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Simulation Of An Asteroid Impact In The Year 2880

timothy posted more than 11 years ago | from the only-a-test dept.

Space 411

JoeRobe writes "Researchers at UCSC have simulated a possible outcome of an impact by asteroid 1950DA when it passes near us in the year 2880. Note that there is a 0.3% chance of impact during that encounter. In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast. In addition to an assessment of the danger, their studies point out the resulting geologic features that we should be looking for now, which would indicate where and when such impacts have occured in the past."

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Actually... (5, Funny)

SquireCD (465008) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054715)

I believe that nuclear war will have killed us all by then. Don't worry about the comet.

Re:Actually... (0, Funny)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054724)

nuclear war
what is that ? I hope you meant NUCULAR war.

Re:Actually... (1)

krisp (59093) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054742)

Did you mean: NUCLEAR [google.com] war

I think you did!

Re:Actually... (1)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054778)

Did you mean: NUCLEAR war

Nope, I am darn sure that its either nucular or nuculer. Do you know better or George W Bush ?

i say (0, Funny)

George Wanker Bush (676496) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054934)

It's NUCULAR war! Or NOCULAR. I'm not sure. Must remember to ask Clinton later today.

Re:Actually... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054845)

nuculer. if the simpsons has taught us anything, homer insists that he works in a nuculer power plant.

and marge admires all the trees and foilage.

Re:Actually... (1)

joFFeman (574971) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054833)

this shouldn't have been modded +funny... it should have been modded +insightful.

Re:Actually... (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054904)

Why hasn't NASA figured out a way to use this asteroid to get somewhere? Think about it, asteroids are like interstellar trains. We should be figuring out how to hop on one of these things, find some life somewhere else, then hop back on the next one heading back toward Earth.

We'll all be dead by then... (1)

tetrode (32267) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054719)

Our grand-grand-grand-children might worry about it, but we'll be dead by then

Re:We'll all be dead by then... (0, Funny)

JumperCable (673155) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054848)

That's great for you but what about those to have cryogenically frozen themselves waiting for technology to develop far enough to revive them!

Re:We'll all be dead by then... (1)

Hellkitten (574820) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054935)

That's great for you but what about those to have cryogenically frozen themselves waiting for technology to develop far enough to revive them!

Since the chances of a hit in water with following waves is the most likely just make sure they store you far from the coast, in a cave in the mountain, with backup power

See, nothing to worry about

Re:We'll all be dead by then... (1)

JumperCable (673155) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054965)

Whoooo. Thanks! Now I can go back to sleep... now where did I put those 2 tons of ice cubes.

Re:We'll all be dead by then... (1)

Eric Ass Raymond (662593) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054881)

Don't worry.

By 2880 we will have developed amazing technology such as asteroid repellent beams, fusion and flying cars.

Uhm... (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054721)

their studies point out the resulting geologic features that we should be looking for now, which would indicate where and when such impacts have occured in the past.

Craters?

Re:Uhm... (5, Informative)

canthusus (463707) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054773)

Craters are only visible for a short period, and for relatively small impacts. They erode.

For older and larger impacts, you're looking for very different evidence: heavily brecciated rocks, shock quartz crystals, changes to crust/mantle interface, evidence of high pressure rocks. Further afield, evidence of global dust layers (esp contaminated with terrestrially unusual minerals such as iridium), evidence of "tidal wave" eg poorly structured jumbled marine deposits over a large area.

Re:Uhm... (1)

IICV (652597) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054869)

Actually, all you need to look at for evidence of old comet impacts is the Gulf of Mexico. That one must have been a doozy.

Re:Uhm... (1)

AresTheImpaler (570208) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054944)

evidence of old comet impacts is the Gulf of Mexico
gulf of mexico?? o damnit I will be one of the first ones to die..

Re:Uhm... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054860)

I thought they were referring to the Grand Canyon. But we all know that came from the giant falling from the beanstalk.

Huh ? (1)

IanBevan (213109) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054722)

I'm glad that this date is > 24xx. "Asteroid may hit 2330" might have been a somewhat more alarming headline - I was kinda hoping to see tomorrow...

In 877 years I will be dead (5, Funny)

ObviousGuy (578567) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054723)

And thus I do not care.

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054736)

Don't you have any regard for human life? Think about someone else besides yourself for a change, and imagine the scenario that these people 877 years from now will face. You are a very selfish individual.

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054872)

By then the robots will be in control. This meteor could be just the thing to take them out.

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (4, Funny)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054747)

yeah , besides if humans evolve as shown in hollywood, the women then will have three boobs and the mutant power to control the tsunami.

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (4, Funny)

petecarlson (457202) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054772)

I guess men will have to grow another hand...

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (5, Funny)

Snoopy77 (229731) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054858)

Two hands and a mouth ... we are ready for the three breasted women!

