartphone market, it all fluctuates pretty quickly but they may still have the biggest share of that market.

It sounds to me like Nokia has no clue what they are going to do. At best, their explanation for the smartphone market has been murky; at worst, they still haven't addressed how they are going to make up the marketshare currently held by 600 million S40 dumbphones. Mostly people who do not want a dataplan or a smartphone. WP7 will not sweep into the low-end and take that market share.

They aren't discontinuing S40, that will continue to be the dumb-phone platform.

I wonder something else (4, Insightful)

93 Escort Wagon (326346) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659692)

I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8.

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

Re:I wonder something else (3, Interesting)

Kjella (173770) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659830)

Sure they will... they go in, they don't back out and admit it's a failure unless it's horribly obvious. I wager somewhere between Zune (extremely low) and Xbox (in the game, but not a huge winner) in popularity, probably more like the Zune being fourth after Android, iOS and RIM in some order. See, the people that have dumbphones aren't interested in smart phones, and for those that want smart phones - particuarly a new generation of teens - WP7 is never going to get cool. RIM holds the business market, iOS has Apple's cult following, Android is a bit jack-of-all-trades and WP7 is... nowhere in particular.

Re:I wonder something else (4, Insightful)

rsborg (111459) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659934)

Sure they will... they go in, they don't back out and admit it's a failure unless it's horribly obvious. I wager somewhere between Zune (extremely low) and Xbox (in the game, but not a huge winner) in popularity, probably more like the Zune being fourth after Android, iOS and RIM in some order.

Perhaps the GP comment

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

is really more about questioning Microsoft's future, not just the future of Microsoft's phone business. Recently, they just killed Zune... not because they didn't want to stay in, but because they're tightening their belt. Microsoft is facing mounting pressure from the Googles, Apples and Facebooks of this world, who are hungry and execute well. It may come time at some point that they really are forced to focus on what they do best... business desktop software. This could mean the (forced) abandonment of WP software, Bing, etc.

Re:Ms Abandonment (1)

TaoPhoenix (980487) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660024)

They can't abandon WP7 THAT quickly, that would thoroughly trash the 18 month (random guess) dev cycle for win phones. I'd give them abandoning it in 2014 after a couple of crazed christmas attempts - but that still makes the article a joke.

Oh wait - that's the point - the article is not supposed to be right, it's supposed to be a recursive mindshare generator. "Look, WinPhone7 is good because some article says so!".

Re:Ms Abandonment (3, Informative)

Jerry (6400) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660248)

They abandon Kin six weeks after launch.

Re:Ms Abandonment (1)

TaoPhoenix (980487) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660294)

Nah,

I think it's on the Zune track.

Just enough to be able to say random things for three years and annoy Paul Thurrott.

Re:Ms Abandonment (1)

larry bagina (561269) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660410)

it only took, what? 1 month? to abandon Kin.

Re:I wonder something else (2, Insightful)

whoever57 (658626) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660374)

It may come time at some point that they really are forced to focus on what they do best... business desktop software. This could mean the (forced) abandonment of WP software, Bing, etc.

Microsoft can't afford to do this. In the past, Microsoft's success was enabled by owning the complete flow, from the proprietary exchange formats to the proprietary office document formats.

But now, the "must have" is the smartphone. Hence Microsoft is playing on the other foot -- the Office and Windows have to play nice with the smartphones. But if Office and Windows play nice with smartphones, then other tools can interact with Office and Wndows, dramatically reducing the value of Microsoft's proprietary format lock-in.

The personal computing landscape has shifted and Microsoft has yet to catch up -- and, indeed, may never catch up.

Re:I wonder something else (1)

aztektum (170569) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659834)

Now that they bought Nokia, the worlds largest handset maker, I'm sure they will.

(this is a sardonic comment. i realize they did not actually *buy* the company.)

Re:I wonder something else (0)

dimeglio (456244) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660048)

So if they didn't buy Nokia, which they didn't, MS will fail? MS has to overtake both Apple and the band of Android sets. However, I think there's a large enough market for everyone with quality products. If Microsoft is makes a quality product, it will sell. My predictions at this time are not like IDCs which smell of insider influence from MS.

Re:I wonder something else (1)

Motard (1553251) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659916)

I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8.

