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Technology Predictions for 2006?

ScuttleMonkey posted more than 8 years ago | from the crystal-ball-that-we-can-look-back-at-and-laugh dept.

Technology 344

OffTheLip writes "As 2006 fast approaches it's time for some to gaze into the crystal ball of technology and predict what will be hot, what will make a difference in our lives or make someone rich and famous. The Mercury News takes a shot at predicting the coming year of technology. No great revelations but it nice to see clean technologies make the list. The list is light on pure technology and big on trends. Perhaps killer apps are not as important as they once were thought to be." What would Slashdot users put in their top 10?

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Prediction: Slashdot Will Have Even More Dupes! (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342922)

Whoops... that's not new...

Re:Prediction: Slashdot Will Have Even More Dupes! (0)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342944)

This just in: 2006 will be the year of the dupe!

Re:Prediction: Slashdot Will Have Even More Dupes! (1)

AoT (107216) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342961)

I only hope that there will be a wireless thumbdrive.

And if it happens then I hope they will not try to patent it, 'cuz i thought of that shit first.

Re:Prediction: Slashdot Will Have Even More Dupes! (1)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343000)

um ... that wouldn't make a good load of sense. You'd have a wifi adapter in every flashdrive? You can't use BT as it's too slow and even Wifi maxes out at 54Mbps [all while using around 200mAh at 3V]. The cost would be an interesting figure.

Tom

REALLY! (0)

ylikone (589264) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343179)

You'd think that Slashdot being the number 1 site for geeks, nerds and techies, that the site developers could put in a little bit of code to check for dupes or display similarity percentages to the previous years worth of articles. I mean, come on, it's NOT THAT HARD! There really is no excuse for dupes.

A Slashdotter will be the 1st to register .... (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342931)

goatse.eu!!!!

finally! (5, Funny)

nuttzy (877548) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342933)

this is the year we all get flying cars!

Re:finally! (5, Funny)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343025)

2006 will be the year Duke Nukem Forever comes out!

Nope, it's the year we find out that the Pentagon has been secretly breeding sharks with lasers and the CIA has overthrown the government of Atlantis, to be replaced by a demoracy, while we drill for oil offshore of .. Hold on a second, someone at the door

[NO CARRIER]

Re:finally! (4, Funny)

HardCase (14757) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343071)

Ahem. I predict that most predictions will be wrong. Thank you.

I Want My Personalized Entertainment (5, Interesting)

moresheth (678206) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342935)

I'm anxious to see dynamic (digital) paper, like with newspapers and junk, but I doubt we'll be seeing them this year.

Most likely the number one spot will be a-la-carte television and music downloading. Not just to compete with piracy, but just because that's what people want.

Re:I Want My Personalized Entertainment (5, Insightful)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342953)

Problem with e-paper ...

1. Monthly service for radio link servetude: $30
2. Airtime charges to download the news: $10
3. 911 access fee ... on a piece of paper ... : $1
4. License fee: $7
5. Newspaper subscriptions: $15
6. Knowing you'll be leached to death by yet another inadequate technology: Priceless. :-)

[yes this is a rant about how cell phones cost too much and do so little]

Tom

Check out e-ink (3, Interesting)

castoridae (453809) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342974)

E-ink, an MIT Media Lab spinoff, has been working on this since ~1997. They have products to market, although you can't yet get your local paper on it... :-\

http://www.e-ink.com/products/matrix/imaging_film. html [e-ink.com]

Re:I Want My Personalized Entertainment (1)

Nethead (1563) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343048)

Hell, they already have this at Hogwarts!

Oblig Simpsons quote (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342937)

The domestication of the dog continues unabated.

easy (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342939)

microsoft makes a boatload of cash while their demise is predicted on slashdot,

linux is _almost_ ready for the desktop,

and duke nukem forever will briefly reach beta, only to be pulled

I predict (4, Funny)

TubeSteak (669689) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342942)

That we will have _____ wonderful technology in 20 years.

Because for some reason, everything wonderful always seems to be 20 years away.

20 Years You Nimtard Mod (1)

TubeSteak (669689) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343174)

For whatever idiot with mod points who modded me offtopic, I refer you to this current Wired article [wired.com] about developement of an AIDS vaccine
The failure in the last couple years of one of the more promising vaccine candidates has bred some frustration. The United Nations' top HIV/AIDS official acknowledged earlier this year at a conference that it was no longer realistic to hope that the world will meet its goal of halting and reversing the spread of the pandemic by 2015. A British delegate to that conference predicted it might take 20 years before such a vaccine is created.
I will now repeat my prediction:
We will have _____ wonderful technology in 20 years.

And if you think a vaccine isn't a 'technology' then you're woefully ignorant of the extensive computer modeling and testing that molecules and potential drugs go through before they even reach the beginning stages of trials.

Duke Nukem (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342943)

2006 will be the year Duke Nukem Forever comes out!

Re:Duke Nukem (0)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343015)

2006 will be the year Duke Nukem Forever comes out!

I predict it will be the year after the year after the year after the year after the year after next year.

Maybe.

Definitely possibly.

