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Xbox Marketing VP Says 10M 360s In First Year

Zonk posted more than 9 years ago | from the lots-of-faceplates dept.

XBox (Games) 92

Peter Moore, the VP for Xbox marketing, has publicly stated that the Xbox 360 will sell 10 million units by the end of the first year. From the article: "The advantage of launching first for Microsoft, though, is that it has the chance to establish itself as a prominent next-generation format without initial competition. 'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform,' said Moore at the ELSPA event. The target is certainly an ambitious one, as the current lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."

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10 million? (4, Funny)

grub (11606) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875122)


That's a lot of modchips that have to get made.

I rule! (1, Funny)

grub (11606) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875666)


A fr1st pr0s7 from an hour ago! Woo, too bad they rejected my article on making your own home-brew TARDIS...

Re:10 million? (1)

Saige (53303) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876036)

I'm hoping and praying that it's a LONG time before we see any 360 modchips. Because the longer it takes, the longer before we have to deal with the obnoxious anti-social hackers and modders who are only interested in ruining Xbox Live for everyone else.

Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.

Re:10 million? (2)

mekkab (133181) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876084)

Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.

Such a sad state of affairs when you put your profitability above the lives and health of others...

It reminds me of a debate I go into in college regarding the use of cats for sleep apnea research. The crux of it came down to the person I was arguing with didn't really like humans at all, and much preferred cats. I had no retort.

Re:10 million? (1)

hunterx11 (778171) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876225)

I think Microsoft has enough experience now to start banning modded Xbox 360's from Live right from the start.

Re:10 million? (2, Interesting)

grub (11606) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876400)


Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.

I have an Executor3 in my xbox. Have never gone on xbox-live but love playing the retro games ala nes, snes, colecovision, atari, n64, apple ][, c64, et al. What's wrong with that?

Sounds like you need some anger management, it's only gaming.

Re:10 million? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877785)

Modchips have absolutely nothing to do with XBL cheaters. You cant run a mod while being on live. Thank you come again.

Re:10 million? (1)

pnice (753704) | more than 9 years ago | (#12881860)

Are the people using mod chips actually playing on Xbox Live? I know I can't...and even the freaking Live Aware games will get on if you aren't carefull and your friend is playing a game...thus banning your account from Xbox Live. Personally, I play using Kai Xlink when I go online because they don't care if you mod your console or not. Plus with that neat little Linksys firmware upgrade I don't even have to use my PC to setup games! It's all done through XBMC.

Sounds reasonable... (2, Insightful)

RogueyWon (735973) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875143)

This doesn't seem an especially unrealistic estimate. If anything, I'd say it's slightly lower than where MS should be aiming, given their stated intention to rival the PS3. After all, they've got an entire Christmas season to themselves, they've got a pretty well oiled marketing machine and they're going to be hitting the Japanese market *much* harder than they did last time around. I know that's not saying much, but with the developers they have on board this time, it could all end very differently.

If I had to hazard a guess as to why they've picked the 10 million figure, I'd say that they've decided: a) that it sounds a nice big number to people who don't know the console market b) that they're probably not going to have to give embarrassing explanations when they fall short of it and c) that there's a good chance they'll exceed it, in which case they can have a good gloat.

Re:Sounds reasonable... (1)

ZephyrXero (750822) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875804)

Yeah, I mean...since MS said they're going to be launching for Europe, America and Japan all at the same time, this may be a very feasable estimate. You could split it 3 ways between those markets and you'd have just 3 million sales each (we'll say 4 in the US for reality's sake and to make it 10). Those kind of numbers don't sound very unreasonable once you break it down like that. Now, the only problem is the wildcard of how many people are going to be able to see the need to switch to the next generation yet. Graphics junkies like me will be able to tell the difference, but will the aveage joe be able to see that big of a difference between Doom3 on the Xbox and Gears of War on the Xbox360? $300 worth of a difference? I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

Re:Sounds reasonable... (1)

talksinmaths (199235) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876049)

Considering the the lackluster reception of the original X-box in Japan, I think the figures might need to be adjusted to something like 3/6/1 for Europe, America, and Japan (resp.). One never knows though.

Re:Sounds reasonable... (1)

ajd1474 (558490) | more than 9 years ago | (#12878013)

It's a shame the bastards couldn't fit Australia into their release schedule. Would it hurt to send a few down this way??

