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Android Will Surpass Windows By 2016, Say Gartner Stats

timothy posted about 2 years ago | from the see?-change dept.

Windows 149

An anonymous reader writes "Google's Android operating system will be used on more computing devices than Microsoft's Windows within four years, data from research firm Gartner showed on Wednesday, underlining the massive shift in the technology sector. At the end of 2016, there will be 2.3 billion computers, tablets and smartphones using Android software, compared with 2.28 billion Windows devices, Gartner data showed." The comparison would make less sense if Android was strictly for phones, and Windows was strictly for desktops-with-keyboards, but gets interesting as the devices on which each system runs overlap ever more.

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Extrapolating (5, Funny)

w_dragon (1802458) | about 2 years ago | (#41768921)

Is this [xkcd.com] how they're getting their predictions?

Re:Extrapolating (4, Funny)

cod3r_ (2031620) | about 2 years ago | (#41768951)

Damn you and your windows posting faster than my android.

Re:Extrapolating (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770565)

Psst... I'm running Android!

Re:Extrapolating (1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769111)

Have Gartner ever predicted anything correctly?

Re:Extrapolating (2)

CodeheadUK (2717911) | about 2 years ago | (#41769217)

Every HP networking webinar I see manages to crowbar the Magic Quadrant slide in somewhere. Someone must believe the hype.

Re:Extrapolating (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769841)

Every HP networking webinar I see manages to crowbar the Magic Quadrant slide in somewhere. Someone must believe the hype.

No, your evidence only shows that there are some people who think that somebody must believe it.

Re:Extrapolating (1)

narcc (412956) | about 2 years ago | (#41771473)

Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while...

(Probably not this time)

Gartner extrapolation more extreme (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769173)

Is this [xkcd.com] how they're getting their predictions?

Gartner would extrapolate that the whole world will be married by next Tuesday.

Re:Extrapolating (5, Informative)

ruir (2709173) | about 2 years ago | (#41769297)

They dont need to extrapolate squat. They professional bullshiters, they have long been presenting the present as the future. I still wonder why people quote tem.

Re:Extrapolating (2, Funny)

geekoid (135745) | about 2 years ago | (#41770051)

Becasue Gartner is really good. They take good data, and create conclusion for that fixed data.

They arn't perfect, but the are pretty damn accurate. I listen to people from Garter, and they know their math. and they general have great methodologies.

Re:Extrapolating (1)

Quiet_Desperation (858215) | about 2 years ago | (#41770745)

Breaking news. Slashdot user geekoid is outed as Gene Hall, CEO of Gartner.

(Philip Fry squint)

Or are you "Donnie" Darko Hrelic?

Re:Extrapolating (1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41771463)

Right. One problem with their great methodologies might be incorporating their predicted 215M shipments of Windows phones by 2015. And their 10% current smart phone market share.

Re:Extrapolating (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770169)

I was going to say "Sounds plausible, but this is Gartner", and point out that they probably had glowing projections for Itanium as well; but I like your counter-argument better.

First (0)

cod3r_ (2031620) | about 2 years ago | (#41768925)

FUCK YES

Re:First (1)

jellomizer (103300) | about 2 years ago | (#41768961)

Of course that means further demise of the desktop.

Re:First (0)

roc97007 (608802) | about 2 years ago | (#41769131)

Of course that means further demise of the desktop.

I'll stand on the sidewalk and wave as the desktop heads outta town, providing the apps I need work reasonably on tablets.

Re:First (3, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769391)

Of course that means further demise of the desktop.

I'll stand on the sidewalk and wave as the desktop heads outta town, providing the apps I need work reasonably on tablets.

And what happens when they don't, and then tablets move in and start shitting on your kitchen counter and demanding you fork more money into them every year because last year's model isn't supported anymore, while your desktop chugged along happily for years on end?

That's an awfully big "provided" clause you've got there. But, provided Jesus comes back and everyone gets candy and happiness in solid, tangible form, all wars and conflicts end, and we all live in permanent euphoria forever and ever, I guess that'll be all right!

Re:First (1, Redundant)

roc97007 (608802) | about 2 years ago | (#41769755)

> That's an awfully big "provided" clause you've got there.

Yes, it is.

