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Vista Launch Good for Desktop Linux?

Zonk posted about 9 years ago | from the could-be dept.

Windows 535

Sensible Clod writes "XYZ Computing has an article hypothesizing that the arrival of Windows Vista may be a big opportunity for Linux to make headway on the desktop. Massive feature cutbacks for Vista as well as huge hardware requirements are cited as major factors. From the article: 'As the time gets closer and closer to the public debut of Vista the operating system seems to be constantly losing the luster which was associated with Longhorn...Whether it's the lack of a new file system or the Monad scripting shell, the absence of innovation in this operating system is giving it a black eye'. The article then shows the need for action to be taken to get Linux onto the computers in stores (display models!), and pinpoints a few important improvements Linux distros in general need to make. Very interesting read, and timely."

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fp (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414590)

fp

Re:fp (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414594)

hasta la vista

Re:fp (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414797)

as well as huge hardware requirements

*cough* GNOME, KDE *cough*

How to tell if you are a linux fanatic. (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414596)

AKA a nazi fanatic loser.

1. You rejuvenate and dance when you hear a windows flaw exposed, but you conveniently ignore the thousands of security flaws exposed in linux.

2. You yell loudly TROLL! at any person's post or at any person you see posting facts that you do not want to hear about your oh so cool linux.

3. You know it's a classic case of penis envy, you don't have all the support, software and hardware available for linux and you have to let that anger out somewhere, but you don't have the brains to admit it.

4. You hate windows, hate Microsoft, but race to emulate windows, have programs to run office from within linux, and spend a $300 on a Windows emulator, only Windows fools.

5. You cannot admit that you don't have professional usage of Linux outside server markets.

6. You cannot admit that most of the joe user out there when told that there is linux will respond, what is that?

7. You cannot admit that there is no professional printing capabilities in linux.

8. You cannot admit that you are a masochist (otherwise why would someone spend hours playing with scripts,
and recompiling programs that are available for Windows?)

9. You cannot admit that there is no professional desktop publishing done on Linux.

10. You cannot admit that no one in their right mind would do professional video editing in Linux.

11. You cannot admit that linux sucks when it comes for gaming/home entertainment or education.

12. You have problems in understanding Windows, and you will blame your own incompetence on Microsoft.

13. You have problems in pointing a clicking, but have no problems in wading through cryptic scripts written by lunatics.

14. Nothing will get past that shit that fills your head, you will not admit to any facts.

15. You can't admit that naming of linux components, packages, and others are weird and fits profiles of troubled teenagers. gentoo, lgx, rpm ....

16. You feel angered because you were left out by microsoft's Media technologies, they support Mac, Sun sparc, but not linux.

17. You feel inferior deep inside but unable to admit it, you don't have a database as easy and powerful as Access.

18. You cannot tell that not a single office package outside Microsoft's is worth looking at or bothering with.

19. You don't know that your CD recorder software sucks.

20. You don't have DVD-RAM, DVD-R, DVD-RW support in your pathetic OS.

21. While the rest of the world moves on, you're stuck in a stone age technology that needs third party software to boot into GUI.

22. You act out of prejudice, you kill file domains and users of specific news readers while you ignore the bullshit that your fellow linux losers post.

23. You don't know commercial support in Linux is almost non existent.

24. You miss the fact that companies are leaving linux because of the chaos, and the cheap linux losers who are unwilling to pay and support hard work, Corel, gaming companies,...etc.

25. You are unaware that linux has no terminal services (there is a lame one that no one uses), and commercial support for it is not happening.

26. You are unaware that setting up servers on Windows takes couple of minutes while on linux, good luck playing with configuration scripts.

27. You cannot admit that support for USB on linux is laughable at best.

28. You think that Linux is better because slashdot told you so.

29. You spend countless hours flaming people because they post their opinions about your oh so cool linux and your attitude, instead of researching things for yourself and understanding fact in order not to look this stupid.

30. You think that anyone who uses linux has a clue.

31. You think that linux cannot crash.

32. You think that everyone is interested in your conspiracy theories about Microsoft (or should i say M$ in order for you, teenagers to understand?), and how they destroyed linux, ...etc.

33. You keep ignoring the fact that thousands of linux servers get hacked every year, but it takes one Windows server hacked to get you and your fellow linux idiots to dance and celebrate.

Re:How to tell if you are...a miracle worker? (2, Funny)

thc69 (98798) | about 9 years ago | (#13414658)

1. You rejuvenate and dance when you hear a windows flaw exposed
If that was possible and true, then the large demographic of people worried about their age would be begging for each version of Windows to be more insecure than the last...

negligible (5, Insightful)

silverkniveshotmail. (713965) | about 9 years ago | (#13414600)

Vista is not going to decrease the amount of people purchasing new computers with whatever current version of windows is pre-loaded. This is the majority of windows purchases. As for those who are going to be holding onto their current computers and using them most of them will probably not upgrade to the newest (most expensive) operating system available and will probably stick with windows xp or 2000 until they get a new computer that does come with vista.
The same people who bought windows XP at full retail will probably go ahead and buy Vista at full retail while most of us that use linux now will just keep using linux whether or not some new version of windows comes along.
I think the whole impact will be negligible.

Almost negligible (5, Informative)

trezor (555230) | about 9 years ago | (#13414624)

Vista will implement DRM deep into the OS and when apps start "taking advantage" of that, you will notice that it's not negligible any more.

My reason for staying away from Vosta, hardware requirements aside, is DRM and DRM only. Because there are a few neat features under the hood I'd really like to have. For instance the vector-graphics GPU-accelerated desktop.

Re:Almost negligible (1)

silverkniveshotmail. (713965) | about 9 years ago | (#13414639)

yes, i'm with you. But that doesn't make us average users. And if you or I were to buy a dell (hypothetical, i dont' care if you build your computers) and slap win2k or winxp on it microsoft doesn't know, and gets the same money. People like you and i are going to make very little difference in the amount of copies ms sells of vista

Re:Almost negligible (5, Insightful)

jaiyen (821972) | about 9 years ago | (#13414769)

Linux advocates - "No DRM in Linux!"

Legally downloaded audio/video file disclaimer - "Needs DRM compatible PC"

Windows Vista box sticker - "Fully DRM compatible!"

To an average non-technical user who just wants their music and video files to play, isn't this going to make the DRM look like an additional feature that Windows has and Linux lacks? Sadly lacking DRM might end up turning people away from Linux rather than towards it :(

Re:Almost negligible (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414822)

So get a Mac. Its desktop's been accelerated for a couple of revisions.

Re:negligible (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414707)

I don't think going for the minimal amount of sales is acceptable.
They will sell copies, sure, but not the earth-shattering amount that they want or need. To date, Vista seems like it will be Microsoft's most large scale expensive failure, if not for the bad (p)reviews alone it has already received.

Re:negligible (1)

silverkniveshotmail. (713965) | about 9 years ago | (#13414732)

when you're a monopoly (or at least really close) it's hard to fail.

Re:negligible (1)

Ucklak (755284) | about 9 years ago | (#13414841)

Exactly.

Windows ME sold only because it was the ONLY consumer OS available at the time.
There was only a short period of time that a few OEM's would give you a choice between Win98 and ME but other than that, Fry's, Best Buy, Circuit City, etc... only had Windows ME on new computers.