Screw you MS! I'm digging out my Atari 2600!

Re:Sounds reasonable... (1)

Zangief (461457) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875980)

I think they choosed the 10 million figure, because on the E3 before the launch of the Gamecube and Xbox (the PS2 was already in the market), Sony just announced that the console war was over, because there were already 10 millions of PS2 sold.

IIRC.

Target == momentum? (4, Funny)

Fr05t (69968) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875147)

'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform'

Well I set a target of having sex with 10 billion hot university girls by Christmas. TRY BEATING THAT MOMENTUM!

Re:Target == momentum? (5, Funny)

TheoB (859132) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875968)

Hm...

At about 12 Million, you're going to have to broaden your definition of "hot."

Around 30 Million, you're going to have to rethink "university."

At about 3.6 Billion, you may have to tinker with your standards for "girl."

It's downhill from there...

Re:Target == momentum? (1)

Ayaress (662020) | more than 9 years ago | (#12879726)

Not really. Note that he never said the word human.

Re:Target == momentum? (1)

KDR_11k (778916) | more than 9 years ago | (#12880013)

Yes but he said university. I don't know about you but I don't know any nonhumans that go to university. Otherwise you could just say he's a furry but unless he's into cattle those numbers will still not match. Well, sheep will definitely not suffice.

Re:Target == momentum? (1)

stevey (64018) | more than 9 years ago | (#12881662)

Don't forget that episode of the Simpsons where Ralph wants to go to Bovine University [snpp.com] !

Re:Target == momentum? (1)

AaronBrethorst (860210) | more than 9 years ago | (#12887751)

mmmm.... delicious tripe.

Re:Target == momentum? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876508)

Finally, Wilt Chamberlain's secret slashdot identity REVEALED!

Sources? (3, Informative)

Metaphorically (841874) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875674)

Where does the number come from? They have to have some kind of justification for it, especially when the article ends with "lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."

Seriously, is there some context for this? Can we read more of what Moore said somewhere?

Re:Sources? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12875816)

Context?! Moore?! Holy shit, Microsoft is going to double the number of Xboxes sold every year!

Re:Sources? (2, Insightful)

ZephyrXero (750822) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875989)

With the annoucement that Square-Enix will be supporting the 360, they can probably triple their sales per year...

Re:Sources? (1)

Lynxara (775657) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876127)

Not if that support is nothing but a release of Final Fantasy XI. And at E3, that's all Square-Enix announced for the 360.

Re:Sources? (1)

ZephyrXero (750822) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876455)

That was the only confirmed title, but they also mentioned a brand new title as well...

Re:Sources? (1)

Lynxara (775657) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876524)

I vaguely recall the Square rep I talked to at E3 saying it'd be another MMO. If so, then it'll probably be Fantasy Earth.

Re:Sources? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876735)

It's a real shame that your vague, fuzzy recollection has no bearing on reality whatsoever. It's only Final Fantasy XI - that's it.

Doesn't mean much in the long run (1)

Leknor (224175) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875676)

First, that figure is what they hope to sell, second if you believe history repeats itself then take note that the Dreamcast came out about the same amount of time ahead of the PlayStation 2.

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (2, Insightful)

superpulpsicle (533373) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876926)

That is very true. With the exception of NES in the 8-bit era, no other first launch console of a generation has outlasted a later counterpart.

- Turbo Graphics-16 killed by Sega Genesis
- Sega Saturn killed by PS1
- Dreamcast killed by PS2

Of course, M$ has something no other first launch company ever had. That's a billion dollar windows operating system.

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877476)

How about the PS2 launching a year ahead of the Xbox and GC?

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877581)

Well, the DC was launched before the PS2, so that's your first launch. I suppose some people feel that the DC was not a part of this gen. But then what gen is it a part of?

--

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (1)

Lord Pillage (815466) | more than 9 years ago | (#12878275)

It failed because it was between gens. That's why it doesn't fit into the the PS2/Xbox/GC generation.

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (0, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877822)

"Of course, M$ has something no other first launch company ever had. That's a billion dollar windows operating system."

OMFG, that is so fucking insightful!!!

It's like the same fucking morons posting the same fucking posts from 2000.

Someone wake me up from this nightmare.

