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Ask Slashdot: What Will IT Look Like In 10 Years?

Soulskill posted more than 3 years ago | from the reply-cloudy-ask-again dept.

Cloud 444

An anonymous reader writes "The IT industry is a lot different than it was 10 years ago; it underwent a huge boom in terms of labor and services required to keep up with the times. Now, we are entering a consolidation phase. The cloud makes it easier for companies to host e-mail, so now instead of organizations having their own Exchange guy, they will outsource it to the cloud. Instead of having a bunch of network engineers, they will deploy wireless and no longer need cabling or current levels of network engineering services. What do you think the long-term consequences of this will be? What skills do you think will be useful in 10 years? Is IT going to put its own out of work, like we did with the post office and libraries?"

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Wireless = less network engineers? (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159642)

I've yet to see a corporate wi-fi deployment that required less work on behalf of the network guy/gal(s) than a similar wired user base.. maybe I'm just naive?

Re:Wireless = less network engineers? (5, Insightful)

sjames (1099) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159748)

Going to all wireless will require at least as many engineers as now, but they'll have to be even better at it. They'll trade in their cat-5 testers for radio analysers to help them track down leaky ovens, malfunctioning wifi cards, and rogue devices. They'll enter new depths of hell trying to explain to an administrative assistant that the new potted plant in the foil wrapped pot is blocking her network connectivity.

Meanwhile, IT will end up buying a golf cart to help hunt down freeloaders in the parking lot.

Re:Wireless = less network engineers? (4, Interesting)

Z00L00K (682162) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159956)

And another factor with wireless is the limited bandwidth. When too many are using wireless at the same time in the same location things slows down considerably.

Even if you have 100Mbps but you share it with 20 people you may end up with 5Mbps. Wireless is also sensitive to electric noise, which makes things worse.

So wired networking will be the primary alternative even in the future. Especially considering that the applications we run today require more and more bandwidth.

If I would know that... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159650)

... I wouldn't be commenting on Slashdot but investing my money on it.

Flawed premise (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159658)

The rumors of the death of "in house mail" is greatly exaggerated!
Though I agree the "Exchange guy" may become a dinosaur with the continue rise of the "Linux guy".

Re:Flawed premise (2)

alphatel (1450715) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159854)

It's a relative proposal. The need for a guy and a server has waned as cloud computing becomes the viable option for a small company. Sure you can drop in a NAS if you know even the smallest thing about computers and setup email with any of many cloud providers. But is that going to work when the office is 10 executives instead of 10 social media marketers?

The life of the cloud I think is what is exaggerated. The massive cost reduction the providers are seeing in providing the distributed data are due in part to offshoring and offhosting. A great deal of firms really can't bear that, especially with the US reaching further into data banks without warrants looking for whatever activity might suit them. The pullback is inevitable - its only a question of when.

Either cloud will start to look less attractive or IT firms will build better scaled systems [nyte.com] . Usually when the hour looks bleakest is when the opposite happens. I would keep my eye out for local infrastructure changes that bring IT back in-house and delegate cloud computing to insensitive data and socially interactive applications. Having 200 people from a city I never heard of in a country I've never visited be in charge of all my material assets is a problem.

At least with the IT guy you know where you stand, and who's looking.

Re:Flawed premise (1)

martin-boundary (547041) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159954)

Having 200 people from a city I never heard of in a country I've never visited be in charge of all my material assets is a problem.

True, but only if you remain in business long term. The before and after of outsourcing can also look like this:

Before, you have 200 local people in charge of your material, and no serious competition abroad. After, you have 200 people from a city you never heard of in charge of your assets, and then a foreign competitor who employs 200 local people to compete with your 200 foreign people. Result: maybe you hire 200 local people to regain competitiveness, or you fold. It could go either way.

Of course, in the long run it all evens out, but in the long run we're all dead.

Re:Flawed premise (3, Interesting)

Z00L00K (682162) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159964)

However the cloud won't be able to compensate for the network latency when accessing data. This can be a major issue. Just going cloud-based isn't the perfect solution for everything.

Re:Flawed premise (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160166)

I have to disagree with you. If you run solutions such as WAN acceleartion, you will solve the issue of latency.
Please google: "amazon ec2 riverbed"

Questions from the original article... (3, Interesting)

biodata (1981610) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159664)

What will be the effect of organisations outsourcing everything and not employing engineers? Things will be poorly engineered and insecure. Everything will work a bit less well and take longer to get fixed. China will run things.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

smallfries (601545) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159684)

Also, learning Chinese will be essential in an engineering career.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

zlogic (892404) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159776)

Chinese engineers know English pretty well. After all, they have to communicate with customers and do onsite work. Some Chinese engineers may choose to immigrate to America.
Chinese will only be needed in case you're supervising assembly line workers.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

vtcodger (957785) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159814)

Not that it's relevant, but there seem to be a lot of dialects of Chinese and apparently not all are mutually comprehensible. I assume that all the dialects can be expressed in the same written language -- which isn't phonetic in the way European languages are anyway. But I've more than once seen Chinese here in the US give up on trying to communicate in Chinese and switch to English even though neither spoke English all that well.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

Cato (8296) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159862)

There are many dialects and most are mutually unintelligible, but the writing system is standard. In China, most people seem to speak Mandarin Chinese (putonghua) in addition to any local dialects.

Re:Questions from the original article... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159932)

Maybe it's just me but all the chinese I've met stateside spoke Cantonese, not Mandarin, and said the latter was much less widely spoken. Difference of area?

Re:Questions from the original article... (2)

wisty (1335733) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160038)

Cantonese is very much a minority language. The reason so many overseas Chinese speak it is because they immigrated from Hong Kong, where Cantonese is spoken.

Mainland Chinese (and or including Taiwanese, depending on your political stance) learn Mandarin at school, and have for decades. You can meet old people (especially in poor areas) who only speak local dialects, but all young people know Mandarin.

Re:Questions from the original article... (2)

Zontar The Mindless (9002) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160042)

Mandarin is the official language, required in nearly all schools in China Proper, and all PRC Chinese are expected to know it. (It's a bit different in the autonomous regions like Inner Mongolia and Tibet, but that's beside the point.)

Only about 10% of mainland Chinese speak Cantonese or a related dialect, and it is an official language only in Hong Kong and Macau. It is not official in Canton or any other Mainland province. The dialects were actively suppressed in the early years of the PRC, but there are now even a couple of Cantonese-language radio and TV stations.

