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235,000 Fewer Programmers by 2015

CowboyNeal posted more than 10 years ago | from the negative-forecasts dept.

The Almighty Buck 982

RonMcMahon writes "According to a CNN Money article, Forrester Research is predicting that there will be 235,396 fewer Computer Programmers and Software Engineers employed in 2015 than there are today in America. This is a 25% reduction in the number of positions from today's depressed numbers. This sucks. I know that many companies are moving work off-shore, but wow, that's half the population of Wyoming!"

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Fresh pork (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763000)

Third time lucky..

Re:Fresh pork (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763016)

Damn, I wish I could mod myself down for trolling..

Time for a career switch... (4, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763002)

I think I will start looking now or perhaps move to India.

Re:Time for a career switch... (4, Informative)

snkmoorthy (665423) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763077)

As far as I know India doesn't have an H1B equivalent, so even if you are willing to relocate, it is near impossible.

FIRST POST (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763003)


Big Deal (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763004)

its called survival of the fittest... if you aren't good enough to keep your current job, you better start looking elseware....or go into management

Re:Big Deal (4, Interesting)

the uNF cola (657200) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763035)

Ack. Please don't go into management. If you can't develop, what are your chances of understanding the developers in which you lead? Not that all developers will be great managers, but I like having someone above me who understands what I'm doing though may not duplicate it.

Re:Big Deal (2, Offtopic)

Amiga Lover (708890) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763048)

> you better start looking elseware What a neat term for software made by overseas contract programmers Elseware

Re:Big Deal (5, Funny)

Amiga Lover (708890) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763071)

(damned mozilla)

> you better start looking elseware

What a neat term for software made by overseas contract programmers


Re:Big Deal (1)

Andy_w715 (612829) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763074)

ok maybe i can't spell :) sometimes great ideas result from mistakez

Re:Big Deal (1)

Amiga Lover (708890) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763090)

That works for me!.

Too many people in IT because it pays (5, Insightful)

Manic Miner (81246) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763066)

When I started doing work with computers, and my computer degree, I did it because I enjoyed the work and appeared to have a natural talent. This was the case for most people on my degree course.

A couple of years ago I worked for a UK university and I was so disapointed at the number of people who had no interest in the subject but doing it awayway. It seems that people think you can get a high paying job in IT, so will get the degree in hopes of getting a job despite not having any enthusiasm or talent or skill.

Maybe this will be a good thing, we might see less people going into IT just because they think it will pay well.

Re:Too many people in IT because it pays (4, Interesting)

nich37ways (553075) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763096)

In a number of printed articles in Australia recently there have been reports of the decrease of people enrolling in IT for this very reason.

I honestly have never been able to understand why someone would choose a career they have no great intrest in simply because they could make fairly good money.

There are a lot of places you can make good money apart from IT but people seem to have got caught up in the IT boom period and thought that IT was the only way to make good money and those not in IT would be at a disadvantage somehow..

Re:Too many people in IT because it pays (1)

psavo (162634) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763184)

I'd guess it's because they see nothing else interesting, so they choose the 'least evil', at least 'paying' option. FWIW, many people just don't have anything that is interesting for them. Poor bastards.

Re:Too many people in IT because it pays (2, Interesting)

ScottSpeaks! (707844) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763175)

"we might see less people going into IT just because they think it will pay well."

Not if the job counseling professionals have anything to say about it. Every time a manufacturer shuts down a plant around here, you hear them advising laid off workers to get training in "high tech", because that's where the jobs are today and in the future. <sarcasm>That must be why it only took me (ex-analyst, 15 years experience) almost a year to land an entry-level tech support job that pays what I made 10 years ago.</sarcasm> A friend who works for a local tech training outfit moans about all the people in her classes lately who can't even find their way around a keyboard.

Re:Big Deal (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763070)

No it isn't. It is called corporations *thinking* they can save money. All the actual studies show however, that it doesn't work.