Re:Doesn't mean much in the long run (1)

DeadScreenSky (666442) | more than 9 years ago | (#12884597)

It depends on your definition of "failed", really, and your definition of "generation" too. The PC Engine (ie Turbo Graphics 16) was more of a NES competitor, IMO, but it still did great business in markets like Japan (which actually really mattered back then). The same is true of the Sega Saturn, which for a reasonable time period in Japan was actually beating the PS1. Both consoles made their manufacturers some nice profits, even though they certainly didn't come in number one place.

Well... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12875703)

It worked so well for the Dreamcast

Profit (1)

fmwap (686598) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875704)

as a prominent next-generation format without initial competition.

Because inadequate testing and rushing into deployment has never given MS problems before, right? Oh wait...

'strue (1)

Elwood P Dowd (16933) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875708)

"The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform"

"Also, being provided as free gifts in happy meals gives tremendous momentum to a platform."

"Buy an XBox360 or we kill this dog."

Re:'strue (1)

Starsmore (788910) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876422)

But that just means Tim Roberts gets off [penny-arcade.com] . And we wouldn't want that, would we?

Re:'strue (1)

KDR_11k (778916) | more than 9 years ago | (#12879185)

Which is why you better buy an Xbox 360.

Oh, really? (4, Insightful)

drix (4602) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875726)

"The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform"

No, jackass, the sale of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform. The target just gives you an excuse to run your mouth off and get it printed by gullible editors.

Re:Oh, really? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876156)

Ouch. ZING!

16 months not a year, 'could' not 'will'. (4, Informative)

Andy_R (114137) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875742)

The BBC version of the story [bbc.co.uk] reports the same speech quite differently.

Mr Moore actually said Microsoft could reach the 10 million mark in 12 to 16 months.

Surely (1)

inkless1 (1269) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875785)

since it's from the VP of marketing, it simply will become true.

10 million in one year vs 20 million in four years (1)

LoverOfJoy (820058) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875789)

This doesn't sound too outrageous a goal to me. Last time they were a new system. The next will be a second generation system. If they really do have a whole year being the newest big thing I can see a lot of people being sucked in. How many of those who have an xbox now will NOT get the newer version? How many who didn't get the original xbox will consider the next one?

Does anyone know how many xbox systems were sold in the first year alone?

History (2, Interesting)

MBraynard (653724) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875808)

Look at this:

MS predicts 5 million for sales in first fiscal year. [com.com]

The result?

Sales were 3.9 million. [com.com]

Not too bad, but not perfect. 20% off. Still, it's better to underpromise and over-deliver than the other way around.

Taco is a tool. I posted this, then they made the story 'sub only' and it ate my post so I had to re-type it. Lesson? Type first in notepad, then paste.

Re:History (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12879707)

There is a big difference between 3.9 million and 5 million.

What world is it that you live in where a 20% discrepency is considered not too bad, and can I move my business there?

A screwdriver is a tool, you just need to copy your post from the comment window before clicking submit.

Re:History (1)

MBraynard (653724) | more than 9 years ago | (#12883136)

It's that compared to the other lies told in this industry, predicting sales a year out and being off by 20% is not something I would consider a huge issue.

Re:History (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12883469)

Who the fuck do you think you are fooling with such bullshit?

So you think no one knows all the other figures MS claimed they would ship in the first year besides your cherrypicked number? MS repeatedly had to keep downcasting their sales projection time and time again throughout the first year the xbox was on sale. And even then they still didn't manage to meet their lowered target.

What a fucking pathetic clown you are.

Re:History (1)

MBraynard (653724) | more than 9 years ago | (#12883841)

Hello AC,

That first year figure was the highest figure they issued. It was downgraded later on.

Sand in the vagina?

See what I mean? (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12875855)

I've been saying it all along. Microsoft consider themselves to be media darlings. They've dominated the commercial OS market for so long that they assume that they can just insinuate themselves into any other market, and people will listen to them. When they succeed, they trumpet their forecasts of success and always attribute it to, of all things, innovation. [Pause for laughter.] When they fail (and they DO fail quite often, more often than the typical newsmedia consumer realizes), they give the same old lines about having enough money to sustain them until they eventually win.

With this particular announcement, MS has already gotten the more naive among us to question, "OMGWTF, that's so cool, what does MS know that we don't know?!" The answer, of course, is that there are people out there who will believe everything they read and hear.

