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Tablet Shipments Will Finally Overtake Notebooks In 2013

Soulskill posted about a year and a half ago | from the get-off-my-lawn dept.

Handhelds 66

An anonymous reader writes "Nowadays, it's not really a question of whether tablet shipments will surpass notebook shipments, but when. Back in July 2012, NPD forecasted 2016 as the year, but today it's saying this year will be it. More specifically, NPD estimated tablet shipments will reach more than 240 million units worldwide in 2013, compared to the company's projection of 207 million notebook shipments this year. This gap is significant enough that, even if NPD's estimates are out by some margin, tablet numbers will still overtake those of notebooks."

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2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42525873)

Sorry Linux, you can't have 2013, Tablet claimed dibs.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (2)

jedidiah (1196) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526929)

> Sorry Linux, you can't have 2013, Tablet claimed dibs.

What do you think is running on those tablets?

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (4, Funny)

viperidaenz (2515578) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527045)

iOS?

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527117)

Unlikely.

iOS is for old people.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42528713)

iOS is for old people.

Wrong IOS is for girls and girly men.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42529383)

iOS is for old people.

Wrong IOS is for girls and faggots.

FTFY.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (1)

ozmanjusri (601766) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527193)

Maybe for another few months.

Earlier this month, we saw that the iPad market share had dropped to just 50.4%, so it may seem odd that it would take another 6-10 months before Apple finally slips under 50% of the tablet market, but Sameer Singh, analyst for Tech-Thoughts, says that the recent drop was something of an aberration, and Apple iPad market share will surge before dropping below 50 by mid-2013 will surge again before falling back.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/iPad-market-share-will-surge-before-dropping-below-50-by-mid-2013_id36694 [phonearena.com]

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42528349)

But, but, when the iPad came out all the apple haters told me tablets were just a 'Fad'

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42529901)

Android sells a lot of tablets that end up collecting dust somewhere. At least that's what our web analytics tells us.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (1)

FatAlb3rt (533682) | about a year and a half ago | (#42533863)

I would say your web analytics are telling you that Android tablets aren't being used for web browsing.... or maybe just browsing your site(s).

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42548023)

This is probably the case. I'm a good example; I have a Nook. It's an Android tablet, but I just about never browse the web with it. It does have a browser, but the Android browser sucks so hard that I would rather put down my Nook and find my iPad or go to a computer if I want to see a website.

Re:2013 Is the Year of the Tablet (1)

Plumpaquatsch (2701653) | about a year and a half ago | (#42534239)

Maybe for another few months.

Earlier this month, we saw that the iPad market share had dropped to just 50.4%, so it may seem odd that it would take another 6-10 months before Apple finally slips under 50% of the tablet market, but Sameer Singh, analyst for Tech-Thoughts, says that the recent drop was something of an aberration, and Apple iPad market share will surge before dropping below 50 by mid-2013 will surge again before falling back.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/iPad-market-share-will-surge-before-dropping-below-50-by-mid-2013_id36694 [phonearena.com]

Errm, this was the quarter before the iPad Mini came out.

I can see it. (4, Insightful)

Capt.DrumkenBum (1173011) | about a year and a half ago | (#42525905)

There are plenty of people who can do everything they use a computer for on a tablet. I would guess most of those people are not on /.
For example my mother and sister, both use their computers for email, facebook, a little research, some cheezy games (Solitaire) and that is pretty much it.

All of that can easily be done on a cheep tablet.

Personally I will keep my laptop with a keyboard, but even I do most of my email on my Nexus 7 these days.

Re:I can see it. (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527031)

I can see it too. Only a few of my friends are hardcore command line techies - and I know more techies than average. THe rest just want an appliance - something that lets them get to Facebok and post pictures on their tumblr.

I tried to point this trend and its inevitable conclusion out on slashdot about 3 years ago but was shouted down with cries of, "I'll NEVER happen, because tablets
uck for autocad!!!11one!!"

Well, here we are.

Re:I can see it. (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527245)

Yeah, content creation is dead. We don't need to make anything more than an Instagram post to facebook and maybe respond with a tweet.

