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A Timeline of the Future

timothy posted more than 12 years ago | from the my-next-date-must-be-too-far-ahead dept.

Technology 696

The Night Watchman writes: "Ian Pearson, a British futurist, has produced a sort of timeline of the future, which provides a simultaneously hopeful and bleak look into the coming decades. Mr. Pearson has evidently had a fairly high success rate; a timeline he produced in 1991 was about 85% accurate. An article on Yahoo news has a summary." Reader ricst lists some of Pearson's predictions: "People have some virtual friends, but don't know which ones (2007), leisure activities for intelligent software entities released (2015), electronic lifeform given basic rights (2020)." Brought to you by a division of British Telecom, but no date is set for when they win their hyperlink patent suit.

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No way! (-1, Offtopic)

cscx (541332) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023650)

A first post?

Re:No way! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023673)

Alas, since this is a logged in first post, it does not count. Ergo, I must claim this first post in the name of the Israeli Soldiers who are quitting the battlefield.

Sorry.

- The AC Avenger

Electronic lifeforms. (1)

bleckywelcky (518520) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023654)

Would be really interesting to see how that sort of situation would be dealt with. Mentioned that they would be given basic rights - I would guess to exist or whatnot. I would think that something along those lines wouldn't come around until true AI was actually developed and implemented.

Re:Electronic lifeforms. (5, Insightful)

daniel_isaacs (249732) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023687)

Never mind rights for "elecronic" life forms. I'm hoping Humans still have rights in 2020.

Re:Electronic lifeforms. (1)

foxxo (262627) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023785)

I think the timeline on the whole is awfully optimistic about the progress of artificial intelligence/life, among other things, and especially with the rate at which artificial life will gain widespread acceptance as "equal." Even ignoring the lack of technological momentum required to reach the points predicted in the timeline, I don't think our society's going to be ready to consider an AI really "Intelligent" in 2016, much less give it a PhD.

The timeline is all wrong (3, Interesting)

HanzoSan (251665) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023889)


AI may be at the level for this at 2016, and we may have the processors to handle it, but even if AI is that good, robotics will never catch up to this.

The best we will be able to do is build intelligent interactive houses, like you walk into your house and you say some words and everything prepares itself, food starts cooking, your favorite show comes on, your door to your room opens, maybe some robotic thing is used to prepare your food.

When you go to bed everything is shut off automatically as you leave the room, and your house temperature in your room is set to an exact degree for sleeping

Re:Electronic lifeforms. (5, Funny)

nomadic (141991) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023795)

Great, now we accidently kill the wrong process and we become murderers.

Re:Electronic lifeforms. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023807)

Blä

85% accurate? (4, Interesting)

Saint Aardvark (159009) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023668)

And how exactly does that get defined? Has anyone got a link to that '91 set of predictions?

Re:85% accurate? (4, Interesting)

dagoalieman (198402) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023742)

You have a good point.. how do we define accurate?

I can draw up a 100% accurate timeline for the next N years, you pick the N:

Year 1: Someone dies, someone's born.
Year 2: Someone dies, someone's born.
...
Year N: Someone dies, someone's born.

He says that an Artificial Electric Lifeform gets basic rights.. or something like that. Ok, how do we determine the lifeform is one? (I had a full ethics class on that one, and we didn't even scratch the surface of things. Day 1 we tore the Turing Test apart, proved it was more pathetic than my predictions above.) Better yet, what are the rights? The program can't be kill -9ed by anyone other than root? Hell, we could have those rights granted in a law aimed at stopping electronic sabotage of other companies, particularly web servers.

Nostradamus did get a few predictions eerily correct, but most of his are either 1. Way Off, or 2. So vague that it's damn near impossible for them not to end up true. IMHO, this list falls into the same category- Use vague terms, define those terms as you like, and wham, it's true.

I'm not saying this guy lacks any credibility, but I'm not impressed with the little that I saw. and the good point was made that these are the same folks who brought you the "hyperlink patent." (he may not be associated with that, but somewhere up the chain he gets tied to the morons, and they influence him at least slightly.)

Heck.. Does anyone see something in there that's already true? Perhaps the Leisure for intelligent programs- as in expansion packs for the game Sims??

Sigh. Move along...

Re:85% accurate? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023882)

Day 1 we tore the Turing Test apart, proved it was more pathetic than my predictions above.
In which case, my arrogant little weenie, it's time for you to learn some more about the Turing test. It was proposed as a means to actually start a concrete debate about all the issues involved - to move it from the realms of philosophy to those of mathematics and physics. We need an actual test for some of these things; we need to know what we're asking when we want an "artificially intelligent" lifeform. As such, it worked like a dream.

