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Interview with ATI's soon-to-be CEO Dave Orton

michael posted more than 10 years ago | from the purty-pictures dept.

Graphics 138

wolfgang writes "Tom's Hardware has published an interview with Dave Orton, who will become ATI's next CEO in June. Orton talks about the transformation of the company within the last three years, the current competition with Nvidia and what can be expected from graphic chipsets in the near future. Orton believes that ATI can grab more than 50 percent market share in the desktop market in the short term."

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Nver! (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086188)

It'll nver happen.

hhe awhat (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086190)

hay11111111111 ^_^

My money's on embedded devices (5, Insightful)

ObviousGuy (578567) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086231)

Powering those little cable boxes and HDD recorders is where the money lies in the near to mid-term.

The desktop is for all intents and purposes a locked up market. Get a deal with Intel to fry your chip onto the mobos and you're home free.

But the embedded world is still the Wild West of technology.

Re:My money's on embedded devices (5, Insightful)

TrueBuckeye (675537) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086382)

I would disagree that the desktop is locked up. Over the past 7 years I have bought 5 video cards, only 2 of them from the same company. 2 of the makers no longer exist at least in the market (Sierra and Voodoo) and I have gone back and forth over the past few years between Nvidia and ATI depending on who has the better product at the time.

And as mentioned in the article, the desktop market is now decided in large part by who controls the high end segment, which is a constant battle between the two (although ATI has had the advantage for the past 12-18 months).

It is far from decided yet. Remember Voodoo went from market leader to bankrupt in about a year and a half.

Re:My money's on embedded devices (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086523)

The desktop market is locked up. Don't fool yourself. Chipsets are designed with multimedia on board, it's become a challenge to find a motherboard without LAN/Audio/etc.

On top of that, there are two companies that do basically all the desktop CPUs and two companies that do all the video chipsets.

Breaking into the desktop market isn't just difficult, it's downright impossible.

3dfx was an exception more than a rule. They lost because of nVidia's close workings with MS, as well as their misguided focus on expansion cards over 2D/3D strategies.

Re:My money's on embedded devices (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087383)

When you say Voodoo do you mean a company named Voodoo or 3Dfx?

Re:My money's on embedded devices (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086614)

well as an ex ATI employee who now designs cable boxes I despair - ATI's tried really hard in this space but honestly the settop people are obviously poor 2nd cousins to the PC part of the company (no one except M$ wants directX drivers for a settop) and as chip integration shrinks settop silicon to 3->2->1 chips they're going to lose out to the Broadcoms of the world who have all the experience on the evil analog/digital demod side of the world.

Well... (5, Interesting)

Bishop, Martin (695163) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086240)

What they really need to do is release better Linux drivers, and care more about Linux support in general.

Re:Well... (4, Insightful)

Kenja (541830) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086255)

"What they really need to do is release better Linux drivers, and care more about Linux support in general."

Why? What's the benefit to them? Not a troll, just playing devils advocate.

Goodwill (3, Insightful)

wawannem (591061) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086339)

Goodwill with the tech crowd will go a long way. There are some companies that play nice with our crowd and prosper from it... Apple for one has tried to deliver what we want and now they are doing better than they did 4 years ago.

Although, I think we're both just feeding the troll.

Re:Goodwill (0)

nametaken (610866) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087440)

Agreed. I've long since decided I will never buy another ATI product, even if people say there's Linux support. I spent weeks (on and off) following peoples instructions trying to get my 3d working properly on a radeon 7000. To this day, it has never worked right.

Re:Well... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086342)

Actually I think you're playing more the realist than devil's advocate.

Re:Well... (1)

TwistedSquare (650445) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086347)

A lot of goodwill/good PR from the slashdot and techie crowd (if they produced true open source drivers). This may count for more later on than now - imagine if Linux is big on desktops in say 2010, being able to claim that they were big with open source driver support "from the 'early' days in 2004" may be quite handy, whereas I don't quite see how support like this could have a negative effect (apart from the cost of supplying it).

Re:Well... (1)

SwissCheese (571510) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086968)

Cost is pretty much the negative effect that drives anything in business. If the cost of providing open source drivers now outweighs any potential future earnings, then it won't happen.

