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Introducing Asteroid 2004 MN4

michael posted more than 9 years ago | from the hopefully-you'll-hear-nothing-more-about-it dept.

Space 633

Numerous readers wrote in with bits about a potential asteroid collision: "The recently discovered asteroid 2004 MN4 is currently listed as having a 1/233 chance of hitting the Earth. It is 420 m across and if it strikes the Earth it will release an energy of 1,900 Megatons of TNT (the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, Tsar Bomba had a yield of only 50 Megatons). It is also the only asteroid that currently has a Torino scale value of 2." So, in summary, there's a 1-in-233 chance of the worst disaster in recorded history happening on April 13, 2029, and a 232-in-233 chance of nothing happening. Have a nice day! Update: 12/24 22:14 GMT by M : The rock is now rated a 4 on the Torino scale, or a 1-in-62 chance of impact.

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Friday the 13th (5, Funny)

Castaa (458419) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177037)

Not to alarm people further, but April 13, 2029 is also a Friday the 13th!

Re:Friday the 13th (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177077)

Who cares? We all know that really bad things only happen on Tuesdays.

For some reason, this post made me think... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177099)

Rainman?

Re:Friday the 13th (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177102)

What's the deal with friday being unlucky? Or 13 for that matter? I thought 13 was a lucky number, if anything.

Re:Friday the 13th (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177119)

The origins of the Friday the 13th superstition has been linked to the fact there were 13 people at the last supper of Jesus, who was traditionally crucified on Good Friday, but it probably originated only in medieval times.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friday_the_13th [wikipedia.org]

Re:Friday the 13th (0, Offtopic)

Frohboy (78614) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177153)

The explanation I heard was that it's superstition built around the Christian story of Jesus' death, and the last supper.

Jesus died on "Good Friday", and at the last supper, he was sitting with his twelve disciples. 13 people at the table, on a Friday, and the leader gets killed.

Of course, since the death of Jesus is supposedly considered the high-point in Christianity (with Easter being the most important Christian holiday), this explanation seems slightly counterintuitive to me. Of course, superstition never really needs to make sense, I guess.

Re:Friday the 13th (1)

ChickenAintDone (713461) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177174)

Actually the number 13 is considered a sign of bad luck or ill omen.

Re:Friday the 13th (1)

msim (220489) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177215)

heck in other cultures its actually considered a good number. If my ex girlfriend is to be trusted *smirk* apparently in chinese it's actually a very good number :-)

Re:Friday the 13th (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177274)

The Chinese eat dogs stuffed with rice and think it's good! So let's temper the opinion of how trustworthy they are about what's good or bad with that knowledge, mmkay?

Re:Friday the 13th (5, Funny)

dvdave (175509) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177116)

Plus, if you add 2+0+2+9 = 13! We're doomed!

Re:Friday the 13th (4, Funny)

bckrispi (725257) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177172)

April 14, 2029.

Somewhere, on the surface of Mars

Where's the "Kaboom"? There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering "Kaboom"!

Maybe we should start terraforming something... (0, Redundant)

kngthdn (820601) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177038)

April 13th, 2029 is a Friday!

Ouch.

In 2029, it won't be our problem. (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177040)

The Machines will have to worry about it.

Lets start (5, Funny)

Nemesis099 (60955) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177047)

Well its close enough time to start looting!

greatest present ever (0, Offtopic)

n0iz77 (793147) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177054)

this would be the best birthday present ever!!!!

Maybe (2, Funny)

b00tleg (603482) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177060)

Hopefully Bruce Willis will still be around...

Re:Maybe (2, Funny)

Samus (1382) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177103)

He'll probably be president, so won't be available to save us.

Re:Maybe (1)

kngthdn (820601) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177129)

Actually, blowing up an astroid would make the problem much worse. Instead of one rock, there would be a bunch of them. We'd have better luck either moving the astroid or abandoning Earth.

Who knows? I'm more worried about the astroids we don't know about.

Re:Maybe (4, Funny)

Hatta (162192) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177163)

We'd have better luck either moving the astroid or abandoning Earth.

If we route emergency power through the deflector dish, we should be able to create a warp bubble that would temporaril lower the gravitaional constant around the asteroid. That way we could use the ships tractor beam to slightly alter the asteroids trajectory. It won't be much, but I think it will be enough.