I have to wonder whether, in 2015, Microsoft will be in the phone software business at all.

Microsoft is not known for strong initial offerings. The original IE was awful. The original Windows was unusable. They tend to stay in and fight, and sometimes win.

Re:I wonder something else (1)

Daniel Phillips (238627) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660172)

Microsoft is not known for strong initial offerings. The original IE was awful. The original Windows was unusable. They tend to stay in and fight, and sometimes win.

With P/E chronically below 12, the market is clearly betting against Microsoft winning anything significant in the foreseeable future.

Re:I wonder something else (1)

hedwards (940851) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660368)

A typical P/E for companies in general is 16, the tech sector tends to have unreasonably high P/E ratios, if you actually look at the fundamentals, MS is a much better buy than Apple or Google, it just isn't buzz worthy anymore. Tech shares sell as much on ones dreams as anything about the company, which is why MS is selling for so much less despite being in a stronger position, they are dull as dirt.

And at a certain point traders decide that a stock is only worth a certain amount of money and won't pay any more than that. Regardless of the profits that might be available. And for better or for worse, neither Apple nor Google have been called to account for their antitrust violations yet. Something that MS has to be mindful of even if they did escape with a slap on the wrist.

Re:I wonder something else (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660002)

They will as Nokiosoft phones!

Re:I wonder something else (2)

Daniel Phillips (238627) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660182)

Nekrosoft?

Re:I wonder something else (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660500)

Microsoft: Hello, IDC! Will we be in the smartphone business in 2015?

IDC: I don't know.

Microsoft: Oh right... here's $20,000

IDC: No, you won't be

Microsoft: Ok... $50,000

IDC: Yes... you will be number one and everyone will love you.

Microsoft: Thanks! Now let's go tell Steve B. and alert the media!

Thats balmer's pipe dream (-1, Troll)

slashdance3 (2029354) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659694)

Back then InformationWeek predicted [tinyurl.com] that Zune will outsell iPad...

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (1)

PolygamousRanchKid (1290638) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659768)

What is he smoking in his pipe . . . ?

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (-1)

postbigbang (761081) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659792)

Mod parent up. I'll bet that Microsoft or Nokia paid for the study. Unless they know something we don't, their predictions smell of sycophancy.

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (1)

dimeglio (456244) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660082)

This just in: Steve Jobs leaves Apple to replace Ballmer as CEO of Microsoft.

There, that should help MS' market share a little.

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (2)

sltd (1182933) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660090)

Mod grandparent down - that's goatse.

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (1)

vivek7006 (585218) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660186)

That link has now been altered to goatsex. Do NOT click! Mod Parent Down

Re:Thats balmer's pipe dream (-1, Troll)

slashdance4 (2029372) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660428)

That link has now been altered to goatsex. Do NOT click! Mod Parent Down

I have never seen such wrong comment:

That link has now been altered

It wasn't alerted, tinyurl doesn't allow this. I once expiremented with a chan of links and dyndns redirect in the middle to post a comment with legetime link, and then switch - didn't seem to work well enough to justify it.

That link has now been altered to goatsex

No, it points to goatse.ru [goatse.ru] , you insensitive clod!.

Do NOT click! Mod Parent Down

Well, thats your personal opinion, and my opinion is that it is wrong.

Word Perfect 7? (1)

kharchenko (303729) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659712)

Am I the only one who thought this was an odd comparison?

Re:Word Perfect 7? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659840)

Yeah, me too. I'm feeling old right about now. :)

Re:Word Perfect 7? (1)

damn_registrars (1103043) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660200)

Word Perfect vs iPhone ... it's like Mohammed Ali vs anti-lock brakes, or Johnny Matthis vs Diet Pepsi...

Re:Word Perfect 7? (1)

Shadow Wrought (586631) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660434)

How is that even valid!? Diet Pepsi would totally kick the living snot out of Johnny Mathis!

2015? Why not 2050? (1)

immakiku (777365) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659716)

As the summary mentions, 4 years is a long time range to be making such predictions. Who knows if there'll be a killer platform to come out or if Windows will scrap WP7 altogether?

Netcraft (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659734)

Going to need a confirmation from Netcraft before I believe that iOS is dying.

Then in 2016 .... (3, Insightful)

140Mandak262Jamuna (970587) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659746)

Then in the year 2016, this forecaster will return to Earth from whatever planet he is in, once what he is smoking wears off.

