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10 Linux Predictions For 2002

michael posted more than 12 years ago | from the carnac-the-magnificent dept.

Linux Business 372

Weedstock writes: "In an article on LinuxWorld, Joe Barr is once again making 10 predictions about the success of Linux for the new year." The first of many sets of predictions for 2002, no doubt. And some guy named "Robin" or "Roblimo" or something like that wrote about Linux in 2003 for Newsforge.

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anyone care? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757231)

does anyone really care? i mean, shit, man, shit.

10 VA Linux predictions for 2002 (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757339)

10) VA Linux declares bankruptcy. Hemos is accidently sold to Garold O'atse when all remaining assets are auctioned off.
9)
8)
7)
6)
5)
4)
3)
2)
1)

Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... ? (5, Insightful)

Geek Dash Boy (69299) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757233)

As far as I can tell, item #4 has nothing to do with Linux directly. Unless of course you believe it's a matter of MS vs. Linux and that's it.

Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?

Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (2, Insightful)

CentrX (50629) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757293)

Well, presumably anything significant that happens to Microsoft would have a profound effect on the acceptance of Linux in the marketplace. Although the article does not say this, one would think this is how it relates to Linux.

Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (1, Insightful)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757304)

which is a bit silly, really. people have been complaining about computers and hardware and software and fFrankly every aspect of their work place in general, but it usually takes a massive brick to the head to change.

when the industrial revolution hit, and the efficiency experts started moving in, people complained endlessly about not using their own special shovel to move coal and dirt and anything else. It took a fFew really pressing pencil pushers to make anything happen. this my fFriends is what will be required to make linux (or anything else) replace M$.

Re:...have nothing to do with Linux... SAY WHAT? (3, Interesting)

darkPHi3er (215047) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757328)

Boy, it's an amazing world...

I was pretty sure that ALL of them had to do with LINUX, even if not directly...

#'s 1,2,3,6,7,8 and 10 are directly about LINUX

and #'s 4, 5 and 9 are about the competitive PC/ MS v LINUX marketplace...

though i suppose that you could argue that even though number 9, the Darker Image is about taking a shot at MS too, it's principally a good natured poke at some of the less "user friendly" members of our community....

after all guys, it IS LINUX WORLD magazine....

IMHO, i'd say that #'s 2,3 and 7 are serious blue sky

#'s 1,6 and 8 are mulligans

and that 4 and 7 are karma bets

9's a gag and

10 is probably the most accurate of them all

BTW, Joe, stay away from Theo for a while

Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (0)

Black Parrot (19622) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757397)


> Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?

Yes, you missed the fact that "creating a good operating system" and "killing Microsoft" amount to the same thing.

Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (3, Insightful)

Arandir (19206) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757427)

"creating a good operating system" and "killing Microsoft" amount to the same thing.

Not at all. The best doesn't always succeed. Consider BetaMax versus VHS.

The original poster made an excellent point. I would rather be *for* something than *against* something. Somewhere the Linux community took a wrong turn and started measuring Linux according to the Microsoft yardstick. This is wrong. As long as the Microsoft yardstick is used, Microsoft will always win. Let's use an objective yardstick and to hell with everyone playing the us-versus-them game.

Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (2)

Malcontent (40834) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757505)

" I would rather be *for* something than *against* something."

All fine and dany until someone loses an eye. You may be "for" something but have no doubt MS is "against" you. And in case you haven't noticed they play dirty. I know many people are perfectly content with turning the other cheek but don't for a second think that MS will not smack you in the other cheek with a shovel.

There is a war going on just realize that. MS is better armed, better financed, better trained, has more allies. If you are not careful you will be carpetbombed into dust.

Well, duh, where have you been?! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757460)

You must've missed the entire boatload of people who leapt on board because of zealots, and became zealots in turn.

Usually they're found in large groups who do nothing for Linux but use it. :) They also tend to be the first who scream, "Waah, wherez my dvd?!" after they've been spewing, "Waa, Microsoft sucks!" for years.

But, you sir, look normal and sane, if you'll follow me, I'll take you to where all the mature Linux users sit.

pf (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757236)

pf

Re:pf (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757261)

pf kicks the shit outta iptables.

Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (4, Insightful)

hooded1 (89250) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757240)

I'm surprised he didn't predict that Linus Torvalds would be elected head of the UN, and linux would be installed ona satellite thus rendering us the ability to communicate to alien species.
I doubt that the CIA/FBI/NSA even uses windows XP for any sort of confidential information. Most like they're still running the nearly bug free Windows NT, or some incarnation of unix.

Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (1)

gatesh8r (182908) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757268)

I'm more sure that those three organizations are most likely running their own home-brewed OS so at least they can have the sources under their control and their security levels can be assessed in the intrest of national security. I'm sure that they wouldn't be so stupid as to run Windoze XP, at least not without having M$ cough up source code for a security audit.

Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757357)

NSA actually uses a custom version of linux, and they've even made public some of their changes. I thought this was fairly well known. Of course, Larry Wall was at NSA when perl was originally written, as well.

The White house uses Lotus for a lot of internal stuff, at least they did back in the Clinton years, when "technical problems" preventing backups of emails from being accessed were convenient, in the face of weekly subpeonas for the scandal of the week.

According to most movies I've seen, the FBI, CIA, all use some powerful XWindows systems with voice activation, and an AI CLI that understands commands like "find the secret report". However, the passwords necessary to get in are easy to guess.

Linux Applications (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757243)

My wish, Macromedia apps for Linux.

Re:Linux Applications (1, Interesting)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757264)

AMEN!!!

although .. IBM's WebSphere for Linux fFills in many of the gaps.

"predictions"? (3, Insightful)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757244)

Is that a list of predictions, or just a wish list?

"let's see, kick microsoft's ass; win in court; make big money; be fFamous fForever; eat pizza"

(not that i have anything wrong with that list .. but lets call it what it is.)

#1 Linux Prediction for 2002 (-1)

Fecal Troll Matter (445929) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757246)

It'll suck.

Re:#1 Linux Prediction for 2002 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757335)

Yes, that's the niche it has found for itself in the marketplace. Of course, once capitalism goes and people no longer have the means to measure value with money, all bets are off. I dunno, 2004 maybe.

Re:#1 Linux Prediction for 2002 (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757382)

I have to agree with this post. Linux is, at best, a toy operating system. At worst it is the kind of submersive force in America that Stalin only dreamed of creating.

