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Gov't Report Predicts Cyborgs, Rise of China for 2030

Soulskill posted about a year and a half ago | from the resistance-is-futile dept.

Technology 219

colinneagle writes "Yesterday the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is made up of 17 U.S. government intelligence agencies, released the 140-page report Global Trends 2030 Alternate Worlds. In all four of the alternative visions of the future, U.S. influence declines and it may be regarded more as a 'first among equals.' By 2030, the West will be in decline and Asia will wield more overall global power than the U.S. and Europe combined. 'China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030,' the report states. 'Megatrends' include an overall reduction of poverty and the 'growth of a global middle class.' NIC also sees a potential world of scarcities as the demand for food and water increase as the world's population swells from 7.1 billion to 8.3 billion people. Advances in health technologies will help people live longer, but 60% of the world's population is expected to live in an urban environment. The report also addresses technological augmentation: 'Successful prosthetics probably will be directly integrated with the user’s body. Brain-machine interfaces could provide “superhuman” abilities,enhancing strength and speed, as well as providing functions not previously available.'"

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Skynet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255383)

Skynet will be needed by the Cyborgs.
Perhaps a Cyborg army will be created to deal with the Chinese, but instead will turn against all humans.
That's my prediction for 2030, and no... I most certainly do not welcome any new Cyborg overlords.

Re:Skynet (1)

ackthpt (218170) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255693)

Skynet will be needed by the Cyborgs.
Perhaps a Cyborg army will be created to deal with the Chinese, but instead will turn against all humans.
That's my prediction for 2030, and no... I most certainly do not welcome any new Cyborg overlords.

I think the prediction is conservative. Consider the drones we already have deployed and the advances in autonomous devices in the past decade, the hardware is pretty much here, it's just getting the programming down pat. For all we know the programming could be pretty close already, but nobody with it is going to tell you they have prototypes of 'cyborgs' which can fly or amble about, recognise your face and decide the best way to eliminate you if necessary. No lasers needed, bullets are still pretty darn effective.

Re:Skynet (2)

deimtee (762122) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256015)

Cyborgs are by definition cybernetics combined with an organism. They don't need autonomous or self-aware AI programming, that's what the Org part is for. The needed programming would only be the on-board control of the enhancements, and the interface to the controlling intelligence, ie: the translation from thought to action.
I agree that the hardware is pretty much here, with the major exception of reliable, long-term, non-damaging, high-capacity, biology-to-machine interfaces. That's going to be the hard part.
Messy wetware. Yuck

Re:Skynet (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256155)

Anybody with a laptop, tablet or smartphone who relies upon the internet is already a cyborg.

Re:Skynet (4, Insightful)

Sperbels (1008585) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256093)

Hell, my mother has cochlear implants, she's already a cyborg.

Re:Skynet (4, Insightful)

magarity (164372) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255841)

I most certainly do not welcome any new Cyborg overlords.

Speak for yourself; if they all look like Summer Glau, I can't wait!

Flying cars? (3, Funny)

PPH (736903) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255421)

Not yet? Then fuck it.

So... (0, Troll)

theRunicBard (2662581) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255423)

they watched some science fiction? I cannot believe any of this. I find it very likely that part of the reason the US attacked the Middle East was to get armies right up near China. As dumb as the political side of the US is I doube the military side will roll over and die.

Re:So... (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255817)

We already have a large military presence in Japan and South Korea, but we invaded Iraq to get closer to China? Right...

Re:So... (2)

Squiddie (1942230) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256087)

Strategic encirclement, yo!

I predict (0, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255447)

Chinese cyborgs farming gold on World of Warcraft's 23rd expansion pack. And South Korean cyborgs pwning Starcraft 7 world tournaments because of their mechanically-enhanced megaclicks-per-second micromanagement skills. ("Kekekekek!") And maybe Cyborg Olympics, competing in the Sports Entertainment Market Meta-Olympics with the Chemically Enhanced Olympics, the Robot Olympics, and the Blood Sport Olympics. (The traditional Olympics will have disbanded due to lack of athletes by 2020.)

Re:I predict (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255555)

It took 12 years to release Starcraft 2, so we'll only be to 3.5 by 2030.

Food and fresh water (1)

Intrepid imaginaut (1970940) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255451)

We have plenty of both, and usually the means to get a lot more if pressed. Where you might run into problems is if you were unwise enough to build a few cities in desert areas and then attempt to irrigate them from faraway sources.

