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Bob Cringely's Predictions For 2005

timothy posted more than 9 years ago | from the this-year-will-be-shorter-than-last-year dept.

Technology 440

An anonymous reader writes "Bob Cringley publishes his predictions for developments in the world of IT every year. His latest column contains his predictions for 2005 and a brief look back at his predictions for 2004."

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440 comments

Fristage Postage HOWTO (1)

repruhsent (672799) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307361)

How to get a Fristage Postage on Slushgut: 1. Wait for stupid headline about the new slushgut story; 2. Masturbate continually to taco snotting photos; 3. Click READ MORE; 4. Click REPLY; 5. Enjoy firstage postage!

BOBSLEIGH WITH YOUR OWN COCK JUICE (-1, Troll)

(TK19)Dessimat0r (736373) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307364)

_ _ _ _ _ _ __ _..._ ALL YOU FUCKING SLASHDOT USERS
_ _ _ _ _ _ .-' . . '-. THIS FUCKING PENISBIRD SHITS
_ _ _ _ _ _/. . ._ . ._\ DOWN YOUR NECK INTO YOUR STOMACH
_ _ _ _ _ /. . .(o) ./__) WHERE THE SHIT BURNS FOR THE REST OF
_ _ _ __ /. . .,_ . .| '| YOUR SHORT AND PATHETIC LIFE
_ _ _ _ |. . ./ .\ . /_/
_ _ _ _ /. . .`"`" . .} IT THEN GRIPS ONTO YOUR COCK WITH ALL ITS MIGHT
_ _ __ /. . . . . . . { AND INJECTS VARIOUS MUTAGENS INTO YOUR BLOODSTREAM THROUGH
_ _ _ /. . . . . . . .} ITS RAZOR-SHARP CLAWS WHERE IT REACTS WITH YOUR
_ __ /. . . . .\/\ /\ { VAST RESERVES OF FAT AND BLUBBER
_ _ |. . . . . .;``"``\
__ /. . . . . . / ; ; ;| NOBODY IS SAFE FROM THE PENISBIRD, AND IT
_ |. . . . . . / ; ; ; | FUCKING HATES ALL SLASHDOT USERS
_ \ . . . ._.-`|; ; ; ;|
_ /`-..--`` a a| ; ; ; | YOU ARE NEXT, YOU FUCKING FAT, FILTHY PIG
_|a a a a a a a|; ; ; ;|
_| a a a a a a | ; ; ; /_ _ _ _ ,--........,, FUCKING POST, YOU FUCKING
_|a a a a a a / ; ; ; ; _ _ _ .' . . . . . -='. BASTARD ASCII.. I CAN'T BELIEVE
_| a a a a a / ; ; ; / _ _ _ _\ . . . . . . . : THIS FUCKING STUPID LAMENESS
_|a a a a a/` ; ; ; \ _ _,==" .\ . . . . . . .' FILTER, WHAT AN ARSEFUCKING COCKLORD
_\ a a a .'. _ ,._'\.\~" o //` .\. . . . . .'
_|a a a.___~' \ \-~| | o ./,\.` .\. . . _.' WHAT KIND OF SHIT NAME
p|; a a/ _,.-~'| |o| |. . . . ,-''\..--' IS LAMENESS FILTER ANYWAY
p|__a/="" . . .| | | |. . _="`
ppp ` . . \\ . | | / /_="` WHAT THE FUCK? MORE LIKE TROLL FILTER
ppp. . . ./,\ / /_,)") FUCKING CMDRTACO, YOU FUCKING FAT BASTARD
pppp . . ._,.-)")
pppp__,=~"| ===============
ppppp|; .;| Penisbird/. 1.3
pppp | y .| ===============
pppp |;|\ |
ppp_ |/' \| LETS GET IT ON, MOTHERFUCKERS.

Trollkore
"I hate you, I hate your country, and I hate your face!"


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Cringely? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307375)

That fokker still owes me a mug for my tips about the release date of the original RS/6000 (Rios)!