However, Cantonese (or a close relative known as Hakka) is spoken more widely by *overseas* Chinese, particularly in the US, as well as in Southeast Asia.

BTW, contrary to what's often claimed, there *are* differences in writing the various dialects, at least in the case of Cantonese. Not only are many or most characters are pronounced differently, many of them have different meanings, some of the standard characters are not used, are altered, or are altogether replaced by nonstandard ones. What's true is that 98% of any printed matter you're likely to see is Mandarin.

When I've visited Canton, I've found that the locals tend to use Cantonese amongst themselves, but switch readily to Mandarin when speaking with non-Cantonese visitors. I'm told that some long-term migrants from other parts of China eventually pick it up (others don't, obviously).

But don't bother with Mandarin in Hong Kong--hardly anyone there speaks it, so you're better off just using English.

Re:Questions from the original article... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159942)

There are lots of dialects indeed, but China has a lot of different Chinese languages. The statement that the written language is the same for all Chinese is a government ideology to affirm Chinese unity. The state forces users of non Mandarin Chinese languages to use to a script that is not adapted to their needs. But it must be said that this is enforced less than it used to be.

Re:Questions from the original article... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160076)

My original post was withdrawn, so here we go again.
There are a lot of Chinese languages. The state ideology calls these languages dialects to affirm Chinese unity. However, these languages have different grammatical structures that cannot be expressed easily in the written (Mandarin) language. Only Cantonese was able to develop a written language adapted to its needs because of the fact that Hong Kong and Macau were - in the past - administered by foreign powers.
Naturally, within each Sinitic language, there is a also a huge abundance of dialects. The problem with syllabic tonal languages is that they easily become incomprehensible, even with small shifts in the sound patterns. To affirm unity in this wide array of dialects and languages it has become an established state ideology to say that the written language is the same for all Chinese.

Re:Questions from the original article... (2)

Genda (560240) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159892)

Sorry but this is incredibly naive. In ten years China will be the worlds largest economy and as hard as they are trying to grow IT professionals they will terribly short and American engineers who saw the curve early and capitalized on it will do very well indeed. Absolutely, learn Mandarin, it will serve you well the rest of this century.

Advances in swarm technology, adaptive intelligent systems, self optimizing technologies with move most engineers to position of working on IT metastructures at least on level removed from the data stream, probably more. With any luck human interfaces will improve dramatically. Security will become critically important as that threat to security will only grow, especially as poor practices today will result is massive failures in the not too distant future and business and government will knee-jerk respond by setting outrageously high security standards.

This suggest that jobs will move but the need for engineers will remain the same of grow (possibly grow a great deal.) That will continue until we develop human level AI and implement that intelligence into the networks and security systems themselves. Of course, once Human Level intelligence becomes commonly available, most of the jobs that human being do will be relegated to machines. The real issue then, becomes, unless we figure a way for common people to benefit from the ultimate migration to a robotic workforce the vast majority of people everywhere in every walk of life will suffer and the only ones who profit will be those vanishing few who are milking the planet dry today.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

rtb61 (674572) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160132)

China runs into the inevitable problem of a more educated "production line" will want more equitable access to the countries productivity. The current principle of working people to exhaustion, paying the bugger all and, housing them crappy barracks, all because it is cheaper than automation, well come to a bitter end. Greed will force that bitter as China is no more free of psychopaths and narcissists than the rest of the world.

So the real question is will we run full greed ahead into a new dark ages, no real growth, no real further development, just a bunch of insatiably greedy psychopaths and narcissists attempting to exploit the rest of us because they need more, more, more, everything.

On the flip side mandatory testing for the genetic conditions of psychopathy and narcissism to exclude those people from positions of control, governance and influence, cleaning up corporations and governments. So a period of renewed growth, with technological acceleration and maybe just maybe, altered reality glasses becoming the norm. So glasses with cameras fitted to your visual prescription, creating a digital overlay of your visual environment, not for shit eating advertising everywhere but to improve digital interaction ie creating visually mid air large screens for person to person communications where you project your desired avatar or look into a mirror. With input driven by a floating virtual keyboard and arm and hand movements.

Once you go that way, desktops, notebooks, mobile phones and even the current growth area big screen computers (except in public areas), all become irrelevant. You would dock to a private or public base station for more processing power and storage, hook up peripherals like a real keyboard and mouse for better tactile response and do a mix of wired and wireless communications (people will be more cautious when it comes to frying their brains 18 hours a day). Then again it might take more like 25 years due to dead head patents without technological capability choking up development.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

Hazel Bergeron (2015538) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160140)

This is an automated warning that the parent post contains a higher than healthy proportion of marketing and/or enthusiastic investor speak and/or doomsayer speak. The following phrases were identified to make this decision.

Vague, bold claims:

  • will be the worlds largest economy
  • they will be terribly short
  • will do very well indeed
  • serve you well the rest of this century
  • will improve dramatically
  • will become critically important
  • will result in massive failures
  • in the not too distant future
  • outrageously high
  • possibly grow a great deal
  • most of the jobs that human being do will be
  • the vast majority of people everywhere in every walk of life will suffer
  • milking the planet dry

Head-in-the-clouds buzzwords:

  • the curve
  • swarm technology
  • adaptive intelligent systems
  • self optimizing technologies
  • IT metastructures
  • removed from the data stream
  • human level AI

To appeal this decision, please rewrite your post, making sure to include argument, evidence, an understanding of historical context and appropriate language. This will trigger a re-evaluation when the system gets round to it. Have a nice day!

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

InterGuru (50986) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160150)

We are all heirs to the industrial revolution and grateful for its advances, such as better living conditions and a longer healthier life, but the revolution was pure hell for the working class that lived through it.

Re:Questions from the original article... (2)

realityimpaired (1668397) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160196)

In foreign affairs, it used to be "the optimists learned Russian, the pessimists learned Chinese". Now, it's "the optimists learn Chinese, the pessimists learn Arabic".

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

CJSpil (166214) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159692)

This. For a living I do support and spend most of my time speaking to people who really shouldn't have been granted admin privileges on anything more complicated than an etch-a-sketch.

This trend seems to be on the increase as more and more customers outsource their in-house development/admin/support to cheaper outsourced less skilled labour.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

digitalchinky (650880) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159856)

What exactly does "This." mean? (It seems redundant)

I moved to Asia about 10 years ago, over here there is a huge demand for foreigners - many of us are jumping from company to company picking up the pieces from failed outsourcing ventures, often at higher pay scales than the people that were laid off in the first place.