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (1, Funny)

jinglecat (673072) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054828)

In 877 years from now, Strom Thurman *might* be dead.....

The book of horrible questions (5, Interesting)

rock_climbing_guy (630276) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054854)

There is a question in this funny volume that addresses this subject. I don't have the book at hand, but it goes like this: If you had the choice, and no one could ever know that you had the choice, would you allow the United States to sink into the ocean 500 years after your death in exchange for an ATM card that can remove money from any ATM without taking money from your account.

Don't even think about it, you fscking Canadians.

Re:The book of horrible questions (1)

jalet (36114) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054960)

No problem ! Where should I sign ? :-)

Re:The book of horrible questions (-1, Troll)

Hellkitten (574820) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054962)

would you allow the United States to sink into the ocean 500 years after your death in exchange for an ATM card that can remove money from any ATM without taking money from your account.

Hell yeah, if I had the choice I might even give up the card to have it happen tomorrow

Seriously though the disapperance of the United States would probably be a good thing for the world in general, a small non nuclear civil war that breaks it up into the individual states would be a good thing. Then just maybe americans would have to learn to cooperate with the rest of the world

And btw I'm not canadian :)

Re:In 877 years I will be dead (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054929)

Actually, we will likely be disembodied heads preserved in glass containers with some kind of life preserving fluid, possibly Slurm. Hopefully I'll be out delivering Popplers for Planet Express in some far corner of the universe at the time of impact. Hey, wait, but if we're just heads that means we have no ... forget it, I'd rather be dead.

hot grits in my pants? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054728)

3rd post, maybe? I should really look into getting that subscription so I can get all of those plums. I love plums!

Re:hot grits in my pants? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054741)

you made me think of plums 555 manbabies

Accuracy (4, Interesting)

JohnFluxx (413620) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054731)

> Note that there is a 0.3% chance of impact during that encounter.

Is that 0.3% chance mostly from the inaccuracy of the devices that measure the velocity of the object, inaccuracy of the prediction models, or genuine random events (like uh being affected by random solar wind variations, or something ).

Re:Accuracy (1)

tha_mink (518151) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054740)

Well, no one is going to be around to point out the inaccuracy so like....

in case anybody wants to read it here (0, Redundant)

CowBovNeal (672450) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054745)

Massive tsunami sweeps Atlantic Coast in asteroid impact scenario for March 16, 2880
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SANTA CRUZ, CA--If an asteroid crashes into the Earth, it is likely to splash down somewhere in the oceans that cover 70 percent of the planet's surface. Huge tsunami waves, spreading out from the impact site like the ripples from a rock tossed into a pond, would inundate heavily populated coastal areas. A computer simulation of an asteroid impact tsunami developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, shows waves as high as 400 feet sweeping onto the Atlantic Coast of the United States.

The researchers based their simulation on a real asteroid known to be on course for a close encounter with Earth eight centuries from now. Steven Ward, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCSC, and Erik Asphaug, an associate professor of Earth sciences, report their findings in the June issue of the Geophysical Journal International.

March 16, 2880, is the day the asteroid known as 1950 DA, a huge rock two-thirds of a mile in diameter, is due to swing so close to Earth it could slam into the Atlantic Ocean at 38,000 miles per hour. The probability of a direct hit is pretty small, but over the long timescales of Earth's history, asteroids this size and larger have periodically hammered the planet, sometimes with calamitous effects. The so-called K/T impact, for example, ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.

"From a geologic perspective, events like this have happened many times in the past. Asteroids the size of 1950 DA have probably struck the Earth about 600 times since the age of the dinosaurs," Ward said.

Ward and Asphaug's study is part of a general effort to conduct a rational assessment of asteroid impact hazards. Asphaug, who organized a NASA-sponsored scientific workshop on asteroids last year, noted that asteroid risks are interesting because the probabilities are so small while the potential consequences are enormous. Furthermore, the laws of orbital mechanics make it possible for scientists to predict an impact if they are able to detect the asteroid in advance.

"It's like knowing the exact time when Mount Shasta will erupt," Asphaug said. "The way to deal with any natural hazard is to improve our knowledge base, so we can turn the kind of human fear that gets played on in the movies into something that we have a handle on."

Although the probability of an impact from 1950 DA is only about 0.3 percent, it is the only asteroid yet detected that scientists cannot entirely dismiss as a threat. A team of scientists led by researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory reported on the probability of 1950 DA crossing paths with the Earth in the April 5, 2002, issue of the journal Science.

"It's a low threat, actually a bit lower than the threat of being hit by an as-yet-undiscovered asteroid in the same size range over the same period of time, but it provided a good representative scenario for us to analyze," Asphaug said.