Re:Maybe (1)

DeputySpade (458056) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177182)

Abandon earth? Don't we have sufficeint computing power to figure out where on earth it will land? Can't we just abandon that one spot?

Re:Maybe (1)

GuyWithLag (621929) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177241)

Remember GIGO: no data, no predictions. I'd say that the quiality of the current data isn't good enough to predict where it will be in 25 years.

Re:Maybe (1)

operagost (62405) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177276)

Anything that big will cause a worldwide climate change. Probably not an extended one, but it would suck for at least one or two years.

Re:Maybe (2, Insightful)

damiam (409504) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177250)

Instead of one rock, there would be a bunch of them

Many rocks have many times the surface area of a single rock, so much more of them would be burned up in the atmosphere.

Re:Maybe (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177150)

A lot of use he would be, after Sept 11th he wouldn't even get on a plane.

Re:Maybe (1)

MicroBerto (91055) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177210)

Hey, even if he's not with us, we'll probably still have Ben Affleck!

Not an Asteroid (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177062)

Are you sure this isn't Rama?

I am not worried (0)

ocularDeathRay (760450) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177063)

I like those odds. just enough of a chance to make life exciting, but still prolly won't happen.

press the hash key to return to the menu (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177064)

yes but does the asteroid run Linux

Meh. (1, Troll)

theparanoidcynic (705438) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177065)

Civilization as we know it sucks anyway.

* Bets on 233-doom. *

GO ASTEROID!

Nothing to worry about? (4, Interesting)

Richie1984 (841487) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177068)

I don't really think there's too much point in getting concerned just yet. There are many asteroids that we can't track until they've already passed us, so worrying about a 1 in roughly 300 chance of an asteroid hitting us in 30 years time isn't really a major problem yet. Personally, I'd like to see some sort of government funding for machinery to detect a greater number of asteroids which are potentially on a course for us. Otherwise, our fate is just in the hands of luck.

Re:Nothing to worry about? (1, Insightful)

GoofyBoy (44399) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177090)

>Otherwise, our fate is just in the hands of luck.

Just like the previous thousands of years?

Re:Nothing to worry about? (2, Interesting)

Richie1984 (841487) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177118)

Just like the previous thousands of years?

Yes, but we're entering an age where we have, or will probably soon have, the technology to not only detect these threats, but also to destroy them. Just because it hasn't happened before in the course of recorded human history, doesn't mean we can be complacent.

Re:Nothing to worry about? (1)

Stop Error (823742) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177091)

Even if we could track an incoming object with 20 years lead time I don't know (depending on size of the object) that we could do much about it.

Re:Nothing to worry about? (1)

aussie_a (778472) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177170)

Haven't you seen the movies? In Deep Impact they could ... oh. We're doomed.

Re:Nothing to worry about? (2, Interesting)

AbbyNormal (216235) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177187)

Also, isn't this estimation based on the "perfect" scenario? Ie. No outside forces being exerted on the rock before it hits us? Even though 30 years is a drop in the universe's bucket in terms of time, there is a lot that could possibly alter the course.

Oh, and Frankly, I welcome our new Rock Based over lords.

Re:Nothing to worry about? (3, Insightful)

temojen (678985) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177243)

If we start now, we have 24 years to figgure out how to deflect it's orbit. If it's not on a collision course after all, then we still have learned how to deflect a large asteroid.

There is govt fundint (Re:Nothing to worry about?) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177259)

There is government funding. See Pan-STARRS [hawaii.edu] and LSST [lsst.org] . These surveys will find millions of objects, and thousands of PHOs.

Time to panick (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177073)

Hmmmm, I wonder how many doomsday cults will be created around this.

Like a car on a turn... (4, Funny)

Cytlid (95255) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177075)

...maybe if we all lean to the left...

Re:Like a car on a turn... (1)

Tkaos (112433) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177100)

But don't lean too far to the left or we might start drifting into the sun.

Re:Like a car on a turn... (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177131)

Dude, we're like living on a sphere...

Re:Like a car on a turn... (2, Funny)

Wandering Wombat (531833) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177176)

You Democrat-hippy, don't tell me how to vote.

Re:Like a car on a turn... (1)

Trumpetgod2k1 (740425) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177178)

If you live in Europe, you already do!

**ducks**

Re:Like a car on a turn... (5, Funny)

Daniel Dvorkin (106857) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177181)

Well, at this point we're leaning too far to the right. Maybe if we all just straighten up?