I've argued until I got sick of it over in the Adobe forums that a "lite" version of their apps for tablets is worse than useless. They seem to expect me to carry a laptop *and* a tablet. Not going to happen. I don't currently own a tablet, and won't until I can work in the field *without* my laptop. Until I can do that, tablets are dead to me. I don't buy into the alpha-geek thang where you lug along one of every kind of portable device just to have them.

On the other hand, tablets really do have a lot of potential. But without serious apps, they're just portable web browsers. Toys.

And don't even *talk* to me about using Photoshop on a Winders tablet. Tried it -- I own a tablet running "Windows 7 tablet edition", and the experience sucketh mightily. And it will suck just as much on Windows 8, because it's the app itself that needs to change.

And yes, I can add a keyboard and mouse to the tablet, but then it's just a rather underpowered netbook with a bunch of separate pieces.

Re:First (1)

cbhacking (979169) | about 2 years ago | (#41771153)

Given that there quite literally is no such thing as "Windows 7 Tablet Edition" and the last time anything similarly named existed, it was XP, I find your credibility rather questionable.

All editions of Win other than Home Basic and Starter are capable of handling both touch and stylus input if the hwardware supports it. With that said, most tablets (even if they support a stylus at all) aren't designed with the digitizer resolution needed for professional artwork. The stylus is instead used as a somewhat more precise alternative to a finger, useful for things like tapping on small links or doing handwriting recognition, but nowhere near the grade of hardware required for artwork. Their typical resolution is on the order of 512x512 across the entire display.

Re:First (1)

roc97007 (608802) | about 2 years ago | (#41771291)

> Given that there quite literally is no such thing as "Windows 7 Tablet Edition" and the last time anything similarly named existed, it was XP, I find your credibility rather questionable.

Verbal shorthand on my part. The thing came shipped with Home Basic, requiring an immediate upgrade to Pro in order to wake up the tablet features, such as they were.

As to why someone would ship a tablet with an OS that does not have tablet features, you'd have to ask the manufacturer.

Re:First (1)

roc97007 (608802) | about 2 years ago | (#41771459)

In addition; After being very frustrated with the device, I gave it to my daughter to play with. She was at first excited, because she likes to draw and it had a stylus. But she soon became frustrated with the device, and now it's shelfware. ...which is why I typically say "I don't own a tablet and won't until certain things work on it". That lump of plastic in the bookshelf between Shaeffer's Data Center Operations and Java In A Nutshell isn't technically mine (it belongs to my daughter) and I'm waiting for things to settle out before trying again.

In fairness, part of the problem was that she could not find a drawing program on Windows that could easily be operated on a touch interface, and that is arguably an application problem. But this was compounded by Windows 7 Pro not having reasonable touch analogs for the mouse events the software required.

And finally, I wouldn't be intellectually honest if I did not include: At the price point for Windows 8 Pro, it's worth it to upgrade the device and see if it becomes more useful. If it goes back to being shelfware, at least we aren't out a lot of money.

Re:First (1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769527)

I'll stand on the sidewalk and wave as the desktop heads outta town, providing the apps I need work reasonably on tablets.

Demise of the desktop does not mean demise of the monitor+keyboard+mouse interface.

If my next phone/tablet/whatever can drive three monitors and be a frontend for excel/visual studio running off some terminal server/cloud setup and still give me a seamless (albeit degraded) interface for the same programs when I take it on the train.... ...then I'm more than happy to get rid of the giant box under my desk. This is not a far-fetched futuristic idea. We already have the hardware and the infrastructure to do this; we just need clever software.

The first company that can make a seamless desktop modetablet mode UI will dominate. Microsoft isn't stupid; they've seen this coming for years. It's no surprise that they are betting the company on beating Google and Apple on this killer feature. If there is a tie, Microsoft wins, since the world already runs on MS Office. If Google or Apple beat them, then MS will get gutted like Lotus in the 90s. If RT/Surface fails, they'll probably get one more chance. After that, it will be too late. Someone will come up with the magic UI pixie dust soon enough.

Re:First (2)

roc97007 (608802) | about 2 years ago | (#41769849)

Enh. If you have to attach a keyboard and mouse to a tablet in order to do real work, you've already lost. I would submit that this would *not* be the demise of the desktop. Rather, it's an admission that OS and app creators don't understand the touch paradigm.

