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Cringley Asking for 12 Month Predictions

CmdrTaco posted more than 11 years ago | from the roll-out-the-crystal-ball dept.

News 390

sckienle writes "Robert X. Cringely is asking in his pulpit this week for help in determining what's going to happen in the tech industry in the next 12 months." I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape. This will occur in January. For the rest of the year, technology will take a vacation.

cancel ×

390 comments

Zindell (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432876)

David Zindell is the best author ever.

This is not (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432882)

your father's first post.

And FP to you.

Yeah right! (5, Funny)

Unknown Bovine Group (462144) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432891)

Anybody with any real insight into the technology of the coming year won't post it to Cringley or Slashdot, they'll run out and get a patent.

Join the fun! patent the obvious next step and sue, sue, sue!

Patent sueing (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432917)

Maybe we should patent the idea of sueing and the sue everyone for stealing our idea!!!

Two words: (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432940)

Prior Art

Three Words (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432894)

Developers Developers Developers

Re:Three Words (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433038)

I. (pant) Love. (pant) This. (pant) Company. (pant) Yeah! (collapse)

only 3? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433140)

I tried reproducing Ballmer's "speech" more accurately but I keep hitting the lameness filter :-/

pf (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432895)

pf again!!!!!

Quick! (0, Troll)

Zelet (515452) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432901)

Somebody mod the article summary up as funny!

Re:Quick! (0, Offtopic)

Zelet (515452) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432990)

I'm a troll for thinking that the article summary was funny? I was laughing my ass off after I read that.

Please modderators... don't be so quick to judge.

I don't need the carma.. but fuck off anyway.

February (2, Insightful)

Santos L. Halper (591801) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432903)

Microsoft will claim that it is going to crush Linux.

Re:February (1)

dankwa (615511) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433106)

"Microsoft will claim that it is going to crush Linux" Nope! On the contrary, Microsoft, due to the inevitable SURGE of the linux platform will shock?, surprise? etc... the Open Source environment and release a product or more for the linux platform to make more $Microsoftix$. kt

Cringley Category (5, Insightful)

gorsh (75930) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432905)

I know it's been asked before, but since it seems like Slashdot posts a news story about the Cringely column every week, there's no good reason these stories don't belong in their own category, as I'm sure many readers already read these on their own every week and don't need to be reminded of it.

Ars-Fartsica (0, Offtopic)

einstein (10761) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432906)

I predict that Ars-Fartsica will have a comment modded up +5 in this article
--

I wanna know... (0)

g0bshiTe (596213) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432908)

When the robot I can buy to send to work in my place for me will be on the market!

Re:I wanna know... (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432968)

They're called Mexicans, and they're practically free.

Re:I wanna know... (4, Insightful)

RebelTycoon (584591) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432983)

There already are... Just ask the:
- Automotive industry
- Dock workers
- anything with manufacturing that can't be done cheaper in the 3rd world.

If you can buy a robot to send to work, then your boss can buy a robot to save you having to buy one.

Re:I wanna know... (0)

g0bshiTe (596213) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433082)

DoH!!!

Robots (3, Funny)

SVDave (231875) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432918)

I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape. This will occur in January.

Not surprising. My new robot [irobot.com] is already chasing my cat around the living room.

Re:Robots (1)

buzzdecafe (583889) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433024)

Manhunting robots are no match for Vladimir Kramnik [brainsinbahrain.com] !

A real hookup at a slashdot.meetup.com (5, Funny)

Hairy_Potter (219096) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432919)

The tech world was shattered today by the news that two members of the open source weblog Slashdot hooked up at a slashdot.meetup.com meeting.

Anonymously speaking, the female slashddotter was surprised that the two had so much in common "He likes anime, and thought I looked so good in my Sailor Moon cosplay, I was charmed. I was so charmed, he charmed me out of that suit later that night, giggle".

The male slashdotter commented "Well, I was 23 and a virgin, and spending the night recompiling RedHat 8.0 did not appeal to me. I was sure about *****, she was a little chunky, but when I saw that she came out of the ladies room, and not the mens, I knew she was a real women. I think we'll have sex again."

That's your proof?!? (3, Funny)

burgburgburg (574866) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433029)

..when I saw that she came out of the ladies room, and not the mens, I knew she was a real women.

Why do I see M. Butterfly II written all over this?

Mac OS X software to copy DVDs (5, Interesting)

lamz (60321) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432921)

I predict that sometime in the next 12 months, someone will release software that lets Mac OS X users make perfect copies of DVDs. Since OS X is enough under the 'radar' of the MS-lovin' types, they don't notice until millions of people get a copy of the application.