Re:Big Deal (1)

molarmass192 (608071) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763136)

I hope those studies are right. If they aren't, then the pain is just beginning.

Re:Big Deal (1)

Cragen (697038) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763072)

I agree, but I look forward to having less people in the field that do not truly love the labor of producing and managing the thing. The best have never been "fittest", so far.


Are you in the real world? (5, Interesting)

ejbst25 (130707) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763083)

You obviously aren't seeing what others are seeing. Everyone I talk to who has seen offshoring agrees that basically the company axes entire projects at a time. So, even if the numbers look like 10% of the software developers in your company are laid off...they common criteria for layoffs is not how good you are...but what project you are on.

I love how that fallacy endures. (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763089)

It's not survival of the fittest. That little token of darwinism doesn't apply to people caught in our social networks, unless you describe fittest as best networked.

Indian programers aren't better, and there is a good chance they're not cheaper, when the accounting is finished. What is true, is the guy who sells their services plays golf with the guy who signs the paychecks for programmers. And that guy's primary responsability is to allocate resources to solve problems he most likely doesn't understand in any meaningful fashion.

When that guy signs a pink slip, it's as much with the intent of pleasing his friend as it is helping his compnay through a process he doesn't understand, and through a proxy who also likely doesn't understand his business or the ones he takes on as customers.

They aren't rich and powerful because of what they know, but WHO they know. Rest assured when the morons are done exporting all the unskilled and skilled labor overseas, for essentially no reason, the next question they'll ask themselves is why all their managers are over here?

At which point the US becomes a gated community for the rich, with livin service industries.

I know I'm brushing up on my car detailing.

Re:Big Deal (1)

ooby (729259) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763115)

It isn't always a matter of being good at your job... []

First! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763007)

First! Yeah!

hz (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763008)


I knew I should have gone for an EE degree (5, Funny)

Knetzar (698216) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763010)

Or maybe I should go and get my MBA in the next few years

wow i was going to guess... (3, Funny)

stinkfish (675397) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763011)

...235,395 fewer!

Re:wow i was going to guess... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763171)

I was guessing how they could predict with this precision.

Programmers == Carpenters?? (5, Insightful)

MontSegur (75369) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763013)

I wonder how many carpenters there are in the US? Most programmers are little more than carpenters who don't have to provide their own tools... "You buy me that shiny 64-bit hammer and I'll *pound* nails with it, Baby!"

Re:Programmers == Carpenters?? (5, Insightful)

sql*kitten (1359) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763154)

Most programmers are little more than carpenters who don't have to provide their own tools...

I'm sure, had Slashdot been around back in days of Steampunk, there would have been many articles cursing the disappearance of steam-engine related jobs, complaining that these days, steam trains were only used overseas, etc, etc. Meanwhile, the invention of the aeroplane would receive only a passing mention, everyone would think it was cool, then they would go back to complain about the decline in the use of steam technology.

Moving jobs overseas isn't a bad thing. One thing the third world is good at is being cheap labour*. One thing the third world is very bad at is innovation**. Westerners who are good at what the West does - innovate - will be as in demand as ever. Those who can't or won't work to remain on the cutting edge, well, there's no helping them.

* I'm not saying this is a good or a bad thing, just that it's a historical fact.
** Also a historical fact. Look at where the new knowledge was and is created over the last 500 years, in technology, pharma, media, you name it - in the West. Even big countries like China and Brazil use Linux, for example - they didn't (or couldn't) start from scratch.

Your own fault. (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763015)

Next time get a union.

They don't even have to be run by mobsters or be unreasonable or powerful. Look at SPEEA.

Worst case scenerio is you gain a little bit of appreciation for the uncertanty that faces a lot of factory workers.