Re:First (1)

mfwitten (1906728) | about 2 years ago | (#41769785)

It's not the Desktop paradigm that is important. Rather, it's the freedom to tinker with one's machine, something that Android not only allows but promotes (at least fundamentally, given its FOSS/open-source nature).

Re:First (0)

narcc (412956) | about 2 years ago | (#41771503)

Call me when Android development doesn't suck.

(Because right now, it sucks. Even Apple and RIM are ahead there. How sad is that?)

WTF? (2, Insightful)

Cyberax (705495) | about 2 years ago | (#41768937)

What are they smoking? Android devices will surpass the number of PCs the next year. Probably, it's already the most widely used OS.

Re:WTF? (4, Informative)

geekoid (135745) | about 2 years ago | (#41770107)

No. Right now.
608 million android device.
1.68 BILLION windows devices.

devices being defined as " computers, tablets and smartphones"

SO, maybe you should put down the pipe and actually read the article.

Re:WTF? (1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770499)

If he was smoking something good then he'd probably not care about such trivial things.

x86 port (2)

etash (1907284) | about 2 years ago | (#41769011)

If google provided with an official x86 port ( 64bit only ) we would already see pcs with android ( yes i know of http://www.android-x86.org/ [android-x86.org] )

Re:x86 port (2, Informative)

Synerg1y (2169962) | about 2 years ago | (#41769271)

*facepalm* It's called linux, Android is based off it. Also you can run Android OS via an emulator just about anywhere.

Re:x86 port (4, Informative)

mlts (1038732) | about 2 years ago | (#41769425)

Splitting hairs here, Linux is the kernel, and if one really wants to be technical about it, Android can be considered a really modified Linux distribution.

The issue with Android making the jump to the desktop hinges around one issue: User support. Android uses UIDs to separate apps. How would it keep users separate, which is a must on a desktop box.

The only way I can see that happening would be a hypervisor based system with each user on their own VM, and the core filesystem everything sits on having deduplication built in (so each user's environment only saves what the user's changes are.) Then, have a system where users have one mounted filesystem for sharing between everything.

It can be done, but it would take a lot of work for it to be decently elegant. However, it done right, it would be decently secure unless an app is able to get out of the hypervisor.

Other than the fact that Android is a single-user OS, it would not be too bad on the desktop. The permission model is solid enough that a compromised Web browser wouldn't mean the whole user or machine is nailed.

Re:x86 port (0, Redundant)

AuMatar (183847) | about 2 years ago | (#41769541)

Simple- it wouldn't. Android on a desktop box would work just like Android on a phone. It wouldn't keep separate users. Why would it? It's not a multi-user system. You seem to want a new feature to Android for a desktop box. Since desktop isn't their goal, I doubt they'd add it.

For the record- I don't see why you'd want Android on a desktop, it would be a bad experience. But nothing is stopping you right now, x86 support is out.

Re:x86 port (5, Informative)

blind biker (1066130) | about 2 years ago | (#41769703)

Simple- it wouldn't. Android on a desktop box would work just like Android on a phone. It wouldn't keep separate users. Why would it? It's not a multi-user system. You seem to want a new feature to Android for a desktop box. Since desktop isn't their goal, I doubt they'd add it.

Your claim is easy and quick to dispute, amigo. [androidpolice.com]

But don't worry; pompousness and self-confidence will get you far in life!

Re:x86 port (1)

mlts (1038732) | about 2 years ago | (#41770113)

I'm glad you pointed the code out. Having Android be able to tackle users in an elegant fashion (while making sure user A's instance of an app doesn't bang into user B's instance) is a very good thing to have.

That beats having to have a hypervisor and deduplication on the backend any day.

Re:x86 port (1)

PlusFiveTroll (754249) | about 2 years ago | (#41769751)

I would guess it wouldn't be too much different then one of these

http://www.amazon.com/Telikin-Elite-Touchscreen-Computer-Processor/dp/B005T3XEHE [amazon.com]

Met an old person who had one. It would drive me crazy if I had to use it, but it did everything they needed. Pictures, documents, internet surfing all worked and they didn't have to worry about Windows viruses.

