10 Linux Predictions For 2002 372
Weedstock writes: "In an article on LinuxWorld, Joe Barr is once again making 10 predictions about the success of Linux for the new year." The first of many sets of predictions for 2002, no doubt. And some guy named "Robin" or "Roblimo" or something like that wrote about Linux in 2003 for Newsforge.
Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... ? (Score:5, Insightful)
As far as I can tell, item #4 has nothing to do with Linux directly. Unless of course you believe it's a matter of MS vs. Linux and that's it.
Methinks Linux is about creating a good operating system, not about killing Microsoft. Or did I miss something?
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:...have nothing to do with Linux... SAY WHAT? (Score:3, Interesting)
I was pretty sure that ALL of them had to do with LINUX, even if not directly...
#'s 1,2,3,6,7,8 and 10 are directly about LINUX
and #'s 4, 5 and 9 are about the competitive PC/ MS v LINUX marketplace...
though i suppose that you could argue that even though number 9, the Darker Image is about taking a shot at MS too, it's principally a good natured poke at some of the less "user friendly" members of our community....
after all guys, it IS LINUX WORLD magazine....
IMHO, i'd say that #'s 2,3 and 7 are serious blue sky
#'s 1,6 and 8 are mulligans
and that 4 and 7 are karma bets
9's a gag and
10 is probably the most accurate of them all
BTW, Joe, stay away from Theo for a while
Re:...have nothing to do with Linux... SAY WHAT? (Score:5, Interesting)
I've seen screenshots of an official (and not even alpha quality) official AOL client for Linux.
Given AOHell's recent decision to join the Liberty Alliance, could it be that AOL's partnership with Sun (as in Sun is the center of the Netscape iPlanet world now) has addicted AOL-TW to the need for open standards???
Re:...have nothing to do with Linux... SAY WHAT? (Score:2)
And the client can be removed from that midori linux install and ran on a regular linux install.
it's just that anyone with those abilities dont WANT to run an AOL client.
Re:...have nothing to do with Linux... SAY WHAT? (Score:2, Interesting)
Whether it will ever be released as a seperate client is highly doubtful in my mind, think of the support retraining costs AOL would have to justify.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
I agree. Anyone got the GPS coordinates for Bill's office? :-)
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:3, Insightful)
Not at all. The best doesn't always succeed. Consider BetaMax versus VHS.
The original poster made an excellent point. I would rather be *for* something than *against* something. Somewhere the Linux community took a wrong turn and started measuring Linux according to the Microsoft yardstick. This is wrong. As long as the Microsoft yardstick is used, Microsoft will always win. Let's use an objective yardstick and to hell with everyone playing the us-versus-them game.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
All fine and dany until someone loses an eye. You may be "for" something but have no doubt MS is "against" you. And in case you haven't noticed they play dirty. I know many people are perfectly content with turning the other cheek but don't for a second think that MS will not smack you in the other cheek with a shovel.
There is a war going on just realize that. MS is better armed, better financed, better trained, has more allies. If you are not careful you will be carpetbombed into dust.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
What allies do they have?
Everybody hates MS, now after MS started a war with Sony, there are not many companies left that a friends with Microsoft.
I also don't think that they can even remotely match the open-source community in development-capacities.
The OS-community wrote almost all drivers itself, while Microsoft is dependent on the hardware manufacturer to do that.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:4, Insightful)
Well that's a bit of a stretch. "Dependendts", "Slaves" or "Prisoners" would be better descriptions, IMO.
They will betray and leave Microsoft the first time they get the chance.
After all, like it or not, MS brought PCs into the realm of usability for the average idiot.
Like it or not, but this is plain wrong.
It was asian-hardware makers which brought PCs into the price range suitable for the average person. Remember DOS? Remember high-memory? Remember IRQ/DMA problems?
Usability is secondary and always was. Otherwise the awkard DOS could have never had any chance against MacOS.
Do you really think Dell would be pulling in almost $32 BILLION dollars if we were still using Dr Dos?
Now, let's get clear about something: Microsoft always trailed the computing industry. Windows was late - very late. All other computers (Amiga, Apple and most Unix) had GUIs much earlier than Microsoft.
Yet, everybody pretends as if without Microsoft there would be no GUI. Without Microsoft, the computing industry would be a couple of years farther ahead than it is now.
Welcome to the joys of market share. MS and the "OS-community" are in much different positions. Since most people use Windows, if a hardware manufacturer wants it's product to sell, they have to make it work with Windows.
That's correct now, *BUT* on servers, most manufacturers support Linux as good as Windows and it's possible that a couple of years down the road, Microsoft will have to write drivers themselves for RAID, etc. and will support only a limited selection of server-hardware. (And this will eventually kill them)
You need an example?
Compaq dropped support for the Alpha-platform, because Linux has taken it over completely and Windows only accounted for 5% of new sales of Alpha-systems.
Within a week, Microsoft dropped support for the Alpha, too, because they just can't support it alone, they just can't.
Hell, even on ordinary x86-hardware, Windows is much more complicated to install if the hardware is not preconfigured by the PC-maker for Windows. If you build your own computer, you know what I mean.
OS developers write their own drivers because they have to. Until they have sufficient market share to justify the expense from the manufacturer of creating another set of drivers, this will be their only option.
Yes, but Microsoft does not have that option.
Once, their dominance is in danger it's just a big way down for MS without any hope for return.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
The problem in a market with networking effects is that an unsuccessful product is not good at all.
Only the open-source nature of Linux made it happen and somewhat outweigthed the big disadvantages like lack of software and drivers in the past.
While there are still a couple of blank spots (like AutoCAD, games or WinModems) the mainstream business hard- and software is there.
As soon as Wine is ready for primetime (always remember Win98 compatibility is enough, the Win32 API is *NOT* a moving target) Linux will truely take off on the desktop, too.
Re:Some of these have nothing to do with Linux... (Score:2)
I use both.
The linux decision was more expediency-driven than hate-driven.
Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (Score:4, Insightful)
I doubt that the CIA/FBI/NSA even uses windows XP for any sort of confidential information. Most like they're still running the nearly bug free Windows NT, or some incarnation of unix.
Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (Score:3, Informative)
Also, the government's secure systems are not even connected to the internet. They're on a completely separate network, the SIPRNET, which is highly encrypted before it leaves the buildings. So, for his #5 to happen, some agency would have to adopt Windows XP early in its life cycle (not their style at all), connect it to the internet (doesn't happen), or inadvertently let someone into their server room (yeah right).
Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (Score:3, Insightful)
No offense, Mr. Barr, but the idea of Linux running on sensitive CIA or FBI computers seems patently ludicrous to me.
Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions... (Score:2)
I believe that OS is called "Wildcat". I have no sources on that, I heard it from someone.
"predictions"? (Score:3, Insightful)
"let's see, kick microsoft's ass; win in court; make big money; be fFamous fForever; eat pizza"
(not that i have anything wrong with that list
Predictions (Score:5, Funny)
To this day flightless like other penguins, Linux mascot Tux will shake the world by flying into the Eiffel Tower, prompting a renewal of the 'war on terrorism'.
2. Slashdot will be free of trolls
CmdrTaco will utter the regexp to end all regexps, and the lameness filter will finally work. Forever.
3. RMS installs Windows
RMS, leader of the Free World, will renounce GNU purity and follow the temptations of Microsoft by installing Windows 2.0. From the horses mouth: "Freeware like GNU just doesn't cut it when stacked up against real software made by real programmers with fat wallets. It's a moral choice really - the corporations deserve our dollars. Freedom shmeedom."
4. There is no prediction 4.
Re:Predictions (Score:4, Funny)
(Sorry, Berke, couldn't resist)
Steve Ballmer as a male stripper (Score:2)
(bump bump, grind grind)
Developers!
(wiggle wiggle shake shake)
Developers!
(oooh yeah!)
Developers!
wishful thinking (Score:2, Insightful)
As for business--I see continued growth. With the addition of things like stateful firewalls and journaling filesystems, more business are going to be installing it in more critical applications.
Re:wishful thinking (Score:2)
Yes it would help to have a PRIMARY desktop that comes by default for new users, but you gain absolutely nothing by limiting choice. A small percentage of normal users become power users and will want to switch to a more powerful desktop, and a larger percentage of normal users think they are power users and will want to do the same. The argument that choice is going to prevent Linux from taking over the desktop.
All this being said real power users use the desktop for opening shells 90% of the time so it doesn't really matter anyway .
Re:wishful thinking (Score:2, Insightful)
Yes, you do. Here's an example. I'm looking for a good gui database front-end. You know, the kind of thing you use to design tables, set access permissions, enter sample data, browse, try out queries, etc. Many people have written such tools for Windows and Linux. On Windows, there's basically one variable: the database server. Each tool may or may not work with the database server I'm using. On Linux, there are more variables.
One is the package format/distribution support. Some frontends aren't packaged for Debian so getting them to work on my system is a little harder (I may need to manually satisfy some library dependency or whatever).
Another is the application framework or widget set. One tool uses Gnome, another uses KDE, there's one using Tcl/Tk, and an old one uses Motif. Only some of them really fit my Gnome desktop. I can still use the others, but that's not the point. The point is that one developer has learned Gnome programming and another has learned KDE and they're not ever going to work on the same GUI together. One guy's choice of a desktop has prevented another guy from contributing to the project.
The end result of all this is that I've spent hours browsing freshmeat, downloading software, compiling it, and finding that none of it is really good. (BTW, I'm still looking, so suggestions are welcome.)
I believe choice in software is a good thing, but it's wrong to say that it doesn't come at a price or that the alternative has no merits at all.
Re:wishful thinking (Score:2)
Secondly differing widget sets work no matter which desktop your using, I run koffice on my gnome desktop regularly. That is the point. It down't matter if every developer that comes down the pipe can work on a particular project, a greater percentage can thatn can jump in on a windows project.
Furthermore, you are crossing the, admittedly, blurry line between a newbie user and an experienced one. It's probably safe to say that NO newbie users are looking for database frontends.
No choice has absolutely no merits above choice. The standard Linix desktop will be able to meet Joe Blows needs, and that is where the desktop market lies. The fact that there are alternate choices for desktops has absolutely no bearing on that fact.
Re:wishful thinking (Score:2, Interesting)
Is this the same Gnome that Sun and HP have chosed as their next generation UI or some other Gnome?
One of linux's greatest problems is the KDE vs Gnome "issue", sadly I think it is pretty unlikely that either of these will bite it. They are both great desktops environments, but the conflict/split between them diverts efforts away from any real chance of desktop dominance.
The fact that these two groups compete is great for linux users, but not for the "linux market" and I would have thought is a major factor discouraging companies porting software to linux.
Alex
Re:wishful thinking (Score:3, Insightful)
You want to copy some text. After selecting the text, do you:
* Rely on the stupid bug in QT 2.x to copy it by only selecting it
* Right click and select copy
* Use Ctrl-C
* Drag and Drop (unlikely)
* After you do one of those, figure out which of the 15 different X clipboards it actually ended up in and retry once you realize that the app you want to paste into doesn't support the same one
Copy a file to a floppy:
* Mount the floppy:
@ Double-click the icon on the Gnome or KDE desktop
@ Right click the icon and select mount
@ Mount manually from a command line:
+ type into XTerm, another virtual terminal, Konsole, Gnome Terminal, etc.?
+ mount -t vfat
+ add entry to
* drag and drop
@ Midnight Commander
@ Konqueror
@ one of a dozen other file managers that don't work
* command line
@ again, figure out which terminal to use
@ cp file
So you see, your argument is completely lost. Windows has a long way to go in order to please the true idiots out there, but Linux has far, FAR farther.
number 6 (Score:3, Interesting)
BUT: I don't see it as a linux win. It'll be a Red Hat win, or an IBM win (or Suse, or Debian, whatever, I'm not playing favorites here). Linux will not, per se, win the day. The services and "value adds" and all that crap will be what gets written about; the pundits (read: ZDNet) will talk about how so-and-so (Red Hat, IBM, whomever) sent in armies of consultants, promised to tailor things to their hardware, etc etc. In other words they'll downplay Linux.