Re:Like a car on a turn... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177244)

What if the people of india and china are given 5 minutes to jump up and down on a given period of time...

I bet that would have some effect on earth's orbit.

plenty of time (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177078)

Plenty of time to do something about it. However, if I know politics, it'll take until 2028 before the politicos fund the mission and NASA will have about 6 months to put together a mission....

Re:plenty of time (1)

spectre_240sx (720999) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177164)

Yup, and how the hell are we going to get the oil drillers trained by that time? We're doomed...

I'll be ready (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177083)

I for one welcome our new asteroid overlo...

Oh.

Never mind.

Thought this was about another Atari gift set (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177086)

Reminds me, I've got some shopping to finish...

Thanks for the breakdown ... (5, Interesting)

Ralconte (599174) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177088)

Thanks for all the numbers, but using this page is more fun ... (no HTML, it's short enough to cut and paste)
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

Re:Thanks for the breakdown ... (1)

iocat (572367) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177220)

And for the truly lazy [arizona.edu] ...

So... (0, Redundant)

Paiway (842782) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177094)

... when do we start looting stores and rioting?

D&D odds perspective (4, Funny)

Castaa (458419) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177097)

To put these odds in terms us slashdotters will understand, the odds that this asteroid will hit earth are better than the odds of rolling a '20' with a twenty-sided die 2 times in a row.

No problem then (1)

phorm (591458) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177141)

We'll just cast force-bolt on that meteorite when it gets too near and knock its tragectory away from earth...

Re:D&D odds perspective (4, Funny)

GoofyBoy (44399) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177152)

So its the same odds as those two wood sword wielding kobolds both hitting my level 10 fighter?

Re:D&D odds perspective (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177188)

I really wouldn't worry too much. I never get crit hits anyway.

Re:D&D odds perspective (1)

ChickenAintDone (713461) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177203)

We should probably just go ahead and make a D233 to decide whether or not to react.

not right Re:D&D odds perspective (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177239)

No, it's a 1/200 odds which means the odds of rolling a 20 on a 20 sided die and a 10 on a 10 sided die.

So it's more like rolling hit die and then damage.

Acutally as defenders we probably get a savings throw also to account for the asterior being deflected by the atmosphere or being destroyed by orbital debris.

And the worst part? (2, Funny)

mogglestein (780583) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177104)

We have to wait 24 years ... damn I'll be 54 !!

Mojitos (1)

IcarusMoth (631872) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177107)

Lets throw a party!! I'll bring Mojitos! but we'll still need chex mix!
---
Oh how i wish I could meta-moderate my days away.

Re:Mojitos (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177231)

Screw Mojitos, if the world is going to end bring the heroine and cocaine!

Not a Chance! (2, Interesting)

6800 (643075) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177109)

Nothing happens by chance. Chance is simply a statiscal tool to rate probability of things observable. If you disagree, please explain to me by what power comes chances causation?

Re:Not a Chance! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177158)

You've got to be kidding! I suppose This is GOD's way of punishing us sinners, puuleeese!!!

According to google define (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177183)

probability [google.com] : a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur; "what is the probability of rain?"; "we have a good chance of winning"

The asteroid has a chance of hitting the earth. asshole.

Re:Not a Chance! (1)

JanneM (7445) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177204)

Nothing happens by chance. Chance is simply a statiscal tool to rate probability of things observable. If you disagree, please explain to me by what power comes chances causation?

Um, none? Having quantum effects is quite enough.

That won't preclude causation in the normal sense for macroscopic objects, of course.

John Young strikes again. (3, Interesting)

jabex (320163) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177111)

Well, John Young (from a previous story about the risks of being a single planet species) is going to have a field day with this.
http://space.balettie.com/Young.html [balettie.com]

Guess it's time to update those "how likely we are to die" stats.

Although maybe not, considering this isn't of the 1km and above weight class.

10 Krakatoas (2, Interesting)

mshaslam (688800) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177117)

1900 megatons is about 10 times the force of the Krakatoa volcanic eruption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa [wikipedia.org]

Ouch.

Any moment now. . . (2, Funny)

Ohreally_factor (593551) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177120)

Any moment now, Michael will be receiving a request/subpoena from Apple legal, asking him to divulge the identities of the "numerous readers" that leaked this highly confidential information about "Asteroid".

Netcraft confirms: by 2029, EVERYTHING is dying (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177133)

It was bound to happen some day...