I don't disagree with you by the way, just that 'skilled' labour is required no matter where you set up shop. Eventually companies will realise that outsourcing is not always cheaper, presuming you want to maintain the same level of quality anyway - though I guess for some near enough really is good enough.

Re:Questions from the original article... (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159910)

What exactly does "This." mean? (It seems redundant)

It seems to be a recent colloquialism roughly equivalent to "hear hear" i.e. expressing agreement and support for the position of the previous commenter. It is a little grating but if it continues to catch on then presumably it will start to sound more natural.

Although it might seem redundant with a comment that goes on to express agreement anyway, it probably actually can be a useful signal of where the paragraph is going, so the reader is following it with an expectation of a supportive statement rather than a dispute. Similar to starting with "I agree", "I disagree" or even just "Yes" or "No".

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

obarthelemy (160321) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159784)

As opposed to the excellent engineering and high security we have today ?

Maybe is companies spend a little less time running cables, configuring SANs, and patching OSes, they'll be able to focus on stuff like features, reliability security ?

Re:Questions from the original article... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160040)

Running cables and configuring SANs and patching OSes doesn't take nearly as much time as the compliance paperwork for it.

It's much faster to just fill in "The application software requires this set of insecure holes to operate." Both lead to a "compliant" system.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

multipartmixed (163409) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160084)

Maybe is companies spend a little less time running cables, configuring SANs, and patching OSes, they'll be able to focus on stuff like features, reliability security ?

Exactly. We're a software shop that has a pile of UNIX geeks and plenty of mail expertise. We outsourced mail and calendaring to Google a few years ago and couldn't be happier.

Why did we do this? The first clue was that *everybody* was forwarding their mail to gmail.com accounts because the search was so damn fast, and we knew what kind of money+time it would take to make our local stuff that fast.

Now we don't have that mystery missing-man-day every month when something inevitably goes wrong, allowing us to spend that much more time on software.

And, as a bonus, we have functionality we didn't before -- like exchange integration, so that meeting invites from our parters (using MS stacks) pop up on our iPhones.

I mean, really -- other than Larry and Sergei reading our mail, there really isn't much of a downside.

Re:Questions from the original article... (1)

mjwalshe (1680392) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160210)

what happens when Google shuts down your account on a whim ?

Re:Questions from the original article... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159844)

I thought we just spent the last ten years consolidating and doing all of this stuff?

Convergence in base services (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159668)

Base services like email and storage will partially move to the cloud but most businesses have core business that rely on IT this will not change much most of the concerns will also be controll and ownership reg. cloud services also integration like authorization remains largelly unsolved.

Much like the radio industry (1)

assemblerex (1275164) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159678)

Computers become phones, phones are disposable and aren't serviced or repaired. Home computers become more expensive to build as demand lessens.

Internet anonymity nearly gone and illegal in many countries. You history tracked and everything taxed. A two tier rich man / poor man internet.

A fee for everything. Network priority fee, cloud access fee, music playback license, tv viewing fee.

Re:Much like the radio industry (0)

jhoegl (638955) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159792)

Corporatization of the USA is near complete.
"Your credit line" will be changed to what it actually is, "Slave labor based on corporate greed".
Paper money will no longer be distributed, instead will be "virtual".
The river you used to swim in now spawns hellish mutated fish that are slowly trying to take on the world.
Voting will be online and will have "outages" based on zones where Democrats are favored.

Re:Much like the radio industry (1)

Slashdot Assistant (2336034) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159938)

John of Patmos? Why didn't you tell me you were back in town?

Re:Much like the radio industry (1)

Bert64 (520050) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159994)

Democrats are as much a part of the status-quo party as the republicans, they work together to ensure that the current system remains in place... They're smart enough to realise that a 1 party system is too obvious, so they split their single party in two to create the illusion that people have choice.

If any outages occur, they will happen if a third party ever gets any sizeable portion of the vote.

You know (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159720)

5 years from now everyone will be running free GNU on their 200 MIPS, 64M SPARCstation-5

We'll all... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159746)

... fly around with our personal jetpacks servicing computers the size of small planets. What else?

Bikesheds, web interfaces, virtual clusters (1)

Ceriel Nosforit (682174) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159750)

The dino pen will become know as the bikeshed, since a heterogeneous virtualized cluster together with the web being the most common UI everyone will know how to build IT solutions and IT depts will fight tooth and nail for their idea to win.

IT depts will be more gender-neutral since the hardcore geeks will migrate towards vendors and labs, and people-skills will be even more important.

Cheap high-speed interconnects, better electrical efficiency, and ongoing miniaturization means you can build a supercomputer in your closet and become a local service provider.

Wireless (1)

drolli (522659) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159756)

To build a good wireless you need a significant amount of cable and skill. And since Ethernet still is the best for a installation with a high density of systems (offices) and power over Ethernet makes attaching thin clients on the table very easy i don't see how Ethernet would vanish soon.

Email services have been extremely cumulated since some time. What will reduce are the people installing software (but this trend also exists already for some time) and searching for mistakes.

Re:Wireless (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159772)

To build a good wireless you need a significant amount of cable and skill

Wireless. You're doing it wrong.

Re:Wireless (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159836)

True... I think every new wireless router out there comes with wds in some form or another...

Re:Wireless (1)

drolli (522659) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159894)

Yes. I seem to do it wrong. But probably you know what wireless magic goes into the free plug on the access point.

MY GUESS !! A LOT LIKE GOATSE.CX (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159786)

http://goatse.cx/ [goatse.cx]

Check it out if you want to see for yourself !! SIGN UP TODAY !!

WARNING! (1)

Zen Punk (785385) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159920)

Site is not really Goatse!

If you click on it expecting goatse you will be disappointed.

Unbearable (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159788)

In the last 10 Years IT has lost almost all fun, thanks to all the idiotic manager ("whaaaaaaa, people here have fun?? NONONO, we have to change that!!"), no matter that the work was still done.

But hey, notting is more motivated to do a good job than an unterpaid, overworked sysadmin that treated like a peace of shit all day. Well done.

Now, let's see if we can have at least a bit of fun with the security policys in BES...

IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (5, Insightful)

Whuffo (1043790) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159810)

Almost every company depends on networked computers to perform critical daily tasks. IT's function is to provide and maintain the computing infrastructure.

Unfortunately, there's MBA types counting beans and looking for places to save money. They look at IT and see a cost center; IT adds nothing to the bottom line.