Re:x86 port (5, Funny)

dmbasso (1052166) | about 2 years ago | (#41770325)

For the record- I don't see why you'd want Android on a desktop, it would be a bad experience. But nothing is stopping you right now, x86 support is out.

Isn't what Windows 8 is all about? I mean, the bad experience.

Re:x86 port (1)

Synerg1y (2169962) | about 2 years ago | (#41769647)

Interesting, I didn't know about the whole UIDs thing, but taking a shot at it in the dark, it would probably have to have the user portion built up from scratch and in terms of individualizing the apps, it would probably look like the Windows appdata folder for saving app settings per user. As it stands now the apps aren't configured for multi-user environments is the biggest hurdle. That can be handled either by some really clever directory manipulation re-pointing application settings repositories to the user's folder, or developers changing their apps to work with a users folder where applicable. Not a small undertaking, it's possible, but there's a pink elephant in the room... Windows AND Linux can both do everything android can do and tons of things it can't, so why bother? It's kind of like WINE: it would be cool to run windows apps on linux... OR I can just run windows ($ philosophy out of scope).

Re:x86 port (1)

jythie (914043) | about 2 years ago | (#41769925)

I would wager that Android on the desktop would suffer from the same problems that other distributions suffer from.. drivers for one. All Android would be is a distro that updates infrequently and has an integrated app store.

Re:x86 port (3, Interesting)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41770459)

I would wager that Android on the desktop would suffer from the same problems that other distributions suffer from.. drivers for one. All Android would be is a distro that updates infrequently and has an integrated app store.

The app store is a really big deal... one of the major reasons people don't use desktop Linux is the fact that it doesn't run many of the programs they want to use. There are probably more apps for Android by now than for desktop Linux, and certainly more apps that the average person would be interested in using.

Drivers are a chicken-and-egg problem... a lot of vendors don't bother with drivers for Linux because it's a small market, and it remains a small market in part because driver support sucks. But Android, by solving some of the other barriers to Linux-kernel adoption, could help break that logjam.

Please make it so (3, Interesting)

Sloppy (14984) | about 2 years ago | (#41770853)

The issue with Android making the jump to the desktop hinges around one issue: User support. Android uses UIDs to separate apps. How would it keep users separate, which is a must on a desktop box.
 
The only way I can see that happening would be a hypervisor based system with each user on their own VM, and the core filesystem everything sits on having deduplication built in (so each user's environment only saves what the user's changes are.) Then, have a system where users have one mounted filesystem for sharing between everything.

Forget desktops; even for single-user mobile devices, what you're describing sounds like an excellent idea anyway. "Excellent" maybe even understates it; I'd say something like this is necessary for phones to ever stop sucking.

It'd useful not just so that different users could use different VMs, but also to optionally hide one user's applications from one another. Something refuses to install unless I give it access to my address book? Ok, here, have .. um.. an address book.

Re:x86 port (1)

afidel (530433) | about 2 years ago | (#41770861)

Android IS a really modified linux distro, I run Debian under chroot on my ICS phone (I wanted a useful command line for some hacking I was doing and there was no combination of partial GNU ports I could find that gave me the tools I normally use so when I found linux installer standard [google.com] I was very happy)

Re:x86 port (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770925)


  How would it keep users separate, which is a must on a desktop box.

I don't see why this is a must. When was the last time you used more than one account on your desktop? It's rare for me, and rare for most people. I know it's useful at times, but it's hardly a "must".

Re:x86 port (2)

Sparrowhawk7 (1361853) | about 2 years ago | (#41771517)

Android already had partial multi user support built in, and this will be complete soon, maybe even as early as 4.2 Remember the underlying OS kernel and filesystem support is linux. a quick google search https://www.google.com.au/search?q=android+multiuser [google.com.au] returns over 2.5 M matches. The x86 support is already surprisingly complete and functional, and is being given direct development assistance from Intel itself.

Re:x86 port (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769595)

*facepalm* It's called linux, Android is based off it.

*facepalm* Android isn't anything like a "conventional" Linux system.