Back to school, jerkwad. And wipe that smirk off your face.

Extinct Animal (5, Interesting)

Beowulf_Boy (239340) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023669)

Also by 2006, scenes from blockbuster dinosaur film "Jurassic Park" could take a step closer to
reality when the first extinct organism is brought back to life, he predicts.

Already been done, 2 years ago actually, an Asian Gaur was cloned from the last remaining specimen after it died.

Re:Extinct Animal (2, Informative)

niftyeric (467236) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023678)

Here [lycos.com] is an old article discussing the above.

Re:Extinct Animal (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023685)

The Guar is endagered, not extinct, and it died two days after it was born.

Cloning extinct animals (2)

Jonathan (5011) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023709)

Already been done, 2 years ago actually, an Asian Gaur was cloned from the last remaining specimen after it died.

True enough, but seeing how the specimen had just recently died, it isn't quite the same as the "Jurassic Park" scenario, which will probably never come to pass, no matter how advanced cloning technology becomes because the information just isn't there. We'll never get even close to the complete genome of a dinosaur because its DNA has long since been degraded. And don't tell me about preserved DNA in amber -- first of all, almost all of the claims about preserved DNA have since been shown to be simple contamination, and secondly the were just short fragments anyway.

Re:Cloning extinct animals (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023915)

We'll never get even close to the complete genome of a dinosaur because its DNA has long since been degraded.

Didn't you watch the movie? We'll just splice in some frog DNA wherever there are gaps. Then, we'll be screwed because the dinosaurs will learn to spontaneously impregnate themselves, and run around knocking down buses with their heads.

They forgot to predict: (-1, Offtopic)

reparteeist (533894) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023674)

(2015) The Microsoft antitrust case comes to an end. To the surprise of many, the proposed settlement is rejected. Microsoft is ruled guilty of illegally exploiting its monopoly to expand into other markets. In terms of remedies, Microsoft is therefore forced to make sure everyone has fair access to their monopolist software. They are required to allow every person buying a new computer to receive a pre-loaded copy of Windows XP, Microsoft Office XP and Microsoft Bob for Windows. (In negotiations, the DOJ later agreed that Microsoft may charge OEMs a small US$500 "distribution fee" per product to cover expenses.) Furthermore, Microsoft's janitor is authorized by the court to tell Bill Gates that he's an asshole whenever he thinks management tries to take further illegal steps to dominate the market.

the need for distraction (-1)

SweetAndSourJesus (555410) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023679)

I think the need to be distracted is something we won't see in AI. Why would a machine get bored?

while ($bored)
{
sort(@screws);
}

Sad News - Goatse.cx guy DEAD (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023683)

I just heard the sad news on BBC radio. Web entreprenuer/pioneer goatse.cx guy was found dead in his home this morning. Even if you never admired his work [goatse.cx] , you can appreciate what he did for the 'last frontier' of the internet.

Reports are that he died from complications resulting from "A Timeline of the Future". Truly a internet icon. He will be missed :(

AI: the end (2)

debrain (29228) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023684)

We shall see the end to everything that we, the magnificient consumer ant colony, have taken for granted, and we shall erect a new being, less of a colony and more a body, and at its head shall be artificial intelligence in place of colonial queens, and we shall be but cells composing organs in a colossal being.

Prior to that, let us hope for many a good beer.

The Signposts Document (5, Informative)

Forager (144256) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023686)

I've always enjoyed reading this author's speculations about the future -- he seems to be slightly off-target on some things, and his work is a bit optimistic at times, but overall it's an interesting read.

Main site:
http://kurellian.tripod.com/spint.html [tripod.com]

Storage site:
http://members.aol.com/kurellian/spint.html [aol.com]

~A.

Re:The Signposts Document (3, Funny)

Yorrike (322502) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023699)

Especially the part about artificial kidneys in 2015 and artificial livers in 2020. I guess I no longer have to worry about drinking all that beer and coke, science will solve my over-indulgence releated medical problems.

Well, at least 85% of them.

Predicting the past? (0)

fferreres (525414) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023690)

"People have some virtual friends, but don't know which ones (2007)"
Like Anonymous IRC or BBS in the early 90s? What did he mean?

"... leisure activities for intelligent software entities released (2015)"
Like the SETI screensaver or the such? Or like the idle loop in the x86s? What's "inteligent software"? Every company calls their software inteligent.