Re:Mac OS X software to copy DVDs (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433153)

I can just see Apple going against the MPAA and Hollywood. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you. I won't even mention the techincal limitations of trying to copy a DVD to a standard DVD-R. I also won't mention the fact that this is much more likely to happen in the open source community long before any Apple developer (is there such a thing beside Adobe and Microsoft) does it.

Re:Mac OS X software to copy DVDs (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433172)

Then I predict that in 13 months the MPAA will release a lawsuit so mighty that Apple becomes a subsidiary of Vivendi Entertainment.

Tyranny of inaction... (4, Insightful)

Chocky2 (99588) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432932)

Too many people have been so burned in the last few years that there's virtually no investment forthcoming in anything remotely blue-sky. If it's not safe and can't turn a profit in the short term, nobody want's to know. We're doing a lot in the broadband wireless direction, of vital long-term importance, but in the short term there's negligible buy-in :(

The over-caution is only going to prolong the depression, but for many people there's no alternative -- R&D is going to be hurting for better part of a decade.

Re:Tyranny of inaction... (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433028)

nobody want's to know

And exactly what letters are you removing by using the apostrophe in "want's"? Or are you signalling possession, but then, that doesn't make sense either, does it?

Could it be that you're just a moron? My prediction is that tech-dom will become more infested with idiots like you, until everyone decides to kill all the dr0ks.

Re:Tyranny of inaction... (1)

Chocky2 (99588) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433118)

Sheesh... and my prediction is that /. will become more infested with idiots like you, until everyone decides to kill all the anonymous cowards.

Humblest apologies for the offending tpyo. Now go away, tidy your bedroom and wipe the drool off your chin.

(must remember to stop feeding the trolls...)

Major war - RIAA/MPAA vs Usenet (5, Interesting)

bbk (33798) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432934)

I wonder why this hasn't happened earlier - I think someone evil is finally going to notice that Usenet is 95% warez/moviez, and go after the big companies that run Usenet servers. This will probably happen after someone makes a tool that allows for easy use of Usenet, ie, a "download, unpar, unrar" tool, that keeps track of binary groups.

BBK

Re:Major war - RIAA/MPAA vs Usenet (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433109)

I wonder how these stupid posts get modded up. Who are they going to sue? There are thousands of news servers throughout the world. They may be able to fight some of the big ones but other servers will just pop up to replace them. As for the tool, I am pretty sure that there is already something like that out there. I personally Newsbin Pro which does everything but unrar. There is no such thing "unpar" anyway. Par files are just parity files that help rebuild missing rar files.

Re:Major war - RIAA/MPAA vs Usenet (3, Informative)

Reality Master 101 (179095) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433164)

Who are they going to sue?

Actually, Usenet would be trivial to attack. You just attack the people posting movies or music. It's not that hard to track down where a posting is coming from, unless you use anonymous reposters. And they're aren't many of those, particularly ones that let you funnel gigabytes of data through them.

Law enforcement has already dropped the hammer on a lot of child porn posters.

Re:Major war - RIAA/MPAA vs Usenet (5, Funny)

dildatron (611498) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433124)

It might happen after someone at slashdot posts information that Usenet is 95% warez/movies! Thanks for notifying the evil doers, buddy.

Sticks and Stones the Weapons of Choice (0, Offtopic)

FreeUser (11483) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433131)

I wonder why this hasn't happened earlier - I think someone evil is finally going to notice that Usenet is 95% warez/moviez, and go after the big companies that run Usenet servers. This will probably happen after someone makes a tool that allows for easy use of Usenet, ie, a "download, unpar, unrar" tool, that keeps track of binary groups.

You mean, like pan [rebelbase.com] ?

I think the battle you speak of will heat up, and the future for free thought may be a very bleak one indeed.

On a completely different note, it would not surprise me at all, in light of congresses latest whorish display of its ability to move in contortions suggestive of a complete lack of backbone in granting president Baby Bush with a blank check for mayhem and idiocy, we didn't find ourselves embroiled in a war by this time next year that is far bigger, and far uglier, than we ever intended.

It would only surprise me a little if by this time next year we have been reduced to fighting this war with sticks and stones, however, a few more years of this sort of leadership and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

My prediction on next years technical innovation: The C.L.U.B. Mark I and the S.T.I.C.K./2003 as the state of the art in human weaponry, deployed far and wide and stockpiled in every home.

Re:Major war - RIAA/MPAA vs Usenet (5, Insightful)

Reality Master 101 (179095) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433139)

I wonder why this hasn't happened earlier

I'll tell you why -- and it's a good lesson to understand about this battle.