Re:x86 port (1)

etash (1907284) | about 2 years ago | (#41770015)

It's been about 6 years since i last used linux, however I think i would prefer android's polishing /gui etc over any linux distro of that timeframe ( 2006 ).

Re:x86 port (2)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41770403)

*facepalm* It's called linux, Android is based off it.

Android is based on the Linux kernel. And the reason it's been successful (aside from Google's marketing muscle, which is a not inconsiderable factor) is that it blasted away the 20 layers of worthless legacy shit that sits on top of the kernel on desktops, and replaced it with a new stack that (to borrow an Apple term) "just works". Well, at least for most users, most of the time – but that's more than can be said about [spit] desktop Linux.

Re:x86 port (3, Informative)

AuMatar (183847) | about 2 years ago | (#41769499)

Android does exist on x86. They officially support it in the NDK, and several OEMs have released products on it.

Oblig (2)

oodaloop (1229816) | about 2 years ago | (#41769079)

2016: Year of the Linux desktop? Or something?

Re:Oblig (3, Insightful)

Arancaytar (966377) | about 2 years ago | (#41769185)

Sure, if your desktop device is a phone. I suppose it's possible.

Re:Oblig (1)

Synerg1y (2169962) | about 2 years ago | (#41769287)

Motorola tried, phone specs aren't high enough yet.

Re:Oblig (1)

geekoid (135745) | about 2 years ago | (#41770163)

No. They are talking about " computers, tablets and smartphones"

And hardly anyone has a phones. They have small computers. One of the applications is to make phone calls. I can drop my device into a cradle, and use it to send email and surf the web. Open docs, create spreadsheets.

Assuming current rate of power* growth, by 2016 the small device you carry will do everything except play high end games, Cad, video editing etc..

*I don't actually think that will happen unless some key fab technologies are rolled out soon.

Re:Oblig (1)

synapse7 (1075571) | about 2 years ago | (#41769559)

If you count all the android boxes on ebay it is probably already there.

Just great... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769089)

Wow, that's quite an achievement. Like we didn't learn enough from the first scatter-shot, patch-work, design-by-committee solution, we went and ran the flag up another one and called it progress.

We get what we deserve, I guess.

Different interaction method required for desktops (2)

CodeheadUK (2717911) | about 2 years ago | (#41769147)

If you've run the Android VM that was knocking about a while back, you'll know that using a mouse to interact with an Android device is horrible.
The long press and gesture method works fine for fingers, but when you've got a mouse in your hand, certain things happen without the concious mind getting in the way.
TFA may be talking about mobile devices, but if any mobile OS is to take on the desktops, it needs to support traditional input methods.

Re:Different interaction method required for deskt (3, Insightful)

oh_my_080980980 (773867) | about 2 years ago | (#41769413)

Yeah 'cuz it's not like Microsoft is pushing tablet behavior on the desktop...oh wait....

Re:Different interaction method required for deskt (1)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41770357)

And that is going to work out just about as well.

Re:Different interaction method required for deskt (1)

dhomstad (1424117) | about 2 years ago | (#41769517)

I was running GB on my gTablet, mouse worked just fine. I agree that they have to SOME support for traditional input methods, but it SEEMS that creating their own input methods & standardizing them could work just as fine. I feel your pain, but more in the area of physical keyboards. Swype is fun to use and everything, but as slashdotters have previously noted, it's not touch typing.

gartner! (2)

MickyTheIdiot (1032226) | about 2 years ago | (#41769151)

Since Gartner is reporting anti-Windows news, count on it happening in 2 1/2 years!

Re:gartner! (1)

93 Escort Wagon (326346) | about 2 years ago | (#41769213)

Since Gartner is reporting anti-Windows news, count on it happening in 2 1/2 years!

Has Gartner reported significant anti-Windows stuff before? I thought they fell into the Windows Über Alles camp...

Re:gartner! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770217)

I think that's the point he's making. If Gartner says windows will be taken over in 4 years then it will really be 2 1/2.

bananas VS iPhones (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769187)

On a similar note, there are more bananas sold worldwide than iPhones.

Re:bananas VS iPhones (1)

narcc (412956) | about 2 years ago | (#41771529)

If that were true then why do I see all these monkeys with iPhones?

Oh...

It all makes sense now, thanks!