It'll be a win, but everyone (most of all MS) will try to convince the world that it was a different game.
Re:number 6 (Score:3, Insightful)
Would that really be so bad though? If you give Red Hat the market share that MS has right now, do you really think they would be as bad as MS?? The code is still open, and you are welcome to do whatever you want with it. IMHO, Linux is Linux is Linux, regardless of what company manages to push it out.
Number 6: I'm not a number, I am a FREE MAN! (Score:2, Insightful)
Of course! Power corrupts!
Bob-
Re:number 6 (Score:2)
Can you imagine if people in that company's, say, IT department recieved an email attachment from a vendor in OfficeXP format, and then called that vendor up and told them to re-send it in some cross-platform format?
Chances are it would prompt that company's vendors and business partners to switch OS's also.
And so on,
And so forth.
And since "compatibility" and monopoly are all MS has going for it, MS will disintegrate like an loaf of bread in a warm bath.
Re:number 6 (Score:3)
That's why.
Hmm... I love these prediction lists (Score:5, Funny)
Computers will become faster!
And will have more RAM!
Linux will continue to develop!
etc... What would we do without this sage guidance?
Oh come on (Score:4, Interesting)
When was the last time you called up MS for tech support for Windows? Most people just don't care, or are even aware MS will provide any tech support at all.
I don't anticipate a large exodus to Linux when MS stops providing support. There's no reason at all to think that people will move to and learn a new *operating system* that doesn't provide them anything new over Windows 98 with no official support.
Everyone has been predicting that Linux will explode any minute now for *years*. This won't make it happen any sooner. Fact is, Linux doesn't provide anything over Windows for the vast majority of people, and MS has massive marketing muscle. Linux isn't poised to overcome that at all. Linux will need a ton of marketing money, and do something WINDOWS DOESN'T.
As much as people make fun of MS never innovating anything, everything I see in Linux development is meant to bring its functionality in line with Windows. If I see anything in Linux that enables me to do more than Windows, and do it with more stability (sorry, in my experience, Linux with X gives a much more unstable environment than 2k or XP), I'll give it another try.
For the moment, for me, it's XP on me desktop, 2k on my laptop, and OpenBSD on my server.
Re:Oh come on (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Oh come on (Score:2, Insightful)
The point is not what Microsoft will do. They never did do support for the OEM versions of Win95 I owned. That is something they left for the vendors. (a note to those of you that buy the OEM versions from your local computer shop: You are the only support you have. Study well.)
What is far more significant to me is that now that Win95 is an unsupported product, no one else feels the urge to make anything work under it. For me, no problem; I've moved on. However, I've spruced up and passed on old Windows boxes to a couple of my relatives. The non-profit for whom I do tech support is running on a donated Win95 box. What are these people going to do when they can't use functional anti-virus software when connecting to the internet? What happens when they can't install the new version of some software to read a document (and the StarOffice import filter doesn't yet cut it)?
These people will be left out in the cold, and I don't see myself recommending they give uncle Bill $99 for an "upgrade" just to be supported for another 15 months. Linux has been and is difficult for someone who is not interested in computers to install. It is getting better and I'm learning more myself. Windows is getting harder to use as it becomes obvious that the software has a time limit on it even without a pre-defined end to the license.
As these two things cross you can bet your bottom dollar I will migrate the dozen people I now support to a better, open platform.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
But what if these "freeloaders" are running a food bank and use donated machines. They could spent $300 to upgrade to Win XP, or they could feed a homeless/poor family for a month. Which one would you pick?
Re:Oh come on (Score:5, Insightful)
Yet another MS troll modded up the wazoo.
Look at where the linux desktop was a year ago. Now extrapolate another year. You see where I am going here. A year ago linux desktop was little more then a dream right now KDE looks and works great. KDE 3.0 will probably be even better.
And you know what it does not ever need to catch up or surpass windows. I remeber a year or two ago anytime a SQL server vs Oracle debate sprang up on usenet the MS people always made the same argument. SQL server is good enough to do what you want and it costs much less. The same argument goes here. As soon as Linux is good enough OS with good enough apps everything then the price factor will kick in.
When faces with a choice of spending nothing and getting 80% of the functionality or spending hundreds of thousands of dollars corporations will start making the switch. Once they switch people will start switching at home.
Having said all that I am still waiting for something in windows that is as elegant as syslog.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
I don't get this "Linux doesn't offer anything" crap. I seriously think people who say this just aren't keeping up with where we actually are (today, December 28, 2001)
Redhat 7.2 and Mandrake 8.1, IMO, are easier to install than any kind of Windows. And smoother, (much) better looking, faster...
I don't get it, I can't think of anything wrong with it other than that it isn't windows.
(I'm talking current versions here.)
Anybody could deploy Mandrake 8.1 in the workplace and be up and working in a heartbeat, and that's the truth.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
the scroll button things on my laptop was unknown to linux, windows didn't know about them either, but compaq provides drivers for win32.
Besides the network cards being flaky things worked ok, but i actually configuring anything became a complete nightmare, like trying to compile the latest kernel with redhat, trying to get some wireless hacking stuff, etc..
Right now i'm trying out freebsd which so far has worked out a lot better, it doesn't have the same problem with the network card, it saw the wireless, though it didn't know about the video card right off, but getting XFree to figure it out wasn't that bad. Generally i find freebsd to make a lot more sence, being at it's only one operating system and not a collection of things packeged together. when people talk about freebsd i know what there talking about, unlike linux where your distrubution really does matter (at least with redhat).
anyway, maybe if i really knew the in's and out's of how linux worked it i would find it workable, but to me, i can't imagine making it a primary OS, i like linux, but thats mainly because i like fucking with computers, and it's no fun if computers just work right, there needs to be a lot of effort to make it feel worth while.
hmm.. better add this
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
Once Mr. Joe idiot luser starts using openoffice he will want it at home. He will not want to learn word trust me.