Re:Your own fault. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763122)

well what you may not understand is union's can push you into things you dont want. Dad was a member of one when it came to metaltrades and hes had more than once when he COULDN"T WORK because the union said not to, and sometime's it took more than 3 week's to get back to paid work. That 3 week's could pay for a family to eat when the union doesn"t care about that only about forceing the company to tow its line

Re:Your own fault. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763191)

Darn right - you're much better off having your salaries slashed 50% and then your entire industry moved offshore to pad the bonus of some little MBA shit who has never had a real job in his life. Much better. Don't want any temporary inconveniences like collective action threatening your boss, oh no.

Remember 5-day work weeks? Weekends off? Unemployment insurance? Health and safety standards? Dental plans? Little things like that are the legacy of the unions.

Taking them away is the legacy of the union-busters. Yup, never unionizing was a damn smart move. Wave bye-bye to your jobs now, people.

Re:Your own fault. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763195)

Those times he sat out, either for his union or others, may be in fact what kept him his job.

Seriously, look into the history of unions. They've done a lot of good. Have they done some bad? Yeah, resisting modernization probably wasn't brilliant. Letting the mob take some unions over wasn't the best idea either. But they haven't done the damage the CEO have (savings and loan scandal [Neil Bush with an honorable mention], Enron, Worldcom, Citigroup and their "accounting") For every Andy Grove or Warren Buffet who understand not only their jobs, their company, their products, their customers, in short their fucking role in the market, there are a hundred others who still can't figure out their stock options in their executive compensation package. And that's the *REAL* problem.

Absolutely right (4, Insightful)

Marxist Commentary (461279) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763135)

I have never understood the verulent resistance to unionization amongst the IT folks I know. During the "heyday" of the dot-com era, no one wanted to think about such issues, as you could seemingly skip from one job to another with a seemingly endless step up in salary each time. However, the realities of a capitalist system are inevitable, and the market dried up.

Think of how much better off in terms of job security, benefits, and salary the IT industry in the US could be today had they unionized early enough. Protection could have also been built in to protect the proletariate from the export of jobs overseas. It's truly a shame.

Re:Your own fault. (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763144)

unions are for fags and commies

Re:Your own fault. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763162)

What is sad are the people here who say "200,000 less IT workers mean only the best and the brightest will be working in the field," and somehow never fail to rank themselves in the "best and brightest" group. It must be nice to have lived such a sheltered life up to this point. Some people have to learn lifes lessons the hard way.

The real question (2, Informative)

iamdrscience (541136) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763019)

I think that more important than the number of employed programmers and engineers is the number of people that program in their free time. A lot of programming employment opportunities are just soul draining code lackey positions. A lot of the really interesting, creative work comes from peoples' hobby projects.

pateNTdead eyecon0meter: population could drop (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763024)

dramatically, should the creators' planet/population rescue, & newclear power mandates be 'put off'.

everybody's a 'programmer' of sorts now.

consult with/trust in yOUR creators.... stuff that really matters is happening now.

Yet another annoying 'I got FP!' thread (1)

-kertrats- (718219) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763027)

However, i've actually got something useful to thunk. This is obviously just another sign of the US economy in a state on non-bull market. Not a falling market, just not one that is going up, like it seems to be. Notice that a ton of these jobs are those of basic secretaries? No, nerds, not BASIC secretaries. Anyways, I dont really have a thought, just wanted to add my 6.1 cents.

Whatever happened to... (1)

Rainier Wolfecastle (591298) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763028)

I'm not American, but from an outsiders's POV, one of America's defining aspects has always been its national pride. Whatever happened to that "Made in America" pride?

Re:Whatever happened to... (2, Funny)

Frequanaut (135988) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763059)

It's too expensive

Re:Whatever happened to... (1)

viagara jones (689956) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763064)

Thing is that's gone to be replaced by 'what ever suits big business is good for the US' attitude especially prevalent in the current administration. Still at least it's not as hypocritical as Clinton's reskilling platitudes when blue collar workers lost their jobs in manufacturing.

