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Linux Five Years Away From Mainstream

Zonk posted more than 8 years ago | from the isn't-it-already-mainstream? dept.

Linux Business 497

wellington wrote to mention a ZDNet blurb about a Gartner group study. Gartner indicates that 'mainstream' use of open source in IT environments may be 5 years away. From the article: "Gartner's latest Linux 'hype cycle' report shows that open source is halfway to maturity but warns the biggest test will be whether it can demonstrate the necessary performance and security to function as a data centre server for mission-critical applications. Leading-edge businesses are generally still in the early stages of Linux deployments but Gartner expects increased commercialisation and improved storage and systems management for the operating system by the end of 2005, with Linux being used primarily for WebSphere and infrastructure applications on mainframes and web services on blades and racks."

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497 comments

Nuclear Fusion (5, Insightful)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518605)

Did you know that nuclear fusion is only 20 years away? Just like it was in 1950! (No, I'm not skeptical. Not at all.)

When I wrote my article [blogspot.com] and its follow-up [blogspot.com] on directions I think a Linux Distribution could take, I expected that there would be some controversy. However, I hardly expected the shear number of responses to the effect of, "Linux is great as it is! Never change it!"

Which is surprising, because the very point of the Linux design is that different distributions were supposed to be able to explore completely different tracks. There shouldn't be any "one distro to rule them all", yet many of the respondants demanded exactly that! (Amusingly, they couldn't agree on *which* distro to rule them all.)

When I pointed this out to many responders, and mentioned the fact that I'm merely attempting to suggest a Desktop environment that would help Linux adoption, I got another surprising response: "Who said we wanted regular users? Linux is for the elite. If you're too stupid to recompile your kernel or read all the scattered HOWTOs, you're too stupid to use Linux!"

I understand that the Linux community is wide and varied, but this sort of attitude is not helping anyone. In fact, this sort of attitude causes Linux to take two steps back for every one step forward it takes in the market.

It's normal that Linux users will disagree. That's why Linux is just a kernel, KDE/GNOME are just desktop environments, and the GNU System is just a collection of Unix utilities. It's so the end distributions can build the OS necessary to meet their users. But such a design DOES NOT require that users berate each other! Rather, Linux users should understand that "idiot" users using an "idiot" distribution is okay. Gentoo users can still recompile Gentoo to their hearts content even though Ubuntu exists. Ubuntu users can still use Ubuntu workstations even though Fedora exists. Fedora users can still a have 100% "Free as in socks and gun ownership" OS even though SuSE exists.

There's no reason for this OS bigotry. It's causing confusion in the marketplace, and generally turning the public off to Linux. Just pick the distro you like, and be happy for other people who use something that works for them. K?

Re:Nuclear Fusion (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518641)

Another selfish plug for someones stupid blog, and using your Karma. Pathetic.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (2, Insightful)

Spy der Mann (805235) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518869)

And a one liner doing an ad-hominem attack got a +4 Insightful. Wonderful.

Perhaps you should read the ACTUAL content of his blog, and the responses to it, before criticizing blindly. His point wasn't to advertise his blog, but to show two particular pages in it.

Besides, his point was valid, wasn't it? And it's not the first time someone posts in his blog/journal about Linux not being user-friendly enough. I'd post a link to my /. journal, but I don't want to be accused of "slashvertising".

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

rhavenn (97211) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518645)

Yeap, use FreeBSD. Problem solved, except of course you still have to figure out which desktop environ to run :)

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

Thalagyrt (851883) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518680)

Wow, you mean I'm not the only guy on Slashddot that uses FreeBSD? :P

FreeBSD? (0, Offtopic)

FST777 (913657) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518888)

Wow, you mean I'm not the only guy on Slashddot that uses FreeBSD? :P

I can't help but wonder why I have no troubles setting up FreeBSD as my desktop, on our new webserver or as automated terminal clients for our Windows Terminal Service while I can't figure out how to use Linux for anything usefull.

Could that have something to do with something called Ports and Packages?

(Seriously, I tried Linux! Several times!)

Re:Nuclear Fusion (4, Funny)

b1t r0t (216468) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518824)

Yeap, use FreeBSD. Problem solved, except of course you still have to figure out which desktop environ to run :)

I hear there's this really nice one called "Aqua". They're even porting it to other architectures now.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518657)

GNU is not just a collection of Unix utilities. It's meant to be a full replacement for Unix, and that's why there's GNOME, Emacs, GNU games, and so forth.

I would prefer to call the vague "Linux" that makes up our distributions "Gnu", because although most of the important software is outside the control of the GNU project, all of the important software uses a free license.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518787)

hi RMS, long time no posting. Since you're out hunting, may inquire as to when will Gnome finally be ported to Emacs? I want to get rid of that pesky Xorg server and have my full GNU stack already.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518661)

Here's an exciting concept...

Nobody really gives a shit (about how "experts" like you think Linux should be, or will be in the future).

If people want to use it, they'll use it. If not, they won't. It's really as simple as that. It's not about "OS bigotry" or "bad attitudes". It's about personal choice. Apparently, you just don't get it.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518666)

"in the market."