...and Microsoft be rich (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769205)

Microsoft takes ~$10 for every HTC and Samsung mobile phone.
http://thedroidguy.com/2012/08/microsoft-grossed-800-million-from-android-royalties-in-q2-more-than-windows-phone-net-profits/

Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (1)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41769211)

Does anyone know if Android, as it now stands, is ready for use on "real" computing devices (desktops and laptops)? In other words, is there any support built in for full multitasking, running apps in resizable and movable windows, a taskbar, and other essentials?

If so, then Android could be a serious contender, especially if ported to x86. If not, then Android still needs work before it's ready for prime time on devices other than phones and tablets.

I think Adobe may serve as a bellwether here. When/if a full version of Photoshop is ported to Android, we will know the platform has arrived. Photoshop used to run on PowerPC Macs, so there shouldn't be too many mandatory x86-isms scattered throughout the code.

There were recent rumors that Microsoft Office might be ported to iOS and Android, but those are apparently not true. Had Microsoft been broken up into an apps division and an OS division in the first antitrust case, as it should have been, I'll be they would have already taken that plunge.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (0)

oh_my_080980980 (773867) | about 2 years ago | (#41769435)

Really? It's called Linux you moron.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (0)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41769757)

Linux on the desktop is fragmented shit with essentially no commercial software available.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770071)

Really?
Synopsis, modelsim, Xilinx tools, matlab, Cosy, maple.
Seems to me there's plenty of commercial software available.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (0)

JDG1980 (2438906) | about 2 years ago | (#41770327)

Wake me up when they have Photoshop and MS Office.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (1)

BitZtream (692029) | about 2 years ago | (#41771309)

Change 'commercial software available' to 'useful commercial software available' and then tell me how Android is any different.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769761)

You've either never used Android, never used a typical Linux system, or both.

Re:Is Android ready for non-phablet use? (1)

AuMatar (183847) | about 2 years ago | (#41769581)

It will run on x86. But the features you're asking for? Nope, and they have no plans to- it's not what Android does, and it would totally break their activity lifecycle model. Its not meant to be a desktop OS. You could use it as one, but why?

Stupid easy predictions are stupid. (1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769273)

Pen and paper is also going to surpass windows by 2016.

Windows 8 is such a fuckup microsoft is going to be lucky to exist by 2016.

Re:Stupid easy predictions are stupid. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770869)

Microsoft ceased to exist from my daily life the day I switched to a Mac.

And Apple will also cease to exist from my daily life the day I switch to OSS. Unfortunately, the OSS world is so fragmented over standards ways and compatibility that this day ain't coming any time soon.

Getting real (2)

Beat The Odds (1109173) | about 2 years ago | (#41769367)

1) No, Android is not for the destkop... that's called Linux

2) No, Gartner is just comparing the number of apples with the number of oranges.

Move along...

Re:Getting real (1)

oh_my_080980980 (773867) | about 2 years ago | (#41769477)

They said computing devices. The defined computing devices as computers, tablets and smartphones. So yes Android is eating Microsoft's lunch. Which isn't surprising since Microsoft is not a player in the tablet and smartphone market.

This is huge! (4, Funny)

Just Some Guy (3352) | about 2 years ago | (#41769419)

First, this means that Gartner is admitting that people might like something other than Windows. Second, now it means that it won't actually happen.

One more (1)

NikeHerc (694644) | about 2 years ago | (#41769427)

One more data point showing that microsoft, the devices and services company, is becoming irrelevant.

They're not even the same category! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769431)

Windows is (or was) a PC operating system!

Android is a gadget / appliance operating system! It can by definition *never* replace a PC operating system, since it is deliberately designed to lack that way of thinking, the functionality needed, and the freedom required.

Not that Windows ever was any great at that, compared to Unix-likes ({OS X, Ubuntu, but also everything focusing on Gnome 3, and partially KDE 4} NOT included). But the whole farticle is utterly retarded.

