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Has Plant Life Reached Its Limits?

timothy posted about a year and a half ago | from the just-give-it-more-plant-food dept.

Earth 209

hessian writes with this news from the New York Times: "Since 2000, Dr. [Steven] Running and his colleagues have monitored how much plant growth covers terra firma, using two NASA satellites in the agency's Earth Observing System. After they crunched the numbers, combining the current monitoring system's data with satellite observations dating back to 1982, they noticed that terrestrial plant growth, also known as net primary production, remained relatively constant. Over the course of three decades, the observed plant growth on dry land has been about 53.6 petagrams of carbon each year, Dr. Running writes in the article. This suggests that plants' overall productivity — including the corn that humans grow and the trees people log for paper products — is changing little now, no matter how mankind tries to boost it, he said."

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209 comments

First (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423413)

First plant

Has plant life reached its limits? (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423557)

I think you should ask Romney directly; instead of branching out, just go for the root of the matter.

Although honestly, I think he's more of a fungus than a plant...

Re:Has plant life reached its limits? (0, Redundant)

Grishnakh (216268) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423833)

I think your statement is highly insulting to fungus.

Re:Has plant life reached its limits? (0, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424223)

I think your statement is highly insulting to fungus.

That's odd, because I think it has fuck all to do with the topic at hand and is yet another attempt to bring about a flamewar over US politics.

Re:Has plant life reached its limits? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424771)

Fungi actually are more biologically advanced, by far, than plants and animals. The only reason you aren't one of Lord Fungi's thousands of robotically raised food sources is because fungi, for the most part, cannot move around. If they could, they'd dominate the planet.

Hmmm... (4, Insightful)

NettiWelho (1147351) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423459)

I dont think there will be any actual planetary limits on crop production, just the matter of understading all of variables and how they interact.

Re:Hmmm... (3, Interesting)

fustakrakich (1673220) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423515)

All limits are political. And the whole thing sounds like bullshit. Somebody's trying to work the commodities market.

Re:Hmmm... (1, Interesting)

Taco Cowboy (5327) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424683)

All limits are political.

Can't be more true than that.

Hemp is band in many many countries just because some species of hemp happen to be marijuana.

But the use of the hemp plant is much more than marijuana.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemp [wikipedia.org]

http://www.informationdistillery.com/hemp.htm [informatio...illery.com]

http://www.treehugger.com/environmental-policy/perfect-plant-7-great-uses-for-industrial-hemp.html [treehugger.com]

And most importantly, hemp grows very fast, and it can be grown in many soil types and also under various climate (from damp to arid) condition.

If that researcher took into account on the cultivation of hemp his conclusion would have been different.
 

Re:Hmmm... (5, Interesting)

budgenator (254554) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424851)

Well, "primary production increase" => google.com = about 134,000,000 results (0.27 seconds)

The results surprised Steven Running of the University of Montana and Ramakrishna Nemani of NASA, scientists involved in analyzing the NASA satellite data. They found that over a period of almost two decades, the Earth as a whole became more bountiful by a whopping 6.2%. About 25% of the Earth’s vegetated landmass — almost 110 million square kilometres — enjoyed significant increases and only 7% showed significant declines. When the satellite data zooms in, it finds that each square metre of land, on average, now produces almost 500 grams of greenery per year. Surprise: Earths’ Biosphere is Booming, Satellite Data Suggests CO2 the Cause [wattsupwiththat.com]

or if you want original sources

Recent climatic changes have enhanced plant growth in northern mid-latitudes and high latitudes. However, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of global climatic changes on vegetation productivity has not before been expressed in the context of variable limiting factors to plant growth. We present a global investigation of vegetation responses to climatic changes by analyzing 18 years (1982 to 1999) of both climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Our results indicate that global changes in climate have eased several critical climatic constraints to plant growth, such that net primary production increased 6% (3.4 petagrams of carbon over 18 years) globally. The largest increase was in tropical ecosystems. Amazon rain forests accounted for 42% of the global increase in net primary production, owing mainly to decreased cloud cover and the resulting increase in solar radiation. Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999 [sciencemag.org]

Oh who wrote that paper? " Ramakrishna R. Nemani1,*,, Charles D. Keeling2, Hirofumi Hashimoto1,3, William M. Jolly1, Stephen C. Piper2 Compton J. Tucker4, Ranga B. Myneni5, Steven W. Running1
Yes, I suspect your BS meter is running true. There seems to be a discontinuity between what Dr. Running said in 2003 about primary production and what he's saying in 2012.

Re:Hmmm... (3, Funny)

ericloewe (2129490) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423655)

Hey, you have to tell us what bullshit generator you use, it actually sounds insightful to those who read the first part of the sentence.

Re:Hmmm... (1)

wavedeform (561378) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423813)

I dont think there will be any actual planetary limits on crop production, just the matter of understading all of variables and how they interact.

Is the planet infinitely big?

Re:Hmmm... (2)

flaming error (1041742) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424363)

No, but it doesn't matter! As things get more scarcer they get more expensiver. So we just print more money, and buy it! Economy 3.0, baby!

Or we substitute things. Run out of oil? Burn Hydrogen! Run out of bread? Eat cake!