Exactly. (4, Insightful)

Saeed al-Sahaf (665390) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086366)

Why? What's the benefit to them?Yes, exactly. What I think will drive ATI to release better Linux drivers is seeing more *commercial* applications that run on Linux and require the cards that ATI makes. There is no point to ATI to invest lots of time / money in developing drivers for a non-existent market. Translation: Games, we need to see more *commercially* released GAMES for Linux.

Re:Exactly. (2, Interesting)

Zooks! (56613) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086572)

Close but Linux is really poised to take off in embedded devices and if ATI is in those devices you can be sure they wil have a reason to make good drivers.

Besides, I don't think games are going to come to the Linux market yet because Linux doesn't have enough of the desktop market.

Re:Exactly. (1)

happyfrogcow (708359) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087327)

but what is the cross over, if that is the correct term, of linux users and game players. "Desktop" is irrelevant in this discussion. How much of the population is in both categories? out of 100% of the gamers, are 50% linux users? 20%? If you are nice to the linux users and market, you might lock in a portion of the gamers to your hardware.

Re:Exactly. (2, Interesting)

incom (570967) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086788)

Even if that were to happen tommorow, most of the linux users would buy nvidia cards, creating an uphill battle for ATI to gain marketshare. No, I think that ATI is counting on linux not being a gaming market, cause they'd lose out if it became one. If they cared about even a potential, or future linxu market they'd be playing nice right now, it wouldn't even cost much to improve thier linux drivers.

Re:Well... (3, Interesting)

kidlinux (2550) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086401)

How about more sales, and a greater share of the market?

It seems ATI has only recently begun to release Linux drivers (no they're not open source, but there's no reason everything has to be.) Whereas NVidia has been supporting Linux for much longer. Recently my ATI card toasted, and I can't get it covered under warantee so I'm looking for a fairly decent but inexpensive card - and this time I want it well supported under Linux. NVidia seems like the only choice for me, since only ATI's most recent line of products (ie: expensive products) are supported.

Anyhow, the Linux marketshare is obviously expanding, and if ATI wants a piece of it, they'll have to do as the parent suggested - support it. It would be nice, because I prefer ATI products for their design, innovation, and the fact that they're Canadian.

Re:Well... (4, Interesting)

lspd (566786) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086786)

NVidia seems like the only choice for me, since only ATI's most recent line of products (ie: expensive products) are supported.

DRI [sourceforge.net] covers virtually all of the ATI chips up to the 9200.
FGLRX [ati.com] covers everything from the Radeon 8500 to 9800.

The only remaining problem is that some commercial developers just assume Nvidia is the standard. DRI in particular has come a long way. I've been using a Radeon 8500 with Michael Daenzer's DRI packages for Debian [debian.org] with few problems. Out of 30 commercial Linux games I have, 3 don't work properly: Descent 3, Savage and Heavy Gear 2. Savage's problem is trivial to fix, the others I'm not sure about.

I'd rather see ATI release the 3D specs on the R300 chips than see further improvements in the FGLRX driver.

Re:Well... (2, Insightful)

JDevers (83155) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086828)

Only the most recent? Ati supports everything from the 8500 up (two generations back, maybe more depending on how you count them). More importantly though is everything OLDER than the 8500 is supported by true open source drivers by the community.

An 8500 would actually be a decent card to look at, it is DX 8 class but is reasonably fast and should be VERY cheap to obtain...

Re:Well... (3, Insightful)

Daemonik (171801) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086422)

For one, the consumer electronics market is wide open.

Most CE products are made in Japan, Korea and China, all countries with a healthy distrust of Microsoft.

They just agreed to jointly develop Linux for their markets.

Re:Well... (1)

DAldredge (2353) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086466)

Well, lack of good linux drives stops me from buying ATI cards for the Windows systems the rest of my family use.

If they had linux support, the cards in those systems might be ATI, but they are not.

Re:Well... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087125)

What DO you buy?
(Not trolling, I really want to know. Matrox maybe?)

Re:Well... (1)

DAldredge (2353) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087295)

Nvidia.

Re:Well... (1)

10Ghz (453478) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086816)

Well, they could get their hi-end cards in to the likes of Weta Digital. When they created SXF for Lord of The Rings, they used Linux on their desktops. Having such demanding and hi-profile customers can only be a good thing. From the PR-value, to the feedback they can use to improve their products.