There are "cells" reporting to unknown leaders that only go by names like "L33t_Kernal_Hax0r" that cannot be located - after all, "living in my momma's basement cause I have no real world skills to speak of" is not a true street address.

There is the Marxist concept of "give what you can, take what you need." Only, none of these people can give anything, excepting the few heroes of the revolution that have their own roach filled apartments and must give blow jobs in parks monthly to meet their rent. Yet, they all feel the need to take, take, take. MP3s? "We must have them! It is about freedom for the artists!!" Software? "We must have it for free! It will be good then!!" Movies? "Yes, we must have them for free!!!" Of course, the dirty secret all of these "give it to me free!!!" people are trying to hise is that they have no resources to actually acquire anything legitimate, due to their pathetic skill set and the fact that society has no use for them.

Society, in fact, had no use for them even during their formative years. That's why their lunch money was stolen. Darwin's law was trying to assert itself, but overprotectively indulgent parenting prevented such a thing from happening.

I haev a prediction (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757250)

Linux will continue to get destroyed by Microsoft and Linux fanboys will blame the problem on stupid users, MS marketing, and unfair trade practices. Yet, they will never realize that MS never cried when they were behind, they just made a superior product and continue to make superior products. Whining about "The Man" keeping you down won't do anything about it.

Re:I haev a prediction (0)

Mojo Geek (28926) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757341)

When was MS behind? They went from nothing to being put on every PC that IBM manufactured. And the success of the PC at that point was due to Lotus 123, plus a couple of Wordprocessors, neither of which came from MS.

You can troll but you can't type. The "e" comes after the "v" in "have".

Re:I haev a prediction (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757358)

Your logic skills are sorely lacking. "When were they behind? ... They went from nothing."

Nothing anything. Therefore, they were behind.

Re:I haev a prediction (1)

vegardolsen (532938) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757385)

The reason why "everyone" is using windows now days is that microsoft have a "stable" GUI that is easy to understand. I have never tried a MAC, but i think those are better than PC's, and have a better OS (mac OSX). I would buy a mac if I could afford one... Anoher reason why Windows is superior is that most ppl don't know anything but Windows, they think that windows is the computer... 4 some reason Sorry the bad english.

here's a better prediction: (-1, Offtopic)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757252)

11) we make an operating system my mother-in-law can fFeel comfortable with loading.

still, not a pediction .. just a nice goal. but there you have it.

Re:here's a better prediction: (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757365)

I feel comfortable cumming in your mother-in-law.

"Loosening of Microsoft License"? (1)

Bob_Robertson (454888) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757253)

Ok, can anyone explain what this guy meant by loosening of Microsoft licensing?

As far as I can tell, one wave which Linux could ride is the tide of greater restrictions of the Microsoft license, like the XP configuration dependent "activation" concept. Swap your video card, loose your OS license!

Bob-

Re:"Loosening of Microsoft License"? (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757271)

I think the idea here is: linux is now at the point where it's ready to start moving quietly into the office-space; but without being able to seamlessly integrate into the Microsoft world, a linux box will always require a M$ box to get the mail and stuff like that.

Seamless Integration (5, Interesting)

Bob_Robertson (454888) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757315)

Back in 1997 running Samba, I didn't find any problem with 'seamless integration' for my two Windows game (mostly) machines to use the Linux box as server, or for the Linux box to work perfectly well along side of the other two as a peer machine.

If I may elaborate on your point, I think you mean "seamless MS-Office integration."

It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm. Elm doesn't read Netscape Mail folders (ok, maybe it does for someone who wants to take the time, but we're talking seamless here), that doesn't stop someone from using elm to "seamlessly" talk with someone in the same office using Netscape Mail.

MS-Office is a monolithic group-ware package that works (well? at all?) only with itself. As such, there never can be "seamless integration" because Microsoft doesn't want there to be.

Microsoft has won the perception battle with MS-Office. Many managers think that in order to be compatable with anyone else, they must use MS-Office, and that only runs on MS-Win.

If "we" are going to open the desktop market, "we" must change that perception. I am very, very glad to see OpenOffice, KDE-Office, and all the other suites being built. The Noosphere is being homesteaded at the office application layer, and I couldn't be happier.

BTW, my last two jobs have been in shops where the one and only reason they use MS-Win is because they are entrenched into using MS-Office.

Bob-

Re:Seamless Integration (-1)

Retarded_One (518093) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757387)

MS Exchange Client is an IMAP mail client. MS Exchange is a messaging system, which includes email services, among other things.

Nice attempt at trolling, but you:
A)Blaspheme a great movie by your Nick. May your gonads rot and fall off for that, fuckface.

B)You don't really know anything about IT.

Re:Seamless Integration (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757393)

It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm.

You're an idiot.

Predictions (5, Funny)

sydb (176695) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757254)

1. Tux will fly
To this day flightless like other penguins, Linux mascot Tux will shake the world by flying into the Eiffel Tower, prompting a renewal of the 'war on terrorism'.

2. Slashdot will be free of trolls
CmdrTaco will utter the regexp to end all regexps, and the lameness filter will finally work. Forever.

3. RMS installs Windows
RMS, leader of the Free World, will renounce GNU purity and follow the temptations of Microsoft by installing Windows 2.0. From the horses mouth: "Freeware like GNU just doesn't cut it when stacked up against real software made by real programmers with fat wallets. It's a moral choice really - the corporations deserve our dollars. Freedom shmeedom."

4. There is no prediction 4.

Re:Predictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757302)

RMS installs Windows

Actually RMS installed Windows just this year*!
I can't find the link though, hopefully someone has it.

* on his house

really? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757312)

Are you sure you're not thinking of Alan Cox? He (Cox) had been talking about his "windows installation" for the past couple weeks or something like that in his diary.

wishful thinking (2, Insightful)

javaaddikt (385701) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757257)

It doesn't matter how wonderful, secure, stable and efficient Linux is--it will never take over the desktop until there are gay little wizards and paper clips talking to you, and both major GUI's can come together and standardize or one of them dies (I'd vote for Gnome biting it). The problem with Linux (really *nix in general) is that there are just too many ways to do something which overwhelms new users. I don't think it is so much just not wanting to learn something new. Also a problem is that most average users are oblivious to MS problems--they just don't hear about them, or if they do they don't know how to patch or just don't care because they think security breaches will never happen to them. Unix types are power users. We want everything customized how we want it to a T. Most users just don't care. If they can get their email--great. Just "point and click."