'growth of a global middle class.' (1, Flamebait)

flogger (524072) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255455)

Damn, We were just getting rid of the American middle class. Now it is off to keep the rest of the world in it's place: Below our corporate regime.
Signed,
Corp. Amerika

Re: 'growth of a global middle class.' (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255811)

"Now it is off to keep the rest of the world in it's place"

Too bad you couldn't keep that apostrophe in its place.

Re: 'growth of a global middle class.' (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255949)

Perhaps if we get rid of the grammar nazis there will be room on this planet for more middle-class people.

Re: 'growth of a global middle class.' (1)

marcosdumay (620877) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256205)

Not only will the global middle class grow, and everybody will be richer... But also there will be less food and water available for everybody!

I know that kind of report is an assembly of several different scenarios, that obviously have different characteristics. But it is not very usefull to claim that "In 2030 we'll be all rich, well, unless we are all poor or things stay near the way they are now", "also, a famous personality will die".

Load of Crap! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255473)

Is it just me or is this a load of ... ? How is this possible? In one sentence it claims the report says:

"the report states. 'Megatrends' include an overall reduction of poverty and the 'growth of a global middle class.' "

And in the next sentence it reads:

"... potential world of scarcities as the demand for food and water increase as the world's population swells ..."

Talk about FUD! This thing is trying to freak out the conspiracy theorists and the average Joe!

Re:Load of Crap! (5, Insightful)

rolfwind (528248) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255611)

I believe the scarcity line more. Everything we need in terms of material (many metals, oil, etc) is being consumed at a crazy pace. Usually with these mining scenarios, you go from super high grade (ore) scenarios to poorer and poorer ones. Think about all the gold rushes where the miners initially found huge nuggets fairly consistently and up in Alaska I was told it was so rich right off the bat it was $2,000 a shovel full to lesser and lesser grades until we're using several loads from a caterpillar 797s to get a fraction of an ounce while we turn mountains into holes in the ground.

It's not so much that we can't keep getting the same amount of material needed, but it consumes ever more energy to do so.

That wouldn't be so much of a problem if our oil wasn't starting to look like every other resource. The conventional oil is the rich ore, with initally 1 barrel oil needed to get 300 out (say, like the Ghawar oil fields when first found) and now the ones we have are around 8-15:1. As that is dwindling and not meeting our demands, we're going to fracking and tar sands that have lower yields still (and likely a lower field life as well).

And yeah, we have Natural Gas. But that's a lower density energy form. In human history, we always went for higher density stuff, from wood->charcoal->coal->oil. Ever see an NG gas tank? Or the trunk of the car using it?

The middle class may grow but it will have a lower standard of living than a generation or two previous. It will denote more a relative position than an absolute one.

Re:Load of Crap! (2)

Nefarious Wheel (628136) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255639)

We've gotta leave this egg before we run out of food and we die as a chicken.

(Ok, you may think I'm albumin idiot for using this metaphor, but *somebody* had to raise it.)

Re:Load of Crap! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255935)

i think a better metaphor is 'leaving the nest' to fly amongst the stars. if we don't leave the nest soon, we will suck the teat of mother earth dry.

Re:Load of Crap! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255819)

All you need to do is change the definition of the "middle class". Eventually, the middle class will be those between the overlords in their high apartment towers and the dead buried in the ground. Ta-da, the new middle class.

Actually, there is a way to create a new middle class but it requires the removal of a great swath of the current population. A similar event occurred in Europe a few hundred years ago and I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that there's a new event being engineered as we yammer on now.

What do you mean by 2030? (1, Informative)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255483)

The US has been in decline for awhile since its peak in the 1990s. GDP of China is almost equal to the US TODAY! Once this happens [youtube.com] , where bond investors decide the US is no good on its commitment to pay it back ala Greece the decline will surge down FAR similiar to Greece, Spain, and Portugal.

Until Americans are willing to work for less like their asia counterparts and be a creditor nation rather than a debtor nation the slide will continue. FYI the UK was the #1 super power in the 18th and 19th centuries. The depression of 1873 and debt similiar to American style trading today, brought it down where in 2012 they never fully recovered.

The US will join the UK unless it pays its debt and people work for less. 2016 is where CHina will overtake the US. India too I would imagine will overtake it a few years after that and perhaps Vietnam in the next decade?

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

alen (225700) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255531)

going to war with france and germany every few decades didn't help the UK at all. losing millions of people in the two world wars along with your money producing colonies and having your homeland bombed isn't good for keeping power either

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

Pseudonym Authority (1591027) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255669)

Oh you, theme troll, will you ever get bored of this routine?