While Linux is not often used for gaming and such, it's quite often used for content-creation (in this case, 3D-graphics). Not having working drivers available, Ati has no access to that growing market.

Re:Well... (1)

LilMikey (615759) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086925)

I owned a Mach64, R8500, and a R9600. When I switched full-bore to Linux I sold or traded them (ok, the Mach64 just retired) for their nVidia counterparts and intend to stay with nVidia until ATI's drivers improve. Which is unfortuntate as I generally feel the ATIs are better hardware.

Admittedly, I'm just one guy but enough 'just one guys' can make a difference.

Re:Well... (1)

gnu-generation-one (717590) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087002)

"Why? What's the benefit to them?"

A good reputation amongst developers.

(y'know, those people who write linux software in the evening, in charge of deciding which $4000 graphics card to buy 10 of at work during the daytime, and with a load of money to spend on games for their home computer)

Re:Well... (1)

Patoski (121455) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087349)

Why? What's the benefit to them? Not a troll, just playing devils advocate.

The whole 3dfx industry is rapidly standardizing on Linux. This industry buy those "holy crap that's expensive" video cards which have such great margins for ATI.

Also, as the linux desktop gains more traction elsewhere ATI would be wise to have all their Linux ducks in a row. nVidia is just waiting to eat their lunch in that market. The level of linux support nVidia provides makes ATI look like a sick joke.

Re:Well... (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086261)

Yes, because linux is the only operating system out there that matters, and it has such a gigantic share of their target markets. What in heavens name are they thinking?

Re:Well... (2, Insightful)

Adriax (746043) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086300)

Give it time, as more games come out with linux ports, they'll have to pay more attention to linux drivers if they want to compete with nvidia.

Re:Well... (1)

Bobdoer (727516) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086319)

Personally, I don't want them writing Lixux drivers. You've seen what they've done with the Windows's ones. I bet they could even make a BSD box BSOD with their drivers.

Re:Well... (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086350)

Or, they could just let Linux folks write em themselves and save money.

Linux drivers? *ALL* their drivers are crap! (1)

BigBlockMopar (191202) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086841)


What they really need to do is release better Linux drivers, and care more about Linux support in general.

Oh my, no.

It's got nothing to do with Linux.

All of their drivers are crap. Rather than make the ATI MultiMedia Center and hardware drivers *not* blue-screen Windows 2000 constantly, they spent a whole lot of time and effort on making it look stupid (like it was designed by a 17-year-old virgin with anime posters on his walls).

Support for discontinued products is also poor. Come on, when it's obsolete, just release the source for the drivers as you had them. I had several hundred ATI All in Wonder Pros installed at a TV station; they expected their investment was going to last: it didn't. What trade secrets are going to be lost by releasing that?

A long time ago, I swore off ever buying another ATI product.

Re:Well... (1)

percheron_normand (777900) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086909)

Yep... There's no "Linux" word in that interview... Does that new CEO even know what Linux is? I'll continue to stay FAR AWAY from ATI. I'll stick with NVidia!

Re:Well... (2, Interesting)

aquabat (724032) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087292)

I already spent a mod point on this article, but I can't leave this one alone. So here goes...

What annoys me most about both ATi and NVidia is not poor quality in their linux XFree drivers, and it's not a lack of resources dedicated to solving Joe Average's problems getting hardware acceleration working on his new Linspire box from WalMart.

What really annoys me about these guys and other hardware manufacturers is that they are willing to sell me a piece of programmable hardware, but they are unwilling to tell me how to program the damn thing!

What annoys me is their shortsightedness in assuming that keeping this programming information secret gives them a competitive advantage.

What annoys me is their arrogance in assuming that their programmers can write a better driver for their hardware than I ever could.

There is an implicit assumption in their approach that says the user is buying not a video card, but rather an extension to XFree86.

Well, I don't want an extension to XFree86! And I don't want an extension to the Linux framebuffer driver instead! What I want is a piece of hardware, and a GODDAMN MANUAL to go with it, so I can do whatever I GODDAMN want to with it!

CEO-like optimism (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086243)

I predict an extra 15% market share every year for 10 years.

He'd better get busy (5, Funny)

Neil Blender (555885) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086252)

He should start now on that graphics card that longhorn will need.

