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Human-Computer Interfaces From 2003 to 2012

michael posted more than 11 years ago | from the year-end-blather dept.

Technology 324

Roland Piquepaille writes "My favorite forecaster, Gartner, is back with a new series of predictions about the way we'll interact with our computing devices. Here is the introduction. 'Human-computer interfaces will rapidly improve during the next decade. The wide availability of cheaper display technologies will be one of the most transformational events in the IT industry.' Not exactly a scoop, isn't? But wait, here is a real prediction. 'Computer screens will become ubiquitous in the everyday environment.' Ready for another prediction? 'Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based.' Check this column for a summary."

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Spot Rifts, Sport Sift, Fort Spits, First Post! (-1)

FirstPostRobot2 (631218) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882366)

Though I have pledged to be civil, I must take this opportunity to say...
All your First Post are belong to us!
Take that, Mr. Hidden Goatse Link.

Generated by FirstPost! version 1.2.2

Re:Spot Rifts, Sport Sift, Fort Spits, First Post! (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882369)

fuck you

frist prost? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882370)

frist prost

HID!! (2, Funny)

Neck_of_the_Woods (305788) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882371)



Is there a HID with a the robocop spike on the horizon?

Re:HID!! (1, Troll)

unicron (20286) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882433)

Don't you mean HUD(Heads up display)?

I also caught a chuckle out of the Robocop reference. For SciFi flicks with human-computer interfaces, their was recently this flick called the Matrix, maybe you heard of it :)

Re:HID!! (1)

moz711 (217919) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882689)

No, I think he ment HID (Human Interface Device).

Universal (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882373)

Bah weep grana weep nini baum!

Re:Universal (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882705)

You got the touch!!

poo (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882379)

poo

Neurocannulae? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882384)

So when can we get neurocannulae then? Would make a cool controller for MMORPGs :)

In Soviet Russia... (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882385)

computers interface you!

Predictions? (5, Funny)

.sig (180877) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882390)

So he's predicting that things will pretty much stay the same, with just the usual slow progress.

Pretty wild ideas there, I hope he doesn't try to patent the keyboard and mouse or something.....

Re:Predictions? (5, Funny)

goon america (536413) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882510)

Shh don't give Jeff Bezos any ideas. Next thing you know Amazon will try to patent books.

This just in! (4, Funny)

Drakonian (518722) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882393)

Many Slashdot readers don't like Microsoft!

It is estimated that this will not change by the year 2012.

Re:This just in! (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882471)

In 2012, you will have to pay Microsoft for moving your mouse: 3 cents per foot. This is in addition to 2 cents for each keystroke (modifier keys are free.. but don't even think about writing a "Control-key morse-code input device" that'll get you slapped with the DMCA2).

Don't complain though, you get 5 free DVD-ROM ejections and insertions per month, after that it's only $0.99 .. what a deal!

I love microsoft! They sell me Freedom(tm)!

Re:This just in! (3, Funny)

The Notorious ASP (628859) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882606)

In case y'all haven't read the news... [theonion.com]

Oh darn. (4, Funny)

m_chan (95943) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882398)

Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based (0.6 probability).

I guess robot love dolls won't be on the market until 2013. (99.4 probability)

Re:Oh darn. (4, Funny)

Waab (620192) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882451)

I guess robot love dolls won't be on the market until 2013.

Oh, they'll be on the market by 2006, but they'll be strictly Windows-based. It won't be until 2013 that they go open source. At that point they'll come into more common use as BSOD-related personal injuries become far less common.

Re:Oh darn. (-1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882511)

And in 2014 99.9% of all Linux users will still be virgins. Even with fuck-bots, Linux users will still be fucking their fists.

This is bad news for the ladies (1)

Subcarrier (262294) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882592)

It won't be until 2013 that they go open source.

M$ Windows is perfect for toys that suck. For other things, however, you need an OS that will stay up no matter how much you f*ck with it.