In a nutshell. Linux desktop is already approaching the 80% mark pretty fast. Eventually some corporation some place is going to start implementing it. This will start a trend. Linux desktop use will explode. I figure linux should reach 10 percent in two years and over 40% in four. At the point which it reaches 20 to 30% the world will change. The software developers and the hardware manufacturers will jump aboard at about 20% I think.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
I certainly agree with you that home users are not likely to migrate en masse to Linux anytime soon. In fact, I think that OpenOffice is much more likely to become a major problem for Microsoft than Linux. Linux's primary advantage for the home user is cost, but home users almost certainly already own a license for Windows. It came with their computer. OpenOffice, on the other hand, would give them nearly all of the functionality of MS Office (and MS Office file compatibility to boot) at a fraction of the cost, and it even runs on Windows.
That, my friend, is likely going to prove a very enticing offer. In fact, I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see major OEMs offering StarOffice pre-loaded. It would be a very straightforward value-add, at a rock bottom price.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
First, no, not everyone has been predicting that.
Second, Microsoft's OS takes a higher and higher percentage of total computer costs.
15 years ago, Apple dominated the desktop and the PC won because it was maybe 20 to 30% cheaper. Now, we already have reached 20 to 30% of the price of a desktop-system that will go to MS (when you buy retail), which means that a Linux system could be 20 to 30% cheaper if it were preinstalled.
Because of OEM discounts, Windows-machines are still competitive, but as hardware costs continue to fall, Microsoft's fraction continues to rise and soon alternative computer makers will be able to offer significantly cheaper "naked" or Linux-preinstalled systems than the big OEMs and that will help Linux very much.
It's just a matter of time.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
I think you misunderstand what it means when M$ discontinues support for old versions of Windows. It means there will be no new drivers. It means all new software will be certified to run on XP, and will probably fail in interesting ways on older OSs. It means that if you depend on new applications or new hardware, you will be coerced heavily into upgrading to XP.
Then you are in a tough place. You need to accept the new licensing plans. Or consider switching. Personally, I don't hink many people will switch to linux.
This is a classic Microsoft tactic to coerce people into upgrading. The basic policy is
1) Coerce OEMs into preloading.
2) Stop support for old operating systems
3) Make subtle compatibility changes in Office file formats. DOC format is extensible, so this is easy to do.
If you combine the effect of all of these, and take into account interdependence of Windows users, Microsoft can coerce EVERYONE into upgrading. Most people will not have a choice - they have to be able to exchange documents with others who use Windows.
Re:Oh come on (Score:2)
when they ask about support you say, It's great, and identical to what Microsoft offered on your win95 you love.. X dollars per incident.
Yes it is EXACTLY like all microsoft support. if you say anything other than that you are lying to people and creating/ feeding FUD.
the #1 cause of FUD about linux is people who dont know squat acting like experts and spouting lies to people asking questions.
Doubling workstation/desktop marketshare (Score:2)
Seriously, this may sound funny, but heck, if amiga would have 0.05% TODAY it would mean more machines out there then all of the machines put together back in the early 90s.
Even 0.1% of the market IS a market, I'm not in marketting but with the number of computers out there, if you can create some killer app for that 0.1%, I'm sure you can get under the spot light pretty easily.
Re:Doubling workstation/desktop marketshare (Score:2)
I think the 0.24% number arrived at by WebSideStory may be a bit low, but they're probably right about Linux's desktop market share not increasing over the last few years, though the number of desktop Linux users certainly has increased (for every geek-like entitity I know that has migrated to Linux, dozens of people became first-time computer users, running Windows almost invariably).
For desktop share to increase, three things need to happen:
OPS general ignorance (Score:2, Insightful)
Yeah, right (Score:4, Flamebait)
Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace...
Yeah, right. TheRegister might think Mandrake is easier than Windows XP to install, but actually running even this the most simplified of Linuxes is still beyond the average joe sixpack user. This is the only thing really keeping Linux from desktops at the moment - well, that and hardware/software compatibility - but I don't think it's going away any time soon.
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided
If both sides agree on it, why would the judge toss it out? As for the hold-out states, more of them will drop off once the settlement goes through and the ones that remain will be stuck with Microsoft for another year or so, eventually having a very limited impact.
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely
This is just hilarious. Firstly, I doubt that any "three-letter intelligence agency" (there aren't that many) are running XP at this point, or are planning to start doing so. If they're running Windows at all, they'll be on 2000, which is getting pretty secure now that it's been out for a while.
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms
This is quite likely, actually; as Linux becomes more usable and more well-known to big businesses looking to save money/improve security, some companies will undoubably decide to move. Others will decide that Linux/Mac/whatever they were on before wasn't right for them, and switch to Linux. Stuff like that happens all the time. I am thinking Joe was running low on ideas at this point
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux
Yeah, sure. And Tux the Penguin will be replaced by Joe the Wannabe Journalist.
(I don't have a sig)
Re:Yeah, right (Score:3, Funny)
MSN?
Oh, wait. Intelligence, you said ... :)
Re:Yeah, right (Score:2)
Can anyone explain where the market demand for dual-boot OSes is?
I can see a small number of Slashdot MCSE-types that want to play around parttime in Linux but are too lazy to install it, but I can't see what good it will do in the real world. It would increase support costs and therefore the total price of the system, though.
The only argument is that it would be good for advocacy reasons, but, sorry, that does not cut it.
(As a datapoint, IBM shipped all of their corp machines dualboot OS/2 and Windows 3.1 for a while back in the day, and both the OS/2 and the Windows customers bitched to high heaven.)
On the other hand, we're already seeing pre-installed Linux for the corporate market, and that's only going to get bigger. You just need to be a big enough account that you have the right phone number over at Dell or whatever, but I'd bet that it will be come a mainstream OS choice shortly enough. But the last thing corporate MIS wants is their users choosing which OS to boot!
