I, Cringely On A Momentous Week 221
rocketjam writes "Robert X. Cringley offers his take on three recent high-tech occurrences, saying they add up to an 'inflection point' that will change the landscape of the personal computer, video game, and electronic entertainment businesses forever. He briefly points out that Bill Gates' revelation that the next-gen XBox will offer music and movie playing capabilities as well as web-surfing will put MS into direct competition with its hardware OEM customers. He also touches on Yahoo's new music service and Apple's rumored movie download service. The meat of the article though is his take on the significance of Google's Web Accelerator. He says, 'If surfing can be doubled in speed for nothing, of course nearly everyone will go for it', the upshot of which is that AOL, MSN and Earthlink lose their relevancy. From this point more speculation on the implications of Google's success in this endeavor ensues."
Gasp! (Score:5, Funny)
no no no (Score:2)
Re:Gasp! (Score:4, Funny)
ooOO (Score:4, Insightful)
but we still need the "pundit deduction" in force here.
I do wonder about the xBox 360 though... can you say, "PC?"
Re:ooOO (Score:3)
XBOX 360 != PC. Just like XBOX != PC. That's like calling a man a woman because they're not biologically dissimilar and they can do pretty much the same work.
Re:ooOO (Score:5, Funny)
That makes the Xbox 360 a girly-box?
Me confused.
Re:ooOO (Score:3, Funny)
Re:ooOO (Score:3, Funny)
Re:ooOO (Score:2)
In a few years MS will be able to produce the xbox360 and not lose any money on it. Around that point they will release Longhorn and Office on it. If tax software and other popular programs follow, MS will have taken a huge chunk of business from Dell and other PC makers.
Re:you are correct (Score:2)
Yep, just like my PS2, GameCube, N64, and Dreamcast are also crappy PCs.
"got your goat."
Sort of. I don't have any real affection for the XBOX, I just can't believe how many computer-intelligent people don't know the difference between a game console and a PC is. A PC isn't a PC because it runs an X86 processor. It's a PC because it has certain pieces of hardware AND it runs general purpose apps. The XBOX sort of qualifies for the former (the processor inside it may be Pentium b
Re:you are correct (Score:2)
I still think a proper desktop PC is better than any possible "appliance" type PC, or even a laptop for that matter.
Re:you are correct (Score:2)
As for an X-Box replacing a pc, all most faculty at my college use their machines for is word processing (and some spreadsheet), surfing the web, email and sorting porn. There's 10%-15% who also use some specific apps to their discipline but they're usually in the natural sciences building and that place smells funny.
I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of computer users were similarly limited in their use. So, MS sells boxes to 75% of the market and leaves 25% for the rest of the pc manuf
Re:you are correct (Score:2)
Ugh I'm grammatically challenged today.
also, your humor could use some work.
The finger (Score:2)
The same thing they've been saying to the rest of us for years. It rhymes with "duck foo".
MS has always done this in the software space. They work with other vendors to do the stuff they don't, woo them, make all sorts of promises, then one day announce their own version and let those vendors try to survive on eating their product they can't sell. Ju
Re:ooOO (Score:2)
He doesn't quite mention ho
3 powerpc cores do not a PC make (Score:2)
Re:ooOO (Score:2)
Yes, and modern jet aircraft are somewhat more reliable than old piston-to-prop aircraft.
Look it up....
More on XBOX 360. (Score:4, Interesting)
I work at Microsoft as do several of my friends. A couple work on the XBOX 360 and told me something over beer that really struck me as great marketting. Microsoft has purposely designed this box to be easy to break and mod-chip. The reason? Sales. They can go to game design houses and say "We sold X million units. You should design for us." and they will. Very much as in how they don't care much about the home pirate as they know it gives them mindshare.
I'm not breaking an NDA here as I'm not actually on the dev team.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2, Interesting)
That said, all wireless was a brilliant move. So's the harddrive.