As long as our rate of breeding is at least twice our GDP, there's nothing humans can really do to affect our ecosystem. And even if we could, surely the ingenuity of our children will solve any problem we could possibly cause them.

Or so I understand conventional wisdom to be.

But are we really trying? (5, Insightful)

Shavano (2541114) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423473)

What we're trying to do is grow SPECIFIC plants that are useful to people. We have never cared much if at all that what we are really doing is converting areas that grow one kind of plant to grow another kind of plant. If we were trying to increase primary production, no doubt we could do that, but we would be up against the same things that limit agriculture now: mainly water availability. But if you built a lot of greenhouses and water recycling systems we could probably increase primary production substantially.

Re:But are we really trying? (4, Insightful)

fustakrakich (1673220) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423669)

...mainly water availability.

The stuff falls out of the sky every day. We just have distribution issues, only a tiny percentage of which is technical. But be ready for real fast and massive climate change if we were to suddenly 'green the deserts'.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423755)

We are greening the desert. More rain has fallen in the Sahara in the last decade than in the previous two millenia. I doubt htis is good.

Re:But are we really trying? (4, Insightful)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423973)

We are greening the desert. More rain has fallen in the Sahara in the last decade than in the previous two millenia. I doubt htis is good.

Why would it be bad? The Sahara has been growing for several hundred years, and halting or reversing that growth could well be positive.

Re:But are we really trying? (3, Interesting)

TapeCutter (624760) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424599)

Look up "Hadley cells" and the effect AGW has on them, there is very little doubt the Sahara and the rest of the sub-tropical deserts will continue to expand. This is despite the fact that on a global scale rainfall will increase, in fact it probably already has since global average humidity has already risen 4% in the last 4 decades. We are going to have a rough time watching the deserts bite into the grain belts as they expand poleward. Possibly we can redistribute the water but there will also be floods since there is now more rain to fall but (globally) a smaller overall area where conditions are right for it to fall. According to NOAA something like 30,000 norther hemisphere species have been observed adapting to AGW by shifting their normal range pole ward in the last few decades.

From personal experience I have seen the bird species here in Oz move southward since I was a kid in the 60's. I'm sure the biosphere will adapt, and in the long run out live us. It's interesting to look at it like feedback, in that even though it is we humans that are driving the rate of those adaptations I'm not sure that humans can keep pace with the biosphere's adaptations. We are the (macro) species most capable of doing so and "all we have to do" is stop, or at least significantly slow, our efforts to set fire to every last ounce of the already sequestrated carbon. In other words, over the next century the adaptation humans will be forced to make as a species will be to aquire the gene that stops them from in their own nest.

Re:But are we really trying? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424733)

humans are transient..the sooner we all figure it out the better off we'll be.
everything is transient, most species are stupid enough that this isn't an issue though.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

rrohbeck (944847) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424879)

In other words, over the next century the adaptation humans will be forced to make as a species will be to aquire the gene that stops them from in their own nest.

Only the hard way, after significant overshoot.
As long as birth rates don't drop significantly people haven't gotten the message.
Actually I fear a (temporary) positive feedback, as only the religious/optimistic/cornucopian breed.

Re:But are we really trying? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41425101)

You're an idiot.

Re:But are we really trying? (5, Insightful)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423763)

What we're trying to do is grow SPECIFIC plants that are useful to people. We have never cared much if at all that what we are really doing is converting areas that grow one kind of plant to grow another kind of plant. If we were trying to increase primary production, no doubt we could do that, but we would be up against the same things that limit agriculture now: mainly water availability. But if you built a lot of greenhouses and water recycling systems we could probably increase primary production substantially.

Well, that's a nice theory, but its simply not true.

The amount of land dedicated to farming has not substantially increased, (in fact it has decreased) as farming becomes more efficient. Vast tracts of the
midwest have returned to forest because there is simply no economic need to keep these lands under the plow.

This whole theory is nothing but a huge rehash of the Limits To Growth, cited in TFA. Yet 40 years hence, LTG has been proven wrong in just about every single prediction they made [reason.com]. Their methodology and assumptions were simply wrong.

Measurement of plant tonnage via satellite imagery has revealed that plants still grow just about everywhere they ever did. Wow. Major revelation.

Yet the satellites seem to miss the fact that global food production has more than tripled since 1961, and worldwide, we are only using 7% more land in the process. In North America Europe, and Russia, we are actually cultivating less land, and producing vastly more food. Marginal lands have fallen fallow, and returned to prairie or forest of a 2 hundred years ago.

Measuring the area covered by plants says nothing about the tonnage harvested every year off of that land. Nor does it say anything about the reduced pollution produced in the process, and the return of natural flora coverage. The total forest area [nationalatlas.gov] in the U.S. has been relatively stable for the last 100 years (currently about 747 million acres). The species may change (they always have over time). But its not because we have converted the land to farming. For the last 100 years, the biggest threat to forests has been housing development, not farming.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

symbolset (646467) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423935)

Trees are just another crop.