For the simulation, the researchers chose an impact site consistent with the orientation of the Earth at the time of the predicted encounter: in the Atlantic Ocean about 360 miles from the U.S. coast. Ward summarized the results as follows:

The 60,000-megaton blast of the impact vaporizes the asteroid and blows a cavity in the ocean 11 miles across and all the way down to the seafloor, which is about 3 miles deep at that point. The blast even excavates some of the seafloor. Water then rushes back in to fill the cavity, and a ring of waves spreads out in all directions. The impact creates tsunami waves of all frequencies and wavelengths, with a peak wavelength about the same as the diameter of the cavity. Because lower-frequency waves travel faster than waves with higher frequencies, the initial impulse spreads out into a series of waves.

"In the movies they show one big wave, but you actually end up with dozens of waves. The first ones to arrive are pretty small, and they gradually increase in height, arriving at intervals of 3 or 4 minutes," Ward said.

The waves propagate all through the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean. The waves decay as they travel, so coastal areas closest to the impact get hit by the largest waves. Two hours after impact, 400-foot waves reach beaches from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras, and by four hours after impact the entire East Coast has experienced waves at least 200 feet high, Ward said. It takes 8 hours for the waves to reach Europe, where they come ashore at heights of about 30 to 50 feet.

Computer simulations not only give scientists a better handle on the potential hazards of asteroid impacts, they can also help researchers interpret the geologic evidence of past events, Ward said. Geologists have found evidence of past asteroid impact tsunamis in the form of inland sediment deposits and disturbed sediment layers in the seafloor that correlate with craters, meteorite fragments, and other impact evidence. An important feature of Ward's simulation is that it enabled him to calculate the speed of the water flows created by the tsunami at the bottom of the ocean--more than 3 feet per second out to distances of several hundred miles from the impact.

"That's like a raging river, so as these waves cross the ocean they're going to stir up the seafloor, eroding sediments on the slopes of seamounts, and we may be able to identify more places where this has happened," Ward said.

He added that the waves may also destabilize undersea slopes, causing landslides that could trigger secondary tsunamis. Ward has also done computer simulations of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides. He showed, for example, that the collapse of an unstable volcanic slope in the Canary Islands could send a massive tsunami toward the U.S. East Coast.

A tsunami warning system has been established for the Pacific Ocean involving an international effort to evaluate earthquakes for their potential to generate tsunamis. Ward said that asteroid impact tsunamis could also be incorporated into such a system.

"Tsunamis travel fast, but the ocean is very big, so even if a small or moderate-sized asteroid comes out of nowhere you could still have several hours of advance warning before the tsunami reaches land," he said. "We have a pretty good handle on the size of the waves that would be generated if we can estimate the size of the asteroid."

Planetary scientists, meanwhile, are getting a better handle on the risks of asteroid impacts. A NASA-led campaign to detect large asteroids in near-Earth orbits is about half way toward its goal of detecting 90 percent of those larger than 1 kilometer in diameter (the size of 1950 DA) by 2008.

"Until we detect all the big ones and can predict their orbits, we could be struck without warning," said Asphaug. "With the ongoing search campaigns, we'll probably be able to sound the 'all clear' by 2030 for 90 percent of the impacts that could trigger a global catastrophe."

Rogue comets visiting the inner solar system for the first time, however, may never be detected very long in advance. Smaller asteroids that can still cause major tsunami damage may also go undetected.

"Those are risks we may just have to live with," Asphaug said.

I doubt they will speak English 800 years from now (5, Funny)

ObviousGuy (578567) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054766)

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Re:I doubt they will speak English 800 years from (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054843)

A hUgE r0ck tWo-tHiRdS 0F @ MiL3 in DiAmEtEr

I see you're confident the USA won't have switched to metric by then.

Re:I doubt they will speak English 800 years from (1)

jkrise (535370) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054847)

But they'd be reading Slashdot even then? You're either being too optimistic or over-confident. Maybe both!

Re:Accuracy (1)

pVoid (607584) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054818)

It's probably due to the fact that they can only obtain a certain amount of precision in their measurements.

When you think about it though, the precisions we're talking about must be just incredible.

The name of the simulation program is... (1, Funny)

ciurana (2603) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054732)

...chicken_little.exe

Cheers!

E

Re:The name of the simulation program is... (2, Interesting)

petecarlson (457202) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054782)

Is there a port for Linux?

This Article Sucks! Inspirational lyrics below (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054734)

She was a girl from Birmingham
she just had an abortion
she was a case of insanity
her name was Pauline she lived in a tree

She was a no-one who killed her baby
she sent her letters from the country
she was an animal
she was a bloody disgrace

Body I'm not an animal
Mummy I'm not an abortion

Dragged on a table in a factory
illegitimate place to be
in a packet in a lavatory
die little baby screaming

Body screaming fucking bloody mess
it's not an animal it's an abortion

Body I'm not an animal
Body I'm not an abortion

Throbbing squirm, gurgling bloody mess
I'm not a discharge I'm not a loss in
protein I'm not a throbbing squirm Ah!