One of my buddies is already planning not only to buy one, but setting up to get it painted by the same guy who did his motorcycle helmet.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Interesting)
Obviously, if XBox Live is more attractive, people will do the opposite of what you're describing: they'll be hesitant to mod their Xboxes, because then they won't be able to access Live. That is, unless Microsoft stops caring a
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Interesting)
MS sells lots of XBOXs because they can be mod'd
They tell game makers "We sold X units."
Game makers make more games based on that
MS says "We have Y games for XBOX 360!"
People buy more XBOX 360s.
Mod chips can easily be turned off for XBOX Live play.
Microsoft has all the various mod chips in their R&D lab. They know how they work and they're leaving loopholes for the mod chip makers in the future product. They don't care if the game companies have 30% of their games pirated,
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:4, Interesting)
My man, you forget one very important thing... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2, Insightful)
If the xbox is easy to mod.. then more ppl pirate games.
More games pirated doesn't equate to more sales.
In fact if anything, ppl being able to pirate and play games easily, means that less of the original games would be sold.
Unless you mean the very original person who pirated the game had to buy it at some point, but I doubt that would increase sales much - everyone else down the line would just copy/download the game and burn it.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Interesting)
At the same time, I'm not sure I believe the grandparent poster...
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2, Interesting)
Look. Microsoft doesn't make lots of money on the game titles themselves (other than those developed in house). They're trying to go to a subscription based model ala XBOX Live. THAT is where the money is. They don't care about piracy on the retail side of things, that's not going to put a publisher out of business but it will entice people to buy XBOX 360s.
The security put into place is just to appease most publishers that "Yes, we have a way of digitally signing games."
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:4, Insightful)
The obvious statement about banning comes from the fact that modded Xboxs can run hacks which can lead to cheating. However the PC suffers from this problem anyway and the PC game companies provide things such as Punkbuster to block out cheaters.
I'd love to believe what you are saying and I'd love to see homebrew development on Xbox 360 - but it doesn't seem to jive with the current Xbox mod situation.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
Many organizations are strict with a few offenders to show that they are doing something, but in general allow the practice because it benefits them. Larger penetration of Windows and Office helps Microsoft, because "everybody runs it", even if a fair amount of them are pirated. They still bust pirates on a regular basis.
Likewise, selling x amount more consoles because people are hacking them up for other purposes will not only
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
However, then we have the Sega Dreamcast case where only a bootdisc was required (modding wasn't even required) and they failed horribly. They had tons of good games, but I believe their marketing strategy went kaput and they finally gave up on the hardware business. Maybe
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm not breaking an NDA here as I'm not actually on the dev team.
Well, but MS still hates you: modded xboxes will presumably also play warez games, so the game design houses now won't be convinced that easily that the plattform already has a hole in it...
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:4, Interesting)
The main reason I modded my xbox was just for that reason, and I think I'm accurate in saying that my xbox has spent more than 20 times as much time running XBMC (for streaming video from my PC for the most part) than it has spent running games.
If this is built in to the 360, then that cuts out a big reason for many people to mod it, which to me seems like good business sense. I'm just curious how comparable the two are.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:5, Funny)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Insightful)
No, but you are a Microsoft employee, so you probably *are* breaking a general (perhaps even implied) NDA. Company employees generally are *not* at liberty to discuss unannounced stuff publicly, whether they're directly involved or not.
For example, I can't tell you about a number of projects being developed by my company, and I'm not involved with any of them, either. (Not that you'd care about them, of course)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:5, Insightful)
Congrats, you broke my bullshit detector.
First, if you work for someplace with an NDA, it covers any nondisclosure information unless they're totally incompetant... so even if you overheard someone while getting coffee, you're probably still breaking NDA. In fact, you could be breaking NDA even if it's not true.
Second, the revenue stream for a console is its games. Weak or no copy protection scares developers. The Xbox 360 will probably be sold at a huge loss, so there's no profit from just selling consoles. Is mindshare worth that much?