As for business--I see continued growth. With the addition of things like stateful firewalls and journaling filesystems, more business are going to be installing it in more critical applications.

Re:wishful thinking (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757390)

I've got a news flash for you and all other naive Linux zealots: It does matter how wonderful, secure, stable, and efficient Linux is. And one more thing: it has to be usable and customer focused. Your elitist attitude is what dooms Linux to be nothing more than a toy OS for PC enthusiasts to jerk off to.

Re:wishful thinking (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757467)

The problem with Linux (really *nix in general) is that there are just too many ways to do something which overwhelms new users

You don't think that Windows has this problem? It does. Just take a look at cutting/copying text. After you highlight the text (with the mouse or with keyboard shortcuts) you can:

  • Click copy on the Edit Menu
  • Right click and select copy from the context menu (if the app has one)
  • Use a keyboard shortcut (if the app has them)
  • Drag and Drop the text (if both apps support D&D)

Or, lets copy a file to a floppy disk. Should we:

  • Hilight the file icon on the desktop and use send to on the context menu
  • Drag the file to the floppy disk icon
    • On the desktop
    • In My Computer
  • Open My Computer, open the floppy disk window, and drag the file icon from the desktop to the floppy disk window.
  • Copy the file at the DOS prompt

Would you care to try again?

haha (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757258)

3rd post, im tha linux pimp... 3rd on a 56k is good

number 6 (3, Interesting)

banky (9941) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757259)

I think you'll see this happen more than once, in some form or fashion; someone will kick W2k or XP out of the datacenter, and it'll be a high-profile linux win.

BUT: I don't see it as a linux win. It'll be a Red Hat win, or an IBM win (or Suse, or Debian, whatever, I'm not playing favorites here). Linux will not, per se, win the day. The services and "value adds" and all that crap will be what gets written about; the pundits (read: ZDNet) will talk about how so-and-so (Red Hat, IBM, whomever) sent in armies of consultants, promised to tailor things to their hardware, etc etc. In other words they'll downplay Linux.

It'll be a win, but everyone (most of all MS) will try to convince the world that it was a different game.

Re:number 6 (3, Insightful)

thesolo (131008) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757306)

BUT: I don't see it as a linux win. It'll be a Red Hat win

Would that really be so bad though? If you give Red Hat the market share that MS has right now, do you really think they would be as bad as MS?? The code is still open, and you are welcome to do whatever you want with it. IMHO, Linux is Linux is Linux, regardless of what company manages to push it out.

Number 6: I'm not a number, I am a FREE MAN! (2, Insightful)

Bob_Robertson (454888) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757332)

f you give Red Hat the market share that MS has right now, do you really think they would be as bad as MS??

Of course! Power corrupts!

Bob-

Re:number 6 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757381)


Linux is Linux is Linux, regardless of what company manages to push it out.


I'm glad you feel that way. Because the Ku Klux Klan just announced the release of "White Hood Linux." Also, from Afghanistan comes "Osoma Bin Linux."

Hmm... I love these prediction lists (5, Funny)

glwtta (532858) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757263)

Computers will become faster!

And will have more RAM!

Linux will continue to develop!

etc... What would we do without this sage guidance?

My prediction... (1)

Decimal (154606) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757319)

In the future, Linux may have as few as 1,000 vacuum tubes will weigh only 1.5 tons.

Oh come on (4, Interesting)

jonnythan (79727) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757265)

I really don't think that Microsoft discontinuing support for old versions of Windows will make anyone switch to Linux.

When was the last time you called up MS for tech support for Windows? Most people just don't care, or are even aware MS will provide any tech support at all.

I don't anticipate a large exodus to Linux when MS stops providing support. There's no reason at all to think that people will move to and learn a new *operating system* that doesn't provide them anything new over Windows 98 with no official support.

Everyone has been predicting that Linux will explode any minute now for *years*. This won't make it happen any sooner. Fact is, Linux doesn't provide anything over Windows for the vast majority of people, and MS has massive marketing muscle. Linux isn't poised to overcome that at all. Linux will need a ton of marketing money, and do something WINDOWS DOESN'T.

As much as people make fun of MS never innovating anything, everything I see in Linux development is meant to bring its functionality in line with Windows. If I see anything in Linux that enables me to do more than Windows, and do it with more stability (sorry, in my experience, Linux with X gives a much more unstable environment than 2k or XP), I'll give it another try.

For the moment, for me, it's XP on me desktop, 2k on my laptop, and OpenBSD on my server.

Re:Oh come on (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757285)

interestingly, i know quite a fFew people who care a lot about support. unfortunately, the conversation goes like this:

"no more support fFor win95? now what?"
"well, you could buy a new license fFor X thousand dollars, with fFull support"
"no way! what else?"
"you can get linux fFor fFree."
"great what support do i get then?"
"uhm .. well ...."
(a moment of silence)
"ok, microsoft it is."

[OT] fF (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757317)

What's the deal with your "fF"s? Your other posts seem to have this "problem" too. Is it your keyboard, or some sort of substance abuse problem?

Re:[OT] fF (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757356)

This is how you say "look at me, I'm different", when you're a loser.

Re:Oh come on (3, Insightful)

cha0sadddddddd (323712) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757301)

not just support, no more directx updates,no more security patches, no more anything from ms.

Re:Oh come on (2, Insightful)

Zillatron (415756) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757336)

I really don't think that Microsoft discontinuing support for old versions of Windows will make anyone switch to Linux.

When was the last time you called up MS for tech support for Windows? Most people just don't care, or are even aware MS will provide any tech support at all.

The point is not what Microsoft will do. They never did do support for the OEM versions of Win95 I owned. That is something they left for the vendors. (a note to those of you that buy the OEM versions from your local computer shop: You are the only support you have. Study well.)

What is far more significant to me is that now that Win95 is an unsupported product, no one else feels the urge to make anything work under it. For me, no problem; I've moved on. However, I've spruced up and passed on old Windows boxes to a couple of my relatives. The non-profit for whom I do tech support is running on a donated Win95 box. What are these people going to do when they can't use functional anti-virus software when connecting to the internet? What happens when they can't install the new version of some software to read a document (and the StarOffice import filter doesn't yet cut it)?