Fuck this and fuck that
fuck it all and fuck the fucking brat
She don't wanna baby that looks like that
I don't wanna baby that looks like that.

Body I'm not an animal
Body i'm not an abortion

Mummy! Ugh!

Re:This Article Sucks! Inspirational lyrics below (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054744)

So you've been to school
for a year or two
And you know you've seen it all.
In Daddy's car
thinking you'll go far
Back east your type don't crawl.

Playing ethnicky jazz
to parade your snazz
On your five grand stereo.
Braggin' that you know
how the niggers feel cold
And the slum's got so much soul.

It's time to taste what you most fear
Right Guard will not help you here.
Brace yourself, my dear...
Brace yourself, my dear...

For a Holiday in Cambodia
It's tough, kid, but it's life.
It's a Holiday in Cambodia
Don't forget to pack a wife.

You're a star-belly sneech
You suck like a leech
You want everyone to act like you.
Kiss ass while you bitch
So you can get rich
While your boss gets richer off you.

Well, you'll work harder
with a gun in your back
For a bowl of rice a day.
Slave for soldiers
'Til you starve
Then your head is skewered on a stake.

Now you can go, where the people are one.
Now you can go where they get things done.
What you need, my son...
What you need, my son...

Is a Holiday in Cambodia
Where people are dressed in black.
A Holiday in Cambodia
Where you'll kiss ass or crack

(instrumental break)

(chanting)
Pol Pot, Pol Pot, Pol Pot, Pol Pot, etc.,...

It's a Holiday in Cambodia
Where you'll do what you're told.
It's a Holiday in Cambodia
Where the slums got so much soul
Pol Pot.

Dead Kennedys

Re:This Article Sucks! Inspirational lyrics below (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054801)

DENY EVERYTHING
i'm innocent until i'm proven guilty deny everything, deny everything i'm being framed, it's all a set-up deny everything i'm just a spoke in the wheel just a part of the puzzle a part of the game i'm being framed innocent 'till i'm proven guilty deny everything, deny everything deny everything, deny everything!

I JUST WANT SOME SKANK
empty frame on the wall cat & mouse when you don't call all i do is think of her the tv screens picture's blurred so take it away! take it away! every night the scene is set i've go to drink to forget i cannot incur this debt where's the gun? here's my head! let's go to the hongkong, breaking glass at madame wong's let's go buy a pint of booze getting drunk, getting loose i just want some skank, i just want some skank i just want some skank, i just want some skank passing flyers at the troub seven nights, seven 'ludes what's the deal with this band? let's go roll some fields, man i just want some skank, i just want some skank i just want some skank, i just want some skank every night would be so great i'd take you home to meet mom & dad and they'll be so glad they won't think their boy's a fag then we'll go upstairs and go to bed

BEVERLY HILLS
beverly hills, century city everything's so nice & pretty all the people look the same don't they know they're so damn lame? there she goes in a three piece suit spandex pants, cowboy boots i don't know what i'm gonna do i don't know what i'm gonna do! maybe i'll have to even move from... beverly hills, century city everything's so nice & pretty because all the people look the same don't they know they're so damn lame? three piece suit, spandex pants cowboy boots, fiorucci, too! beverly hills, century city!

OPERATION
i went to see a rabbi but despite his advice i want an operation i will not father life operation, operation snip & tie, snip & tie they sent me to a preacher a really thoughful guy he said my idea's crazy i shouldn't even try but i've just seen a surgeon and with a knife he cut i cannot bring you children this world is such a rut i had an operation a statement of our times they tied my balls together what's inside's not alive

BACK AGAINST THE WALL
you yell out in defiance you're backed up against the wall they're up there clutching their guns, man and it makes you feel small so you can cuss, spit, throw bottles, broken glass but it all ends up with handcuffs on you hands you run around and spray paint graffiti on everybody's wall you think that's bitchen, man? that ain't nothin at all! so you can cuss, spit, throw bottles, broken glass but it ends up with a swift kick to your ass

WASTED
i was so wasted, i was wasted i was so wasted, i was wasted i was a hippie i was a burnout i was a dropout you know i was out of my head i was a surfer i had a skateboard i was so heavy man i lived on the strand i was so wasted i was wasted i was so fucked up i was so screwed up i was so jacked up i couldn't get any higher than that i was so pilled up i was so nebbed out i was so jacked up i was out of my head i was so wasted i was wasted

BEHIND THE DOOR
mister give me the key point me to the stairs i don't know what waits for me in... room 13! room 13! dim lit stairway stains on the floor looking for 13 what's behind the door? room 13! room 13! prostitutes, hypes & thugs meet me on the way bare ceilings, just blank walls blank walls, that's okay prostitutes, hypes & thugs meet me on the way empty bottles, spots of blood that's cool bro', that's cool 'cause who waits for me? a whore, a bullet, a thug? what waits for me? a whore, a bullet, a thug? that's okay, room 13 that's okay, room 13 turn around i'll walk away turn around i didn't want to stay there anyway

WORLD UP MY ASS
i've got the world up my ass and i'm gonna move fast gonna be the first won't be the last i've got the world up my ass society is burning me up take a bite, then spit it out take their rules rip 'em up, tear them down twisted mind, withered brain you know i'll go insane i just tell them to get back when they tell me how to act! i've got the world up my ass you know i've got the world up my ass!