"...Electronic lifeform given basic rights (2020)."
I'll enjoy all the +5 (Funny) post that are going to pop-up from this prediction. Of course, this one will fell in the 15% of failed predictions. The other 85% are obvious things or things that already happened.

Re:Predicting the past? (2, Insightful)

xonker (29382) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023780)

Like Anonymous IRC or BBS in the early 90s? What did he mean?

I think that means that you have online friends that are AI, but you're not sure which friends are AI and which ones are real people. In 2007 Slashdot will have AC and AI posters, and the AI posters will probably make better observations and definitely be more polite...

Hmmmm... (4, Interesting)

Crispin Cowan (20238) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023695)

I would really like to see that 1991 set of predictions claimed to be 85% accurate. IMHO, some of his current predictions are on crack. The goofiest one I've found yet: AI entity gains PhD 2016. I'll be impressed if an AI entity can parse a dissertation well enough to answer trivial questions about it by 2016.

Crispin
----
Crispin Cowan, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist, WireX Communications, Inc. [wirex.com]
Immunix: [immunix.org] Security Hardened Linux Distribution
Available for purchase [wirex.com]

Re:Hmmmm... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023722)

Even more optimistic (or quite possibly pessimistic) is his prediction for a year earlier:

Nanotechnology toys 2015

Re:Hmmmm... (1)

MrP- (45616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023725)

Hey, for $100 I can get a PhD in religion at ULC.org (and I already am a minister for free :) ... just have to answer 75% questions correct on the test, since we would have to do research to pass the test, I dont see why an "AI entity" cant search google for the answers. So I don't think it would be hard for AI to get a PhD

Re:Hmmmm... (5, Funny)

AntiNorm (155641) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023755)

So I don't think it would be hard for AI to get a PhD

It would be pathetically easy, even today. All you would have to do is give the AI bot some basic communication skills and have it get in touch with the "U N I V E R S I T YD I P L O M A S" people. There you have it -- an AI bot with a PhD from a prestigious nonaccredited university!

Re:Hmmmm... (2)

Yorrike (322502) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023778)

How about "Plane Zorbing: Jumping out of planes in inflatables"

I know there's some nutters out there, but planes zorbing? C'MON!

Re:Hmmmm... (3, Interesting)

Repton (60818) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023825)

> The goofiest one I've found yet: AI entity gains PhD 2016.

It's not quite the same, but computer programs have already published papers.. For example, an automatic theorem prover was able to deduce a new mathematical result (closing an open problem that people had worked on). The output was run through another program to beautify it somewhat, and the result was published as a paper co-authored by the two programs. I don't have a link, but I've seen the paper...

Re:Hmmmm... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023830)

Even more absurd is that AI then wins a Nobel prize 2 years later in 2018, two years after the first PhD. That must have been one heck of PhD thesis...

Re:Hmmmm... (3, Funny)

Dolly_Llama (267016) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023878)

The real question is will the AI list the PhD prominently in its slashdot sig?

85% is low for a self-promoter (3, Insightful)

drfrank (16371) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023702)

It's easy to get 85% accuracy. Make 100 predictions about the next 100 years. Make 85 of them statements such as, "By 2050, the computers will be faster." Make the other 15 really far-out stuff like "2020: Flying cars" to keep the technophile's interest.

Submit story to slashdot through electronic psuedonym (hotmail), and watch your hit counter spin!

Other stuff by this guy (2, Informative)

Repton (60818) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023703)

Check out his future for human evolution [bt.com] . Rise of robotus multitudinous predicted within the next 50-100 years...

Re:Other stuff by this guy (0)

fferreres (525414) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023803)

Maybe he saw "A New Hope" and got the idea from there. Maybe he read some of Asimov's books. It can't believe someone will take this guy seriously. This must be some kind of "conspirancy joke" to laught at us slashdotters!

Social consequences? (2, Insightful)

jACL (75401) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023704)

One has to wonder about the social consequences of:

"He predicts that humanoid robots will fill factory jobs by 2007. By 2015, robots will be able to take on almost any job in hospitals or homes."

Talk about a rich-poor gap. Sounds like the perfect backdrop for a Butlerian Jihad.

Re:Social consequences? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023864)

Kinda reminds me of the monologue from Star Trek VI about the origins of the word Sabotage.

Hmmm... (1)

Archie Steel (539670) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023705)

I though 25% of TV Celebrities were already synthetic...