So let's start with a company with a healthy IT department; since they do their jobs, all the computing resources are up and running, problems are few and far between and quickly resolved.

The bean counters look at the situation and how much they're paying IT - and see that everything is working fine. What are we paying these folks for? Lay them off to save money.

Things keep running for months but start to fall apart around the edges; the users fix some of their PC problems and work around others. At about 18 months or so something critical goes down; the Exchange server takes a crap or something similar. Now they're in a panic; we need qualified IT staff, pronto. So they start hiring again (at a higher pay scale) and the cycle repeats.

Try not to confuse this cycle with the longer cycle that moves computing power from the server to the desktop, then back to the server, back to the desktop and now back to the server. "Cloud" is just BS talk; it's dumb terminals on the desk and everything on the servers (again).

Working in IT is like being in a big game of musical chairs. The pay is good when you're getting paid, but there are gaps between the jobs. Right now isn't good for IT people, but in a year or two...

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (1)

Zen Punk (785385) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159936)

Cloud is the stupidest fucking buzzword. It pisses me off more than even the ones before - blog, web 2.0, et. Why the fuck do even technically minded people who should know better start aping this asinine abuse of language? All you have to do is give a new name to a concept older than most IT workers and suddenly its the Hot New Shit that makes everything it touches that much better.

Its a shitty fucking metaphor, too. Clouds are loose, amorphous collections of water droplets. What the hell does that have to do with server-side applications/remote storage? This shit isn't even distributed for the most part - it's housed on a central server somewhere.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159986)

Cloud is the stupidest fucking buzzword. It pisses me off more than even the ones before - blog, web 2.0, et. Why the fuck do even technically minded people who should know better start aping this asinine abuse of language? All you have to do is give a new name to a concept older than most IT workers and suddenly its the Hot New Shit that makes everything it touches that much better.

We all ape it because it was the first buzzword for distributed computing/grid/etc. to become accepted by business consumers and allow the industry to grow.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (3, Interesting)

wisty (1335733) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160064)

But IT'S OFTEN NOT DISTRIBUTED.

It's often just a virtualized single server, running on a single server on Amazon's rack. And Amazon doesn't care about uptime for that individual server, because it's a cloud, and you shouldn't be so dumb as to run a service on a single server, despite that being what people are using it for.

Yes, it was a great idea - write everything in a distributed way, and it can be omnipresent. Like a cloud. But only if you wear the cost of doing it the right way, which nobody does.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (3, Informative)

msauve (701917) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160126)

You must be new to IT, or at least networks. "Cloud" isn't new at all. Network diagrams (going back at least to how DEC drew DECnet ones) have long used "grey clouds" to indicate areas of the network where the internal details weren't important to understanding. So, "cloud" in relation to networks has been used for 30+ years.

So, "cloud" services are just ones that are out there in that cloud - you don't necessarily know or care the exact network path to the service, it's just at the other end of some pipe (oh, that's another networking term you should get used to - we don't use real pipes, either).

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (1)

camperdave (969942) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160188)

Cloud is the stupidest fucking buzzword. It pisses me off more than even the ones before - blog, web 2.0, et. Why the fuck do even technically minded people who should know better start aping this asinine abuse of language? All you have to do is give a new name to a concept older than most IT workers and suddenly its the Hot New Shit that makes everything it touches that much better.

Its a shitty fucking metaphor, too. Clouds are loose, amorphous collections of water droplets. What the hell does that have to do with server-side applications/remote storage? This shit isn't even distributed for the most part - it's housed on a central server somewhere.

Actually, a lot of cloud services are hosted on a central server nowhere. Servers are being virtualized on amorphous collections of geographically distributed, mutually redundant data centres. Just like you can't point to a single water droplet and say "that is the cloud", there's no single box you can point to and say "That is the gmail server."

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159990)

I think you're way too optimistic on behalf of the local job market. I've started to work for a big consulting company (100k+ class) and it's all about having local people in customer-facing positions and outsourcing everything on the back-end to India. Already they're the largest country in the group and they're growing fast. We're also growing locally, but a lot of the markets we're taking over used to be staffed with all local resources so in net jobs are disappearing off the local market. And we're again facing competition from pure Indian companies where no real local presence is required. Personally I feel my job is pretty secure, but if you're purely in IT and hardly ever see anyone described as your customer or client, I'd worry. If your job can be done without facetime with them, it can probably also be done by India. And despite all the crying over poor quality, it's certainly better than what it was. So if it didn't stop people 2 or 5 or 10 years ago, they're not going to stop now.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (1)

houghi (78078) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159998)

IT's function is to provide and maintain the computing infrastructure.

People from IT, please re-read this. At some companies it was as if the company is there to give IT something to do. At least that was the attitude of the IT department. Luckily not all are like that.

Each department think that without them they company would not exist. In reality each and every department has its function. If they don't, then they will be cut off.

Each department will go trough the same cycle. There is no reason why IT should be an exception.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160046)

Right now isn't good for IT people, but in a year or two...

...the economy will really be in the toilet, and the only IT work will be outsourced, to India.

Re:IT has always been cyclic; no surprises coming (1, Interesting)

roman_mir (125474) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160124)

Unfortunately, there's MBA types counting beans and looking for places to save money. They look at IT and see a cost center; IT adds nothing to the bottom line.

- how is that unfortunate? Why shouldn't money be saved?

In competing markets and with actual competition comes the market pressure to reduce costs, so money must be saved and what I predict is that IT will have to become more and more resilient and survive with smaller budgets in those companies that have departments, and in reality challenges that are posed normally are met with solutions.

In fact I expect more interesting development in terms of productivity to come out of IT in near future, as people who work in this industry finally understand that they need to do something if they actually want to have any lives left to live at all instead of spending and average of 10 hours at work 6 days a week.

Innovation does not come without pressure, pressure and challenges bring it about and if you think it's only IT that the Accounting is looking at to save costs, you are way off base. Accounting is there to push people in the entire company to be more productive, which means to come up with solutions that allow them to be more productive. Better and smarter tools, that's what I expect the IT to have due to all this economic pressure.

Sneakernet (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159826)

Corporations will do away with Internet access, instead creating a pigeon "sneakernet" to transfer (company approved) data to (company approved) recipients. This will save the millions of watts of power currently consumed by corporate "403 Generators" that stop people doing horrible, unproductive things like using Google Translate and Google Images, yet couldn't give a flying fuck if you have IRC on all day whilst watching Netflix.