Re:Yeah, right (Score:2)
But so is running Windows! You don't want to know how many questions about windows I have to answer from friends, familie and neighbours, how many machines need reinstalls that they cannot do themselves, how many windows machines are crashing all the time because the owners don't know how to find and install all the latest drivers and patches, and how many virii, trojans and spyware I have removed from those pc's! And let's not forget all the unsecured windows boxes on broadband, happily serving DDoS attacks...
There may be a common perception that Windows is easy to run, but it sure as hell ain't easy to run right.
Re:Yeah, right (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Yeah, right (Score:2)
I count five. That's a decent amount.
FBI, NRO, CIA, DIA, NSA.
And yes, some of them have migrated various orginizational desktops to XP; and to linux as well.
This is NOT a troll... (Score:4, Insightful)
Flame answer 1: Yes, Gnome and KDE are great, but they are great for geeks, not moms. Maybe end the political crap and have them get together for a cookout at my house to bury the hatchet and take the best code from both to make KDGnome? That would kick some ass!
Flame answer 2: Because Macs are great for destop publishing, but that is not what I need to do. (and yes, I know it's BSD, and not Linux)
Flame answer 3: Sorry Linus. You have done great things here, and I have great admiration for your work. I know you are not competing with MS here. I would just like to see Linux knock the head off of Bill's empire. It get's predicted every year.
Flame answer 4: I know, I know, I have all the source code. I should write it myself, right? Well I suck at programming C, and I am man enough to admit that I could not write production level code for a project like that.
Spackler
Re:This is NOT a troll... (Score:2, Informative)
Site is slashdotted,so here's the guts of it: (Score:2, Redundant)
Red Hat will continue to increase market share, sales and profits, leading the ragtag band of open source survivors out of the wilderness of the recession to the land of black bottom lines.
The Linux desktop will achieve a measurable market share on consumer machines and an even larger share of desktops for business and government. The growth will be fueled by both continuing refinement and improvement of the desktop, the growing dissatisfaction with Windows performance, security, and pricing, and the easing of Microsoft licensing restrictions.
Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the marketplace as Microsoft ever so slightly begins to loosen its death-grip on the preload marketplace.
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by the judge as being completely one-sided and the court will compromise between the demands of the holdout states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually prevent them from continuing many of their illegal business practices.
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms to an interoperable mix of Unix, Mac and Linux platforms.
TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey, it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in November, some say as the result of losing touch with their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the lineup.
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client for Linux. This event will be marked by both howls of protest and celebration. Command-line interface (CLI) diehards will proclaim it to be the death of Linux. Most will simply acknowledge its growing popularity.
Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors have it that the dynamic trio is already in discussions with Redmond about championing the Free Software Foundation.
Just like last year, my final prediction drives home a simple point. Whether any of the previous predictions come true or not, it's going to be another banner year for GNU/Linux. It's popularity in the server, desktop, and embedded spaces will continue to grow.
Re:Site is slashdotted,so here's the guts of it: (Score:2)
> 5. U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed
> A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a public and catastrophic breach of classified data because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use completely. Previous security incidents involving the loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes (and heads) will roll.
Not quite the same thing, but this interesting note appeared in Risks Digest 21.83 (available on newsgroup comp.risks) -Alas, the links now say "this story has been removed". Insert your favorite conspiracy theory as required.
Da Mods (Score:4, Funny)
SlashPh3ar +1 Insightful! bojoH4X0R +1 Funny! eliteboss +1 Informative!
"Though it's hard to beat Visual Studio for rapid application development."
l33t0r -1 Troll! bsdnut -1 Flamebait! bojoH4X0R_2 -1 Overrated!
"Except that it constrains you with heavy licensing for the end user."
h4ckerrocket +1 baaaaah! linuxd3wd +1 InMyLittleWorld!
"Which probably doesn't matter, since 90%+ of your customers already have Windows installed."
supercod-R -1 NotMyBag! CmdrTac0 -1 Heretic! superHaK -1 Blasphemy! C0deG0d -1 KarmaTorch!
Sorry about that. Sit on my hands, no more rum before posting.
Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (Score:3, Interesting)
Linux is no closer to being a user-friendly, capable desktop app than it had been in the last 3 years. Try telling the 12 o'clock flashers about compiling a kernel and mounting hard drives and they will give you the "blank stare of doom".
In truth, MacOS X is what Linux needs to become if it ever wants to succed as a desktop OS for the average joe (i.e good apps, nice interface, seemless hardware support, and a good unix command line just in case).
Re:Linux on the Desktop (flamebait I'm sure) (Score:2)
Problem with Number 8: (Score:3, Interesting)
Linux is still very much a geek OS, and since most geeks want broadband or real PPP dialup, I wouldn't see AOL making a huge dent if they did release software for Linux.
What can you predict about this? (Score:4, Interesting)
Similarly, a surprising number of online banking services, auction houses, etc are putting Windows-centric code on their sites, limiting site usability for many potential customers.
I'm looking forward to seeing if there's going to be a backlash against that in the coming year. When sites realize that a good chunk of users are being cut off, could we see "platform agnostic" and "Linux-friendly" become marketable buzzwords, causing sites to leap on the bandwagon and to start performing real Linux usability testing?
And if "Linux-friendly" logos, icons and similar start to appear on sites, could the alternative operating systems enjoy even more visibility as a result?
What will actually happen (Score:3, Interesting)
Linux will improve. No one will care --
A third desktop will emerge and really confuse everything (KDE and Gnome being the other two
OSX will barely maintain Apple's market share and everyone will agree that it is the best OS ever.
Windows 10wnU will be released. Despite massive security flaws and a wicked licensing scheme will continue to rulle the desktops.
2. Linux desktop will appear in public places (Score:2, Interesting)
This will be true only in ISO-8859-1 [terena.nl] (or ISO-8859-15 with Euro) world or at least 8bit simple encodings world.
For other billions of people (Chinese, Indian, Arab, and so on), Linux desktop (with XFree86, GNOME, and KDE) is far from usable for average people.
In other words, there are still remaining large market for such billions of people.