Third, even if you're telling the truth on both counts, I wouldn't be bragging about this. It makes the 360 reek even more of Dreamcast: out early, no protection, big hype... big flop.
the exception... (Score:2)
Though if I were the "MS" AC, I'd want that order in writing.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:3, Funny)
> I work at Microsoft as do several of my friends...
Oh, I'm terribly sorry!
Simon
yes, you did, AC Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
but that's OK, we have two competing channels here, and let the best one win.
that will be the one with iTunes and links to Pixar trailers and 32-inch screens that you can drown in....
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
Man, you're an idiot. NDA generally applies to contractors, not employees. As an employee, your rights are limited by all that shit you signed without reading when you were hired. I have a feeling it didn't limit your responsibility of secrecy to only things you work on; I'm pretty sure it covers stuff your coworkers tell you over beer. Even if you signed nothing - and working for MS, that ain't the case - you'd be covered by trade secret
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2, Informative)
Man, you're an idiot. NDA generally applies to contractors, not employees.
I've signed several NDAs as an employee which are still binding. No more or less as I've signed as a contractor/consultant.
Re:More on XBOX 360. (Score:2)
I'm not saying I believe what the AC is saying, but the way you put it, it matches Microsoft's strategy in every market they've ever entered, doesn't it?
Of course it's irrelevant, because all three major consoles will be cracked eventually, and sooner rather than later. If anything (assuming there's any truth to this at all), Microsoft's strategy in getting the 360 out before the competition is to give the crackers a head start.
The Mysterious Future (Score:4, Insightful)
And, once Microsoft begins to gradually dominate that market, their positions might become similar to that of a Wal-Mart supplier. Their business models will change as they begin to provide manufacturing services for Microsoft.
Re:The Mysterious Future (Score:2, Interesting)
Michael
Another "Web Accelerator?" (Score:2, Interesting)
But I guess I am just a fool.
As Seen On TV is in trouble.... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:As Seen On TV is in trouble.... (Score:5, Funny)
He said he was too.
So we have that in common.
Re:As Seen On TV is in trouble.... (Score:2)
Re:As Seen On TV is in trouble.... (Score:5, Funny)
--CTRL - BREAK --
Phew. Got out of that one...
Re:As Seen On TV is in trouble.... (Score:2)
Apple's rumour-monger has an identity (ASOTV); Microsoft's one posts AC. Maybe coincidence, but ASOTV appeared just after the fuss over stuff leaked to thinksecret [thinksecret.com] had been resolved, so he could have the job title of "Official 'unofficial and off-the-record' spokesman". After all, Apple used to have "Evangelists" (maybe they still do).
Damn you Robert X. Cringely!!! (Score:4, Funny)
Stop Robert! Stop for the sake of my pocketbook and my sanity!!!
Speaking as an OEM (Score:3, Interesting)
Personally, this just reinforces my opinions of late of the complete end of sales with Microsoft products. If a "partner" decides to go into direct competition, then they cease to be a valid partner. Linux is gaining mindshare and market share. Windows has become the product every wants to get rid of but is afraid they can't.
Hence forth a new business model for any OEM is to offer Linux training and products. Free of charge or very low cost. Let's show MS that they can't piss on the army of people who help put them where they are by even supporting their crap. If it wasn't for places like mine all over the US, how would MS get their stuff repaired? You know full well they won't work with someone over the phone to resolve issues. That will just take more value away from their products. And of course the huge OEMs answer is always "use the restore CD" and fail to mention that data will be lost.
no no no (Score:3, Insightful)
Second, it is technically impossible for Google to pre-render Flash and pass it on to you. Flash isn't "server-side" -- it's done by your computer, which needs to be fat enough to run it.
Third, Yahoo's music service is priced well, but they're still misleading. They say "1 million songs" for $6.99/month, but that's to have them streamed to you, not downloaded. You can only download a handfull of tracks per month. Booo!