Sillyness on both sides of WP7 fence. (1, Insightful)

RightSaidFred99 (874576) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659748)

There's no reason to think it will overtake iOS at this point, in fact it's not doing all that well. Conversely - it's amusing people think MS has no chance in the smartphone market now (same way people mocked Kinect not too long ago). Never count someone with that much money out completely.

Re:Sillyness on both sides of WP7 fence. (1)

dstyle5 (702493) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660274)

Indeed. I heard about some silly 'Wii' thing Nintendo is coming out with, that thing will never catch on. Who would buy something where you wave a remote around to play and is called 'Wii'.

Is Informationweek owned by Microsoft? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659760)

That would explain this story!

Re:Is Informationweek owned by Microsoft? (4, Insightful)

icebraining (1313345) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659902)

Uh, it's IDC who predicts that, not InformationWeek. The IW guy actually doubts the prediction.

Further, Microsoft has stumbled badly with the first two system updates for its smartphone platform. First by delaying it for nearly two months, and second by bungling the actual delivery of the updates. Things are not going so smoothly for Microsoft. Heck, WP7 champion Joe Belfiore actually wrote a public apology to its WP7 customers about the whole update debacle.

This is the platform IDC thinks is going to own 20.9% of the market in four years?

I say fiddlesticks.

Naah I disagree (1)

Haedrian (1676506) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659784)

Let me tell you my prediction. Let me just grab my 10-sided dice, roll the numbers a bit and get back to you.

I'm sure I'd get results which are just as precise.

Re:Naah I disagree (3, Insightful)

jheath314 (916607) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660460)

They are so precise they even give the percentages down to the first decimal place... they're that good! I'd be impressed if they even got the ordinal rankings right over that stretch of time (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc), even moreso if they could ballpark the percentages (30-ish %), but then again i suppose that's why I don't have people paying me to predict things.

Really? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659786)

"I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."

I wonder if iOS 4 will still be Apple's smartphone OS or if Android 3.x will still be Google's smartphone OS in 2012.

Seriously, all operating systems go through major revisions. Microsoft just seems to make it more prominent in their branding.

Crystal balls? (1)

Tigger's Pet (130655) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659790)

How can they possibly even attempt to make this sort of prediction and be taken seriously? In four years time there may be a totally new, undreamt of technology that has made mobile phones redundant. There may be a new vendor on the market who has come from nowhere with a proper Linux-based O/S and taken over everything. Who knows?

Is it a seriously slow news day today or something? It's not April 1st for another 48 1/2 hours, so they're not playing us for April Fools.

I especially like the line of "I love how even the "Others" category has 23 times more users than Symbian, which has been the dominant smartphone platform for the better part of a decade.". WTF else does he expect, as reported here - http://news.slashdot.org/story/11/03/28/0256210/Nokia---No-More-Symbian-Phones-After-2012 [slashdot.org] - if Windows phones are the replacement for Symbian, then it's fairly obvious Symbian will be no more - hands up if you keep a mobile for 4 years?

Re:Crystal balls? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659864)

I do keep my cellphones for 3-4 years (nokia so far).

Re:Crystal balls? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660234)

There may be a new vendor on the market who has come from nowhere with a proper Linux-based O/S and taken over everything.

You might as well add, "and flying cars" to that one.

Re:Crystal balls? (1)

PolygamousRanchKid (1290638) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660466)

hands up if you keep a mobile for 4 years?

A true computer geek never throws anything away. I've got PCMCIA Token Ring cards, ISDN cards with no drivers and enough Ethernet cables to reach to the Moon. I can't swing a dead cat around my head in our apartment without hitting some useless, outdated technology. But I could never throw any of that away. That's what landed Hans Reiser in the the slammer:: he told the cops that he threw away the back seat from his car. The cop smartly said, computer geeks never throw anything away. Case closed.

Oh, and I have two Nokia cell phones from the Dark Ages that still work. I lend them out to folks who come on business to visit me. Those Nokias have been kicked, droped, folded, spindled and mutilated. But they still work.

So keeping something, doesn't mean that you still actually use it.