The Dreamcast? (3, Insightful)

chman (746363) | more than 9 years ago | (#12875998)

What on Earth does that have to do with the X360? Other than it coming out ahead of the competition, Sega's failures there bear no similarity to the situation Microsoft faces. Sega had already had the MegaCD, the 32 addon for the Megadrive/Genesis, and the Saturn be rejected by consumers. They had unfortunately been out of it for a while by the time the Dreamcast launched.

Microsoft has had a great deal of success with the Xbox, by some measures overtaking one of the biggest names in the industry (Nintendo) and by many more leading the pack with their online gaming service - something that many would consider to be the next Big Thing for consoles after it changed the PC gaming industry so drastically over the last decade.

All of this is of course ignoring the fact that MS just won't let this fail. The Xbox is a massive end-run to get a Microsoft device in the living room, to get their brand recognition up for people that don't go near computers, and to use as a platform for the rest of their intentions such as in IPTV. It's a Microsoft reach around so you won't notice the pounding they're going to give you, and I doubt they'll be willing to pull out early.

So to speak.

Re:The Dreamcast? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876401)

"by some measures overtaking one of the biggest names in the industry (Nintendo)"

If, of course, that measure is American, Gamecube-related sales only. The rest of your post is very much on-the-spot and well-written, and I agree completely. But it's not a good idea to help perpetuate a myth when it isn't even necessary to make your point!

Re:The Dreamcast? (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876477)

Your argument is flawed.

Microsoft may have captured second place in North America but Worldwide the XBox and Gamecube are practically tied; they lost billions of dollars to gain this position and, if earlier reports are true, are unwilling to allow the XBox 360 to loose nearly as much money as the original XBox lost them. This means that if the XBox divison is not self sustaining, or if it doesn't suddenly capture a large portion of market share, don't expect much support from their parrent company.

Online gaming, inspite of it's popularity among the PC gamer crowd, is not a very popular service among the general public. The next version of XBox live does little to change this; about all it is is XBox live that has more features that will apeal to people who already subscribe. Subscription fees and Micropayments will discourage average gamers from picking up on online gaming; lets face it, if early online multiplayer games came out on the PC and were trying to sell you that 'extra map' and only charged you $50 a year to play Online PC gaming would have never caught on.

Finally, Sony already apears to be winning the Hype war with the Phantom Menace 3; no real information about what we can expect has been released yet by simply talking to more average gamers (or overhearing them in stores and what not) you would believe that the XBox 360 is an XBox that plays games at 'High Definition' whereas the PS3 is a supercomputer that will do everything that your girlfriend is unwilling to do. If Microsoft really wants to apeal to the general (unwashed) masses they're going to have to find something better than Gamer-Cards, Micropayments, High-Definition Display, and XBox Live to talk about.

The last thing I will say is that neither Sony nor Microsoft understand that Games, not hardware or services, are what sell systems; if neither company ensures that their line-up is worth the expense of their systems they could be in for a rough ride. Microsoft seems to be betting on Rare to deliver the 'must have' titles in time for launch and, as any Nintendo fan can tell you, this may be a big mistake. Rare is not known for releasing games on time, in fact Rare is not known for releasing games within 18 months of their original estimates; also, with how long it has been since Rare has released an original game one has to wonder whether they are still up to the task of producing the system selling game. Certainly, Valve did a fantastic job with Half-Life 2 with 6 years between it and it's original, but can Rare produce a game on time that meets (or surpasses) their previous games quality?

On Rare (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876722)

Unlikely, since most of the talent left and started a different company.

http://www.frd.co.uk/ [frd.co.uk]

Granted, most of their titles have been Bond successors. BUT they have been VERY good Bond successors, and the company has been successful, timely, and their games are getting really great reviews. The Rare that Microsoft owns now is not the Rare you know!

Re:The Dreamcast? (1)

KDR_11k (778916) | more than 9 years ago | (#12879227)

Well, Perfect Dark Zero is well past 18 months after initial estimate. Also, looking at Halo 2 it wouldn't surprise me if MS applied a little extra pressure on Rare to make sure the game is ready (or at least gold) at launch. If that means fewer levels and more bugs so be it, there won't be much next-gen competition out anyway and the Perfect Dark name will carry it long enough.

Re:The Dreamcast? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12879296)

"the Perfect Dark name will carry it long enough."

Huh?

No one gives a shit about Perfect Dark.

