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Bill Gates: Cellphone will Beat iPod

CmdrTaco posted more than 9 years ago | from the integration-is-the-future dept.

Music 1017

93,000 writes "CNN is running an article featuring Gates' prediction that the iPod is on the way out. From the article: 'As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run.' His prediction for a successor? Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course."

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40 Gigs of Ring Tones (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511410)

Well there already are phones that play MP3s, it's just that nobody wants one. I don't want to have to worry about missing a phone call because my cellphone ran out of batteries while I was listening to a Red Dwarf audio book. Until Microsoft starts making Tricorders count me out.

But I'm sure Apple would be fools not to follow Gates' prediction, after all Microsoft is the leader in innovation. /sarcasm

Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (3, Insightful)

/ASCII (86998) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511525)

Personally, I don't want a combined pda, phone, camera and mp3-player since all such devices seem to be bad at everything they do. Big, clunky things with poor batery life, a horrible UI, low reolution camera, limited storage, etc. These 'convergence' devices are a compromise, and all compromises are a combination of the worst of two (or more) worlds.

Oh, I don't want a pickle (-1, Offtopic)

Gizzmonic (412910) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511417)

I just want ride my FP-sickle!

Also, Bill Gates is t3h sux, mod me God!

Sure... (5, Insightful)

Reignking (832642) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511418)

That's a safe bet...if the IPod remains as it is. There's no chance that the IPod won't morph into something else in the future...

Re:Sure... (1, Offtopic)

QBasicer (781745) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511488)

I think there's a chance that the iPod will evolve into something like the PDA, but this is just speculation on my part.

Re:Sure... (3, Funny)

PaulQuinn (171592) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511497)

If history is a good guide, the future iPod will become a monitor.

Re:Sure... (4, Funny)

nacturation (646836) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511500)

Maybe someday it will have wireless *and* more space than a Nomad.

FUCK you all! (1)

Ass, Ltd. Ho! (714400) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511419)

Fuck you all. Please! Please! I insist!!!

Anyone else... (0)

Eggman27 (587963) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511425)

...getting tired of these lame-ass predictions from this guy?

And, oh yeah... first post!

Re:Anyone else... (1)

mwk88 (633079) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511462)

Here's my lame-ass prediction -- cell phones will beat iPod, but they'll be running Linux, not Windows!

Re:Anyone else... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511561)

Here's my lame-ass prediction -- cell phones will beat iPod, but they'll be running Linux, not Windows!

my prediction:
people will stop using gifs and start using pngs
ogg is the future, mp3 is obsolete
[end sarcasm]

technology isn't used for the good of the people, it's used for the good of the business, if that means MS and not linux, then so be it.

Re:Anyone else... (1)

Eggman27 (587963) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511475)

Gah... never mind...

Re:Anyone else... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511533)

You probably missed the first post because you typed.. And, oh yeah... first post!

Re:Anyone else... (4, Insightful)

dreamchaser (49529) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511553)

Remember that this is the same man who thought the Internet was a fad that would go nowhwere, and that MSN was Microsoft's online future.

Very few of his predictions have ever been accurate. I'm surprised that Apple's stock didn't go UP when this bit was published.

640k (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511563)

``640k Should Be Enough for Anybody.''

-- Bill Gates

Re:Anyone else... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511577)

And what about the "Windows is dieing and this is the summer of love^H^H^H^HLinux!" trolls? Personally, I'd rather hear from Bill, despite that fact that he's highly biased because he has a metric tonne more business experiance that most of /. put together.

And because I wrote this, supposedly defending MS, I'm now going to be modded down as a troll.

Re:Anyone else... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511614)

I was trying to remember how many kilobytes he said would be all a computer user will ever need. Bill Gates - a man who will say anything.

Cell Phones over iPod? (4, Interesting)

geomon (78680) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511428)

I guess that would also include all other forms of portable devices. Cigarette lighters replaced by cell phones, ink pens replaced by cell phones, watches replace by cell phones, etc.

All powered by Microsoft Windows Mobile 5.0.

Has anyone ever done any reseach on how often Bill Gates has been right in his predictions?