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (0)

rolfwind (528248) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255791)

Compared to Greece, the saving grace of American debt is that it is denominated in paper backed by nothing that the nation can print.

To hyperinflate will be no fun, for people with savings, and people trying to buy goods (what country will sell to you if your money is getting drastically worth less all the time), but we are not quite Greece.... America has an option, for lack of a better term, to reboot for no initial cost, other than building up it's credit from scratch again.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1, Troll)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256283)

Compared to Greece, the saving grace of American debt is that it is denominated in paper backed by nothing that the nation can print.

To hyperinflate will be no fun, for people with savings, and people trying to buy goods (what country will sell to you if your money is getting drastically worth less all the time), but we are not quite Greece.... America has an option, for lack of a better term, to reboot for no initial cost, other than building up it's credit from scratch again.

You post mentions the problem.

Check out what happened to the Weimar [wikipedia.org] when the Germans did this? Hmmm look at the price of gold? Chart look somewhat familiar?

THe end result was riots, economic collapse, defaults, runs on the bank, and Hitler! Why did Germany do this? To pay back its debt. Sound familiar again?

The fiscal cliff is not a debate of paying for a new budget. It is a debate whether to pay your existing bill! When you raise the ceiling you say "Mr. Investor I wont pay you!" I will charge you again to pay for the other charge instead. The investor says ok, America is rich and will eventually pay me back so it is ok ... I guess.

What happens is after 130% to 150% debt to GDP is you have a debt so fucking big that you can take every dollar from every man, woman, and child and still owe money! Something has to give and all it takes is for someone to say "Uncle Sam. Your debt is no good. I want out!"

Then everyone freaks out and other bankers refuse and there is no money to pay people back yet cover interest. That is what happened in Greece.

If Bernanke is retarded and signs point to this he will simply print more money to pay it back. Then you have hyperinflation and the banks wont accept them as payments as they wont be worthy anything. Children burned money for fire in Germany as it was cheaper than the wood costs. No one will want to do business and oil will be traded in another currency such as Gold or Yen.

Then the party is over and America is a 3rd world nation or just a poor one like Greece. This is a very serious threat that no one sees and scares the hell out of me. I am not a gold bug as I do not have as much to save as I would like in case anyone is wondering. Japan will probably go next.

This my slashdot friends is why America is poorer and in decline. It is why your wages have remained stagnant yet you do not feel as rich as your parents. It is why health insurance and rent goes up year after year despite stagnant wages. Zero interest rates, free money, and deregulation are creating an environment of rising prices.

Vietnam? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255877)

Vietnam?
The country listed as the 56th largest economy by nominal GDP in 2010?
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29)

The country listed behind the economic powerhouse of Kuwait?
The country listed just ahead of PUERTO RICO?

The internet age has made everyone into 'medical experts', 'economic experts', 'legal experts', and of course 'trolling experts'.
How can I subscribe to your newsletter?

Re:Vietnam? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256171)

The internet age has made everyone into 'medical experts', 'economic experts', 'legal experts', and of course 'trolling experts'.

People have always been this way. The internet just allows us to communicate our "expert opinion" to a bigger audience than just our friends.

Re:Vietnam? (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256225)

... and 10 years ago Vietnam was near the rock bottom.

China too was crap at 56th percent as well 20 years ago. Look at it now? Vietnam is growing rapidly because of cheap labor, infrastructure, and its close location to China. As cost accountants find ways to cut costs from the greedy CHinese who are demanding $1.60 an hour a Vietnamese man will do it for $.65 an hour!

That adds up and helps boast the share price for these companies as it can be easily shipped to China next.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (2)

Xyrus (755017) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256067)

Work for less pay? Does that include the outrageously exorbitant compensation CEOs and upper level management have, or just us plebs below them?

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256373)

Just you, unless you want to make that your sticking point and take the whole economy down with you over your righteous indignation. Unfortunately I fear many more than not feel entitled to the good life or feel that if the rich won't do it why should they. And so collectively we will fiddle while it all burns down around us. And ironically we will probably blame the rich as if we had no large hand in it.

Re: ...by 2030? '...and people work for less' (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256127)

...You first!