The music industry doesn't care about shutting down every avenue of music trading, they care about music trading that is easy to use by normal people. Napster was the first application that made anonymous music trading easy to use by anyone. Usenet is NEVER going to be used by normal people, because there's no possibility for an instantaneous "search and download" capability.

Eating our *what*? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432936)

I stopped reading after "Eating our Seed." I don't want anything to do with that.

I predict LNUX will die (1, Troll)

Pave Low (566880) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432939)

today's activities notwithstanding, VA Linux is headed for the tubes. [yahoo.com]

Once this POS hits bankruptcy, the Linux as Microsoft-beater movement will be over.

(This ia a real prediction, not a troll).

Re:I predict LNUX will die (2, Informative)

NineNine (235196) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432999)

LNUX *will* die in the next year... no question about that, but Linux won't die. It's gonna remain in the background as a sturdy little OS used on various servers.

The future of *BSD (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432946)

It is official; Netcraft now confirms: *BSD is dying

One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered *BSD community when IDC confirmed that *BSD market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that *BSD has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. *BSD is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last [samag.com] [samag.com] in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking test.

You don't need to be a Kreskin [amazingkreskin.com] [amazingkreskin.com] to predict *BSD's future. The hand writing is on the wall: *BSD faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for *BSD because *BSD is dying. Things are looking very bad for *BSD. As many of us are already aware, *BSD continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.

FreeBSD is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time FreeBSD developers Jordan Hubbard and Mike Smith only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: FreeBSD is dying.

Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.

OpenBSD leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of OpenBSD. How many users of NetBSD are there? Let's see. The number of OpenBSD versus NetBSD posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about 7000/5 = 1400 NetBSD users. BSD/OS posts on Usenet are about half of the volume of NetBSD posts. Therefore there are about 700 users of BSD/OS. A recent article put FreeBSD at about 80 percent of the *BSD market. Therefore there are (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 FreeBSD users. This is consistent with the number of FreeBSD Usenet posts.

Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, FreeBSD went out of business and was taken over by BSDI who sell another troubled OS. Now BSDI is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.

All major surveys show that *BSD has steadily declined in market share. *BSD is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If *BSD is to survive at all it will be among OS dilettante dabblers. *BSD continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time. For all practical purposes, *BSD is dead.

Fact: *BSD is dying

The End of FreeBSD

[eds note: in the following text, former FreeBSD developer Mike Smith gives his reasons for abandoning FreeBSD]

When I stood for election to the FreeBSD core team nearly two years ago, many of you will recall that it was after a long series of debates during which I maintained that too much organisation, too many rules and too much formality would be a bad thing for the project.

Today, as I read the latest discussions on the future of the FreeBSD project, I see the same problem; a few new faces and many of the old going over the same tired arguments and suggesting variations on the same worthless schemes. Frankly I'm sick of it.

FreeBSD used to be fun. It used to be about doing things the right way. It used to be something that you could sink your teeth into when the mundane chores of programming for a living got you down. It was something cool and exciting; a way to spend your spare time on an endeavour you loved that was at the same time wholesome and worthwhile.

It's not anymore. It's about bylaws and committees and reports and milestones, telling others what to do and doing what you're told. It's about who can rant the longest or shout the loudest or mislead the most people into a bloc in order to legitimise doing what they think is best. Individuals notwithstanding, the project as a whole has lost track of where it's going, and has instead become obsessed with process and mechanics.

So I'm leaving core. I don't want to feel like I should be "doing something" about a project that has lost interest in having something done for it. I don't have the energy to fight what has clearly become a losing battle; I have a life to live and a job to keep, and I won't achieve any of the goals I personally consider worthwhile if I remain obligated to care for the project.

Discussion

I'm sure that I've offended some people already; I'm sure that by the time I'm done here, I'll have offended more. If you feel a need to play to the crowd in your replies rather than make a sincere effort to address the problems I'm discussing here, please do us the courtesy of playing your politics openly.

From a technical perspective, the project faces a set of challenges that significantly outstrips our ability to deliver. Some of the resources that we need to address these challenges are tied up in the fruitless metadiscussions that have raged since we made the mistake of electing officers. Others have left in disgust, or been driven out by the culture of abuse and distraction that has grown up since then. More may well remain available to recruitment, but while the project is busy infighting our chances for successful outreach are sorely diminished.

There's no simple solution to this. For the project to move forward, one or the other of the warring philosophies must win out; either the project returns to its laid-back roots and gets on with the work, or it transforms into a super-organised engineering project and executes a brilliant plan to deliver what, ultimately, we all know we want.

Whatever path is chosen, whatever balance is struck, the choosing and the striking are the important parts. The current indecision and endless conflict are incompatible with any sort of progress.

