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Forbes Ventures Bold Predictions For IT, Linux

simoniker posted more than 10 years ago | from the crystal-ball's-warranty-void dept.

Technology 387

LinuxThis writes "Everyone's favorite, Daniel Lyons and other Forbes journalists have made some bold predictions about IT in 2004. Interesting quotes include 'Microsoft warms up to open source, and tries to make a buck off it', and the best, from our main man Daniel Lyons himself: 'The end of 'free'. Free didn't work for dotcom pet food stores, yet much of the rhetoric around technologies like Linux and voiceover-IP still involves this crazy notion that companies can make money by giving things away. They can't.' Even better, he suggests: 'SCO Group will settle its lawsuit against IBM. Both sides will declare victory. The Linux community will turn on IBM.' This is interesting considering his previous observations about OSS.."

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This is it. (0, Offtopic)

Compact Dick (518888) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851866)

printf("Goodbye, cruel world!")

Daniel Lyons is a -1, Troll (1)

leonbrooks (8043) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852027)

Yes, very funny and you forgot the \n.

Did I mention that Daniel Lyons is a troll? If the uninformed didn't ever take him seriously, you could safely ignore him and thereby instantly improve your life. Unfortunately, there will always be the uninformed. So take them time to point out that he's been 100% consistently wrong about Linux since Day One, and shows no sign of changing his habits.

Re:Daniel Lyons is a -1, Troll (3, Insightful)

ScottGant (642590) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852049)

Yes, he is. It's getting to the point that he's starting to sound like one of those "Apple is dying, Apple doesn't have a future, Apple can't compete, Apple is dying" drones that go on year after year.

He seems to be trying to start that tradition now with Linux/Free/Open source software, even though it's going strong now for 10+ years and getting stronger and stronger.

The guy is a joke. And it's obvious no one who reads Forbes takes him seriously, as Linux still makes huge inroads to business.

Mad troll (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852045)

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Jebus christ! (-1, Flamebait)

eddy (18759) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851876)

DON'T FEED THAT FUCKING TROLL!

Sheeesh.

Don't go there. Don't comment. Just ignore the fucking idiot. No, no one [important] listens to him. The only one's that do already belong to his little choir. There's nothing to "debunk".

Ignore.

Re:Jebus christ! (1)

jobsagoodun (669748) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851919)

Absolutley. He's a grade A asshat, and his only purpose in life is to drive people to Forbes.com with stupid deranged inflamatory drivel.

It should be obvious... (5, Insightful)

Raul654 (453029) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851878)

...to anyone, technie or luddite alike, that IBM has a vested interest in seeing this lawsuit through to the end and making sure SCO is crushed into a fine-grained dust.

Yes, it would probably be cheaper for them to stop short. But that's kind of like negotiating with people who take hostages - you do it once, and it encourages others. Which is why this one is going all the way to the end, and IBM will not settle for anything less than complete victory.

right conclusion, wrong reason (4, Insightful)

js7a (579872) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852003)

IBM has a vested interest in seeing this lawsuit through to the end and making sure SCO is crushed into a fine-grained dust

IBM could hardly care less about SCO's fate. What is at issue here to IBM is the far more important issue of their software systems' legitimacy in the eyes of the market. SCO has done far more damage to that reputation than anything Microsoft could ever dream of, given their position as a clear competitor to both IBM and SCO. Since SCO/Caldera was very much a Linux company, their FUD rumors have had a tremendous chilling effect.

Now, there is no way to undo that damage with a settlement, as far as I or anyone I've read on Groklaw can tell. Even if SCO admits egregious errors in public, without a clear ruling from a judge and/or jury on the issues of IBM's rightful ownership of their e.g. AIX code, all of IBM's competitors will forever be able to twist the knife in their back. It no longer matters what SCO says or does, because their credibility is only intact with their own investors at this point. IBM, on the other hand, needs to clear their name.

IBM will not settle for anything less than complete victory.

...so of course I agree with you there.

I predict that I'll get laid... (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851880)

As a backup plan I have $2 and a plane ticket to Thailand.

End of free? (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851882)

I thought the end of free was coming when the tech market crashed.

Why won't free just end once and for all so these stupid researchers will stop with these inane predictions?

Join the Simoniker Fan Club! (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851883)

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Re:Join the Simoniker Fan Club! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851909)

how am i supposed to poke fun at you little pussies if you leave the channel invite only? :)

2004? i smell pussy (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851890)

i think i'm gonna get some now with all this match making advertising on slashdot!