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

Squiddie (1942230) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256131)

Being number one isn't worth it if I have to be paid as much as some pseudo-slave in China. Let them be number one. Our standard of living is still the best.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

atari2600 (545988) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256199)

Which delusional place are you from? Unless you meant "better" than China which is a different story, the following countries have
a higher standard of living than the USA:

- France
- Switzerland
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Luxembourg

A couple of those might be debatable and one can bring the population/area into the equation but if you want to go superlative, you better do your homework

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (5, Informative)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256203)

My Canadian and Australian friends get paid more and have a much better standard than here. IT wages (just 1 example) have not risen at all in 10 years. In Australia you can net 6 figures like it is 1999 again after only 10 years! I see people with 10 years here who make maybe 65k. They can get homes that are more affordable too.

In Canada you can make up to a huge $40,000 salary fresh out of college! States? Here is your headphone set for your call center job. The pay is $10/hr or $17k a year! I do not know anyone who makes as low as Americans if you do not have experience not to mention the college costs are 1/8th of here so you do not have to live at home with Mommy and Daddy with $900 a month student loans while you work as a doorman at BestBuy to pay for it. ... and they do not have to pay healthcare costs which save another $500 a month too on top of that. The US is crap man unless you are a middle manager to CEO. Everyone else is fighting for scraps it seems since 2002.

  I am right now about to take a new job that pays more than my 2000 did. About damn time and yet sad after 12 years. For the average Joe we are certainly in decline and poorer as inflation that is not counted as health care costs, gas, food, mortgage, rent, auto insurance, and other things have gone up a very LARGE margin in 12 years.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

GLMDesigns (2044134) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256223)

The issue is also return on investment. The US is pricing itself out of the market thinking it is the only market in town: raising capital gains is probably the stupidest thing we can do - but we're doing it. And we don't have to work for less - we have to stop expecting the government to give us free shit (free cell phones to the homeless in California). If we were a rational society we would have raised the age of retirement from 65 - 67 in the 1970s and we would now be talking about when to raise it to 70.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

DNS-and-BIND (461968) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256247)

Almost equal to US GDP TODAY? Are you insane, man? China GDP $7.3 trillion, America GDP $15 trillion. Less than half. China is growing at a rate of 10% per year...let's see, those of us who got passing grades at math figure out when the pass happens (assuming zero American growth).

You know, sometimes I think people just pull things out of their asses just because there is this urgent compulsion to imagine China up and America down. There is this bizarre frisson of pleasure from imagining a world in which they get to bow to another country. I remember the same thing regarding Japan in the 80s.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256309)

I saw 11 trillion GDP for China just yesterday. I will correct myself if I am wrong as that is how I came to the conclusion in a few more years.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (4, Interesting)

asmkm22 (1902712) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256253)

The problem is that people *can't* work for less. Inflation has been way ahead wage growth for decades now, and isn't going to change soon. China gets away with it because, as a nation, they seem to be rather accepting of having 98% of the population living in literal poverty. That won't fly here in the U.S. and a lot of the political unrest we've had in the last 10 years is one side effect.

As for bond investors leaving the U.S. market, that's also not going to happen any time soon because, as bad off as we are, there are still no better alternatives for bond investments. It doesn't matter how economically powerful China gets, there's still way too much government corruption, lack of fiscal transparency, and a propensity to mess with their exchange rate to suite their needs. That's not an ideal alternative. The UK failed because the U.S. was right there ready to step in and take over, with an emerging democratic economy and a thriving industrial base.

Simply put, America becoming a stronger economy was beneficial to the rest of the world, including China, partly because is created a strong consumer-driven economy. China becoming a stronger economy won't have that effect because they lack any sort of middle class; the super-rich can only consume so much. Like it or not, as the U.S. economy tanks, the rest of the worlds will follow (and is following) until either we right our ship, or another similar economy is ready to step up and be the dominate consumer-driven economy, or the world economies all start to fracture and become more isolated again, at least for a while.

Re:What do you mean by 2030? (2)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256349)

Look at it this way. There is an island with 3 guys. Each one has its job as they try to survive. The Asian's job is to catch the fish and bring it home. The European's job is to spend just an hour finding bait and consuming the fish, the American's job is to eat the fish.

That is how the world economy is functioning right now. America does not produce. THey only consume and give away their wealth to Asia while charging for it. In time the Asian will say fuck this. I will just get my own boat and eat my own fish.

Consumption is fine if it is equally matched with production. But it is not anymore. The only reason we are not broke now is because of artificial debt. Those who produce will get rich. Unless America produces which would require us to work for less and if we pay back our debt and raise interest rates the cost of living will go down substantially and deflation can give us the affordability required.