Re:But are we really trying? (3, Funny)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424011)

Trees are the default crop. Been this way since mankind was swinging from branch to branch,

Re:But are we really trying? (5, Informative)

symbolset (646467) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424139)

Of course the question about terrestrial crops completely ignores the fact that the world is about 70% ocean. In terms of the ability of plants to convert solar energy to carbon trapping, the ocean has always had far more impact than the land does. In the ocean the entire height of the water column that solar energy can reach is teeming with algae doing photosynthesis - and below that other forms of life feed on the detritus. The evolution and distribution of various forms of algae and plankton are far more important.

Re:But are we really trying? (2)

bbelt16ag (744938) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424529)

another crop that we can harvest and create food and energy out of. I watched a ted talk a few nights ago that was just amazing the amount of energy these little buggers can hold.

Re:But are we really trying? (5, Interesting)

symbolset (646467) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424897)

Yeah, it's impressive. Almost nothing grows so fast as seaweed. Given the recent lesson of Japan tsunami debris we could probably just let an Algae farm go from Japan and harvest it on the West Coast of the US as it grew drifting across the open ocean. No need for fertilization, or weed management or any other service. Maybe other types of open sea aquaculture too like fish pens or mussel farms. In fact, by mixing the types the algae promote other sea life like plankton that the fish eat, and the fish feces feed the mussels and provide nitrogen for the algae, leveraging the lifecycle even more. And the mussels make mussel shells, which are primarily CaCO3 - so they reliably capture CO2 in a form that isn't readily released again. We can eat the seaweed, feed it to cattle, or process it for fuel - and it's useful for industrial chemical uses as well. The fish are protein. Probably get a good bit of bycatch as well like crabs, and no doubt shrimp and other types of sea life will swarm about the periphery of the farms. These farms could cover whole square miles each and work the ocean 150 feet deep. And we could work hundreds of thousands, or millions of them at a time - and feed the world's growing population for another hundred years.

Add some solar powered geotracking satellite comm tech and shipping warning systems and we could put near-unlimited tracts of Pacific Ocean under agriculture. Wherever the farms wander, when it's time we can go harvest them. And then we can give those ships from China something to take back with them besides coal: the rigging framework the open sea farms are made of.

We do need some new international agreements though to make it work because right now anybody who wanders out and catches such a thing on the open ocean is free to harvest it.

I would like to see an experiment taken with just one buoy with a 100m cable drop supporting a ladder of buoyancy neutral arms 100 meters long every 20 meters or so of depth seeded with seaweed and mussels and dropped off of Japan in a current likely to take it to the US west coast. Let it go and see what you get. I'm thinking it would turn into a seaweedburg of epic proportions: a 100m radius, 100m deep cylinder of biomass rich in all forms of sea life, completely surrounded by a diverse variety of ocean creature feeding off it and its detritus.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

nitehawk214 (222219) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424167)

Trees are the default crop. Been this way since mankind was swinging from branch to branch,

So then it is trees and vines are the default crops.

You repeat the same lies! LTG is NOT wrong! (5, Informative)

EnergyScholar (801915) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424465)

Limits To Growth has never been proven wrong. This lie, originally created by Economists, has been told, and retold, and retold again, and I see it again in that Reason article, which I just read. Same lies! Try this: Go out and buy the original 1973 Limits to Growth book. Read it and look at the numbers. Now get CURRENT data on the same items. Compare. You will find that they match strikingly well.

The anti-Limits to Growth hatchet jobs tend to use the same lies. The standard approach, which is REPEATED in that lame Reason article, is to deliberately misinterpret LTG as predicting stuff it never said, then 'proving' that misinterpretation wrong. It's the standard 'Straw Man' argument, and that wretched Reason article does it AGAIN.

To repeat myself: go out and buy the original 1973 Limits to Growth book, or any of the more recent ones. Read it and look at the numbers. Now get HISTORICAL data on the same items. Compare. You will find that they match strikingly well. Nothing in Limits to Growth has been proven wrong, that is a FALSE MEME that represents a triumph of Disinformation.

Re:You repeat the same lies! LTG is NOT wrong! (1)

rrohbeck (944847) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424901)

Mod parent up!
LTG is more applicable than ever with Peak Everything looming (or already here, for some values of "Everything".)

Re:You repeat the same lies! LTG is NOT wrong! (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41425113)

I repeat my self, you're an IDIOT.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

bbelt16ag (744938) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424527)

I concur! Housing needs a reboot, its the most wasteful buildings on the planet. They need to be smarter, cooler, and most of all closer to cities, with mass transit. the next thing they need to do with agriculture is limit the stupid pesticides that are killing the bees, and they might want to make new ones since the other animals are growing immune.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

DevilM (191311) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424861)

Yea for yield increases! However, you failed to mention that ~80% of all arable land is currently in use. Grain productivity peaked years ago. And, depending on whether you like conservative or liberal estimates, we are going to need anywhere from a 40%-60% increase in productivity to mean the demands of the population in just a few decades.

Did I mention the amount of arable land is also on the decline?

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41425039)

Wrong.
Less arable land is in use for farming today than any other time in the last 100 years. Do some research instead of spouting dogma.