OSDN is a disgrace!! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851908)

Well it is quiet apparent that OSDN has disgraced itself, first by selling subscriptions to /. - but now having realised that this money making venture has not been sucessful, they are now prying on our weaknesses by submitting us to endless hours of personal/match making ads! I for one and i'm sure many others of you out there think this is the low of the low! Time to jump ship to www.kuroshin.org [kuroshin.org]

Re:2004? i smell pussy (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851949)

Yeah, if you like fat, sweaty and psychotic lunix girls who threaten to poke their eyes out because they think you're cheating on them.

why geek girls turn into psychos? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851994)

Amen to that.

Every geek girl I've ever gone out with has turned out to be a fucking psycho.

It's probably the low self-esteem/confidence. Deep inside they can't believe that someone finds them interesting/attractive and then they go all paranoid.

Re:2004? i smell pussy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852070)

Could be worse. They could threaten to poke MINE out.

Re:2004? i smell pussy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852090)

Wrong. You're a man, you can defend yourself physically.

I've run into psychos who threaten to poke out their eyes, kill themselves or threaten me with a rape-charge if I don't "admit that I was out with someone else".

Re:2004? i smell pussy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852131)

What if she threatens to poke your eyes out while you sleep?

The rape charge is pretty bad though. What did you do? Admit it?

Re:2004? i smell pussy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852154)

I told her that she's fucking insane. Good luck pressing rape charges without physical evidence or motive (our friends knew we were sleeping together).

I admit there were a few anxious days before she finally came to take her stuff out.

FAGS & JEWS FUCKING KILL THE WORLD (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851896)

MODERATION IS MASTURBATION

Not Exactly (3, Informative)

Ashcrow (469400) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851903)

It's not 'the end of free' for Linux by any means. Debian, Gentoo, LFS, Slackware (probably) and many others will still be free because of either their non-comercial status or their comitment to the community. After all, who wants to pay a company to use software they wrote? Not me ...

Microsoft warms up to open source. . . (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851911)

Is that what they call a blow torch being applied to the Belly of the Beast these days?

How to make money giving it away for 'free'. (5, Insightful)

Mmm coffee (679570) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851913)

It is possible to make money giving stuff away for free, but you have to be very precise about how you do it. You just need to give out enough of your product to make the public want the stuff you need to pay for. A good example of this is the IRL company 'Primerica'. They're a financial managment service that gives out financial evaluations for free. That is, they will take what you make, how much you want to retire off of, how much debt you have, etc and figure out a way to make everything managable and possible. However, they make money off debt consolidation so you can pay off your bills faster, insurance, etc. You go in, get everything sorted for free, and then hopefully you'll get your loans and such from them. They're making a very large profit from this strategy, from what I can tell. Another good example is a band who releases low-bitrate MP3s for download off their website. You get the songs and can tell if you like them or not. However, if you want the versions that don't sound poor with all the case artwork and such then you'll buy the CD.(This is what got me to buy both of Rilo Kiley's CDs.) I've noticed that the reason a lot of these companies fail at selling stuff by giving other stuff away is because they give out the wrong stuff for free. It's like crack - give them just enough to give them the need for your product and you're set. Kinda like Google's expert search. Can search google for free, but if you need help finding that one obscure thing then you can pay to have others with a lot more experience do it for you. I'm rambling. Damn, do I love coffee.

Re:How to make money giving it away for 'free'. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851921)

Jesus christ, don't you know how to use the fucking enter key?

Re:How to make money giving it away for 'free'. (1)

Mmm coffee (679570) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852151)

Sorry bout that. Had it formatted right, but submitted it as HTML formatted. Whoops.

Making Money From Free Stuff (4, Insightful)

Our Man In Redmond (63094) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852011)

Air is free, yet people make money from scenting it, compressing it or incorporating it into other products like balloons or ice cream, and selling the result.

Water is free, yet people make money from purifying it, bottling it or flavoring it, and selling the result.

Linux is free, yet people make money from packaging it, enhancing it and supporting it and selling the result.

Linux, like air and water, is free for all, yet through effort and ingenuity one can still profit from it.

Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851914)

I know none of you cunts ever read the article, but check out the link to the Microsoft quote. Some chick called Victoria Murphy. Whoa, fucking hell, I'd bang her! I wonder what her cunt is like.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851976)

I wonder what her cunt is like.

If you weren't a virgin, you'd know that every pussy feels that same.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852060)

> If you weren't a virgin...

If he weren't half-blind from continually jerking off, he'd recognise a slag when he saw one.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852073)

I don't know.

She's kind of cute. Perhaps a little bit too wholesome-looking, but still cute.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852091)

Naaaah. Looks kinda cheap. Must be the karma bonus she receives from doing something IT-related that makes her look cute to you.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852105)

I like the wholesome ones, especially if they've got religious convictions.

It's always a pleasure to slowly corrupt them with nasty sex, booze and drugs.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852161)

especially if they've got religious convictions

You, sir, are a grade-A asshole. Well, there's going to be an extra hot seat reserved for you in the afterlife.