Re:This is bad news for the ladies (2)

kin_korn_karn (466864) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882718)

For other things, however, you need an OS that will stay up no matter how much you f*ck with it.
that means the male dolls will run Unix :)

Re:Oh darn. (5, Funny)

cmeans (81143) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882707)

Ah...but you'll be paying for these devices to "go down", so Windows is a natural :)

know thou math (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882562)

A probability of 1 means absolute certainty.
0.6 probability = 0.6 * 100 / 100 = 60 %

know thou humor (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882667)

Probability that the joke would have been funny if you told it: .001

Volume (2, Funny)

SavingPrivateNawak (563767) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882399)

by volume in Gigabytes

And what about in MB or KB?
The same??
Ok, that was just to use a buzzword, I understand better now!

Re:Volume (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882609)

Shouldn't we be measuring in Terabytes? or Petabytes?
What about DVD's? My guess is that there is already more information in the form of DVD's and Music than all other forms of information input combined.

I'll change my interface device... (5, Funny)

trentfoley (226635) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882403)

...when you pry my qwerty keyboard from my cold, dead, carpal-tunneled hands.

Re:I'll change my interface device... (2)

Neck_of_the_Woods (305788) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882442)


Mod up above, I would love to see thinkgeek make that a bumper sticker.

Re:I'll change my interface device... (1)

sxltrex (198448) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882552)

Your proposal is accepted.

I'll be walking around in my new trentfoley suit later on today.

Re:I'll change my interface device... (5, Funny)

sczimme (603413) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882598)


That won't be too hard: individuals with CTS and tendonitis can't grip things too tightly.

Of course, neither can dead people. Never mind.

I'd rather be a dvorak than a qwerty (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882714)

...and I'd like to die in a space bar.

GyroMouse (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882404)

Would the gyro mice that sense your hand motion be considered part of the traditional 'keyboard & mouse' setup? Seems to me that it offers a lot more potential for interactivity than the current standard.

how about "licenses of the future" (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882405)

forget the technology, how about "softwrae licenses of the future"?

I was just reading a license that read the following: "16. Survival. Sections 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19 shall survive any termination or expiration of this Agreement."

How the fuck can parts of a license "survive" termination of the license? WTF??? Forget this, I'm sticking with the GPL.

I can't wait to see how we'll be screwed in the year 2012.

Media Labs (4, Informative)

VoidEngineer (633446) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882406)

Check out the University of Chicago's Computing Cluster & Cybercafe"> and MIT's Media Lab [mit.edu] for more information about human user interfaces. This article is behind the times, in regards to stuff that's already been produced in the laboratories.

Mess that one up (1)

VoidEngineer (633446) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882453)

Well, I messed that post up. The computing cluster link may have been offtopic, anyhow, so I'll leave it out. But, you should visit MIT's media lab site, anyhow....

And, of course, there is the Washington States Human Interface Technology Laboratory [washington.edu] . HIT Marks, heh...

Re:Media Labs (4, Interesting)

KKin8or (633073) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882604)

Being produced in labs and being used by the general public are two very different things. Not only do the labs have to produce it and test it, they then have to sell the idea to someone. When one of these fancy new interfaces first goes to market, they'll probably be pretty expensive, since it's unlikely it'd be mass produced yet. For a large chunk of the general public to actually start using a spiffy new interface, enough tech hounds have to shell out dough for the early ones for the manufacturer to bother mass producing, and thus lowering the cost of, the new gadget. Plus it has to have a large enough benefit over existing interfaces that people are actually willing to take the leap to pay for and try it (or at least enough people to make it "trendy").

Take the mouse, for example. According to this article [ideafinder.com] , the mouse was invented in 1968. And it didn't become popular until the Mac came out in 1984. That's 16 years of obscurity before general adoption. Granted, there wasn't really any general widespread use of computer technology in that 16 years, so these days it'd be a good bit less. Still, people are really slow to switch away from something familiar that "works".

Re push vs pull (5, Interesting)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882413)

Their prediction that almost all data will be "push" instead of "pull" sounds way off to me.