It sold only on the coat tails of Goldeneye, and was quickly forgotten once people saw that it was an unworthy follow up.

Rare is a shell of what they used to be. Eveyrone who mattered has left the place.

Just like Bungie...

Re:The Dreamcast? (1)

KDR_11k (778916) | more than 9 years ago | (#12880031)

Quite a few people seem to be hyped for it because of the name alone. Be it the name of the game or that of Rare.

Re:The Dreamcast? (1)

Bellum Aeternus (891584) | more than 9 years ago | (#12881961)

Hence MS has "spun off" a division for XBox because they know that the "Borg", as Gates referred to MS in a Time article I read, cannot be cool. Additionally, MS has stated that the original XBox was never intended to make money. It was just to get the name and brand out into the market so that they could work on total domination with the second release.

Re:The Dreamcast? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12882576)

"Additionally, MS has stated that the original XBox was never intended to make money."

What the hell do you expect them to say?

"Boy did we get on GIANT PUBLIC ASS REAMING BY SONY with the xbox. WTF were we thinking???"

"It was just to get the name and brand out into the market so that they could work on total domination with the second release."

Total domination???

Sure, with wimpy hardware and Halo and a bunch of pc games...

Honestly guys, give the It's All Part Of The Big Master Xbox Plan crap a rest. The xbox division is basically just a bunch of dumb guys pissing away money on a product no one outside of pc gamers with disposable income wants.

Re:The Dreamcast? (1)

Luigi30 (656867) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876738)

The Saturn had a lot more sales in Japan until the PS1 came out. It was hated here because they rushed it to beat the PS1 to market and had very few very unpolished launch titles.

Not too unrealistic (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876006)

Sales of 10 million units in 12-18 months are not too unrealistic to expect; that is unless your platform is called the N-Gage. The question that is really important is how many 360s do they have to sell in 12-18 months? This question is more centered around what the minimum number of XBox 360 systems that have to be sold to consider the platform viable.

I know that more people will question the potential sales of the Revolution, but in all honesty, the XBox 360 will need to be far more successful in order to generate a follow-up system. The reason for this is that Nintendo's only buisness is making videogames (and their systems) and Nintendo is a profitable at this buisness; on the other hand Microsoft has tons of other buisnesses and is loosing a lot of money trying to establish a presence in this industry. If Microsoft continues loosing money in this generation, I suspect that they will need to steal a ton of market share in order to justify the continued losses to their shareholders.

Re:Not too unrealistic (1)

patio11 (857072) | more than 9 years ago | (#12879661)

Microsoft is sitting on piles of cash -- they can continue to justify losses which barely register as line items on their budgets as "strategic hedges" against the possibility of game consoles ever doing a functionality jump like cell phones are in the middle of right now (powerup to PDA!), which would cut into the home computing market, which ironically is ALSO a small part of their vast empire but worth a heck of a lot more than every XBox title ever sold.

Price point could make this happen. (4, Insightful)

Tink2000 (524407) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876017)

Well, if they can get the price point right, I think it's plausible.

I think if they release it for around $200-225, then it will definately be do-able.

Before you start telling me how they won't release that low, remember the hype around PSP: at first there was "no way that it would be less than $400 ..." according to the industry watchers.

If you combine this with the $60+ (and rising!) price point for newer games, I think the whole thing is plausible.

I know I'll get one. Then again, I plan on getting a PS3 as well (but only after the first gen hardware is gone).

Re:Price point could make this happen. (1)

RickPartin (892479) | more than 9 years ago | (#12878306)

You and I are among a lost race of highly intelligent beings that realize FIRST GENERATION CONSOLE HARDWARE IS GARBAGE. Welcome to the club.

Self-fulfilling Expectations (3, Interesting)

TheoB (859132) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876067)

I suspect this isn't just marketing promises: Microsoft has a fair deal of control over how many 360's are sold in the first year. If they've decided that a 10 million unit head-start on Sony's US launch is what they need to compete this generation, they can cut prices and advertise sufficiently to get 10 million consoles into homes.

Remember, this isn't a question of a market demanding a good at a certain price point: MS, just like Sony, is going to lose millions of dollars in their first year of giving away razors, one way or the other.

Re:Self-fulfilling Expectations (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877025)

Go back to playing Halo you dope.

Possible - if they are available. (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876152)

10 Million might just be doable if they can make them fast enough. I know I would have had a PS2 sooner if it were possible.