Seriously, a lot of these predictions seem a bit off-the-wall...the problem is, sometimes it does not matter for something to be technologically feasible. It must also be something that's wanted/needed or that will create a need...I fail to see why parents would by a "virtual shopping Barbie" for their kids - you don't want to give a credit card to an 8-year old!

Copyright-Friendly Basic Rights? (4, Insightful)

Rayonic (462789) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023706)

electronic lifeform given basic rights (2020).

I don't see how this is possible, since (theoretically) any electronic lifeform would have perfect memory. If you have a perfect, electronic memory then how would the government or MPAA/RIAA know that you're not "pirating" some music/movies/books in there? You could just listen to music once and play it back whenever you wanted. Heck, why buy a DVD when you can just play back the memory of when you saw it in a movie theater? It's much more convenient and impressive, not to mention free.

Nope, any and all electronic minds will have to have DRM technology built-in and have regular brain-sweeps to make sure the being has a digital right to whatever content is in it's brain. Heck, while they're in there they might as well clean up any unwanted (by them) memories or sentiments they encounter. Basic rights. Sure.

And need I point out that this would apply to any technology-enhanced human beings as well? I think we'll sooner see human beings with "PDA's" in their brains than true artificial intelligence.

Re:Copyright-Friendly Basic Rights? (2)

Have Blue (616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023848)

A mind sufficiently advanced to be given rights would probably be able to defeat any constraints imposed on its mind. It could develop its own encryption (mnemonic?) methods to prevent multimedia content from being recognized as such, or learn to backup and restore its subversive thoughts to avoid scans.

I believe that due to emergent behavior and similar factors, processes with the level of complexity required for AI will not be directly configurable, but will have to be "programmed" through techniques similar to the way human minds are "programmed" (hypnosis, brainwashing, information control, etc). And the realization that that which is frowned upon or outright illegal/immoral can be inflicted on an AI might be a key step in granting them rights.

Too many predictions focused on AI that is far off (5, Insightful)

stefanlasiewski (63134) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023707)

He's making a couple of jumps with some predictions:

By 2025, there will be more robots than people in developed countries. By 2030, robots will become mentally and physically superior to people -- and perhaps unwilling to tolerate the existence of their human creators.

So he's saying that we'll have self-aware robots in 23 years. This seems pretty unrealistic to me, being that we have yet to design a computer that has demonstrated anything close to human conciousness.

He predicts that humanoid robots will fill factory jobs by 2007. By 2015, robots will be able to take on almost any job in hospitals or homes.

2007 isn't that far off. If humanoid robots are going to fill factory jobs, wouldn't we be seeing some humanoid today?

And why humanoid? Seems like the current factory robots (massive robots at the auto factories, for example) are doing pretty well without a humanoid design.

Humanoid robots already debuted (2)

jACL (75401) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023740)

See the CNN story [cnn.com] about the Sony SDR-3.

Re:Humanoid robots already debuted (1)

Reality Master 101 (179095) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023869)

We've had "humanoid robots" since the 50s. Watch any science fiction movie. :)

It's the brain that's the hard part.

Quit predicting the future, predict the market! (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023710)

If you're going to prognosticate what is to come, you may as well make a few bucks doing it. Perhaps a few lotteries along with a few stocks would do the trick. Just a thought. :)

Earliest potential occurrence (5, Interesting)

Nicolas MONNET (4727) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023715)

Time travel invented ... 2075
Faster than light travel ... 2100


What makes the first one potentially easier? I wonder.

Re:Earliest potential occurrence (5, Funny)

SPrintF (95561) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023733)

Once you've built a time machine, you can go back in time and hand yourself the blueprints. Piece o' cake.

Re:Earliest potential occurrence (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023744)

Time travel into the future may be possible at speeds near the speed of light.

That, and the predictions are just fantisies of a self described futurist.

MY BALLS!!!!

Re:Earliest potential occurrence (2, Funny)

Repton (60818) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023808)

Time travel into the future is easy!

I'm doing it right now!

Re:Earliest potential occurrence (4, Funny)

nomadic (141991) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023893)

If you have the time travel, then you could always go forward in time to 2100, and bring back the secret of FTL travel...