Linux does not need to be "in the market", it is free. If people can make some money off of Linux then good luck to them, but Linux should not change to meet some commercial wish list.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (5, Insightful)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518700)

Here's a perfect example of what I'm talking about:

If people can make some money off of Linux then good luck to them, but Linux should not change to meet some commercial wish list.

Why not? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet commercial desires? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet home user desires? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet scientific researchers' desires?

What is wrong with different Linux distros to meet the desires of different markets? Isn't that the entire point of Linux? "It's just a kernel," we say. But then the community berates anyone who attempts to reuse that kernel in Community Unapproved Ways(TM). How does that help anyone?

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

benjcurry (754899) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518826)

The whole point is that Linux can be anything no matter what one person says or wants. So why are you paying attention to one person's ideas as if they were important?

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

gstoddart (321705) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518896)

If people can make some money off of Linux then good luck to them, but Linux should not change to meet some commercial wish list.

Why not? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet commercial desires? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet home user desires? Why can't there be a Linux distribution that is changed to meet scientific researchers' desires?

I think you've missed the poster's point.

He's saying the overall structure of Linux, and the way it's developed should not change to support a specific company's wish list. Meaning, the way the kernel is developed wouldn't suddenly be under the control of a single entity who wanted some other stuff to optimize for {insert whatever here}.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with companies making their own distributions. Nor for making one for scientists, nor for left-handed myopic howler monkeys if you so choose.

They are as free, and on their own as everyone else, to change it the way they need to. But that shouldn't mean that Linus focuses solely on the features that someone assembling their own distribution wants. Or that the development community gets told "OK, no more cool stuff, the vendor is trying to make a stable release".

Linux is more than any single distro, and shouldn't be co-opted by a single distro. The suggestions of some grand-unified, all-encompasing version simply wouldn't work.

Cheers

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

cyborg_zx (893396) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518679)

When I pointed this out to many responders, and mentioned the fact that I'm merely attempting to suggest a Desktop environment that would help Linux adoption, I got another surprising response: "Who said we wanted regular users? Linux is for the elite. If you're too stupid to recompile your kernel or read all the scattered HOWTOs, you're too stupid to use Linux!"

Some people are just assholes. People will say that for certain Windows software and such as well. It's not an exclusively Linux thing - it just happens to be more associated with it.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518730)

Indeed. However, that association has been causing significant harm to Linux adoption. I met a fellow over on WCNews [wcnews.com] who claimed that the Linux community "scared him." As a result, he tried to have as little to do with Linux as possible. (Although from his wording, I think his point extended beyond Linux to the GNU community as well.)

As any businessman can tell you, scaring away the customers is not good for business. :-)

Re:Nuclear Fusion (2, Insightful)

cyborg_zx (893396) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518795)

As any businessman can tell you, scaring away the customers is not good for business. :-)

Indeed, but Linux is not a business and the people in the community you are referring to are not business-like. Unfortunately there's very little one can do if these people cannot be reasoned with. We just have to try our best to be more vocal in our helpfulness then they are in their scorn.

Really? (1)

Transdimentia (840912) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518843)

People are assholes because:
  • they don't need a GUI
  • linux does what they need and they use it for that
  • they would rather see effort put into the inner workings to make it more stable and efficient
  • they don't necessarily care if Joe Bob next door is running it
????

Yes, more adoption gets more development started. But that usually is just to dumb down the rest of the OS/Dist/whatever so you can get more adoption. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Hey, I like eye candy too, and I do use a desktop occasionally. However, people are not assholes just because they don't have the same objectives as you.

Re:Really? (1)

Rhys Hardwick (876699) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518893)

That is all well and good, and I am sure, no matter what happens, there will always be plenty of people out there who do not want to dumn anything down. The problem people have is that there is resistance to creating a 'simple' linux based distro. Why not, have a whole new arm of linux based on a completely different setup. I am sure, with plenty of people with your attitude around, that the core linux development will continue.

Re:Really? (1)

cyborg_zx (893396) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518900)

However, people are not assholes just because they don't have the same objectives as you.

Nice post Captain Strawman! I never argued as such. The advantage of Linux is diversity not uniformity. That doesn't mean people have to be rude because they consider GUIs to be beneath them or that they consider someone to be the wrong class of person to use 'their' OS - because it's the people's OS, not theirs.

Real 1337 users would be building their distro from the ground up so complaints that brand X is 'too dumbed down' doesn't fly with me.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518705)

There are many successful businesses using Linux.

There are no successful businesses using nuclear fusion to create electricity.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (5, Insightful)

LiquidCoooled (634315) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518714)

Linux is complicated.

Not in the software thats available, but in sheer choice of software.

MS Has Windows XP home and Windows XP Professional, designed for the general required use, its easy to tell epopel to get the correct version.

99.9999% of home users don't ever need or want a c compiler, or 4 different word processors, or 13 ways to do the same thing, they want the most efficient simple way. The list goes on, but people suffer from too much choice, its like going into a foreign sweetshop and not knowing the names of the products.

If I could just tell somebody to go and get the "Home" version of Linux - from whichever vendor was currently hot then it would be easier to get people to switch.