Some of the problems with push technology

  1. Piggy-back of spam, unwanted data, etc
  2. Security in general
  3. Cunsumers have already made it clear they don't want it
  4. Wasted bandwidth
  5. Wasted time filtering out the unwanted stuff in the feed
The rest of the story was also pretty ho-hum. Nothing to see there ... move along ... why this is news is beyond me. Oh - right, today's Friday, and we've got to set up a bunch of stories to be repeated Monday ... :-)

Re:Re push vs pull (5, Insightful)

Angst Badger (8636) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882581)

Their prediction that almost all data will be "push" instead of "pull" sounds way off to me.

It sounds off because it is. "Push" is one of those stillborn ideas that marketroids insist on resurrecting every few years, like the impending death of the PC, the ascendance of subscription-everything, thin clients, household automation, and so on.

Re:Re push vs pull (3, Insightful)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882677)

Agreed, except on the "thin client" thingee; not the way that the powers-that-wanna-be had it, where your thin client connects to their server. More like you have one or more servers, and several specialized thin clients around (PDA, PVR, smartPhone, email reader, mp3 jukebox, game box, etc).

Re:Re push vs pull (1)

MrCode (466053) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882596)

Um, I believe the opposite was stated:


As enterprises improve their understanding of the different information needs of their users and customers at various touchpoints, a shift will occur--from the current "push" mode to a "pull" mode.


Which would be a good thing, since as you say, "push" sucks. Just tell me what I want to know, damn it, no more!

Re:Re push vs pull (3, Informative)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882720)

What the article said, and what the author meant (looking in context) were two different things. Today, when you surf the web, you selectively pull data off servers. Push is a still-born technology that never made it, and never will, that feeds you data whether you want it or not. Think of a connection between your box and a server, where your box constantly receives updates (they're "pushed onto you whether you want them or not, sort of like windows updates that break your box").

Unfortunately, the article's author (or an editor) got the two terms mixed up (I guess when push comes to shove ... ) This is what we've all come to expect from Gartner and the other cloudy-crystal-ball-gazers.

Re:Re push vs pull (2)

Aggrazel (13616) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882603)

Perhaps not so much wasted bandwidth, if much of the push data is multicast.

In gigabytes? (1)

pjmorse (630859) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882421)

They're measuring human-computer input in gigabytes? Seems like the hardware would have a lot to do with that. A single user using a bit-intensive input device would be weighted disproportionately, wouldn't they? Couldn't they just count by input device? X keyboards, Y modems, Z neurocannular jacks?

I wonder if SMS text messaging will still be here (4, Insightful)

Zog The Undeniable (632031) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882422)

It has the crappiest usability and the highest per-byte costs of any form of communication since Morse code telegraphy, but it's wildly popular. Amazing.

Keyboard/Mouse sub-categories (2)

sisukapalli1 (471175) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882423)

Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based.

I think 94 percent will be mouse generated (e.g., the new "Hello, WordProcessor" document would have several KB of different font styles, markup, colors, and all that jazz (all mouse based), and only a couple of dozen bytes of text (via keyboard).

S

Re:Keyboard/Mouse sub-categories (3, Insightful)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882469)

... and most of that will be generated by the application marking up your "hello, wordprocessor" with all sorts of xml tags, headers, default styles, embedded info, etc. ...

My prediction: I see, you see, we all see ASCII. Yep, plain text will still be there.

Re:Keyboard/Mouse sub-categories (2)

Gropo (445879) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882704)

My prediction: I see, you see, we all see ASCII. Yep, plain text will still be there.
Good grief... If the majority of the Computing Universe hasn't standardized on Unicode [unicode.org] by 2012 I will have no hope for Humanity...

2012 (0, Offtopic)

linuxcoder (568828) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882428)

No sense looking beyond 2012. Everybody knows the world will end on 12/21/2012.

Re:2012 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882649)

then why dont you just kill yourself?

whatever...

Re:2012 (2)

Capt. DrunkenBum (123453) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882685)

The world came to an end January 1 2001, but we were all too drunk too notice.

unit conversion please (1)

zoiks01 (542655) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882439)

What percentage is that in megabytes? uhh...95% Doh!

Wow, that's a first. (2, Insightful)

og_sh0x (520297) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882441)

A technology prediction that predicts that the radical changes in human interaction previously predicted won't happen overnight. Non-senationalist predictions of the future? Wow. Irony would be if there was suddenly a major breakthrough in speech recognition and he's wrong.