Trying to dissect the above is far beyond the scope of any parting shot, no matter how distended. All I can really ask of you all is to let go of the minutiae for a moment and take a look at the big picture. What is the ultimate goal here? How can we get there with as little overhead as possible? How would you like to be treated by your fellow travellers?

Shouts

To the Slashdot "BSD is dying" crowd - big deal. Death is part of the cycle; take a look at your soft, pallid bodies and consider that right this very moment, parts of you are dying. See? It's not so bad.

To the bulk of the FreeBSD committerbase and the developer community at large - keep your eyes on the real goals. It's when you get distracted by the politickers that they sideline you. The tireless work that you perform keeping the system clean and building is what provides the platform for the obsessives and the prima donnas to have their moments in the sun. In the end, we need you all; in order to go forwards we must first avoid going backwards.

To the paranoid conspiracy theorists - yes, I work for Apple too. No, my resignation wasn't on Steve's direct orders, or in any way related to work I'm doing, may do, may not do, or indeed what was in the tea I had at lunchtime today. It's about real problems that the project faces, real problems that the project has brought upon itself. You can't escape them by inventing excuses about outside influence, the problem stems from within.

To the politically obsessed - give it a break, if you can. No, the project isn't a lemonade stand anymore, but it's not a world-spanning corporate juggernaut either and some of the more grandiose visions going around are in need of a solid dose of reality. Keep it simple, stupid.

To the grandstanders, the prima donnas, and anyone that thinks that they can hold the project to ransom for their own agenda - give it a break, if you can. When the current core were elected, we took a conscious stand against vigorous sanctions, and some of you have exploited that. A new core is going to have to decide whether to repeat this mistake or get tough. I hope they learn from our errors.

Future

I started work on FreeBSD because it was fun. If I'm going to continue, it has to be fun again. There are things I still feel obligated to do, and with any luck I'll find the time to meet those obligations.

However I don't feel an obligation to get involved in the political mess the project is in right now. I tried, I burnt out. I don't feel that my efforts were worthwhile. So I won't be standing for election, I won't be shouting from the sidelines, and I probably won't vote in the next round of ballots.

You could say I'm packing up my toys. I'm not going home just yet, but I'm not going to play unless you can work out how to make the project somewhere fun to be again.

--

To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. -- Theodore Roosevelt

Where is technology going? (5, Funny)

Marco_polo (160898) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432947)

in the next 12 months, I predict

1) Fully functional computerized Voting (e-chad)
2) Linux on the desktop!
3) IIS releases a fully secure, bug-free version!
4) BEOS Makes a stunning comeback!
5) Bionics are introduced widely(and banned by the NFL, MLB still pending)
6) The DMCA is overturned in the supreme court!
7) BLOG's widely viewed as the thing to go on the 'net
8) AOL Version 9, 10, 11, and 12
9) Apple releases the new iMac - in new scratch n' sniff colors
10) Slashdot wins pulitzer prize for news journalism!

Re:Where is technology going? (1)

MrFredBloggs (529276) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432985)

11)....
12)Profit!!

Sorry, there's no sign of a profit in the tech industry in the coming 12 months. I was joking.

Re:Where is technology going? (1)

Trashman (3003) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433103)

does anyone know where this idiom came from? I've seen it few times now and it's starting to bug me.

Re:Where is technology going? (1)

MrFredBloggs (529276) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433149)

It's annoying, isn't it. Almost as annoying as `grok` and `USIan`.

I think it's something to do with open source, and trying to profit from it. It'll never happen - its just a cheap way of getting hold of software. As long as the people writing it don't expect to profit from it, then I guess everybody's happy.

Re:Where is technology going? (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433157)

does anyone know where this idiom came from?

From a southpark episode.

Re:Where is technology going? (1)

LordNimon (85072) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433159)

A Southpark episode.

Re:Where is technology going? (1, Offtopic)

dildatron (611498) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433166)

nice try troll. but i refuse to bite. with a slashdot id of 30003 you had damn well better know where it comes from.

Re:Where is technology going? (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433041)

3) IIS releases a fully secure, bug-free version!

I can't wait to see how MS trys to make money selling apache.

hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape (1)

MrFredBloggs (529276) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432948)

At least they'll be able to spell 'apocalyptic'!

the future... (5, Funny)

User 956 (568564) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432953)

I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape.

Yes, but only as retribution for the unrelenting barrage of spelling errors.

More of the same (5, Funny)

L. VeGas (580015) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432954)

We will continue our efforts to supplant staples, but glue will continue to be a stong player.

Oh sorry, I thought you said tack industry.

two words (1)

ReidMaynard (161608) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432956)

more layoffs

WOO HOO (1)

ReidMaynard (161608) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433129)

my prediction is already comming true!