Here is a video of the quoted statement being made: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSKQ3ZNQ_O8

Microsoft isn't the only one to be worried (5, Insightful)

sl4shd0rk (755837) | about 2 years ago | (#41769497)

M$ should be worried. Along with Apple and anyone else trying to keep their proprietary little death-grip on their market share. Android is turning up everywhere. It's becoming ubiquitous. You can find it on everything from smartphones to Televisions[0] to Refrigerators[1]. Why do you think Apple is going 'thermo nuclear' on Android? It's not just due to 'Rounded corners and rectangular design' it's because Android can be made to run on just about any home appliance imaginable -- and guess who makes a lot of home appliances (TVs, fridges, washing machines, etc) as well as smartphones? Now guess who doesn't?

Apple and Microsoft PAY people extraordinary salaries to forecast market trends. They know where the industry is trending. And it ain't trending into Cupertino or Redmond at the moment -- at least not in the world outside of the US.

[0] - http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/android-powered-pocket-tv-turns-any-television-into-a-smart-tv/ [digitaltrends.com]

[1] - http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425210/do-we-really-need-an-android-powered-fridge/ [technologyreview.com]

Re:Microsoft isn't the only one to be worried (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769855)

I can't wait until my toilet paper has Android! That would be a shitstorm for Apple and M$!

Do they ever give up? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769533)

Didn't they also say laptops/notebooks would kill the desktop? Then tablets?

Android most popular Linux distro (5, Insightful)

Runesabre (732910) | about 2 years ago | (#41769671)

For years we've been talking about "The Year for Linux on the Desktop". As veteran game developer, it's always boggled me how Linux, despite it's power, is so shortsighted when it comes to 3rd party support and distribution. 3rd part support and easy distribution along with backwards and forwards compatibility is what made Windows so dominate over the past 20 years. The typical solution bandied about by Linux users is "you can always distribute the source and recompile". Yes, that's what the average computer wants to do; fiddle around recompiling source code on their personal micro-flavor of Linux out of a sea of 100s of distros only to have it break again with the next 0.0.0.1 release of the underlying OS.

What's telling to me is that now when you ask "What's the most popular Linux distro", you can arguably say "Android" and the reason Android has become so popular is because it easily supports 3rd party apps like a reasonable OS is expected. No fuss no muss. Just like Windows.

Congratulations, Google, for finally taking Linux in the right direction.

Re:Android most popular Linux distro (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41771029)

Except android isn't really like any other linux distribution. Android uses the Linux kernel, but it doesn't use the gnu libraries, x-windows, and all the other supporting infra-structure of a typical linux distribution.

Android is largely a linux kernel to support the hardware and multi-tasking, with a modified Java VM running the apps. That's quite different from what most would consider Linux. I still think it's great, and a wonderful alternative to the Windows stack, but grouping it with the other linux distributions is really misleading. It's really like a totally re-imagined Linux, killing off much of the Unix roots.

Hence Windows 8 (4, Interesting)

fm6 (162816) | about 2 years ago | (#41769701)

This is why 8 is so absurdly tablet-centric. If people are buying tablets instead of PCs, well, you can retain them as customers by shoehorning your PC OS into the new paradigm.

What this strategy misses is the fact that people are not replacing their PCs with tablets. They still use PCs, but they don't upgrade them very often. So Windows doesn't have any special advantage as a tablet OS, and is unlikely to rival Android or iOS.

Re:Hence Windows 8 (2)

Kwyj1b0 (2757125) | about 2 years ago | (#41771335)

What this strategy misses is the fact that people are not replacing their PCs with tablets. They still use PCs, but they don't upgrade them very often. So Windows doesn't have any special advantage as a tablet OS, and is unlikely to rival Android or iOS.

I think what MS is counting on is interoperability. Sure, they have a tablet, and a desktop, and a phone. If you can make sure you can seamlessly (in an information sense) transition from one to another (desktop at home, tablet/phone on the road) and they all contain the same information (i.e. constant sync), then you would like it. Amazon does the same thing with its Kindle app - doesn't matter if I use a phone/PC/Kindle/Fire to read a book; they are all in sync.

While the idea is good, they want to make the experience seamless as well (putting a tablet UI on a desktop). That is where the issue gets interesting/depressing/irrelevant. On a dual monitor desktop, I found that the Windows 8 experience is great. I think I'd hate it on a single monitor setup (which most people use).

I'll believe it... (1)

LaminatorX (410794) | about 2 years ago | (#41769711)

...when Netcraft confirms it.