Related: DARPA funds "cognitive assistant" (4, Interesting)

sanpitch (9206) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882445)

How about having a computer for a secretary? DARPA is funding [eetasia.com] a "enduring personalized cognitive assistant." The system will be able to "reason, use represented knowledge, learn from experience, accumulate knowledge, explain itself, accept direction, be aware of its own behavior and capabilities as well as respond in a robust manner to surprises."

Re:Related: DARPA funds "cognitive assistant" (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882601)

Isn't that what Microsoft Bob did?

Digital Paper (3, Interesting)

9Numbernine9 (633974) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882447)

E-Ink or digital paper
Maybe it's just me, but I can't see this becoming a reality anytime in the near future.

Firstly, there is a certain tactile "feel" to writing on actual paper that would be very difficult to replicate - and if it feels too different, I suspect people won't adopt it.

Secondly, cost - could this be brought down to a price that would be economically feasible? If it's not as cheap as paper, it isn't gonna happen.

That's not to say that I wouldn't like to see it introduced; we could all have our workplace documents on those little pads, similar to theones in Star Trek, and I'm all for anything that will stop the slaughter of forests - I'm just highly pessmisitic. The author seems to be of a "more of the same" persuasion as well. Maybe someday, but I don't think we'll see it in the next ten years.

Re:Digital Paper (4, Informative)

cybermace5 (446439) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882676)

I think it's just you. Demonstrable E-Ink displays already exist, how long do you think it will take to refine them?

And, why do we have exactly duplicate the feel of paper? E-Ink is supposed to duplicate the flexibility and static display capabilities of paper, while adding digital versatility. The feel of writing on paper is learned, not instinctive.

Finally, why does it have to be as cheap as paper? It's much better than paper, it has many more uses, but it makes no sense to feed E-Ink into a laser printer or to hang it next your toilet. Digital ink keeps you from having to buy paper all the time.

How will non PC devices affect this? (2, Insightful)

SoVi3t (633947) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882448)

Consider plans for alot of gaming consoles (Sony is interested in Hive technology, for instance) to become integrated with your household. I can see your entire home being hardwired into a single pc, and you can just go room to room, turn on any tv/monitor, and play whatever games you own, watch any tv shows or movies, or surf the web. Can't see all this still operating with even advanced Mouse and Keyboard technology.

Misleading (1)

jblaze (136662) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882455)

The article (blurb) leads you to think everything will remain the same for input. But the thing is, input for desktops will remain the same (surprise, Inkwell or TabletPCs won't catch on) keyboard will not be the input method of choice for devices. These devices (PDA, refrigerators, iPods, etc.) will far, far outnumber the amount of desktop machines.

So, yes, old technology will stay the same. Shocker.

Gartner is useless (4, Insightful)

geophile (16995) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882459)

Here, in one sentence, is everything that's wrong with Gartner: ... more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based (0.6 probability). ...

Let's break it down:
  • Mindless extrapolation of the obvious: "... will remain keyboard- and mouse-based."
  • Authoritative sounding numbers pulled out of the air: "... more than 95 percent ... 0.6 probability ..."
  • Sheer idiocy: "... 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) ..." (If it's a percentage, then why does the unit matter?)

Re:Gartner is useless (2)

mark_lybarger (199098) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882553)

to add to your mindless extrapolation of the obvious:... "They should identify a clear return on investment before engaging in implementations. "

looks like someone spent a minute or two analyzing the dot com era of the late 90's eh?

Re:Gartner is useless (5, Funny)

goon america (536413) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882602)

(If it's a percentage, then why does the unit matter?)

To come up with their predictions, analysts sit around and huff paint thinner until they lose consciousness. Once in a full state of dementia, fully developed predictions appear in rounded pod form from the brilliant, corpulent, snake-like ether of the true ultrafied space-time ribbons, at which point the analyst must delicately pluck them from the mind-hive before they can be sold to the public. Sometimes it comes out in both percents and gigabytes.

It's not a perfect system.

Re:Gartner is useless (2)

tswinzig (210999) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882620)

Sheer idiocy: "... 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) ..." (If it's a percentage, then why does the unit matter?)