Re:But are we really trying? (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424203)

What we're trying to do is grow SPECIFIC plants that are useful to people. We have never cared much if at all that what we are really doing is converting areas that grow one kind of plant to grow another kind of plant

We're also engaging in land "management" practices which result in these particular quantities of biomass. Rainforest beef, clear cutting, et cetera.

we would be up against the same things that limit agriculture now: mainly water availability

Not really. There's not too much of a shortage of contaminated water, and some plants will grow in pretty nasty water. Some species of bamboo stand out in this category, and they have the added benefit of being materially useful. Cutting down plants and making stuff out of them is one way to take carbon out of the atmosphere, and you don't have to do much to bamboo to make it useful as a building material.

Re:But are we really trying? (2)

hairyfeet (841228) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424419)

I think what the guy meant is the actual scientific limits are never reached thanks to political BS, with commodities you have subsidies and protectionism and hand outs constantly distorting the market so we never get to see what is actually able to be accomplished thanks to political crap.

If that is what he meant? I have to say I agree, because the scientific method has never really been allowed to deal with crops on a large scale because of big agriculture and government being such friendly bedfellows. You get paid not to grow, or they distort the market so that one crop is worth a hell of a lot more than it should be, and that throws the science right out the window because who is gonna turn down "free" money?

But I agree 100%, with water recyclers and desalination plants and greenhouses we could probably make deserts into breadbaskets but again here comes politics, you'll get the greenies screaming about threatening some lizard and the big agri lobbyists demanding protection and soon the whole thing would be another political clusterfuck.

Re:But are we really trying? (0)

bbelt16ag (744938) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424561)

Hmmm. sounds likes the populous is lazy and not doing what they are suppose to do? Influencing the government to get what is needed. Now i realize that there is the disconnect between US, and the GOV. That MUST be taken care OF. I don't care if we got to bang on the door of the senate to get them to listen and stop taking orders from the Corps.

Or, another way to look at it... (5, Insightful)

EmagGeek (574360) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423483)

... no matter how much plant matter humans harvest for various reasons, the Earth is able to replenish it to its maximum level.

Re:Or, another way to look at it... (5, Interesting)

Guppy (12314) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423985)

... no matter how much plant matter humans harvest for various reasons, the Earth is able to replenish it to its maximum level.

Globally perhaps. But maybe not with the original species useful to humans, or in the same place.

For instance, deforestation often leads to erosion and topsoil loss (see Haiti), such that even if human harvesting pressure were reduced, the forests could not grow back, instead being replaced by deserts, or grasses and scrub vegetation. The nutrients in the lost soil may end up being dispersed by wind and water, aiding plant growth elsewhere, such that global vegetative production does not suffer. But that doesn't help the local inhabitants much.

Re:Or, another way to look at it... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424769)

Haiti fail and yet the Dominican Republic hums along, maybe the answer to the question is something you and like minded fools do not want to admit?

Learn about Carrying Capacity (2)

EnergyScholar (801915) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424519)

... no matter how much plant matter humans harvest for various reasons, the Earth is able to replenish it to its maximum level.

Nope, the universe does not work that way, no matter how much we would like it to be so. You seem lack a basic understanding of ecological carrying capacity. When any species transgresses the carrying capacity of an ecosystem, it permanently reduces the carrying capacity of that ecosystem. This is basic Biology. The Reindeer of St. Matthew Island illustrate this point very well [stuartmcmillen.com]. In the future, please learn the basics of the topic before spouting off your (un) scientific opinion.

Technology (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423485)

1. Figure out how to harness nuclear fusion for practically free energy.
2. Desalinate seawater and pump it into the deserts.
3. ???
4. Profit!!!

Re:Technology (1)

fustakrakich (1673220) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423725)

Why would you want to spend all the energy desalinating seawater when nature already does it? Massive floating rain barrels.. That's the ticket... Or better yet, just grow the plants in man made floating islands where the rain is.

HEMP!!!!! (0, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423493)

Hemp!!!!
Better than corn.
Produces more .....
Clothing,
Fuel,
Meds,
Air,
And many other uses...

But they made it illegal because there is now way to make a profit off WEED!!!!

Re:HEMP!!!!! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423785)

But they made it illegal because there is now way to make a profit off WEED!!!!

Just tax the coffee shops... as soon as you get over your insane drugs policy.

Re:HEMP!!!!! (1)

zippthorne (748122) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424431)

Why would there be no way to profit off of an addictive drug that comes from a processed agricultural product? It doesn't seem to have stopped companies from making money off of tobacco, and it's not really good for anything else.

Re:HEMP!!!!! (1)

BlueStrat (756137) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424659)

Why would there be no way to profit off of an addictive drug that comes from a processed agricultural product? It doesn't seem to have stopped companies from making money off of tobacco, and it's not really good for anything else.

I don't know about the addictive part. Habit-forming? Probably. But that's not what TFA is about. It's about hemp, which is a slightly different thing than marijuana, which is what you refer to by talking about a drug.

However *hemp*, grown for fiber etc, has very little psychoactive substances. Smoking hemp gets you a cough and lung damage, but little in the way of a "buzz".

Anyways, the key with tobacco being a better tax source is because raising, harvesting, and curing tobacco properly is difficult, heavily-regulated, and expensive. The taxing and regulating infrastructure for tobacco is also already in place.