After they have gotten used to their version and know their way around, then they can start customising it and adding all the perfect bits, but until that point, its just overpowering.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (2, Insightful)

Rhys Hardwick (876699) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518867)

I agree with some of what you are saying, but disagree whole-heartedly with others. Whenever I talk to people who have no idea about linux, I tend to get a lot of interest from the fact you can _choose_ what program you want to use. They like the idea that if one program doesn't suit you, you can choose from a whole host of others. One good example is word processors: OOo and KOffice are designed to appeal to different people. KMail and Evolution suit different people in different ways(in fact I use both depending on what I am doing). I personally love that choice, and new users seem excited by it. I also think the same of distributions. Gentoo is not meant for newbies. Try Linspire or Ubuntu. What perhaps we need is easier to access information for those wanting to start linux on what distribution is for them. I hate it when people say "They're all different, you'll just have to try them all!!" That's ridiculous for new users. Someone stick their neck out and say, bold and clear, try this one!

5 years is not much to a large enterprise (4, Interesting)

RMH101 (636144) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518906)

researching, designing and implementing (smoothly, including migrating your data to your new environment with no impact to the business) a change to a new operating system *always* takes a long time. here, we're not moving to XP from 2000 as it's not worth it: we're moving to longhorn as and when it emerges. it'd take just as much planning (probably more, in fact) to shift to linux. think upgrade cycles. think win2k going off support as a driver to change. 5 years doesn't seem all that long to me...

Re:Nuclear Fusion (4, Insightful)

l3v1 (787564) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518725)

Linux users should understand that "idiot" users using an "idiot" distribution is okay

I'm also fed up with some things, like ignorant idiotic "Linux [distro] reviews" and "Linux will be ready for [substitute as required] in 5 years" rants.

For the record, I have nothing against making one or more distribuions which would target the joe6pack masses, the "idiot" user base who doesn't know a kernel from an OS, a computer from a monitor, etc.

What I don't like is when dozens of reviews say Linux is a piece of junk because the usual computer-illiterate is not able to click his/her way through the installation process, because they can't be expected to know their hardware, and so on, coming to the conclusiont hat Linux is not ready for anything.

What I'd like my point to be here is that Linux is ready for a huge variety of things. Literally. It just takes a few energetic people and some funding to prepare a 6pack-friendly disto. Besides that, it is already ready to be used for datacenters, web server farms, clusters, developer workstations, and I could just go on with this, and many of you could even name exemples for them with known big players to back up the claims.

Stating anything that sounds like "Linux is/isnot/will/willnot be ready for this/that in 1/2/3/... years/ever" is just plain fraggin' stupid and idiotic. There is no "linux". Linux is what you make of it. One could correctly state that there does not exist a specific Linux distro that would specifically target the 6pack clicking crowd, but one should not state that such a distro could not be developed.

Re:Nuclear Fusion (1)

CuCullin (551104) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518842)

"There's no reason for this OS bigotry. It's causing confusion in the marketplace, and generally turning the public off to Linux. Just pick the distro you like, and be happy for other people who use something that works for them. K?" Screw K, Gnome r0x0rz! But seriously, I agree. I have several distros happily sharing the same desktop, with SuSe on my roommates systems, Fedora on my tablet, OpenSuSe on my laptop, and Knoppix as my live cd. All of them very happily connect to the slackware box being used as a server. Now, while I do believe each distro has its place, and I find that certain distros are better than others for particular purposes, this is not to say another distro can't perform in a similar way. As such, I wouldn't ever frown on any distro that does what it says it can (However, there are a few I wouldn't even allow near any of my boxes, like Xandros, which failed (retail version, in box, btw, bought by my roommate on impulse) during installation on four different pc's, 2 of which currently have SuSe, the others being OpenSuSe and Fedora.).

Re:Nuclear Fusion (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518852)

I tried Linux a few years ago. Sat in a room for three days and followed the books, installed it, got Apache up and running, and installed PHPBB. It was OK, I guess. But then I tried to add a hard drive. It was then I realized that until someone comes up with an automated way for the OS to recognize the hardware changes such as this Linux will never be widely received by semi-advanced computer users as myself. No one has time to muck with it, especially when the world runs on Windows. I expect the OS to recognize that there's another hard drive in the system wtihout having to edit some crypic text file somewhere; and at the time there was zero help for me for this particular topic. All the information available was about navigating around the OS and stupid TAR. Wanna add a hard drive? You're SOL (at that time).

Re:Nuclear Fusion (2, Informative)

zootm (850416) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518901)

Out of general curiosity, were there any positive responses to your article? Have any people offered to start projects and help implement some of your proposed changes?

I'm not an experienced developer in "low-level" languages like C or C++, but I'd like to help out wherever I can. I know the GNOME Storage project is working on some things similar to some of your suggestions, but otherwise I liked your article and I've got a strong inclination to help out with any projects like this, so it'd be useful to know where I can help...

they're a little late (5, Insightful)

spiderworm (830684) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518611)

Linux was mainstream five years ago.

Re:they're a little late (1)

leonbev (111395) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518655)

True, Linux is already mainstream for servers. It might take another five years to Linux to become a major player on the desktop, though.