What's the rush? (3, Funny)

Fearless Freep (94727) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086313)

Longhorn itself doesn't exactly seem to be in much of a hurry to get out the door

Re:What's the rush? (1)

Neil Blender (555885) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086341)

The rush? Doesn't it want a card that is two or three generations beyond what is available today?

Re:What's the rush? (1)

Fearless Freep (94727) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086405)

Probably, as speced now, but it's going to take two or three generations for it to be released.

Or more likely, the requirements will be dropped just to get it out the door.

Re:What's the rush? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087052)

From what Microsoft has said, there's multiple graphics engines for Longhorn depending on which card you have. Worst case, you can use the same accellerated 2D stuff that's in XP today, but no "Glass" (Quartz?) effects.

Re:He'd better get busy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086396)

I just heard from a source inside Microsoft that they just upped the video card requirement. Longhorn will require a card that's at least ten times as powerful as anything on the market today.

Can't.....help....it....trying....to....resist (3, Funny)

Neil Blender (555885) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086451)

Longhorn will require a card that's at least ten times as powerful

and 1000 times larger and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own one.

Re:He'd better get busy (0, Offtopic)

xkenny13 (309849) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086430)

Orton talks about the transformation of the company within the last three years

Wow, he's sure come a long way from being a starship hijacker on ST:TNG [tvtome.com] !!

Re:He'd better get busy (2, Funny)

Ride-My-Rocket (96935) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086643)

He should start now on that graphics card that longhorn will need.

One triple-core GPU with a billion transistors, comin' right up! Now you can view your Windows desktop in 256-bit color!

Go ATI (1)

MrRuslan (767128) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086258)

I used to be a die hard nVidia fan until ATI started to keep nVidia on there toes around Radeon 8500...this type of compitition if the best thing for the consumer...I mean im sure if ATI kept releasing infirior pruducts we would not have soo many monster grapics cards right now...good stuff...keep up the good work ATI.

Re:Go ATI (1)

Adriax (746043) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086340)

Why can't other businesses compete like this?
When these guys compete, they make their products better, when other companies compete, they cut corners.

Re:Go ATI (1)

MrRuslan (767128) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086429)

Because it is rare to see a company as highly motivated to be the best like these too...they want the market share and the bragging right's and they wont stop...AMD did it too with the Opteron...so CPU's are gonna get interesting too I think...So AMD has the bragging right's right now lets see intel top them...

Simple (1)

N8F8 (4562) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086787)

Because they don't have to. And don't think for a minute that the graphics card business isn't rife with IP lawsuits.

Re:Go ATI (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086369)

... there toes ... compitition if the best thing ... im sure ... infirior pruducts ... grapics ...

Welcome to Slashdot Mr 31337 g4m3r! You'll fit right in.

Re:Go ATI (1)

MrRuslan (767128) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086471)

I Don't play that many games and I don't require too much VGA horse power so im not a 31337 g4m3r! but I like hardware and inovations and stuff like this is a Good Thing (TM)

Re:Go ATI (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086837)

You didn't even understand the fucking flame, so yes, you must be a 31337 g4m3r!

Re:Go ATI (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087084)

Spelling is also a good thing. Maybe you can drop the joystick for a few minutes and learn to spell?

NVidia (4, Funny)

gilgongo (57446) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086279)

As somebody who has just upgraded their RivaTNT 64 drivers to the latest version (all of about 5 mins before seeing this /. post) I don't think flattening NVidia is going to be much trouble...

Re:NVidia (1)

cabra771 (197990) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086998)

Hell, yeah!
I just downloaded the newest Catalyst drivers for my Radeon 7000. That baby plays Quake II like a knife going through warm butter now!

short term? (1)

Quasar1999 (520073) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086287)

That's what Nvidia has been banking on... the short term... they're the leader for like 2 weeks... what the hell is the point of looking at the short term? 50% market share short term means nothing... unless you define the length of the term... what is that, months/quarters/years?

Re:short term? (1)

Have Blue (616) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086456)

For those 2 weeks, Nvidia is established as "the fast card" among the early adopters and hardcore gamers who buy a new graphics card every 6 months. This is an important market segment as they buy far more graphics cards than everyone else. They'll also get people who haven't upgraded in a while and think their current card is too slow so they're already looking for a new card but didn't think the previous generation was worth buying. ATI doesn't have enough of a lead over Nvidia to convince people to wait for their releases.