Beyond a speculative doubt.

Re:Duke Nukem (1, Funny)

jasonditz (597385) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343035)

AD 2101... War was beginning

What Happen?

Somebody release Duke Nukem Forever.

What!

time machine (0, Troll)

Quick Sick Nick (822060) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342945)

time machine. go back in time, before i read this useless headline....

Trusted people, of course (5, Funny)

TheNoxx (412624) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342946)

Although Microsoft didn't do so hot with their "trusted computing" initiative, they'll do much better with "trusted people". Check out a future issue of Playboy: "Hottest Places to Have Your RFID Chip Inserted! Please Your Woman and Keep Your Nation Safe at the Same Time!"

Video and all-in-ones (5, Insightful)

Diordna (815458) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342948)

I think that most innovations will come in video and handheld form. Things will get more consolidated very quickly, and the handheld will become even more central than it is now. I hope to see something like an iPod Video that can store movies at screen sizes creater than 320x240 just so they can be hooked up to TVs and played back anywhere. Also, the outcome of Apple Intel machines should be interesting - one place for OS X, Windows, and Linux to all run at the same time.

The Future is here (2, Informative)

TheTopher (879626) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343098)

hope to see something like an iPod Video that can store movies at screen sizes greater than 320x240 just so they can be hooked up to TVs and played back anywhere. You already can. If you want TV quality output, you have to save it to the iPod as that quality and the iPod will convert to 320x240 in real time when you use its screen. If you use an AV adapter and set the iPod to "video out" it will play it in the quality that you saved it as. Seems Apple has some fortunetellers working in R&D. http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/A ppleStore.woa/72703/wo/Na399iwmd8cv2dV70ja18EmHd0d /2.SLID?mco=543CBB30&nplm=M9765G%2FA [apple.com]

Re:Video and all-in-ones (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343104)

Actually, the video iPod can do 300x400 video which is generally considered to be standard TV resolution.

Re:Video and all-in-ones (1)

IntlHarvester (11985) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343165)

Personal digital video players have been around for a few years now, you know.

I've made this point before, but with Apple's control over the market, it makes sense for them to slow "innovation" rather than accelerate it. Recall the gigantic flame wars here back in 2004 when the Apple crowd was parroting Steve Jobs and vehemently insisted that Apple would never, ever, *ever* introduce a Video iPod? Well, of course, Jobs was just stalling on video to maximize the upgrade revenue. So, something like a wide-screen video iPod is an obvious prediction, but only when the existing market becomes saturated.

Nothing new under the sun (this year) (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342950)

What are the odds of a new technology coming out of nowhere and becoming popular? Look at 2005 -- just an expansion of existing tech. Torrents become more popular, more bandwidth means people exchange more videos, bird flu will continue to be overrated and containable and there will continue to be few deaths, wifi will be more popular, more telephony, and so on.

It's evolution baby, not revolution, and that's the way I like it :)

Re:Nothing new under the sun (this year) (2, Funny)

Lehk228 (705449) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343151)

well duh revolution comes out in 2006

My prediction (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342954)

I predict that by the third quarter of 2006 I will finally be able to drive to work in my flying car.

the year of... (1)

Garabito (720521) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342955)

Linux on the desktop?

Re:the year of... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343007)

Where have you been?
That happened in 2004 ummm... No wait, 2005... No wait, ummm...
Hold on, I'm kinda confused, but I remember I read it on slashdot...

I predict (0, Flamebait)

jbplou (732414) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342956)

Computers will become twice as powerful and so expensive only the 6 richest people in the world will be able to afford them.

Re:I predict (1)

saltydogdesign (811417) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343031)

Dude, you're on the Internet. It's not that hard to get your Simpson quotes correct:

Frink: Well, sure, the Frinkiac-7 looks impressive, don't touch it, but I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them.

Computer Power (1)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343056)

Computers will become twice as powerful and so expensive only the 6 richest people in the world will be able to afford them.

By the last quarter of 2006 quad core 64 bit Athlons will be common place at Circuit City and be preinstalled with Windows Vista. ExtremeWhizzoHot Tech will review and find it 10% faster than an Athlon 64 3000 with XP.

GoogleRate (5, Funny)

zymurgy_cat (627260) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342957)

Google will come up with GoogleRate, a neat application that will automatically search for, record, archive, and then verify all these claims and predictions that everyone makes.

People will then be able to quickly find out how accurate companies, newspapers, etc. have been in the past when they now say that X will be popular this year or that the nano-wireless-widget market will grow from $2M to $100 billion over the next 5 years.