On the other hand, growing hemp/marijuana is relatively easy, simple, and cheap, and can be done indoors in the case of marijuana. Little or no taxing and regulating infrastructure is in place, especially at the Federal level.

There's also the issue of the US prison system, the privately run prisons in particular, that would be in danger of financial collapse if the huge steady influx of marijuana users busted for possession/paraphernalia and small-time dealers/distributors were to stop, never mind if a large percentage of the current population convicted and sentenced for possession and small-time dealing/distribution etc were to be released.

This results in tobacco being much easier, cheaper, and more attractive for the government to tax and regulate.

Combined with lobbying and campaign contributions from a number of various interests, from social conservative groups to cotton, wool, and other textile and materials-related commercial interests, and let's not forget "big pharma" protecting it's market for a wide range of profitable pharmaceuticals, there is a huge combined pressure to keep hemp and marijuana illegal in the US.

Like always, follow the money.

Strat

Re:HEMP!!!!! (1)

EnergyScholar (801915) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424545)

Interesting that that comment was modded down. It related directly to the conversation and the article. The hemp advocates might be annoying and sometimes incoherent, but what they say is also, in general, entirely true and correct.

I have an idea... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423519)

...Start killing humans, letting their property go fallow and consumed by nature once again.

Doesn't get any simpler than that.

Re:I have an idea... (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423617)

That's a great idea! Let's kill you first.

Re:I have an idea... (2)

lightknight (213164) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423643)

Yes, because I'm fairly certain that the plant kingdom, given the choice of continuing to 'put up with' the human species, who has a chance of getting off this rock and possibly finding new planets / terraforming a new earth, or having them suddenly culled, giving them a slight increase in land (but ultimately destroying a lot of fertility) would happily choose the latter.

Because we've finally, I don't know, gotten around to commercial space rocket launches, and step two of colonizing a new planet is planting things we can eat / help us. Since humans run on oxygen, and plants are pretty nifty at producing a excess of breathable air (albeit from CO2, and a handful of right conditions), this would probably factor into our plans.

Re:I have an idea... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424061)

" of getting off this rock "

And they say there are no Space Nutters out there.... Tell me, aren't all the other planets just "rocks" too?

Re:I have an idea... (2)

zippthorne (748122) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424437)

The more rocks we are on, the less important any one particular rock becomes.

Re:I have an idea... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424803)

What's it like being fucking nuts?
Fascinating!

Developing Marginal Lands (5, Informative)

BoRegardless (721219) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423525)

The MidEast represents instructive activities of man over 10-20 thousand years.

Farming started between Turkey and Iraq of today, the fertile crescent, but land salting and rainfall reductions reduced that output. About 10,000 years ago the inland valleys of Egypt were incredibly productive, but later rainfall reductions then reduced that to desert.

Hence, natural rainfall changes altered growth a lot.

Man induced changes in that same region has caused vegetation to increase in one spot where there is economic incentive to figure out how to grow plants in marginal lands. Israel. They have developed techniques to make it work. Other peoples in the area haven't been as diligent.

Overall, maybe it is merely the cost-benefit ratio that determines whether mankind develops marginal lands.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423805)

Israel. They have developed techniques to make it work. Other peoples in the area haven't been as diligent.

May as well get this [blogspot.com] out of the way

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

interval1066 (668936) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423831)

About 10,000 years ago the inland valleys of Egypt were incredibly productive

The Nile basin and its tributaries remain some of the most fertile land in the world producing vast amounts of grain, dates, and other dry goods, and this hasn't changed for thousands of years. What does constantly change is the political climate of the region, regional conflict disupts the distribution of the Nile Delta output, affecting Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and really the whole of north Aftrica. Border wars perpetuate blight in the region, and have for thousands of years, mismanagement and global warming have had a much lesser impact than the region's political climate. plus a drought that affected every country in the region except Egypt didn't help.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

BoRegardless (721219) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423923)

The pale-geologists have mapped inland valleys of Egypt, whose runoff formerly went to the Nile, which were incredibly productive and laced with rivers and lakes 7000 years ago which are now desert. Those are the formerly productive regions I was referring to.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (2)

TapeCutter (624760) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424783)

Yes, also 12K yrs ago (this is from my faulty memory), the Nile ran west across the Sahara and nomadic humans inhabited the area in large numbers, a geological shift in the mountains where the Nile originates made it turn North along it's present course, creating a desert and dispersing the nomads but at the same time forming the fertile Nile valley. Another similar large scale river movement in Pakistan also dispersed the vast civilization that had arisen around it.

Here in Australia many of the dairy farmers along the Murray-Darling basin deliberately flood their land using a system of dams and channels, they control the mini-flood and their pasture is both watered and fertilized. Of course the Basin is stretched to it's agricultural limits and they can't do this in drought years. When overdone it does cause horrendous problems downstream, when no water is left at the mouth (as is often the case for most of the worlds developed rivers) saltwater creeps inland and kills everything.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

rrohbeck (944847) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424949)

Don't forget the Aswan dam.
What made the Nile valley fertile was the periodic deposition of mud by flooding.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (4, Informative)

ppanon (16583) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423927)

Israel. They have developed techniques to make it work.