Professional Desktops had a better choice but most small business offices would run Windows 98 which was a professional choice (at least with Compaqs)

This is what amazes me (5, Insightful)

Saven Marek (739395) | about 9 years ago | (#13414601)

Out of all the features meant to be in vista some since 1992, almost all of them have been dropped. Microsoft a large gigantic corporation couldn't get them in their system working.

What's funny is that every one of those features is available today in a Linux distro near you. Yet still nobody listens and switches to linux in droves, but many wait for vista

I think sometimes everyone is a sheep

Re:This is what amazes me (5, Funny)

Adelbert (873575) | about 9 years ago | (#13414653)

I think sometimes everyone is a sheep

If that's what you think, then so do I!

Re:This is what amazes me (1, Insightful)

ApoJooce (894988) | about 9 years ago | (#13414663)

I think you don't quite know what you're talking about. Have you ever seen the application "Google Earth"? Well, imagine creating an application with nice 3D animation like that is a NO BRAINER. That's what Avalon + the new developer tools + .NET on Windows Vista will let you do, easier than a fart. Linux fan boys, enjoy your GCC.

Re:This is what amazes me (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414725)

No, enjoy your AIDS

Re:This is what amazes me (1)

lolocaust (871165) | about 9 years ago | (#13414768)

gb2 /b/

Re:This is what amazes me (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414665)

Your comments are a tad over zealous.

I've been using linux as a way to learn how the command line works, I didn't enjoy the days or even weeks it took me to get my peripherals/hardware to work. I'd honestly rather go for a walk then get my cd's to burn.

I want to be a programmer, so I'm learning about things I think/have been told they do. I don't want to just re-iterate all of the old arguments of why linux wont make it to the desktop just yet. But here is what I know from reading posts here (in short form):

1) Driver support. No support => few users => no support
2) Lack of games
3) Office. Everyone wants you to send documents in word. Even when I'd never used linux, I always sent ascii or pdf files aswell.

My personal experiences.

1) I love the ideology behind GNU. I'd never even really thought about such ideas existing (outside of Star Trek). I hate the fact that closed source is so..well closed. MS can steer the IT word any way THEY want. Now that can't be inthe interests of the user.

Re:This is what amazes me (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414756)

"What's funny is that every one of those features is available today in a Linux distro near you." - by Saven Marek (739395) on Saturday August 27, @07:58AM

Kind of like how threaduse was copied to kernel mode by Linux folks where it was always there in NT-based Os'?

(OR, kind of like how process scheduling methods used in Linux now tend to mimic NT-based OS' use of completion ports??)

The KDE desktop (as much as I like it and the Linux 2.6x OS core now, which I respect also) is A LOT like that of the many years present Win9x/ME &/or Win2000/XP/Server 2003 desktop shell as well!

Need I go on???

WinFS is nothing new really - IBM has been doing that with DB/2 based filesystem engines on their zOS & before it on As/400's OS400 for a years now...

& MONAD?

Well, Windows Scripting Host in combination with batchfiles are excellent as is, & there are LOADS of commandline add-on freeware tools as well to extend it even moreso (see places like jsiinc.com & search freeware there, as that place caters to the crowd that actually uses scripts: Network administrators/techs/engineers)...

Worst comes to worst? You build a console mode app to do what it is you need to do... VERY easy to build & create those with tools like Borland Delphi for example, mind you! I do it all the time...

I don't know what they plan to add to MONAD, but most likely something to match featuresets presetn in UNIX commandlines shells... esoteric ones.

Truly, on MONAD? Unless someone can show or tell me more directly??

I cannot see how it is going to be "world's better" than the current system scripting tools available to Windows users, which MOST of them do not ever really need!

They want & use prebuilt GUI programs, & here?

Here is where Windows "wins", as they have the greatest wealth of them here period (vs. all of the other OS' combined imo!)

APK

P.S.=> Sure, Ms did something that was copied from Linux too - that's moving IIS' http.sys into kernel mode/RPL0/Ring 0 operation, since it is faster for server-side webpage data caching... this whole field? Imitate & IMPROVE UPON and imo? Very little original thought exists out there anymore in it @ this point in time... apk

Re:This is what amazes me (1)

aussie_a (778472) | about 9 years ago | (#13414770)

What's funny is that every one of those features is available today in a Linux distro near you. Yet still nobody listens and switches to linux in droves, but many wait for vista

I think sometimes everyone is a sheep


You're welcome to think what you want, but it doesn't make it true. I've tried to install Linux 3 times, each time I failed (either with the installation itself or setting up the network). Linux for the non-geek is not easy, Windows is.

Re:This is what amazes me (1)

6031769 (829845) | about 9 years ago | (#13414829)

I've tried to install Linux 3 times, each time I failed (either with the installation itself or setting up the network).

Installation takes very little time - even if you don't know what you're doing you can have Linux up and running in a couple of hours. So, do a couple of hours work installing Linux and then have a breeze for the next 12 months, or have a breeze installing Windows and then spend 12 months with the world of pain that is Windows use.

Choose whichever you want.

People don't care (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414606)

People don't care about Monad or new file systems - they want nice GUIs with RSS integrated - IE with tabs etc... Vista is everything the average user wants.

As for hardware requirements - most people will get vista with their shiny new hardware from dell or whatever. It will meet the requirements and look great with lots of eye-candy.

Linux doesn't just need to be better than Vista - it needs to be MUCH better to get an average user to switch.

Re:People don't care (1)

aussie_a (778472) | about 9 years ago | (#13414778)

People don't care about Monad or new file systems - they want nice GUIs with RSS integrated - IE with tabs etc...

Not really correct for you're average "get a computer for the kids" person. Most people won't a computer that will work with most of the software that is available on the market. Windows provides that for them. If it was a pretty computer, then Macs would be the dominant player.

Re:People don't care (1)

twms2h (473383) | about 9 years ago | (#13414827)

Linux doesn't just need to be better than Vista - it needs to be MUCH better to get an average user to switch.
Not even that will get the average user to switch. Linux must offer something to him personally that he wants and doesn't get from Windows. Otherwise, he just doesn't care.

Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (5, Funny)

Spackler (223562) | about 9 years ago | (#13414608)

This story was posted in 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2003. It is a dupe. Nothing to see here.

Re:Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414648)

This comment was posted in 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2005. It is a dupe. Nothing to see here.

Re:Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414657)

This reply was posted in 2000, 2003 and 2005. It is a dupe. Nothing to see here.

Re:Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414686)

This reply was posted in 2003 and 2005. It is a dupe. Nothing to see here.

Re:Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414705)

This reply has never been posted before. Check that out!

Re:Dupe!! It's a DUPE! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414748)

No dupe dude, Vista comes out in 2006; nobody's said 2006 will be the year of the Linux desktop... yet!

2005 is the year of Linux on the Desktop! (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414610)

Just like 2004/3/2/1 was...

I started (or attempted to start) using Linux a few years back when I started university, just out of plain curiosity. My buddy and I downloaded the ISO images of Red Hat Linux 8.0, and from that point forward, it all went to shit.

I figured it would be no problem, I used Sun's Solaris quite a bit so I understood the shell at least. Install went well, even though I was confused why I needed seven million partitions which I had to allocate manually and to have a root password since it was a single user machine. After my install, I restarted my machine, saw a bunch of ugly crap being spewed to the screen, and before you knew it, X Windows loaded up and I was in Linux. "Ooh, this looks neat, just like Windows. Let's see if I can surf the web!"