What is the Point? (0)

Slapdash X. Hashbang (315401) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177142)

What is the point of posts (and news items, etc.) like this? I suppose someone will argue, "So that we can prevent such a cataclysm!" To me, it seems very unlikely that we could prevent all -- or even any -- of them. It also seems like a wonderful argument for throwing more billions and billions of dollars down the MIC toilet.

Re:What is the Point? (1)

GoofyBoy (44399) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177168)

>What is the point of posts (and news items, etc.) like this?

Slow news day.

23 years till it's actually a story (4, Funny)

voidptr (609) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177216)

Just think of how many times slashdot can repeat this story in the next two decades!

Re:What is the Point? (5, Interesting)

bigberk (547360) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177247)

What is the point of posts (and news items, etc.) like this?
While the population obsesses about rather small threats (terrorism, nuclear bombs, SARS, west nile virus) people tend to ignore major threats like, oh I don't know, human near-extinction in several decades. Sit and think about the odds given and you should find it extremely unnerving, unless you have no sense of probabilities. On the order of 1/100 or 1/1000 are not reassuring odds. And the scale of the event is enormous.

It's a problem of motivating people to non-immediate problems. Like environmental issues, these are not things that engage us now. OTOH terrorism and SARS puts people in an acute panic. With something like asteroids, environmental damage people have to start working on problems now even though there appears to be no good reason to do so.

So getting back to your question, why post about this and why make people aware of a looming future threat? Because hopefully, physicists, mathematicians, and engineers out there realize that this is quite important and might take part in coming up with solutions that could (yes) save earth. And maybe people will make the connection that humans striving for space travel, exploration, and colonization of space is also an activity that can save our ass -- rather than waste precious precious money.

And everyone else can realize, damn, life may well be shorter than we all expect, and be grateful that they and everyone else they know is still alive.

Select surivivors NOW (5, Funny)

spywarearcata.com (841806) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177143)

Clearly we need to start now to develop deep habitable mines to ensure the survival of our way of life. We must carefully select a few hundred thousand of those who should be protected at all costs.

A special committee would have to be appointed to study and recommend the criteria to be employed, but off-hand, I should say that in addition to the factors of youth, health, sexual fertility, intelligence, and a cross-section of necessary skills, it would be absolutely vital that our top government and military men be included, to impart the required principles of leadership and tradition.

Naturally, they would breed prodigiously. There would be much time and little to do. With the proper breeding techniques, and starting with a ratio of, say, ten women to each man, I should estimate the progeny of the original group of 200,000 would emerge a hundred years later as well over a hundred million. Naturally the group would have to continually engage in enlarging the original living space.

Re:Select surivivors NOW (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177160)

How wonderful we must be!

Re:Select surivivors NOW (2, Interesting)

spywarearcata.com (841806) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177192)

Muffley: But look here doctor, wouldn't this nucleus of survivors be so grief stricken and anguished that they'd, well, envy the dead and not want to go on living?

Strangelove: No sir... [right arm rolls his wheelchair backwards.] Excuse me. [struggles with wayward right arm, ultimately subduing it with a beating from his left.] Also when... when they go down into the mine everyone would still be alive. There would be no shocking memories, and the prevailing emotion will be ne of nostalgia for those left behind, combined with a spirit of bold curiosity for the adventure ahead! Ahhhh! [Right hand reflexes into Nazi salute. He pulls it back into his lap and beats it again. Gloved hand attempts to strangle him.]

Re:Select surivivors NOW (1)

CA_Jim (786327) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177252)

Wouldn't this leave the apes in charge on the surface to enslave the rest of humanity who couldn't qualify for cave dwelling?

Re:Select surivivors NOW (4, Funny)

node 3 (115640) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177270)

Well now what happened is, one of the asteroids, it had a sort of, well it went a little funny in the head. You know. Just a little... funny. And uh, it went and did a silly thing. Well, I'll tell you what it did, it took a trajectory... to hit the planet. Well let me finish, Dimitri...

uhm... (2, Interesting)

Dorothy 86 (677356) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177144)

anyone else notice how many times they made sure to say it was not of public concern?

/me puts on tinfoil hat

a 1/233 chance of it hitting earth sounds like fairly good odds to me, considering odds of other asteroids... I want to be concerend for another 24 (close enough) years...

saved in the nick of time (5, Funny)

Camel Pilot (78781) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177145)

what a relief at least we wont have to go thru the year of "the end of unix time".