That link I did with Peter Schiff correctly predicted the housing crunch and the great recession back in 2003! He looked at debt and production and consumption relationships. Not thing exotic. He is predicting now a bigger crash is yet to come. He mentioned New Zealand has an excellent debt to assets ratio and would be a great place to buy bonds.

is WW3 coming? (1)

alen (225700) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255485)

prior to WW1 and 2 the US was powerful, but not as powerful as Europe. the two world wars is what made the USA the superpower that it is today. the europeans went to war with each other one too many times. seriously, france/england/germany/russia and a few other countries have been at war with each other almost continuously for the last 1000 years. the sides changed every few decades but the frequency of the wars has been fairly regular.

its one thing when all your people do is farm, but once industrialization came around the destruction of modern infrastructure allowed the USA to usurp world power. the USA was the China of the early 20th century where modern europe outsourced manufacturing to us and we were only too happy to poison our environment for a few dollars.

is the USA going to be bombed into the stone age soon? because that's what it took to kick europe off the world stage

Re:is WW3 coming? (2)

timeOday (582209) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255589)

I don't see it. US politics are fractious but nothing like Europe has long been (as you said). And we're not undergoing any dramatic upheavals at the moment or in the near future as far as I can tell. If anything, China seems more likely to erupt into infighting, simply because it is changing so fast that some internal rebalancing might be in order (e.g. the newly wealthy wanting more political power).

Re:is WW3 coming? (1)

loufoque (1400831) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255887)

War has become useless.
The new "wars" are economical.

Re:is WW3 coming? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256165)

You are all missing the point - per CAPITA income between the US and UK is not significantly different and when you take exchange rates into account, this becomes even clearer. The real issue is population. The US has around 5 time the population of the UK and around 5 times the GDP. This gives it significant advantage on teh world stage. China has 4 to 5 times the population of the US so when it's per CAPITA GDP reaches within a cooeee (1/4 to 1/5 will put them level) of the US per CAPITA GDP, then they will be significantly larger. Nothing the US gov can do about it unless they can cause the birth of around a billion US babies....

Re:is WW3 coming? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256221)

Or the death of a billion or so Chinese.

Which they could. In 30 minutes.

Not likely.. (1)

Andrewkov (140579) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255523)

Sorry to say, but the way things are going, that sounds overly optimistic.

Yeah but which government? (0)

Trogre (513942) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255529)

Which government predicts this? China?

Re:Yeah but which government? (2)

fredprado (2569351) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255835)

If you don't want to read the article, at least read the summary before posting. Answering your question US Government did, 17 US intelligence agencies.

Re:Yeah but which government? (1)

Trogre (513942) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256163)

Yes, I know. I was being deliberately obtuse, merely as a light-hearted jab at the US-centric nature of Slashdot.

Re:Yeah but which government? (1)

fredprado (2569351) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256293)

Poe's Law at its best...

Re:Yeah but which government? (1)

loufoque (1400831) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255919)

It's funny how Americans are so afraid of losing their place as the most powerful country.
You realize that almost one fifth of the human population is chinese?

Re:Yeah but which government? (2)

Sperbels (1008585) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256245)

It's funny how Americans are so afraid of losing their place as the most powerful country.

Why is it funny? Seems like a pretty standard human response to me.

Food/Water correlates with technology (1)

Darkness404 (1287218) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255543)

As technology improves and wealth increases, it is natural that ways to create clean water and grow/farm food would increase too.

You can't both simultaneously predict that technology would rise in all areas and predict that technology will not have risen in regards to food production.

Re:Food/Water correlates with technology (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255699)

"As technology improves and wealth increases, it is natural that ways to create clean water and grow/farm food would increase too.

You can't both simultaneously predict that technology would rise in all areas and predict that technology will not have risen in regards to food production."

Excuse me, but what you describe is anything BUT natural! It takes human energy and ingenuity to solve the problems you describe neither of which is natural or guaranteed.

Re:Food/Water correlates with technology (1)

rolfwind (528248) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255809)

You can't both simultaneously predict that technology would rise in all areas and predict that technology will not have risen in regards to food production.

Nearly all our advancements the last 200 years is tied to oil and/or cheap energy.

Re:Food/Water correlates with technology (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255895)

Really?!?! Tell that to all the tid-bits of genetically modified food bouncing around in your belly...