Bleak future (2, Flamebait)

Mac Nazgul (196332) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023716)

I personally think that we are all doomed, probably before any of these things have a chance to happen. Think about all the things we create in this world... All of the amazing advances we have made... yet people still starve and die in the street all over the world. Why? Because human nature is to create for personal gain. Those not born into the power elite (Political/Business/Military) are doomed to morgage their entire life for money. And all this technology we create only benefits those who are in control. How do you like those new Nikes you bought? Want to know how many 10 year olds had to die to bring you those? How's your tax bill this year? Guess what- Micorosft (and Cisco) payed no federal taxes last year!

We are all doomed becasue of inherant greed and reactive attitudes towards the problems of the world. "we don't need to do something about the middle east!" *first plane hits tower* Shit! we have do to something now!

Hogwash. (3, Insightful)

jcr (53032) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023892)

All of the amazing advances we have made... yet people still starve and die in the street all over the world. Why? Because human nature is to create for personal gain.

.. and in those countries that interfere the least in people's creative activity, even the poorest of the poor can survive with minimal effort.

How do you like those new Nikes you bought? Want to know how many 10 year olds had to die to bring you those??

Oh, cry me a river. First of all, Nike's not employing gangs of thugs to murder ten-year-olds. Secondly, the people who go to work in Nike's factories aren't doing so at gunpoint, they're doing it because working in a sweatshop is a step up from subsistence farming.

Get a grip.

-jcr

Page 6... (3, Funny)

xonker (29382) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023717)

"Orgasm by email - 2010"

Suddenly "you've got mail" takes on a whole new meaning... spam becomes wildly popular... hookers are out of work in droves...

Only eight more years...

Hmm! (2, Funny)

MrP- (45616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023832)

That gave me an idea.. a software/hardware vibrator system, when the software reads sexually explicit words it activates the vibrator. hmm.... yes, hmm.. and the more hardcore the word, the more it vibrates. could possibly incorporate some AI to process the text as a story, "as I go down on you", would simulate a BJ.. ah yes, fantastic! I shall begin work immediately!

Be back later..

Here's Ians homepage... (0)

fferreres (525414) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023720)

There's some patents he owns and a vitae, as well as other info. He didn't yet learn to put links, so basically it's just a large text homepage...

He didn't yet learn to use hyperlinks, so basically it's just a large text homepage...

Ian's Homepage [bt.com]

Re:Here's Ians homepage... (1)

hey (83763) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023828)

I agree - a very sad home page...
"My publications have always been well received and I have been given the following awards"
oh brother.

Re:Here's Ians homepage... (1)

Talez (468021) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023870)

BT wants to sue everyone for using hyperlinks. Person with homepage on BT's server doesn't use hyperlinks...

Yep... Everything seems in order here! :D

European mirror (also a HTML version available) (3, Informative)

arnoroefs2000 (122990) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023729)

wow (1)

MrP- (45616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023814)

That html version sucks, it renders horribly and has "CREATED WITH UNREGISTERED VERSION" links everywhere, why not register it and then try again?

Better List (3, Informative)

BrianGa (536442) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023746)

Be advised, an easier-to-read list is available at groupbt [groupbt.com] .

Futurism, humbug... (3, Interesting)

Squeeze Truck (2971) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023748)

I've about had it with technilogical futurists. These people have been predicting the same sorts of things for over 100 years. Progress to these people is unstoppable. They predict things only because they are technically possible, and never take into account anything deeper.

I predict that the public's fascination with technology for its own sake will have seriously diminished by 2010.

I predict... (2, Funny)

MrP- (45616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023802)

.. every human will be locked in a box with no windows, that way we cant violate the DCMA in any way. All the ideas and inventions in the article will come to light, but only for RIAA/MPAA members.

Actually I bet my prediction is more accurate than the Ian Pearsons :)

Re:Futurism, humbug... (5, Funny)

Squeeze Truck (2971) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023818)

Or how about this:

2008: Mujahideen overthrow most western-aligned governments in mideast. Oil production comes to a complete standstill. World economies collapse.

2009: Rain falls for first time on Arakkis.

2011: Americans burn sheafs of "future predictions" to keep from freezing to death.

2013: Americans all starve because robotic pets are not edible.

You've got to be kidding me (1)

philipkd (528838) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023752)

Just look at the 2002 predictions. None of them are going to happen. I understand that's it hard to use induction to predcit what'll happen in 10 years, but we can be pretty sure what won't happen in 10 months. - Disposable Paper Cellphone ($10) - Automatic measurement of body using laser scanning boohths in shops - Laser body scanning unites in clothes shops - First all woman space crew

Most of this sounds unlikely.. (1)

Yahiko (461616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023762)

Especially:

Computers will write most of their own software

Now I'm no expert, but doesn't the halting problem that Turing worked on prevent this?