True (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659794)

They can beat iphone 4 in year 2015

Re:True (1)

dimeglio (456244) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660140)

That's a certainty. Not sure MS will take over the iPhone 6 with their WP7. The iPhone 6 is due around then and WP 7 should be obsolete by 2015.

IDC (4, Interesting)

Dan East (318230) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659802)

This is a ridiculous speculation by IDC. From this article [betanews.com] :

IDC also hugely underestimated Android growth (again), predicting 24.6 percent market share by 2014. But Android already exceeded the projection in 2010 -- just months after IDC's forecast.

Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me.

Re:IDC (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660008)

"Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me."

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure they have to twist and lean to one side to reach the place where they're pulling their numbers from.

Re:IDC (1)

Americium (1343605) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660100)

Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me.

I'm pretty sure they are pulling numbers out of their ass.

Re:IDC (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660378)

Seems like they're pulling numbers out of a hat to me.

Look again, that ain't no hat...

Re:IDC (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660380)

This is a ridiculous speculation by IDC. From this article [betanews.com] :

IDC also hugely underestimated Android growth (again), predicting 24.6 percent market share by 2014. But Android already exceeded the projection in 2010 -- just months after IDC's forecast.

Seems like they're pulling numbers out their ass to me.

There - FTFY. ;)

So, It'll only have taken 19 years. (1)

Seumas (6865) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659808)

Word Perfect 7 came out in 1996. So by 2015, that'll mean it only have taken 19 years to overtake iPhone! Though, I don't really know how one is related to the other and I'm pretty sure they didn't foresee an "iPhone" even existing, as early as 1996.

You know with enough forecasters... (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659812)

..you'll get predictions for everything. Some of them will even be *correct* predictions...

How much will they spend (1)

isorox (205688) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659836)

Microsoft have a lot of cash reserves. If they spend it on buying companies like nokia, then yes, windows mobile will have a large part of the market on "I just want to make a call" phones.

They'd have been better off buying RIM

Re:How much will they spend (1)

h4rr4r (612664) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660070)

Rim is now using QNX. They have a real grownup OS and no need for Microsoft. Unless you mean actually buy them unlike the bribing they did to nokia everyone is calling buying them.

Utter Rubbish! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659874)

After all, everyone knows the world ends in 2012!

History repeats itself (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659876)

So it's going to follow the same path Zune took in overtaking iPod players?

Zune Rules! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35659888)

Yea, Windows Phones will overtake iOS and Android just like Zune killed the iPod and the original PCs sold like hot cakes... Sell your IDC stock while you're at it.

Seems pretty accurate... (1)

shish (588640) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659950)

... if you're talking about the number of models of handset, and not about number of users

I love my WP7 (1)

danparker276 (1604251) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659956)

Just got my update today. Nothing can beat getting Xbox Cheevos on your phone.

Last Mover (1)

hhawk (26580) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659970)

Microsoft has one major advantage that they have used again and again. It's not their money, their technology but rather last mover advantage. They know how make bundles of technology introduced while other players have dominate market shares and take away those shares. They did it search, in word processing, spreadsheets, servers and they are working their way on gaming systems and others.

They have the time and the money to get it right and the money to get out there. People are only locked into phones for a few years and that gives MS and their partners plenty of time to improve and extend their offering.

Android will always suffer (in a VERY GOOD way) from being open source.. but not all will see that as a virtual. Apple is a closed garden. MS will walk the middle path more open that Apple but not as "open" as Android. They will integrate completely with all their services from Hotmail to office. This type of integration they have thought about and planned for years and they will make small marginal improvements until they win.

That's assuming it do Zune.. or any of the other products they have canceled along the way. Can you say, "Bob."

Re:Last Mover (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660126)

They are actually a first mover in this space. 97 I think was one of the first wince phones.

Now one thing that could happen is apple falls out of favor. It plays on people liking fads. Android is filling the 'not apple' crowd very nicely. MS may get what you are speaking about and let others flesh out more of the market for them.

Also Zune is basically canceled. They are not working on any new iterations. Makes some sense. The market for music only devices is going to get crippling smaller as more people start using smart phones.

Re:Last Mover (2)

fwarren (579763) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660300)

WTF Search?

With up around 70% of the market is Google. With Yahoo at less than 20% and Bing at less than 10%. Microsoft has bought themselves in as the search engine for Yahoo and are still less then 25% of the market. How exactly did they beat the dominate technology company in search?