Re:Food/Water correlates with technology (2)

rolfwind (528248) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256433)

Our food supply is highly dependent on oil, from the machines plowing/harvesting to the fertilizer made from petroleum byproducts.

Economy (1)

cashman73 (855518) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255547)

I disagree that China will be the world's largest economy. First of all, let's not neglect India. Secondly, what we're seeing today is an equilibrium effect taking place, as China and India make gains to catch up and Europe and North America give a little. It will all eventually settle, and we'll have three dominant world economies: Asia, Europe, and the Americas (North and South).

Re:Economy (2)

Kjella (173770) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255883)

It will all eventually settle, and we'll have three dominant world economies: Asia, Europe, and the Americas (North and South).

If the wealth really redistributes remember that Asia is well over four billion people, Americas and Europe less than a billion each (in that order). And that's a pretty wide group of countries, depending on whose definition of "western" you use like for example Huntington [wikipedia.org] including the US, Canada, parts of Europe and Australia then the western world is less than a billion put together. Given that, it's not unlikely that the Asian economy will become at least as big if not bigger than the western one. Of course Asia is a pretty big mix of various countries all by itself, far more than China.

Re:Economy (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256271)

. It will all eventually settle, and we'll have three dominant world economies: Asia, Europe, and the Americas (North and South).

Doesn't seem likely. With global warming coming the three superpowers will be Siberia, Canada, and Antarctica.

Re:Economy (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256451)

While it is true demand for factory workers will go down in Asia as wages rise. They are already moving some to Vietnam and Thailand as CHinese are asking for more money than they did just a few years ago. However, with 2 trillion plus American dollars sitting in the bank from tax evaders and corporations will go to investment in new companies. Then middle class jobs arise from those as more Chinese have more money to spend.

The US is under debt right now with credit cards, student loans. US treasuries, and a corrupt government who doesn't give a crap. With no production and no money left for investment there is a shortage of middle class jobs. China is still growing while the US reached its max back in 1999.

Hmmm (5, Insightful)

turp182 (1020263) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255549)

More people + less resources = less poverty

Fail.

Debt will certainly cause decline in the West. It's happening now, and poverty is increasing considerably.

Countries running account surpluses will be the largest economies over time.

Re:Hmmm (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256327)

Your argument is FAIL.

There won't be less resources. There will be either just as many or (more likely) more resources, and they will be used in a better way.
But more people means less more PER PERSON.

Also, the USA, with its incredible arrogance, once again assumes if it falls, everyone would fall with it, since we're all *soo* dependent and we can't possibly find somebody else.
Well, first of all, nearly nobody is dependent on you, while you are massively dependent on the rest of the world. That's what the import/export statistics say.
And secondly, nobody gives much of a crap about you anymore.

Basically, that means that *you* are in decline and debs, and *only you*. The thing in the EU is grown on your shit, and things like that won't happen like that without your criminal industry (like Goldman Sachs).
We'll just waste until the wasteland that was once the USA is void and overgrown, and start a new country on top of it.

Re:Hmmm (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256457)

Mod up!

2030 The year of the Linux Cyborg (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255557)

In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find
In the year 3535

Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doin' that for you

In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube

In the year 7510
If God's a-coming, He oughta make it by then

Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
"Guess it's time for the Judgement Day"

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head

He'll either say, "I'm pleased where man has been"
Or tear it down, and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive

He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been ten thousand years, man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday

Re:2030 The year of the Linux Cyborg (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255697)

In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find
In the year 3535

XTC's version was funnier and rather closer to the date in question.

2032
Housewives shock in blue
What in the world is it coming to
What in the world

2033
Cannabis in tea
What in the world
Acid is free
What in the world

If daddy could see today
He'd be turning in his grave
If mummy could see the way
The boys and girls
And the manner in which
They talk to their parents

2034
Women fight the wars
Men are too bored
They're scrubbing floors
Men are too bored
They're staying at home
Doing the chores
What in the world

Do you remember when this life
Was in perspective
And the grownups were respected
They'd give up a seat on the bus
Open your door with no fuss

2035
The whole world's one beehive
Throw us a line you might be in time
Throw us a line
What in the world
Who gets the girl
What in the world

Predict this (1)

sackofdonuts (2717491) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255569)

What happens when the world economy collapses due to unchecked greed by banks and corporations. Mass rioting and general world wide social upheaval will ensue. What middle class will survive that. And what about the zombies?

