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How Baidu Tracked the Largest Seasonal Migration of People On Earth

samzenpus posted 2 days ago | from the where-you-going? dept.

China 47

KentuckyFC writes During the Chinese New Year earlier this year, some 3.6 billion people traveled across China making it the largest seasonal migration on Earth. These kinds of mass movements have always been hard to study in detail. But the Chinese web services company Baidu has managed it using a mapping app that tracked the location of 200 million smartphone users during the New Year period. The latest analysis of this data shows just how vast this mass migration is. For example, over 2 million people left the Guandong province of China and returned just a few days later--that's equivalent to the entire population of Chicago upping sticks. The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.

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mars one will get people off earth (-1)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371647)

Not a long time ago, I was just a normal internet user that surfed various news sites like Sladshdot [slashdot.org] , reddit, or wsj.com. I read a story, perhaps clicked onto some links it contained, and I was mostly happy with my life.

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Read on below for the rest what Bennett has to say.

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To find that out, I went to Sladshdot's [slashdot.org] search bar and searched for "Bennett". I clicked the second entry, and it began with:

Frequent contributor Bennett Haselton writes

I searched for the "Read on" line, and I was happy when I found it. As it seemed, he was a frequent contributor. However the story was on a topic completely unrelated to the topic of my article. Would the other article still be as insightful as the first? And the other stories in the search result? Would they be also by Bennett? Or someone else? I decided first to be happy to have found such an insightful article, and decided to make a photograph of me, before I read the second story.

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disagree with you. What you call opinion, is in reality just ideology you imitate from others. You don't form your opinions, you don't have them.

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I'm confident Bennett will write on this topic too, but until then I'm sorry that I can't form an opinion on this unless Bennett, frequent contributor, has written a story about it. Please ask him to contribute to slashdot once again.

"Willing"? (1)

grasshoppa (657393) | 2 days ago | (#48371681)

The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.

Right..."willing"...let's go with that.

Re:"Willing"? (1)

NotInHere (3654617) | 2 days ago | (#48371775)

They agreed to that in the terms. So they had the choice. :-)

I think the root of the problem is that most people don't care about their data, and therefore don't demand for change in the terms. Telcos would give you options if enough people cared.

Digital devices make being monitored very convenient. People would object if they had to fill out forms or similar, but as long as they don't get disturbed with their daily lifes they don't care.

Re:"Willing"? (2)

gstoddart (321705) | 2 days ago | (#48371803)

Well, in fairness, when everyone flies home for Thanksgiving, the airports and people who provide wifi will be able to do the exact same thing.

'Willing' can include "don't give a fuck as along as they have free wifi and can update their Facebook status/play whatever game they're all playing".

The modern definition of "willing" when you're discussing technology is "hasn't disabled this functionality or removed the battery from their phone".

Who needs consent when you own the network?

Re:"Willing"? (2)

rasmusbr (2186518) | 2 days ago | (#48372021)

Never fear. TFA says:

"The Chinese researchers mention the question of privacy, however. That’s an issue that would make this kind of tracking difficult in democratic countries, or at least the public acknowledgement of it.

See that? Companies that make apps would never dare to ask you to let them access your location if you live in a democracy.

Re:"Willing"? (1)

timeOday (582209) | 2 days ago | (#48372953)

Ha ha, welcome to America, land of the Free, where your actions and movements are never tracked. Laughable.

Just 20 years ago, I honestly believed that if we started to get security cameras everywhere like Great Britain was doing, they would just get shot out all the time. I actually thought that.

Re:"Willing"? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372997)

Chinese culture is a bit more about harmony and the individual providing for the greater good of the community at large, and much less about personal security and privacy than Western cultures. While most Chinese I know are certainly aware of the censorship and government control and many would prefer it to be less restrictive, in general they seem much less concerned about these kinds of things than Westerners.

Lots of volunteers, I'm sure. (1)

SeaFox (739806) | 2 days ago | (#48371695)

The work shows how easy it is to track the movement of large numbers of people with current technology--assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way.

And the ones who aren't? Well, we'll track them, too! One way or another.

Too Many Volunteers (1)

Roger W Moore (538166) | 2 days ago | (#48371907)

Given that 3.6 billion is almost three times the population of China I'm guessing they are using somewhat dodgy statistics either that or they are counting each journey made by the same person and that person makes multiple journeys.

Re:Too Many Volunteers (1)

slashmydots (2189826) | 2 days ago | (#48373977)

It's China. Every last thing they release is a fake/lie/fraud. That extends to statistics. You should go read what they say about their own pollution levels. They make the vacuum of space look dirty by comparison.

Re:Too Many Volunteers (1)

Roger W Moore (538166) | yesterday | (#48376073)

You should go read what they say about their own pollution levels. They make the vacuum of space look dirty by comparison.

Actually they might technically be correct if they are claiming that their air is "just like being in space": in both cases you need to bring your own oxygen supply to survive.

3.6 Billion (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371703)

isn't that more than 1/2 of the world's population???