Price point (1)

SwiftX (672557) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876187)

Theres no way MS can have 3 PPC processors in a xbox 360 by the end of THIS year at under $800 They might subsitize the cost like they did the xbox, but I doubt you can get what a $3000 MAC cost for less than $800
Plus they want to make money this time around so they can't sell em for as cheap as they did before without everyone wanting to mod chip it again.

Well We'll see

Re:Price point (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876481)

It's not 3 processors, it's 3 stripped down cores on the same die. At 3.2GHz they tend to perform like a 1.5 GHz G4. That's a lot cheaper!

Sony is probably going in the right direction by designing a more efficient architecture (SPE) designed from the ground up to have small die size and be more efficient. They seem to have balanced what should be handled by the compiler and what should be handled by the chip a lot better. No surprise they have 7 of them (and with a nicely designed bus!) in rougly the area used by 2 ppc cores on the 360 (remember they still have one ppc core almost identical to the xbox ones).

The PPC cores you have in each system are nowhere near a G5. They are utter crap! The processors in the alpha 360 kits (plain old power macs rebranded, clocked at a quite low frequency) were FAR better than the final one. I really miss them!

Re:Price point (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12876667)

Videogame consoles can usually offer hardware of a similar performance level to super expensive PCs because of several reasons; the main two reasons are that, at the retail level, there is a huge markup, and the development companies take huge profits to recover their research costs. When a company produces a console they can get around both of these cost barriers because they pay for the development of the hardware and they convince retailers to make a profit off of games rather than off of hardware.

Re:Price point (2)

KirkH (148427) | more than 9 years ago | (#12880927)

You are waaaay off. Remember that they own the IP rights to the 360 CPU and GPU. They will merely be paying royalty fees to ATI and IBM this time around and can take the design and have it fabbed anywhere they like. ATI has stated that they expect $2 to $5 per Xbox 360 in paid fees from MS. The IBM deal is probably similar.

In pure silicon (and other hardware) costs, the latest word is that the 360 comes in at $375 or thereabouts, which is actually cheaper than the original Xbox. The reason? They don't have to buy parts from suppliers (Intel and nVidia last time) because they own the design for the parts themselves.

Of course, this doesn't count the R&D they've already spent, but that will be made up over the life of the console (or by 2007 if you believe Allard).

I predict a $299 price at launch. At most, $349 if they want to be in the black from day one.

Re:Price point (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12881553)

"I predict a $299 price at launch. At most, $349 if they want to be in the black from day one."

With the weak hardware in the 360, anything higher than 200-250 is going to be a death sentence. Outside of the diehard/core Halo players, no one is going to pay that much when the vastly more powerful PS3 is just a few months away with it's significantly larger and better library of games.

Re:Price point (1)

KirkH (148427) | more than 9 years ago | (#12885966)

Weak? That's funny. PS3 and the 360 will be very close in terms of real-world performance.

They'd sell a ton at $299, the typical console launch price.

Sony announced a launch in Spring 2006, but didn't say world-wide launch. It makes no sense for them to launch during that time-frame in north america. Look for a Fall 2006 launch there. Spring 2006 will be Japan only, I predict.

If I'm right, the 360 will have a year head start in NA and Europe.

Re:Price point (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12886363)

> Weak? That's funny. PS3 and the 360 will be very close in terms of real-world performance.

Oh god.

It looks like this is what the console world is going to have to go through for the next five years, xbox fans trying to spin the weaker hardware as "in the same ballpark" or "close"

Please spare us guy, the console world had it's fill over the past five years with xbox fans constantly trying to spin reality. We don't need to go through that again.

Give us a rest from the xbox BS, please. It is painful to read when you have actual dev kits sitting right under you desk.

Re:Price point (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12882311)

2 Billion lost to date on xbox enough said

A Lot Of Units... (1)

creimer (824291) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876423)

Ten million units is a lot units to be pushing out in one year. The only way they can do that is to hit a sweet price point that anyone can buy at. A $100 USD XBox 360? Nah...

So 10 years to get the Bilion gamers? (1)

aka_big_wurm (757512) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876641)

Dident they say they were going to get a bilion gamers on xbox live at E3? So it would take them 10 years to do that, lol.

Re:So 10 years to get the Bilion gamers? (1)

LoverOfJoy (820058) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876706)

Naw, it'll probably only take 3 years until people figure out how to get PS3's on xbox live.