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852197)

My choirboy fucktoy
My uninhibited nights
Exploration Saturdays
Explicit exotic erotic nights
Sexual Soulmates
Sexual Villians
Shared and showed
Dared to know
Our deepest darkest
Desired dreams
Fetish flourished
Mistress Mommy
And Daddy's girl
A voice that touches
My very soul
Special love
A lovers special
Hands and touches
Lavish licks
Sordid sucks
You in me
Devoured whole
Made love to your cock
Erotic dreams
A nipple and cream
Gave you that taste
My most erotic moment
They were all you

Re:Victoria Murphy in the Microsoft article (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852050)

Her cunt smells like a tuna salad sandwich which you bought from 7-11, and then forgot in your car for two weeks.

BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (-1, Offtopic)

SexyKellyOsbourne (606860) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851918)

I was going to post, but there's currently a national tragedy -- TV cameras on CNN and other major news networks are showing a huge cloud of smoke rising from Times Square [b]RIGHT NOW[/b].

Re:BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851932)

WTF u talking about?

Re:BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851967)

Asshole!

There's no explosion. You're a one fucking sick individual to play with our emotions like that!

Re:BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (1)

Zontar The Mindless (9002) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852054)

Original poster is a well-known troll.

(Except to you, apparently.)

Disappointed (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851972)

Disappointed that the security measures taken actually managed to stop all attacks? Do you hate the present administration so much that you hope to see thousands of innocent casualties?

Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852006)

How do you know there were any terror attempts?

I say these on-and-off terror alerts are just a way how the neocons keep control over the public and politicians who might otherwise resist their agenda.

Once you have a scared public, you can strip them of every civil right and they'll thank you for it.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852081)

And what would you do with your precious civil rights if you get nuked/gassed to death?

Do you want to take that chance? I don't. Besides, after eight years of that degenerate Clinton in the White House, America needs a leader who puts America and Americans first. The weasels at UN can whine all they want. We don't care.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852087)

I, as a European, like the current US policy. It's the beginning of the end for them. And idiots like the parent poster make it all work. :-)

Really, people. You vote for actors and dyslexic people as leaders and get pissed when your president gets a good blowjob. Just how fucking stupid are you?

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852093)

I couldn't care less about Clinton's blowjobs.

What matters is that he lied to the public, sold military technology to the Chinese, did nothing about bin Laden and was on UN's leash. Fucking traitor.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852107)

of course bush never lies to the public. riiiiight..... and his efforts against bin laden aren't very successful either. they only show that he doesn't understand how al-quaeda works (or more likely: he doesn't care at all). do you really think it all depends on bin laden himself? wake up, fucktard.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852129)

Initially you people said the war with Iraq would lead to WWIII. When it didn't, you began to talk about the war would turn out like in Vietnam. Well, now it's clear that it didn't. You said that Iraqis would not accept an occupying force. Wrong. You said that we would never find Saddam. We did.

You still want to bet that we will not find WMDs and bin Laden?

You're just blinded by your anger at being proven wrong again and again. The coalition of the willing did the Right Thing by bringing down a tyrant and you liberal whingers just can't stand it. We'll bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East within a decade, but I suppose you don't want that because "we use the wrong methods". Idiot.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852157)

as if you dork care about bringing freedom and democracy somewhere. you will follow any asshat who will hold a speech telling you about how great and good and right you are. if bush said "let's stick all ragheads into concentration camps and gas them, it's the right thing", you would immediately buy it.

and btw:

- no one really believed the iraq war would lead to ww3
- there are similarities with vietnam.
- saddam is irrelevant, finding him hasn't done anything good
- it's been over half a year now. they failed to find WMDs. don't make me laugh by turning up some fakes now.
- bin laden is irrelevant. kill him, someone else will take his place
- no one has been proven wrong. the war is still on, people are dying, the iraqis hate us and the country is in chaos. the methods were wrong and every idiot can see it. even you could if you would take off your magic bush glasses.

Re:Terror alerts == neocon's powerplay (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852120)

As I said: no problem with me. If you want your leader to suck you dry so he and his buddies can get richer, go for it! If you want him to piss off as many people as possible, creating more hate torwards the US and attracting more terrorists so that you can feel proud about being American, sure, make it so!

Personally, I'd look for other qualities in a leader, but how do you explain that to a citizen of the country that created the Jerry Springer Show...

Re:BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851977)

This sickens me. You think this is funny?

Re:BREAKING: HUGE EXPLOSION IN TIMES SQUARE (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852082)

u, sir, r n 1d10t.