PAID VACATION
i hope you're having fun where's your uniform? where's your gun? better rub on that suntan oil cause you'll be fighting in the desert sun it's not...vietnam just another oil company scam salute that flag of uncle sam get your money out place you bets it's afghanistan! fix bayonets, check grenades got enough bullets got enough rounds to wipe out this place? we're the infantry & the cavalry parachutes fill the sky bodies burn and people die

DON'T CARE
don't care where you're from anyway i don't care, lots of money anyway i don't care what you say anyway i don't care, lots of clothes anyway i don't care, i don't care don't care, nice care anyway i don't care, nice parent anyway i don't care, nice home anyway i don't care, lots of money anyway i don't care, i don't care

LIVE FAST DIE YOUNG
i don't wanna live to be thirty-four and i don't wanna die in a nuclear war go on out get some more go on out to the bar, the market or the liquor store i don't wanna live to forty-three i don't like what i see going on around me go on out get some more go on out get fucked up and pass out on the floor go on out get some more go on out to your favorite liquor store go on out don't worry about it no more go on out get fucked up, i don't know what for i don't wanna live to fifty-seven i'm living in hell is there a heaven? live fast, die young! live fast, die young! live fast, die young! live fast, die young!

WHAT'S YOUR PROBLEM
girls hate guys because of the things we try guys hate girls because of the things they say behind our backs while we're away tell me what's your problem? what's inside of you? tell me what's your problem? what are you gonna do? i got a date i can't be late if she don't show up i'll masturbate

GROUP SEX
group sex! group sex! group sex! group sex! private swing party friday & saturday night wouldn't it be nice to have a party with couples that are friendly and mellow? a low key atmosphere where you can explore your most sexual fantasies with other aware sensitive couples? group sex! group sex! group sex! group sex! where you could bring someone you care about without embarrassment? privacy, good food & music refreshments, cleanliness & a super jacuzzi too that's what parties at the a-frame are all about call 213-659-3756 best time to call is friday and saturday afternoons group sex!

RED TAPE
red tape i can see, can't you see? red tape do in to you, do in to me red tape bureaucracy & bourgeoisie red tape killing you, killing me tax this, tax that - tax this, tax that no more red tape i can see, can't you see? red tape do in to you, do in to me red tape washington d.c. red tape killing you, killing me so tax this, tax that - tax this, tax that no more red tape red tape i can see, can't you see? red tape do in to you, do in to me red tape bureaucracy in d.c. red tape killing you & killing me tax this, tax that - tax this, tax that no more red tape!

Hope... (3, Funny)

iworm (132527) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054735)

Well given the human race's ingenuity, if in the next 800 hundred years or so we haven't worked out a way to prevent this, we probably deserve extinction for being idle.

Maybe we could all spend a little less on improving ways to kill each other, and a little more on planning our survival?

Re:Hope... (2, Insightful)

DrMrLordX (559371) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054743)

By 2880, I would hope we would have some miner drones attached to that baby draining it of whatever valuable minerals it may have. At least then it won't be so massive when it hits Earth . . .

Re:Hope... (1)

C32 (612993) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054755)

Hell, i'd be suprised if mankind at it's present level couldn't bash something together in a couple of years if under pressure..
Rocket science isn't rocket science anymore :)

Re:Hope... (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054790)

Maybe we could all spend a little less on improving ways to kill each other, and a little more on planning our survival?

Why can't we do both? Unless you think the hippies are going to be the ones to stop an asteroid...

Re:Hope... (-1, Offtopic)

aardwolf204 (630780) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054811)

Lori is zini@crtntx1-ar7-4-63-077-012.crtntx1.dsl-verizon. net * Lori
Lori on @#Tornado @#telco @#hack2000 @#phreaks @#2600 @#hackersworld
Lori using arcor.de.eu.dal.net www.arcor.de - Arcor Online Services
Lori has identified for this nick
Lori has been idle 7682520hrs 33mins 40secs , signed on Wed May 28 00:15:23
Lori End of /WHOIS list.


damn...

Re:Hope... (1)

Buck2 (50253) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054894)

u r 2 31337 4 /.

Re:Hope... (4, Insightful)

jkrise (535370) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054897)

" if in the next 800 hundred years or so we haven't worked out a way to prevent this, we probably deserve extinction for being idle."