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511513)

Well, I am running 640k of RAM just fine, you insensitive clod!

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511552)

"640K ought to be enough memory for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (0, Troll)

Fizzlewhiff (256410) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511558)

And butt plugs.

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (1)

geomon (78680) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511594)

Just keep hitting redial, eh?

Will it also follow that... (1)

Chordonblue (585047) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511584)

...no matter how many times it crashes, no matter how insecure, no matter how slow, no matter how restrictive the license, no matter how clumsy the interface, it will...

In fact...

SELL?

Don't completely disregard the power of MS. Hell, somehow Windows has always gotten away with it!

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (4, Funny)

winkydink (650484) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511610)

Has anyone ever done any reseach on how often Bill Gates has been right in his predictions?

I'm sure that at one time, he predicted that Microsoft would dominate the desktop computing market. It seems he made a few bucks off that, but hey, let's wait and see if it really catches on or it's just a fad.

Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (1)

sideshow (99249) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511627)

Has anyone ever done any reseach on how often Bill Gates has been right in his predictions?

Looking at the billions of dollars he has I'd say enough.

Moving target (4, Interesting)

BWJones (18351) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511430)

What is it with you Bill Gates? Why do you always have to "beat" beat everybody? The history of Mr. Gates is filled with prognostications about how Microsoft with win this and win that and how competitors don't have any idea of what is happening. Rah, rah, rah! Certainly much of this is marketing, but I much prefer companies that just keep their heads down creating the next big thing and then announcing it to everyones surprise. Pre-announcing products by years only serves to generate expectations that more often than not are unmet. Longhorn is how far out of the initial expected delivery date?

Now, as far as his bets on the future of the iPod, like just about everything else Apple has created and Microsoft has copied, the iPod is not stagnant. It's development is ongoing and dynamic, so Microsoft is going to have not not only copy, but out innovate a moving target.

MS are desperately looking for a niche (5, Informative)

Colin Smith (2679) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511535)

They can see the end of Windows and Office steaming towards them from a mile off and they want to be able to step aside before it hits them hard.

Re:Moving target (1)

smitty_one_each (243267) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511587)

Why do you always have to "beat" beat everybody?
Why not? Some crush beer cans, Gates crushes markets.
Pre-announcing products by years only serves to generate expectations that more often than not are unmet.
In American football, this is called a 'play action fake'. It's all about managing the market...

Maybe (5, Interesting)

dopelogik (862715) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511431)

Yea, and that cell phone will be made by Apple [powerpage.org]

Re:Maybe (1)

dg13 (858863) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511588)

motoPod of iRola

Re:Maybe (1)

EvilTwinSkippy (112490) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511601)

But you forget, this is an industry prediction. And as such Apple is DYING! See, they are running BSD, and BSD has been dying for years. Further proof!

Come on (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511434)

We all know this is bullshit.

+5 Insightful, please.

Big surprise.... (1)

/ASCII (86998) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511436)

What else would Gates be saying? "I don't think we can dent Apples monopoly, but we are releasing these ugly mobile just in case we are wrong..."? Dont think so!

Re:Big surprise.... (1)

VidEdit (703021) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511494)

...And I'm sure Gates said that iPods wouldn't be successful in the first place.

Re:Big surprise.... (1)

/ASCII (86998) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511573)

Willian "640 KB outh to be enough for everyone" Gates is not the best Oracle in town.

Well... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511438)

If this doesn't rile up the Apple faithful, then nothing will.

doh (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511441)

Doh?

And ... (4, Funny)

kitzilla (266382) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511442)

... in a related move, Sony announced today its complete confidence in the Betamax format. Film at 11.

And Apple... (1)

Marthisdil (606679) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511448)

But I'm sure Apple would be fools not to follow Gates' prediction, after all Microsoft is the leader in innovation. /sarcasm

Still takes advantage of artists....Your point?

either (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511453)

cell phones gain better mp3 options, or the ipod gains a cell phone option.

why carry two crappy devices to complicate your life when you can only carry one?