One prediction to rule them all. (Score:4, Insightful)
1. Business as usual. Linux will continue slowly replace Unix servers. Windows will continue to sit on the desktop. Talk of a mainstream linux desktop will continue for several more years.
Re:One prediction to rule them all. (Score:2)
Under the covers (Score:4, Funny)
2. More IIS web servers replaced with Linux and apache as Web Group managers get bigger bonuses for saving oodles of Microsoft license dollars.
3. More Tomcat implementations as said managers save money on the Weblogic license dollars.
4. More failed companies who think they can "cash in" on this Linux thing....
5. The people that started in the garages and basements....(went to work for a few months at various linux startups and got bitter when the stock dipped below a dollar...and they got layed off...) --> will return to the garages and basements...God bless them.
6, VA decides that the only way to pay the
7. The end of world peace.
I was right! (Score:2)
That's a tough one! (Score:2)
Hmmmm
Desktop adoption. (Score:4, Insightful)
-check web mail
-read and print doc/xls files
-surf w/o crashing browser
-use dial-up
-other business stuff.
...rather than boot up her NT box to do the same.
Now with software we use (Moz/StarOffice/KDE) being so nice, stable, & useful, the desktop is at last becoming a viable alternative for Windoze users--with just a little prompting.
To me, the interoperability with Word/Excel/Exchange is the critical thing for businesses. In 2000, this clearly did not work well at all. I think 2002 will indeed herald the year that linux will be occationally adopted as an alternative in corporate environments. Reading/printing these file formats (and protocols) is now *finally* reliable. Ximian's Exchange connector completes it for most businesses.
I don't think that the desktop not being adopted in large numbers this year was because IT managers didn't want to do it, it was because they couldn't do it.
Now they can.
Joe Barr's Track Record for 2001 (Score:5, Informative)
1. Linux Kernel 2.4 will be released, and will trounce Windows in the benchmarks
Half right. 2.4.0 was released, performance was good, but not as good as it could have been. It's gotten better since. Nobody that I know of has done comprehensive benchmarking. I'll give this one a half point.
2. MS Findings of Law overturned, Findings of Fact stand. Ordered back to lower court. DOJ loses zeal for case
Almost perfect. The Conclusions of Law stood, but the Final Judgement was overturned. Everything else was on the nose. I'll give this one a full point.
3. Consolidation and attrition of Linux companies. Fewer distributions. RedHat & VA merge. SuSE & Atipa merge.
Didn't happen. There were some mergers, but no big ones. There was much attrition, but primarily on the fringes of the Linux world, the rest of the computer industry was much harder hit attrition-wise. There are more distributions than ever. There are no superdistributions, in fact, I'd say more people realize today that RedHat != Linux than a year ago. No points.
4. KDE and GNOME continue as separate projects.
Easy point.
5. Linus stops heavy kernel hacking, focuses on community leadership.
You've got to be joking. No points.
6. One of the big five computer retailers offers a Linux boot (or dual boot) for a retail desktop machine.
Nope, didn't happen.
7. Widespread government desktop adoption of Linux
Nope, didn't happen. More servers tho.
8. Bruce Perens shakes up HP.
If it happened, it was completely behind the scenes. From out here, it looks like Compaq's pleading to be eaten had much more effect on HP's management than Bruce did. He has had some effect, and he's still there, so there's always next year. No point.
9. Linux stocks will thrive.
Ha. Hahahaha [lwn.net]. Hahahahahaha. Seriously, they didn't do badly compared to the rest of the tech stocks, but I would hardly call it "thriving". No point.
10. Another great year for Linux
Easy point.
So, last year, he got three and a half out of ten. One was a complete giveaway (#10), and most people would say #4 was a giveaway too. Not the most impressive set of predictions.
Re:Joe Barr's Track Record for 2001 (Score:2)
Didn't somebody just announce a Crusoe based dual-boot machine a little while ago? It might not be shipping yet, but I'd give a half point for that. (I wish I could remember who it was).
There have been reports of various French, German, and Finnish government bodies 'seriously considering' Linux. Even if they're just using this a bargaining tool with MS, I think that still deserves a half point. My own prediction is that these pioneers will lead to widespread government use over the next year or two.
Re:Joe Barr's Track Record for 2001 (Score:2)
And I'd quibble with the half point for #1. As he says, predicting the release of 2.4 is trivial and the real prediction, that it would unambiguously "kick W2K's butt" was completely wrong.
By the way, along with the medals Joe has awarded himself for his accuracy last year, I'd like to throw in a "Pot, Kettle, Black" award for the bit about "Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team will act as advocates for your competition." Anyone who has read Joe Barr's postings on LinuxToday message boards will figure he's in line for Darker Image's board of directors.
Linux desktop will appear in public places (Score:2)
Re:Linux desktop will appear in public places (Score:3, Informative)
Other people that are deploying Linux are Home Depot [informationweek.com], Burlington Coat Factory [internetweek.com], and The New York Stock Exchange [idgnet.com]. Of course there's also IBM, but they [ibm.com] hardly [ibm.com] need [ibm.com] mentioning [internet.com].
I think it's fair to debate how well Linux fits certain needs, but so far there has been solid proof that it fits some very large needs for some vary large companies. By 2003, I think the outlook is nothing but positive. Shooting for world domination is a grand goal, and capturing the desktop world would seem to be a huge piece of completing that goal. As much as we talk about it, I think we all understand that our grandmothers won't be using Linux anytime soon. In the meantime I'll be perfectly happy knowing that Linux is being used for the high-scale, back-end systems, while Fischer Price My First Operating System [microsoft.com] hangs out on the desktop.
Re:Linux desktop will appear in public places (Score:2)
Good god, man - this is
Soko
Re:Linux desktop will appear in public places (Score:2)
My point is that most people will not notice if linux boxes appear in public places - unless they are plastered with penguin stickers.