This is the point where I discovered the 'magic' of Linux. It couldn't find a driver for a simple ethernet card. So I got onto another computer running Windows, and found some type of driver for it. All right, I'll just burn it to a cd, pop it onto the Linux machine, and we're good to go. I started looking around for the CD ROM icon...where was it? Apparently I had to mount it manually, luckily I know UNIX. Then it asks me for root password. Okay, so I enter it. Then I can see the CD ROM, great. Oh look, the driver is in the form of source code, I have to compile it. So I tried to compile it with the configure script that came along. Oh wait, I need some !@#$ing stupid C library. All right, so I download that as well in the form of a RPM, which luckily worked, and then I was able to compile the driver.

Okay now what? According to the instructions, I had to recompile the kernel making the driver a part of it. 'Recompile the kernel?' I thought, 'What kind of sick operating system makes you recompile its kernel...' Apparently I didn't know what kind of twisted people designed Linux. Oh wait, it wants the stupid root password again...good God. So after about 5 hours, I had Internet...given that I knew how to use a UNIX machine. Four days later I tried installing something else, it asked me for the same stupid C library but version 1.2.3.4.5 instead of the version I had...God forbid...1.2.3.4.4 (oh what a fool I was for not updating every 10 minutes!) Within an hour, my drive was formatted (twice out of spite) and running Windows XP.

A few months back I was inspired again to run Linux. If you read the tech news, there's no doubt about it, it's taking over the server market. A Linux sys admin will make 20 grand more than a Windows sys admin (Makes you wonder if 20 grand is worth eventual suicide), so I felt I should pick it up. Of course now I was more prepared, I've read books, admin guides, worked as a student UNIX operator, 3 years under my belt as a computer science student, two internships, and had studied the Linux kernel in depth.

I decided I would try a whole bunch of distributions, I tried Red Hat 9, Fedora Core 2, SuSe 9.1, Debian, and Mandrake 10. All special in there own little way...like retarded children. As soon as SuSe loaded up, I was like..."nice nice, very sleek...", then a hissing came out my left speaker that wouldn't go away. Nice autodetection for the sound driver. Bye bye SuSe. All right, let's try Red Hat 9...oh look Red Hat won't give any more automatic updates because now that it has a little bit of money...!@#$ open source, let's become the next Microsoft! Oh Debian and Mandrake, just plain ugly and slow.

What about Fedora Core, Red Hat's latest method of getting code for free rather than having to pay programmers in India $0.85 an hour to do it. Why pay someone when you can have some idiot from GNU or some grad student do it for free, then sell it for 400 bucks a pop. It was surprising though that that experimental piece of crap worked better than all the other distributions, even though its autoupdate some how corrupted my kernel and I had to overwrite it.

But what I find most stupid is the philosophy behind it. Why make something so complex for free? I'm an excellent software engineer, good software is hard to make, it's beyond art, takes incredible amounts of education, hardwork and talent, and it should be kept proprietary and one should be paid to make it. I shouldn't have to run around asking for donations and shouldn't have to live in my mom's basement to get by.

Go to the GNU assholes' site, their feeling is that it should be my 'moral obligation' to code for free and give that code away as well. Those guys don't care about the rest of us, they have jobs, they're being paid by the government to design their half ass compilers and shitty OS. Some of us aren't shady recluses with no other goals in life other than to understand every little thing about computers. After our 8-5 day, we want to live our lives...and giving away software for free is not helping anybody except big corporations who save even more money.

Re:2005 is the year of Linux on the Desktop! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414640)

RTFM Asshat!

Re:2005 is the year of Linux on the Desktop! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414740)

tl:dr

Re:2005 is the year of Linux on the Desktop! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414754)

I'm not going to dispute the problems you had, linux's been a PITA for me sometimes as well, but it does seem you don't understand the philosophy behind GNU. It's not just free labour for big companies, theres more to it like the sharing of code with the entire community.

Re:2005 is the year of Linux on the Desktop! (2, Interesting)

makomk (752139) | about 9 years ago | (#13414792)

Recompile the kernel to install a driver? Not likely. Most Linux drivers distributed outside the kernel are set up with a Makefile that builds a kernel module for just that driver. All you have to do is "./configure && make && su -c 'make install'", and then possibly insert the module. Unless you're using some incredibly screwy custom-built kernel, you shouldn't even need to reboot, let alone recompile the kernel. (You do, however, need the kernel source installed.)

I call BS. Even under Mandrake Linux, building and using a driver for my wireless card (ndiswrapper) was easy. Incidentally, is there any distro that doesn't automatically create desktop icons for CD-ROMs these days? Apart from Gentoo, though even that probably would if I set it up right...

Admittedly, I don't entirely trust the commercial distros not to try and extract mucho cash (which is part of the reason I use Gentoo), but still.

Finally! (5, Insightful)

Mensa Babe (675349) | about 9 years ago | (#13414612)

XYZ Computing has an article hypothesizing that the arrival of Windows Vista may be a big opportunity for Linux to make headway on the desktop.

A decade ago it was Windows 95 that was going to be a big opportunity for Linux to make headway on the desktop, then it was Windows 98, 2000, XP, the DRM in Media Player, Internet Explorer, the license of MS SQL Server, the flaws in ASP security model, the nonsense of .NET hysteria, the C#... Meanwhile, GNU/Linux is already on my desktop and I couldn't really care less what Micro$oft does. I just use it because it is the best tool for my job. Period.

Re:Finally! (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414641)

In 1995, only hardcore hackers used Linux on the desktop. The situation is hardly comparable with today. On the other hand, when XP hit the market, Linux already had KDE2 and so it could be considered "usable for normal users" about as much as today.

Re:Finally! (1)

PocketPick (798123) | about 9 years ago | (#13414694)

A decade ago it was Windows 95 that was going to be a big opportunity for Linux to make headway on the desktop

I'm not sure I agree with that. Back in '95, Gnome and KDE were only a concept (they would come along in '97). There were a few patchwork desktops and perhaps IceWM and TWM, but if you counted those as a threat to Microsoft's 95 OS envioronment, you're wrong. Quite frankly, I think the people working on Linux back then were just worried about increasing the in-roads they could get in the more academic and high-end server markets.

Lack of features won't make a difference... (3, Insightful)

ThogScully (589935) | about 9 years ago | (#13414613)

XP offered very little beyond Windows 2000 with a new skinning engine, especially as far as most people were concerned. So long as Longhorn looks a little prettier and the pressure eventually is pushed to corporations/people to upgrade for compatibility, people will move to it.

Linux will find a way to people's desktops eventually, when it's more ready and the market in general is more ready to support it. Linux won't make inroads because of anything Microsoft does, for better or worse.
-N

Re:Lack of features won't make a difference... (1)

munrom (853142) | about 9 years ago | (#13414667)

XP had alot over 2000 in terms of Group policies, there was a hell of alot more you could with with a 2k3/xp setup than a 2kserver/2kpro setup. For end user XP is just 2000 with a skinning engine, but for anyone using a windows domain there was alot of features added, which really should have been in 2000 anyway but hey.