More Layoffs at Lucent [yahoo.com]

Take over the world? (3, Funny)

TheGreenLantern (537864) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432958)

I expect that robots will take over the world...

Fool. Everyone knows that it is really tornados that will take over the world.

Warning: Persons denying the existance of tornados may in fact be tornados themselves.

Ultimate Japanese toilet is achieved (5, Funny)

burgburgburg (574866) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432960)

Japanese toilet technology [nytimes.com] will advance to the point that nobody has a reason for ever leaving. Weeks later, people will start asking, "Hey, have you seen the Japanese lately?".

Re:Ultimate Japanese toilet is achieved (1)

EvilBudMan (588716) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433150)

Yea,

The electric corn cob will finally be perfected.

Re:Ultimate Japanese toilet is achieved (3, Informative)

krugdm (322700) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433173)

...But in a country with the demographics of Florida, the real growth will be medical toilets linked to the Internet...

In a suprising move, I predict Disney rises to power and causes Florida to seceed from the Union, naming the new country "The United State of Mickey".

Robots (3, Funny)

Twirlip of the Mists (615030) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432970)

I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape.

I can't find an exact transcript on the web, so I have to paraphrase the "Space" episode of News Radio.
Joe: Who won the World Series?


Beth: Which one?

Joe: All of em!

Beth: Well, the Cardinals...

Joe: Called it.

Beth: Then the Red Sox...

Joe: Called it.

Beth: Then it was the robots... robots... robots, robots, robots...
See, 'cause robots had taken over the world while Joe was in hibernation... and the baseball... ha! That show cracks me up.

In the next 12 minutes... (2)

Xpilot (117961) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432971)

...there'll a few dozen posts by slashdotters stating how they are wondering what "post-apocolyptic" means. Looks a like typo, but it ends up sounding naughty.

Not much really. (4, Interesting)

snatchitup (466222) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432973)

Sub $25 Wireless networking setup, including router and card.

No major new operating system.

-------
Chickens will come home to roost. IT departments will continue to try and recoup their huge investments in technology made
during the boom.
-------
The year of picking up the pieces and moving on....
-------

Actually, Hobby Robotic development will make great strides with several new product announcements all which will come out at an affordable price in 2004.

There's so much room for extending upon the Lego Mindstorms concept and product.

What about last years predictions? (5, Interesting)

gpinzone (531794) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432974)

Let's see how close he was... Anyone got a link?

Re:What about last years predictions? (5, Informative)

dildatron (611498) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433148)

here's his 2002 [infoworld.com] predictions.

Microsoft (2)

3-State Bit (225583) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432975)

will buy Apple, and one third [slashdot.org] of the slashbots of the world will have a collective heart attack.

(and don't think it can't happen - $40 billion is nothing to sneeze at disdainfully)

Re:Microsoft (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433169)

They have already bought as much of Apple as they can while preserving the illusion that they are not a Monopoly.

Hold Envelope to forehead (5, Insightful)

Matey-O (518004) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432977)

I predict a large company will make an existing product smaller, and double the number of features for 90% of the current price.

I also predict that 99% of the people that BUY that product will be unaware that those features exist and consequently not use them.

I preduct the people least likely to use those features will buy that product because 'It's pretty'.

This year (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4432981)

Trollaxor.com will return!!!............I wish.

What already happens? (5, Interesting)

phorm (591458) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432991)

what's going to happen in the tech industry in the next 12 months

More than likely, a lot of what is happening already, just in a slight variation.

Manufacturers of video cards, CPU's etc will bring out something that's newer, faster, etc, touting it over the competion. The CPU may be faster, but will be held down by the motherboard/peripheral bottleneck. To some extent the same will apply to the video card.

Meanwhile, large companies will be looking for ways to take down users pirating their wares, and pirates will be looking for better/different ways to exchange those wares and or crack them.

Hammer may come out, but again, for those who aren't currently hitting the limits of their PC's it's not really such a big deal.

Summary: Sold old stuff, new marketing, somewhat faster.
Oh, and chances are /. will repost many of the articles from today in the next several months (sorry, had to say it) :-)

Skynet isn't due for another 27 years, in 2029, so nothing really exciting there - phorm

Post Apocalyptic Landscape (2)

namespan (225296) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432992)

Does this refer to slashdot posts?

This isn't so hard (1)

Linuxthess (529239) | more than 11 years ago | (#4432993)

CmdrTaco will be saving the very best of them for April 1st.

--------

what will REALLY happen (0)

incripshin (580256) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433010)

You didn't hear this from me, but I've got word that the music and movie industries will buy the Internet. No joke.