Cellies - Yes. Windows - No! (1, Insightful)

meehawl (73285) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511456)

Gates is right - in the end mobile communication devices will swallow the portable music niche, just as they have swallowed the PDA niche and are currently engulfing the photo niche. The advent of cheap annual/monthly subs like Yahoo's just-launched service, coupled with cross-platform availability (your car, your phone, your home, your work PC) means it will be inevitable. But they won;t all be running Windows!

I agree (1)

JMUChrisF (188300) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511457)

I agree with Gates on this one. In time, all of these individual pieces of tech we have (cell phone, mp3 player, movie watcher etc) will succesfully morph into one unit. It will take time and there will always be a niche market for those that need the best quality/professional quality devices.

Re:I agree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511604)

You better be careful. Saying you agree with Bill Gates will make you a pariah around here. Lots of overweight, pimply nerds will assault your ass and force you to experience anal sex for the first time.

Just be careful.

It's coming. (5, Insightful)

natrius (642724) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511459)

Yeah, it sounds a bit ridiculous, but think about it. People don't like carrying around multiple devices with them, and out of all the portable devices out there, the only one that has emerged as a necessity is the cellphone. These days, most cellphones you can buy have most of the features of the PDAs of yore. Listening to music is a fairly small feature to add to a device.

If you look at Nokia's cell phones [nokiausa.com] , about half of them have cameras. A few years ago, a camera phone would've been pretty rare. I think that's where things are heading with hard drive cell phones, and once you have a hard drive, playing music off of it is pretty simple. Sure, the iPod is fairly entrenched as of right now, but when people's iPods break, they'll already have a device that can play music, making another iPod purchase much less lucrative. As more iPods break than get replaced, these Windows Mobile phones will be waiting to take the MP3 player market away.

Re:It's coming. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511551)

or when the batteries in their ipod die and they cannot be replaced, lol. or did they fix that little forced upgrade "feature" yet

Re:It's coming. (1)

Colin Smith (2679) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511603)

I think you'll find that most of the multimedia phones run a Symbian operating system, there's a few MS ones and a few Linux ones. There really isn't any reason that any single OS will dominate the multimedia cell phone market.

Re:It's coming. (1)

lawpoop (604919) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511634)

OK, so what about an apple phone then?

um.... (1)

Run4yourlives (716310) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511460)

so Billy doesn't think that Apple hasn't clued into this already?

there will be a cell enabled Ipod soon enough I'm sure.

Bill's 1/2 right (4, Insightful)

winkydink (650484) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511464)

I believe there is an excellent chance of the mp3 player and cell phone converging into a single device. There are about 1.7 billion cell phones in use today. That means all those people are already carrying around an electronic device. Give them somethign in the same form factor that also plays music and you've got a winner.

As for the part about them all running Windows, let's just say that remains to be seen.

Why, oh why (1)

HeetMyser (655524) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511467)

does Bill do this to himself? From a guy who's spent (most of) his career building off the innovations of others, this "prediction" comes across as particularly entertaining.

Gates is right (1)

muffdivr (830884) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511468)

Yes, the do believe that the convergence war will be won by Microsoft. I love my 6315 and my Axim - way better devices than the Treo or any Palm based product - IMHO.

I can't wait for the iCell.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511471)

The first version won't let you call anyone outside of the Apple iCell(TM) network, until the release another version a year or two later. Then, the v2.0 release of (iRingTunes) the desktop sync software will erase your hard drive, and rearrange all of your contacts sorted by area code without asking. Then the battery will die and only after massive online bitching will they offer a replacement....

I just can't wait.

ummm (1)

jaywarrietto (720662) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511472)

what about that iPod phone?

Ya know..... (1)

Darth_brooks (180756) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511473)

Ya know, this one time, Bill Gates said 640k should be enough memory for anyone. I bet I'm the only person who remembers that.

Re:Ya know..... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511595)

I'm sick and tired of people throwing that around. Do some research, and you'll learn that the quote is incorrectly attributed to him/invented.