Re:short term? (1)

MightyPez (734706) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086689)

Except for the fact that Nvidia's card haven't hit the market yet. X800 pro's are already shipping and the x800XT is soon to follow.

Re:short term? (1)

thegrommit (13025) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086839)

early adopters and hardcore gamers who buy a new graphics card every 6 months. This is an important market segment as they buy far more graphics cards than everyone else

That segment might be the most profitable in terms of margins, but they are a relatively tiny part of the market. The low/mid range cards are where the volume is.

It's not perfect (primarily because of their games low hardware requirements), but Valves survey of hardware in use [steampowered.com] illustrates this.

ATI doesn't have enough of a lead over Nvidia to convince people to wait for their releases.

Who's doing the waiting? ATI shipped their first X800 cards this week (via Best Buy and their own online store). The first competitive cards from Nvidia (6800 GT) aren't due until mid-june [techreport.com] .

Re:short term? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087097)

but Valves survey of hardware in use illustrates this.

It's a very interesting read.
99.82% of users are using 1 CPU, while the remaining 0.18% have 2 CPU's.

The video resolution results are rather surprising. Thousands of users are still playing games at 320x200.
320x200 - 22K 400x300 - 32K 640x480 - 146K 1024x768 x 276K

By far the most popular processor is the Nvidia GeForce4 MX series - having dual monitor capability is more important than having advanced specialised rendering.

Although the game renderer doesn't provide any conclusive results, it's 21% unknown, 46% OpenGL and 25% DirectX - it could be taken either way.

ATI? (1)

LordPhantom (763327) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086294)

ATI has some great cards, and I think it is possible for us to see that kind of market share.... but can we get some real linux support??? The kinds of geeks who will plop down $400 for the best out there would love to see that. (Even if many games don't run under Linux, we still dual-boot!)

I agree (4, Interesting)

kneecarrot (646291) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086296)

ATI does look well poised to capture the majority of the desktop graphics card business. They have had excellent competitors since the 9700 and their newest generation gives superior performance to nVidia cards with less cooling and power requirements.

Re:I agree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086500)

You're so right, and yet ATI's Linux drivers squander all of that. When they release some Linux drivers that are worth a damn, they'll win me back (recently sold a 9700 Pro and picked up a FX5950).

Re:I agree (0, Offtopic)

dtio (134278) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087348)

> I always save my last mod point to mod up a good troll. You people are too serious.

This is the first time I post a reply to a sig but I do exactly the same.

I usually save a mod point to mod up a very funny and well thought controversial post, even if the guy is clearly trolling.

News for nerds, stuff that matters... with a bit of humour :-)

K.Y. Ho? (-1, Offtopic)

Czernobog (588687) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086301)

I mean come on? What's next?
Vas-Elene B. Atche?

Right. (3, Insightful)

AugstWest (79042) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086310)

Orton believes that ATI can grab more than 50 percent market share in the desktop market in the short term.

That's exactly the kind of BS that CEOs are paid to spew. Does he honestly believe they'll capture more than 50% of the market, or is that the line he's feeding to the board of directors to get the CEO position, which he'll lose when the board gets sick of the BS?

One video card company cannot gain more than 50% of today's market. It's just not possible.

Re:Right. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086415)

Actually it seems you know nothing about the current desktop video market... because currently nVidia hold a little over 60% marketshare LOL.

Re:Right. (2, Insightful)

musikit (716987) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086437)

umm i'm no expect here but don't the Gamecubes use a ATI chip? aren't the Xbox2s gonna be using a ATI chip? no clue what chip the PS2 uses but i could have swarn all 3 systems are designing for ATI chips on the next gen consoles....

given the fact that console gaming is much larger then PC gaming and the fact that the consoles are getting to basically be full blow PCs with special SW wouldn't ATI hold a much larger then 50% marketshare?

Re:Right. (1)

DrEldarion (114072) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086661)

Maybe, but if you're including the chips being put into consoles, you have to include the chips being built into low-end motherboards. ATI doesn't exactly have a large share in integrated video.

Re:Right. (1)

MightyPez (734706) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086754)

Maybe, but if you're including the chips being put into consoles, you have to include the chips being built into low-end motherboards. ATI doesn't exactly have a large share in integrated video.