These people will be left out in the cold, and I don't see myself recommending they give uncle Bill $99 for an "upgrade" just to be supported for another 15 months. Linux has been and is difficult for someone who is not interested in computers to install. It is getting better and I'm learning more myself. Windows is getting harder to use as it becomes obvious that the software has a time limit on it even without a pre-defined end to the license.

As these two things cross you can bet your bottom dollar I will migrate the dozen people I now support to a better, open platform.

Re:Oh come on (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757379)

What are these people going to do when they can't use functional anti-virus software when connecting to the internet? What happens when they can't install the new version of some software to read a document (and the StarOffice import filter doesn't yet cut it)?

If the StarOffice filter doesn't cut it, upgrading to linux ain't gonna help. ;) In any case, I'd question the performance of any of the Linux desktop environments and apps on a Win95-class machine...

Re:Oh come on (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757403)

"What are these people going to do when they can't use functional anti-virus software when connecting to the internet"

I dunno, maybe actually pay for something instead of freeloading? I'm sure that's an unheard of concept, but you should try it sometime. Its very rewarding!

Re:Oh come on (1)

travail_jgd (80602) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757496)

I really don't think that Microsoft discontinuing support for old versions of Windows will make anyone switch to Linux.

That won't make people switch. The lack of automated support -- the "Windows Update" feature -- will drive a few people to upgrade or switch. What's going to be the acid test are the new features added to Windows and the current crop of users are left out in the cold. Windows 95 users can't play the new Everquest supplement because it's not supported by the DirectX 8.1 upgrade. For an Evercrack addict, that's a good reason to buy 98SE, ME, or XP.

Also, I could be thinking of something else, but doesn't XP have a 3-year license? If so, starting around Q42004 people are going to have the option of paying again, pirating, or choosing a "free" OS. If the Linux interface keeps improving, and the stability of legacy Windows apps through Wine/Lindows increases, then Linux will be in a perfect position to gain market share.

I've got 98SE on both my home machines (a 233mhz and an 833mhz), and the "upgrade shutoff" is a concern to me. The older one is going to be given to my parents or in-laws in 6-12 months, requiring a reformat and reinstall -- I won't be able to download patches from MS at that point. I tried Redhat 7.2 (my first Linux install), but it fails the "mom test" miserably at this point. :(

Doubling workstation/desktop marketshare (2)

tcc (140386) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757266)

from 0.24% to 0.48% :)

Seriously, this may sound funny, but heck, if amiga would have 0.05% TODAY it would mean more machines out there then all of the machines put together back in the early 90s.

Even 0.1% of the market IS a market, I'm not in marketting but with the number of computers out there, if you can create some killer app for that 0.1%, I'm sure you can get under the spot light pretty easily.

Re:Doubling workstation/desktop marketshare (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757353)

if you can create some killer app for that 0.1%, I'm sure you can get under the spot light pretty easily.

It's called bash. Everything else is done much, much better under windows; but cmd.exe still sucks. Yep, Linux is good for bash.

My prediction (1)

PepsiProgrammer (545828) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757267)

Microsoft will try to find some way to stop the rollout of linux on PS2's as this could potentially be one of the biggest breaks linux could have as a home user OS.

Re:My prediction (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757313)

they're already doing this. or hadnt you heard of the Xbox?

Theo humour? (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757270)

Re #9 "Theo de Raadt..."

I realize this is a poor attempt at humour, but frankly I'll trust Theo's coding over Linus any day.

If Theo shrinkwrapped a piece of corn-filled shit and said It Was Good, I'd buy it. Linus' kernel fuckup releases are just an embarassment.

OPS general ignorance (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757280)

Having worked with a number of businesses before, I know that upgrading to Windows XP will come automatically to 99% of the general population. I used to work for a company whos programs worked under DOS/Win96/Win98. We'd get calls from companies that used our software and would say "I just upgraded to Windows 2000 and now your software doesn't work." That's right. I'd always ask, what else are you using the system for? "Nothing, just your stuff." Well, then, why are you upgrading to an uncompatible system? Time and again, it was the same story. In another year, it'll be the same again. Users calling in to say their programs won't run under Windows XP. So why upgrade? Their dealer told them to. They'd rather upgrade to a new $10,000 system then stay with something that worked. Also, 99% haven't even heard of Linux and the people I mention it to refuse to switch over (instead of getting a newer Windows version)because they don't want to re-learn their system. In short, Linux has a long, uphill road to walk before challenging Microsoft. People just aren't informed.

Yeah, right (4, Flamebait)

W2k (540424) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757283)

This should be under "It's funny. Laugh", not "Linux Business".

Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace...

Yeah, right. TheRegister might think Mandrake is easier than Windows XP to install, but actually running even this the most simplified of Linuxes is still beyond the average joe sixpack user. This is the only thing really keeping Linux from desktops at the moment - well, that and hardware/software compatibility - but I don't think it's going away any time soon.

The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided ...

If both sides agree on it, why would the judge toss it out? As for the hold-out states, more of them will drop off once the settlement goes through and the ones that remain will be stuck with Microsoft for another year or so, eventually having a very limited impact.

A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely ...

This is just hilarious. Firstly, I doubt that any "three-letter intelligence agency" (there aren't that many) are running XP at this point, or are planning to start doing so. If they're running Windows at all, they'll be on 2000, which is getting pretty secure now that it's been out for a while.

At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms ...

This is quite likely, actually; as Linux becomes more usable and more well-known to big businesses looking to save money/improve security, some companies will undoubably decide to move. Others will decide that Linux/Mac/whatever they were on before wasn't right for them, and switch to Linux. Stuff like that happens all the time. I am thinking Joe was running low on ideas at this point :)

AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux ...

Yeah, sure. And Tux the Penguin will be replaced by Joe the Wannabe Journalist.

(I don't have a sig)

Re:Yeah, right (1)

tunah (530328) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757363)

Others will decide that Linux/Mac/whatever they were on before wasn't right for them, and switch to Linux.

If there's one thing more newsworthy than guesses about computers, it's companies switching from Linux to Linux.

Re:Yeah, right (1)

biohazard99 (114288) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757377)

Linux does need support from the AOL community. we are in a situation of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Few readers of /. are fans of the AOL/Netscape/TimeWarner megacorp, but AOL does have an ungodly number of POP's all acrosss the US, Canada, Japan, and Europe as I understand it. It is the least common denomiator for an internet connection for most of the world, and therefore, the stronger a competitor that AOL remains, that is less mindshare for MS. And perhaps, as aol picks up a slightly more technically savy audience the signal to noise out of there will increase.