Re:they're a little late (3, Insightful)

spiderworm (830684) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518738)

I take issue with the argument that Linux isn't mainstream until it's mainstream on the desktop. Just because people don't realize it powers a lot of the servers whose websites they visit doesn't mean it's not mainstream.

per Webster:

mainstream: a prevailing current or direction of activity or influence

Major player on the Desktop (4, Informative)

hummassa (157160) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518791)

Depending on whom you ask, Linux is already a major player in the desktop.
It au pair with OSX in raw number of desktops installed in a lot of places, and was pushed in a lot of countries to the desktop. Ubuntu Hoary / Fedora Core are every bit as easy to install than W2k/XP, and work equally well. Choose your desktop environment for your users and you're set.

Re:they're a little late (0)

Scarblac (122480) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518735)

I entirely agree.

Proof: this summer I was at a birthday party with 11 people, 6 of them female. And all of the people there had at least one computer at home that was at least dual boot. That's way way past the threshold for being mainstream.

The company I work at has 90% of the desktops running Linux and all of the servers, but then we're an Internet software development company.

Re:they're a little late (1)

Pig Hogger (10379) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518836)

Proof: this summer I was at a birthday party with 11 people, 6 of them female. And all of the people there had at least one computer at home that was at least dual boot. That's way way past the threshold for being mainstream.
Geeks will congregate, so your example is not valid as your sample is too statistically insignificant...

In 2000, gartner wrote (3, Interesting)

WindBourne (631190) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518780)

that by 2005, Linux would occupy about 1-2 % of all web servers, and would not even make it in the enterprise. This study can only mean that Linux has made it in the mainstream.

Re:they're a little late (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518827)

"...the biggest test will be whether it can demonstrate the necessary performance and security to function as a data centre server for mission-critical applications. Leading-edge businesses are generally still in the early stages of Linux deployments but Gartner expects increased..."

Given the above, yes, they are a LOT late! Went to a meeting last night about the major trading houses on Wall Street. Sounds like the biggies ALREADY moved their stuff to Linux. And, as we know, Google started with nothing but Linux. I guess" mission critical applications", like trading high finance and handling the majority of the searches in the internet, have already happened, much to the ignorance of Gartner, apparently. As to the desktop, I suspect a lot will depend on how much graft is given to governmental officials in an ever growing attempt to make Microsoft required. At this point, after the install, most Windows users could use Linux.

Re:they're a little late (3, Interesting)

spiderworm (830684) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518890)

Anonymous Coward said: At this point, after the install, most Windows users could use Linux.

Amen to that. I installed 64 bit FC3 on the computer of some very non-technical friends of mine (a cop and a housewife) months ago and the only problem they've had has been the lack of a Flash player for 64 bit firefox, which in nobody's fault but Macromedia's. My laptop has 64 bit Ubuntu w/ Gnome and the sixteen year old foreign exchange student living with my family that has never seen or used a Linux OS before didn't need any help figuring out how to use it.

How many times... (4, Funny)

mpathetiq (726625) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518615)

Must we hear the same spiel before it becomes the truth?
- to the tune of "Blowin' in the Wind"

Mission Critical? (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518618)

Mission Critical- Does this mean that it is going to be used in military applications- or is this just some buzzwording that is demonstrating that whomever wrote the summary is a middle manager who uses buzzwords to sound bright?

Re:Mission Critical? (2, Funny)

Jesus_666 (702802) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518816)

Obviously it involes rolling a natural 20 while on some kind of quest, as any roleplayer could tell you.

Re:Mission Critical? (1)

veldstra (107520) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518850)

It's probably a middle manager that wants to cover his ass. Personally. I think Linux is already at the level of being ready for mission-critical apps. In fact, I admin systems that really are mission-critical, and I wouldn't trust it's applications to a Windows based server. But with Linux, there's only been one real OS-related problem in two years, and that was fixed with a kernel update.

I agree.. (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518625)

Having just switched to linux and having all kinds of problems, done all kinds of googling, read all kinds of docs and been subjected to all kinds of unhelpful linux geeks in gibberish irc channels I completely agree.

Re:I agree.. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518651)

Thankyou Mr Ballmer, please stick to playing with chairs.

Everything takes 5 years (4, Insightful)

foQ (551575) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518629)

How come every thing is "5 years away" but never seems to get here. I'll bet the writers for the Jetsons anticipated space cars in 5 years too.

Re:Everything takes 5 years (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518777)

The Flying Car by Kevin Smith

(Horns Honking)

Randal: It's times like this it occurs to me that we were lied to by "The Jetsons".

Dante: What are you talking about?

Randal: According to that show we were suppose to be tooling around in flying cars by now. You see any flying cars lately? That's the problem with TV, it always lies to us.

Dante: Yeah, well most of us rational thinkers weren't banking on a cartoon to offer us a viable glimpse into the future of technological development.

Randal: You don't think anyone anywhere is working on the flying car.

Dante: I could care less.

Randal: I gotta believe that there is somebody else out there is thinking about the flying car besides me. Someone who is not afraid to throw their hats over the wall for the good of mankind.

Dante: What's that suppose to mean?

Randal: Throw their hats over the wall. It means committing to doing something. If more people threw their hats over the wall, we wouldn't be sitting here in this mess right now. We would be zooming over it in the flying car.

Dante: I see you have given this alot of thought.