Re:Lack of features won't make a difference... (1)

Gonoff (88518) | about 9 years ago | (#13414755)

It also had the decent (for windows) networkability taken out of it for home users and a whole raft of new holes put in.

Even many large MS sites wait a year or so before large deployemnts of the latest offerings. Yo have a window there. The trouble is, many or most of these decisions are not taken by the people who have to pick up the pieces - the IT department.

Re:Lack of features won't make a difference... (4, Interesting)

cnettel (836611) | about 9 years ago | (#13414683)

The fascinating story is also that a lot of stuff was cut back from Windows 2000. In beta 2, Office files with different data streams could actually be persisted to disk as several NTFS streams in one file, with the intent to expand this. Indexing was also implemented and at some point it was expected to be much better than the current service.

Still, Windows 2000 was a huge step over NT4. And, still, XP improved several APIs, both in kernel and user mode. Auto-growing stacks was introduced (news in the Windows world), which of course can simplify development of recursive stuff in some scenarios. It's not much, and if you want to keep compatible with 2000, it's irrelevant, but they continued tweaking.

Vista can still, from what I know, be a huge enough step to warrant a 6.0 version number. It won't be a "new" product, but (just about) nobody ever said it would. If NT4 => 2000 was an upgrade worth mentioning, I would think that this will be, too.

(And, hey, on a laptop/TFT desktop, Cleartype is enough for me to want XP if I run Windows)

Re:Lack of features won't make a difference... (1)

Propagandhi (570791) | about 9 years ago | (#13414692)

"Linux won't make inroads because of anything Microsoft does, for better or worse."

I'd say that's a bit of an overstatement. There's a limit to what consumer's will take, and as computer purchases become more transparent (IE when people realize they're actually paying $100+ for Windows and MS's other software) I think the door will open for Linux.

Conversely MS could start charging a reasonable amount of money for their software and offering more open dev support and essentially zap up any need for an alternative.

Re:Lack of features won't make a difference... (1)

Knuckles (8964) | about 9 years ago | (#13414779)

And XP uptake was sloooow, esp. in businesses

On notebooks, WIndows wins. (1)

Dystopian Rebel (714995) | about 9 years ago | (#13414785)

Many tech people are talking about the increase in notebook sales.

We have to admit, Windows XP is very much superior to Linux and *BSD on notebooks for ease of use of Infrared, PCMCIA stuff, Bluetooth and USB. There's no reason to think that Windows Vista will diminish the usability of this hardware.

I love my FreeBSD and Ubuntu, but XP is on my notebook. Maybe Vista will be too one day, if there is a compelling reason for me to try it... and the hardware can run it. ;o)

*hmpf* if only that was true (4, Insightful)

tobi-wan-kenobi (797654) | about 9 years ago | (#13414614)

how many people earnestly think it is about usability and security that most people choose their software?
i agree, some of the more sophisticated desktop users might be willing to switch, but much more powerful forces for not switching are: a lot of people don't like serious changes. they know windows (though it might suck), not necessarily the OS, but the brand, so they stick with it.
a lot of companies are either bound by contracts or - more importantly - by internal applications that are broken enough only to work with windows (in that case, to be more specific, mostly word, excel and access).
these are, i think, compelling reasons why a large percentage - mark, percentage, not single individuals - will not want to switch to linux because of what the article states.

I'm not sure why you would think that (5, Interesting)

ReformedExCon (897248) | about 9 years ago | (#13414615)

Unless you mean to say that the lower new feature count will make it easier to clone those features into the Linux GUIs. Or maybe you mean that people who upgrade to new PCs will then have their older PCs available to load Linux on. I'm not sure how the next release of Windows will help Linux in the least.

People buy Microsoft because that's what they expect when they buy a computer. Some people think they want more, so they buy a Mac. Other people are happy with Linux, and they don't even have to spend a dime to get the OS software.

When Microsoft releases their next version, I don't think it will have the massive uptake that Windows 95 did, or even Windows 2000 did. Even Windows XP had a slower takeup than the real quantum leaps in Windows history (Win95, Win2K). People are just satisfied with what they've got.

How are you going to convince satisfied people to run Linux? It doesn't really offer them anything that they don't already have or need. If it were that important to them, they would be running it already.

So why would Windows Vista help Linux?

Lack of innovation in this OS.. (3, Interesting)

Richard_at_work (517087) | about 9 years ago | (#13414616)

Well, I recently took a good long look at all three desktop operating systems for a personal shootout, and I must say that out of Windows XP, Ubuntu Linux with KDE or Gnome, and OSX Tiger, OSX was the only one that stood out from the crowd as being anywhere near innovative or 'new'. I didnt see anything in Linux that I havent enjoyed using elsewhere for years, although its security strengths are a positive, Windows had the games plus point, but its much of a muchness desktop wise, but OSX takes integration and ease of use to a new level, especially for developers.

What am I trying to say? Well, before you complain about Vista not being 'innovative', take a look at the alternatives first, they arent much different in many aspects.

What desktop am I posting this from? OSX of course!

For example (1)

Knome_fan (898727) | about 9 years ago | (#13414734)

Could you provide us some examples of the innovations in OSX?
Thanks.

Re:For example (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414802)

Sure, here you go: http://www.apple.com/macosx/ [apple.com] -- Slow Down Cowboyneal! Slashdot requires you to wait longer between hitting 'reply' and submitting a comment. It's been 16 seconds since you hit 'reply'. Chances are, you're behind a firewall or proxy, or clicked the Back button to accidentally reuse a form. Please try again. If the problem persists, and all other options have been tried, contact the site administrator.

Re:For example (2, Informative)

ta ma de (851887) | about 9 years ago | (#13414823)

Quartz graphics. Everything displayed in OSX is a pdf. Every application can save as pdf ... all without any additional payements to adobe. Take a screen shot ... pdf. From the web browser ... print pdf. No matter which application is being used, you can be confident that you can send an electronic document without concern for platform.

Linux' big chance (4, Interesting)

treff89 (874098) | about 9 years ago | (#13414617)

I completely agree. Vista, which (as Longhorn in its initial announcement stages) looked actually quite good, has now become what is basically XP SP3. Features that would have made it worthwhile, such as WinFS, have all been stripped from the final product: while Linux continues to accelerate ahead in terms of stability, compatibility and features. The fact that it is becoming easier to use, more recognised and therefore attracts more coders, also is a great plus for Linux and means that it is increasing in value exponentially. As well, Vista's crazy system requirements are in stark contrast to those of many Linux distributions, despite the fact that these distributions have most if not all of Vista's featurs (and many more on top. And plus - the price difference.

Re:Linux' big chance (4, Insightful)

antic (29198) | about 9 years ago | (#13414721)


But isn't XP already ahead of the Linux desktop options anyway? You have to surpass the previous iteration of MS offerings before you snatch an "opportunity" with their successor.

And since when did more than 0.5% of the PC-using population ever really pay much attention to the left-out features (filesystem changes, etc).

People who were considering Vista for their current underpowered machine would go with XP or 2000 before trying Linux, I suspect.

I think the exact opposite (1, Interesting)

Frash (910649) | about 9 years ago | (#13414622)

Microsoft has enough money to "perfectionize" Windows. Just look at the GUI investments they did. Almost EVERY Linux GUI is copying the Windows GUI and layout. If the Linux community will not show some more innovation I am sure Linux will be slaughtered. People will buy new PCs, it's getting as hyped as the cell phone hype. The online hardwareshops have never been so busy.