Re:Yeah, right (3, Funny)

Darth Paul (447243) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757380)

A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely ...

MSN?

Oh, wait. Intelligence, you said ... :)

Re:Yeah, right (1)

Benley (102665) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757399)

AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux ...

Yeah, sure. And Tux the Penguin will be replaced by Joe the Wannabe Journalist.


Surprise, it's already happened. I have *seen* an AOL client running on Linux, on *my* system. It existed at least a year ago, though it's not been released publicly. I'd love to still have it, but it's one of the things I lost in a disk crash a few months back.

Come to think about it, there may have even been a slashdot story about it - I'll see if I can dig it up.

This is NOT a troll... (4, Insightful)

Spackler (223562) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757286)

This is almost the same article I read in 1995! Back then, I was involved in a newsgroup discussion on usability for Linux on the desktop. Most of the predictions, and complaints from back in the day are still there. Sure, there has been polish added, and some really cool features. The kernel has added lots of new features, but the only interface I have seen that came close to a real desktop has been on a freaking Mac (and I HATE macs). At some point in the future, a group will get together and put together an opensource desktop that my wife could use, and be happy with. After 6 and a half years, I won't hold my breath. Don't get me wrong, I'm already running the 2.4.17 kernel on my Thinkpad. I just wonder if predictions like "Linux desktop will appear in public places" are realistic when it is really an OS for nerds, and will continue to stay that way until a real organized effort takes place to bring about a simple desktop.

Flame answer 1: Yes, Gnome and KDE are great, but they are great for geeks, not moms. Maybe end the political crap and have them get together for a cookout at my house to bury the hatchet and take the best code from both to make KDGnome? That would kick some ass!

Flame answer 2: Because Macs are great for destop publishing, but that is not what I need to do. (and yes, I know it's BSD, and not Linux)

Flame answer 3: Sorry Linus. You have done great things here, and I have great admiration for your work. I know you are not competing with MS here. I would just like to see Linux knock the head off of Bill's empire. It get's predicted every year.

Flame answer 4: I know, I know, I have all the source code. I should write it myself, right? Well I suck at programming C, and I am man enough to admit that I could not write production level code for a project like that.

Spackler

Re:This is NOT a troll... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757513)

Flame answer 1: Yes, Gnome and KDE are great, but they are great for geeks, not moms. Maybe end the political crap and have them get together for a cookout at my house to bury the hatchet and take the best code from both to make KDGnome? That would kick some ass!



Frankly, I say scrap 'em both and get something totally revolutionary. KDE, for example, tries to 'win' users over to Linux by being a clone of the Microsoft desktop. The problem is - the Microsoft desktop isn't very much help for 'moms' either. ;) My mom, for example, utterly despises it. Gnome, well, it's Gnome. It's the same old thing in a prettier package.



Now for my anti-flame: Yeah, I realize people work hard on KDE and Gnome. I'm sure people enjoy using KDE and Gnome as well. I'm simply pointing out that the desktop world isn't evolving, and it should be - maybe *we* can change this, because we know Microsoft won't. :)



Flame answer 2: Because Macs are great for destop publishing, but that is not what I need to do. (and yes, I know it's BSD, and not Linux)



You mean you use the right tool for the right job? You crazy, crazy person. :)



Flame answer 3: Sorry Linus. You have done great things here, and I have great admiration for your work. I know you are not competing with MS here. I would just like to see Linux knock the head off of Bill's empire. It get's predicted every year.



Send Linus some beer. I hear he drinks Guinness. On second thought, send it to me, and I'll, be, umm, sure he, erm, gets it.



Flame answer 4: I know, I know, I have all the source code. I should write it myself, right? Well I suck at programming C, and I am man enough to admit that I could not write production level code for a project like that.



I think that's one of the major problems with the community - we've either got, "Man, Linux is the right tool for EVERYTHING!" zealots, or the, "If you don't like it, you can do it yourself." zealots.



This is the thing, many good programmers suck at sound and graphic work. Many good sound and graphic guys can't balance their checkbook, let alone organize a huge project. The truth is, there's something *everyone* can do for Open Source projects - you just need to look for a project that has open minded and non-egotistical people.

Site is slashdotted,so here's the guts of it: (2, Redundant)

thesolo (131008) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757290)

  1. Linux business sector will emerge from slump

    Red Hat will continue to increase market share, sales and profits, leading the ragtag band of open source survivors out of the wilderness of the recession to the land of black bottom lines.

  2. Linux desktop will appear in public places

    The Linux desktop will achieve a measurable market share on consumer machines and an even larger share of desktops for business and government. The growth will be fueled by both continuing refinement and improvement of the desktop, the growing dissatisfaction with Windows performance, security, and pricing, and the easing of Microsoft licensing restrictions.

  3. Linux preloads will follow suit

    Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace as Microsoft ever so slightly begins to loosen its death-grip on the preload marketplace.

  4. Landmark antitrust case will drag on

    The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided and the court will compromise between the demands of the holdout states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually prevent them from continuing many of their illegal business practices.

  5. U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed

    A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.

  6. Microsoft will be expelled, Linux will be installed

    At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms to an interoperable mix of Unix, Mac and Linux platforms.

  7. Linux in prime time slot

    TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey, it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in November, some say as the result of losing touch with their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the lineup.

  8. You have (secure) mail

    AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux. This event will be marked by both howls of protest and celebration. Command-line interface (CLI) diehards will proclaim it to be the death of Linux. Most will simply acknowledge its growing popularity.

  9. Darker Image PR firm to debut

    Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors have it that the dynamic trio is already in discussions with Redmond about championing the Free Software Foundation.

  10. The revolution will continue as scheduled

    Just like last year, my final prediction drives home a simple point. Whether any of the previous predictions come true or not, it's going to be another banner year for GNU/Linux. It's popularity in the server, desktop, and embedded spaces will continue to grow.

Re:Site is slashdotted,so here's the guts of it: (2)

Black Parrot (19622) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757449)


> 5. U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed

> A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.