Re:Most of this sounds unlikely.. (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023799)

Nope

One Word (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023855)

Computers will write most of their own software.

They already do. They do so via a program called a compiler.

Re:Most of this sounds unlikely.. (5, Insightful)

Yorrike (322502) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023863)

This guy is taking the piss. I mean, how can anyone take these seriously:

Orgasmatron: 2012
Creation of The Matrix: 2025
Full Direct Brain Link: 2030 (yet, the matrix is created 5 years earlier?)
Possible Rise of global machine dictator: 2020
Politcal correctness creates new dark age: 2050
Whole generation effectively unable to read, write, think and work: 2050
Time travel invented: 2075
Faster than light travel: 2100

There's no way any of that can really be taken seriously.

Confessions to AI priest - 2004 (2, Interesting)

dicka_j (544356) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023764)

This was done in Australia a few years ago. Confessions were entered into a computer through a touch screen and the confessor received a printed out list of all the sins plus a handy piece of advice for each one.

Confessions to AI Priest. (1, Flamebait)

Squeeze Truck (2971) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023768)

This prediction alone should prove that this guy is a grand-mal retard.

Why not? (1)

MrP- (45616) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023788)

www.ulc.org , you can become a reverend for free, just put your name/email/address and ta-da you can perform marriages, baptismals, etc. If AI becomes a reality, it can be very stupid and still become a minister, why not a priest?

hmm, i named my computer, wonder if I can sign it up, they wouldnt know...

Re:Why not? (2)

Squeeze Truck (2971) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023859)

The whole concept is idiotic. How can a machine with no soul possibly perform an absolution for God? Who would visit such a confessional except for yuks?

This guy is bats I tell you!

Australian govt. considering his AI predictions... (0)

fferreres (525414) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023769)

7 June 2001 Mr Elton Humphrey Secretary

Senate Community Affairs Reference Committee

Suite S1 59

Parliament House

Canberra ACT 2600.

Dear Mr Humphrey

Thank you for this opportunity to submit a submission into The Senate inquiry into the Nursing Profession.

I am aware that the inquiry is focusing mainly on Nursing Education and Nursing Retention and Recruitment issues, however I believe that before these issues can be addressed successfully there are 3 essential elements that any Nursing study needs to take into consideration if there is to be a successful outcome .

These elements if incorporated will bring Nurses back into the profession and certainly will retain a highly skilled professional Nursing workforce.

These elements are as follows:

* Caring Profession

* Holistic Nursing

* Valuing and Respecting Nurses and the Nursing Profession

Unless the above are considered and integrated into a plan Nurses will continue to leave the Profession as they are doing now and will not be incited back into a workforce which does not respect or value them. Nurses need to be able to deliver holistic care in a caring and nurturing environment.

I am of the belief that if the above can be integrated into a total holistic approach to the Health Industry then there may be a chance for the future to be improved.

Please consider the attached submission as part of a solution to the issues confronting the Government and the Health Industry in relation to the Nursing Profession.

I would like to have the opportunity to appear before the Senate Select Committee if the Senate Committee travels to remote Western Australia for public hearings .

Yours sincerely

Peta Nottle (Mrs)

New Vision - New Direction

I have been thinking about the Nursing profession for many years now and wondering about solutions. I would like to take this opportunity to outline what I believe could be solutions to the current situation that nursing finds its profession in today.

Return to caring, Nursing is a heart centred profession.

To allow nurses to nurse holistically.

Respect and value nurses.

1. Return to Caring

To nurse means to care for or to nurture with compassion.

Mr Ian Pearson a renowned information technology futurist and a British telecommunications analyst published his predictions for technology over the next 2 decades, combine his predictions with what we know about nursing today, and it is not hard to see what the nursing profession might look like in 2020.

What happens when computers are smarter than us? For Nursing...

Here's some part of the text...

Pearson believes that this will cause a shift to a "care economy" computers can never learn to care. People will concentrate on the human interpersonal side of work.

Nurses will need to get back to their original and best strength caring. Although computers cannot care, they can help nurses define, quantify and measure the effects of caring of patients outcomes. Making sure that they do just that is crucial to nursing's survival.

-----
Here's the full lenght report [google.com] in HTML format.

Spambot's rights? (1)

qwerpoiu (532823) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023771)

"electronic lifeform given basic rights (2020)" Does that include the right to harvest emails?

Action Man's Dream Come True (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023776)

Smart Barbie with ... full sensory input: 2010

What sort of sensory input, exactly? Ahem.