Re:Whatever happened to... (3, Interesting)

swb (14022) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763179)

Still at least it's not as hypocritical as Clinton's reskilling platitudes when blue collar workers lost their jobs in manufacturing.

While the expected outcome of retraining for some segments of the blue collar workforce (older, less skilled) may have been overly optimistic, the idea wasn't at all hypocritical, it was logical -- a guy that worked with machines might likely have become retraied for running a more sophisticated machine tool or something.

Unfortunately, retraining can't take into account the zeal at which corporate management has decided to move ANY job which pays more than minimum wage overseas. In an era in which Wall Street considers a company with jobs that pay something akin to middle-class wages as having "uncompetitively high labor costs", then there will be nothing to retrain for, except operating the fryer at the local corporate fast food place.

In that reality, retraining is fruitless. But we're racing to the bottom, creating a plutocratic society where government and industry collude to create a handful of very wealthy people and a sea of working poor, with little in between.

Re:Whatever happened to... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763065)


Re:Whatever happened to... (1)

battjt (9342) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763079)

It was too expensive.

Re:Whatever happened to... (2, Insightful)

Scarblac (122480) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763111)

You've been importing way more than you've been exporting for years now. For a while foreign investors used these dollars to buy up American companies and other investments, but at the moment that doesn't look very promising (and the interest on dollars is way too low). As a result, the world doesn't need any more of the dollars you give them so the dollar is now falling as a rock.

Pretty soon, the rest of the world will be too expensive instead.

Re:Whatever happened to... (1)

paRcat (50146) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763107)

Based on your name, I would think this would be obvious, but...

"Made in America... No Thank You" - Marge

Re:Whatever happened to... (2, Informative)

molarmass192 (608071) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763118)

It got outsourced to India! On related item, I remember when *everything* at WalMart *had* to be made in America but those days are long gone. In fact, you'd have a hard time finding anything at WalMart that *isn't* made in China now.

Re:Whatever happened to... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763132)

USA the center of all capatilism, (New York) and also the center of some of the worlds poorest. A disgrace.

Also nothings much made there, good advertisement for capatilism successes.

Its a junkhole.

Forrester Research? Pffft. (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763029)

Why would anyone listen to these same clowns who predicted 10 trillion dollars of e-commerce in 1999? I can also pull numbers out of my ass. I believe programming jobs will increase by 20% in ten years from current levels.

Re:Forrester Research? Pffft. (5, Insightful)

perly-king-69 (580000) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763138)

Mod parent up.

I'd like to see some research carried out on the speculation these guys (Forrester, Gartner etc) come up with.

They can't even agree upon present day issues, for example, the TCO of Linux is cheaper than Windows or vice versa.

What hope have they of predicting the future.

Re:Forrester Research? Pffft. (1)

color of static (16129) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763193)

Because they are more often correct then Gartner. Of course neither would like you to know about the research outfit known as "Coin and Dice" which has a 20% higher accuracy rate in the last decade.

Honestly, these guys don't sell interest in their products without some splash. I've seen good work and bad work come out of the research industry. Unfortunatly, we tend to act more on the bad.

They will have machines that program for you. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763030)

And here I am paying coders like a sucker.

Are details on who they are calling programmers? (4, Insightful)

Shivetya (243324) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763034)

The numbers won't mean much unless you can define who they are? I know some web page designers who are classed as "programmers".

the, err, rest of the world (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763041)

> This sucks. I know that many companies
> are moving work off-shore ...

Why do you think an American deserves a job more than some hard-working, enterprising person in Bangalore [or wherever]? (PS: I'm american.)

Why? (1)

FatSean (18753) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763113)

Because he likely lives in the United States. Given the choice between having a job available to one of my countrymen, and available to some 2nd world citizen, I would choose my own. If anything, to help strengthen the economy I depend on.