Some of these predictions are -1 redundant (5, Insightful)

MrRTFM (740877) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307379)

- Microsoft sues
- SPAM increases
- RIAA sues users

Even my Aunt Nellie predicted these to happen!

I'd be interested in what major software is going to take off - spam filters, chat, music?

Re:Some of these predictions are -1 redundant (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307404)

Newsflash: nobody can predict the future. Dumbass :P

Re:Some of these predictions are -1 redundant (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307488)

Isaiah 45:1, my friend.

Check the time frame that Isaiah was written in, and look up when Cyrus was born.

I guess God can predict the future.

Re:Some of these predictions are -1 redundant (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307528)

IHBT.

Interesting moderation there.... (-1, Offtopic)

MrRTFM (740877) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307412)

I use the word 'redundant' in the title and it gets modded redundant, even though its the first non troll post.

Re:Some of these predictions are -1 redundant (1, Insightful)

roseblood (631824) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307448)

Left out
-MPAA sues users
-SCO sues
-SPIM and SPIT also increase (SPAM for IMs and InternetPhones)
-Stuff Gets Cheaper and Does More Than It Did Before (SGCDMTIDB)

Aunt Bo Peep Predicts... (1)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307569)

I'd be interested in what major software is going to take off - spam filters, chat, music?

To whatever device 'techn-uh-logy' spreads, virii and worms are sure to follow.

This one too: (5, Interesting)

mtrisk (770081) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307585)

- Linux on the Desktop

Been predicted over and over again, but "major inroads"? Linux will grow gradually, but I can't see how he missed a glaring hole: Linux wireless support. My prediction for 2005 would have been wireless drivers for Linux that work just as easily as the built in networking drivers we have now. THEN you can start talking about major inroads, especially on laptops (which I think Linux is more suitable for than the Desktop).

Just my 2 cents.

Hmmm. (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307385)

Did he predict that Slashdot would stop updating the front page for logged-out users? What the fuck is going on? Please fix. KTHXBYE

AC is correct, slashdot frontpage is stuck (1, Offtopic)

aceat64 (706106) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307395)

I just logged out to test it, the AC is correct. The newest article shown is one from a bit before noon today.

Now that I'm logged back in, it works fine.

Re:AC is correct, slashdot frontpage is stuck (1)

mkop (714476) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307424)

I just logged out, same thing stuck on some story before noon

Re:AC is correct, slashdot frontpage is stuck (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307446)

Then e-mail the f'ing webmaster, don't flood the site with off-topic comments.

Re:AC is correct, slashdot frontpage is stuck (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307502)

And what is the webmaster's address? It is not the default "webmaster@slashdot.org". Slashdot only links to a bug reporting forum on sourceforge.

Does this guy have a real job? (-1, Troll)

Stonent1 (594886) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307388)

I just don't ever see anything interesting come out of him.

Re:Does this guy have a real job? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307397)

easy solution, don't read his stuff.

Re:Does this guy have a real job? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307507)

I just don't ever see anything interesting come out of him.

Oh, I'm sure interesting things come oozing out of his hairy ass all the time.

Perfect for Idea Futures Exchange (4, Interesting)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307391)

I wonder why guys like Cringley never put their predictions up on Idea Futures Exchange [ideosphere.com] ? Maybe its because their predictions aren't that surprising?

Parent is SPAM (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307427)

Because fake little internet futures exchange sites are seriously lame.

grandparent its not SPAM (1)

themusicgod1 (241799) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307532)

Foresight exchange is not fake; if you predict the future, you win, elsewise, you lose. I'm losing right now, because i thought GBStock was the same as Bush04 for some reason. Have I been trolled?

Re:Perfect for Idea Futures Exchange (1)

DarkHelmet (120004) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307468)

Balderson,

By all means, do you have any predictions for 2005. I find your posts interesting. Got anything to contribute this time around? ;)

Re:Perfect for Idea Futures Exchange (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307570)

Get a room, sissies.