Not quite the same thing, but this interesting note appeared in Risks Digest 21.83 (available on newsgroup comp.risks) -

Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2001 00:59:00 +0000
From: "michael e. goldsby"
Subject: Wiretapping equipment compromised: FBI, CALEA

A recent series of four newscasts on the Fox Network alleged that
U. S. telephone call records have been falling into the hands of
international organized crime. Call records allow traffic analysis but do
not disclose the contents of the conversations.

However, the newscasts further alleged that the equipment used by the FBI to
do the wiretaps authorized by the CALEA legislation (1994) has been
compromised. It is said to contain back doors that allow unauthorized
persons to obtain access to the contents of telephone conversations. The
back doors were not put there by the FBI and are not under their control.

Partial transcripts of the newscasts are available at
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,40684,00.html
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,40747,00.html
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,40824,00.html
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,40981,00.html

The second newscast cites an example of a 1997 Los Angeles drug case in
which access to telephone call records was used to "completely compromise
the communications of the FBI, the Secret Service, the DEO [sic] and the
LAPD."
Alas, the links now say "this story has been removed". Insert your favorite conspiracy theory as required.

Da Mods (4, Funny)

Snowfox (34467) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757291)

"YEAH! Go Linux! Windows sucks!!! eat my r3d hat, M1CR0$OFT!!!"
SlashPh3ar +1 Insightful! bojoH4X0R +1 Funny! eliteboss +1 Informative!

"Though it's hard to beat Visual Studio for rapid application development."
l33t0r -1 Troll! bsdnut -1 Flamebait! bojoH4X0R_2 -1 Overrated!

"Except that it constrains you with heavy licensing for the end user."
h4ckerrocket +1 baaaaah! linuxd3wd +1 InMyLittleWorld!

"Which probably doesn't matter, since 90%+ of your customers already have Windows installed."
supercod-R -1 NotMyBag! CmdrTac0 -1 Heretic! superHaK -1 Blasphemy! C0deG0d -1 KarmaTorch!

Sorry about that. Sit on my hands, no more rum before posting.

Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (3, Interesting)

ender81b (520454) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757292)

Is it just me or is he (and everybody else) prediciting that linux will become a desktop os because someday (maybe) it just might come true and they don't want to miss it.
Linux is no closer to being a user-friendly, capable desktop app than it had been in the last 3 years. Try telling the 12 o'clock flashers about compiling a kernel and mounting hard drives and they will give you the "blank stare of doom".
In truth, MacOS X is what Linux needs to become if it ever wants to succed as a desktop OS for the average joe (i.e good apps, nice interface, seemless hardware support, and a good unix command line just in case).

Re:Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757299)

In truth, MacOS X is what Linux needs to become if it ever wants to succed as a desktop

Could not agree more with this one.

Re:Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757327)

well of course. OS X is the fFirst successfull community developed linux. too bad it's not linux, and it's not community based.

(is there any way to turn off all those extraneous animations and light effects in that thing, tho? the bells and whistles are cool fFor about 2 minutes. then you realize you've got to work on this thing everyday)

Re:Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757443)

i believe the skill level required fFor setting up a windows machine is the same skill level as that fFo rsetting up a windows machine. the reason is this: the 12 o'clock fFlashers didnt setup their windows, either. they went to the store, bought a PC - under the heading of "Computer System" - and never touched an install disk. so it's reasonable to assume that an average joe wouldnt need to know about 'compiling the kernel'.

taking that into consideration, then: Yes, the linux distributions have become a great deal more fFriendly. maybe not enough, but

if you give a person an order fFor both a windows machine and a linux machine -- if the order fForm avoided technical jargon and just asked things like "DVD package?" "extra fFonts?" the end user would be able to maneuver easily either way.

the responisibility then fFalls on the re-seller to pick and choose the best packages, and eliminate all confusing options. (this is what resellers do all the time, of course. which is why i know if i buy a PC at my store down the road, it will come woth adaptec software and the same case and power-source as anyone else.) so, the reseller picks KDE/gnome/woteva, makes that the default GUI in all sysytem they sell, and thats that.

in this way, yes, it becomes a lot easier fFor the end user to install a new linux system in their house/office.

Re:Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757471)

I'm sure you've heard the observation: the reason so-and-so CDs dont sell in the stores is because no one plays them on the radio. the idea here is that people only buy what is shoveled their way. so, keeping this in mind, people will probably buy whatever operating system is shoveled their way. if no-one offers linux, no-one buys linux.

the same principle amd has been fFighting: resellers are being told, by intel, not to push amd. in many cases, i'm told, if a store sells zero units of amd processors in a month, then intel gives them a kickback on the sales. so resellers dont point out to buyers that they even have a choice, so they don't fFish fFor it.

well, same idea with linux. when people start asking, or people start pushing, then it will start seeing some acceptance.

my 10 predictions (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757298)

10. John Jameson will finally become the first Linux user ever to go out on a date with a female.
9. The percentage of Linux users who take baths regularly will double to 5%.
8. Communist Party membership cards will be handed out with every Red Hat CD.
7. Gnome and KDE will still suck.
6. StarOffice will still suck, but Linux bigots will continue to insist that it is a valid alternative to MS Word.
5. MS will continue to be spelled M$ by Linux users. Meanwhile, while you are all posting and playing video games, Bill Gates will make another ten billion dollars.
4. VA Linux(or whatever the company is called now) will go bankrupt.
3. RMS will claim that he invented the internet.
2. Linus will change his name to Windus.
1. "My name is Bill Gates, and I pronounce Linux as Microsoft Lindows"

Just add water (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757311)

10:53 EST , instant /.'ed site just add geek pop culture reference and post.

Problem with Number 8: (3, Interesting)

thesolo (131008) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757325)

AOL won't make any significant number of people move from Windows to Linux. 99% of the people on AOL are there because they don't know a lot about computers, and they don't care to. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but how many average AOL users could you see understanding "./configure, make, make install"?

Linux is still very much a geek OS, and since most geeks want broadband or real PPP dialup, I wouldn't see AOL making a huge dent if they did release software for Linux.

What can you predict about this? (4, Interesting)

Snowfox (34467) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757330)

More and more sites are relying on embedded closed-source media players which don't work and play well with most free-as-in-speech browsers. It's tough to get a proper feed from many of the major news sites anymore.

Similarly, a surprising number of online banking services, auction houses, etc are putting Windows-centric code on their sites, limiting site usability for many potential customers.