 

Re:Last Mover (1)

Daniel Phillips (238627) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660308)

They have the time and the money to get it right and the money to get out there.

Time works against Microsoft as their engineering culture sinks further and further into dysfunctionality. Who cares about trying to achieve great things, much less hard slogging debugging work, when midyear review has no correlation between engineering success and career advancement? When rank and file employees are forced into a zero sum mutual backstabbing game trying to avoid that dreaded A/10? When the top management does the opposite of inspire by example?

Re:Last Mover (1)

Microlith (54737) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660442)

Android will always suffer (in a VERY GOOD way) from being open source

Google and the hardware vendors will always benefit from Android being selectively open source, but it's a black hole of open source that detracts from platforms that are far more open, diverse, compatible, and don't have so many elements of the OS controlled by a single organization that happily treats the open source community as second class citizens, allowing devices to ship with admitted rush job software they won't give to the AOSP for flaky reasons.

Sadly, it's stolen time and interest from other platforms and left us with people posting ROM images on file sharing websites and confusing and poorly documented processes on forums.

I wonder... (1)

Rimbo (139781) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659976)

...if the IDC "study" takes into account the effect of the AT&T - T-Mobile merger. Because if that occurs and there isn't a deluge of customers from T-Mobile to Sprint as a result, then the iPhone would be available for ... well, basically everyone except for Sprint customers in the USA, and you'd have to think that could only help the iPhone's market share.

Microsoft projected to have 20% share -- (1)

micheas (231635) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659978)

The assumption that the author seems to have made is that most phones will be smart phone in three years.

If that holds true, and Nokia holds on to a 20% market share the "study" seems like reasonable speculation.

Of course the assumption has a lot of issues, but it is not really assuming that iOS loses any share in the mobile phone industry, just that the mobile phone industry and smart phone industry will merge. If that happens, and that is a big IF, and Android is at over 40% other Linux phones at 20%, and Windows phone at 20% and iOS having half of the high end at 10% of the over all market seems like not too crazy of speculation. But, I wouldn't call that a win for Microsoft.

We are predicting four years out? (2)

bigsexyjoe (581721) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659982)

We are predicting four years out on a category of product that scarcely existed four years ago? And we say a product that has been out for six months should be in second place in four years? I am confident that the predictions are right, after all that website gives us three significant digits saying Windows 7 will have 20.9% of the market-share.

The URL of the IDC "forecast" is (1)

Jerry (6400) | more than 3 years ago | (#35659986)

here [idc.com] .

All that is is missing is the Microsoft PR logo, like the one Gartner forgot to remove from one of their "reports" that MS paid for.

From their "estimates" it appears that the Win Phone 7 will have to rise in marketshare as fast as the Symbian will drop. Not much chance of that happening since the WinP7 market share is reported on March 8th as "taking a dive": http://vista.blorge.com/2011/03/08/microsofts-windows-phone-7-market-share-takes-a-dive/ [blorge.com]

Information Week also said that (1)

Phizzle (1109923) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660016)

the year 2015 will be The Year of the ZUNE!

My prediction (1)

bigsexyjoe (581721) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660022)

My prediction (which is only slightly less speculative) is that Microsoft will buy RIM (maker of Blackberry) to keep themselves in the mobile phone game.

This is definitely true (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660072)

Because InformationWeek is the pinnacle of accurate information.

Coincidentally (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660098)

On that day, Satan will be skating to work.

This is ridiculous (1)

fredmosby (545378) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660108)

Everyone knows the world is going to end in 2012.

WP7=Nokia (1)

ylleKnaD (1826388) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660120)

All they did was move the current world-wide market share of Symbian over to WP7. This means they are making two assumptions:

1) Nokia will maintain its current smartphone market share in spite of WP7
2) Nobody else will provide WP7 on their phones. Or if they do, new adopters will cancel out market share losses by Nokia

Re:WP7=Nokia (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660206)

You do realize you're two assumptions are mutually exclusive, right?

And in other predictions (1)

rossdee (243626) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660138)

The world will end in Dec 21, 2012

In cell phone years that is several lifetimes (1)

Moof123 (1292134) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660154)

Need we ask what the pundits predicted for the iphone looking 4 years out this early in it's life? Sure seems to me that in the technology arena that 4 years is WAY too early to make big predictions, heck in 4 years MS could be bankrupt and Apple could have been split up over antitrust issues.