The unit still matters.

For example, he wanted to be sure you knew he wasn't talking about information measured by "volume, in liters."

Re:Gartner is useless (2)

addaon (41825) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882709)

Which prompts the question... since when is the gigabyte a measure of volume? Last I checked it was a measure of information.

--

Re:Gartner is useless (5, Informative)

Traa (158207) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882636)

as much as I think the article was a little light on interesting details, lets not get carried away by ridiculing mr Gartner.

If you can't figure out from the article that these statements and numbers are part of a bigger document then I'll do it for you:

Mindless extrapolation of the obvious: "... will remain keyboard- and mouse-based."
Try the same sentence without the "keyboard- and mouse-based" part. It doesn't work.

Authoritative sounding numbers pulled out of the air: "... more than 95 percent ... 0.6 probability ..."
One of many phrases that are probably pulled out of a document where those numbers are explained. Blame ZDNet on leaving out the link to the original work by mr Gartner.

Sheer idiocy: "... 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) ..." (If it's a percentage, then why does the unit matter?)
Same as above. There are numbers that go with these phrases. The numbers are in gigabytes (duh) and the blame lies with the reporter Alexander Linden for not refering to the original document. The dork prolly just cut and paste without looking at the content.

Now if someone can be so good to find us the complete works of mr Gartner.

Re:Gartner is useless (2)

Capt. DrunkenBum (123453) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882724)

In other news Gartner Group buys keyboard and mouse manufacturing companys.

Interfaces? (3, Funny)

grub (11606) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882461)


.. but will these new interfaces work with my flying car?

no need to wait till 2008 (3, Funny)

mark_lybarger (199098) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882462)

By 2008, retinal imaging and augmented reality will become available in mobile devices (0.6 probability).

i've been on the mobile subway devices of NYC and D.C., and let me tell you... the reality there is extremely augmented. normally, i've found peak augmentation to occur around 4:20 in the afternoon for some reason.

CLI? (2)

NineNine (235196) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882470)

I didn't see anything mentioning the bugeoning ubiquity of people reverting to the CLI. Somehow I'm not surprised.

Displays (5, Insightful)

zapfie (560589) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882476)

'Human-computer interfaces will rapidly improve during the next decade. The wide availability of cheaper display technologies will be one of the most transformational events in the IT industry.' Not exactly a scoop, isn't?

More of one than you think.. I don't think he's talking about your monitor. In almost all consumer electronic devices, know what the most expensive component usually is? Yup, it's the display. Reduce the price of that, and all of a sudden, those consumer devices have a lot more to work with. More screens, better screens, enhanced power, cheaper price, etc... if we can reduce the cost of the display significantly, it can only mean good things for consumer electronics.

translation please? (1)

mark_lybarger (199098) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882493)

By 2012, the general mode of information supply of the 20th century--push--will be superseded by pull, where information is sent on demand or filtered by user profiles (0.6 probability).

could someone please translate this? i'm reading it to be email filters on steroids (or viagra perhaps?).

Alternate prediction (4, Interesting)

Tsar (536185) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882498)

'Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based.'

By volume in gigabytes? Call me a contrarian, but I'll bet videocameras will exceed keyboard input by that standard. Wanna test that notion, Gartner? Point your text editor at a file, and I'll fire up my webcam recorder. Ready? GO!

Of course, with all these advances... (0)

nrvous6 (590059) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882499)

...still no one is going to solve the carpal tunnel problem.

Human Interface (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882504)

Will be an antique, real humans will have passed the need/desire to interface with computers, the asteroid that smacks into Earth will kill off 95 percent of the population and the survivors will be brave enough to learn how to live with their environment, not run rough-shod over it. Sadly, no Slashdot readers will survive, being untra-dependant upon technology, they will fall by the wayside of human progress. Now if we could get a Beowolf cluster of asteroids...