What will NOT happen (1)

Urkki (668283) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159834)

When talking about IT work and IT at work, there are a few practical things that will not happen:

We will not get get rid of physical keyboard, until we have a brain interface that can match typing speed on keyboard.

We will not get rid of 20+" displays with FullHD+ resolutions either, because doing actual work on some postage stamp sized display is much less efficient, much more pain.

These two things set pretty hard limits on what will happen.

Re:What will NOT happen (1)

kwoff (516741) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160016)

Depends where the postage-stamp sized display is. People could wear goggles instead of monitors, or eventually retinal projectors attached to their glasses. You think it's funny, but I remember when people started talking on mobile phones how odd they seemed to be, talking to themselves. It'll seem weird at first when people are gesturing and manipulating things that aren't there, but people will get used to it.

Obligatory (1)

rust627 (1072296) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159846)

Linux on the desktop ............

Re:Obligatory (1)

aix tom (902140) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159948)

That already happened in a lot of companies.

True, most of them just boot and then launch a Terminal server session on a Windows Terminal server, but hey, it's a start. ;-P

Mostly Agile (4, Insightful)

Rik Sweeney (471717) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159850)

There will be a lot more agile shops, most of them implementing extreme programming, and making the developer feel even more like they're just part of a production line.

Don't get me wrong, I think parts of Agile are OK, but I've been to far too many interviews in the past where the interviewer thinks that Agile is the be all and end all of programming.

Re:Mostly Agile (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159888)

There will be a lot more agile shops, most of them implementing extreme programming, and making the developer feel even more like they're just part of a production line.

Don't get me wrong, I think parts of Agile are OK, but I've been to far too many interviews in the past where the interviewer thinks that Agile is the be all and end all of programming.

What you've just described is the situation that Agile has been bred to prevent. Developing as a creative, innovative activity, not a monotonous repetitive one.

Though I don't doubt that crap bosses and businesses have corrupted any idea to suit their own ends. "Idiots gonna idiot".

Re:Mostly Agile (1)

turbidostato (878842) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160112)

"There will be a lot more agile shops, most of them implementing extreme programming, and making the developer feel even more like they're just part of a production line."

Clever managers will do it exactly the opposite way.

From my own experience, agile (esp. scrum) is not a project management methodology but a motivational methodology (both for developers and customers) so clever managers use agile in order for the programmers to be *in fact* part of production line while, at the same time, making them feel as if they were doing some interesting creative work.

Gotta admit, Steve Jobs said it best: (4, Interesting)

Qbertino (265505) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159872)

Steve Jobs in his last single interview with Walt Mossberg had a very good example of what is happening with IT right now. It basically goes like this:

The very first cars were trucks. The very first chariots humans built were to hawl food from A to B. They were utility vehicles. Only later, when the vehicles of each age became a commodity, did they turn into everyday passenger vehicles that had a certain mass-availability.

The computer now is doing the same thing, moving from being a tool for workers to being a commodity for everyday use by everyone, not just experts. Experts like us don't like that very much right now, but that's the way it goes. Bizarre IBM age keyboard layouts are finally becoming a thing of the past, UIs are becoming more task focused and the need for abstraction whilst using a 'Post-PC Device' is demising quickly. Even the mouse and the file-system is quickly fading into a specialist tool.

Everyday commodity computing is basically going the way of the iPad.

IT will move to a stronger separation of end-user and expert computing. Workstation-Laptops will become more rare and expensive, purpose built for programmers and admins to use them whilst tablet and netback devices will become a dime a dozen in all kinds of varieties. People won't look for actually performance but for brands of services. Sales talks like this: 'Can my device Twitter, Facebook, Flickr and Netflix?' 'No, it can only Twitter and Facebook, you need an upgrade to Netflix with it.' will become normal at the HiFi-Store or carrier outlet.

Some vendors like Apple, Nintendo or Sony will have a strong vertical lock-in with cushy comfort solutions that require upgrading every 3rd year, others will be more open and more utility focused.

Carriers will get into bed with hardware, software and service brands more often. I expect branding and mindshare to become even more important than today in many places. To emphasize: I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft moved to the Linux kernel in a few years time and nobody would really care or even notice.

Our kind will specialize more and the rich-client web will get a new boost - as it is happening right now - because the platform diversity mess will be very much 1980ies style also like it is right now again.

All in all I'm not to scared about the way of IT, crazy DRM & patents, Human Rights and eavesdropping laws aside.
It's going to be just as interesting then as it is today.

My 2 cents.

Re:Gotta admit, Steve Jobs said it best: (1)

CuriousGeorge113 (47122) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160034)

"To emphasize: I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft moved to the Linux kernel in a few years time and nobody would really care or even notice."

You said this, or Steve Jobs? If Jobs, can you cite a source?

This is one of those "When hell freezes over" sort of statements. However, if two years ago you would have told me Microsoft would have the most "Open" operating system for mobile devices, I would have called you crazy.

Hey, now, I like my bizarre IBM-age keyboard. (1)

intellitech (1912116) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160160)

Bizarre IBM age keyboard layouts are finally becoming a thing of the past, UIs are becoming more task focused and the need for abstraction whilst using a 'Post-PC Device' is demising quickly. Even the mouse and the file-system is quickly fading into a specialist tool.

Hey, now, some of us like our "bizarre IBM-age" keyboards. If you've never used an IBM Model M, you don't know what you're missing.

Re:Gotta admit, Steve Jobs said it best: (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160176)

"Everyday commodity computing is basically going the way of the iPad."

This really needs repeating, because slashdot groupthinkers ** don't get it **. Normal people, you know, the 99% out there, do NOT like computers. They want a device that "just works". The iPad and devices like it (eg smartphones) are what they want, and they are moving to such things in droves. In doing this they get to drop all the headaches that come with a consumer open-architecture PC.
o
This annoys the basement dwelling nerds, but that won't stop the inevitability of it. There is HUGE consumer demand for the advantages that come with things like iPads, and normal PCs are going to become a niche.

At this point, a thousand slashdot neckbeards will chime in with "But... but... it can't happen because you can't run autocad on your cell phone!" But they completely miss the point. MOST people do not do those things. Thus, the bulk of the market will move to mobile computing technologies, and the rest will become a niche, and thus, available but very expensive.