Re:Perfect for Idea Futures Exchange (0, Offtopic)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307663)

During 2005, I predict:
  1. An anonymous coward will call me a "Nazi".
  2. An anonymous coward will call me a "Nazi boy".
  3. An anonymous coward will call me a "Nazi insect boy".
  4. Timothy McVeigh will land in a UFO and take all the Born Again to heaven with him just like I guess I must have said somewhere on my web site but I just can seem to find the link right now.

That's all for now.

Oh, wait -- I'll probably shave.

Re:Perfect for Idea Futures Exchange (2, Interesting)

RLiegh (247921) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307550)

Maybe its because their predictions aren't that surprising?
Or maybe because there's no kind of real incentive to? If all he wanted was masturbatory 'propz' from a 'community' of strangers he will never meet, he'd open up a slashdot account and spell microsoft 'micro$oft'.

Cringley doesn't waste time on ideasphere not because he has nothing to say, but rather because he's an accomplished professional who is highly regarded in his field.

Who's Bob Cringely anyway? (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307394)

Someone care to explain why we should be so interested in this?

Duh... (5, Funny)

sugapablo (600023) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307402)

"Microsoft's entry into the anti-virus and anti-spyware businesses will be a disaster for users."

What does Microsoft do that ISN'T a disaster for its users?

Re:Duh... (1, Troll)

UniverseIsADoughnut (170909) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307554)

Bring the PC to nearly everyone's home.

Give them a platform that is virtually universal in the industry.

Make computing easy

Make computing cheap via making it everywhere and driving down the cost of hardware.

Managing to get on the internet truck late and yet still be the driving force that brought it to home users via making it so easy to get on and use.

etc.

MS may screw up at stuff, but they also have largely gotten the computing world to where it is today. Without them we might just be getting to where we were in around 97 or so, and doubtful things would have been as cheep since apple wouldn't have dropped prices any. And without 1 driving player there would have been many mid size players thus making the whole of computing more expensive do to greater support issues.

Re:Duh... (1, Insightful)

roseblood (631824) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307616)

Bring the PC to nearly everyone's home.

Credit: IMB PC/AT and it's clones

Give them a platform that is virtually universal in the industry.

Credit: uhm...yeah... I've got 5 diffrent platforms here on 5 diffrent processors (only 1 machine is a x86)

Make computing easy

Credit: Those boys over at Apple

Make computing cheap via making it everywhere and driving down the cost of hardware.

Credit: All the makers of PC clones

Managing to get on the internet truck late and yet still be the driving force that brought it to home users via making it so easy to get on and use.

Credit: They didn't get on late, but AOL did all this.

Re:Duh... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307648)

Heh, look at what the fearless MS fanboy did...Oh...My...May your Buffer Overflow and may the Script Kiddies turn your Windows BOXEN into a mindless ZOMBIE. You know, if you DISAGREE with something, don't CENSOR it, COUNTER IT - Lets hear you ANSWER the challenges in the parent post, not mod it down. I bet you'd just love to burn books wouldn't you?

Re:Duh... (5, Insightful)

roseblood (631824) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307656)

YOUR CLAIM: Bring the PC to nearly everyone's home.

Credit: IMB PC/AT and it's clones

YOUR CLAIM: Give them a platform that is virtually universal in the industry.

Credit: uhm...yeah... I've got 5 diffrent platforms here on 5 diffrent processors (only 1 machine is a x86)

YOUR CLAIM: Make computing easy

Credit: Those boys over at Apple

YOUR CLAIM: Make computing cheap via making it everywhere and driving down the cost of hardware.

Credit: All the makers of PC clones

YOUR CLAIM: Managing to get on the internet truck late and yet still be the driving force that brought it to home users via making it so easy to get on and use.

Credit: They didn't get on late, but AOL did all this.

I like the ergonomic keyboard (5, Funny)

tallbill (819601) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307587)

They have a nice keyboard design.
I use one on my Linux box. It works great.
I don't have carpel tunnel now.

I just want to give credit where credit is due.

Someone will probably post that they didn't design it.

It is still a good keyboard.