Oh man... (1, Insightful)

Jintsui (2759005) | about 2 years ago | (#41769763)

I pulled a muscle I laughed so hard at this... Thank you for making my day...

Most Androids sold are already in the landfil (4, Insightful)

cockpitcomp (1575439) | about 2 years ago | (#41769791)

Considering most phones last less than 2 years. How about comparing working devices?

Re:Most Androids sold are already in the landfil (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41769895)

I'm still using a Star*Tac you insensitive clod!

Data?! Can I borrow your time machine? (1)

the_B0fh (208483) | about 2 years ago | (#41769817)

Gartner's data shows that?!?! Can I please borrow your time machine? I need some data from the future too!!!

"It's a fucking projection, damnit"

2016? (1)

nurb432 (527695) | about 2 years ago | (#41770017)

I doubt it, at least at a practical level. So what if there are 10x more phones than desktops? The real 'work' is still being done on windows and microsoft is still making tons of cash.

Same goes for ARM, there may be more ARM chips out there but the desktop still may be owned by x86.

Now id like to see both Microsoft and Intel go away and i bet in time this will happen, but im trying to be realistic too. 2016 is right around the corner, and i dont see that drastic of a change that fast.

Pointless Prediction (1)

NinjaTekNeeks (817385) | about 2 years ago | (#41770111)

Using the landscape of current mobile/desktop devices to predict anything more than 6 months away is ridiculous. Remember, around four years ago Android was released, (Sept 08 i think) and I would bet that not one analyst then made a remotely accurate prediction of today's mobile landscape.

Stupid analysts (1)

Dunge (922521) | about 2 years ago | (#41770207)

Don't base numbers on a tendencies based on the last two years. In 2016, Android will be long gone and replaced 3 times.

Does this mean Linux wins? (1)

cod3r_ (2031620) | about 2 years ago | (#41770225)

Or what?

Re:Does this mean Linux wins? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770627)

Linux won a long time ago. It already runs most supercomputers, most servers, most embedded systems (routers, tv's, etc), so becoming the #1 smart phone/tablet system is not only inevitable, but predictable. Won't stop the media from focusing almost all their attention on Apple though.

Microsoft is strong but slow (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770247)

The post is suggestive in that it sounds that android will replace windows.

It reminds me of these old settings where you see hundreds of secratery's behind a type writer.
This is what I think off with microsoft with it's solid setting in the businessplace, where you need to be productive, but they are not appealing to consuming part of the os. This is where various parties have jumped in like steam, spotify, pandora, youtube, etc however microsoft seems to be unable to capatilize in this market, like zune.

So what will happen faster? Windows gaining back the consumption part or android the business part. And you see both parties making attempts, with surface tables versus chromebooks. Microsoft can fight for a long time and I don't want to give up on them yet, however the rate of evolution with handheld devices regarding hardware and software seems to be at a much larger rate the microsoft is able to operate at.

Wow, stop the presses! um... (1)

TheSkepticalOptimist (898384) | about 2 years ago | (#41770449)

They do realize Microsoft is making a big push into phone and tablet markets?

Why do people consider Gartner a reliable source for stats? Its like: "Me sa say dat Windows no sella, me sa say Android sella more, me sa thinks no bombad changes for 4 years".

Yes, I think the people of Gartner are retarded Gungans.

Re:Wow, stop the presses! um... (1)

narcc (412956) | about 2 years ago | (#41771579)

Yes, I think the people of Gartner are retarded Gungans.

What are these Gungans that you speak of? There were no such monsters shitting all over a beloved franchise. You must have imagined them as being part of three movies that don't exist.

And high speed rail will surpass flights... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41770589)

Seriously, guys. These 2 operating systems are not for the same purpose. One is for mobile media consumption devices and the other one is for producing more so than it is for consuming. It is a stupid comparison. Yes, there are more consumers than producers.

That's nothing (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 2 years ago | (#41771041)

Over 500 million Symbian devices were sold by Nokia. This, they traded for a few million WP 7.5 devices. Talk about a massive shift. Still, no OS has ever been deployed as widely as Nokia's S40, which has shipped in over 1,5 billion devices..

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