Re:I think the exact opposite (1)

Adelbert (873575) | about 9 years ago | (#13414675)

Its interesting that you cite the GUI as a form of innovation. My first reaction was "yeah, but, like, look under the cover. Linux is way more innovative."

However, the customers that the article is talking about doesn't care about how effective pipes and sockets are in a CLI. They want their OS to look good and guide them by the hand when they try to do a task (think Clippy). I think the FOSS community could learn a lot from this approach. So long as they don't sacrifice performance where it really is important.

Re:I think the exact opposite (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414838)

you cite Linux desktop comparrison to windows.

Which ones? GNOME, KDE?

How many desktops does Windows have? One

YOu want something innovating and completely new check out e17!!!!!

you do not know what you are talking about or have never used Linux and have just read the hype

managed to emerge it last night and it is actually extreally good!!!!

I guess I just don't get it (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414623)

I'm a small business woman and in order to control costs, I have looked
at open source software as an alternative to MS. As a non-technical
person, it has been a very frustrating journey.

First of all, the term "free" seems misleading. It seems that you can
aquire a "starter" version of a Linux distro that is not production
ready for free. But if you want want that is tested and stable, one
needs to purchase an expensive yearly maitenance fee for each computer
it is installed on. My understanding is that one can aquire something
called "source" to the expensive linux distro version, but that the
source doesn't actually run the computer.

When researching, I read about "Redhat Linux" (sic ?). It seems that
they allowed one to download the complete "working" version for a while
but then they did a switchero and hid the working version download and
made it available to paying customers only. To pacify the rest, they
gave a "starter" ("Fredora" (sic?)) version to them. It seems they cut
off affordable support to those with the working version and replaced
it with something more expensive than MS.

My IT consultant put FireFox on my computer and it looks like another
switchero is in the works. With the members founding a corporation, it
looks like they will start charging for the good version and leave the
a "starter" version for the non-paying customers.

So is the business model of open-source to bait people with free
software when their software isn't as good as the commercial offerings,
and when it does become good or they get enough people on board, do
they just jack up the prices as much as possible? Seems to me this is
a poor business model, and I can't understand why a saleman recommended
it to me as a way to keep costs down. I would rather go with a vendor
where I can expect things to stay the same and a vendor that has a
clear business plan. That way they won't just change the rules halfway
like open source seems to.

Maybe it is a wrong impression, but that is what a good business woman
like myself sees.

Re:I guess I just don't get it (3, Insightful)

erroneus (253617) | about 9 years ago | (#13414796)

Your skepticism is misplaced.

What "starter" version of Linux are you talking about? I've been a RedHat and now Fedora user and have only paid for maybe two boxes... I wanted to get the stickers and stuff. I have only made ONE support call (mostly to see what it was like) only to be told they only support one NIC installation on a machine. Disappointing to say the least... it was years ago so maybe support has gotten better since then, I don't know, but I see almost no advantage to buying a support agreement. You're simply better off having a support PERSON on site or available on short notice and that goes for Linux or Windows or any OS.

Mozilla incorporating has nothing to do with making a version to be paid for. This is ALL open-source. The moment someone even thinks they will take it closed-source for profit, a fork will happen and someone else will drive the project as open source. There are many examples of this to cite... do I really need to?

"Good busines woman" or not, you don't know what you're talking about -- you're just unaccustomed to the way things work in the OS world. Salesmen are out to make money and I don't blame you for being suspicious of their intentions. But the OS community as a whole are more likely to do it for free just for the fun and challenge involved.

Open Source has too long a history to be a gimmick or a bait-n-switch. I still can't decide if you're a troll or not. If not, then I wonder what an experienced business woman would be doing here on Slashdot in the first place.

And finally, you need to re-think what computing does for your business. It's a tool, not a religion. Determine what tools you need to run your business and I heartily recommend you start with the applications you need to run and base your choice of OS secondarily. To make the choice of OS first would be a decision not on the OS as a tool, but for other reasons such as a bas experience with a BSA audit, or some reason that involves emotional drive of some sort. Think business tools and test a lot of stuff before settling on something. And if you select something that runs well under Linux, then consider your support options. (1) learn how to do it yourself (2) find someone who knows this stuff. I don't think it's any different under Windows really -- I have rarely had a support experience with Windows that was helpful.

P.S. Closed-minds and Open-source do not work well together.

Then.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414830)

Get back in the kitchen BITCH!!!

Both ways anyone? (1, Insightful)

Mattygfunk1 (596840) | about 9 years ago | (#13414625)

There's nothing wrong with MS being ambitious in aiming to get new features into Vista, and even if some don't make it - there have been 4 1/2 years since the last release that should improve the usability of the widest deployed desktop OS in the world today.

You can't sledge MS for taking longer than expected to release Vista, then in the next comment complain about the lack of features.

__
Funny videos, pics, flash & flesh [laughdaily.com]

Re:Both ways anyone? (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414677)

You can't sledge MS for taking longer than expected to release Vista, then in the next comment complain about the lack of features.

That fact that it's taken so long to release Vista is the very reason we can about the lack of features... What exactly have they been doing for the last four and a half years>

Re:Both ways anyone? (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414747)

No, stupid. You don't hype features like mad, then remove them completely from what you are hyping and tell the public, "Oh, just kidding. Those will take us YEARS to develop." Also, when removing things, it should take less work to finish your product. Less shit = less work. Hence the hulabaloo.

Re:Both ways anyone? (1)

Name Anonymous (850635) | about 9 years ago | (#13414790)

You can't sledge MS for taking longer than expected to release Vista, then in the next comment complain about the lack of features.

Funny, Apple is able to add lots of new features in Mac OS X in a much shorter timeframe than Microsoft has taken to produce Windows Vista.

And Microsoft probably has more people working on it as well.

So yes, it's quite reasonable to complain that Microsoft flubbed adding features to the next version of Windows.

Uses today's hardwre. Linux, not anytime soon. (5, Insightful)

ApoJooce (894988) | about 9 years ago | (#13414627)

There is no absence of innovation or new features. Avalon, the new graphics subsystem, and the developer tools that will allow you to develop for it, have leapfrogged everything I have ever seen. While Linux will still be using the 2D capabilities of a graphics card (sucks!) Microsoft Vista will be using all that tremendous 3D technology already present in our machines to render your desktop. 3rd party apps will be using it too. Yes, at first it feels like it will need ebtter equipment, but when you finally get that equipment and your pathetic X-Window or other Linux windowing system looks ridiculously passé when compared to Windows Vista, you'll realize Microsoft is no longer trying to catch up to OS X, which is already a much more polished OS than any Linux flavor.

Re:Uses today's hardwre. Linux, not anytime soon. (1)

aleander (95485) | about 9 years ago | (#13414678)

1. Last time I checked, Avalon was being killed, erm, "removed from the default distro".
2. http://cairographics.org/ [cairographics.org]

Re:Uses today's hardwre. Linux, not anytime soon. (1)

xpulsar87x (305131) | about 9 years ago | (#13414808)

Guess you've never heard of Cairo [cairographics.org] (as another reply pointed out), or maybe Xgl [freedesktop.org] /Xegl [freedesktop.org] ?