Re:I like the ergonomic keyboard (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307628)

I love my Intellimouse. I've been using it for years, and it's never given me any trouble.

Crossing Over (5, Insightful)

kajoob (62237) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307405)


"I wrote that spam would get worse"

"Microsoft would propose proprietary technologies"

"Apple will take a big risk in 2005...though I am at a loss right now for what that might be."


Well at least he goes out on a limb and his predictions aren't vague or anything. If John Edward stops hosting Crossing Over, I know where they can get a new host. ;)

Re:Crossing Over (4, Informative)

eric76 (679787) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307460)

Well at least he goes out on a limb and his predictions aren't vague or anything.

Like this?

I wrote that spam would get worse, that there would be useless laws passed to stop it (Can-Spam, anyone?)

If he was predicting the passage of the CAN-SPAM act in his first column of 2004, then it would have been pretty funny if he couldn't have been specific. It had alread passed.

It took effect on January 1, 2004.

Re:Crossing Over (5, Funny)

AndroidCat (229562) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307476)

It took effect on January 1, 2004.

Bah, if this were an Infocom game or Hack, we would have got a message like "You cast CAN-SPAM. You feel sad for a moment, but then it passes."

Crossing Over Must Die (4, Funny)

handy_vandal (606174) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307466)

If John Edward stops hosting Crossing Over, I know where they can get a new host.

Please God -- let there never be another John Edward.

Crossing Over must die, and never again be channeled to the living!

-kgj

Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mark (3, Interesting)

winkydink (650484) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307413)

If the beta release is any indication, it sure looks like MS has a homerun on their hands with the Giant Antispyware application. Everyone I have spoken with has had new, undiscovered apps discovered running on their machine after installing and running the beta.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (3, Insightful)

mboverload (657893) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307464)

All they did was buy the company, reskin the program, and turn around and offer it for free. They have not had a chance to screw it up...yet.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (3, Insightful)

Qzukk (229616) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307483)

But can microsoft keep up with the rate of mutation in the spyware/worm/virus category?

Microsoft certainly has a head start in heuristically detecting things (after all, they're the only people who know what all the random gibberish in the registry means, or whether mswin03.dll really belongs in 2003 server's windows directory), but I suspect that their heuristics are only going to get them so far, and that the people who wrote spyware that worked so hard to keep the other players from finding it are going to figure out how MS found them and "fix" it.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (4, Interesting)

Bill Currie (487) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307490)

and how many MS beta releases have not had feature removals and other de-improvements before final release?

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (1, Flamebait)

CypherXero (798440) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307522)

That's beacause Microsoft BOUGHT the program from another company. Which proves that Microsoft can't create, they can just buy...buy...buy... And charge lots of money, too.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307551)

It also detects lots of legit apps as spyware.... From our own testing.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (4, Interesting)

technos (73414) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307578)

The Giant spyware application nukes stuff the other vendors decided was benign. For example, there are a bunch of tool-bar and assistants that are on their own safe, but can and will install other applications if not instructed otherwise by the user. AdAware won't nuke those; It nukes the spyware they can install, however.

This is where the majority of the "Wow, I found spyware!" factor comes from.

It also makes a bigger deal out of wiping files after the spyware has been nuked. AdAware and SpyBot leave the odd DLL, the odd this, the odd that lying about from time to time. The spyware is gone (It neither runs nor is capable of running) but Giant will claim this as an infection and bitch at the user that they have SPYWARE, when in fact they have an unusable dll stub in their windows directory.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (2, Interesting)

wintermute1000 (731750) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307622)

I'd like to be the counterexample to your assertion; I ran the MS program and found nothing, then immediately afterward, I ran Adaware and Spybot, in that order, and found one file with Adaware and a whopping 19 with Spybot.

The thing that makes me sad is that I kind of like finding spyware on my system, just to make me feel like I'm a kind of savvy Internet user who does what she can to protect her computer, and the much-vaunted Microsoft adware utility didn't give me any satisfaction at all.