Re:Predict this (1)

loufoque (1400831) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255931)

People will eventually learn that they should work to earn money instead of rioting and asking for the governments to compensate them for their bad business decisions.

Re:Predict this (4, Insightful)

Squiddie (1942230) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256161)

People will eventually learn

That's where you're wrong.

Re:Predict this (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256307)

The people don't need to make bad decisions when the banks and corporations do it for them.

Re:Predict this (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256341)

For the rich, war is good. Right? I mean, get the population to kill itself off. If you have less people, there's a greater ratio of resources, plus it's easier to control less people than more.

That's assuming... (2)

lilfields (961485) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255573)

That's assuming that China isn't torn into civil disarray. They "classes" in Chinese society make the American "classes" seem like a tight group. There are cities that sit empty in China...not because there is no demand for them, but because the Chinese government has banned "certain" people from buying anything there; not to mention any attempt to truly criticize the government is crushed and the internet access is strict. China is in for some rocky years, I'm sure they will overtake the U.S. eventually in output, but their civil society has tons of catching up to do after that.

Re:That's assuming... (1)

lilfields (961485) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255583)

*the classes

Re:That's assuming... (1)

AHuxley (892839) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256007)

The CIA has a few good plans for that :) Recall ST Circus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Tibetan_uprising [wikipedia.org]
If people are wondering what real docs like this read like try the old classic from the mid 1970's
National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interest
http://faculty.plattsburgh.edu/richard.robbins/legacy/memo%20200.htm [plattsburgh.edu]
What was the view that: poor regions are breeding up, their young will be smart and wont just export raw materials for cents in the US$.
Their gov are now trading outside the US$.

I for one... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255577)

I for one welcomed our cybernetic overlords, who built a time machine which brought me back here to tell you not to build the(*^^(&*^ NO CARRIER.

Re:I for one... (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256069)

And yet somehow, the submit button was still clicked.

Wonderful ... but is it worth paying attention to? (1)

Lord Strongpants (2751893) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255587)

This NIC mob have been releasing their "Global Trends 20XX" for some time now. In fact, if you head over here: http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf [dni.gov] you can see what they were saying about 2015. I'll be wanting to read that report, and see how right they were, before paying any attention to the latest one. Unfortunately they seem to have been /.-ed and that link is downloading VERY slowly.

Re:Wonderful ... but is it worth paying attention (1)

fredprado (2569351) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256047)

Obviously their former predictions weren't 100% accurate or nowhere near it, as it always happens when you try to predict the future. That said, the article you linked isn't that far off. There are at least as many rights as there are wrongs.

It must be said. (1)

VortexCortex (1117377) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255595)

I, for one, welcome our new stronger, faster, older, hungrier cybernetic overlords (made in China).

Decline of labor/rise of automation (1)

AcidPenguin9873 (911493) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255599)

I obviously haven't read the report, but does it factor in the massive employment losses that automation is going to continue to produce? How will this global middle class actually be able to afford anything if there isn't enough employment available to pay people a living wage? Are they assuming socialization of food, water, housing, and healthcare?

Obviously new jobs arise (1)

SuperKendall (25149) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255621)

does it factor in the massive employment losses that automation is going to continue to produce? How will this global middle class actually be able to afford anything if there isn't enough employment available to pay people a living wage?

You are totally ignoring the ripe wages the robot repair people will make.

Also the prosthetics yielding super-human abilities will give rise to a class of vigilantes that earn money through rewards for stopping crime.

People will figure out how to make money, I'd not worry about that...

Re:Obviously new jobs arise (1)

Lord Strongpants (2751893) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255651)

People will figure out how to make money, I'd not worry about that...

Indeed. It seems much of the economic analysis in the report (and in the comments here, for that matter) is labouring under the misconception that the exchange of money is the cause of human interaction, rather than a symptom of it.

Re:Decline of labor/rise of automation (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255643)

Shouldn't be difficult to afford things if the automation has made them dirt cheap. And word on the street is that 2030 will be the year of Linux on the Desktop.

Re:Decline of labor/rise of automation (1)

poity (465672) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256377)

I don't think there will be massive employment loss. At most there will be a temporary dip if people can't catch up with the transition, but nothing permanent. I imagine global manufacturing will steadily transition from large companies employing thousands of people to individuals or small groups of individuals. As automation increases, more and more people will take up service roles like design and engineering. One person or a handful of people will make their living designing products for a niche of a few thousand customers, manufacturing with robots and 3D printers, kind of like YouTube but for things instead of videos. And just like YouTube, there will be people who get famous and rich overnight with a smart or sensational product, but most will get by with an average income like they do now. Of course large companies won't entirely disappear, but will decline as automation capability grows more sophisticated.