He might be right... (5, Informative)

HuffMeister (608243) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511476)

If my windows mobile phone didn't continually crash. Every couple of days the Windows Mobile OS crashes and it won't recognize any button presses. This is particularly annoying as it usually happens when answering calls, and requires pulling the battery out to hard resetting the phone. I originally got the phone because everybody in my office was getting them, and so I didn't have much of a choice. I was skeptical about running Microsoft anything, but I thought, "Hey: Different OS, Different Codebase, maybe it won't be filled with bugs!" Boy, was I wrong!

Welcome the iPhod (1)

digitaldc (879047) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511477)

The upcoming iPhod will kill Bill's MSCellphone. It is a 5 terrabyte iPod mashed with a game player cell phone. Sorry Bill, once again you are wrong. But nice try!

Yes and (1)

mbrewthx (693182) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511479)

Video killed the radio star!!!!

I call bullshit. (1, Insightful)

Tuxedo Jack (648130) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511480)

While the idea that a cellular phone could perform the duties of an iPod seemns preposterous at first, I seem to recall some Taiwanese group made a rather large (1TB or so, if memory serves) flash chip a while back, and that could easily serve for music, videos, photos, and whatnot that requires storage on the machine.

However, a phone will not replace the iPod, not unless it can run DRM-less media. Too many people know about DRM these days, and more and more people are avoiding it like the plague.

Not only that, the iPod doesn't have goddamned annoying ringtones that go off in the worst places.

Even though this is slashdot.. (2, Insightful)

Pwned (799180) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511482)

He does have a point, atleast as I see it. Portable devices seem to be moving in a direction of doing everything, rather than having one dedicated purpose (blackberry is an example of this IMHO) and unless apple starts to put out an appliance that appeals to a wider crowd, I can see them getting pushed out of the market but larger companies. I'm not saying that they'll be microsoft though(or microsoft powered even)

Been there, done that. (1)

llamaguy (773335) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511484)

People have tried having multimedia phones before. 3G hasn't been as successful as the companies hoped. Who actually buys a mobile to watch low-quality video clips on? Chances are, these mobile phones will cost vastly more than an ipod, and maybe have other disadvantages. Plus you've got the 'ew, windows' effect on some people to contend with.

News Flash! (5, Funny)

smug_lisp_weenie (824771) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511486)

Person Y says technology by company X won't last.

Instead, person Y believes technology made by person Y's company will win long-term!

What is he supposed to say? (1)

MarkEst1973 (769601) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511487)

"Yeah, I love my iPod. It kicks the shit out of anything we've got cookin'..."

** an aid whispers in Gates' ear **

"As I was saying, iPods are on the way out. Apple sucks. We're going to give you your MP3s on your phone..."

hes probably right (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511490)

i have already replaced my mp3 player with a windows smartphone (the mpx220 from att) it doesnt even have to be a windows based phone. a linux phone that doubles as an mp3 player is fine too. the point is in the end people will always go for the single device that covers 2 functions (or more in the case of a phone with pda like functions)

All about context. (1)

Hercynium (237328) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511492)

Yeah, in a few years, the iPod will be eclipsed by some other revolutionary device, just like so many other gadgets before. Maybe microsoft will do it, maybe not... but a cell-phone? I doubt it. Mr. Gates has enough business acumen to know that smart cell-phones aren't the type of gadget 13 year olds will be begging their parents for at christmas.

IPod Phone? (1)

ZiakII (829432) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511493)

If Linux and Windows both appeared on PDAs? What stops apple from moving to PDA, and then cell phones, I am more then sure they have already thought about it and brainstormed ways they can do this effectively.

Another Infamous Bill Gates Quote (1)

mfh (56) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511499)

Bill's 160 IQ [aceviper.net] is over-rated. He's gullable!! Bill is getting this information from his advisors and at least one of them has a higher IQ and a bone to pick.

Next Bill Gates will demonstrate how an abacus can defeat the home computer in a game of Texas Holdem!

I agree (1)

Darvin (878219) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511501)

I have to agree that in the future we will use cell/mobile phones as our portable media players. With the increasing space availiable on cell phones, and technology and software, music will be an increasing want on mobiles. Smart phones is where it's at. Will it be with microsoft operating systems? Only time will tell. But sure enough, it will happen.

I'm shocked!! (2, Insightful)

JoeLinux (20366) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511503)

I'll bet in his next prediction, he'll say that the internet is just a fad..er...wait...