Yes, and those techniques involve irrigation using so much water taken from the Jordan River that the Sea of Galilee [marinebuzz.com] and the Dead Sea [smithsonianmag.com] have shrunk dramatically. At this point unless something drastic [jewishjournal.com] is done, in another 40 years Palestinians on the "West Bank" will be able to drive to Jordan.

But yeah, those "techniques" are totally sustainable with no side effects, aren't they?

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

phantomfive (622387) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424133)

Why has the rainfall been reduced? Serious question.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

aNonnyMouseCowered (2693969) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424447)

"Why has the rainfall been reduced? Serious question."

More like, why has the rainfall been diverted? The only thing that can really reduce total rainfall is global cooling. Unless it's the sort that would cause oceans to boil, global warming should produce more rain. Drought somewhere produces floods elsewhere.

Changes in wind pattern are probably a major factor in this. Also deserts might produce a feedback loop where warm, dry land reduces the evaporation in a given land area or prevents rain from falling, which causes the land to be even warmer and drier.

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424333)

the sad thing is, that even after 10-20 thousand years the people in that region still remain the same, dumb as the sand they live in and gullible enough to start a war over some dude shouting he saw gawd

Re:Developing Marginal Lands (1)

rrohbeck (944847) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424931)

The Saudis sucked their aquifer dry irrigating wheat fields, had to give up large scale grain growing, and these days irrigate with desalinated sea water, powered by oil and gas.
Within 15 years they will fall down the cliff way harder than Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

450 Million Years vs. 3 decades (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423565)

Plant life has existed on land for 450 million years, which is plenty of time to reach an equilibrium where the total mass is no longer growing. It's actually a relief that human impact on the environment doesn't appreciably alter this equilibrium on the time frame of a few decades. Why is anyone surprised that there is a finite limit and that it is not subject to increase?

Still regions can be more productive (4, Interesting)

TheSync (5291) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423567)

There are huge areas where very poor people are living on subsistence agriculture in small plots that are not very productive, especially in Africa and the backwaters of India and China.

Eventually these small plots will be joined into huge efficient and more productive farms with GPS-optimized fertilization and irrigation.

All it would really take is true land ownership rights by the current farmers (many countries do not allow their poor farmers to own the land, its ownership is governmental or transfers are highly restricted), as well as some investment in infrastructure. The first would allow farmers to sell their small plots into larger farms, and the second would make it worth the investment in the large farms to be able to bring the produce out effectively.

More development of service or manufacturing jobs would also be needed to absorb many of the current farm workers, as the larger efficient farms would be more automated and need fewer workers.

Re:Still regions can be more productive (1)

houghi (78078) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423845)

We will be there to help these people to increase production. We will be there to help them to get huge efficient and more productive farms with GPS-optimized fertilization and irrigation.

From our website [monsanto.ca]:

If there were one word to explain what Monsanto is about, it would have to be farmers.
Billions of people depend upon what farmers do. And so will billions more. In the next few decades, farmers will have to grow as much food as they have in the past 10,000 years â" combined.
It is our purpose to help farmers do exactly that.
To produce more food.
To produce more with less, conserving resources like soil and water.
And to improve lives.
We do this by selling seeds, traits developed through biotechnology, and crop protection chemicals.

We will be there for you, together with our friends in government.

Kind regards,

Monsanto Management

Re:Still regions can be more productive (2)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423849)

I agree that Land ownership rights by individual farmers would, all by itself, improve production, and also improve preservation of the soil.
If the land is theirs, people take care of it. Given just a modicum of education, even subsistence agricultural yields are expected
to increase by 50 percent in the next 30 years [royalsocie...ishing.org].

There would be no real need to sell it off to larger farms (this type of farming really only works well on flat land suitable for mechanization).
With more production comes greater wealth. With greater wealth comes fewer pointless babies.

Re:Still regions can be more productive (1)

aNonnyMouseCowered (2693969) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424543)

"I agree that Land ownership rights by individual farmers would, all by itself, improve production, and also improve preservation of the soil."

No, it won't. Or at least it's not a silver bullet. Unless the individual farmer can grow everything by himself/herself, a farmer needs to sell his produce in order to buy the other food and items that he needs, meat, fertilizer, pest control, cellphone service etc. This would require access to fair markets not denominated by monopolies that can dictate the price at which he can sell his produce.

Without the right infrastructure, a small farmer would be forced to sell his land to larger farmers, which may or may not be a good thing. Or the land would be bought by individual or corporations not interested at all in agriculture but in building shopping malls and other higher value developments.

I don't know (2)

Lord Lode (1290856) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423569)

What can 30 years of observation tell about billions of years of plant life?

I, for one, think plant life will be there for a long time after humanity. Util it gets swallowed by the red giant sun.

Re:I don't know (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424337)

What can 30 years of observation tell about billions of years of plant life?

Given that in those 30 years we've been observing what was around billions of years ago, quite a lot.

Jumping to conclusions... (3, Interesting)

Genda (560240) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423575)

Everyone here seems to be adding their own opinions none of which are suggested or demonstrated in the article. The basis for the conversation is that the green revolution should have made it possible for us to increase the green biomass. What we're seeing is that the green we grow is offset by wild green that grows less and the total green biomass remains constant. This isn't to say it will remain constant for any arbitrary length of time.