Re:the, err, rest of the world (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763129)

Why should we ship outr jobs elsewhere? Who cares about folkjs from India? I don't. Well... at least not compared to Americans. Why should we support others when we receive no support back? We need to go back into isolation and let the world see how they do w/o our charity.

Re:the, err, rest of the world (5, Insightful)

Qzukk (229616) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763134)

Why do you think an American deserves a job more than some hard-working, enterprising person in Bangalore [or wherever]? (PS: I'm american.)

Why do you think a corporation deserves market protection from cheap foreign goods if they're exploiting the lack of labor protection?

If companies want to play the "global market" game, then either A) labor should have tarrifs or B) goods should not. Make it fair for everyone involved. Joe Normal will be able to afford to continue his lifestyle after being laid off in favor of people from Esbotsunania who do a quarter of the work for a tenth of the pay. At hourly wages, he'd probably even be able to buy more DVDs at hong kong prices, more toys for his kids imported direct from china without all those brand names. And afford cheap software written in India by the independent programmers who are not owned by American corporations (or those who defect from their outsourcing agreement and set up a competing shop).

Oh, I wonder why??? (2, Insightful)

JamesP (688957) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763044)

1 - DMCA (nuff said)
2 - ***A (FTAA, NAFTA, IndiA , RIAA (for paying 25 million to a scheme that can be defeated with the shift key)

3 - Welcome to the Global World, it's about time America gets their ass pounded by it too...

Will this match the population reduction? (5, Interesting)

Knetzar (698216) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763045)

Think about it, the Baby Boomers will retire and fewer kids will go into computer science due to the lack of programming jobs.

Hopefully that will reduce the supply of programmers enough so that the good ones will still be able to find jobs.

Fewer Kids ??? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763192)

The children of the baby boomers will be a bigger demographic bulge than the boomers. True, some baby boomers will retire soon. Others are a good 30 years away from it. 2015 is about when Social Security goes bankrupt too, so many won't ever be able to retire.

Tip (-1)

cablepokerface (718716) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763046)

I read about this before, the key is learning though ... Make yourself an expert in a certain area and therefore unmissable for a company. You will most likely belong to the group of working developers.

So what will all these people do? (2, Funny)

danormsby (529805) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763053)

This is a lot of people changing career. What will they all be doing though?

Will they be:

Professional hover-board racers?

Anti-gravity technicians?

Time-travel holiday sales people?

Apparently. (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763055)

The bush party is working on a new one..

Taiwan Pride!

Alice has been downsized today ! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763056)

Alice [] got downsized today :-(((
This REALY sucks ;-)

Not to be partisan or anything (3, Informative)

Alien54 (180860) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763057)

but I have been sort of intrigued by the graphs seen on this page [] , based on official government data.

Of course, it is notup to date on the stock market, but I suspect that that may be a shell game anyhow, at least on some level.

Computer Science is not everything anymore! (5, Insightful)

Shisha (145964) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763060)

Well, for the last two years, I had the feeling that this is exactly the way things are going to work out. This is why after completing my Computer Science BSc. I decided to learn Mathematics properly instead. So now, I'm 6 months away from completing my MSc. in Pure Mathematics and I know that I have learnt things that mostly have not changed for the last 100 years and are not going to change for the next 100 years all that much and so I don't need to worry about what the _next_ big thing will be, because mathematics will always be relevant. It will never be BIG in the same sense as aviation industry was once big and in the same sense as the dot com rush, but it will always be OK.

Of course this does not stop me from getting employed as a programmer if I wanted to.

So what the hell are DeVry / ITT gonna do? (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763063)

I thought there were "hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs in IT"? I'm gonna sue these bastards and get my money back!

I beg to differ... (5, Interesting)

Gethsemane (733524) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763067)

Remember what Dell just did recently? Most big business's were complaining that Dell's over seas tech support was a farce and demanded english speaking tech support reps that new the nomenclature of IT. There was such an up roar, Dell did move their Big Business tech support back to the US.