Re:So 10 years to get the Bilion gamers? (1)

Keeper (56691) | more than 9 years ago | (#12876731)

No, they said that the potential market of gamers they could tap into was a billion.

Pass me the Longhorn pipe. (5, Funny)

xanderwilson (662093) | more than 9 years ago | (#12877036)

Guy #1: "Man, this Xbox we're working on is gonna be awesome."

Guy #2: "I know. We're gonna sell like a million units."

Guy #1: "No, way, man. We're gonna sell like ten million."

Guy #2: "Dude, that's awesome. We should tell people."

Guy #1: "Heh. You said units."

They Won't Sell Themselves (1)

Benedick (737361) | more than 9 years ago | (#12877138)

People (normal non-fanboy people) don't buy consoles for the console. They buy them for the games. If MS wants to sell 10M 360's in a year, they had better be standing on Bugie's throat for Halo 3...

Re:They Won't Sell Themselves (1)

DeepCerulean (741098) | more than 9 years ago | (#12883836)

Microsoft owns Bungie you insensitive clod! No way Halo 3 doesn't come out precisely the day PS3 does...

The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12877952)

Or as people are calling it, the Dreamcast 360.

Under pressure to cut the enormous losses the Home Entertainment division has racked up over the past four years or so, MS was forced to kill off bleeding like mad xbox early in it's life and rush to get something out the door fast and cheap.

This is bad if you are a console developer. In the console market you look for a stable development environment and milk it for all it's worth. Having a manufacturer come right out and essentially kill off the platform early is not something developers look kindly on. It isn't something that will kill support for a console, but it will be a significant negative factor on future support plans for console manufacturer.

With the mandate to reduce losses and get something out there quickly to replace the EOLed xbox, MS wasn't left with many options. The x86 chips were out the running compared to PPC. Too weak, too hot, etc. Really all that was left is seeing what IBM could slap together quickly. And the result was the weak 360 cpu. Despite the fawning over the high clock speed, the three inorder cores will be clobbered by early next year's desktop chips. The large number of xbox owners who bought the first xbox because they wanted the most powerful system aren't going to want to downgrade to something so realtively weak compared to desktops and Sony's soon to be released PS3.

The final nail in the coffin for the 360 is that after four years MS really has no must have exclusives other than Halo. And MS has failed to acquire any new must have IP. In other words, if you didn't buy an xbox before there is going to be no reason to buy a new xbox.

MS is going to be lucky to hold on to half of their current xbox owners. MS has been in full scale PR push for the next xbox and they seem to have done more damage than if they had just kept their mouths shut. The damage just the MTV segment did is staggering.

In the end, all the talk about MS and their billions is no different than the last time they were about to launch a console.

In reality you have a bunch of mostly pc developers rushing to get product out the door for hardware that is marginally faster than today's desktop systems. Not a recipe for success in the console market.

Console wars are won and lost long before hardware hits retail shelves. Long before all the fans are still talking about 'launch strategies' and other such sillyness.

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12878243)

I think what you're saying is biased, a little harsh, and not entirely accurate; the biggest problem is that you're only seeing one side of the situation.

Microsoft is trying to move to the next generation in order to produce a platform that is self sustaining; this is because they're trying to stop the bleeding of money from their entertainment division. For the most part this decision was made pretty early on in the XBox's life cycle and they approached ATI and IBM to produce their processors; their hardware wasn't produced in a rapid or haphazard manner. The hardware isn't the problem at all; much like the XBox, PS2 and Gamecube, when the hardware is announced it seems so impressive (Oh my god, they put a 733 MHZ Celeron into the XBox!!! That's amazing, that processor alone would cost you $250!!!) but rapidly becomes less than cutting edge; this isn't that big of a problem for game performance because you're not running a big clunky OS on any of the consoles.

The part of your post I think you're bang on about is Microsoft is loosing the PR war. Microsoft has been selling 'features' of the XBox 360 with little regard for the So-What factor.

The XBox 360 has HDTV! SO What?
The XBox 360 has Micropayments! SO What? ...