So this tells us we can grow one 2500 sequoia, or a similar mass of corn or wheat or soybeans in any given year. We also know that the tropical forests are under assault and because the wealth if tropical forests tend to be in their canopy and not their soul, a cleared area results in erosion and growing desertification. It will be interesting to see in 10 years when we can begin to see what the legacy of slash and burn forest clearing is doing to the Tropical places on earth. Add to that heat stress and drought and we will be seeing new and interesting changes.

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (3, Insightful)

icebike (68054) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423921)

Everyone here seems to be adding their own opinions none of which are suggested or demonstrated in the article. The basis for the conversation is that the green revolution should have made it possible for us to increase the green biomass.

No, there is no such "basis for the conversation", and there never was.

Wherever did you get this idea that it was "possible for us to increase the green biomass", or the idea that we were even trying to do that?

Earth reached its carrying capacity for plant life several hundred million years ago. Mankind is not going to increase or decrease that. Mankind doesn't even know how to begin to control the total biomass. The earth is on an energy budget dictated by the sun. Plants are going to grow at their own rate, and they are going to cover the earth wherever there is sun and water.

That this guy, staring at photos taken in the mere past 30 years, sees no change is indication that things are working exactly as they always have. Totally out of the control of man.

This study doesn't tell us about capabilities (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424183)

Earth reached its carrying capacity for plant life several hundred million years ago. Mankind is not going to increase or decrease that. Mankind doesn't even know how to begin to control the total biomass. The earth is on an energy budget dictated by the sun.

I was going to reply to the parent to your comment but then I saw this and decided I had to kill two birds.

The Earth's energy budget is only one part of the equation. A lot of that energy budget is not being used to grow plants, and some of what isn't probably could be. The other major parts of the equation are human influence and CO2. Plants are mostly made out of carbon and virtually all of the carbon they're made from comes from the air. If you increase global CO2 then you can, in theory, make more plants. However, humans don't seem to be interested in increasing global plant mass, not as a species anyway. It's clearly desirable; you can mitigate (or even solve) the carbon problem, and there is continuous ongoing demand for plant products.

Now, I hope you will forgive me if I address a point of the parent.

[by Genda (560240)] What we're seeing is that the green we grow is offset by wild green that grows less and the total green biomass remains constant. This isn't to say it will remain constant for any arbitrary length of time.

So this tells us we can grow one 2500 sequoia, or a similar mass of corn or wheat or soybeans in any given year

No, that tells us that we do grow x amount of biomass per year, not that we can grow x amount. Humanity's primary goal is not the production of more biomass, so we don't know how much we're capable of producing. This does not in fact tell us anything about anything.

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (1)

Hatta (162192) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424715)

Wherever did you get this idea that it was "possible for us to increase the green biomass", or the idea that we were even trying to do that?

If the limiting factor for plant growth is something other than incident sunlight, then it should be possible to increase the green biomass. One such factor could be fixed nitrogen [nih.gov]. Biological sources fix about 200Tg of nitrogen per year, the Haber process fixes about 100Tg. It's certainly not unreasonable to hypothesize that this could have a measureable effect on the Earth's total green biomass.

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (1)

the biologist (1659443) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424189)

The whole point of the Green Revolution was to make our crop plants more efficient at making food for us. Total biological output from the crops has not increased.

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (1)

the plant doctor (842044) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424577)

The whole point of the Green Revolution was to make our crop plants more efficient at making food for us. Total biological output from the crops has not increased.

I'm puzzled by this comment. Isn't increased efficiency leading to higher biological output from plants?

Plant one hectare of inbred corn, and one hectare of hybrid corn. Fertilize and control pests in exactly the same way and you're telling me the biological output of hybrid corn isn't greater?

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (1)

the biologist (1659443) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424927)

Higher output in the context of what we eat, lower output in the context of 'wasted' stem material that we don't eat. Fertilizers/etc have led to increases in overall productivity, but the biggest gains have been made through altering the development to reallocate resources to the product we use.

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (3, Insightful)

the biologist (1659443) | about a year and a half ago | (#41425057)

Modern wheat and rice are very short compared to the varieties in use before the Green Revolution. The height of the older strains allowed the plants to grow over the weeds. Modern farm chemicals did away with the weeds, which did improve yields. Without those weeds, the plants were now wasting much of their resources in growing tall. The Green Revolution, at least as I think of that term, came about when people realized the plants were wasting resources and that this waste could be reduced through directed breeding towards certain traits rather than just breeding for best yield in a generalized sense.

The heterosis, hybrid vigor, taken advantage of in corn is definitely part of the current high yields. And yes, this probably is best described as part of the Green Revolution as applied to corn. That said, modern corns are also far shorter than historic varieties, with less energy going to produce the stems and more to produce seeds. Theres a lot of factors which go into it.

Has this clarified my thinking?