Fear of free-dom? (5, Insightful)

pacamac (692186) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851927)

Why is everyone so afraid of the concept of anything being 'free'? Is it that radical of a proposition that a broad-based community can create and support an infrastructure without the need for it to turn into a for-profit corporation? Community WLANs, VoIP, Open Source projects....aren't these things all technologically and socially proven by now? All of these analysts and experts can't be that shackled to the bottom line, can they? Paradigm shift, anyone....

Re:Fear of free-dom? (4, Insightful)

kubla2000 (218039) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851959)

Yes, I think they are shackled to the bottom line. They don't appear to be able to grok that the very thing which is now stimulating the economic revolutions and microsoft squeeze in the corporate space is a community project and that it's available "free".

It seems to me that IBM and Sun have pegged exactly how to "use" Linux. You feed the project and feed off others feeding the project. You then wrap Linux up with non-code-related extras which you sell for a bundle. Any monkey can install Linux on a piece of hardware, but it takes a very skilled monkey to plan and successfully migrate a company from old software / hardware to the newly installed Linux box[es] with minimal disruption to that company's work-flow. The bigger the company is, the more that kind of expertise is valued.

What the Forbes writers seem to have confused is a paradigm, but perhaps not the one you mean. They're still looking at the number of units Microsoft pushes and the price tag attached to these and then try to compare that ratio to the ratio of units shifted by IBM and the price tag on those.

I think where they need to be looking is at the services companies who rely on Microsoft and comparing them to services companies like IBM. What's the profit margin for a Microsoft consultancy that comes in to migrate a company from NT to Server 2003? What's the profit margin for IBM to migrate a company from NT to Suse (or, more lately, Redhat)? How many of these migrations are taking place? How long to they take? How much do they cost? What are the support contracts like?

As long as "analysts" try to compare the "cost" of a Redhat Enterprise license with Server 2003 license, they're comparing fish to rugby boots. The license is not where the game is at.

Re:Fear of free-dom? (1)

cloricus (691063) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851987)

It's like the people who just cannot understand the concept of open source; you explain to them that people spend time on something and make in free expecting the rest of the community to do the same thus allowing work to be free because every one wins.
Though the only question you get from these sort of people is "but how are they being paid and if they dont why bother?"
This sort of non ability to understand how the internet runs explains this sort of thing.

Re:Fear of free-dom? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851997)

If you're not a communist when you're young, you don't have a heart. If you're still a communist when you grow up, you don't have a brain.

While many good things come from people who give freely, there are too many people who just take. There is no paradigm shift unless you've found a way to change people. In the wake of every other new technology cultural optimists proclaim that it will finally bring an end to scarcity, yet it never happens. In their enthusiasm they simply fail to recognize the new bottlenecks which are created by the latest technology. Take a closer look and I'm sure you'll recognize that community WLANs, VoIP and Open Source are indeed very limited resources in one way or another. That means people will compete for them, and unless you're still young enough to think with your heart, you'll understand that it also means they won't be free for long.

false analogy (3, Insightful)

kubla2000 (218039) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852023)


http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/falsean.htm

It's really a shame you lead with a fallacy because it highlights your bias and obstinance.

By its very definition, "Open Source" must remain free. Perhaps you mean you that will cease to exist? Well, perhaps. But if it does then it's because it's unable to keep pace with the innovations from the non-Open Source development programmes. That's possible, but not likely.

Re:false analogy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852158)

I'm not suggesting that Open Source will fail. It's just never going to be mainstream, at least not for free. I know you think Open Source isn't communism, but that is just a reflex which is rooted in the fear of being likened to a failing economic model. There are niches in which small-scale communism works. These niches are homogenous communities with strong common desires. In the mainstream on the other hand limited creativity faces a multitude of desires, thus creating scarcity. Sooner or later Open Source contributors will realize that in the mainstream not everybody wins, just everybody else. Then code may remain open, but its production won't stay free (as in beer). Heck, it already isn't free anymore. Its direction will be guided by financial interests.

Re:Fear of free-dom? (2, Insightful)

Sivaram_Velauthapill (693619) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852030)

Anything that is free is a threat to capitalism. So the capitalists don't like to allow such things. Forbes, in particular, is run by capitalist elites.

Sivaram Velauthapillai

Re:Fear of free-dom? (1)

Cragen (697038) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852176)

Just curious. How do you make a living? Getting paid by some greedy capitalist or charging other people for doing something, I bet. I'd mod you down, but it's more fun replying. Happy New Year to you, too, sir.

Re:Fear of free-dom? (1)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852214)

I could say the same to the GPL people. If you want to free your code don't impose restrictions on distribution. I mean shouldn't free as in in both freedom/beer mean that some company can take your code and use it for a billion dollar project all hush-hush without making it public?