This produces an image in the mind of the average person of a system that only apeals to the geekiest people in the world (not an image to associat yourself with for highly image conscience people); and at the same time doesn't actually apeal to the geekiest people in the world (most geeks I know are more interested in the possibility of playing Super Mario 3 again). This is problematic because if Sony can label itself as 'Cool', Nintendo can label the Revolution as 'inovative yet retro', and Microsoft is left with 'owned by geeky virgins who live with their parrents' which systems do you think are going to be popular to say that you own?

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12878528)

Sorry, you don't know what you're talking about.

The 360 hardware was started long after the PS3 hardware was started being designed and worked on. And the 360 is supposed to be on the store shelves ~6 months before the PS3 and Revo.

Hardware is major problem for MS. A large portion of their xbox installed base bought an xbox because of it's marketed power - regardless of the fact that was nothing more than hype.

The 'let's rename our devkit'/XNA stuff should be a clear indication of just how desperate MS is over their hardware problem.

Spinning weak hardware is good enough to an installed base that is use to claiming their system is the most powerful is a disaster waiting to happen for MS. And they know it.

There is a good chance MS will pull the plug on the 360 in the next couple of months. They haven't spent the big money of stocking up on shipping hardware yet. At worst it would be a brief and ugly PR hit. The days of 'damn the losses' are over at MS, and unless the bean counters see some sign of life in the 360 project soon it's in line for the axe. MS has been cutting a billion+ a quater for the past year to hit the street numbers. People can talk all they want about Big Plans and other pie in the sky talk, but right now the Home Entertainment division is a big fat target for cutting. The are millions and millions of shares still waiting to be unloaded by the MS insiders before the stock price sinks into the teens. Another multi-billion dollar marketplace fiasco like the first xbox is something no one who matters at MS is in any mood for.

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (1)

KDR_11k (778916) | more than 9 years ago | (#12880201)

They've spent too much on building up an image with the XB1 to abandon the X360 before it's released. I'd expect them to keep it going for at least two years (they estimate that they'll make a profit in 2007, they won't cut it earlier). They know it's not going to make money immediately and they'll try to offset at least some of the losses. Plus I'm not too sure how the law would like it if MS cancelled a product so many companies are investing money into (exclusive games anyone?). No, wait until 2007, when the PS3 and Revolution will hit full force, then you'll see MS decide on the future of the Home Entertainment Division (i.e. they might be the first against the wall when the Revolution comes).

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (1)

Kryptkrwlr_XTC (521685) | more than 9 years ago | (#12882205)

What planet do you live on? The PPC chip was in full scale production long before IBM Toshiba and Sony started the Cell development process. The Xbox 360 has three OPTIMIZED PPC chips. Optimizing an architecture to a specific set of specifications is easy compared to developing an entirely new architecture. Also, the costs Sony has incurred while in the process of developing the new architecture will be seen in the differing initial price points (PS3 $465USD vs XBox360 $299-325USD as stated in the gaming media by each companies representatives). In essence, your post is FUD

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12882503)

God I wish every fucking xbox fanboy would just fucking die.

PS3/Cell development started IMMEDIATELY after the PS2 hardware was finalized you dope. The PS3 hardware has been in design and production almost twice as long the slapped together whatever we have laying around at IBM 360 CPU.

And finally dumbshit, the PS3 will not be priced at 465.

Please, do the world a favor, just fucking kill yourself, now. The world is sick of the MS hype and xbox fanboy lies.

Re:The Sad Reality Of MS And The 360 (1)

Kryptkrwlr_XTC (521685) | more than 9 years ago | (#12884016)

Your just angry because you know its true you fucking asshat. Riddle me this shit for brains; how long has Apple been using the PPC chip? Definitely BEFORE the PS2 came out. The XBox360 uses the PPC chipset, it is only modified to a specific hardware specification (not unlike the Mac). The Cell architecture is completely different from the PPC architecture. Catch a clue, and don't talk shit about stuff you have NO UNDERSTANDING ABOUT!

Dream while you can - Dreamcast 2 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12879647)

3DO sold more than Xbox in Japan.

No problem... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 9 years ago | (#12880656)

10 million Xbox2 by the end of year? No problem!
Start paying all employees in Xbox2s instead of money...

10M to who...? (1)

oahazmatt (868057) | more than 9 years ago | (#12886080)

What does Microsoft define as a "sale"?

The retailers place purchase orders. Ten million confirmed purchase orders does not necessarily mean ten million units will be sold to a consumer.

And if they define it as ten million units sold to a consumer... I might not hold my breath on that one.

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