Wha... (1)

Second_Derivative (257815) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023777)

...some of this stuff's a complete crock of crap. "Phasers issued to police (laser/tazer hybrid)"? eh? how the heck do you integrate a light beam generating device (which still havent seen any significant improvement this decade, at least that I'm aware of) with a device that shoots a physical projectile carrying a current in an at all useful manner?

"Cassini reaches Saturn, 2004". No, really? good golly I could make a dozen such 'predictions' based on NASA's space programmes schedule. Maybe I ought to be employed as a futurist. And the priorities for AI are messed up: a natural language interface coming after natural language translation? surely an understanding of context and meaning is required for translation, one well above what is needed for a natural language interface (which only really needs to understand computer-based concepts in any level of detail)

There's some interesting stuff here, yeah, but if even a skim read of it indicates a few glaring oddities such as these then excuse me for taking this doc wih a cubic metre of NaCl ;)

Re:Wha... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023884)

...some of this stuff's a complete crock of crap. "Phasers issued to police (laser/tazer hybrid)"? eh? how the heck do you integrate a light beam generating device (which still havent seen any significant improvement this decade, at least that I'm aware of) with a device that shoots a physical projectile carrying a current in an at all useful manner?

Law enforcement agencies around the world are (for better or worse) already being equipped with directed energy microwave stun guns. The directed beam induces currents that heat up a thin outer layer of your skin and stimulates your pain receptors.

So the next time you want to demonstrate at a WTO or G7 meeting, you might want to wear an all-aluminium outfit.

Re:Wha... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023888)

The laser creates an ionized channel in the air . The device then sends the charge down the ionized air instead of down a pair of copper threads. This is already in devolopment.

Flying Cars? (2)

The Dev (19322) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023779)

What bullshit. He made no mention of gravity/inertia control or flying cars. Not even in the "wildcard" section. Yet he mentions contact with ET's, and time travel. Just how do the ET's get around? Scramjet engines? C'mon.

What a dumbfuck--he forgot The Singularity! (1)

coltrane679 (118528) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023783)

Otherwise the dude's credible--he put nuclear fusion power at 2040, only 80 years behind schedule (c. 1950).

My Favourite (1)

Forager (144256) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023790)

Living Genetically Engineered Furby - 2040

I think this is cause enough for outlawing genetic engineering ... Somehow the Furby Autopsy [phobe.com] isn't so appealing any more ...

uk internet at 75% in 2015? (2, Insightful)

brondsem (553348) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023791)

Internet achieves 75% penetration in UK ..... 2015

this seems very un-optimistic. especially compared to his other statements.

Funny... (2)

SevenTowers (525361) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023806)

95% of people in advanced nation computer literate 2010
Since we are only about 1% now, that's a hell of an increase for 8 years...

Re:Funny... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023847)

It sounds ridiculous, but 1% is pretty accurate.

People who are going on 'mIRC' to 'chat' aren't literate. It's IRC. mIRC is simply a client.

If you can't type without 'u', '2', 'cu', etc., you're also not computer literate. Hell, you might not even be literate at all.

Artoo (1)

Max the Merciless (459901) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023813)

Exactly when will I get to buy an Artoo unit?

Hm. (1)

Mister Snee (549894) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023826)

AI Students: 2007
Machine use of human-like memorising, recognising, learning: 2012

I'm not sure if that's ironic or poetic. :/

Working Spellchecker: 2060 (3, Funny)

Mister Snee (549894) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023838)

Artificial Inteligence -- top of page 5.
Hehe.

never forget. that is a scary thought! (1)

Turnesol (55609) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023839)

from Yahoo article:

"By 2030.... ...it will be possible to fully link computers to the human brain using nano-technology, or engineering at the molecular or atomic level. The ability to "back up" our brains will mean never forgetting anything ever again and being able to think and react at "turbo speed."

This seems really scary, what would it not do to people if they could instantly rememer all those horribe thinges that might have happened to them. The natural decay of the memeory that we have now, is much more healthy.

Orgasm by email .... 2010 (4, Funny)

Fweeky (41046) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023842)

Well, I suppose it'd make spam a bit less pointless, and imagine if Outlook is still up to it's old tricks..

"I SEND YOU THIS ORGASM IN ORDER TO HAVE YOUR ADVICE"

Off by eight years... (2, Funny)

TekkonKinkreet (237518) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023843)

2010: Homes made in prefabricated modules...guess he's never been to rural North Carolina.