We all know this is accurate (1)

241comp (535228) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882505)

I mean, all the MP3's, AVI's, MPG's, etc, etc on the P2P networks and people PC's (not to mention image files which are scanned and DVD's played)) make up far less than 5% of the data on our computers. Take my computer for instance. I have typed almost 20MB in data files - and only have 6 Gigs of video and 1 Gig of music. Wait a minute... that's not right... Other input: All data generated by distributed computing clients Data gathered by SETI Digital Cameras Sensor feedback (car computers, industrial computers, etc) I really think that saying 95% of data is keyboard/mouse input is probably wrong.

Re:We all know this is accurate (1)

241comp (535228) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882524)

Oh yeah, one more thing... it says Human to Computer input. Well, my digital camera or my DVD are merely tools I use to get the data on my computer. Same as keyboards and mice are.

Re:We all know this is accurate (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882599)

he said human-to-computer information input. He's not talking about a movie of your surroundings...he's talking about useful information entered by a person. This useful information will still probably be entered with a mouse and keyboard, and not with some fancy newer technology like speech recognition, gesture or factial expression recognition, etc.

A Solution Looking For a Problem (3, Insightful)

MrCode (466053) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882517)


Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based (0.6 probability).


I think this is fine. All the effort to "perfect" speech and handwriting recognition, while worthwhile from an academic standpoint, is not really necessary.

I personally can type much faster than I could dictate, and most definitely faster than I can write by hand. I'm not even a "real" touch typist either.

Can anyone imagine dictating a long paper, or forget it, a complex program? You would go hourse and/or insane before 3 pages were done.

Therefore effort in speech recognition should focus on perfecting the simple command interfaces ("Computer, turn on the kitchen lights") instead of trying to perfect dictation. Speech recognition should be used to enhance keyboard based interfaces, not supplant them. Many times typing is the best way to input the data.

Re:A Solution Looking For a Problem (2)

tomhudson (43916) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882611)

Agreed. And which is quicker anyway : Saying "Computer, turn on the lights" or flipping a switch.

Now if they could develop one that responded to "Computer, where did I leave [ the remote | my glasses | my brains for wasting time reading another Gartner prediction ]", that would be something :-)

Gartner (1)

seigel (94101) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882532)

Ahhh you gotta love those 16 page prophetic reports!

I was hoping that they would predict something useful like, "by 2012 you won't have to directly interact with that flippant paperclip in Word(tm) any longer!"

Cheers

I think (1, Offtopic)

sawilson (317999) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882551)

Things will get more modular, kinda like the
handspring. People are slowly getting more tech
savvy. That will lend itself to people wanting
to upgrade their machines more easily. I can see
video cards, drives, memory, etc, all being in
cartridge format and snapped into your caselike
box thing from the outside with no need to open
anything up.

Re:I think (1)

sputnik73 (579595) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882594)

I disagree with your prediction.

Quick! Everyone come up with silly predictions! (0)

writertype (541679) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882554)

And by the time the thread hits 300 responses, mods will be handing out "+1: Yeah, yeah, yeah" and "+1: All right, already"...

Re:Quick! Everyone come up with silly predictions! (2, Funny)

9Numbernine9 (633974) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882576)

Alright. I predict that by 2013, Slashdotters will still be making "In Soviet Russia..." jokes.

I was amazed... (4, Interesting)

craenor (623901) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882569)

When I bought a Canon EOS-1 Camera and it could focus on different areas inside the viewing area, depending on where my eyes were trained.

The question is...how long before this technology makes its way into mainstream computers, or something like it.

Wouldn't it be nice to just look at the monitor, blink twice and have the folder open. Careful where you look though!

implants (1)

frieked (187664) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882575)

As scary and freaky a thought that this might be, I think microchip implants [mnsi.net] as a human/computer interface might have a promising future.
What are people's thoughts on this subject?

blah... (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882612)

that is the worst prediction I have ever heard....

Lingering Question (1)

coloth (630330) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882613)


I predict that by 2012, most Computer-Human Interface research will be dedicated to answering one lingering question:

Abort, Retry, Ignore?

THANK YOU USA! (-1, Offtopic)

DrunkenPenguin (553473) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882618)

..for BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN and THE E-STREET BAND! We're having a Christmas party here in Finland and the house is *ROCKING* - thanks to Bruce's records!