Ignore him...his predictions are merely him using corporate feelgoodspeak in order to try to convince MBAs to follow his product line.

Picture him in a wizards hat and cloak, making dire predictions, selling the cure-all for those ails in his cloak. Kinda suspicious...

Typical (1)

tktk (540564) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511505)

Bill Gates: "The consumer is always unpredictable. In principle, you can only throw products onto the market and then learn from your mistakes..."

Some companies actually try to design and test their products first.

And I'm still waiting for MSFT to learn from its mistakes.

I Agree (1)

BioCS.Nerd (847372) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511507)

I think Bill is right: the iPod is on it's way out.

Apple isn't going to blow it this time though. I wouldn't be surprised to see an all-in-one device from the boys in Cupertino sometime in the next few years. The cell phone recently discussed on here by Nokia [engadget.com] is an indicator of things to come.

Sure, they may...or at least they'll try... (3, Insightful)

daveschroeder (516195) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511509)

Wonder why the iTunes phone isn't out yet?

No carrier wants to touch it. Let people sync their *own* files with their *own* phone?? Unheard of!

They want to charge $2 or more per song [businessweek.com] that you download to your phone. "Paying for convenience", as it were, or so they say...

Yea... right (1)

FuzzzyLogik (592766) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511517)

The more I look at microsoft and bill gates the more i think the company as a whole is on it's way out. They're behind in the trends, they don't quite "get it" on all fronts. The iPod is sticking around whether he likes it or not, in fact it seems like Apple is ahead of Microsoft here on the mobile phone front, the iTunes phone is supposedly coming out in June. When will Microsofts implementation come out? Around the time of longhorn? so... probably not this decade. We'll see, but I see myself wanting another iPod when and if my iPod dies. Simple as that.

Convergence.. (1)

jimmyCarter (56088) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511519)

He's right. And soon enough, the cell phone will beat the camera and the PDA as well. What remains to be soon is if Apple jumps into the market for these devices.

Windows CE sucks goats balls through straws (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511523)

I don't have much hope for Win CE 5.0 given problems with earlier versions. One big problem with Windows CE is that each hardware manufacturer customizes it for each device. Ever try getting upgrades to newer Windows CE from the hardware vendor? It doesn't happen unless you trash your existing hardware buy the latest device! Of course you can't just use a Windows CE upgrade for another device because each build is custom to a specific piece of hardware. And trust me you will want to upgrade because Windows CE has a lot of problems.

So much for software being easily updatable. You'd think we'd have progressed beyond having to rewire hardware to do a software update.

Summary: Windows CE = Shit

Financial clout = Truth? (1)

kc01 (772943) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511527)

Let's see:

1. Gates is rich.
2. Therefore he must be smart to have amassed that wealth.
3. He's THE richest,
4. Therefore, he must be THE smartest.

So of course I'll not buy an iPod, I'll follow his lead and buy a Win Phone.

But wait, who was it that said "640k ought to be enough for anyone?"
So much for vision...

Mobile OSses (2, Interesting)

EiZei (848645) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511529)

Too bad for billy boy that the biggest mobile phone manufacturer is pretty deeply attached to symbian..

And in the future.... (1)

devphaeton (695736) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511530)

Cell phones will be able to take pictures, play music, capture and display video, surf the web, utilize VOIP, scan/fax/print/, and various other daily functions. They will also be the size of a small refrigerator and require a propane generator.

You could say that for a lot of things.... (1)

suman28 (558822) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511532)

I have always been one to say that whatever a product does, I just wish it would do better, not a 100 things in one, because with today's tech, it just won't do any of the 100 things correctly. It is like have a cell phone with a camera. Yeah. I have a camera witha cell phone, but for the next 4 - 5 years, I don't see me replacing my digital camera for the one in my phone.

I'm not a huge fan of format-restricted Ipods, but (4, Insightful)

FreeUser (11483) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511536)

I won't be a fan of Ipods until the play my ogg files (until then, my Rio Karma will do just fine), but Bill Gate's is full of shit.