Except for the fact that ATi already has a substantial lead in integrated mobile solutions over their closest competitor, Nvidia. Not to mention ATi has had a liscencing agreement with intel for some time to produce motherboards with integrated graphics solutions (see: RS300 with 9100IGP).

Re:Right. (1)

Martin Blank (154261) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086694)

ATI also holds a comfortable position supplying Rage128 chips to motherboard manufacturers for servers, who have no desire at all to move to more expensive, higher-performance CPUs for boxes that are usually used from the console for no more than a few minutes a week.

Re:Right. (1)

DigiShaman (671371) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086438)

Well DUH! If I was the soon-to-be CEO, I too would be spewing forth this BS as well. By setting the stage with optimism, you increase your chances of gaining investment...and justifing your job. As CEO, it's about generating a self fulfilling prophecy in the eyes of your share holders.

Re:Right. (1)

AndroidCat (229562) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086857)

"Well, I think we'll do a little better in the short-term because of deals we've already signed. After that, it's a little hazy and depends on memory prices and stuff like that. At least it's better than all that insider stock-trading we had, right?"

Yeah, that should increase investor confidence and get him that raise next year... :^)

Re:Right. (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086450)

I would have to agree especially since you have many motherboard / chipset manufacturers that integrate their own video chipsets (VIA, Intel, nVidia) to alleviate user's from buying that additional video card that they probably don't need. There are more people using computers for standard business purposes than there are for gaming / graphics design. Most users don't need a high-end gaming / graphics card to browse the web and use standard business applications. ATI may be able to capture 50% or more of the gaming / graphic design market, but certainly not the whole desktop market.

Re:Right. (2, Informative)

mobby_6kl (668092) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086461)

Yeah I was also surprised. Last time I checked, Intel had the largest market share at about 33%, then nVidia had 27% and ATI 24%. (VIA and SIS had both about 7-8%). I seriously can't see a way how they could get 50% there.

Re:Right. (1)

danila (69889) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086503)

He probably meant 50% of dedicated video cards, not including integrated video on Intel motherboards.

Re:Right. (1)

Have Blue (616) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086532)

Why not? Nvidia had a virtual monopoly between the time 3dfx folded and the time the Radeon came out; back when the TNT2 and Geforce 1 were the undisputed performance champions by a large margin. More recently, Nvidia pissed off a lot of people with the Geforce 4 MX and the underwhelming FX series. The X800 and the 6800 are virtually neck and neck as far as performance goes, but the X800 seems to have much better ancillary features (power and cooling reqs, image quality). That could easily give 20% of the market to ATI, which would put them over the top as predicted.

Re:Right. (1)

TheSunborn (68004) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086550)

Well it is not imposible. They do have something like 40% now, so they just need to increase 10% point. Diffucult but not imposible. He is talking about graphics card sale, not integrated graphics where he admit they are currently weak.

But I still think that they should have asked about their (lack of)driver quality.

Martin

Read the interview instead of the headline. (2, Informative)

guidryp (702488) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086555)

Here is the actual quote: "We would like to reach 50 percent of the market in the short term." Since there are only really two main players for graphics cards, and they have been gaing share on NV, the goal of 50% doesn't seem unrealistic. Especially when you consider that so far ATI seems to be leading again on the high end.

Re:Right. (2, Informative)

DarkMageDTM (318634) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086670)

Sorry, but when 95% of the market is two companies, it's pretty easy for 1 to get 50% or more...no one else has the money to compete. Matrox tried...and failed.

It costs so much time and money to design modern GPUs that we aren't going to have a new major player for a long time. More is sunk into their R&D than Intel and AMD at this point.

Re:Right. (1)

curtoid (415759) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086817)

AND, to further driver the point home....

In pretty much every mature market there is:

Number 1, who generally dominates the market;
Number 2, who is no slouch, but still number 2;
and, finally
Everybody else, who are nowhere near 1 or 2.

Ask any major business consultant. The goal of your business is to be #1. Otherwise you're not serious.

Re:Right. (1)

akuma(x86) (224898) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087245)

One video card company cannot gain more than 50% of today's market. It's just not possible.

Why not? Technology companies routinely evolve into dominant market share players. Intel has an 83% share of all CPUs. Microsoft has a 99% share of operating systems.