Sure it may suck but in reality people are still likely to contribute to a project even if it's public domain.

Tom

SUN (2, Insightful)

axxackall (579006) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851934)

Scott McNealy and Sun Microsystems: Worth watching, though they may be difficult to see as they sink further and further out of sight.

No need to be a wizard to see that time for overpriced and underperformed (and unreliable) hardware (and OS) in internet-related business is finished. Today I can quicker deploy several (even dozens) of Lintel boxen running all needed application services distributed, then I did it before with a big 15K or few E4500s. With Lintel I save money in all aspects (cost of deployment, TCO) and I keep speed and quality not less (often even better) than with Sparc. SUN's customer base is collapsing to those who *do* need a *really* big iron. Just like SGI's one did.

Re:SUN (4, Insightful)

afidel (530433) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851963)

"...(and unreliable) hardware" *cough* *sputter*

I might call Sun hardware a lot of things but unreliable ain't one of em. Sorry but the only x86 hardware that comes close is the top end of the Proliant line and the "mainframe" stuff from Unisys. As far as performance goes remember that mainframes are often several generations behind the bleeding edge and yet most of the worlds usefull computing is done on em, some of the time its about knowing that a job will get done on time, not how quickly it *might* get done.

Re:SUN (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851989)

Yawn... get lost. You obviously have never worked with Sun equipment and just want to sound smart. No one is buying it, however.

Re:SUN (0, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851983)

But SUN machines look cool. I especially like the mousepads that come with them. Really, Sun makes the best mousepads I've ever used, no questions asked.

And besides: If you grok Sun, the lesser Linux geeks in the company will PhEar you.

on crack (1)

10am-bedtime (11106) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851936)

gratis doesn't work businesswise, but there is value in liberty nonetheless. of course, when you're on crack this is hard to see, so these ad-sellers cannot be faulted for their lack of vision. you can safely ignore them and their ludicrous predictions, until the day they actually participate and either write and distribute code, write and distribute docs on that code, submit useful bug reports, or help others to do the same. that will be the day they become part of this community, no sooner. that's all there is to it.

Delhi Method Forecasting .. Re:on crack (5, Interesting)

leoaugust (665240) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851998)

The method of forecasting by asking a few people what they think is going to happen is called the Delphi Method [hypermart.net] It is, in my opinion one of the overall weakest methods by far, and especially if the views are collected the way Forbes has done. In normal practice the initial and raw opinions are improved by feedback to the group for more refinement, which obviously has not happened in the Forbes article - hence, the almost idiotic "predictions."

And as you rightly said, these people don't have the faintest clue as to what is happening. Their job is to get paychecks by telling their clients what they want to hear ... and they will keep on telling it ... Henry Blodgett anyone ? [consumerjusticegroup.com]

There are tons of other methods to do Technological Forecasting, [hypermart.net] (an article that I wrote many years ago) and I wish some more work that has more solid basis is presented for Tech Forecasting at /. We deserve better "predictions" than this ....

Help me! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851940)

Help me!

I've got the worst hangover ever. I've puked at least four times already. The last two were dry heaves. It fucking hurts!

I also groped my best friend's girlfriend last night. Goddammit...

Re:Help me! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851948)

Drink LOTS of stuff with sugar. Apple juice or sweetened (sugar, not artificial) tea works well. Above all, you need to rehydrate.

Call him and apologize. That should (mostly) make up for it. Welcome to 2004!

Re:Help me! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851957)

I've found out that sometimes drinking a lot will only make you vomit more, but you're right about rehydration.

I've usually solved this dilemma by drinking first a glass of water with medical carbon in it. That seems to calm down my stomach.

I can't get medical carbon. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851975)

Will water with pencil core shavings work?

Pencil core (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7851988)

No. It's graphite: not porous and activated like medical carbon.

Try drinking small amounts of water at a time. If you can't drink plain water, squeeze in a bit of lemon or - as one of the posters above proposed - sugar.

Don't drink anything carbonated or too sweet (especially if you drank a lot of sweet drinks last night).

I'm just kidding. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852004)

I try to drink a glass of water between drinks if I'm getting serious about it. Slows me down somewhat and makes a huge difference the next day.

Re:I'm just kidding. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852032)

Absolutely. And always make the last drink non-alcoholic. Get a real large cup of iced tea or something, you'll praise yourself that you did the next moring.

New Year in Melbourne (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852018)

I had an excellent New Year. Beer, good food and sweet singaporean pussy.

Re:New Year in Melbourne (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852038)

and sweet singaporean pussy.

How much was she?

Re:New Year in Melbourne (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852066)

A few drinks, dance and a breakfast this morning.

Re:Help me! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852022)

Feel the pain and learn something from it: Drinking is dumb.