Randal: Kennedy, all right JFK himself. When he was in office, he stood before the world and promised them a man on the moon within 10 years. Thing is nobody had started working on a space program at that point. JFK had no data to back up his claims, no inside into the practicality of space travel. But you know what he had?

Dante: Marilyn Monroe.

Randal: The man had sac. The man had the sac to stand before the world and say "Yo, yo get this we're going to the moon." Imagine, if you and I were the kind of guys who had the sac to stand before the world and say "Get this we'll all be in the flying car by the end of the year.

Dante: Do you know you have a one track mind.

Randal: Hey, what would you be willing to trade for the flying car?

Dante: What do you mean?

Randal: Say some German scientist comes up to you and he says "I have invented the flying car. I'll give it to you on one condition."

Dante: Well, what's the condition?

Randal: He's not going to tell you.

Dante: Then it's no deal.

Randal: The guy is offering you the flying car.

Dante: Yeah, but there is obviously a catch.

Randal: Who cares what the catch is, it's the flying car. You'll have the only one in the world.

Dante: And why is this... German scientist

Randal: Ya, vol.

Dante: Why is he offering it to me for free instead of the car companies instead?

Randal: What is this "Murder She Wrote"? Who cares what's behind the mystery. You going to look a gift horse in the mouth? Just take the car man.

Dante: Not until I know what the catch is.

Randal: Fine, the catch is you got to cut off a foot.

Dante: No way.

Randal: Are you saying you wouldn't cut off your foot for the flying car? You're that selfish.

Dante: It's my foot! How am I suppose to walk?

Randal: What walk? You'll have the flying car. Good God, you could sell the design and engineering secrets to the car companies and be a multibillionaire. After that you could buy like 50 prosthetic feet.

Dante: Which foot, right or left?

Randal: You're choice

Dante: Ok, I'll trade my left foot for the flying car.

Randal: Why your left foot?

Dante: Oh, it's got an ingrown toenail.

Randal: Listen to you. A guy offers you the Fire from Olympus that is the flying car and you trade him a bum foot.

Dante: You said I could pick.

Randal: So it's a deal then, your foot for the flying car. You're sure?

Dante: Yes, I'm sure.

Randal: You can't welch.

Dante: I won't welch.

Randal: Because the whole world is counting on you.

Dante: Why the whole world all of a sudden?

Randal: Because the German scientist held a press conference when he made you the offer. He told the world media once the trade is made. You can do whatever you want with the flying car. Including mass marketing an affordable model for consumer purchase.

Dante: What the hell kind of scientist is this guy anyways?

Randal: One with a lot of free time on his hands and a foot fetish. So are you in? You going to do the right thing here?

Dante: Yes.

Randal: So it's a deal.

Dante: Yes.

Randal: Ok, so then what happens is you find out the guy is going to take your foot off with a hacksaw.

Dante: What?

Randal: And no atheistic.

Dante: Aww, screw that!

Randal: Come on it's part of the deal.

Dante: You didn't say that before!

Randal: Well, you should of paid a lawyer look over the contract. But come on, it only hurts when they're taking the foot off. After that they'll use a local on your stump and cauterize the wound.

Dante: Well why can't I have a local before he cuts it off?

Randal: Because, he is a sick degenerate that likes to inflict pain.

Dante: You said he was a man of science!

Randal: You don't think Einstein didn't like hacking guys feet off but, nobody ever said anything about it because he was one of the great thinkers of our time. But come on man. Take a hit for the team. It's a few seconds of pain for a lifetime of riches and zero traffic.

Dante: Fine, as long as I get the local as soon as he is done cutting,

Randal: So you want the local?

Dante: Who am I, The Marquis De Sade? Yes, I want the local.

Randal: All right.

Dante: Why do you say it like that for?

Randal: It's just the local he gives you, knocks you out and when your out he diddles you pennie.

Dante: Oh, come on!

Randal: Hey man, you made the deal.

Dante: To trade my foot for the flying car, not to be tortured and molested by some mad German scientist.

Randal: And his friends.

Dante: What?

Randal: It's just when he is done with you he gives his friends a shot at you too.

Dante: Deals off.

Randal: What are you some kind of homophobe?

Dante: No, I just don't want to be diddled by some insane German scientist and his friends after they've hacked my foot off.

Randal: Need I remind you, this is for the flying car!

Dante: It ain't worth it.

Randal: See, you're what's wrong with this country, hell with this world. You're always thinking about your own comfort level. Never thinking about the rest of us. This country was built on sacrifice and nearly 30 years of living a life full of selfish foot pampering and intergender intercourse has made you too soft to throw your hat over the wall for the good of mankind. And what's worse is, not only do you ruin it for the rest of us with the flying car, but you completely blow the notion of American nobility in the process. The children of the world have no heroic figure to emulate. So the future of mankind continues on it's downward spiral into entropy and mass extinction until all that was once great about the human race lies buried in the primordial stew to which we'll most certainly return. Thanks to you and ill refusal to reach for the stars and you'll forever be remembered as the sad footnote in the book of life. The wimpy little scumbag who could of breached the chasm of becoming and being. But instead opted to cover his own ass and foot in the process.