Re:Microsoft Antispyware prediction is off the mar (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307624)

Spyware seems to have an issue where not everyone sees the same thing as spyware. Which explains why each spyware scanner detects different amounts of spyware... Something that is important here (like spam-filtering) is false positives. A couple people I know mentioned they had a couple odd results from this (like I noticed it found WinPcap of all things as spyware).

What? (4, Interesting)

Darkman, Walkin Dude (707389) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307641)

Wait a second, just hold everything... Microsoft release buggy, flawed software in a hurry to get the first to market advantage, and then the unscrupulous use those flaws to hijack the computers of hundreds of thousands world wide... then Microsoft PURCHASES THIRD PARTY SOFTWARE to apply band aids to their seeping wounds?

Maybe I'm going mad here, but since they wrote the damned OS in the first place, wouldn't they know best where to apply system patches etc., and wouldn't it be better and faster to get the people that originally developed the OS to fix it up?

But why would they when they can actually charge people for their patches now? Sure its free for now, but not for long, as the EULA states. Not to mention their OS authentication services (which you can turn off, if you buy that line), which their patches ostensibly never mentioned.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I know when someone is trying to pass off horse manure as honey...

Well that was a waste of time (5, Funny)

Stevyn (691306) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307422)

Nothing earth shattering here. The same old Microsoft and RIAA will perish while desktop linux will make inroads. Then a few other vague things like apple will do something big and voip will become more popular.

I could have just easily said that in north east america, the year will start out cold, get warmer, get hot, get cold, and then finally get really cold. I just wish advertisers would pay me for that.

Re:Well that was a waste of time (2, Interesting)

IANAAC (692242) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307480)

Well, I really do think he's got the VoIP stuff right. I'm now seeing commercials for PC software (glophone) to do pc-to-pc and SIP. Never would have happened before this year.

I myself just decided to really give Skype a second look - and things are really looking up as far as PC/real phone combos go.

Re:Well that was a waste of time (1)

elmegil (12001) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307530)

You forgot Sun will perish too.

Re:Well that was a waste of time (1)

roseblood (631824) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307636)

YOU: You forgot Sun will perish too.

ME:
The Sun has used up about half of its nuclear fuel (hydrogen). In about 5 billion years from now, the sun will begin to perish. How's that for a prediction?

Do you want it correct or over-the-top? (1)

SamSeaborn (724276) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307615)

Nothing earth shattering here ... I could have just easily said that in north east america, the year will start out cold

Do you want accurate predictions or fantasy?

Here's my easy prediction: Aliens will land from Alpha-centari, buy Apple, release a new L-Mac that comes with Linux pre-installed, and it'll put Microsoft out of business. Tune in in twelve months to see how right I was.

Bob Cringley, on the other hand, will be right 75-80% of the time (and I hope he is on his loss-leader Mac product prediction).

Sam

Re:Do you want it correct or over-the-top? (2, Funny)

0racle (667029) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307652)

He's right 75-80% of the time because 75-80% of what he 'predicts' has already happened.

Somewhat OT, but it came to mind (0, Offtopic)

Razor Sex (561796) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307430)

with mention of the RIAA. "The music business is a cruel and shallow trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men lie like dogs." - Hunter S. Thompson

Apple G6 (1)

spud603 (832173) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307445)

from the article: I said Apple wouldn't introduce a G6 in 2004 (right) and wouldn't sell as many G5s as it would like, either (right again). really? this guy must be looking at a different Apple than I am. I follow Apple pretty closely, and there's nothing resembling a post-G5 chip. What is he talking about?

Re:Apple G6 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307517)

He used the word wouldn't. It means the opposite of would. He said there would be no G6. You also say there is no G6. You are saying the same thing.

Re:Apple G6 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307599)

I think that Spud means that there wasn't even a hint of a rumour about G6s in 2003 so to say in January '04 that there would be no G6 released in 2004 is more a statement of the bleedin' obvious rather than a prediction.

Re:Apple G6 (4, Informative)

Ralph Spoilsport (673134) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307529)

Spud asked, in regard to the G6:

what is he talking about?