After my last hangover, I woke up somewhere in the old city of Dusseldorf in the morning, two of my friends lying nearby. I barely managed to prevent some smartass coming by from calling the police/ambulance/whatever and having us removed from there. Even though I could barely walk or articulate myself, I somehow managed to call us a taxi and bring my friends home safely. I felt absolutely miserable for the rest of the day and swore that I'd never get drunk again.

By the way, to the present day, no one of us has a clue how we got out of the bar and landed on the street on that day. God knows what I might have groped the evening before! Haven't touched alcohol ever since.

what does it matter some little amount of money (3, Interesting)

demonhold (735615) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851950)

...if I can get a linux distro that recognizes the bloody luscent driver that came with my a20m thinkpad.

Now centering ourselves on the topic. I love Linux, but it's still mainly for the computer geek or the Soho user that has time enough to experiment and discover things for him/herself.

Distros has to center themselves. The fact is that many of them offer too many options and most people are a little bewildered: "Geez I liked it better when it was only Windows, Office and IE."

On the other hand, the way LINUX has implemented new solutions over the years (USB, Firewire, all sort of mass storing devices, and so on..) it's simply amazing.

I love the current policy of offering things free for download or very cheap in a package and charging for the know how. When more and more people say to his boss Geez, I like Linux plus OpenOffice better, and the boss adds some figures in his head we'll start seeing things change

Who reads Forbes ? (2, Insightful)

Krapangor (533950) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851956)

Come on, magazines like Forbes are just low-level MBA entertainment.
Real buisness people don't read articles how this or that develops: they just getting their work done right first time.
No real entrepreneur cares about Forbes etc.

Re:Who reads Forbes ? (1)

Sivaram_Velauthapill (693619) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852039)

I don't know any executives and have no idea how they spend their time. But are you sure these guys don't read business magazines and stuff? I think businesspeople DO read things like Forbes, Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, The Economist, etc.

Those sources are where they get their ideas and strategies. Where do you think they get their strategies like downsizing, outsourcing, mergers & acquisitions, and so forth?

Sivaram Velauthapillai

Re:Who reads Forbes ? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#7852142)

It almost seemed there as though you think Forbes has the same sort of standing as the Wall Street Journal!

Morons (4, Informative)

arvindn (542080) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851969)

These financial worms and suits are, almost by definition, too stupid to understand that free means freedom and that linux is a technology, not a product, etc. So we invented the buzzword open source. It helped, but now its abused left and right and MS wants to jump on the bandwagon by showing parts of its source under an NDA which you can't even compile.

The shills at Forbes are so obsessed with money that they have no understanding at all of the technical aspects of SCO vs. IBM, and live in a reality distortion field. Remember the outrageous article that called linux users terrorists? And of course, the "Linux's hit men" article showed that the author is unable to perceive the difference between GPL and public domain. These people are mentally retarded, there's nothing else to describe them.

If they were dealing with an entity with lots of money they would likely have been sued for libel or whatever, but since its a community they can take their liberties with their "analysis" and "predictions". When I looked at Truman holding up a copy the Chicago Daily Tribune [uncp.edu] making fun of the analysts' predictions (in the recent cell phones article), I realized that this is perhaps what we need. And in fact, slashdot could be the ideal vehicle for that. What I mean is, if we had articles laughing at them and ridiculing them and exposing their idiocy every time one of their tech "predictions" went hopelessly wrong, and if some other news outlets picked up on it once in a while, then may be it would knock some sense into these morons' heads.

Re:Morons (1)

Sivaram_Velauthapill (693619) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852048)

Capitalists are never wrong. Forbes is run by some of the top capitalists in the world.

If you assume that, you'll live a happier life...

Sivaram Velauthapillai

Re:Morons (1)

Billly Gates (198444) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852106)

Agreed. They are right with little money like the .com.

The difference is the money is not required to make Linux and OSS grow. If your whole .com was funded by stocks and they are used to pay employees, guess what happens when they go down? They cut into operations and people leave if they can not get paid.

Volunteers and a few paid engineers make Linux. It will always exist.

Forbes see's bright things for Linux and mentions how it might never make alot of money. Both are true. I mean lot as in Microsoft, Sun, IBM, etc.

Redhat can make money but not nearly as much. The key is to let volunteers do the work. Otherwise the price to make it goes up.

Re:Morons (1)

Citizen of Earth (569446) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852109)

Capitalists are never wrong. Forbes is run by some of the top capitalists in the world.

You certainly seem to be down on Capitalism in your postings. (Of course, few people actually understand what Capitalism actually is.) So what is your favorite "ism"?