I wish you luck. (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255627)

Hello from England, and welcome our american cousins to the world of 'first amongst equals' where you will learn first hand the meaning of the words 'special relationship' and I look forward to hearing your opinion of it when you are the ones bending over.

Re:I wish you luck. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256335)

I'm not sure what you're talking about but it sounds like it has something to do America treating England like its bitch. But hey, things could be worse. You could be speaking Russian now.

Japan (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255751)

25 years ago we thought Japan would take over. The reality is that China would desintegrate into smaller entities and their piano robots will continue to fail playing Beethoven's Appasionata. And then there is conflict and tension within Asia. Fortunately the United States have no real idea what they want in Asia. My bet is on Europe, the cradle of the occident.

Re:Japan (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255899)

I'd wager that the United States will also breakup into smaller countries. There's a trend starting even now with some states creating sovereignty legislation to make sure that what they were told was under their control when they became a state remains under their control as the federal government tries to exert more control over everything in the country. One even barely missed passing a law that would give themselves the right to create their own currency and standing army under certain conditions.

I'd like to read the report from 20 years ago (2)

peter303 (12292) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255787)

Most of the time its an extrapolation of trends from that time and missing the Black Swans (unpredictable events). 1992 was a just before the first World Trade Center bombing. There are been other islamic terror incidents before then. But I wonder if anyone would predict US in major wars on that topic.

Also there were lots of protypes of the web around, none dominant. I would not have predicted it would have grown that fast into the public world.

Re:I'd like to read the report from 20 years ago (2)

Lord Strongpants (2751893) | about a year and a half ago | (#42255871)

The report from 15 years ago is here:
http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf [dni.gov]

I found that link to download VERY slowly, and the PDF appears to be rasterised pages? Ick ick ick ick.
Anyway, suffice it to say that they missed a fair few very important trends. Like the social network platforms and social media that would emerge. The upheavals in the petroleum market, the shift towards gas, etc.

No... that's too soon. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255913)

The prediction of cyborgs being commonplace is off by about 2 decades.

Don't ask how I know... you wouldn't believe me anyways.

Will the cyborgs ... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255945)

come equipped with bad accents like someone from Austria?

idiotic predictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42255997)

Why the hell do humans need to live longer? China should've kept its general public on bicycles. The west is a lousy role model. Now everyone and their sister wants a car. That isn't progress. Its accelerating the demise of the remaining natural world. Humanity really needs the natural world to remain intact. Instead, the public receive these idiotic predictions.

No civil war in China? (1, Insightful)

erice (13380) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256039)

It is widely believed that China needs 8% growth in order to maintain domestic stability. There is no way they can maintain this through 2030. They got this far by draining Western economies through aggressive exports. The Western economies are already faltering and internal consumption is heavily dependent on a real estate bubble.

Great track record. (4, Insightful)

140Mandak262Jamuna (970587) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256065)

It is the same guys who have predicted 200$ barrel of oil by 2010, or the onset of depression when Bill Clinton enacted the biggest tax increase in the history of the USA in 1993. They seem to completely ignore the demographic time bomb in China. Several generations of strict enforcement of one child policy has aged its population very very quickly. Children grew up without brothers/sister, their children did not have aunts or uncles, now the grand children have no grand uncles or grand aunts. One working couple supports all their surviving ancestors. Their government pensions have dwindled in value to nothing. China could be the first country to go from agrarian/developing country to a geriatric country short circuiting the usual industrial/developed country phase.

China is running a trade deficit with most other countries supplying it with raw materials. It runs a surplus only with a few western countries. And Japan-China hatred goes back several centuries. These complex interactions do not lend themselves to extrapolation on a graph sheet easily.

Anyway, even if it does come to pass, it is just reversion to pre 18th century world power balance. Till about 1750s, 25% of world GDP came from India and another 25% from China.

Dyslexia's a bitch (1)

Grayhand (2610049) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256185)

I thought it said Chinese cyborgs rise in 2030

the Singualarity will be here in 20 years? (1)

GLMDesigns (2044134) | about a year and a half ago | (#42256237)

Ok. Maybe not *here.* But the cybernetic augmentation comes pretty dam close.

In other trends, (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42256367)

By 2030 there will be 57 U.S. intelligence agencies.

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