I think after awhile with enough uproar from consumers, their slumping tech support award will cause them to follow suit for the average joe as well.

I think we can extrapolate this to all of the other area of IT, especially programming. You still need a high level of written and oral communication to perform your job effectively. That is whyI think this big push for over seas IT jobs will eventually backfire in the face of big business.

Specialize or change fields (3, Informative)

nich37ways (553075) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763068)

Note I am in Australia which has some of these problems but nothing it would appear in comparison to America.

As much as it does suck I honestly see the only real way forward for software engineers and programmers is to either move into or start a research and development company and develop highly specialized software or to move into a new area of IT.

Honestly I would prefer if you didnt move into the system administration area, that would be mine, ;)

The only way to keep your job secure is to work in face to face/onsite support or IT management although I am sure some clever CEO/CTO will figure out how to move those overseas as well.

One of the funniest things I read this year was a guarntee from our American management that they would not be moving the software development section from Australia to America from Australia, it was originally an Australian company so we didn't steal any American jobs :)

The real thing I want to know is where will the jobs be that are not outsourced to other countries and why will they be the ones to stay in comparison to those that are sent overseas.

Good (1)

confused one (671304) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763073)

That means I'll be able to find a decent job in 2015... With everyone else out.

Wait, Damn, I'll probably be changing careers too...

A few years back... (5, Insightful)

joostje (126457) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763076)

A few years back, analysts were predicting numbers of programmers to skyrocket. They were wrong. Now they predict them to go down. Why should I believe them this time?

To me it looks like they just take the trend of the past 2 years, extrapolate it to 2015, think of a few pages worth of `reasoning' why the numbers go so much down/up, and, hey presto, a new raport available!

Re:A few years back... (1)

paRcat (50146) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763121)


I couldn't have said it better myself.

They may still have a point (-1, Redundant)

FanaticalDesperado (717503) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763187)

A few years ago, the analysts prdeicted that the number of programmers will skyrocket. And, it will. They just won't be employed here in the US. This article is pointing out that there will be fewer programmers in the US. The total number of programmers will increase, while the number in the US decreases. The numbers, however, are completely made up. Never trust an analyst's numbers.

Quite natural (1)

MadFarmAnimalz (460972) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763081)

Given disparaties in education between the first world and less developed countries, it is only natural that employment requiring less education will gravitate to where there isn't a high cost of education contributing to average compensation.

Conversely, the higher-level jobs will remain in societies where the labor pool is qualified enough.

To go out on a limb, there is something about this which reminds me of back when this country (Egypt) was under british colonial rule; the cotton was grown here, sold cheaply to European manufacturers, made into textiles, clothes, etc. there, and sold back to Egypt.

No judgment passed, it's a simple case of value-added and relative ability to contribute this value.

So what? (Sc0re:-1, Unpopular) (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763086)

Most of them are fucking incompetent anyway. The collective stupidity among them is as in the rest of the USA, which is why places like China and India are soon going to overtake you lazy underworked capitalist scum.

Perhaps the reason why... (1)

dollar70 (598384) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763087)

I hate to beat a dead horse, but let's face it: We're probably legislating a lot of programmers out of business with software patents. How much incentive to program will you have when anything you write could potentially get you sued? Unless you work in a firm with the paralegal-lawyer-power to cover your butt, you might as well be testing grenades by pulling the pins and waiting to see if it does anything.

Not worried (0, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763100)

A good U.S. programmer == 10 mediocre Indian programmers

Suppose the mediocre programmers in India make $10,000 a year. A good U.S. programmer should therefore be able to make $100,000. Now before you call me racist, a good Indian programmer also == 10 mediocre Indian programmers. However, you can bet that they will get their ass to America to make a decent wage.

In conclusion, if you are good, you don't have anything to worry about. Also, I hope that most of the mediocre U.S. programmers find a different profession because I'm sick of having to work with them and clean up their mess.