Dante: All right! I'll go through with the deal. I'll let the German scientist hack my foot off. Then him and his friends can have their way with me. All for the flying car.

Randal: You would do it with a bunch of guys just to get a car. I thought I knew you man.

In other news... (4, Funny)

C3ntaur (642283) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518634)

Gartner Group was reported to be five years away from becoming a credible news source for the IT industry.

In other news... (3, Funny)

TubeSteak (669689) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518755)

http://www.google.com/search?q="five+years+away" [google.com]

After a quick google search, I've uncovered that:

1. Iran at least five years away from producing nuclear weapon

2. CIA five years away from terror readiness

3. Scotland: Independence 'five years away'

4. Cancer cure about five years away, British scientists claim

5. Dog returned to owners after being lost five years ago

6. Infants' gastro vaccine may be five years away

Sure, it might as well be tomorrow, or ... (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518640)

Just another kooky prediction. Linux already performs just as well or better that Windows, and it does have better security, really.
Now all thet we need is to make it perform better and make it secure. What a crap.
As a matter of fact linux already mainstream in many areas, and for all we know, it may never replace Windows on a desktop.
But predictions are always true, right ...

ZDNet (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518643)

The source of bullshit for years and still counting.

Anonymous Cowards (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518778)

The source of "true" insight for years and still counting.

Gartner is apparently... (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518647)

...5 years behind the times.

Re:Gartner is apparently... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518686)

agreed

BSD and Linux are already mainstream. (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518648)

Many people use them everyday, but they just don't know it. Maybe we should have a "The Internet: Powered by *nix" campaign.

Re:BSD and Linux are already mainstream. (1)

spiderworm (830684) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518783)

Anonymous Coward said: Many people use them everyday, but they just don't know it. Maybe we should have a "The Internet: Powered by *nix" campaign.

Mod parent up! We should seriously do this!

Only 5 more? (4, Funny)

spooje (582773) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518659)

Hasn't Linux for the desktop been 5 years away for the last 10 years?

Re:Only 5 more? (3, Interesting)

AliasTheRoot (171859) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518739)

> Hasn't Linux for the desktop been 5 years away for the last 10 years?

It was only 3 years away 10 years ago.

Ok, seriously... e-fucking-nough (-1, Redundant)

DroopyStonx (683090) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518662)

Year after year after year... "Linux will be mainstream in 5 years!"

We've been hearing that for over 10 years now.

So just stop. Really. It's boring. It's old.

Unless you're posting these articles to humor us... no one wants to read the same useless "studies" that don't amount to jack shit.

Linux is ALWAYS 5 years away from the mainstream (1)

Progman3K (515744) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518664)

So basically, this tells us nothing we haven't already heard.

Wake me Linux is ONE year away, OK?

Nothing ever really gets here. (1)

Pants75 (708191) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518675)

Because by the time that the actual product has been developed, people have anticipated the next thing they want, and they are then waiting for that...The original five year wait is forgotten. In five years gartner will be saying that Linux or OSS is five years from the next thing they imagine they want. Pete

Huh?? (2, Informative)

Pizentios (772582) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518676)

That's odd, i already run mission critical apps on linux! In fact, we only have one windows server, and it's getting phased out next month.

Finally! *My* chance to be an angry Lunix zealot! (3, Insightful)

Otter (3800) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518677)

Five years to mainstream Linux -- I'd say they were being optimistic about desktops. But servers? When is this report from, 1997?

Re:Finally! *My* chance to be an angry Lunix zealo (4, Insightful)

GPLDAN (732269) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518905)

I think it's really important to distinguish from Linux the server platform and Linux the desktop platform, as you say. I run GNOME from an Ubuntu distro on the desktop, and it's.... pretty good. But it's not XP. No Quicktime or WMV plugin means a lot of websites like CNN and Yahoo don't really work well. Xine is ok for DVD content, but overall it's a bit slow and uses more resident memory than what I consider an equivalent XP system does.

Linux as a server has arrived, and has been here for awhile.

What does 'mainstream' mean? (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518678)

Apparently, 'Running the majority of web servers worldwide' doesn't count as mainstream.

Re:What does 'mainstream' mean? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518820)

What does 'year' mean? Human years, Internet years, dog years, . . .

Re:What does 'mainstream' mean? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518911)

What does "mean" mean? Significance, average value, or just that it's spiteful?

Re:What does 'mainstream' mean? (1)

cperciva (102828) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518880)

Apparently, 'Running the majority of web servers worldwide' doesn't count as mainstream.

Does Linux run the majority of web servers worldwide? I know that Apache does (around 70%, according to netcraft), but the only data I've seen on Linux usage (again, from netcraft) puts it at 25% of the ssl web server market -- considerably lower than Microsoft's 40%.

NOT IF I HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT IT! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518683)

With love,
Steve Balmer @ Micro$oft

Its all in the hardware (3, Interesting)

nighty5 (615965) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518685)

When Linux supports the full range of hardware that is currently under NDA's and vendors that refuse to "support" Linux other than supplying tainted binary kernels; then and only then will Linux be ready.

I personally have moved to a mac because I couldnt wait any longer. Will revisit Linux on the desktop in maybe 3 - 5 years.