I think you're being a bit harsh here. Is idleness the only reason for non-innovation? What about patents? Copyrights? How many years back did we 'invent' these things?
What about money being wasted on 'defence systems' at the cost of innovative research? If World Peace were to be established Today, how much of the wrold's defence budgets could go into this kind of 'Save Humanity' work?
What's the guaranty that more draconian acts than the DM?A could get passed, and stall research in vital areas? How many countries do research on even things like GPS? Peaceful nuclear reseacrh?

Just consider this SCO-IBM imbroglio - how can an entity such as SCO even claim to own the brains of programmers and developers by paying up some cash. How much has DOS (the operating system) advanced over the past 10 years? How many viable alternatives to the X-Window environments have been developed?

And meanwhile,
How many locks, anti-competitive measures and worse tactics have been imposed on good innovative software? Even standards and protocols? I'm sorry, but blaming lack of innovation on mere idleness just doesn't cut it.

As Evelyn Waugh famously said, we need to release generations from captivity, that may be more irksome than our own.

the movie seems to be slashdotted (1)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054738)

someone look at it and tell us if it is any different from the deep impact flick.

Re:the movie seems to be slashdotted (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054885)

this doesn't have such crappy sappy acting

Article text, (impact with slashdot 1950DoS) (3, Funny)

fireman sam (662213) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054739)

May 27, 2003
Contact: Tim Stephens (831) 459-2495; stephens@ucsc.edu

Massive tsunami sweeps Atlantic Coast in asteroid impact scenario for March 16, 2880
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

We're all fscked

400 foot waves? (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054754)

they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast

Hrmm, the destruction of New York and New Jersey.....

I almost wish I would be alive to see it.

90 Percent? (2, Funny)

Unoriginal Nick (620805) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054761)

A NASA-led campaign to detect large asteroids in near-Earth orbits is about half way toward its goal of detecting 90 percent of those larger than 1 kilometer in diameter (the size of 1950 DA) by 2008.

"Until we detect all the big ones and can predict their orbits, we could be struck without warning," said Asphaug. "With the ongoing search campaigns, we'll probably be able to sound the 'all clear' by 2030 for 90 percent of the impacts that could trigger a global catastrophe."

Um, why is the goal to only find 90 percent of the asteroids that can kill us? Shouldn't they be trying to find all of them?

Re:90 Percent? (1)

Catcher80 (639611) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054846)

"Um, why is the goal to only find 90 percent of the asteroids that can kill us? Shouldn't they be trying to find all of them?"

It is probably possible that the smaller ones will break down upon entering the atmosphere. Also, if you can predict orbit patterns for 90% of asteroids, you can probably conclude any type of pattern for asteroids with the same properties (size).

Besides, when the heck was the last time an asteroid hurt the planet anyway? really?

Re:90 Percent? (4, Interesting)

xtal (49134) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054853)

It's 90% because more people work at your average burger king than are full time looking for potental asteroid hazards. Polticians don't care, neither do most people. Until, of course, something happens. Sadly, nothing short of a asteroid impact in the western world will change this. I just hope that it's not mistaken for an act of terrorism, triggering a nuclear holocaust. I also hope it's not so big as to trigger massive climate change.

There is also the problem that we can only detect such objects at so-and-so a range, so earth needs to be in the right place at the right time for an event to be recorded.

Also, comets count potentially disturb the orbits of many asteroids in the meantime. You can't ever predict a comet we haven't seen before - by the time we see it, it will likely be too late to do anything.

Rosy, isn't it.

Re:90 Percent? (4, Informative)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054887)

Um, why is the goal to only find 90 percent of the asteroids that can kill us?

Budget constraints. They can only do so much with what they could sqeeze out of the government.

Seriously, it could be because of the unpredictability of the asteroids' path & other unknown asteroids. Although many of these follow well defined path - a smallest deviation resulting out of say, collision with other space debris, would mean large change from the expected point of contact at earth.

Re:90 Percent? (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054912)

Since the replies so far are half-assed, here's the answer:

Once you've reached 90%, 90% of the asteroids you "discover" you already know about, and only 10% are new. So finding new asteroids is now 10 times harder than before, and going from 90% to 99% (a 9% increase) is just as hard as finding the first 90%. Same problem going from 99.0% to 99.9%, etc.

8 centuries from now... (1)

Narphorium (667794) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054765)

I can see it now. Eight centuries from now they'll be saying: "Gee, that astroid thing is coming up soon. Where did I put that computer simulation from the 21st century?" I mean seriously will computers even be around that far into the future?

Re:8 centuries from now... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054834)

No problem. The actual web page will have long since died of bit rot, but a copy of it will be in the Google Cache.

As far as finding it goes: the descendants of the current Slashdot editors will re-post this story several times a year for the next 800 years, to keep the memory alive.

Yeah, sure... (2, Funny)

canning (228134) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054767)

Who wants to bet it doesn't turn out like they predict? I'll bet my house on it.

Re:Yeah, sure... (1)

Buzz_Litebeer (539463) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054793)

Words of slashdot decendant to your decendant.