The goal of allowing people to compose symphonies or write great novels, or even code up a simple game is up in smoke. You have the tablet. Take a picture, write a tweet, and most importantly, consume the content of your walled garden.

Re:I can see it. (1)

AReilly (9339) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527939)

That's not it at all: tablets are now (or will be soon) just "screens": no different from the one in your lounge room or on front of the fridge. The circuits are just moving around a bit. If you want to *do* something with it, you'll be able to use that box with the hard drives and the peripherals sitting in the corner of your office just as easily as you can now, or you can rent space on someone's cloud server, if you prefer.

Don't think of it as losing your PC. It's more the case that your laptop/desktop monitor can still do a range of useful things after the "PC" has been powered down. There are already plenty of manufacturers who have the clue, and are selling WiFi enabled network hard drives: "personal cloud" systems.

Re:I can see it. (4, Insightful)

ikaruga (2725453) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528665)

How many people with desktop computers or standard laptops do any of the things you said? Content creation has always been something for the 1% of the computer users [wikipedia.org] . The only reason desktops where so popular in the 90s and laptops in the 00s is simple because there were no cheap tablets/smartphones yet. Most people just want to check their facebook/twitter, do some quick office work like school reports or taxes or just watch porn.
But don't worry, content creation is not dead. Content creators will buy content creation tools. The existence of DSLR cameras, external sound boards, mixers, professional GPUs, pen tablets, 3D mouses, microcontroller programmers and the thousands of professional software tools for anything you can imagine are the proof that content creation is as alive as ever. Classical laptops and desktops will just shift in to this category as well.

Re:I can see it. (0)

Sigg3.net (886486) | about a year and a half ago | (#42535361)

Try explaining 'walled garden' to an iFanatic and s/he will tell you how only a miniscule portion of humanity could possibly want something outside the walls.

Re:I can see it. (1)

maddixclifford (2743143) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528101)

There is only one thing I know, technology upgrades everyday!

Re:I can see it. (1)

ignavus (213578) | about a year and a half ago | (#42529113)

All of that can easily be done on a cheep tablet.

...that doesn't have a spell checker

Re:I can see it. (1)

Capt.DrumkenBum (1173011) | about a year and a half ago | (#42534159)

I can make spelling mistakes on any platform.
Also I used to think Lawyers were the lowest form of life. Now, I know that spelling Nazis are the lowest form of life.

Re:I can see it. (1)

mcgrew (92797) | about a year and a half ago | (#42534569)

Actually, that is the drawback of spell checkers. Dew knot truss yore spill checker!

Hey, whatever happened (3, Insightful)

Flipao (903929) | about a year and a half ago | (#42525931)

To the "tablets are a fad" crowd?

They were a lot louder 2 years ago.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

macemoneta (154740) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526007)

To the "tablets are a fad" crowd?
  They were a lot louder 2 years ago.

Tablet makers addressed the issue by including HID support, so that keyboards / mice could be used. Some even include a standard size USB port, supporting thumb-drives in addition to input devices. This lets people use a tablet as a laptop when / if needed, and leave the excess baggage behind when it's not.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (2, Insightful)

samkass (174571) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526511)

To the "tablets are a fad" crowd?

  They were a lot louder 2 years ago.

Tablet makers addressed the issue by including HID support, so that keyboards / mice could be used. Some even include a standard size USB port, supporting thumb-drives in addition to input devices. This lets people use a tablet as a laptop when / if needed, and leave the excess baggage behind when it's not.

Except that the iPad has had Bluetooth keyboard support from the moment it was released, and there were Bluetooth cases with built-in keyboards shortly thereafter. Most opt never to buy one. It doesn't seem to have been the thing holding back any significant segment of the market.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

Adrian Lopez (2615) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527455)

Except that the iPad has had Bluetooth keyboard support from the moment it was released, and there were Bluetooth cases with built-in keyboards shortly thereafter. Most opt never to buy one.