Re:Its all in the hardware (1)

ScriptedReplay (908196) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518855)

Wait a moment, you lost me. Linux binary-only drivers are bad, but somehow OSX binary-only drivers are ok? Is Darwin a little open or a little closed now?

Re:Its all in the hardware (1)

nighty5 (615965) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518913)

Because since linux is mostly a from source OS with constant changes, the model is totally different. With a mac its done via s/w update patches, if a critical security patch is provided for Linux and an update to the Kernel is required - you could be screwed. But possiby not with other close sourced systems ala mac.

Anyways, the point wasnt totally about closed source, its around vendors fully supporting their drivers and hardware from what is a primiarly a from source operating system.

Linux Always Five Years Away From Mainstream (1)

ayjay29 (144994) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518703)

Linux Always Five Years Away From Mainstream

Gartner's latest Linux 'hype cycle' report shows that open source is always halfway to maturity...

I know a lot of people don't want t hear this (2, Insightful)

MatD (895409) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518706)

But, each enterprise app you run will have different requirements, but as a general rule, big enterprise customers use version of operating systems that are a couple of years old. That means, most of the bugs have been addressed, or are at least well known.

This means that most of the software the current /.'r is running, won't show up in enterprise level distributions for several years. So yeah, five years off doesn't sound that far off the mark.

To paraphrase a Brazilian saying... (1)

ChePibe (882378) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518717)

"Linux is, and always will be, the OS of the future."

Or at least that seems to be the sentiment here on /.

(Note: not flaming, not flaming, not trolling, not trolling - apparently, a disclaimer like this is necessary to avoid a "Troll" or "Flamebait" rating)

No way! (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518719)


A five years from now Windows Vista will be ready for public beta (=final version)!

Get Linux certified now not later (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518757)

Everyday more and more companies are looking at Linux as a means to lower their operational cost. Adding to your documented skills-set with a Linux certification is a very good idea. Here is a brand new series of tutorials to help you learn Linux fundamentals [ibm.com] and prepare for system administrator certification Exam 201. These eight tutorials cover the Linux kernel, file and service sharing, system customization and automation, and more.

It's about to hit the mainstream? (3, Funny)

burtdub (903121) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518759)

<indierock>
Mainstream? Well, I was into Linux before it was cool. I totally dig their older stuff so much better... then they sold out to the man
</indierock>

Grain of salt (2, Informative)

scronline (829910) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518761)

Anything Gartner says about Windows and Linux has to be taken with a grain of salt. A very large grain at that. How can you trust anything that a company that's been paid by Microsoft once to say anything realistic about a Microsoft competitor? I mean, if linux isn't "mature" why is it already in so many networks? I don't know a single ISP that doesn't have atleast ONE linux server. Even those ISPs that are Windows based still has atleast one linux box somewhere. For that matter, why are so many Unix boxes being replaced with Linux? I personally have replaced 2 Windows servers for clients with Linux in the past 6 months. My ISP, though small, has moved from 12 Windows servers to 4 Linux boxes and 1 Windows. But of course it's not stable enough to handle the work? I was getting hacked on a monthly basis with the Windows NT servers. And the remaining server got nailed by the zotob virus even though I had applied the patch. But THIS is ready for the mainstream datacenter? I mean, c'mon. If it wasn't ready there wouldn't be so many Linux servers out there. What all of these "reports" fail to be able to take into consideration is all the White boxes out there. Or for that matter all the servers people have purchased with Windows or without OS all together that get wiped out and have Linux installed. I, for one, have gotten really tired of this kind of BS "news" since it's always putting Linux capabilities down, or DRASTICALLY misreported numbers. I mean.... http://news.netcraft.com/archives/web_server_surve y.html [netcraft.com] Most servers running apache are Linux. Just kind of tired of this misinformation.

Almost 4 years uptime (1, Insightful)

canuck57 (662392) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518769)

Gartner indicates that 'mainstream' use of open source in IT environments may be 5 years away.

I wonder where he has been. I started using Linux IN the datacenter some 4-5 years ago now. One system was up for almost 4 years running DNS and Squid. For DNS, we occassionally patched it, for squid we had a job that restarted it once per week at 11pm on Sundays. It didn't make it to 4 years because the UPS had to be upgraded. We had bets if she would reboot, the na-sayer lost.

And it was a no-name left over PC to begin with. The moral of the story is that it isn't the hardware as would the other OS have you believe.

Not adopting Linux where it is suitable has more to do with an inability to change fo the better and what shares does the CEO/CFO/CIO own.

Re:Almost 4 years uptime (1)

Russ Nelson (33911) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518840)

Sigh. My RH4 server has never crashed. It's had two cpu fans go bad, been unplugged three times, and suffered through 28 hours of no power because of the Ice Storm of 1998. It's been installed since 6 Feb 1996, so in another few months it WOULD have had 10 years of uptime, if you count all the eggs that didn't hatch.
-russ

Another M$ inspired FUD story (1)

guruevi (827432) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518779)

[quote]"the biggest test will be whether it can demonstrate the necessary performance and security to function as a data centre server for mission-critical applications"[/quote] Well, it DID test it's performance and security as a server for mission critical application. I wonder when Microsoft will reach that level. The fact that Microsoft actually has to copy source code from other (Open Source) projects to maintain a stable networking says all. For the users that don't know: Gartner is a Microsoft-funded marketing "research" facility that has sent out FUD-investigations before.