Re:Gotta admit, Steve Jobs said it best: (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160204)

Except he'd be wrong if he opened his argument that way; the very first cars were absolutely not trucks. In fact they were one-or-two-person vehicles until about 1896, when Daimler produced the first truck, which hardly sold at all for the first five years. Even then, gasoline-powered trucks weren't common for quite a time into the era of the car, because horses (and steam engines) were vastly more cost-effective. Internal combustion engines were only practical for carrying people and small loads until well into the 1900s. Even Ford didn't produce his first proper truck chassis until 1917 (his first 'truck' on a car chassis was made at the turn of the 20th century).

And the computer became a commodity more than ten years ago (when PC prices began to fall rapidly).

Jobs is right on a whole load of things but he has a tendency to steer history to his liking.

Re:Gotta admit, Steve Jobs said it best: (1)

rubycodez (864176) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160244)

silly 21st century boy, you are not thinking back far enough. Ox drawn carts were trucks.

in ten years... (1)

smash (1351) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159876)

... those of us building real networks and corporate infrastructure today will be re-hired at great expense to migrate company data AWAY from "the cloud" and back under corporate control.

Between now and then might be a little bit interesting.

Re:in ten years... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160178)

That's very true.

First will put everything in the cloud, it will take 5/10 years, then somebody will say: "Hey we need a more powerfull model, let's do the 'cloud' for each department and send messages betwen them, the distributed model is more powerfull!".

  Those who do not remember their past are condemned to repeat their mistakes

The same... (1)

roc97007 (608802) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159890)

...except for less money.

The Future (1)

EoN604 (909459) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159914)

The "facsimile" will start to reach the end of it's life as people find less practical use for it. This technology will replaced with what is known as "electronic mail" (or "e-mail" in technical circles) which is basically a form of mail, but electronic. The emergence of "mobile telephony" will start to rise as well - allowing people to communicate in real time in voice while out and about.

Re:The Future (1)

aix tom (902140) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159968)

Mobile Telephony? Humbug. People will trip over the wires an break their legs!

Re:The Future (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160070)

It's sad to say, but the company I work for still thinks faxes are a legitimate way to move large pieces of information around.

Re:The Future (2)

rubycodez (864176) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160248)

Not as long as companies believe facsimile can be accepted as having legal standing but e-mailed scanned images do not

Rebound (1)

erroneus (253617) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159950)

He who gives up security for convenience deserves neither... or something like that.

The cloud is just a bad idea for companies who rely on their data. There's just no way around it. And wireless over wired? Perhaps if they painted all the walls with that special paint to block wifi from passing through... but then you might not get any phone calls either.

omg (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37159962)

omg we are doomed

I Know! (1)

MichaelSmith (789609) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159966)

It won't smell too good, thats for sure.

One guy (1)

paper tape (724398) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159970)

The future of IT will be one guy, sitting in a closet, making minimum wage to push a button when someone's cupholder is broken. ...because management is afraid of automation.

"Now, we are entering a consolidation phase"?! No! (1)

G3ckoG33k (647276) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159974)

"Now, we are entering a consolidation phase"?! No!

There are no indications that we are entering a consolidation phase.

640k... http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Bill_Gates [wikiquote.org] : "I've said some stupid things and some wrong things, but not that. No one involved in computers would ever say that a certain amount of memory is enough for all time I keep bumping into that silly quotation attributed to me that says 640K of memory is enough. There's never a citation; the quotation just floats like a rumor, repeated again and again."

No, the tighter integration of fast memory with multicore CPU/GPU-like capacities will create the new killer apps we have not developed yet. IBM Watson in your pocket? Perhaps, but most likely the servies or device is not developed yet.

There are no indications that we are entering a consolidation phase!

The anon is an idiot who eats buzzwords as if they (5, Insightful)

SmallFurryCreature (593017) | more than 3 years ago | (#37159982)

The anon who wrote this question really should stop eating buzzwords like they are candy, they are rotting what little brain he had to begin with.

Wireless to replace the networking guy? Because wireless is just plug and play right? You just setup one of those magic boxes and voila, the entire office building has zero-config access. That is the level this guy is thinking at, it shows he just hasn't got a clue. Just because you used wireless on your home router doesn't mean you are a networking expert, wireless or otherwise. Setting up wireless access is in fact harder for a big building then wired. Wired is simple, you got a cable, you draw it, you test it, it works. Cable doesn't get interference from a microwave or a factory nearby that runs something every monday. It has no dark spots, no interference. And you know what cable you plugged into which PC. I worked in offices where the visitors wifi was only working in the offices, not in the reception or meeting areas. That is helpful.

He also proposes to move your email into the cloud. Clearly he never worked with regulators who would throw such a fit at handing all your confidential data over to a third party.

This is just another post by some kiddy who heard some buzzwords and thinks his massive experience setting up his mom's computer gives him an insight into what IT support for even a medium sized company is all about.

The future is always just the same. Why? Because things don't change all that much. Take flying cars, do you think they are going to solve grid-lock magically? Right, because the entire skies will be open to them right? Do you want flying cars buzzing over YOUR house? No? Then they will be confined to corridors, highways in the sky, just as congested as roads. Proof? Airliners are already having trouble fitting enough planes into busy areas. Now imagine every jumbojet replaced by 300 individuals in the skies.

IT hasn't changed all that much. Even if you go wireless and into the cloud it will STILL require an admin on the ground to deal with it all. Just look at how often Amazon's cloud has been down. If you been in IT a little bit longer then this baby anon, you will know that IT is always changing and changing back again. From mainframe to PC's to the network to the cloud... it is just the latest craze. So the cable puller now pulls a cable to the wireless box and spends his time not checking cable but reception. Big whoop.

Re:The anon is an idiot who eats buzzwords as if t (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160062)

+1...Instead of Network Engineers we'll deploy Wireless? WTF is this guy talking about?

Re:The anon is an idiot who eats buzzwords as if t (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160154)

The anon might be just pressing the right buzzwords, but even that points to the right direction. When a technology is young, you have a lot of people employed, each pushing it in a different potential direction. Eventually when it matures, consumers settle on a commodity and a standard. Im in IT, and i worry about my future career....when everyone settles on standard products, the only think left is training or support, not development (or as much as there used to be).

Re:The anon is an idiot who eats buzzwords as if t (1)

turbidostato (878842) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160168)

"The anon who wrote this question really should stop eating buzzwords like they are candy, they are rotting what little brain he had to begin with."

The problem is that as long as enough rotten brain people eat the buzzwords they'll make it a self-fulfilled profecy.

"Wireless to replace the networking guy? Because wireless is just plug and play right?"