Those who opt never to buy a Bluetooth keyboard aren't using their tablets the way PC advocates use their laptops and desktops. They don't need a keyboard on their tablets because they already have a computer for those things, or else they don't need personal computers at all.

For people who mostly browse the web, read e-books, do some occasional typing, and don't need to run anything other than what's available available through their device's app store, tablets are an excellent PC substitute.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

delt0r (999393) | about a year and a half ago | (#42530785)

Of course not. If you have an iPad you should also have a Mac Book air or whatever its called. And 2 iPhone and you can't go wrong with a few of those massive apple monitors for pluging that air into when your at your desk.

I am in a office full of apple things. However in a more serious note. Everyone i know gets a tablet after they have a laptop. Quite a few people i know didn't bother with a new one(no ipad 2) after the first tablet when they discovered it wasn't as useful as they had hoped. But Meh... whatever people like. I am looking at the convertibles right now. I just wish there where a few with a stylus.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526015)

To the "tablets are a fad" crowd?

They were a lot louder 2 years ago.

Didn't netbooks outsell notebooks and were the next big thing at one point?

I was disappointed in 2010 when I heard about the ipad as I was expecting a powerbook mini instead. I was wrong once the apps came out I guess.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

alen (225700) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526325)

These things alternate
First we have a geek friendly product that bombs then something geeks hate that takes off among real people
After tablets the next thing is wearable computers and google glass. Geeks seem to love it even though there is no practical use for them

"The tablets are coming! The tablets are coming!" (2)

edibobb (113989) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527345)

I had a college professor (an excellent teacher, incidentally) who said in the 1970's that "Personal computers are just a flash in the pan" and that the general population would never be able to manage a real computer.

Re:"The tablets are coming! The tablets are coming (1)

geminidomino (614729) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528731)

the general population would never be able to manage a real computer.

Anyone who's recently been on the business end of a tech support line/trouble ticketing system can attest that the general population still hasn't proven him wrong on that point, yet. :)

Re:Hey, whatever happened (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527487)

Tablets were a fad. Who, seriously, is buying and selling tablets these days? I see more NETBOOKS available in stores than goddamn tablets.

Face it, tablets are dead and this is some viral campaign by sellers who desperately still want tablets to be relevant to kickstart their dying industry.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

king neckbeard (1801738) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527565)

Actually, "Analysts say X will overtake Y in Z" is often one of the biggest indicators of a fad.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1, Troll)

rtb61 (674572) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528519)

Hmm, how about this. "We need to ramp up marketing. sales are dropping, hmm, how can we further break up notebook numbers so that we can outsell them?". Notebooks, chrome books, netbooks, smartbooks, laptops, shit still not enough. I know notebooks that can double as tablets are now not notebooks they are tablets with an attached keyboards. 'WAHOO' tablets to outsell notebooks in 2013 brought to you by the maggots in the Apple marketing.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

Tough Love (215404) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528717)

They shut up as soon as they could get a Linux tablet.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42529517)

To the "tablets are a fad" crowd?

Still here! I know several people who received tablets for Christmas. Great fun for a few days, but now the tablets are lying on the counter under a pile of newspapers.

It is telling that they recipients are back to their own familiar apps on the laptop.

Tablets are toys. Just like toys they will go in and out of fashion.

Re:Hey, whatever happened (1)

delt0r (999393) | about a year and a half ago | (#42530799)

Well i want to know how a tablet is not a Personal Computer? Seems to me that nothing much has changed other than we can good stuff that is both smaller and costs us less disposal income.

Because of Windows 8 (4, Interesting)

Billly Gates (198444) | about a year and a half ago | (#42525989)

Not because people want tablets.

2 different things. Many see them and say, so this is what I have to use?! My old clunker with XP still works and I do not have to put up with that bullshit or they demand a yoga or convertiable tablet/notebook since it is a touch optimized interface anyway.

I tried Windows 8 and it truly is a terrible gui. I can use it and even kind of get used to it out of habit and wanted to keep it ... well a little. Windows 7 went right back on after I had some glitches and realized it will be well supported for 8 more years so why change?