"Hey your great *times a lot* grandad said he bet his house, so that means ALL yOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US"

of course my humour filter is pretty weak right now so thats probably not funny in the least

What happens if? (2, Funny)

jkrise (535370) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054771)

"In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast."

Wondering what'd happen if it hit anywhere near Seattle!? heh... forgot, it's gonna be more than 700 years away. Can we have a simulation of that thing in Seattle right now? In a place which rhymes with Deadbund?

Re:What happens if? (1)

The Original Yama (454111) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054963)

"In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast."

Isn't Europe and Africa on the east coast of the Atlantic?

Computer simulation stupid joke. (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054775)

Scientist 1: Hey, this will probably kill a lot of people, it's horrible! Let's create a computer simulation out of it!
Scientist 2: Well yes, of course there is .. scientific reasons ...
Scientist 1: Silence!! *evilgrin*
Scientist 2: Are you mad?!
Scientist 1: No, computergames has done this for years...

Lucifers Hammer? (1)

Buzz_Litebeer (539463) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054781)

It is a book by Niven and Pourelle(sp?), and it details such an event. The characters in the book thought it had a 1000 to 1 chance of missing too, but they were horribly wrong.

3 percent is pretty high considering its the extinction of a sentient race (humans) possible, or at least civilization.

I can just see my genetic decendants going "shit I wish my great *9 or 10 grandfathers generation had taken a little time out of their primitive lives to think about some kind of solution to this..." just before they get the big bam that causes 400 foot ocean swells to kill them in whatever the US is called at that time.

But who knows, end of civilization might not be so bad, but hey whats the percent chance of only that happening if it hits?

Re:Lucifers Hammer? (2, Insightful)

ObviousGuy (578567) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054822)

Just because there is a 3 in 1000 chance of a strike and a strike actually occurs, it does not mean that the initial odds were wrong.

Re:Lucifers Hammer? (1)

inaeldi (623679) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054864)

shit I wish my great *9 or 10 grandfathers generation had taken a little time out of their primitive lives to think about some kind of solution to this

Figures, blame your elders. It's not like they could do anything about it a hundred years from now or so, right?

Re:Lucifers Hammer? (3, Interesting)

Wavicle (181176) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054906)

The characters in the book thought it had a 1000 to 1 chance of missing too, but they were horribly wrong.

Imagine how boring the book would have been if they were right!

Interestingly Lucifer's Hammer has become practically required reading for the "survivalist" movement (people who believe in being prepared for a catastrophic destruction of civilization... they got a little too closely associated with the Y2K nuts a couple years back, but for the most part they are fairly level-headed).

But Lucifer's Hammer is a good read. I think it's filed under SciFi, but it is pretty light on the Science Fiction.

graphics (3, Funny)

UniverseIsADoughnut (170909) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054784)

Anyone else looking for the classic CNN artist rendition of an astoroid impact that looks like the moon hitting the earth to go with this story?

Re:graphics (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054819)

Ha... mod this up, it's funny and very true.

Re:graphics (1)

Hadlock (143607) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054907)

i think that's BBC

(OSQ) Nah it'll miss us easy (1, Funny)

toddhunter (659837) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054786)

And if I'm wrong, may we all be horribly crushed from above somehow

Our great^12 grandchildren are going to look back (5, Funny)

tlambert (566799) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054795)

Our great^12 grandchildren are going to look back on news stories like this one and *laugh their feelers off*...

-- Terry

Re:Our great^12 grandchildren... (1)

Catcher80 (639611) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054821)

LOL

Announcement of Great Religious Significance (-1, Offtopic)

Cmdr. Taco SuxDix (637829) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054803)

Sorry to interrupt, but Jesus just sent me a message through /dev/urandom. The message is "CUMBOX VR". I don't know what it means. It might be Nintendo's secret console project.

400 foot waves (1)

Catcher80 (639611) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054805)

"...create 400 foot waves along the east coast."

Guess we better start in on building 401 foot sea-walls! Made out of Adamantium..

Whew... (1)

doru (541245) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054807)

At a first look I thought it was 2088 !

I am relieved.

I have also run a simulation of this (4, Funny)

teamhasnoi (554944) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054831)

Tens of thousand dead, thousands drowned, babies killed and maimed.

Homes destroyed, their leader missing, pandemonium falling into utter madness.

Roads crumbled, storehouses plundered, the sky is literally falling.

You can really mess up an anthill when you're 10 years old.

Who cares (0, Offtopic)

Timesprout (579035) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054836)

We have wrecked the earth by then and will all be living on other planets in the solar system. Set your tivo's now cos presumably they will televise it.

Re:Who cares (1)

richie2000 (159732) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054873)

The end of the world will not be televised.

UC SANTA CRUZ (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054840)

I'm weary to trust anything that comes from a university that doesn't have grades.