The Ipod interface is excellent, and with manufacturers producing quad-channel-GSM cell-phones-on-a-chip, Apple is going to have a much easier time adding cell-phone functionality to an Ipod than Microsoft is ever going to have adding an equivelently easy-to-use and satisfying interface to their so-called smart-phones.

I like my Motorola A700 PDA/Phone, but I don't use it to listen to music despite the fact that it is a capable MP3 player. The Ipod and Rio Karma are optimized for music playback--I've yet to see a cell phone that is so optimized without giving up PDA or cell-phone features to do it. I suspect Apple will be the first out with something that does just work, and it will probably be some variation of the Ipod.

Bill your Full of it again (1)

PacketScan (797299) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511539)

What's to say you won't be able to buy a cell phone attachment for your ipod, similar to the Itrip and other devices? Billy Think it out next time so you don't look so one sided.

Apple already teaming with Motorola? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511540)

Haven't there already been quite a few news items about how Apple is in the midst of teaming with Motorola to create an iTunes capable phone? Didn't Bill read any of those?

itunes mobile (1)

thelost (808451) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511543)

that's fine with me, as long as i can install iTunes [gizmodo.com] on it I will be happy ;)

Failed Computer Quotes (1)

fwice (841569) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511555)

"As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run," -- Bill Gates

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman, IBM

"There is no reason anyone in the right state of mind will want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, President, DEC

Revelation from the future -- M$ releaes a mp3 player similar to the ipod, with very similar 'technology'

Never happen (4, Insightful)

David Horn (772985) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511556)

Microsoft has tried to do this already with the Smartphone. I have a C500 running Windows Mobile, with a 512MB Mini-SD card. I'm with him that soon we'll have mini hard disks in the phones.

What I don't buy is that people will use it as an iPod replacement. Why? Because it's designed by committee. The headphone jack is on the bottom of the phone. It's 2.5mm so you have to carry around a bulky adaptor.

The phone ships with Media Player 9 as default which sucks. You have to navigate to Media Player to change a song, and if someone rings you have to unplug the headphones. (I guess this wouldn't matter but they provide such shit ones with the one that you have to use your own.

this guy is a joke (1)

eyeareque (454991) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511565)

Bill Gates needs to pull his head out of his ass. One of these days he needs to accept he can be beat, has been beat, and to learn how to take his competition seriously.

Cellphone will beat iPod... (4, Funny)

EvilTwinSkippy (112490) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511566)

Cellphone will beat iPod. iPod will beat PDA. PDA beats Cellphone.

It's like "Rock Paper Scissors"

He's Right (2, Informative)

SparafucileMan (544171) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511568)

Uh guys, he's right. Nokia is releasing their new phone in a few months: 4gb HD, phone, 2mp camera, and with decent battery life (as good as ipod!). Price ~$700. Now, imagine it in a few years. Why would anyone have 3 seperate gadgets, taking up 3 pockets (i only have 1 free pocket anyway), when you could get all 3 together in a tiny little phone for roughly the same price? ... Pretty soon, your cell-phone, mp3 player, pda/blackberry, and camera will all be in one tiny box. All that'll be left is your desktop computer/server/entertainment system for home, and if you're lucky, your laptop. Am I missing something?

other Gates initiatives (5, Insightful)

jtotheh (229796) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511574)

Gates was saying everyone would switch to Tablet PCs a while ago. I think they had a thing called Passport that was supposed to be wildly successful as well. They're always pushing high powered high priced things in the portable/PDA universe. But sometimes something small and simple (and reliable) like an iPod mini is preferable. It does one thing and does it well.

my predicition (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12511582)

Longhorn is on its way out, gradually being replaced by operating systems that are actually released.

Bill Says IPod Will Lose (1)

putko (753330) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511589)

Bill Gates says Apple will lose out. If Apple screws up once and Microsoft pounces (and wipes them out in this market), then yes, Gates is correct.

The only way for Apple to survive is to keep on holding Microsoft at bay. Microsoft is like a killer robot, pursuing them forever, until they mess up.

Charles Ferguson, in his book [amazon.com] goes into this. Charles sold his company to Microsoft, figuring he didn't have a chance competing with them, and that Netscape, the other suitor, had their heads up their asses (and no future competing with Microsoft).