Fourth, why didn't Cringley (or anyone for that matter) ask if/when Google will try to buy Yahoo?
Lastly, no mention of Flickr? I think Google messed up when they let that puppy slip through their fingers and be purchased by Yahoo. Picasa? Puh-lease-a.
Re:no no no (Score:2)
"Inflection point"? (Score:3, Insightful)
Man, I really wish that Cringely, as a supposed pundit to the geek masses, would not contribute to distorting into sensationalist manager-ese technobabble a phrase that already has a precise mathematical meaning [wikipedia.org].
Re:"Inflection point"? (Score:2)
You're not talking about the "giga" prefix are you?
Interesting in theory... (Score:3, Interesting)
At that point, you'll buy your PC from Google, use Google as your ISP, surf an Internet that is really the Google cache,
(A) Right about here the DOJ decides to take action...
be fed ads and sold content from Google servers. Its a GoogleWorld that requires no AOL, no Microsoft, no Intel, no HP or Dell -- only Google, cable companies, telephone companies, users, and of course advertisers and web page producers.
Doubtful because of (A).
It's surprising to me that he didn't mention the comment of the week; that from Gates about mobile phone making iPods obsolete. It was an important observation, since it is already happening. My phone serves as an MP3 player already. While it doesn't have the capacity of the iPod (yet), who cares... It has an antenna, has considerably more functionality, and I Always-Have-It-With-Me(TM)
Re:Interesting in theory... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Interesting in theory... (Score:2)
I do. I like having 20+ GBs of music with me. I also don't carry a phone. Can't stand the things. So, extrapolating from my one data point (I don't like phones) it's obvious that mobile phones will never take off.
Xbox replacing low end PC market? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Xbox replacing low end PC market? (Score:3, Insightful)
You can ALREADY buy a capable PC from Dell for $299... what makes you think the Xbox 360 price point will be $300??? Most guesses I've seen are closer to $500. Plus the accessories (e.g. 802.11 adapter) will be more expensive because it is a closed architecture. So while
His powers of prognostication astound (Score:5, Funny)
Cringely is impressed that Google is offering a web accelerator service, something AOL has done for years; that the XBox will play music and video, something the playstations 1 and 2 did, respectively; that Yahoo is unveiling a service almost identical to the Napster service that appeared in the wake of the iTunes Music Store; and that Apple may, at some unspecified point in the future be releasing a product.
Well, that's all well and good. But I think the really important thing for the tech market is, will Gore or Bush win the election? Because Cringely doesn't weigh in on that at all.
Re:His powers of prognostication astound (Score:3, Insightful)
Well something to think about - AOL grew out of their own network, which sucked but they had full control over, into an interweb gateway (which they still suck at) but google has done it simply as a side effect of having built the required infrastructure they use to do other tasks very very well. With a small effort they've nearly moved into another market and further solidified their status as valua
Double the speed of my web surfing? (Score:2)
lots of noise, not much here (Score:5, Insightful)
Here, he seems to have missed the fact that Google Accelerator has already failed and is being withdrawn. The world is not going to redesign their web pages so that GETs have no side effect.
A couple of weeks ago, he waved his hands and explained that airline scheduling is just like network scheduling and you can speed up the net by eliminating the hubs and running traffic directly from one host to another. Then he waved his hands again and said that hubs are servers.
Last December after the tsunami, he told us how to build a warning system that could be deployed by putting a networked PC "on every populated beach a month from now." Never mind that third-world populated beaches usually don't have electricity, much less an internet connection.
Last July he designed a scheme to compress video for broadcast by encoding only what the retina was focusing on. But it would work only if every person receiving the broadcast always pointed their retinas to the same place as everyone else.
Cringely is at his best when describing a funky experiment that he's actually done, like when he was one of the first to put a WiFi antenna in a Pringles can. But his blue-sky predictions just don't fly anymore.