But the insurance!!! (1)

tygerstripes (832644) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177155)

Damn. There goes my 25 years of no-claims-bonus.

Figures. (1)

Frennzy (730093) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177159)

That's the day I was going to retire.
Stupid, stupid asteroid.

Wow...Now all we have to do is. (1)

MrRuslan (767128) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177161)

Call Bruce Willis and tell him to start the preparations.
Seriously tough 1/233 chances should not be too much of a concern right now. As we monitor this object we as it gets closer we should get a better idea of the chances and in 30 years we will have new technology to hopefully deflect this thing...Happy Holidays Slashdot by the way :)

Darwin Awards, 2029 (3, Interesting)

node 3 (115640) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177165)

Yes! I now have a 1/233 chance of predicting the Darwin Awards for 2029.

You see, the smart will evacuate the target impact area, and the "Award Winners" will flock to the area for the event.

Damn, I just hope *I* can resist going... after all, it *will* be an impressive show. We're talking 1.9 gigatons!

Someone needs to assay this asteroid (1)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177171)

The important thing about this asteroid is value as construction material. It should be possible to mine it for everything from raw reaction mass to oxygen to space habitat construction materials [aol.com] .

It is a lot better than lunar materials because of the low gravity hold on its own mass. It is also a lot better than asteroidal belt material because of the short round-trip times possible, which goes straight to the bottom line in terms of rate of return.

Re:Someone needs to assay this asteroid (1)

TheGavster (774657) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177238)

For once, total consumption of a non-renewable resource will be a *good* thing ...

ruh oh.. we're all gonna die (1)

esobofh (138133) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177173)

You know they ALWAYS make it sound less probably to avoid widespread panic.... damnit, I wonder if my iPod will survive the apocolypse?

Obligatory post (0)

n9mdh (800649) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177193)

In Korea, only the old people get hit by asteroids.

More than 1 disaster position? (2, Funny)

LordEd (840443) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177196)

If you look at the animation, it shows the one possible earth hit position, but to me, it looks like 2 or 3 of those very near earth positions have the potential to hit the moon (then factor a gravitational swing around the earth...)

Pool anybody? Off the moon, bank off North America, left ocean!

Re:More than 1 disaster position? (1)

tsaler (569835) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177218)

Are you sure the Moon would really be in that position when the asteroid passed? The caption for the animated GIF says "The Moon's orbit is also shown, for scale." You would think NASA would have the Moon in the right place, but who knows?

Re:More than 1 disaster position? (1)

branto (811992) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177266)

Just like the old(?!) McDonalds Commercials with Michael Jordan and Larry Bird in a space suit... Maybe we could get them to join Bruce Willis' Dream Team...

Best quote from the article (4, Funny)

cmburns69 (169686) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177205)

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy" ...From the CNN version [cnn.com]

Along with the obligatory Simpsons quote..

Kent Brockman: Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Professor: Yes I would, Kent.

Late word from Arther Dent... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177217)

"So this is it, we're going to die?"!

I for one (1)

darkmayo (251580) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177224)

welcome our 1900 megaton overlords.....

The time is now! (1)

frostfreek (647009) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177235)

Just think, if we could put a rocket on it now, we could change the trajectory of the asteroid by a tiny tiny fraction, but multiplied over 24 years, would put the asteroid far away from earth.

Of course, we'd probably screw it up, and it would impact earth in 22 years as a result.

In that case I'm moving to... (1)

JaF893 (745419) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177236)

China, where asteroids are always positive

Damn, just before I get Social Security! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11177246)

The government will do anything to weasel out of its promise.

Odds (1)

mszeto (133525) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177249)

Never tell me the odds!

So... April 13th... (1)

TheBurrito (767042) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177251)

Any chance it could hit the IRS? /runs off to spend willy-nilly

Ever Wonder... (3, Interesting)

arakon (97351) | more than 9 years ago | (#11177260)

about where and how they come up with these 'odds'?

Would this be one of those instances of '95% of all statistics are made up'?

I mean, it seeams if he could get a somewhat reasonable graps at the trajectory and distance of the asteroid thy could get a fair guess about probability of impact and location of impact, but how do they arbitrarily convert a guess into a number ratio?

I guess I'd just like to see the math on how they come up with these numbers.

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