Or even seen the videos [gnome.org] of what luminocity [gnome.org] can do? It can do that NOW. How about Project Looking Glass [java.net] ?

Just becuase you don't know about them yet doesn't mean they don't exist.

So... (2, Insightful)

EvilMonkeySlayer (826044) | about 9 years ago | (#13414629)

Desktop linux will break out next year!

Just like the year before that and the year before that, hang on.. i'm noticing a trend.. next year is always the year of desktop linux..

TV Commercials? (5, Interesting)

Conspiracy_Of_Doves (236787) | about 9 years ago | (#13414636)

The majority of people out there still haven't even heard of Linux. The people who just use their computers for email and think that AOL is the internet. Have there ever even been any TV ads for any of the commercial linux distros? What the linux community needs to do is make a real ad campain. I realize it costs money, but with all the people out there that love linux with a furvor, there shouldn't be that much of a problem raising funds.

Re:TV Commercials? (1)

NewStarRising (580196) | about 9 years ago | (#13414736)

Until recently (In the UK) there has not been much in the way of TV commercials for Windows/Microsoft.
I agree that one of the major advantages Windows has at the moment, in terms of what OS the mass market will buy, is its already-large user base.
People will continue to buy Windows because:
1) They are familiar with it
2) all their friends use it.
3) They know someone who can fix it
4) They are familiar with the programs they use on it.

A lot of geeks seem to miss out on the fact that moving to Linux is a MAJOR step for someone who knows a little about Windows.
Often they have spent many hours of heartache trying to remember where the "change desktop wallpaper" button is, and were really prooud to help their frinds find it. If it changes, they will again be lost.

For people who have never really used a computer, Linux is just as easy/hard to learn as Windows, and these are the epeople we should be getting interested in Linux.
Joe (I've been using Windows for 5 years but can't back up my data to CD) sixpack will be the hardest to switch.

The one thing holding Linux back on the desktop (1)

stixman (119688) | about 9 years ago | (#13414637)

...is KDE 3.x's new "hopping" mouse pointer. Get rid of that, and we're all set.

Terrible article (5, Insightful)

Knome_fan (898727) | about 9 years ago | (#13414647)

Am I the only one that thinks that article doesn't make too much sense?

I fail to see how vista, even if it weren't very convincing, will help linux getting on the desktop. All a bad windows release will lead to in the short tearm is not many people buying Vist, but staying with their curren OS, which is some kind of Windows in most cases.

And people who really care about monad not being included are people who would consider running linux anyway, but they only make a small percentage of the market.

Further, I'm convinced that Linux will not make large inroads into the private desktop in the near future, not because Linux isn't good enough, but simply because Windows is much to entrenched in this market.

Corporate and gouvernment desktops are an other story though and we'll see a lot of things happening there in the future, I'm sure.

Not trolling, but... (4, Insightful)

trezor (555230) | about 9 years ago | (#13414649)

"Year of the Linux desktop" or whatever. Isn't that a dupe and troll in itself? It's been repeated over and over again, and yet never happened.

Honestly, I don't think Linux (as it is now anyway) is ready for the desktop. Why? Sure, you got aptitude and lot of neat stuff. Gnome may be bloated as hell, but it looks good, and that's what most consumers want.

You got lots of good stuff, but when your average linux-distro starts to break down, when stuff doesn't work automagicly, when hardware detetction fails and so on... Most users (and by most users I also mean powerusers) will have a really hard time fixing stuff, if they even manage to fix it at all. Not all of us are geeks who grew up with a keyboard.

Plus, I don't really care if linux hits the mainstream or not. I use what works for me, I'll let others use what works for them. To me, open standards are a lot more important than whatever OS people are running to get their work done.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

SsShane (754647) | about 9 years ago | (#13414691)

The article AND comments are dupes. Just copy this comment you made and save it for the next article about Linux rising to the desktop.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

Knome_fan (898727) | about 9 years ago | (#13414698)

""Year of the Linux desktop" or whatever. Isn't that a dupe and troll in itself? It's been repeated over and over again, and yet never happened."

That simply isn't true, no matter how often people repeat it. Actually, it has grown quite significantly in market share (remember, some studies give Linux on the desktop the same market share as OSX) and as anyone following Linux developement would know, the desktop experience modern distributions offer has been getting dramatically better over the years.

"You got lots of good stuff, but when your average linux-distro starts to break down, when stuff doesn't work automagicly, when hardware detetction fails and so on... Most users (and by most users I also mean powerusers) will have a really hard time fixing stuff, if they even manage to fix it at all. Not all of us are geeks who grew up with a keyboard."

Sorry, but that's not a very convincing argument. If the shit hits the fan, then the shit hits the fan and that's true for any OS out there. Ever tried to fix a broken Windows install? It sure isn't something your average users wouls be able to manage.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

trezor (555230) | about 9 years ago | (#13414745)

If the shit hits the fan, then the shit hits the fan and that's true for any OS out there. Ever tried to fix a broken Windows install? It sure isn't something your average users wouls be able to manage.

Well, I dont know about you, but I believe most people are able to download drivers from the vendor, run setup.exe and reboot.

Compare that to my WLAN-case which involved custom compiling a generic Atmel-based WLAN-chipset kernel-module, modifying the source for the correct device ID, which I had to guess and making sure that it all played nice and correctly with kernel trough a modprobe.conf or whatever.

Compare that to my case of getting video-only TV-out, which involved reconfigureing X manually (not a very hard thing to do, but find any average user who'll be able to do just that) to support 2 different sessions, making custom mplayer launch scripts which launches on the secondary session, resizing the video to a pre-set resolution, and then having the video-adapter resizing that again before it's sent out to my TV. Copmpare that to ticking a box which says "enable overlay based TV-out" without any unneccasary resizing.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying linux is crap, but it takes a lot more love to get stuff working. Yes, I know it's not entirely fair blaming the OS for lack of vendor support, but you get my point. And to most users this is in any case utterly irellevant. They want something that works, and don't care why it doesn't when it doesn't.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1, Interesting)

swillden (191260) | about 9 years ago | (#13414719)

Most users (and by most users I also mean powerusers) will have a really hard time fixing stuff, if they even manage to fix it at all.

Complete nonsense. Windows power users can fix a broken Windows all right... by reinstalling it. Regular Windows users are just lost. If you consider reinstallation as the primary repair option, most modern Linux distributions are much easier to repair becaue their install process is faster and easier than Windows XPs.

And, of course, extremely sophisticated users of both OSes can fix a broken install without having to blow it away.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

trezor (555230) | about 9 years ago | (#13414762)

Complete nonsense. Windows power users can fix a broken Windows all right... by reinstalling it

Yes and no. See my other comment [slashdot.org] and tell me running to vendor supplied setup.exe-files is anywhere near what I had to do to get my stuff working in linux.

And tell me most users wouldn't be able to reinstall their drivers by running a simple vendor supplied executable.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

ephraimhorse (707223) | about 9 years ago | (#13414765)

Amen to that.

Maintainability, maintainability, maintainability. Too little thought went into Linux maintainability so far.

In the long term, it is not the coolest environment which is going to prevail, but the one which is the most maintanable, because it can be incrementally improved.