Re:Jumping to conclusions... (1)

king neckbeard (1801738) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424507)

This article seems to be lacking important details, such as what percentage of this biomass is human cultivated. If say, 95% of the biomass in 1982 was wild plant growth, then even if we had quadrupled the 5% of human cultivated biomass with no losses elsewhere, then we'd only be at 115% of the 1982 biomass. And this isn't considering the losses of biomass due to land development and such.

Quantity != Quality (4, Insightful)

onyxruby (118189) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423589)

Quantity of plant life does equal quality of plant life, much less diversity of plant life. Simply saying we have "X" isn't that terribly helpful without context.

So I'll provide some context and let's put a twist on this story which is being spun for political gain. In the year 1980 we had 4,453,831,714 people (the study starts in 1982 but close enough) In [infoplease.com] just 30 years the world's population grew 6,848,932,929.

Over the course of three decades, the observed plant growth on dry land has been about 53.6 petagrams of carbon each year

In other words, we have grown the population of the world by 50% in thirty years and we still kept just as much plant life. Job well done with planting things to compensate for a growing population! We don't need to change a thing, we doing everything right. Neither answer is right of course, they are both ways of spinning a set of meaningless facts.

Point of the matter is that any given set of statistics can be twisted for a given political agenda with ease. The only thing this study does is show how easily meaningless data can be slanted for gain political purposes when the data is without merit. All it does is measure quantity without context. Might as well say a ranchers supports incredible wildlife, there's 200 cows and a dozen field mice.

Got geologic time scale? (1)

voodoo cheesecake (1071228) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423683)

A 30 year peephole seems rather negligible in the greater context. Exactly what agenda are you trying to push with this article by claiming plant growth has reached its limit?

Cory yield chart 1860 to now (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41423707)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/16/a-brief-history-of-u-s-corn-in-one-chart/

The line doesn't look too flat over the last 30 years.

Re:Cory yield chart 1860 to now (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424567)

You aren't the sharpest tool in the shed, are you?

Ooh, I see cornucopians abound (1)

rrohbeck (944847) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423891)

Did anybody notice that this leveling off of plant biomass is *despite* the enormous amounts of energy spent on irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides, aka the Green Revolution, and industrial food production?
Oh and most of that energy is produced from fossil fuels. *That* is why we're way beyond the Earth's carrying capacity, why world food production is slacking, prices are rising and we see food riots.
And I didn't even mention global warming (yet, heh.)

Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRLg8No0RVQ [youtube.com].

Re:Ooh, I see cornucopians abound (1)

budgenator (254554) | about a year and a half ago | (#41425099)

Actually it's not about agricultural production but total plant production, and the implication is that the planet's plants can't keep up with human CO2 production. An other study have reported a slightly less than 7% increase in Net production and almost half the increase occured in tropical rain-forrests, curiously the paper was co-author by Dr Running as well.

Increasing plant growth is not really our pursuit (2)

physicsphairy (720718) | about a year and a half ago | (#41423925)

More plant growth is largely a simple input/output problem, because plant life is already highly-evolved and adapted to make effective use of the available resources. To get more plant growth you throw more of whatever the limiting resources are: phosphates, nitrates, water, CO2, land area (which builds in things like sunlight). Increasing the availability of these resources is costly, and, therefore, so is increasing plant growth. Unless you just want to fix a lot of CO2 (in which case the oceans, which were not part of this study, may be a better bet) you would actually prefer to limit your augmentation of natural plant growth. What you desire is high efficiency fields, where loss due to pests and drought is minimal, where most of the energy of the plant is invested in producing your desired food product rather than in fighting with weeds, etc., and therefore, where less resources need to be invested to produce the same output. The alternative would be to just grow so many plants that you get what you want out of it regardless of massive crop loss, but that is simply not the best solution. (And, of course, the effect on net plant growth is balances by the fact you are often displacing other plants for the purpose.)

growth potential (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424003)

The "terrestrial plant growth" of the article takes into account both the wild and that from agriculture.
We can raise the "terrestrial plant growth" by allocating more land surface to the human agriculture (human agriculture can use resources -land, water, e.t.c.- more effectively), or just use the resources already allocated to human agriculture more efficient (there is still huge potential for that).

We Were Lied to (1)

qbitslayer (2567421) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424311)

And all along we were bombarded with propaganda that mankind was destroying plants everywhere at a rapid pace. Now we find out that it has not changed at all. Somebody has been lying. Why?

Re:We Were Lied to (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424585)

Umm. Your comment demonstrates considerable ignorance. Learn a little Biology. Learn some Ecology. You will then be far less ignorant of this topic, and you will understand why your comment is silly.

Plant life has had millions of years.... (1)

OdinOdin_ (266277) | about a year and a half ago | (#41424441)

....to populate the place, and it is now only reaching its limits.

This is good news for "mankind" there be plenty of life left in her yet.

Wait I'm confused? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#41424731)

Is this weirdly worded word vomit actually saying:

"In spite of the fear mongering about rainforests, other tree, and other vegitation being removed for development, Plant life is still the same?"

Because all this tells me is we just set a goal for maximum carbon output... 53.6 B metric tons.

In 2008 we were putting out about 30B metric tons but it was rising sharply. It's easy to see how fears of global warming arise. I know plants consume more in high carbon environments, but I doubt they consume any and all increase in carbon over what we call "normal".

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