Quite a good example. In the last six months I've been in three SMBs that went to "all wireless" and deployed by amateurs too. No wonder one morning out of three they need to reboot the spots (the magic solution for all problems, it seems), they have "misterious" lags and efficiency problems from time to time... Are they going to go with cable? Hell no -it would be too expensive, cumbersome and everybody know wifi is the future! Instead, they cope with the lack of efficiency and the from-time-to-time hiring of an outside "expert" to a total cost obviously higher than cabling the damn office. Right now those problems is just "business as usual" and done with it, just like most people thinks that worms, misterious problems, reading a whole document to find a word instead of asking the computer to look it for them... is "business as usual" and the only way computers can work.

"He also proposes to move your email into the cloud. Clearly he never worked with regulators"

Oh, but it is the cloud providers the ones working with regulators, don't worry about that. On the other hand, all the "but regulators!" is very overstated. Regulators have not the slightest problem with outsourced services -no economy could sustain itself otherwise and both at the national and international levels heavy work is being done to find the nice spot both providers and consumers are interested in.

Sure, but... (1)

RichSad (1167605) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160214)

Sure what you say is true. There will always be work for true experts with experience. But people just entering the field need to consider how things are changing. The company I work at does not have a single server in house. We don't rent rackspace at colo. We are 100% cloud based. We consume SaaS services. We've been looking for a web ops lead and getting resumes from traditional IT people who are clueless about the new tools like Amazon EC2/S3, salesforce.com. They list off credentials about how many flavors of hardware switches they can configure. Those jobs are diminishing for sure. We can write off the anon poster as a poser. But some of the points he makes are indeed part of the reality facing IT. I've seen a number of great points in the comments here about regulations, privacy, yielding control of mission critical apps... But the solution isn't to cling to the past--its to look forward and say "how can we solve these problems in the cloud." For giant corporations maintaining server farms and in-house ops may make sense, but increasingly the services they need to remain competitive will be consumed over the cloud meaning they are suddenly thrust into the same problem space as a small startup PLUS all their existing challenges. I'm always amazed by the number of people who attack questions like our anon poser asked. It almost seems they are trying to convince themselves that their skills remain relevant. None of our micro-skills will be relevant forever. It's the macro-skills that matter. It's the problem solving skills that carry us forward. Of course the rules of the game will constantly evolve. A focus on hardware-side of IT will certainly limit your job opportunities in the future, whereas understanding how to configure and secure business workflows on the cloud will grow. So sure the poser may have been a newb, but if he's considering entering the IT workforce as a career, he's asking the right questions.

roflmaopmsl (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160024)

"Instead of organizations having their own Exchange guy, they will outsource it to the cloud."

Try outsourcing Exchange to the cloud when you only have a 100Meg connection, a half Terabyte database and you have 500 Outlook users to service, that many Outlook users into a 100Meg pipe doesn't work very well... Sure in 10 years time it may be possible to get Gigabit to the Internet but to make use of that your provider will need to be able to guarantee you that you have gigabit all the way to the data center where your Exchange is hosted, it's all fine and dandy have a gigabit to the local POP but if the backhaul circuit is only a gigabit as well and you are sharing that with all the other Telco customers you will hit problems.

Apart from the fact that a gigabit of connectivity even in ten years time will most likely have a per annum cost which is considerably more than the cost of buying a server and the Exchange licensing.

"Instead of having a bunch of network engineers, they will deploy wireless and no longer need cabling or current levels of network engineering services"

Hmmm, this is obviously going to require somebody to come up with a gigabit full duplex Wireless switch which can support 48 simultaneous connections and costs the same as a standard rack mount 48 port gigabit switch does... Of course I'm guessing that there will be some magical expansion of the radio spectrum - perhaps subspace communications ? That will then allow us to have several of these mythical wireless switches so we can have a few hundred users all working on gigabit wireless at the same time....

Re:roflmaopmsl (1)

bernywork (57298) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160226)

Given that you would be running in cached mode, once your users were up and running that would be fine. I've seen 80 users hanging off a 2Mb connection back to head office where Exchange was hosted, so 500 users... You could get away with 10Mb easily.

I don't know where you are now, but I get gig for 2.5k pcm with unlimited data. If you have 500 users then getting two to have telco redundancy is EXTREMELY affordable.

Everything made cheap, easy and boring (1)

fa2k (881632) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160028)

There is so much *great* tech in IT which can be used by anyone. Web servers, encryption, file sharing (both local and on the internet), and these are just some random examples... This will all go away, and I hate it.

Before electricity became ubiquitous, there were lots of great products that used hand-cranks and other genious mechanical systems. Now, living three days without electrical power would be a disaster. People will choose a electrical ("automatic") product over the mechanical one, even if the mechanical product is in all ways better.

The cloud (and web tech as well, I would argue) is going to be what everyone uses. It is generally easier to use, but there are lots of exceptional programs that aren't "cloud based". Sadly, the mainstream doesn't seem to be able to handle exceptions well, and will discard these. The cloud also makes more business sense, which always helps. If people depend on you (a business) 24/7, that's much better than if they interact with you 1000 times a day, and could easily find a replacement (think hosted e-mail vs. POP3 or running your own server).

I currently run a few linux/BSD machines at home, providing some very nice services for me.I recently realised that I will be like the people who make furniture in their garage, fix up old cars (I won't go into the new computerised cars), or even make simple electronic circuits. It can't be defended as an utilitarian thing any more, it's just a hobby. The cloud providers will be like huge chain stores, modern car makers and HP/Dell/Apple in comparison.

So in conclusion IT will be concentrated in large boring companies that know which products normal consumers and enterprises want, and provide them cheaply and easily. I'm actually depressed about this -- I thought that IT was something special: it has to do with how we learn, communicate and even think. Not only that, it can make millions of impossible tasks seem like a 1 hour job. When looking more closely however, telephone services, plumbing and automotive transportation were just as revolutionary. I can only hope that a new field of such great innovation will appear soon.

Re:Everything made cheap, easy and boring (1)

couchslug (175151) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160088)

".I recently realised that I will be like the people who make furniture in their garage, fix up old cars (I won't go into the new computerised cars), or even make simple electronic circuits."

Plenty of people work on "old" cars and trucks for utilitarian reasons. (In my area a forty-year-old truck is a common work vehicle.) It saves a shitload of money and will in future.

I get very well "paid" to service and repair my (old and newer) vehicles and am not alone as the enormous DIY market demonstrates. That won't change. Auto labor is expensive and compared to that quality tools are quite reasonable.