2010: Orgasm by email. Oh, wait, we already have this. I'm reliably informed.

Also 2010: 25% of all TV personalities will be synthetic. Oh, wait...

Hey bein' one a them futurists is easy!

Artificial Life (4, Insightful)

Reality Master 101 (179095) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023852)

This timeline has to be a joke with regard to Artifial Intelligence. Common sense inference by 2005? Artificial life by 2006?

Assuming he's talking about human-level artifical intelligence, in my opinion, he's off by 100 to 200 years. First we need a theory on what common sense and intelligence is. Maybe a few decades after that we might have some primitive implementations.

I believe we're at least 50-100 years away from a theory, and probably much longer than that before we get a practical implementation.

I don't know what this guy's smoking.

I want some of what he's smoking (2)

RedWizzard (192002) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023862)

Even the comparatively mundane predictions are incredibly optimistic: 2002 will see the introduction of 200GB hard drives an P4 laptops yet by 2003 we'll have 11TB credit card sized storage (only an increase by a factor of 55), memory with access time of 1ns (an improvement by a factor of at least 5).

So what (3, Informative)

HanzoSan (251665) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023866)


Michio Kaku has a better timeline to the future in his book Visions.

Anyone who doubts should check out that book at amazon.com

I wont quote whats in the book because i bet i'd be sued for copyright violations or something, but it basically says, Humans will reach nano technology, and quantum revolution within maybe 20-30 years,definately within our lifetimes because silicon wont last beyond 2020.

It goes as far as 2100 and beyond M.Kaku interviewed and speaks to hundreds of other scientists, engineers and people in the know.

Now, as far as if we ever reach the year 2100,thats up to us, so far our society doesnt look like it can handle the technology we are developing, look at the DCMA, and the patent laws, its not like patents will work anymore in the future once technology gets to such a state as described by futurists.

We need a Poll (2)

halo8 (445515) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023879)

WOW!!! this is one of the coolest /. things ive ever read. we need a poll or somthing.. this is awsome.. im still like 1/4 through reading it.. awsome work

I'm out of a job. (4, Interesting)

abigor (540274) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023881)

If most software is being written by other software by 2011, then I am screwed. This is like being a mechanic, hand-crafting your own tools, and then have them take over and start fixing things.

But you know, I really wonder. As software becomes more "macro" in scope, with stable, heavily-featured containers for components, then maybe software will be simple enough to generate automatically, simply by a program assembling many small components together after parsing a description of what it is you want. In fact, this is probably almost possible today -- I could write an XML file which specifies the features I need for my e-commerce server (these security characteristics, those features, the ability to pay this way) and a program could parse it and throw together all the readily available components that are out there now. Of course, tools will need to be written and so forth, but for more general stuff like applications and server software, I wonder if the time will come when we look back on programmers who wrote lines of code in the same way we now look at programmers who punched cards?

Max Headroom (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023886)

Chat Show hosted by robot....
done....Max Headroom....

My own predictions. (5, Funny)

Yorrike (322502) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023897)

Here's a few events I can see happening in the near future:

1000 monkeys at 1000 type writers code perfect operating system: 2010
CowboyNeal becomes world president due to Slashdot poll becoming legally binding: 2014
Mozilla 1.0 released: 2018
Timelines of the Future proven inaccurate: 1823
99% of Slashdot comment submitters use "Preview" button before submitting: 2793

Time travel invented ... 2075 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023901)

If time travel would ever be invented, I think we would have known by now ... :)

I can't believe that from the time we invent time travel to the time we cease to exist, we will never make a mistake bold enough to make people in (for instance) the 21 century realize time travel will once be possible...

Immortality (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 12 years ago | (#3023905)

well, I hope no one shuts off the power once I move into cyberspace, kinda takes the immortal out of immortality

Sounds like Age of Spiritual Machines (2)

evilned (146392) | more than 12 years ago | (#3023919)

lets see, we have a futurist who got lucky and predicted near future stuff pretty well, i.e. Age of rational machines) and then decides to try a little more. Sounds like a Ray Kurzweil book I read a couple of years ago, the Age of Spiritual Machines.

The major problem I see with these futurists saying that we will move so fast in the next hudred years is the capacity of humans to change that quickly and handle the power that it will give us. At some point augmenting humans directly, either through genetics or cybernetics will be nessecary, and I cant see us handling it well. We cant agree on what to do with cloning or fetal cell use, and these are the beginning of the augmentation process.
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