He was probably remembering the old IBM PowerPC roadmap from 2001 [geek.com] which clearly discusses the G3, the G4, the G5, the G6, and makes fuzzies about the G7.

He was probably talking about THAT G6. The one that was due in 2003 (DOH!).

cheers,

RS

Other Apple predictions (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307561)

- Ipod colors will become the basis for a new color scheme, replacing RGB

- Apple will patent colors, making beelions on royalties

- Jobs distortion field will become reality, and vice-versa

- Apple will finally buy apple records and be done with it

- '05 will be the year of the G5 and '06 the year of the G6. As a consequence of the distortion field, this century will be known as the G century.

Prediction we won't see (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307450)

"And today is the day that I will .. AAARRGH!"

Does this guy know anything? (1)

eldalonde (772750) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307453)

He predicted a G6 chip for Apple in 2004 and that Wal-Mart would take away the music download market? Why do people read this guy's column anyway?

Re:Does this guy know anything? (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307465)

cuz he's on the teee-veee.

My prediction for 2005 (5, Funny)

mcc (14761) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307454)

Slashdot will continue posting Cringely articles two to three times a month whether or not he has anything worthwhile, interesting or surprising to say, just because it's Cringely.

Re:My prediction for 2005 (1)

MeanMF (631837) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307474)

Slashdot will continue posting Cringely articles two to three times a month whether or not he has anything worthwhile, interesting or surprising to say, just because it's Cringely.

It's also because he almost always throws in a couple of fanatical anti-Microsoft rants.

Affiliate programs (5, Interesting)

Eric Giguere (42863) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307455)

4) The Recording Industries Association of America will continue to sue customers while their business slowly dissolves. The big threat here isn't file swapping, but affiliate programs like Apple's iTunes Affiliate Program that I am sure will be shortly copied by all the online music stores. These affiliate programs turn bloggers into shills and blogs into record stores, with the result that record company's last source of power -- marketing clout -- is taken away. This will take time, but it is the beginning of the end for old-style record companies.

I didn't realize iTunes had an affiliate program, but it seems like a logical step. Amazon's been doing this for a long time with music CDs, of course, as have other vendors. While viral marketing is definitely a good way to promote things, I don't see it reducing the record companies' marketing clout. I've posted before about how they used viral marketing to promote Christina Aguilera [bebeyond.com] when she was new. This is just another marketing avenue for them. But really, you still need to reach people who don't read blogs. People still watch TV. Still listen to the radio. Still read magazines and newspapers.

Eric
Why is William Shatner's face on my All-Bran? [ericgiguere.com]

eh? (5, Insightful)

ikea5 (608732) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307478)

FTA:"I predicted that all kinds of software companies would abandon support for older products, thus forcing us to upgrade to new operating systems and new hardware. Bingo." This is a prediction? why?

Tablizer's Predictions (1)

Tablizer (95088) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307481)

I predict that Cringely will be way off at the end of '05.

There, now where is my $8,000 journalism compensation?

VOIP: (5, Interesting)

Pig Hogger (10379) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307484)

6) VoIP will continue to shatter the telephone industry with the arrival of WiFi phones, which might finally be the killer app for hotspots. Eventually, all the backbone suppliers will figure out that VoIP is their salvation and will either start their own VoIP companies or ally with big VoIP players.
Won't happen. Local telephone providers, being required by law to provide universal service, will convince authorities that they need the phone revenue VOIP is cutting-off from them.

Expect some big hobbling of VOIP, at least for John. Q. Public.

Re:VOIP: (1)

IANAAC (692242) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307552)

For local service, yes, I see your point. But the days of paying 7 cents a minute for long distance are history for many, many people already. They've either discovered PC/SIP gateways that charge 2-4 cents a minute or they use up their cell phone minutes (another subject altogether).

Re:VOIP: (1)

jonwil (467024) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307654)

Probobly the biggest fear is that the cable internet companies like Comcast will start offering packages that combine TV, Internet and phone (via VOIP) all in one which would mean people could disconnect their PSTN phone lines completly.