GWA will not change the world, Cringe (Score:4, Interesting)
Er, maybe not. For a start, the GWA doesn't "double" surfing speed. Second, with current bandwidth, I doubt most people would notice or care much about "double" text-loading speeds (GWA doesn't get that sort of compression on images, MP3s, etc, obviously). Third, it's not complex technology. People have been developing (and using) this crap for ages. It's not as if Google have cracked cheap, in-your-house nuclear fusion.
Web Accelerator is no big news, folks (Score:5, Informative)
http://webaccelerator.google.com/support.html#bas
Revolutionary, it is not.
rendering flash? (Score:3, Insightful)
wtf is this guy talking about? How is google going to render my flash? what a dumbass.
Download speed enhancement as benefit (Score:2, Interesting)
You want a revolution the likes of which will blow away the $ figures of the early dot bomb era?
Increase the frigging upload speeds.
With 5mbit up, 'distributed distribution' becomes practical. Everyone will be able to relay multiple channels and a cornucopia of virtual of virtual networks will evolve.
You want your friggin inflection Cringer? It's the congruence of cheap, quality, direct to video recording coupled with inexpensive ed
Speaking of inflection points, (Score:4, Insightful)
2. Microsoft is finally playing someone else's game. The surprise is that it's Apple, like always. Colour me astonished.
3. Google accelerator. So noone is bothered by privacy concerns about an Internet-sized cache? Never saw that coming.
Hmmm (Score:5, Insightful)
There is a really, really, really, really good reason for Google to go through this "Heroic" effort. In fact, it is almost sickeningly self serving. Googles accelerator will allow them to capture the click stream of every participating user. That is, google will know where you are going, what you are reading, and how long you are reading it for. That is, they will have an entire stream of data to more accurately return search results and target ads. This will also help their page rank system be more "accurate".
This isn't a technology play as Cringely supposes - IBM's not doing this becuase umm, wait they don't do that sort of thing - MS isn't doing it becuase they don't really have a need for the data. Google is "catching" up to companies like double click and poindexter at the moment. Their plan will ultimately give them way more data than any other ad server out there. Online advertising is about data, the more data you have about a user, the larger a profile they can build about you. In google's case they can make their targeted ad offerings far more relevent which will equal $$$.
Web Accelerator Stalled (Score:2, Informative)
Why Google Web Accelerator? (Score:5, Interesting)
How do you index URLs? Simple: you start someplace and spider out from there.
What if people are going directly to unlinked, or unindexable pages?
Well heck, you stick something in the way so you see everyplace they go.
Simple. GWA is just a way for Google to get a lead on the "dark web," just like the google toolbar. From your point of view, it speeds stuff up somewhat. That's it!
Competes with PC? I think not! (Score:4, Informative)
Interesting (Score:2)
Is Microsoft going to do what Apple has never wanted because it will destroy the Mac-Market? Maybe there will be PowerPC(Mac)-clones popping up in the next few years, which will run MS-Windows. Small step to have it also run on original Macs and destroy Apple's market share.
Maybe a x86 OSX wasn't su
Re:Interesting (Score:2)
Give Gringely a break! (Score:2)
Re:3.2 GHz PowerPC Xbox? Has APPLE heard of that? (Score:3, Insightful)
Erm. Couple of things:
1.) Microsoft is almost definitely losing money on these units. That would be a dumb business move for Apple.
2.) It's not clear, today, whether or not those processors could do the general computing jobs they'd need to on desktop machines. I'm going to be honest, I don't know much about this. I j
Re:3.2 GHz PowerPC Xbox? Has APPLE heard of that? (Score:3, Interesting)
Well, it is already clear that they are NOT PowerPC cores. The hardware specifications state that they are BASED on PowerPC, so you can't assume identical clock-for-clock performance. Most likely the hardware in the XBOX360 will be much more powerful than anything below high-end Macs (that will be 2x2.7 at that time, if
Re:3.2 GHz PowerPC Xbox? Has APPLE heard of that? (Score:2, Informative)
Just remember there are many PowerPC processors [ibm.com] and cores [ibm.com] that IBM makes. This is a "custom" fabbed chip for Microsoft with a (3) VMX unit(s) attached. This is not a Power4, Power5, or 970/FX/GX or like chips. Also, has pricing for XBox live has not been announced, but $300USD seems right.