Status Quo (1)

gurnb (80987) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433021)

Linux will still not be ready for Joe Public as a viable desktop solution.
Microsoft will still be Microsoft.
PS2 vs. XBox debates will still rage on with the added benefit of PS3 on the horrizon.
HALO 2 will finally be released (maybe)
MP3 will still be the bain of every music company.

And nothing will mean a hill of beans if some guy in a towel, living in a giant box of kitty liter drop a nuclear/bio bomb anywhere on this planet.

Just my .02

What's going to happen? (5, Insightful)

doomy (7461) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433022)

Well, the obvious choises are .. XP 2 or 2003, Mandrake/Redhat Z (where Z>7), OS X.A (Where A>1).

Now the serious stuff.

As Cringley likes to say Wifi would be more wide spread, I believe 802.11g would come out and outdate all other wireless lan technologies. Along with that, we'd see increasing number of community free wireless networks (That might or might not be connected to the Net).

America would skip the whole little-phone-philia, instead we'd be into bigger more bulky gadgets. I believe, the PDA's would get better batteries and thus would slowly start replacing phones (probably the biz ppl and young kids first).

Satellite based radio's would die and we'd see some nice shows on the sky when they fall out (just like the Iradium). This means Sirrus and XM. The cause for this would be better compression technologies and the recent opening of a spread spectrum by FCC that lets higher bandwith be sent over the airwaves. Stations would start to pump out studio (not cd as a /. story mentioned) quality audio out soon.

We'll also see a revival of the Dot com like companies, but this would be a more apprehensive revial, companies would be more conservative and we'd see most invetment into technology related with Games (console) and Porn. The old sex and violence.

IPV6 would be postponned and in return we'd see the invention of more and more firewalling/masqurading gadgets, routers would come firewalling/masqurading built in, people would start living within private networks.

Laws would be passed to ban P2P and such similar technologies, but these laws could not be enforced due to jurastiction issues and technology issues. The ppl who'd get hurt in the end would be those sharing files, they might get raided and sentenced. Those who make these software would be out of harms way. We'd see a reduction in the amount of spy ware due to community backlash.

Superman hype would create more superman games and gadgets. (Seriously).

We'll go on war, but our military research facilities would create enough products to stimulate the stangnent information market. Even though this technology would come into the commerical maket 25 years from the time it's created.

We'd see a decline in movie goers... DVD's would be released region free, but with hardware copyright devices.

Slashdot would continue to post these stories. And Cringley would be just himself and ranting like this.

Slashdot trolls will adapt (4, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433026)

"Stephen King dead at 54" trolls will need to be updated to "... dead at 55"

"BSD is dying" posts will continue unaltered.

What about Natalie Portman? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433069)

Will she still be petrified with hot grits down her pants while clicking on the link to goatse.cx? Especially if there is a beowolf cluster?

A vacation? (2)

doc_traig (453913) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433034)

I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape. This will occur in January. For the rest of the year, technology will take a vacation.

Technology doesn't take vacations. Considering the post-apololyptic conditions, I expect we'll discover stone and then bronze weapons, the making coats from animal skins, and the Atari 800.

- DDT

The "tech industry" (2, Troll)

PhysicsGenius (565228) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433035)

If we are allowed to include the science industry as well, here are my predictions:

  • Cold fusion will continue to gain acceptance among more and more "mainstream" physicists (it's at about 30% acceptance now)
  • 12 months puts us in late 2003, right before the next election. Hopefully Bush, in need of popular support, will finally stand up to the big pharm companies and tell the FAA to approve so-called "alternative medicines" which have been languishing. Most of those herbal remedies are clinically proven but are being suppressed.
  • As the economy continues to worsen, companies will begin to realize that they don't need to put up with arrogant, socially-inept programmers who live at the bottom of the food chain. Especially those that don't have any actual experience. On the downside, this means more of them will be posting here.
  • I expect ther to be several improvements in the Linux arena. For instance, I understand Linus Wall is intending to release a version of Perl that doesn't require that confusing CPAN stuff and uses regular DLLs like every other language in the universe.
  • Another Linux improvement is likely to be the inclusion of optically-differentiated subbuses on the front end buffer array to increase volatility throughput.

Another one: weblog owners get sued (1)

Hairy_Potter (219096) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433056)

for breach on contract, when one after another, popular weblogs that offer subscriptions go down due to scaling problems or cashflow problems.

Good point (1, Troll)

PhysicsGenius (565228) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433113)

Also, when it is found that a lot of these scaling problems could have been fixed by switching to proven Enterprise software instead of stuff they found on the Internet, it will lead to a revolution in the software industry. Engineering licenses and governmental oversight (code inspectors), while a little onerous at first, improve the level of coding worldwide, saving millions of lives and dollars.