C'mon Bob, give some examples (4, Insightful)

jlleblanc (582587) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307489)

I predicted that all kinds of software companies would abandon support for older products, thus forcing us to upgrade to new operating systems and new hardware. Bingo.

We've all grown accustomed to Bob's vagueness in these predictions, but here he doesn't even list any examples to support the veracity of his already vague (and super-obvious) prediction. -Joe

making predictions is hard... (2, Interesting)

mikecheng (3359) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307509)

especially about the future.

Worthless punting by Cringely - obvious predictions about obvious things, useless predictions about useless things. Just like a "Best of year X", everybody needs to do a "Predictions for year X+1" - and Cringely's predictions are as good as anyone else's (i.e. worthless).

Pompous Arrogant Moron (1, Flamebait)

dotslashdot (694478) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307540)

This guy sounds like a pompous, arrogant, moron. I predict he will sound like a pompous self-aggrandizing moron in 2005.

Re:Pompous Arrogant Moron (1)

Tablizer (95088) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307626)

This guy sounds like a pompous, arrogant, moron. I predict he will sound like a pompous self-aggrandizing moron in 2005.

Well, I too am a pompous arrogant moron, and unlike Cringely, I can't get a fscking dime out of it.

Sex Symbol? (3, Funny)

SteelV (839704) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307553)

"The sex symbol, airplane enthusiast and adventurer continues to write about personal computers and has an active consulting business in Silicon Valley, selling his cybersoul to the highest bidder." On his about page. Don't know if I agree with that first part, heh.

My prediction is that the accuracy of his predic- (1)

melted (227442) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307571)

tions will be between 50 and 75%. :0)

Seriously, though, 73% is a pretty poor prediction accuracy. Think about it, if you predicted outcomes of events at random as binary answers, you'd get 50% "accuracy".

Re:My prediction is that the accuracy of his predi (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307640)

if there are N events, that makes for 2^N distinct possibilities. Only 1 will occur. Thus, the chance of guessing right, at random is 2^(-N) * 100%, well below 50%.

you forgot one prediction (1)

holden caufield (111364) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307572)

Slashdot will still not have a Cringely category, even though nearly every week his stories get greenlighted.

I hate GWB (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307588)

GWB loves to use a so-called "wayward" bomb to kill Iraqi children. It's just his way of expressing his true belief -- that money makes the man and anyone without it is not human.

Gotta love him. Although knowing that >60% of the American public are morons, it's no wonder why he is president. I say that as an American myself. I hate this fucking country and if I had enough money, I'd move in a heartbeat.

A $249 Mac? (5, Insightful)

Fortunato_NC (736786) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307593)

Although I doubt we'll see it, whether we see it or not, I'm going to make the bold prediction that in 2005, Slashdot users will continue to complain that Apple hardware is too expensive.

Linspire (1)

pair-a-noyd (594371) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307596)

Sorry, that one won't fly.
Linspire is grabage, worse than pure M$.
With it's glaring security failures and it running already flakey M$ apps, it's doomed to fail. I hope Linspire goes the way of the Dodo and soon. I know people who tried it and were so turned off by that they said they will never again even consider trying any other Linux distro. It's such a poor product that the company should be sued and the big shots do the perp walk..

I wrote... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307625)

I wrote that I would masturbate thinking about myself having sex with myself.

Bingo.

ideas (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307634)

ICANN taxes all internet domains

P2P makes giant leap forward

SPAM increases then decreases...

I predict (1)

chris_eineke (634570) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307653)

that on January 9, 2006, I will predict that on January 7, 2007 Cringley will predict the same stuff he predicted one year earlier.

p.s. Why is everyone so hooked on Cringley? Did I miss something? :>

05: Stupid fucks will continue to do stupid things (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#11307655)

I predict that in 2005, stupid fucks will continue to do stupid fucking things.

My prediction (2, Insightful)

stratjakt (596332) | more than 9 years ago | (#11307660)

In january 2006, noone will remember, much less give a rats ass about, what Cringley "predicted" a year prior.
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