Some other ridiculously bad predictions (4, Interesting)

MysteriousMystery (708469) | more than 10 years ago | (#7851973)

Another ridiculously bad prediction in his article (unrelated to OSS but I'm sure willl be fascinating to slashdotters) is his final bold claim of "To repeat last year's prediction: "In 2004, Nintendo will have followed Sega's lead by exiting the console business." In 2004, it will." This guy obviously doesn't pay much attention to any sales numbers outside the US where Nintendo is well ahead of Microsoft in terms of console sales worldwide. In fact Nintendo was close to getting caught up with MS in North America but a shortage of Zelda bundle Game Cube's towards the late stages of the holiday season caused a slight drop in sales. He's just trying to make a lot of US corporate friendly predictions get people talking, he either doesn't believe what he is saying or is simply looking for attention. A lot of it is pretty ridiculous.

Contradictions too! (2, Insightful)

hkmwbz (531650) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852182)

There is obviously something wrong here. He even contradicts hiself:

"PlayStation Portable will fail to make significant inroads against Nintendo's Game Boy. The handheld gaming market is huge--the Game Boy Advance outsells all consoles combined"

Then:

"In 2004, Nintendo will have followed Sega's lead by exiting the console business"

So Nintendo will keep its dominance in the handheld console market, but they will also exit the console market?

Hello? Handhelds are also consoles!

I'm sorry, but where did they find these people? In addition to your comment about the GameCube, Nintendo actually makes a profit, and in addition to dominating the handheld market, it also has lots of cash in reserve for bad times.

These "analysts" really piss me off. Why do they get to write these things, and why do they get the publicity, when they are obviously incompetent fools? Does anyone have this moron's e-mail address?

Big mistake (3, Insightful)

Our Man In Redmond (63094) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852001)

The end of "free," huh? So, the way I read this, just because someone failed to make money off of an untenable business model, the people who make and use Linux, who weren't doing it for money in the first place, are going to fold up their tents and head off into the desert?

The more I read pieces like this, the more I think that people like Lyons are just plain incapable of "getting it." Their world view just doesn't allow for people doing a large-scale project like Linux because they enjoy it, and doing such a good job of it while they're at it. So, they try to map what the FOSS community does onto their world view, and it's hardly surprising that the mapping looks pretty strange to us.

Ah well, the FOSS community will continue to do what it's been doing all along, irrespective of what people like Dan Lyons thinks of it. Happy New Year.

Woah, hold on a minute there... (2, Interesting)

sparklingfruit (736978) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852010)

"Microsoft warms up to open source"

I'm sure this is all MS FUD, with their "Shared Source" initiatives giving it to a privilaged few, it seems that Microsoft is even less willing to give away their precious source code these days.

To quote bill gates: "To all those open source types who came down here looking for my code, I have only five words for you: From my cold, dead CVS."

Re:Woah, hold on a minute there... (1)

sparklingfruit (736978) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852016)

Please overlook my blatantly incorrect use of the word FUD. Many thanks, and a happy new year to you. :)

Re:Woah, hold on a minute there... (2, Funny)

JarekC (544383) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852036)

To quote bill gates: "To all those open source types who came down here looking for my code, I have only five words for you: From my cold, dead CVS."

I think if Bill Gates was to say it, it would rather be "From my cold, dead Visual SourceSafe".

A mixed bag this (4, Insightful)

Ashtead (654610) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852028)

5 bold predictions, indeed. Let's look at some of them:

1. Lisa DiCarlio: More cash-rich tech companies start to pay dividends. Microsoft continues to struggle to make its software secure, which means another great year in 2004 for Symantec. The complexities of integrating Legato and Documentum weigh down EMC. HP's stock doubles. IBM buys SCO to shut it up.

These don't look too far-fetched except for the last one. If anything I've seen on groklaw has any connection to reality at all, IBM will fight to the end in this particular battle. Score 0.7 tempered by a -1, Unlikely...

3. Daniel Lyons SCO Group will settle its lawsuit against IBM. Both sides will declare victory. The Linux community will turn on IBM.

IBM vs SCO as before, IBM will not stop at anything less than full victory. And IBM as the new enemy? Whatever would have happened to Microsoft then? He might be seeing something I do not see of course, it just seems too unlikely. Score 0.2

4. Victoria Murphy: Microsoft warms up to open source, and tries to make a buck off it.

Much as I'd think that would be a smart move on MS' part, I am not sure if they can leave their current closedness behind in time. To them it would be a big change. Maybe this explains what happens to MS in the previous prediction. Score 0.6, I Wish it Were True.

What does concern me is that some managers may read all of this and not realize it is all matters of opinion.

When will asshats like this learn? (1)

thenumberofthebeast (700033) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852041)

That Free (as in freedom) is just the evolution of the industry. The cost of software will eventually approach zero because of the availability of cheap, powerful hardware and the widescale long-term dissemination of enough information that anyone with an interest can learn to program.