Until I see people actually say "I do not need a notebook. I got my phone or tablet instead?" then I will believe it.

Finally (1)

ToastedRhino (2015614) | about a year and a half ago | (#42525991)

It did take two whole years after all.

Re:Finally (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42526075)

Was anybody actually waiting with bated breath for tablet shipments to overtake notebook shipments? Has anyone breathed a big sigh of relief and can now sleep at night?

I bought one... (1)

ADRA (37398) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526057)

But I don't use it, and it sits on its charger. Soo lonely... =/

Re:I bought one... (4, Funny)

samkass (174571) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526535)

But I don't use it, and it sits on its charger. Soo lonely... =/

I take it you went with Android then?

Tablet with a keyboard case = Small laptop (2)

eksith (2776419) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526059)

While tablets alone may be shipping well (who can argue with the convenience of not having to lug around a full laptop), I'm seeing more and more people get keyboard cases for these. Also, with the plethora of Chinese Android tablets for dirt cheap, it's no wonder.

Also a toy (2, Insightful)

hugortega (721079) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526133)

That's because *many* children uses tablets as a toy... just do the math.

Re:Also a toy (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42526523)

That is a good point. Many parents rather give their children a tablet than a notebook or desktop, either because there are cheap tablets, there are no moving parts, children ask for them, or simply prefer to give their children the more controlled environment of a tablet in comparison to a normal PC. Don't forget that many schools also give their students a tablet nowadays.

Re:Also a toy (1)

SwedishPenguin (1035756) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527135)

It's also easier to use for kids than learning how to use a mouse and keyboard. Even a one-year-old can point on a screen, the pointing will trigger some sort of action on screen, maybe a sound, and they will be amused.

Re:Also a toy (1)

LodCrappo (705968) | about a year and a half ago | (#42529935)

"can point on a screen, the pointing will trigger some sort of action on screen, maybe a sound, and they will be amused."

Pretty much sums up 95% of tablet usage across *all* ages of users.

Define "tablet" (1)

markdavis (642305) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526173)

Define "tablet"

Might sound silly, but the lines are blurring more and more. ARM only? X86? Android? MS-Windows-8 RT? MS-Windows non-RT? Keyboard attached or no? Docking? Lenovo Twist X86 machine with rotating touchscreen running Linux? 5" phone device? 6" phone? Lenovo Yoga ARM running RT? Lenovo Yoga ARM running Android? Chromebook?

Re:Define "tablet" (1)

aristotle-dude (626586) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526525)

Define "tablet"

Might sound silly, but the lines are blurring more and more. ARM only? X86? Android? MS-Windows-8 RT? MS-Windows non-RT? Keyboard attached or no? Docking? Lenovo Twist X86 machine with rotating touchscreen running Linux? 5" phone device? 6" phone? Lenovo Yoga ARM running RT? Lenovo Yoga ARM running Android? Chromebook?

Ok, tablet == iPad. None of those other "tablets" are selling that well.

Android Tablet Marketshare Up To %42.7 (3, Informative)

AddisonW (2318666) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526715)

"Ok, tablet == iPad. None of those other "tablets" are selling that well."

http://bgr.com/2012/12/05/tablet-market-share-2012/ [bgr.com]

Not only does tablet not equal iPad. iPads look to have a smaller marketshare than Android in the near future.

Settlers on Tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527427)

My wife is due an upgrade, she likes to surf, play games like Settlers, play videos, music. Her existing PC has Intel graphics, and isn't suitable for modern games.

It was difficult finding a small, quiet, cheap, no fuss PC, but then I found Settlers is made for Android too, and my problems are solved. She'll get tablet next.

I figure she'll be able to find all the games she wants for tablet as easy as PC, and I quite frankly don't like her PC taking up so much space.

This is why Wintel is doomed.

Re:Android Tablet Marketshare Up To %42.7 (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527991)

"Ok, tablet == iPad. None of those other "tablets" are selling that well."

http://bgr.com/2012/12/05/tablet-market-share-2012/ [bgr.com]

Not only does tablet not equal iPad. iPads look to have a smaller marketshare than Android in the near future.