Re:3.6 Billion (1)

CajunArson (465943) | 2 days ago | (#48371751)

Google Sez: Population of China 1.357 billion.

So obviously they have a mass cloning program followed by an unimaginably horrific slaughter for every Chinese new year. w00t.

Re:3.6 Billion (2)

Panspechi (948400) | 2 days ago | (#48371787)

Submitter/editors can't make the distinction between passengers (which one person can be multiple times) and people. It's a hard life...

Re:3.6 Billion (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371865)

No, the original article says billion too. I suspect it's a typo, and million is meant.

Re:3.6 Billion (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371895)

So obviously they have a mass cloning program followed by an unimaginably horrific slaughter for every Chinese new year. w00t.

How else are you going to feed all those people?

How many people are in China? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371735)

Google says that the entire population of China is 1.357 billion people. Did they all and another 2.243 billion tourists migrate across China?

So, yeah... 3.6 billion seems kinda fishy. (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371805)

From the Cornell page for the paper:
Comments: Rejected by Science after in-depth review.

Presumably passenger journeys, not people (2)

shilly (142940) | 2 days ago | (#48371863)

As others have said, 3.6bn people can't be travelling. I guess they must be counting individual, substantial journeys, but they don't say, which is a bit rubbish. I noticed that this number was unsourced, which also seemed a bit rubbish.

Could be the green death (1)

anonymous_wombat (532191) | 2 days ago | (#48372175)

As others have said, 3.6bn people can't be travelling. I guess they must be counting individual, substantial journeys, but they don't say, which is a bit rubbish. I noticed that this number was unsourced, which also seemed a bit rubbish.

I was wondering how the Chinese were hiding all those billions of extra people.

Re:Could be the green death (1)

swillden (191260) | 2 days ago | (#48374527)

I was wondering how the Chinese were hiding all those billions of extra people.

In underground shelters. They're preparing for the day they'll swarm out of hiding and bring the whole world into the light and harmony of Chinese Communism. The world will like this very much[*].

But even secret armies deserve to go home for the holidays.

[*] Extensive re-education may be required.

Re:Could be the green death (1)

wvmarle (1070040) | 2 days ago | (#48374697)

That are all second and third (illegal) children. Plus of course all the second wives (aka mistresses).

Re:Presumably passenger journeys, not people (1)

wvmarle (1070040) | 2 days ago | (#48374713)

I'm more used to hearing about numbers in the tune of 200-300 million people travelling over the New Year holidays - China's most important celebration. That's mostly migrant workers travelling back home, plus some tens of millions of tourists.

No matter what, this are huge numbers.

China's population ~1.3 Billion... (1)

swb (14022) | 2 days ago | (#48371867)

How did triple the population of China migrate across China?

Wait.. HALF THE WORLD?!? (1)

blueshift_1 (3692407) | 2 days ago | (#48371883)

World population is about 7.1 Billion (give or take a few). How did HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION travel across China around a small time period. I feel like they may need to check a few number and make a move a few decimals.

Re:Wait.. HALF THE WORLD?!? (1)

rahultyagi (924414) | 2 days ago | (#48371953)

I agree that it is a bit confusing. That number seems impossibly large. Perhaps they mean "number of passengers" which means that the same person making 2 return trips might be counted as 4 passengers? It is like saying "New York City's subway serves X million passengers per week", where every single person is probably counted multiple times based on the number of trips they make.

Re:Wait.. HALF THE WORLD?!? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372219)

There's a Chinese unit of measure for 100 million, (yi), which I think the article mistakenly assumes is a billion. So the actual number is not 3.6 billion but 3.6 x 100 million, so 360 million.

Re:Wait.. HALF THE WORLD?!? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371963)

The problem is THAT they moved a few decimal places.

The 2.3B number was some bullshit extrapolation of the 200M phones they tracked.

Re:Wait.. HALF THE WORLD?!? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372091)

I suspect that owning smartphones and having the means to travel are positively correlated...

I love it when (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48371977)

They need to cross the river and evade the crocodiles. So regal. So majestic.

"assuming they are willing" (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372077)

"assuming they are willing"

Is this a subtle attempt at comedy, a stunning level of naivety, or yet another Slashdot editors mistake?

We are talking about CHINA here, in what way, shape or form does a Chinese citizen have any say whatsoever in whether they are tracked and monitored?
How does the "willingness" of a Chinese citizen have any bearing on whether they are tracked or not?

Warning: link goes to "medium.com" (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372079)

Also a shit site

In China? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372221)

"assuming they are willing to allow their data to be used in this way" lol

3.6 BILLION? (0)

Zamphatta (1760346) | 2 days ago | (#48372237)

There's only 1.357 billion Chinese, so did all of them move, and another 2.243 billion come there from outside of China, to travel across China? The article really doesn't explain where they're getting the numbers from, & I'm having a hard time believing that HALF of all humans went to Beijing for Chinese New Year. According to the article, Baidu's app was on only 200 million cell phones to be able to do this.

3.6 billion? (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372353)

This is patently false to anyone with half a brain.