Is nothing sacred? (5, Funny)

CompWerks (684874) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763102)

I just want to sit in my cube, program and interact with as little of management as possible.

I should of known it would never last...

Re:Is nothing sacred? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763117)

Go work for a midget.

Re:Is nothing sacred? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763164)

should have known

Don't jump to any conclusions (5, Insightful)

mcpkaaos (449561) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763104)

I seem to remember that not more than 10 or 15 years ago, people were predicting that by the end of this decade there would be such a demand for programmers, due to every little thing in your house having a computer of some sort in it, as to cause a shortage of supply. Well, that just didn't quite happen the way we thought it would. One might say it's due to the .com bust, one might not. The twists along the way don't really matter much. Any way you look at it, the predictions were and continue to be unfulfilled. I wouldn't bet my future on this "new" one coming to pass either. I would presume that these predictions rely heavily on current or near-recent trends (especially when programming could be concerned). Who knows what the next couple of years might bring, let alone the next decade.

Re:Don't jump to any conclusions (1)

JimB (9642) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763142)

I agree with this sentiment. Don't forget, By 2019, there will be MILLIONS less folks in the workforce. The Baby-Boomers will (almost) all be retired by then !

Job Security (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763119)

Computer programmers just need to start using the goto keyword and global variables more and do less code documentation and object-oriented programming.

Welcome to the pain hardware went through (1)

color of static (16129) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763137)

This is the same turmoil that hardware engineers went through for numerous years. When I completed my EE I realized that hardware (while very fulfilling) didn't pay as well as software. Western software engineering has become over inflated and expensive in the world market and we are going to see some pain.
Looking at history though, the cleaning of house will be OK in the long run. Some people will have to find new careers, but the pipeline of new people should also shrink somewhat. Look around you. How many of your co workers got into programming soley due to the money, or really don't have a love of it but of the paycheck. I think you will see the part of the 25% that won't come from reduced entries of new programmers.

Major issues that ought to be addressed (3, Interesting)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763140)

Nash was right... nuff said.

I see this as a "what I want" syndrome that is going to bite people in the ass in the long run.

First off you have the american side of it. The CEOs will ship the jobs off shore, americans will lose jobs and have to go on pogey. So yeah, the CEO makes a short-term profit but pays for it in taxation in the end.

Second you have the foreign side of it. They're willing to sell their time for a heck of a lot less than the americans [leading to the questionable quality issue which is another debate alltogether]. However, in the long run thy're just poising themselves to earn the least amount of money possible. [e.g. no long-term profit].

So really outsourcing is a nearsighted "fix".

However, there are several real concerns. Often software developers are paid way too much for what they produce. $70k/yr to produce buggy programs [re: name the last 10 windows games...] is excessive. Also this is partly americans own fault. Everyone and their brother is now a "computer scientist" [having finished their 3wk course at Devry or what not]. Now the CEOs are just pushing this farther by grabing rice farmers and what not and calling them computer scientists.

So in reality y'all are gonna taste your own medicine in the end!!!!



Excellent! (4, Interesting)

wackybrit (321117) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763143)

Perhaps it's just me, but I think it's GREAT there'll be less programmers. I can't see the amount of programming work dropping significantly by 2015, so it means more work for less people, and perhaps our rates of pay will become more on a par with plumbers, builders, and carpenters once again.. instead of being at Wal*Mart levels.

This is a great market readjustment.

Learn Hindi (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763145)

Seriously. There's two things we can do.

1) Scale back the H1-B program to 1980s levels. If they don't make us train our replacements here in the USA, then there will be more USA jobs.

2) Impose reasonable import taxes on services. If they can tax me for the pay for the roads that Joe CEO drives in his Lexus to work, then they can tax offshore software development.

Translation (2, Insightful)

lpontiac (173839) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763146)

"America and it's corporations will be less relevant to the rest of the world, IT-wise, in 2015."