There are only 2 players in the video card market now - others have died trying to fight the big 2. If one can sustain a competitive advantage over the other for a few years, one will end up being dominant (ie - have more money than the other guy to invest in newer products to remain competitive).

Re:Right. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087351)

One video card company cannot gain more than 50% of today's market. It's just not possible.

What has Nvidia been doing for the past 5-10 years?

Market Share? (2, Insightful)

lrt512 (695689) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086420)

To capture market share, they need to figure out how to write drivers that don't crash 50% of the systems they're installed on. I've flirted with ATI on and off since 1989, and have *never* had a stable system with one of their cards installed.

Re:Market Share? (1)

DaveKAO (320532) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086534)

Yeah because writing software that doesn't crash has helped Microsoft capture the desktop market. Oh Wait...

Re:Market Share? (1)

kyoko21 (198413) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086593)

Drivers are getting better for ATI, but if they can get their Drivers to the level of quality that Nvidia provides, then we got ourselves a real wild west showdown.

GNAA should get job as Haliburton contractors (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086536)

You GNAA doodz could make a lot of cash working for Haliburton.

You doodz already have a lot of experience in gay orgies and sodomizing doodz n stuff so like you should get a job over in Iraq.

seems credible. (1)

Leonig Mig (695104) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086591)

"Orton believes that ATI can grab more than 50 percent market share in the desktop market in the short term."

I beleive they can.

The question they should have asked (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9086594)

Why the heck does the mpact2 driver always crash when changing resolution?

ATi (1, Offtopic)

Lust (14189) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086605)

It's a small point, but it's a small "i" (ATi).

Re:ATi (1)

mobby_6kl (668092) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086811)

Why? Seriously, I hope it's not because of their logo. If we had to type everything just like it's in the logo, how would we for example type Intel? Anyway, check out their about page here [ati.com] . There is at least a dozen of "ATI" and not a single "ATi".

Re:ATi (1)

JeffTL (667728) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087161)

I think ATi has a historical precedent: "Array Technologies, inc." Though usually acronyms are rendered in capitals, and the pronunciation is "A-T-I" and not "A-Ti" or "A-Titanium." Really a mixed bag.

All about the FAN (0)

superpulpsicle (533373) | more than 10 years ago | (#9086698)

If ATI can figure out how to get a superfan/cooling device installed on every ATI graphics card, I'd buy from them again.

Until then, my Radeon 9800 pro experience has been a complete disaster. Compared to other Geforce cards I have owned... no heating problem... no driver problem.

Re:All about the FAN (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 10 years ago | (#9087304)

hope you are not the AR I know, you probably get a faulty card.

nice interview, here's another one... (1)

mczak (575986) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087206)

another very recent interview with Dave Orton, quite interesting IMHO: http://www.beyond3d.com/interviews/daveorton/ [beyond3d.com]

Some of (1)

iminplaya (723125) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087366)

their video capture cards use DRM. It doesn't matter how good they are. We shouldn't support it in any way until that stuff comes out and we get a fully capable card. Say it with me. Don't tolerate DRM.

Why my next Card will likely be a Retail ATI card. (3, Interesting)

guidryp (702488) | more than 10 years ago | (#9087390)

I generally shift like the wind when buying tech. The best bang for the buck in current reviews is what I look for. About 3 years ago I bought a Retail ATI 8500. Decent card but, in hindsight, my system crashed quite a bit more than it should have. People were point finger at my Antec 350W PS. Finally I started getting consistent crashes in a game I wanted to play (NWN). This lead me to an exhaustive diagnostic process that eventually proved my card was at fault. AT this point my Card was 2.5 years old. I sent it back to ATI. They replaced it with a 9700 Pro free of charge. Now that is what I call customer service. The kind of move that wins customer loyalty. That ATI warranty is worth a premium to me. I fully realize you are not often likely to get that kind of free upgrade, but a nice long warranty with fast replacement is much appreciated. I realize a lot of people here are complaining about past grief with ATI product, but they have made dramatic strides in the last 2 years. Now releasing drivers monthly. Performance, Image quality and reliability are all top notch. They lag in Open GL a bit, and moreso on Linux though. So I can see lots of folks here passing them by. One last point is I like buying my card from the company that also made the chip.
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