1.0 (Score:2)
I'm excited about several potentially significant projects that may have their first "stable" releases next year. Everyone knows about OpenOffice [openoffice.org], Apache 2 [apache.org] and Mozilla [mozilla.org] (I'm surprised that neither article mentioned the last two). Here are a few others:
- Subversion [tigris.org] version control rethought, could replace CVS as free software tool of choice
- E [erights.org] capability secure programming
- Reptile [openprivacy.org] reputation-based content aggregator
I want real money idea futures [ideafutures.com] for all predictions!Linux will be 3rd in Line (Score:4, Interesting)
As for Linux on the desktop, I have to remain skeptical of its success. If MacOS X never came about, I'd say their are definite possibilities, but now there is just too much going on besides Linux. Here are reasons why Linux is not going to succeed on the desktop anytime soon:
- Software companies are currently devoting a good chunk of resources towards updating their applications for XP, and also exploring possibilities of using new XP "features".
- .NET will also consume more software company resources that could possibly be focused towards Linux desktop software.
- Apple is going to be releasing faster, more appealing hardware along with an improving OS X. Software companies are going to get distracted into doing new Mac versions of their applications.
- A high-end multimedia explosion is about to hit the computer industry. Over the past several years, multimedia has been a joke in my opinion, but now hardware and software is actually capable of doing some useful and cool stuff. When I read about wireless IEEE-1284 (Firewire), see new media features come out like DVD-RW+, and video software that does a million things in a simple package, I don't even begin to think about Linux. Sorry.
If Linux was where it is now, two years ago, I'd say it had a good chance. Now the future is looking even more bleak. I don't like saying that, but it's the current reality. A bronze medal is still not that bad though, when you think about it...Re:Linux will be 3rd in Line (Score:2)
(Ok, that was more or less just humor, but, seriously, how is Mozilla going to be the future (that was the sig when I read this post, anyway) when all this multimedia stuff is so important? Is Mozilla going to be able to handle it? Then why won't other open source apps be able to handle it? Serious question, not a flame. (I have an iMac, and I don't look for any applications like iMovie to be coming out for Linux any time soon, but if desktop video is ever really that important, I think the open source world will find a way to support it. Yes, it's possibly an order of magnitude harder than word processing, but we have an order of magnitude more contributors...I don't know, I'm just guessing.)
Re:Linux will be 3rd in Line (Score:2)
Moz's capabilites will grow as needed. I don't think anyone will ever want to watch DVDs or whatever in their web browser, dumb ass.
Linux in 2002: More security, high-end computing (Score:2)
My Predictions for next year (Score:4, Funny)
Re:My Predictions for next year (Score:4, Funny)
Re:My Predictions for next year (Score:2)
FBI scores major busts of warez and terrorist rings based on IRC, MUDs, and on-line game networks.
Sure, that's what I mud for.
Its the ease of going to an IRC network, hunting down the first channel that is simular to #cablewarez, and using the @find command that I avoid. To simple for me...
Compare this to a mud.
race Hey, I need a ress.
You echo (elf channel): "Hey, I need a ress."
t shogrot That was a good pk.
You tell Shogrot: That was a good pk.
Shogrot tells you: Shutup, elf newbie
t shogrot Got Photoshop 6?
Shogrot tells you: I'm going to kill you as soon as you get ressed again, if you don't shut up.
think
You think.
t Erafridel Do you have Photoshop 6? I need something to do while I wait for a ress.
You tell Erafridel Do you have Photoshop 6? I need something to do while I wait for a ress.
Erafridel tells you: Nope.
t Syralos Do you have a copy of Photoshop 6 I could download?
You tell Syralos Do you have a copy of Photoshop 6 I could download?
Syralos tells you: What weird magic is this 'Photoshop 6' you speak of?
sigh
You sigh
t Herasth Got Photoshop 6 Warez?
You tell Herasth: Got Photoshop 6 Warez?
Herasth tells you: Yep, but I'm in Australia on 56k dialup.
scream
You scream
Much more entertaining then IRC
Up in here (Score:2)
1.) Purple twinky induced fantasy.
2.) Yet more fantasy, this time assuming users of Linux GUIs will be able to paste text between different applications written by different people. Back when there was growing dissatisfaction about IBM's licensing yet they are still the biggest computer company ever.
3.) This has been said for the past three years and has yet to happen. Why? Apps developed to scratch an itch are often not too broad in scope and have little intention of starting a paradigm. Apps intended to replace closed source counterparts rarely if ever achieve said couterpart's functionality. You end up with a system that doesn't talk to itself with a quarter of the features you could get for paying for something.
4.) People woken up from being cryogenically frozen for the past year could fucking tell you this.
5.) Right. Do you know what sort of systems REALLY classified data is stored on? Probably not. Three letter agencies don't exactly order their super secret computer systems from Dell with Windows 98 installed on them.
6.) No. That is just retarded. Unless several dozens apps somehow get ported to Linux magically this will not happen. No one is going to prepackage and OS they can't sell software for. Case in point BeOS.
7.) Maybe. Leo Laporte likes Linux but I've never heard him actually say anything he has really used it for. Wow you can replace a small handful of Windows programs with it that is sure to impress alot of people. A Linux TV show would be like a live action freshmeat.
8.) What the fuck? That is the most ridiculous thing in the entire article which in itself is notable. AOL on Linux would be like putting a vinyl interior in an Abrams tanks. It's asthetic vinyl...fitting to a fucking tank.
9.) *bong sound*
10.) see 9
Linux desktops will flop--and that's OK (Score:3, Insightful)
Another factor hindering Linux desktop adoption is motivation. Traditionally, open source software is developed by developers for people like themselves. They know what to do and what works for them. What's the motivation of people working on Gnome and KDE "for free"? Making a desktop usable by the Windows/Mac crowd is a labor of love, but even when doing such volunteer work, the Gnome and KDE programmers delight in customizability and complexity, not exactly a good feature in a mass market product.
But that's OK. If I wanted to use that kind of software, I would be using it. God knows, I have paid for it with every PC I bought.
If Linux is ever going to take over large chunks of the desktop market, I think it will be because of some radically and snazzy different new design that that by pure chance catches fire and becomes a fad.