Re:Not trolling, but... (1)

Peaker (72084) | about 9 years ago | (#13414798)

You got lots of good stuff, but when your average linux-distro starts to break down, when stuff doesn't work automagicly, when hardware detetction fails and so on... Most users (and by most users I also mean powerusers) will have a really hard time fixing stuff, if they even manage to fix it at all. Not all of us are geeks who grew up with a keyboard.

Yes, when it breaks down its hard to fix. Not that it's very easy to fix the Windows registry when it breaks down, either.

I recently installed Kubuntu on a couple of computers, and it did a great job autodetecting most things, and did not require any special knowledge to configure or run anything. On the very-new-hardware one, it failed to detect sound and I had to manually download and install a new alsa not yet available as a package to get sound.

Kubuntu is in my opinion ready-for-the-desktop as Windows ever was, except that you better take care to use supported hardware, or just stay away from cutting-edge-hardware so it has time to become supported.

Missing the point (3, Insightful)

gunpowda (825571) | about 9 years ago | (#13414651)

The important thing to realise about new Windows product launches is that they form part of a cathartic marketing ritual. People want to buy a brand new, higher spec computer along with the latest version of whatever it is Microsoft has to offer because there's a mentality that 'old' and 'slow' spyware-infested computers are no longer functional, and this new product can solve all one's current issues, and it often does: XP was a vast reliability leap from ME or Win98.

Quite a few people see the OS as ineluctably linked with the hardware.

I think using a seemingly less polished, cheaper (or free) operating system will take much of the enjoyment out of a new computer purchase - after all, most copies of Windows are bundled with the latest hardware, and the high specifications required for Vista aren't going to bother the majority of users who will overhaul their whole system when confronted by the marketing blitz.

Vista is the deathknell for Linux and Mac. (0, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414664)

Really. Vista is the deathknell for Linux and Mac desktops. Read it again if it hasn't sunk in as yet.

Which OS would provide a combination of an XML language for UI, mapped tightly to an extensive and powerful API like WinFX ? Windows Vista (with XAML, Avalon, Indigo). And almost all these are already being back ported to Windows XP. So, hundreds of millions of users will have a 'Vista lite' type of a thing. That is a pretty big user base to develop for. Put simply, Vista applications would look stunning, be more powerful (strong support for web services on the desktop) and at the same time will be relatively easier to build.

Add to the above - 999 out of every 1000 new desktop computers will ship with Vista pre-installed when it is released. The deals have been in place for a long time. This is even before Microsoft spends $1 on Vista marketing.

Don't fool yourself - developers will abandon Linux and Mac (unless these platforms provide a similar development approach). Developers abandoning means users would abandon. People don't buy a computer because of the OS, they buy it because of what they can DO with it (applications)

As a developer, I can feel where the market is headed and that this is Microsoft's attempt to kill off Linux, Mac, PDF, Flash, Java, .NET (yeah !!), Sun, the HTML World Wide Web (replaced with XAML World Wide Web), Firefox, etc. This is their nuclear bomb !

So, there is only one response for this: build a cross-platform, open, 'thing' (a XUL-Java combination maybe).

People wake up !!!

Re:Vista is the deathknell for Linux and Mac. (1)

Knome_fan (898727) | about 9 years ago | (#13414717)

"Add to the above - 999 out of every 1000 new desktop computers will ship with Vista pre-installed when it is released. The deals have been in place for a long time. This is even before Microsoft spends $1 on Vista marketing."

And that is different from the situation today in what way exactly?

Oh, it isn't. MS has had a monopoly on the desktop for years now and it has been using this monopoly to get a foothold in other markets for years now too, but still OSX and Linux stick around.

So apart from your pretty marketing babble, your post doesn't make any sense.

Re:Vista is the deathknell for Linux and Mac. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414735)

"So apart from your pretty marketing babble, your post doesn't make any sense."

Very nice way of saying the entire post doesn't make any sense ;)

lack of features vs hardware requirements (1)

johnpaul191 (240105) | about 9 years ago | (#13414674)

won't the lack of features cut back on the hardware requirements? i don't follow windows stuff, but that is the impression i got from my housemate. i know they cut a lot of things in general, but i thought some of the things missing would lessen the number of current machines that would not handle the new OS.

if the current machine can run XP, then i bet a lot of people run it as long as they can. i would like to see them switch over to Linux, but let's be realistic. a lot of people never really upgrade the OS on their machine. those are also the people that are generally behind on security patches.... but who knows how long Microsoft will kept patching XP after Vista ships.

xyzcomputing haha article (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414701)

somehow I cannot beleive for somebody (xyzcomputing) who do screenshots with a digital camera.

As much as I like Linux... (1)

doodleboy (263186) | about 9 years ago | (#13414728)

Microsoft isn't trying to lock out competing technologies (free software) or lock us out of the hardware for the benefit of intellectual property "rightsholders." Oh no, those are accidents. They're just trying to protect us from viruses. You know, like for our own good and stuff.

Want to see Microsoft's vision of the PC? Take a look at the Xbox. Of course it will be possible to run Linux on newer TPM enabled systems, but then a lot of digital content won't work. And ordinary people won't have the energy or know-how to get unapproved software running.

It doesn't matter much that geeky features like WinFS or Monad are getting dumped. They were never the main point anyway.

Not at all (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414733)

Very interesting read, and timely

Actually, no.

The idea is more wishful thinking and what the author would LIKE to see happen.

The reality is Open Source is going to be torpedoed with software patents. Eventually, there will be a 'common' process that can only be done with the Microsoft tool suite. Without changes in the law, they only way you'll be able to participate in that process is to licence Microsoft.

The only way the 'vision' the author will come to pass is if software patents are not complete and Microsoft raises its prices beyond what companies are willing to pay.

A more likely future for the Microsoft/Open Source balance to change is a recession/depression. Business will still want to use computers/software but won't have excess money to PAY for software. And in a battlefield of $0, Microsoft can't win.

So....how many "Open Source must win" people are wanting a recession/depression?

Any benefit for corporations? (4, Insightful)

bender647 (705126) | about 9 years ago | (#13414738)

My company didn't use Windows 98 (or ME) at all. They stuck with 95 until the obvious benefits of Windows 2000 (and now XP) were mainstream. I haven't read about one feature in Vista that would compell them to upgrade a thousand or more PCs. They won't do it to give us more eye candy, or to raise the minimum system requirements.

Vista could be the deathknell for Linux and Mac. (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414744)

Really. Vista is the deathknell for Linux and Mac desktops. Read it again if it hasn't sunk in as yet.

Which OS would provide a combination of an XML language for UI, mapped tightly to an extensive and powerful API like WinFX ? Windows Vista (with XAML, Avalon, Indigo). And almost all these are already being back ported to Windows XP. So, hundreds of millions of users will have a 'Vista lite' type of a thing. That is a pretty big user base to develop for. Put simply, Vista applications would look stunning, be more powerful (strong support for web services on the desktop) and at the same time will be relatively easier to build.

Add to the above - 998 out of every 1000 new desktop computers will ship with Vista pre-installed when it is released. The deals have been in place for a long time. This is even before Microsoft spends $1 on Vista marketing.

Don't fool yourself - developers will abandon Linux and Mac almost completely or at least new app development would be severely stunted on these platforms. Developers abandoning means users would abandon. People don't buy a computer because of the OS, they buy it because of what they can DO with it (applications) !