Did you not look at the article you linked to? They estimate Android tablets' market share will still lag 10% behind iPads' in 2016.

Re:Android Tablet Marketshare Up To %42.7 (1)

markdavis (642305) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528399)

>"Did you not look at the article you linked to? They estimate Android tablets' market share will still lag 10% behind iPads' in 2016."

And even if it were true, then that would still mean 40% of the market, which is a HUGE share. So tablet does not equal iPad, neither now nor in the future.

Re:Android Tablet Marketshare Up To %42.7 (1)

Plumpaquatsch (2701653) | about a year and a half ago | (#42535977)

>"Did you not look at the article you linked to? They estimate Android tablets' market share will still lag 10% behind iPads' in 2016."

And even if it were true, then that would still mean 40% of the market, which is a HUGE share. So tablet does not equal iPad, neither now nor in the future.

Errm, around 3 iPad models sold (not counting color or cell mobile module variations) - vs. at least as many models by dozens of manufacturers? Yeah, when the best selling Android tablet sells less than half the number of the worst selling iPad model, tablet does equal iPad.

Re:Android Tablet Marketshare Up To %42.7 (1)

Plumpaquatsch (2701653) | about a year and a half ago | (#42535797)

"Ok, tablet == iPad. None of those other "tablets" are selling that well."

http://bgr.com/2012/12/05/tablet-market-share-2012/ [bgr.com]

Not only does tablet not equal iPad. iPads look to have a smaller marketshare than Android in the near future.

Odd that your source doesn't say that at all.

Re:Define "tablet" (1)

hraponssi (1939850) | about a year and a half ago | (#42526653)

How about define "notebook"?

A pile of paper people write on with a pen?

Re:Define "tablet" (1)

viperidaenz (2515578) | about a year and a half ago | (#42527119)

Define "laptop"

sp0nge (-1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42526243)

dim. If *BSD i8s

That's fast (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42526331)

For those who complain that Slashdot takes a long time to publish news, here's an article on something that hasn't happened yet!

Sad.. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42526633)

That people'd rather have a low power, low performence tablet that cost more than low end, much more powerful, notebook, for the same price.

Re:Sad.. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527257)

No, people would rather have reliable and quick, to a slow boot/application load process and viruses/malware plagued systems.

Can't we just have them all with rotating screens? (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42527365)

Why can't all of the laptops be made with rotating screens and multi-touch ? The hardware will cost the same once it's all tablets. There's really very little to lose. Maybe 2mm extra on the screen but the rest should be the same.

And there's so much to gain: People would want more and more responsiveness and will be willing to pay for extra computing and graphics power.

It's like the monitor resolution all over again... Can't they see they're causing this recession by artificially cartel-ling up and delaying technology ? Didn't the car industry failure or Apple success had anything to teach them ?

What a waste...

"Finally"?!? (1)

Zadaz (950521) | about a year and a half ago | (#42528489)

I don't think that word means what you think it does.

BFD! (1)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42529523)

Last year, sales of pairs of shoes surpassed sales of new and used cars combined! Far exceeded!

Sales of socks exceeded sales of shoes for the 800th year running, and sales of toothPICKS exceeded sales of toothBRUSHES by over 10 to 1.

So fucking what? Tablets can't do all the things desktops can do, so that's like worrying that backpacks have outsold suitcases. Until people start preferring to travel using backpacks instead of suitcases, there will continue to be a market for suitcases. Tablets are NOT a direct AND complete replacement for luggage, just as socks are not a complete substitute for shoes.

So get over yourselves. So fucking what tablets outsold notebooks. Phones outsold tablets, and beer outsold all of the above, so fuck it! This is no big fucking deal, okay? Fuck!

i wonder how they define tablet (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42529765)

will it categorise a convertible laptop as a tablet, a laptop, or both?

Surface Pro all the way (0)

Anonymous Coward | about a year and a half ago | (#42532655)

Once the Surface Pro comes out, there will be no reason to purchase a laptop ever again.

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