I'm looking forward to seeing if there's going to be a backlash against that in the coming year. When sites realize that a good chunk of users are being cut off, could we see "platform agnostic" and "Linux-friendly" become marketable buzzwords, causing sites to leap on the bandwagon and to start performing real Linux usability testing?

And if "Linux-friendly" logos, icons and similar start to appear on sites, could the alternative operating systems enjoy even more visibility as a result?

My Take (1)

CtrlPhreak (226872) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757331)

Here's my personal take on the predictions take it as you will, IANAEOTF (I Am Not An Expert On The Future)

1) Buisness will grow, it isn't hard to figure that buisness will move into the black. All the rest will fail and we're left with only the succesful corperations. Duh.

2) I see it happening slightly, although it feels that he is stating that linux will become noticable everywhere and with too much optomism. What's with "measurable market share"? isn't 0.25% measured?

3) To say that linux will be preloaded on future machines when it's been tried and failed miserably in the past years is still too optomistic. At the moment M$ has a stranglehold on that market and it's just not profitable enough to preload. Too much hassle at this moment to accomidate 0.25% of the market. Even considering that number faulty, it's still just not quite enough.

4) It just drags on and on.

5) He's just reaching for this one. I don't see microsoft products being banned compleatly. I doubt they use XP for high level stuff anyway. Remember the high security distro the NSA (I think it was the NSA) is working on? They trust in unix and it's clones just like most backend stuff. Enen M$ uses BSD for hotmail.

6) Again, a complete and utter ban of M$? Unlikly. I can see buisness warming up to linux and other unix clones for workstations and alowing employees to choose, rather than a lot of these employees secretly using linux on a separate partition from the usual windows or without support from the company.

7) doubtful with their monetary constraints and lack of market penetration. Do you get tech TV? I don't and nobody I know gets it without a satilite. If you don't reach enough people, and only about 0.25% of those people are interested, then your showw quickly bites the dust.

8) I can see this happening actually. Don't whine and complain, it's a necisary evil to get more market share.

9) Wtf? Someone please explain this to me.

10) And finally, the easiest one. Everything progresses more. It grows and more people find out and learn about linux and other unix clones. Viva la revolution.

I appologize for the repetition of the 0.25% number. It's just a number that represents the actual market share, whatever that is in reality.

hmm....i truly like this list better (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757333)

this is more clever and makes more sense. It can be found here [thitcho.com] .

Re:hmm....i truly like this list better (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757457)

that site is good

What will actually happen (3, Interesting)

ellem (147712) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757343)

Nothing will change:

Linux will improve. No one will care --
A third desktop will emerge and really confuse everything (KDE and Gnome being the other two .. I know there's more)

OSX will barely maintain Apple's market share and everyone will agree that it is the best OS ever.

Windows 10wnU will be released. Despite massive security flaws and a wicked licensing scheme will continue to rulle the desktops.

2. Linux desktop will appear in public places (2, Interesting)

kubota (200393) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757345)

This will be true only in ISO-8859-1 [terena.nl] (or ISO-8859-15 with Euro) world or at least 8bit simple encodings world.

For other billions of people (Chinese, Indian, Arab, and so on), Linux desktop (with XFree86, GNOME, and KDE) is far from usable for average people.

In other words, there are still remaining large market for such billions of people.

Last one... (1)

tunah (530328) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757348)

And prediction number 11: Pigs will fly.

Okay, okay, I'm done trolling, I'll go read it now.

My Linux Predictions for 2002 (1)

amccall (24406) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757349)

The site appears fairly slashdoted soooo:

1. Another 2.4.x kernel will be released with a bug, causing a slashdot story and a flamewar to start on how their isn't enough QA of linux distros.

2. A new stable series of debian will be released/frozen. Immediately after a new stable version of QT and/or GNOME will be released that will not be included. Corel will go bankrupt, and the remains of wordperfect for Linux and other ports will go the way of the dodo. Another company will contract/purchase these products, but will never actually release a product. Debian users, will apt-get dist-update to unstable again, lying about staying with the new stable because it's very decent.

3. Kernel 2.6.0 will be promised to be out in the summer, but in reality, will not hit prerelease stages until December.

4. My friends and I's Linux distribution will finally be released to a massive whoopdie-do from the linux community. Along with this distribution, another 3 distributions will be released and flop.

5. RedHat will finally perfect the 7.x series, only to release a new, and extremely buggy 8.x.

6. Mandrake will inexplicably move to Mandrake 9.x or even Mandrake X in an effort to continue the one-upping versioning of RedHat.

7. ATI will release binary only Linux drivers, but an effort to create an open source Radeon driver will continue. People will claim to use the opensource driver, while really using the binary driver, and making fun of nVidia's proprietary only products.

8. A twisted tape featuring a cartoon Linus and Bill Gates fighting will circulate the internet. The end of this tape will feature Gates and Linus uniting to destroy the Evil clown Steve Balmer, who enters the video shooting, "Windows might give you herpes, but the Linux cancer is fatal".

9. Corel will go bankrupt, and the remains of wordperfect for Linux and other ports will go the way of the dodo. Another company will contract/purchase these products, but will never actually release a product.

10. Borland will release C++ Builder for Linux. As Delphi and C++ shareware apps for Linux are released Linux users will make statements about trash apps. Some will move to *BSD, others will become debian users. Many Mandrake and RedHat users will buy these, say they are decent, but never really use them.

And as a bonus: Linux will move from 0.25%+ total desktop usage to 1.25%. :)

(Yes, I am lame.)

Re:My Linux Predictions for 2002 (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757371)

You may be lame, but those are the best predictions I've yet to hear....

my wife's thoughts: (0)

skotte (262100) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757355)

I just asked my signifigant other her thoughts on the topic of "linux predictions fFor 2002". her answer:

Better than sex.

man! i'm either good at brainwashing people, or i'm just awful in bed!!!

Possible Winmodem Support (1)

Renraku (518261) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757364)

Every Linux user that doesn't feel like spending money on a real modem would love to see winmodem support under Linux. There isn't any reason why it can't be done. In fact, the term 'winmodem' is misleading. They're just software-driven modems. I, for one, would use Linux much more if they supported my Rockwell HCF chipsert modem in my PC and my ESS something or another in my laptop.

One prediction to rule them all. (4, Insightful)

Darth Paul (447243) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757368)

I say...