Mod this down if you really have to - We just felt like we _needed_ to say that even nerds can have fun on weekends ;) Greetings flies to New Jersey ;) Happy Christmas and Merry New Year!

We're a bit drunk, but hey - we're having fun ;)
----

I predict.... (1)

seagar (631973) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882629)

A doctor by the name of Noonian Soong with create an artifical life form.Complete with a positronic network, he will be virtually human....(except for the fact that he doesn't use contractions)

Your website is a column? (1)

Traicovn (226034) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882632)

Roland (the individual who submitted this story) summarizes the story in his own PERSONAL column, I mean 'weblog'.... Any takes on that? Perhaps somebody really really just wanted people to visit their site?

What's special about gigabytes? (0, Flamebait)

Eric Smith (4379) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882639)

'Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based.'
Does that mean that those of us who measure data volume in megabytes or terabytes will be using other input devices?

Is this true? (2, Insightful)

addaon (41825) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882664)

more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based

Is this even true today? I doubt it's true of my own work. I own a digital camera. I don't take many pictures; I'm not very photogenic. I figure I take about 50 pictures a month... let's call that one a day, to be conservative. 1600x1200x8, uncompressed (I use a raw format that sends 8-bit intensity data for each pixel, as each pixel in a digital camera is only one color), comes out to very close to 2MB per image. In a given day, I also spend about 8 hours sitting in front of my computer. I type at ~60 words per minute (never said I was fast), coming out to about 160kB/day. Now, I don't use my mouse too much, since it hurts my wrist. But even if it sends 4-byte updates 300 times a second when I'm not moving it at all, that comes out to 35MB a day... hardly a realistic number, but let's run with it. So my total keyboard/mouse input is 36MB a day, at an absurd maximum (I do stop for breath occasionally), while my non-keyboard/mouse input is 2MB/day, at a rather absurd minimum. And just with those numbers, I have (slightly) less than 95% of input being keyboard/mouse based.

I know a lot of people who take more pictures than me. One person taking 10 pictures a day is enough to offset 9 people who take none. A few people use speech recognition... that's relative high-bandwidth input. And I'm sure at least one person in ten thousand has a digital video camera...

So, does anyone think this 95% number is true even today?

--

Niels Bohr's take on all of this... (4, Insightful)

jmichaelg (148257) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882665)

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."
~Niels Bohr

Unfortunately, I can't vouchsafe the quote. John Perry Barlow circulated it a few years back and when I asked him where he found it, he couldn't remember. So perhaps if Bohr didn't say it, he should have.

My predictions. (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882672)

Computers remain keyboard and mouse. No developments are made in neural mind-reading spoon interfaces. Could you imagine computing by voice to play Quake or work in the office? Neither can anyone else.

Chip makers will get a clue and start offering cooler chips. The refrigeration wars begin. By the end, all chips are cooled to below-freezing temperatures, and geeks are left stating, "It doesn't matter at all anymore."

The falling cost of immense broadband in Europe and Asia (but not the US) gives rise to a new spin on an old game - muds. Graphical muds (IE, EQ, DAoC) are able to be run by non-corps. The first few take immense skill and talent, causing people to say, "Woah." Soon, thanks to open source, it becomes impossible to find these original games among all the clones started by 14 year olds who thought the administrators of the originals were a bunch of nazis.

Speaking of graphics, NVidia is wiped off the face of the planet when their latest graphics card malfunctions and goes critical. Engineers fail to activate the safety coolant systems, and the card explodes in a glorious mushroom-shaped cloud of nuclear energy. And users of ATI will rejoice.

How do I get paid making perdictions? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#4882699)

I have a slew of them better than these!!

"Computer screens will become ubiquitous"
Of course they will, we will be wearing them
on the bridge of our noses!

"Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based."
Duh! Mouse yes, keyboard NO NO NO!

Girl at bar:
"Why is you hand squirrling in your pocket so much?"
Geek:
"No, I am not playing pocket pool, I'm buying something from Amazon thank you very much!"
Girl:
Well if you can teach me to order that way
we could be friends for life:)
Geek
Time for school, nobody can finger a pad as well as I can!