How many were working for Microsoft? (1)

cpghost (719344) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763149)

So Microsoft's End-of-Life is 2015?

Hard to predict (1)

Jump (135604) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763153)

I think a prediction like this is very hard to make. Surely you can write better and better software and eventually, you have a tool which can do some job perfectly. But then new things become important and new tools develope. Only few programs survive for years, or decades, and there is always something new comming. You may think, PC's become like a 'type-writer' in the end, something rocksolid and unchanging. But: type-writers changed a lot as well and presently computers with 'Word' are not just the newest kind of 'type-writer'. As far as jobs go, I think there is -always- a need for mind workers. Even if we could build smart AIs, they would be more of an extension of our brains, not a replacement. Why? Simple answer: if could down the branch your sitting on, you will fall down the tree! If the society doesn't provide jobs anymore, then either everyone owns a one-man-factory which does everything for free, or one owns all but cannot sell anything.

Something the article didn't mention (5, Interesting)

taliver (174409) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763156)

There will be fewer people vying for those jobs, according to
this. []

So, the jobs that will probably be lost are the ones that suck anyway, the ones that require just painful coding line after line of repetive garbage.

The jobs that will be left will be the high-paid positions of QA-- the ones to go through all that garbage written by the lowest bidder and fix it. O the joy we will have.

what do you expect? (1)

oohp (657224) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763158)

With so many people doing IT, what do you expect? This is no surprise at all.

Revenge of the suits. (1)

Shugart (598491) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763167)

Perhaps out-sourceing is revenge for the .com fiasco. Out-sourcing has been available for many years. Why is it becomming popular now? I wonder, in part, if the suits blame geeks for the .com crash conveniently forgetting the ridiculous business models.

Moehahahaha (1)

Mr2cents (323101) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763168)

All your programmers are belong to us!

Do you really still believe analysts? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763169)

Outsourcing is a model that has proved to be wrong, I write it in capitals WRONG, meaning that it has not provided the expected benefits in term of savings and it has caused a degradation in terms of quality of service. Managers follow fashons, showing the savings of offshoring is easy on a balance... especially if you never done any outsourcing before!! (so due to ignorance) there is an increase of managment costs that is not always easy to spot plus there are other hidden costs arising, when you have your development team on the other side of the planet. And even assuming savings are actually there, what are the lossess due to lost of the business knowledge of your IT department? When there will be an economy upturn, and that could be very well on its way, the name of the game will be again "time to market" rather than cost savings and what are the companies you want to bet on at that point? those one having their in-house departments or those one that have their IT departments in India, Vietnam or wherever? As far as analysts are concerned, all they do is to put two points on a board and draw a line, anybody remember Nasdaq 10000?

why (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763174)

Why would you need software developers by 2015 microsoft will issue you software if and when you need software. Why would you ever need to write your own. -:)

For those thinking "I might be in the lucky half" (2, Insightful)

Rogerborg (306625) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763178)

Are you working in the private sector? Then take it from me: you won't be in the lucky half.

U.S. Tax Dollars for Government Contracts (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763183)

It is simply bad public policy for U.S. government agencies to out source these jobs to foreign workers. Until Americans regain a sense of nationalism, this will continue to happen. The Chinese and Indians are laughing at us.

People coming in (1)

m00nun1t (588082) | more than 10 years ago | (#7763188)

Is it just me or is every second taxi driver you meet doing a part time course in programming or network admin? People still think they can do a 2 year part time course, get some cisco certificate, and walk into a high paying job. They are wrong now, and if this report is true, they will be even more wrong in the future. It seems these training companies are just cashing in on their ignorance.

Thanks to Open Source, (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7763194)

reinvention of the wheel becomes less and less of a business opportunity. So we get more of a market for reselling instead of reinventing the wheel.

Expect more jobs for telemarketers and less for engineers. That's progress.
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