1. Business as usual. Linux will continue slowly replace Unix servers. Windows will continue to sit on the desktop. Talk of a mainstream linux desktop will continue for several more years.

Under the covers (4, Funny)

SomeOtherGuy (179082) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757370)

1. More samba shares on the local networks at work as Comm Tech managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.

2. More IIS web servers replaced with Linux and apache as Web Group managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.

3. More Tomcat implementations as said managers save money on the Weblogic license dollars.

4. More failed companies who think they can "cash in" on this Linux thing....

5. The people that started in the garages and basements....(went to work for a few months at various linux startups and got bitter when the stock dipped below a dollar...and they got layed off...) --> will return to the garages and basements...God bless them.

6, VA decides that the only way to pay the /. bandwidth bills is to replace all content with one great big banner add on /. .... and when that does not work they will be bought out by x10.com -- and www.slashdot.org will resolve to 10 popup windows for mini cams.

7. The end of world peace.

Lay Off! (0)

Mojo Geek (28926) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757374)

<rant>

I've been trying for half an hour to read Joe Barr's article. I can't because it's Slashdotted. He's a Texan over in the Austin/San Antonio area. I'm a Texan here in Houston and native in that I grew up around Tyler, Tx. Therefore unless you are a Texan I am more deserving of you and you should BACK OFF so I can read the article.

Thank you for your consideration.

</rant>

Re:Lay Off! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#2757423)

You know, cowboy, I'd like to hop on your "saddle" and "ride" you till the cows cum home.

Yeehaw!

AOL (1)

Yakman (22964) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757384)

How about instead of AOL producing a client for Linux they produce an "AOLinux" (No, not Adults Only!) distro which is basically locked down and can be used to connect only to AOL and provides all the AOL client functionality.

Maybe they wouldn't even give the user root access to their system so they can't fiddle with anything.

Oooh.. a better idea, a bootable CD with the AOLinux distro that sotres user config stuff on a Windows partition so when the user wants to use the internet they stick the CD in the drive and they reboot. The first time they put in their AOL password etc and the other times it just automatically dials up when the OS boots. They wouldn't have to worry about some redneck installing stupid shit on his computer that'd break AOL because the OS would be locked down.

Maybe i've just had not enough sleep.

AOL + Linux? (1)

Renraku (518261) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757407)

A new generation of script kiddies will be born. They might know how to stumble their way through the installation of a popular distro of Linux, but they can't surf without their prescious AOL. This generation will not be remembered, as they'll just get frustrated trying to find drivers for their eMachine and reinstall Windows.

Real Predictions, anyone ? (1)

Gis_Sat_Hack (101484) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757434)

In mid 2004 the standard 'hard drive' from the local elCheapo discount should be approx 1 TB (terrabyte).
What kind of GFLOPS are we expecting at K-mart ?
Network speeds ?
& what kind of apps will be running 'standard' on these boxes / wristwatches ?

I was right! (2)

IGnatius T Foobar (4328) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757445)

Back in December 2000, I made a prediction that in December 2001, trade rag writers would be publishing articles making predictions for 2002. Looks like I was right. Damn I'm good!

That's a tough one! (2)

G-funk (22712) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757455)

"Should I keep using windows98, even though microsoft doesn't support it any more, or should I switch to this lie-nucks thing that I don't understand, nobody supports it, and bob's son down the street can't fix for me?"

Hmmmm

Desktop adoption. (4, Insightful)

Bobzibub (20561) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757465)

My wife now finds it easier to use my Linux box to:
-check web mail
-read and print doc/xls files
-surf w/o crashing browser
-use dial-up
-other business stuff.
...rather than boot up her NT box to do the same.

Now with software we use (Moz/StarOffice/KDE) being so nice, stable, & useful, the desktop is at last becoming a viable alternative for Windoze users--with just a little prompting.

To me, the interoperability with Word/Excel/Exchange is the critical thing for businesses. In 2000, this clearly did not work well at all. I think 2002 will indeed herald the year that linux will be occationally adopted as an alternative in corporate environments. Reading/printing these file formats (and protocols) is now *finally* reliable. Ximian's Exchange connector completes it for most businesses.

I don't think that the desktop not being adopted in large numbers this year was because IT managers didn't want to do it, it was because they couldn't do it.
Now they can.

Joe Barr's Track Record for 2001 (5, Informative)

Gleef (86) | more than 12 years ago | (#2757524)

Joe Barr did a similar article for 2001 [linuxworld.com] . Here's how he did:

1. Linux Kernel 2.4 will be released, and will trounce Windows in the benchmarks
Half right. 2.4.0 was released, performance was good, but not as good as it could have been. It's gotten better since. Nobody that I know of has done comprehensive benchmarking. I'll give this one a half point.

2. MS Findings of Law overturned, Findings of Fact stand. Ordered back to lower court. DOJ loses zeal for case
Almost perfect. The Conclusions of Law stood, but the Final Judgement was overturned. Everything else was on the nose. I'll give this one a full point.

3. Consolidation and attrition of Linux companies. Fewer distributions. RedHat & VA merge. SuSE & Atipa merge.
Didn't happen. There were some mergers, but no big ones. There was much attrition, but primarily on the fringes of the Linux world, the rest of the computer industry was much harder hit attrition-wise. There are more distributions than ever. There are no superdistributions, in fact, I'd say more people realize today that RedHat != Linux than a year ago. No points.

4. KDE and GNOME continue as separate projects.
Easy point.

5. Linus stops heavy kernel hacking, focuses on community leadership.
You've got to be joking. No points.

6. One of the big five computer retailers offers a Linux boot (or dual boot) for a retail desktop machine.
Nope, didn't happen.

7. Widespread government desktop adoption of Linux
Nope, didn't happen. More servers tho.

8. Bruce Perens shakes up HP.
If it happened, it was completely behind the scenes. From out here, it looks like Compaq's pleading to be eaten had much more effect on HP's management than Bruce did. He has had some effect, and he's still there, so there's always next year. No point.

9. Linux stocks will thrive.
Ha. Hahahaha [lwn.net] . Hahahahahaha. Seriously, they didn't do badly compared to the rest of the tech stocks, but I would hardly call it "thriving". No point.

10. Another great year for Linux
Easy point.

So, last year, he got three and a half out of ten. One was a complete giveaway (#10), and most people would say #4 was a giveaway too. Not the most impressive set of predictions.
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