Oh well, anything to fill the pages in between the ads of you magazine...

Color me shocked (1)

metalmaster (1005171) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660176)

Do these predictions really surprise anyone anymore?

Lets break it down a bit
  • There are maybe 10 manufacturers that produce 1-5 phone models using Android OS. 2 or 3 manufactures are gearing up to produce tablets intended to compete with the iPad
  • A wikipedia article shows a list of devices [wikipedia.org] present and future developed by 4 manufacturers
  • Apple has 3 devices of past and present generations that utilize iOS

Im pretty sure I can go find a kid in grade school who can show you that Android > Windows Phone > iOS. Do we really need these predictions every other week?

Re:Color me shocked (2)

ConceptJunkie (24823) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660464)

Just be careful not to use the same one IDC hired...

Wat (1)

atari2600a (1892574) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660208)

Am I the only one that noticed that they're both 2nd-rate next to the 45% android prediction?

Check out IDC's recent predictions (1)

Tangential (266113) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660214)

I don't pay a lot of attention to IDC's forecasts. In mid 2010 IDC gave an authoritative forecast of 7.6M tablets sold worldwide for 2010. http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22345010 [idc.com] They completely missed that. Why should they be any more accurate on the Windows phone (or anything else for that matter?)

Re:Check out IDC's recent predictions (1)

rolfwind (528248) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660422)

Well, maybe your post would be more powerful if you actually listed the number of tablets sold instead of leaving us googling for it, wondering if it was lower or higher and by how much. Yeah, I googled for it, took a few minutes since I needed the correct terms to hit upon it. 20 million tablets sold in 2010.

They wish (1)

khraz (979373) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660224)

Yes, WP7 AND WinMobile at 20%... including 0.5% WP7 and 19.5% WinMobile.

Oh come on now! (1)

vorlich (972710) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660270)

Everyone knows that 2015 is already earmarked as the year of the Linux Desktop!

Kinect Phone (3, Funny)

w0mprat (1317953) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660372)

As soon as Microsoft puts Kinect-like functionality in a phone or tablet, Android, iOS and others will have nothing to counter it. .

WP7 was a great attempt and was very slick and new which briefly made iOS and Android look old news at the time. But it was too little too late into a saturated smartphone market.

Kinect sold ten million in a few months - outselling all ipods iphones and ipads and being extremely impressive for any new technology release. But we're all still so obsessed over shiny smartphones that we're ignoring Microsoft's meteoric sucess with Kinect and failing to talk about the obvious next move from MS. Kinect is, quite frankly, is a real revolutionary change in interfaces. Something which it owns and it's competitors don't. Multi-touch was more an evolutionary gimmick wrapped in masterful marketting hyperbole. It's cute, but touch screens have been around a long time and are stupendously overrated: ultimate your hands are in the way of the display.

This is all if Microsoft actually gets it's shit together of course, something it's competitors have been doing better the last 9-10 years. If it does, it suddenly makes Windows mobile getting more market share entirely plausible.

One things for sure, gaming on smartphones is underwhelming - Apple sure isn't doing it right. Microsoft has proven sucess with gaming.

(Grips his android phone a little tighter)

Forecast Benchmarking (1)

mevets (322601) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660418)

I found a reference where IDC claims that their forecasts are right 70% of the time - without any clear definition of right. In general weather forecasting is about 61%.

Does anybody do actual vs forecast benchmarking for these guys? I know the register had a long running gag about IDC's itanium forecasts http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/02/17/itanic_oracle_idc/page1.html [theregister.co.uk] is a good example. Is it because it feels like bullying to roll them over on this?

IDC are morons (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660440)

So, WP7 & WinMobile will have a market share of 20.9% four years ahead. Not 21%, not around 20% or ca. one fifth, not 20.90%. Nope, IDC can accurately predict with an precision of +/- 0.1 percent. Around here you would fail high school with such a claim.

Iphone beaten by Windows Phone? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#35660462)

iDoubtIt

WP7 predicted to beat iPhone by 2015 (1)

carbonUnit42 (1698328) | more than 3 years ago | (#35660474)

At what - checkers??
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