Here are my predictions (4, Insightful)

Kenneth Stephen (1950) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433036)

In no particular order :

1. Ph.d's will start flipping burgers again to survive while desperately hunting for a buyer for their houses. (Yes, I know for a fact this actually happened in the early nineties when IBM decimated its plant in Kingston, NY).

2. Folks who had the idea of waiting out the tech downturn by going to college are going to graduate only to find out that the tech downturn isnt over yet. Worse still, now they have to pay off loans.

3. All challenges to the DMCA, Copright laws, etc are going to be beaten down. Consumers will have no rights whatsoever unless they all incorporate themselves.

4. Symptomatic treatments of security will keep increasing. This is what I refer to as the treatment of brain tumours by prescribing aspirin. For example, the banning of nail clippers and other small personal items on flights when it is the mental state of the terrorist that is the true danger - not the everyday personal effects that can be transformed into weapons.

in 12 months... (1)

RebelTycoon (584591) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433037)

This story will be on Slashdot again...

I predict that now the .Com bomb has finally exploded, fewer geeks will be having sex...

Hookers can be expensive. Especially ones that will dress up like Japanese schoolgirls.

I think what will happen is (2, Insightful)

JeanBaptiste (537955) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433039)

the tech industry will be driven mostly by the worlds current events. More emphasis on security, but aside from that, unless you can predict who is going to bomb who next...

Robots takle over the world? (1)

briaman (564586) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433042)

Has some-one been leaking MS Internal Memo's again?

Cellphones (5, Funny)

jackal! (88105) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433045)

Cellphones will continue to get cooler, have more options, do more things, have more features, make your life even better.

Everyone will continue to not really care.

Re:Cellphones (1)

NineNine (235196) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433077)

... except for the Japanese, of course.

but... (1)

gulltop (611470) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433048)

you forgot the 3 laws of robotic !

Translation: (5, Funny)

commonchaos (309500) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433050)

Is your company doing especially well? Are there sectors that are especially exciting, where products are bubbling to the surface and companies feel like they are about to show the world just how good they are? Tell me about it.

Translation:

My portfolio isn't doing so well. Anybody mind helping me out here?

W2K (2)

NineNine (235196) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433053)

My guess is that a lot of major companies will settle into Windows 200, and that it'll be permanent. They'll settle on that as a platform, and not move to XP. It's just too expensive to keep moving, and W2K finally really works, and works really well. We'll start to see companies settling there and actually USING a Windows product for years at a time like they do with *nixes now, as opposed to the annual upgrade that we've seen for the past 10 years.

Forget the next 12 months.. (5, Funny)

grub (11606) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433060)


I'm still waiting for my Flying Car from the year 2000..

bio-tech (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4433066)

in the next 36 months or less

Very fast DNA sequencing, someone has produced a decice that sequencies DNA by measuring the energy as it splits.

Fast protiens sequensing for medical research using techniques developed by the Nobel Prize for Chemistry winners.

In the Next 10 years, combining the two.

A little black box (1)

supergiovane (606385) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433067)

Maybe Sir Clive Sinclair will come back and amaze us with a new, shiny little black computer with rubber keys which will smash Win, OSX and Linux into oblivion?

When ... (2)

halftrack (454203) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433079)

Winter in Redmond

Linux (2, Interesting)

blackmonday (607916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433083)

In the next 12 months I see the arrival of *the* Linux Home Desktop Distro. I have no clue as to who will provide it, but the media is going to love it, the schools will love it, I will love it, and mostly everyone on Slashdot will hate it.

kuro5hin.org (3, Funny)

wiredog (43288) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433090)

Will stay up for more than 5 minutes. People will stop bitching about the slowness of the searches. No one will say "resection, MLP". Rusty will actually be able to earn a living from the place.

And pigs will be seen circling overhead.

Predictions (2, Interesting)

moc.tfosorcimgllib (602636) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433104)

Copyright law will still be here, with the 20 year extension.

DRM will pass, and start to be implemented in technology, causing major problems to the tech industry.

Someone major in the Linux community will go to a great deal of trouble to Break the DMCA, and circumvent the mandatory DRM. They will do this in a public arena, and be arrested. People will protest, but they will still be in jail in 12 months.

Computers connecting to the internet must have some sort of DRM installed in their hardware. This will cause everyone to upgrade their hardware. This will raise the tech sector out of it's slump. This will also register everyone to a computer.

Some unfounded/unknown company (most likely a small startup) will put together a very inexpensive upgrade kit to bring your current computer into compliance with DRM. This company will make the founders millionaires overnight. They will be filthy rich at the end of this 12 months.