Long run? How about this sprint? (1)

otisg (92803) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511592)

In the long run? We're all dead in the long run, somebody once said. Apple is not sitting back, twiddling their thumbs and enjoying their iPod success. In this game being nimble counts A LOT (what was the last release of IE? Windows? Word? Any new main-stream MS product?). See also: Google.com :)

He's probably right (1)

realmolo (574068) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511593)

I don't know if we're all going to be using Windows Mobile, but the "convergence" of the cell phone and music player is inevitable. It's already happening, and the only reason it hasn't happened MORE is that iTunes files will only play on your computer or on an iPod. If Apple ever licenses the AAC decoder to cell-phone manufacturers, or if one of the WMA-based music stores takes off, then people will start thinking twice before buying an iPod, when they can have that functionality in their phone and not have to carry around another device.

Swiss army knife (2, Interesting)

debiansid (881350) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511609)

Cellphones are becoming more and more like swiss army knifes, providing countless number of features - cameras, mp3 players, gaming, email, etc. If cellphones are going to end iPods and other MP3 Players then they should put an end to cameras too in the near future with increasingly efficient resolutions of phonecams.

But in reality that is unlikely. Cameras will have a place in the market, regardless of advances of phonecam technology, because there will always be people, a whole lot of them actually, who would prefer an exclusive camera that doesn't disturb with phone calls while taking a picture. Similarly there will be people who would prefer an MP3 player that doesn't disturb their listening pleasure.

Past predictions by Bill G that turned out true (1)

Progman3K (515744) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511611)

"This new version of Windows will be much safer, stabler and faster than the current version of Windows"

Gee Bill, how can you keep doing this with a straight face?

Oh I forgot, you're laughing all the way to the bank.

Never take him that serious (1)

bogaboga (793279) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511612)

Remember his sayings about how much memory we'll ever need? What about his view on Linux in 1999? What about inter-operability? The problem is many people believe him. I don't.

Only to some ... (1)

gstoddart (321705) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511618)

There may be people who will eventualy converge so that everything is on their phones like cameras are now.

But if I'm going to buy an audio device (and I'm buying an iPod shuffle this week) I want a device which only does audio. And does it very well.

I always perceive these 'converged' devices as being half-assed implementations of several devices, and too big of a trade-off on each of them. I have a phone. I want an iPod. I don't want a PDA.

That coupled that, while I'm obviously not representative of all consumers, I wouldn't buy a phone that had Microsoft stuff in it anyway. I don't see why I should reward them in any way, nor why I should trust them to make a phone.

And, really, Bill Gates' record for predicting what will happen in the future is shitty --- it's always the same thing ... "some day Microsoft will make one of these and the world will flock to it". It's always wrong. They never deliver. Life goes on.

I'm sure by now he's predicted that we'd all shift over to Microsoft toilet paper, Microsoft houses, and Microsoft cars. They frequently demonstrate a lack of ability to deliver anything useful anyway.

Gates losing his grip. (1)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511626)

Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course.

Boy! Where do I buy them? How much?

maybe (1)

yagu (721525) | more than 9 years ago | (#12511631)

I agree with Gates on one point:

As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run.

I think other emerging ways to get music be they free or non-free.... they will have to become compatible with all devices, i.e., less DRM'ed, and more fair-use friendly... which iPod and iTunes is NOT. At some point there will be public awareness (am I over estimating the public's ability to figure this out?) and the public will demand more open architecture, and better quality music.

If Apple is able to sustain their dominance they'll have to do so by responding to consumers.

As for the rest of Gates' commentary, any "dominance" Microsoft reaches in cell phones/mobile technology will be achieved in the same way Microsoft has achieved dominance in their other product lines -- which means throwing money and versions at the market until something sticks... a luxury unfortunately not afforded truly creative and innovative companies.

For my own preferences I paraphrase a previous poster in a previous article thread about cell phone technology.... Give me a cell/mobile phone that has good quality voice transmission that doesn't drop calls. So far I know of no devices that meet those two simple criteria.

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