Et Tu, Slashdot? (1)

lbmouse (473316) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518785)

"mainstream use...hype cycle...halfway to maturity...mission-critical...Leading-edge...infra structure applications"
 
Thought we got rid of the bullshit buzzwords [dack.com] during the bubble burst.

Wrong article title (4, Informative)

Decaff (42676) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518786)

In spite of the title, the article does not state 'Linux Five Years Away From Mainstream'. In states that 'Linux is five years away from mainstream use in Enterprise IT infrastructures. This is all about high-end data-centre stuff - a niche use. This article is confusing a very specialised use of Linux with it's general use as, for example, a mid-range server where it has proved it's successfulness for years. There is further confusion where the article mentions that 'many are re-evaluating Linux use' (many turns out to be 5 CIOs out of a panel of 12).

I don't know whether this article is deliberate FUD, or just a confused mess. I suspect the latter.

Bunch of crock. (1, Interesting)

Pig Hogger (10379) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518805)

This is ridiculous.

I've been using Linux for 13 years now (took me a week to download it on a 2400 baud modem!) and I first implemented it in a business setting 10 years ago to connect someone to the Internet.

How long has Windows or DOS or MacOS waited before becoming "mainstream"??? Certainly not 20 years!!!

Back to the future (1)

joshsnow (551754) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518821)

'mainstream' use of open source in IT environments may be 5 years away

$#!+, I must be living in the future @ work. Eclipse, Tomcat, Rehat and Suse, big brave talk about ditching Oracle for postgres - Open Source tooling being first choice every time.

OK, a big part of it is down to $$$, but that's not all of it.

Linux has become mainstream already (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518862)

Look around you and you'll see people switching to Linux(not just server but desktop) to the left and to the right. Most agree that Linux has already become mainstream. It seems like the author of that article is living five years behind our times.

Gardner blabla (1)

Elektroschock (659467) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518865)

Who cares about Gartner? *Websites* are mission critical for most companies. And guess where will you migrate your old Unix IT. Most companies use PCs. And Linux on the desktop is possible now. Many companies are switching esp. in Europe and South America.

What is important now is to get the remaining issues done, fix the 90% solutions. That is, we need more paid developers for key infrastructure projects such as KDE, gcc, classpath, valgrind, etc. It is just a matter of time. We will get openoffice 2 and firefox 1.5 very soon. the desktop monopoly of windows is history.

From TFA (1)

guruevi (827432) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518877)

with Linux being used primarily for WebSphere and infrastructure applications on mainframes and web services on blades and racks.

So Linux will be primarily used for
-WebSphere
-Infrastructure Applications
-Mainframes
-Webservices
-In blades
-In racks

Sounds about all applications in a datacenter: way to go!

Sure Thing (2, Funny)

19thNervousBreakdown (768619) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518878)

In 5 years, I'll wake up after 2 hours of sleep to my AI assistant handing me my rejuvination pill. I'll hop in my flying car and it'll drive me to work at the fusion plant. There won't be much work to do, because the Open Source software that runs the place does so damn well. That's OK though, we'll just play Duke Nukem Forever all day on our quantum computers and go home and fuck our supermodel wives, because geeks are cool now.

Windows users are 5 years away from buying Linux (1)

boyfaceddog (788041) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518879)

Which is to say that:
if (avg($linuxUserBrains) > avg($winUserBrains)){
      $linux_adopt_date >= yr(5);
}else{
      $linux = $useless_os
)

for $useless_os, see any Microsoft product.

The Money Pit (3, Funny)

Solr_Flare (844465) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518887)

Statements like these always remind me of the old Tom Hanks movie The Money Pit. "How much longer to finish the house?" "2 more weeks." "You said that 2 weeks ago!"

Windows Developer: Linux is mainstream now (2, Insightful)

tjstork (137384) | more than 8 years ago | (#13518903)

Why does Linux keep getting faulted for installation issues while Windows gets a pass?
Linux installation is not a reason to avoid switching at a corporate or oem level.

I downloaded and installed Suse 9.3 64 bit on my new dual Opteron the night before last. The installation went really smooth but of course there was a hiccup. I had to install sensors. That involved a trip to a web site, yasting around a bit, etc.

It would be easy to blast Linux for not automatically doing everything and retreat to M$ land, except that Windows 64 bit doesn't even have drivers out of the box for my SATA hard drive and thus wouldn't work at all. If I really wanted fans to work badly enough, and could not get a device, I could write a kernel module myself and all Linux hardware stuff has excellent documentation to at least get me started.

The bulk of all OS distributions are either OEMs or corporate rollouts. OEMS have a team that prepare images for a fixed hardware, and so do corporate rollout centers. Whether you wade through driver compatibility issues on Windows or Linux doesn't matter. Both systems have similar problems and Windows wizards at that level don't really help someone who should already be an expert on the topic.

I would think that OEMs might consider locking down Linux PCs so that end users do not have the root password. So they can't break it...

couldn't resist ;) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#13518909)

2010: Year of the linux desktop!

*runs*

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