I will drink several beers, sodas, and eat some pizza, not in that particular order.

Commerzbank in germany will come very close to collapsing, bringing the european market down, the dollar and american tech sector will become stronger from this.

Lawn-mowing robots and will quickly find their ways into american yards, faster than cellphones. Their prices will fall to equal that of a riding mower. People will purchase them as they get to be very good quality.

HP will fire Fiona
Televisions, affected by DRM as well, will set a time when people must switch to HDTV recievers. There will again be a company that comes out with conversion kits.

An anonymous coward on slashdot will be moderated as a troll.

Those are my predictions for the forthcoming year! Have a mysteriously spooktacular friday!

I see.. well nothing much. (5, Interesting)

miffo.swe (547642) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433114)

First of all the slump in the overall economy will stop any significant new technologies in their crib. If current situation remains the only thing corporations havent saved money on is the IT departments. After they sacked half their staff and factories only IT and management is left to do any larger savings on. They will go after IT and not management for cost cuts. I presume that the biggest IT companies will have a hard time to withstand their high earnings if that will be the case.

On the good side this would open up a new area of buisiness that i think would thrive. Companies like IBM that saves money for their customers will be very popular among corporations.

New computer hardware wont be released with the same pace if no one is buying it. The current pace on uppgrades has been predicted to level off for quite some time now and its about time. At some point hardware is up to par with the tasks performed by 90% of people. The rest 10% cant hold the upgrade pace up by themselves.

A new wave of copyrighted... (1)

ebuck (585470) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433119)

Calendars.

My predictions (5, Funny)

Xeger (20906) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433132)

1) In a surprise move, the Taliban will announce its hostile takeover of the Disney corporation. The company's long-standing "no facial hair" policy will be replaced by a "mandatory beard" policy and animators will immediately commence work on a new flagship character, Mullah Mouse.

2) Nevada, Arizona and British Columbia will all pass legislation legalizing marijuana, prompting Bush to name them as part of the "axis of evil" and authorize a retaliatory nuclear strike.

3) RIAA will introduce a surgical throat implant that that causes people to gag and choke when they try to hum or sing copyrighted music. Marketing the device as the "iMusicFreedomSexChoicePod," they will offer it through major chain stores for $99 for a limited time only, while supplies last. After November, the price will increase to $399.

and, finally

4) Sometime in August, independent polls will indicate that Slashdot's daily readership has surpassed that of the New York Times, Washington Post and USA Today combined. In response to this market pressure, all major print dailies will target a 1st grade reading level. Headlines such as "Lame Senator Says He's Rubber, Opponent Is Glue" and "Superfund Site Smells Like Total Ass" will abound.

Jobs (4, Interesting)

ksplatter (573000) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433141)

I'll lose my software engineering job and won't have enough money to buy any technology. Therefore I won't really give a rats ass!

Death of Metacity (2, Interesting)

scotch (102596) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433156)

My prediction: Gnome and redhat and everyone else will finally get a clue and get rid of the piece of crap known as metacity. I've read the debates and the intent, but if the author thinks that my ability to make the window manager useable is "crackrock" - he's the one that has been smoking too much of it.

How do I turn off opaque move in metacity? Because its slow to the point of unusable on my system. Oh, I guess that's "crackrock"

How do I bind keys to things I want to do like maximize vertically? Oh I guess the poor newbies can't understand what "vertically" means. Let's just fuck all the users who've been using Linux and Redhat for years for these mythical infantile newbies. I guess vertical and horizontal maximiation are "crack rock"

How do bind to shell commands so I can use those stupid multimedia buttons on my computer for something useful, like controlling xmms? The keybinding available in metacity are just a joke. Thanks god they gave me "take a screen shot" though.

Prediciton: sawfish is back in 2003.

My 12 month predictions (5, Funny)

Fizzlewhiff (256410) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433174)

There will be several new point releases of KDE centered mainly around look and feel rather than actual features.

Oracle 9i will be discovered to be breakable and Larry Ellison's unbreakable ego will become broken.

Steve Jobs sued when someone opens their eMac to better lick the "lickable" Aqua interface and fries themself when they discharge the monitor's capacitor.

Jon Katz returns to Slashdot after figuring out yet another way to squeeze in a plug of his book about dogs in an editorial.

Mozilla Project sued by Geiko's talking Geko over trademarks citing "confused public trying to reskin him to look like Ximian monkey."

RMS changes his name to GNU/RMS.

Nortel (5, Funny)

s20451 (410424) | more than 11 years ago | (#4433176)

I predict that my Nortel stock [yahoo.com] will continue to be worth the square root of fuck all, after a reverse stock split to avoid delisting.
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