By 2880 (4, Interesting)

djupedal (584558) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054841)

...this UCSC computer simulation will be as high tech as a 2880 refrigerator magnet.

You guys really sure you want to put this out there? They are gonna LTAO...

Re:By 2880 (1)

Soko (17987) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054911)

..this UCSC computer simulation will be as high tech as a 2880 refrigerator magnet.

However, they'll both do the exact same thing when they discover such an object approaching the earth:

"Yo, human. Bend over and kiss your ass goodbye."

Soko

Yep (0)

The Bungi (221687) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054852)

And Slashdot will post the story twice, generating its last dupe before the waves hit, the nuclear winter sets in and civilization ends.

General Burrito, the site's cyborg manager, will draw his last Neodimium gas breath listening to audio emails from Neptune yelling "DUPE!!! U R TEH SUX!!!".

There is some relief though (1)

evil9000 (72113) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054857)

I'm glad i wont be living in Atlanta in the year 2880 - that one looks deadly.

Atlanta Niggas will blame the white honkies (-1, Troll)

zymano (581466) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054951)

A 400 foot tidal wave will clean out the ghetto. So it's not too bad.

We will hear some real tight rap shit come out Atlanta.

comet strikes earth (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054870)

Wasn't this one of the disater options in SimEarth? And it's so much easier, quicker, and cheaper to model it in SimEarth than those other computers...

Asteroids: liberal myth (2, Funny)

GoatPigSheep (525460) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054880)

I find it funny how people talk about these so called "asteroids" that might strike earth and cause massive destruction. The idea of "giant rocks flying around in space" is almost impossible the fathom to any educated christian scientist. I believe these "asteroids" are just liberal propaganda.

First of all, many people claim asteroids are what killed dinosaurs millions of years ago. This is impossible. God created in the earth in 6 days, not millions. It is entirely possible to assume then that dinosaurs and humans roamed the planet at the same time. At the time of the great flood (caused by God, not an asteroid!) the dinosaurs were too big to fit in the arc and that is why there are none today.

Any educated right-wing christian knows that God is the only one who will cause massive destruction to earth, not a "floating ball of rock from outer space". There is no way to predict God's actions, we must simply have faith and follow his word. No tsunami will sweep away the faithful.

Asteroids are simply the liberals way of trying to disprove God and attack the believes of educated right-wing christians! Do not accept this misinformation!

Re:Asteroids: liberal myth (1)

Narphorium (667794) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054933)

LOL, somehow I don't think that an ark (regardless of the size) will get you out of this one.

One things that I haven't seen addressed ... (5, Insightful)

rock_climbing_guy (630276) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054883)

Everyone's talking about an asteroid slamming into the Atlantic Ocean. It's 2 AM and I honestly am not going to RTFA before I crash tonight, but it seems strange that they always consider the idea of the asteroid slamming directly into the surface.

There are many distinct ways that the asteroid could hit. I imagine that after you determine if, when, and where it impacts the Earth, the next most important thing to know to weigh the consequences would be at what angle and trajectory it hits at. I imagine it would be quite different if it hit at a 1/16 * Pi angle and streaked across the sea than it would be if it hit orthogonal ( right angle ) to the surface.

Also, I imagine the rotation of the asteroid could be a major factor, as well as its shape and composition.

Re:One things that I haven't seen addressed ... (-1, Offtopic)

rock_climbing_guy (630276) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054931)

Actually, one thing that I hadn't anticipated was that an article about an asteroid report would prompt me to post a comment, which would be modded up, raising my karma from 'good' to 'excellent.'

Slashdot is still a game; we just stopped keeping score.

Not with a BANG but with a 'Kachoo' (4, Insightful)

malia8888 (646496) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054905)

From the article: Although the probability of an impact from 1950 DA is only about 0.3 percent, it is the only asteroid yet detected that scientists cannot entirely dismiss as a threat.

IMHO mankind has more to fear from viruses than tsunamis generated from wandering asteroids. I am afraid that something very tiny will wipe us out, not someting very big.

I am not a biologist, but I bet the threat is more than 0.3 percent that this could happen. This SARS outbreak has me thinking.

One handgrenad planted on the side of the asteroid (1)

zymano (581466) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054921)

Plant the grenade or small explosive right now ,could move it enough out of projected orbit.

Don't discount it.

You got a supercomputer???

atleast the trolls will be happy (-1, Offtopic)

ramzak2k (596734) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054938)

BSD & Stephen King will all be really dead then. They might shed a tear for the goatse guy.

So I am going to die (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054948)

... when I am 906...

Obligatory Homer Simpson Quote (2, Funny)

LoztInSpace (593234) | more than 11 years ago | (#6054952)

Relax - when it hits it'll be no bigger than a Chihuahua's head.

Good (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 11 years ago | (#6054971)

Anything to stop the horror that is Adam Sandler. I'll pay any price.

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