Eventually making money out of software is not going to be a matter of selling 'bolt on' proprietary parts because eventualy even those are going to be re-created by some enthusiastic hacker with a few free evenings and enough of an itch.

Selling pre-packaged boxed product can only generate small profit for those companies with a distribution channel that can entice people to actually buy (and I don't see too many GNU products in PC-World).

IBM realises this, and has made the strategic decision to support and utilise open software development precisely because most of their cashflow comes from service. This is the future, and one where income comes from service, not the value of the IP contained in some artificially constrained 'product' is one that we developers should embrace, as it presents a future of opportunity for those of us with talent.

Why Would IBM Settle? (2, Interesting)

jwbrown77 (526512) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852047)

IBM employs legions of full-time attornies. SCO has to hire so many that (allegedly) it's the reason why they lost money last quarter.

IBM doesn't stand to save much money by settling, if any. And by not settling, they have the benefit of crushing this lingering nonsense about SCO in the minds of many PHB's who would be hesitant to buy IBM's Linux products, no matter how unjustified.

I have to wonder who the heck this Lyons guy is. He acts like he has his fingers right on the pulse of the Unix/Linux/OSS community, when his opinions couldn't be further from what many in that community feel. Reeks of ulterior motives. Too bad Joe Forbes Reader doesn't know any better.

People here... (2, Interesting)

ChocolateCheeseCake (728330) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852084)

lose sight of the fact that Linux isn't the one that isn't ready, it is the distributors who aren't integrating the various OSS projects with in a consistant manor. They're the source of the problem.

When you pay for Red Hat Linux, you don't pay for the software but for the time and investment the likes of Red Hat make IMPROVING the bundled software and ensuring that there aren't any issues when running the software in tandem with other pieces of software.

In otherwords, the distributors are like a resturant, they choose the integredients and it is up to us to pay for the work done.

What is also holding Linux back is a lack of third party developers. Sure, we have people here who just love to hate Microsoft but lets be completely honest, what is Microsofts greatest asset? its strong developer base which is created through good development tools and leadership.

Just look at Red hat, they refused to pay a piddly $10 per-unit fee to SUN for the ability to bundle StarOffice 6/7. To me, it simply re-enforces the notion that we have distributors unwilling to make the necessary investments to get the ISV partners onside.

Just look at the developer conference and how much time was spent EDUCATING their partners, great and small, about the merits of their future product range. Love them or hate them, you can't take away the fact that they do provide great leadership when required.

As much as I hate the annual MSDN developer crusades that sweep through towns and have people who speak with the same pasion of Billy Graham, the fact remains, the people who will make the decisions over whether to get behind Linux are the same who are impressed with flashy shows, fast talking buzz word compliant spokes persons and great corporate boxes at the local sporting fixture.

IBM to *Settle*? (1)

Zontar The Mindless (9002) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852088)

WTF is this guy smoking? (And can I have some please?)

IBM has right on its side AND fabulously deep pockets, whereas SCO is quite likely to implode in another quarter or two, since it has *no* seriously marketable products or services (and seems hell-bent on doing everything it possibly can to scare and/or piss off any potential new customers, to boot). Big Blue can well and truly afford to wait SCO out.

IBM has every reason NOT to settle the suit, and every reason to pursue it until SCO is a glassy, smoking crater.

Lyons (1)

Queuetue (156269) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852113)

I'm normally not one to pick on someone like this, but Daniel and I have had some personal emails back and forth over the FSF thing, and...

Is anyone else amazed to discover that he looks almost as dumb as the things he writes?

I too have a prediction for 2004 (4, Funny)

theolein (316044) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852147)

I predict that Daniel Lyons will, after continuously having made completely false analysis and predictions on everything from SCO to Linux, either lose his job at Forbes (watch that MBA smile dissappear in a split second when he gets the slip) or be moved to the comics section, where he will at least do somethiing productive at Forbes.

I see this guy (and most other so called tech analysts for that matter) as one of the worst things to ever happen to both markets and journalism. This is one of those people who were still pushing the dotbomb revolution when it had already collapsed, and then, in true two faced lying son of a bitch sell your soul marketing fashion, turn around and say they had seen it all coming and that people are dumb for not having listened to him.

I think that the best remedy for scum like this would be to actually give them the job of ceo of some tech company and see how long it takes them to run it into the ground.

When were dotcom petshops free? (2, Interesting)

16K Ram Pack (690082) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852159)

Anyone?

Victoria Murphy (1)

Qbertino (265505) | more than 10 years ago | (#7852205)

Curiously enough, the imho most precise, educated and arrogant-bullshit-free predictions come from a woman.
On second thought, maybe not that curious at all.
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