EDITORS: DO YOUR JOBS!

3.6 billion.. devices! (1)

Protonome (831904) | 2 days ago | (#48372435)

I know baidu for being presented here in Brazil as an antivirus, with TV commercials, when actually it really acts as a virus!! Every device here has baidu installed, 1 person may have 1 or 2 cell phones, a tablet and a laptop and there you have the count..

3.6 billion passenger trips. (2)

wcrowe (94389) | 2 days ago | (#48372443)

This article [techinasia.com] says it's 3.6 billion passenger trips. Over a 40-day period, that's a little more believable, but I wonder what is counted as a "passenger trip". Let's say I live in NYC, and I want to travel to Lincoln, Nebraska for the holiday. So, subway ride to the airport, that's a passenger trip. Flight to hub in Chicago, another passenger trip. Flight from Chicago to Omaha, another passenger trip. Then whatever means I use to get from Omaha to Lincoln, another passenger trip. Coming home, I do the same thing all in reverse. That's eight passenger trips for one person for the holiday.

So, you take the 3.6 billion passenger trips, and divide it by 4 or 6 or 8 or whatever you think is the average passenger trip per person. Then divide that over a 40 day period, and account for the difference in population, and maybe you get something like a multiple of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

I dunno, I'm just throwing it out there as a possibility.

Re:3.6 billion passenger trips. (1)

magarity (164372) | 2 days ago | (#48372987)

but I wonder what is counted as a "passenger trip"

It's probably something like this: Husband, wife, and child leave the big city to visit husband's parents (3 passenger trips). Same group visits wife's parents (3 more passenger trips). Group returns to the big city, total 9 passenger trips.

Re:3.6 billion passenger trips. (1)

goodmanj (234846) | 2 days ago | (#48374743)

I'd be willing to bet it's intercity rail tickets + airline departures. So if you go from Shanghai to Chengdu by way of Wuhan and Chongquing, that's three passenger trips.

Re:3.6 billion passenger trips. (1)

wvmarle (1070040) | 2 days ago | (#48374741)

It's probably counted like that indeed.

But don't overstate air traffic - it's still quite low capacity compared to trains and buses, which are the transport method of choice for all those migrant workers. Even in the US, if 20% of your population is on the move, 90% of those will have to take other transport than planes.

Of course it's tracking... (0)

Anonymous Coward | 2 days ago | (#48372811)

It's made by the Chinese gov, as if it wouldn't track everything you do. It's worst than google.

Last Train Home (1)

timeOday (582209) | 2 days ago | (#48373009)

If you haven't seen the documentary Last Train Home about the struggles of being a seasonal worker in China and getting home to visit your family once a year, I highly recommend it. For anybody who thought the overcrowded dystopian future feared in the 1970's failed to occur, China is one place where it already did.

Re:Last Train Home (1)

Actually, I do RTFA (1058596) | 2 days ago | (#48373599)

For anybody who thought the overcrowded dystopian future feared in the 1970's failed to occur, China is one place where it already did.

Sheesh, another thing we outsourced to China

damn (1)

spike hay (534165) | 2 days ago | (#48374047)

Can Slashdot at least try to tone down the retardation?

That is NOT a peer reviewed paper (1)

Khopesh (112447) | 2 days ago | (#48374815)

From the linked paper [arxiv.org] , it was rejected:

Rejected by Science after in-depth review

This paper has not been peer reviewed [wikipedia.org] . Read with that in mind (peer review is academic currency).

(That said, it doesn't get much more prestigious than Science. It's merely too early to bring this to bear. Perhaps it will eventually get accepted, reviewed, and then published. Only at that point can it be considered good research.)

Let's Crunch Some Numbers (1)

BBF_BBF (812493) | 2 days ago | (#48374913)

The article says: "over 2 million people left the Guandong province of China and returned just a few days later--that's equivalent to the entire population of Chicago upping sticks"

Sounds pretty major, right?

Well, let's see according to Wikipedia, the population of Guangdong province was 105,940,000 in 2012. So approx. 2% of the population traveled out of province for Chinese New Years. 2% doesn't sound that big compared to "the entire population of Chicago" eh? To put it into perspective, the population of California is approx 38 million, and for Thanksgiving long weekend in 2013, "Statewide, 4.46 million will drive to holiday destinations, and 533,000 will go by plane." according to the AAA. That's over 12% of the population traveling. Granted, not *everybody* left the state. If one just counts the ones the flew by plane, 1.4% of California's residents flew somewhere over Thanksgiving. 2% doesn't sound like that much now.

Honestly, after reading the news reports about the super crowded trains during Chinese New Years, I would have expected the number of people traveling out of Guandong to be *much* higher than 2%.

Ref: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/... [yahoo.com]

bullshit (1)

sociocapitalist (2471722) | 2 hours ago | (#48384951)

The entire population of China is only 1.4 billion people.

Somehow someone extrapolated 3.6 billion from observing 200 million smartphones. Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me given that the entire population of China is less than 1.4 billion to start with.

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