Linux needs to support ACPI (Score:2)
What Linux desperately needs is Advanced Configuration and Power Interface (ACPI) automatic configuration support, something that a group of Linux programmers are working on right now. Imagine automatic and/or menu-driven system configuration for GNOME or KDE like you see in Windows 2000/XP, but working as part of the Linux kernel (2.6.x kernel?). This will at once lift Linux out of hacker toy status and into something that most computer users can comfortably use.
kerneljanitor.org (Score:2)
Dave Jones and Arnaldo Carvalho de Melo gave a talk on irc about it earlier this month. You can find the transcript at http://umeet.uninet.edu/umeet2001/talk/15-12-2001
Btw. I don't understand why Slashdot puts the extra space in URL... Is that supposed to protect someone from accidentally highlighting the URL and then middle clicking in mozilla and being miraculously transported to the page?
Re:kerneljanitor.org (Score:2)
Roblimo--Cathederal & Bazaar (Score:2, Insightful)
He missed defections to OpenOffice (Score:2, Insightful)
1) Not running Windows on the desktop seriously limits the vendor software that can be run on a desktop.
2) Office is now as expensive, if not more so, than Windows.
3) StarOffice has a big name (Sun) behind it, so the corporation can feel that "the CEO can call Scott".
4) If a big corporation or government starts exchanging documents in StarOffice/OpenOffice formats, their suppliers can meet this requirement without spending cash. Sun do this now.
Why, when most corporations employ loads of accountants to minimise the tax they pay, don't they put any effort into reducing their Microsoft Tax bills?
Dunstan
Re:"Loosening of Microsoft License"? (Score:2)
Well, Bob, it seems nobody answered your question, so I'll have a go at it:
Microsoft makes deals with the computer manufacturers, forcing them to ship nothing but Windows and only Windows on all new PCs. In some former democracies courts found this anti-competitive and said Microsoft can't do it anymore. Well, they're still doing it, but the hope is that somehow we can force them to stop, so PC manufacturers (and I mean the big ones) can ship stuff other than Windows, possibly dual booters. That way people would get a chance to find out about other OSs, possibly linux :)
Seamless Integration (Score:5, Interesting)
If I may elaborate on your point, I think you mean "seamless MS-Office integration."
It takes a serious shift of my perception to think of MS-Exchange as "email". It's an email CLIENT, one of many. So is Netscape Mail. So is elm. Elm doesn't read Netscape Mail folders (ok, maybe it does for someone who wants to take the time, but we're talking seamless here), that doesn't stop someone from using elm to "seamlessly" talk with someone in the same office using Netscape Mail.
MS-Office is a monolithic group-ware package that works (well? at all?) only with itself. As such, there never can be "seamless integration" because Microsoft doesn't want there to be.
Microsoft has won the perception battle with MS-Office. Many managers think that in order to be compatable with anyone else, they must use MS-Office, and that only runs on MS-Win.
If "we" are going to open the desktop market, "we" must change that perception. I am very, very glad to see OpenOffice, KDE-Office, and all the other suites being built. The Noosphere is being homesteaded at the office application layer, and I couldn't be happier.
BTW, my last two jobs have been in shops where the one and only reason they use MS-Win is because they are entrenched into using MS-Office.
Bob-
Proper definitions of terms, please! (Score:2, Insightful)
2. Office is a productivity suite, not a groupware suite. A groupware suite is a suite of applications that works in conjunction with a server to enable email, calendaring and collaborative workflow. Such applications are offered by Novell, Lotus and MS.
While it may be the case that the only reason most offices use MS products is because of the entrenchment in MS-Office, it is definitely the case that most businesses use MS because monkeys could be trained to use it.
If you doubt this, just remember - they taught you to use it.
-------
Re:"Loosening of Microsoft License"? (Score:2)
Good point. I've found SO 6.0beta to be wonderful. I run it on both WIn 2K and Linux and am very happy with it so far. Any noticable quirks for me are minor (like why does auto spell always come up disabaled, etc) The filters are night and day better than anything before them. No, its not a 100% replacement for Office, but I'm not lookin gfor that. I'm looking for a client which the 90% of my users who don't need all teh features of Office can use. Even at $40, if Sun decides to charge, it'll be worth it in volume (since I'm sure the price will drop for the enterprise)
That said, I think Sun would be better off not charging for 6.0 They need on kick butt Office release which folks can adopt and few will adopt ian unproven suite if they have to pay for it. Get them hooked, then maybe with 6.5 or 7.0, charge for the upgrade. Folks that are convinced will pay while those that want free as in beer will stick with 6 It would help the penetration of Linux into the desktop. Of course I wonder if distros like RedHat will just pay Sun some cash and include SO in their distros. Only time will tell.
Re:Sounds like 10 ten pipe dreams to me (Score:2)
The linux desktop is going nowhere fast, and for most of these projections to come true there would have to be a mass migration to the linux desktop which will not happen.
Debatable. But you are probably correct that there will not be a mass migration to a Linux desktop, at least in a short period of time. But you can't deny the efforts being made to push in that direction. With a few moves in the right direction I think Linux has a pretty good chance.
OEMS are stepping away from the linux desktop not towards it, so you will not be seeing "dual boots".
OEMs screwed it up all on their own. I recently ordered a Dell i8k laptop back when they were still "offerring" Linux preinstalled. If I chose Linux, Dell told me it would take 2-3 weeks to ship. However a Windows version could be shiped the next day. And do you seriously think Microsoft would let a OEM ship anything dual-booted with Windows?!?
I look back at the NT 4 domain model, and it wasn't great, but its better than anything in the linux camp.
You haven't played much with Samba [samba.org], have you? Samba can completely replace NT4, Warp, and Netware services. That's the server side. On the client side there's Pam_Smb [csn.ul.ie] which can allow Linux to authenticate to NT/2000 domains. Red Hat 7.2 even gives you this option during install now.
And now with AD you have highly scalable enterprise ready directory services and no way to truly integrate linux.
We can argue about your definition of "truly", or I can go back to my Perl scripts [perl.com] that work with AD just fine.