BTW:
The computers in new cars are only a barrier if you decide they are a barrier. Modern car systems are mostly well-documented and not terribly difficult to work on. Don't be intimidated.

The future changes so fast (1)

FyreMoon (528744) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160098)

10 years ago, business were just embracing the Internet. A lot of companies were letting go of Novell Netware and placing baby steps out there on the net.

In those last ten years, a vast amount of services we used have been forgotten. Does anyone still use MySpace or Lycos for instance. In a couple of years the names like Flickr, Facebook, Twitter and the like will be replaced by something more social and closer to the needs of the people.

In business, the idea of a computer on every desk will become a computer in every hand as the needs of computers become that of a personal experience. I can see a merge between the home and business more likely to happen where you have one device for your company that works equally well at home. Less requirements for being in a physical building give way to home based working or virtual office cubicles.

I can see the power being moved back to the client-server model which served us well until the advent of the PC. Now with the PC market beginning to wane, the client-server will become more the tiny box you plug in that gives you your wireless signal and virtual desktop environment as well as the connection to your ISP.

There will still be a need for someone to set these boxes up, so the sysadmin/network engineer becomes a similar role to the technical support engineer who drives to a location to repair a computer.

Perhaps there will be a direct connection with the brain in 10 years time, so you think what you want to do and the computer relays the images and audio as synaptic responses to and from the brain directly. That way there would be no need for a tablet or gestures of the hands or fingers. The potential for zombies would be more of a problem though!

Monetisation will work and advertising will die (4, Funny)

petes_PoV (912422) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160144)

Some time in the next 10 years somebody will crack the "problem" of micropayments: fractions of a penny. Once that happens then pretty much every website will cost something to visit - the commercial imperatives are too high for it to be otherwise. Apps will also charge on a per-use basis, rather than a buy once and use forever principle.

Once sites can charge 0.05p for a visitor to view a page, both the need for advertisers and the attraction they offer will become obsolete. Websites will make their money directly, and the iron grip around their testicles will pass from the search engines that pass them advertising eyeballs, to the brokers that process their micropayments - though there will be huge battles between the old regime: of Google and it's friends and the newcomers, from wherever they come.

I would expect the transition to be particularly painful, especially during the time when there are two iron-grips (one on each 'nad?) pulling in different directions. The resolution will come when part of the micropayment can be passed on to the referrer - whether search engine or linking site, in lieu of their lost advertising revenue - though we can expect the landscape of the 202x's to be a lot different, in terms of which companies are dominant.

extremly small team (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160158)

it'll probably look like what my departments looks like now... Two guys running the whole place. just enough problems for the bean counters to think we need an extra guy but not enough to justify it.

Asymmetry, crime, contracts, uniforms = dead cloud (1, Interesting)

vlm (69642) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160184)

I've been in cloud computing for about two decades. The marketing and buzzwords have changed, but not much else.

The fundamental problems with "cloud services" is asymmetry, crime, contracts, and uniforms.

Asymmetry is when you're losing $10K/day in revenue because emails from China are getting blocked, and your $19.95/month provider literally can't afford to fix it. Based on their projected profit, and cost of new sales, they're financially better off disposing of your account, complete with you paying an early termination fee. There is no such thing as "commodity service". You pay a cloud provider $20/month you get $20/month of service and not one penny more. You pay a local admin $7K/month you get $7K/month of service. If you're only getting $20/mo of service for $7000/mo of salary, that is a profound management failure. Outsourcing merely means the PHB will find a new way to cause $7K/mo of damage to the bottom line. Better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Crime is a big issue. Inside the USA things are every approaching 1984 soviet lifestyle... but cross international boundaries and its like dealing with pirates hundreds of years ago (in some cases, literally). If you outsource to China, you better be prepared to move everything including management team there, like recently happened to GE medical imaging, which is no longer a US company. If you have non-technical managers signing technical contracts, they literally might not even know they're giving away the store, until its too late. Managers in the USA are coddled because corporate and govt interests have merged in a fascist system here... its not like that when you cross international boundaries, its more like the wild west. Good luck, softie east coast city frat boy, in a border town of saloons, stagecoach robbers, and gunslingers (in some cases, literally).

Another problem is contracts. Non-technical users are too dumb to intelligently sign one, so they'll get ripped off. If you have a weak contract, you'll get identity thefted or have to pay for a lifetime. If you have a strong contract with endless credit checks, competitive bidding, DUN number verification, auditing, etc, you'll have a three month outage while switching to new providers... can your business survive 3 months without a fileserver or email? If so, you shouldn't be wasting the money on it to begin with.

Uniforms is the biggest problem. Back in ye old days, blue collar factories sometimes / often supplied uniforms for their wage slaves. In this enlightened era where the only jobs are selling insurance and homes to each other, we are expected to provide for ourselves, and show up at work appropriately clothed rather than nude and expect the boss to pay to dress us. For a decade we've had endless complaints about having to carry a crappy corporate issued locked down phone plus your "real" personal phone. I think the days of a company issued computer / phone are about as numbered as the days of a company issued pair of uniform pants... it'll never quite go away, but the vast majority of workers will simply provide their boss with their personal email addrs, and their personal cell phone number, and that'll be the end of that. Carry your personal laptop into work, plug into what amounts to a DMZ or extremely fast internet pipe, VNC or equivalent into some apps, firefox into other apps... Contractors already live this life, wage slaves will soon. The idea of my employer of the moment selecting my cell phone is frankly weirder than the idea of my employer of the moment selecting my business casual attire. My boss does not buy my socks, nor my car, and soon, not my cellphone and laptop.

Cloud (1)

ProzacPatient (915544) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160216)

I'll tell you what IT will look like in 10 years: We'll all have our heads in the cloud.
I'm getting tired of the old mainframe system getting plastered as something new and innovative, personally I'd like to see everybody return to the dirt.

What Will IT Look Like In 10 Years? (1)

poena.dare (306891) | more than 3 years ago | (#37160222)

What Will IT Look Like In 10 Years?

If IT candidates do not repent and better themselves, Corporations will inflict a terrible punishment on all IT workers. It will be a punishment greater than the deluge, such as one will never have seen before. Fire will fall from the sky and will wipe out a great many geeks, the good as well as the bad, sparing neither Windows nor Linux. The living will envy the dead. The work of Corporations will infiltrate even into the IT training classes. Cubicals and Copying Machines will be sacked.

What will IT look like in 10 years? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 3 years ago | (#37160240)

Nothing like Holly [wikipedia.org] , more's the pity.

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