But it sure would be nice to have >3GHz G5's or dual cores....or dual/dual...or ...
Re:3.2 GHz PowerPC Xbox? Has APPLE heard of that? (Score:5, Informative)
First, it's a multi-core 3.2GHz PowerPC based cell controller not a PowerPC CPU in the classical sense. Sony also has abandoned the CPU design in favor of multi-cell design for PS3. Second, the later something is designed, the newer it's components can be. Third, it's may not be up to Apple. Apple has always been at the mercy of its suppliers. Motorola could not provide enough G4 chips for the PowerMac a few years ago. Hence, they dumped Motorola when they decided to develop the G5. When IBM comes out with a 3GHz PowerPC CPU that Apple can use and Apple doesn't use it, then you might have a point.
Xbox 360 CPU != CELL (Score:2)
You have no clue, don't you?
Re:3.2 GHz PowerPC Xbox? Has APPLE heard of that? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Kick the dog or kick the bucket? (Score:3)
It is a really funny ending to the piece though.
It is intended to sum up rather pointless, reaction-getting behaviour. I think.
Re:Kick the dog or kick the bucket? (Score:2)
Kick the dog... meaning Microsoft didn't do anything this week, while three of its competitors made news in different ways. Out of frustration, Microsoft kicked the dog.
Re:Kick the dog or kick the bucket? (Score:2)
Yeah, I guess that half hour infomercial on eMpTyVee doesn't count as anything...
Re:Kick the dog or kick the bucket? (Score:2)
This week, Philips signed an agreement with Microsoft that will integrate Windows Media and DRM at the chip level into all its consumer products. Microsoft, Philips team up for multi media software [newratings.com]
Re:Nothing to see here (Score:5, Insightful)
One of the more prized members of my collection is a CompuMate. It's a keyboard that plugs into an Atari 2600, making the machine into a computer with a usable BASIC.
For over 20 years, every damn console has tried to say, "Look, it's also a computer!" And every single time, it's an utter flop. No one will use a console to do what a computer does, because the console invariably is a substandard personal computer.
Seriously, how many times have we seen this? The CompuMate, the Intellivision Computer Adaptor, the Coleco Adam, the FamiCom, the Sega Channel
No gaming console will ever threaten personal computers in any area except gaming (and even that's arguable). I don't know that I've ever seen a single business lesson which has been so forcibly resisted by one generation of companies after another.
Re:Nothing to see here (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Nothing to see here (Score:2)
Did people use 8-bit computers to play music and videos? Nope. (It wasn't that long ago that FMV clips on PC games were jerky 15-fps block-fests.) Did they communicate over a high speed global network? Nope. You were lucky if you had a 300 baud modem.
Today the mainstream computer market uses PCs solely as media players and communications devices. To a lesser extent, they could use utilities like word processors, tax software, an
Re:If wishes were horses... (Score:3, Insightful)
this is how much it actually speeds up ... (Score:3, Interesting)
Without Google Web Accelerator: 1.9 hrs
With Google Web Accelerator: 1.5 hrs
that is for a european user with a pIV 2.4 and 1 gig ram on a 3mbit dsl line.
i case you're asking yourself "how are the numbers calculated": Performance statistics are estimated by testing a percentage of requested pages.
Re:this is how much it actually speeds up ... (Score:2)
Re:My thoughs (Score:2, Funny)
CRINGELY. (Score:2)
Re:web no more (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Golden opportunity... (Score:2)
Re:Three no four reasons for MS to cut the clones (Score:2)