As a developer, I can feel where the market is headed and that this is Microsoft's attempt to kill off Linux, Mac, PDF, Flash, Java, .NET, Internet Explorer, Sun, the HTML World Wide Web (replaced with XAML World Wide Web), Firefox, etc. This is their grand strategy and a nuclear bomb on the whole software-internet industry !

I am very surprised at the lack of alarm about this amongst Microsoft's rivals.

Building a cross-platform, open 'thing' (a XUL-Java combination maybe) seems like a viable response. Just open source individual efforts perhaps won't be enough. It would require corporate backing (IBM, Sun, etc). This is the 'Extinguish' phase of 'Extend, Embrace, Extinguish'.

Remember, it's not only 'survival of the fittest', in the human world it is also 'Survival of the Smartest'.

People wake up !!!

- varun mathur

Every Year (0)

Anonymous Coward | about 9 years ago | (#13414753)

Every year is "linux on the desktop" year. It's interesting to see when the whole idea will eventually fade. 5 years? 10 years ? hell give it 20 years, windows is here to stay.

Decade of the Linux desktop (1)

Lemming Mark (849014) | about 9 years ago | (#13414757)

Despite Linux's increasing share of the server room, can anyone remember the "Year of the Linux server"? People keep looking for the "Year of the Linux Desktop" and to a certain extent they're right: each year, events occur that could help increase desktop share. There's just no decisive flip to Linux.

Linux is already desktop ready for large segments of users - for others it's nowhere close. Growing marketshare takes time and is self-reinforcing - the process is just going to take a while.

Since when? (1)

BinLadenMyHero (688544) | about 9 years ago | (#13414772)

Since when thechnical merits have anything to do with market dominance?
As others posters have pointed out, the situation has not changed much, and will not.

Personally, I don't care that much. Maybe Windows is good for the average ignorant (normal non-computer-geek people) because, unlike Linux, it's focused on doing the tasks they way, having to think the least possible.

Maybe someday a big company --- whith enough power to fitht Microsoft, and whose name the public already respect (Google?) --- will make a successful Linux distro with this same focus.

Linux on the desktop died when gnome was released (1)

acomj (20611) | about 9 years ago | (#13414787)

Companies and most consumers do not enjoy the multitude of desktop choices the linux provides. It was predicted years ago in the KDE/GNOME world that one would emerge clearly superior to the other and the other would disapear. This hasn't happened.

Clearly linux on the desktop for the general population would be better served putting all the effort into one consistant desktop. It would not please all the tweakers who like to configure every little thing. Sure KDE/GNOMR are similar, but not the same.

There are some that would argue that linux isn't for the masses and should require some knowledge /research . I would note that the more copies of linux that are out there, the more each one is worth, as it becomes more likely software you want will be ported to the platform

New Windows New Linux Opportunity (1)

jimharris (14678) | about 9 years ago | (#13414799)

The advantage of Windows over Linux is software compatibility. I am not looking forward to Windows Vista because of the hundreds of computers we maintain at work, few, if any, will be ready for Vista because of hardware compatibility. We have ten percent Macintoshes and they suffer from both software and hardware incompatibility. At least where I work, the momentum is behind Windows XP & Office 2003. It's not a choice, but a fact of reality. Getting Macs and Linux boxes to work on the same playing field requires a lot of effort. I fear that Vista might add extra work to our load and have no plans to move to it.

Linux entices on the server side, but not the desktop side. My newest interest is Plone. The potential there is to provide useful services for hundreds of my users. Internet applications is where the creativity is at.

hardware issues (1)

zogger (617870) | about 9 years ago | (#13414805)

now, most all add on hardware says XP READY! Then it will say VISTA READY! And it will still be the same dismal state of affairs with plug in stuff and hope it works. That is a major issue that will turn people off unless they have a tame linux geek handy and many hours of patience.

What a joke (1)

tnhtnh (870708) | about 9 years ago | (#13414819)

Most of that article is an absolute joke. The argument that people will switch to linux to avoid the cost of upgrading their hardware is absolutely floorled. Cos we all know that all new games will only need the current day spec'd machines to run. Furthermore Linux will only enter mainstream desktop computing after a distro(s) partners up with a packaging vendor like Dell HP and have linux pre-installed. If Jo blogs novice computer user buys a computer that has windows pre-installed paid for in the price, why would they want to swap to linux. Also, do you think someone buying a packaged system would be technically competent to do so? Possibly not. Until we see more prebuilt systems with linux and better games under linux, MS will contain their significant market share in the desktop market.

less features does not matter (1)

Lumpy (12016) | about 9 years ago | (#13414825)

Does everyone forget that the bulk of the computing public wants more shiney blinkey and purdy?

joe Q dont care that vista has no monads. joe Q does not even know WHAT a filesystem is.

Joe Q will buy a new PC with vista on it, joe Q proved this with XP, he did not run out and buy XP he got it on his next machine.

the ONLY way linux will get on the desktop is DELL offering it at a $150.00 discount

the FUD about useability, installer, GUI and all the other crap I see flung about here has nothing to do with it.

getting it pre-installed is the ONLY way it will get there, and that will not happen until MSFT is forced to stop their illegal behaivoir of "you pay full retail for the OEM version unless we are the only OS in the house... oh and then you have to pay us for every machine no matter if it has MS on it or not."

Desktop Linux needs the following: (4, Insightful)

bogaboga (793279) | about 9 years ago | (#13414833)

Desktop Linux will still be a long way off until applications can be installed and un-installed in an easy way. I know folks are going to mention apt-get and its sister dpkg tools. But these are not very useful unless one can configure them and is also on the internet. With the rich resources of the OSS community, one wonders why rpm dependency hell has no adopted solution. Autopackage http://www.autopackage.org/ [autopackage.org] would be a good start but all major distros are not even giving it support! From a developer's point of view, writing an application for Linux means testing the application on no more than 6 distros! In some cases, I have seen more than 17 binaries for the same applications targeting different Linux distros. In the Windows world, there could be just 1 or 2. So it follows that if we in the Linux world can make life easier for developers, then that is positive. Our egos alone will not deliver. I think we need some kind of dictatrship here.

The other thing Desktop Linux needs is good fonts. I am yet to find a desktop Linux installation that is beautiful out of the box. Often times, one has to download M$ fonts or could use the script found here: http://vigna.dsi.unimi.it/webFonts4Linux/webFonts. sh [unimi.it] to get good fonts for the web.

Next thing is multimedia and multimedia applications. Totem in the GNOME world and Amarok in the KDE world will not play mp3s out of the box, yet there are no licensing restrictions on these formats! These are so many other examples in the multimedia field.

There is a bug/feature I found in Linux that needs attention in relation to how devices are mounted. Remember that we in the Linux world are aiming at domination. So we should attract as many users as we can. The bug is here: http://bugs.kde.org/show_bug.cgi?id=111173 [kde.org] . I was surprised that there was a wontfix mentioned. So how are we to attract users if there will always be confusion in how devices are mounted?

Last but not least, we need publicity - good publicity. Right now, Linux is being touted as very good or good enough for the average user. What happens is that folks then have to understand that Linux is just a KERNEL and that there are many implementations associated with this kernel. To many, understanding this is a challenge. So one says "I use Linux at home, it's freely available on the net...try it out..." (and they leave it at that)! What follows is confusion as newbies find tons of distros and incompatible packages. Folks what do you think?

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