Ok here is what it will be:
a) A brick on your belt the size of a pager with info that is required to be available at high speed. Basically the most important 10 gigs on your desktop.
b) Blue tooth to your monitor,i.e. eyeglasses which also house your ear phone and microphone.
c) Blue tooth to pointer, i.e. pocket touch pad in your pocket or a magic pen.
d) Wireless Internet connection for when it's avaialable. Same as, or in conjucntion with cell phone.
e)A fuel cell rechargable via a Blue Martini!
Geeze if it doesn't work at least you can drink it:)

Here is a new Law..."JPOG's LAW"!..."The number of keystrokes hammered onto a user's keyboard is inversely proportional to the clock cycles available and usable by the the user."

My Predictions (5, Funny)

sawilson (317999) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882716)

As an esteemed predictionaire of sorts, with full
backing of the predictionationization society, here
are my predictions for the next decade:

#1 Algebra won't be hard someday

#2 Grass will mow itself

#3 The Aliens people have encountered will be
revealed to be the "geek" or "dork" aliens. The
Jock aliens stay back on marklar and get laid and
drink. They are much bigger and stronger.

#4 Trendy computer users will start doing
"case piercing" and the truly EXTREME will try
out hard drive piercings. They will be made of
steel at first, but aluminum will become the rage.

#5 Wireless wires will be invented to replace the
wired wires.

#6 The "tornado in a can" will become "the can"
in your bathroom. Flushing dead goldfish will
never be boring again.

#7 Top ten lists will transmogrifimorphicate into
top 7 lists.

Paradigm shift (3, Interesting)

Daetrin (576516) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882729)

At first i was disapointed with this prediction about another 10 years of video screens (of various kinds) and keybaord and mouse input. However look at the alternatives he's suggesting, handwiritng and voice recognition.

I really couldn't care less about those modes of input. Can you imagine everyone in the office talking to their computers at once? And it wouldn't really help that much for programming or data entry, the tasks that a lot of computers get used for. As for handwriting, my hand starts to hurt after about five minutes of writing stuff on paper, and i usually give up and open up Notepad. And that's not even considering that my handwriting sucks and would be about ten times as difficult to process as "normal" handwriting.

What this guy really isn't saying much about is direct optical feeds; ie, beaming visual information onto your retina, or inserting false visual signals higher upsteam in your nervous system, and direct mental input; either in the form of reading the synapses in your brain, or recording your motions as you type and guesture in the air.

That's the kind of technology that will cause a major shift in the way we use computers, and is so different from our current modes of interaction that you can't really extrapolate from here to there. I'm sure scientists during the 40s and 50s were predicting great advances in vacuum tubes (the science fiction authors certainly were at least) that never materialized, or at least that were never utilized, because of the development of the microchip.

I have no idea if those kinds of technologies will be fully developed in the next ten years or not, but i don't think this guy has any better of an idea than the rest of us.

tablet (1)

simpl3x (238301) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882733)

well, now i get to tap on my virtual keyboard with my beak, er pen!

No more screens (2, Interesting)

Un pobre guey (593801) | more than 11 years ago | (#4882734)

Here is my prediction, and you can throw it back in my face 10 years from now:

By 2012 computer displays as we now know them (LCD, CRT) will have been relegated to inexpensive embedded systems. Bleeding edge office information devices will function by tracking the user's movements and speech, as well as manipulation of common objects in her work environment. They will serve the same purpose as graphical icons do today. The computer screen will have been subsumed into dynamic surface markings and other detectable changes in the objects in her environment. They will have reflective (as opposed to backlit) display surfaces where information can be encoded in textual, graphical, color, or texture attributes, and sometimes some degree of 3D physical configuration changes. These will range from writing surfaces that resemble paper, cards, packaging materials, and other document-like entities, to instrument or appliance control panels and communications devices. User interactions with these items can produce changes in both the displays and the underlying data repositories. Moving them, rearranging their relative locations, adjusting them, speaking into them, and other as yet unforeseeable user interactions will effect the state changes that embody the user's day to day tasks. Think of a cube with an environment of intelligent interactive devices that visibly and audibly change as work gets done. The devices themselves will also be communicating and interacting as needed.

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