Re:GoogleRate (1)

castoridae (453809) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342999)

Sounds a little like Tradesports.com [tradesports.com] . They broker bets on non-traditional items like political events. Doesn't seem like a stretch for them to set up a pool on when a particular technology will reach a particular rate of adoption. Turns out that the (dynamically determined) odds that come up do tend to be a pretty good indicator of the likelihood of events.

flying cars? (2, Funny)

Unknown_monkey (938642) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342960)

No, fuel cells! This is the year that they are only a year away! But maybe given all the stem cell research we could get monkeys flying from my butt. I predict digital ink will be big with lots of press releases and upcoming projects in future years. And this will be the year that a slashdot editor goes power crazy and tries to ransom sites with the threat of a slashdotting, and that he will fail miserably due to two other editors posting dupes of the story that editor #1 is threatening to post. The lack of faith in the negotiation will lead to long term hostility against the slashdot editors for posting duplicate stories on the same page causing multiple slashdotting. The end story will be that the submissions come from host servers with high per GB fees that had their customers intentionally slashdotted. This will cause mass user support for **Beatles. And in the Soviet New Year, technology puts out a list on you!

Re:flying cars? (1)

Lehk228 (705449) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343006)

Plug Power just sold 80 fuel cell units on december 15th so it's too late to be betting on them

Doesn't Matter (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342964)

It doesnt matter because... we'll read about it several times over here on slashdot, thanks to all the dupes :-P

thoughts on OfficeWeb & Human Proteome Folding (1)

cwtrex (912286) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342967)

I don't see this happening until the internet proves to be a bit faster as well as reliable. Yes, some companies have already started doing this, but very few. I don't see this taking off (like e-commerce take off) until at least 2010.

As for "Stem-cell research advances," I can only hope this is true. But I wish that they would also tie in the research which was in part taken up by grid.org for "Human Proteome Folding Project." Since that project is nearing completion, it would be great to hear that they have already started analyzing the data and will start rolling out some medical advanced due to that project. But I have a feeling both the stem-cell research advances and Human Proteome advances will be in research only and not in any beta medical trails.

I Call BS on All These Predictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14342969)

Everyone predicted social software and VoIP would dominate 2005, well guess what? They were wrong!

Web 2.0 and AJAX are what defined 2005.

How about (5, Interesting)

BCW2 (168187) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342970)

Flash drives get priced competitivly with hard drives of the same size?

Re:How about (1)

ShaneThePain (929627) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342986)

Last I saw, 4GB flashdrives cost LESS than 4GB hard drives. Atleast, I think i saw that.

Re:How about (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343026)

I bet 128MB flash drives cost a lot less than 128MB hard drives. It is called supply and demand. Now when I see 80GB flash drives that cost less than 80GB hard drives, I will be impressed.

Re:How about (3, Interesting)

EvanED (569694) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343160)

It's also that hard drives have a high overhead cost. No matter what size the hard drive, you need some controlling stuff, a motor to drive the head, the head itself, and a hermetically sealed container. Compare that to what has to be a very small amount of electronics and a couple cents worth of plastic that goes with your typical flash drive.

That said, I think it will be a LONG TIME before you see solid state parts be priced competitively with hard drives. Looking at Pricewatch, a 2 gig flash card is a little over $100. From Circuit City, there's a 2 gig one for $99.99 after $30 savings and $70 rebate. I paid only a bit more than that (maybe $120?) for a 250 gig Segate a couple weeks ago when my older hard drive decided to go meet the great head of light entertainment in the sky. That means that even if hard drives make no priceing improvements over the following year, flash would have to drop about 50 times in price. Given that about 14 months ago I got a 120 GB hard drive for about the same price (btw, this isn't the one that went kaput), that means that hard drives are a little less than doubling in size for any given price every year. If this trend continues, that means that flash must drop in price 100 times -- that's two orders of magnitude! Do you *really* think that's going to happen?

Secondly, what would you do if flash DID? You couldn't replace your hard drive with it; flash has a much lower life span for writes. With a typical file system, you'd probably see failures much sooner than a typical hard drive failure. At the very least you'd have to find one that's meant for flash drives so you don't burn out frequently written-to areas. (E.g. inode blocks, journal areas. It seems a log-structured file system might be called for here.)

Re:How about (1)

EvanED (569694) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343185)

With a typical file system, you'd probably see failures much sooner than a typical hard drive failure. At the very least you'd have to find one that's meant for flash drives so you don't burn out frequently written-to areas. (E.g. inode blocks, journal areas. It seems a log-structured file system might be called for here.)

I take this back, perhaps. Drives can do what's called wear leveling automagically under the file system's nose (and transparently) and even out where the writes fall, so you wouldn't necessarily need to use a special purpose file system.

From what I'm reading it probably is theoretically possible to make a flash hard drive that will last plenty long enough.

(I still hold that the cost will be more than a typical hard drive for a long time to come.)

Re:How about (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343140)

1) Where the fuck can you buy a 4GB drive nowadays? I don't think any store around here carries anything under 80GB as you only get less space (not enough, that is) for the basically same price - and often they don't even have something that small in stock. I don't think anything smaller is being manufactured anymore either.

2) Comparing HD sizes of the mid-90's to flash? I don't see the point, really.

3) Of course the small HDs cost an arm and a leg for what you get. No matter what capacity the HD has, it still needs an enclosure, motor to make it spin, heads, bearings, platters, controller (several chips - to control head placement, timing, A/D conversion, etc). Smaller drives may need less platters/heads, but tiny drives cost probably 90% as much to produce as the biggest ones (expensive for small units, cheap for large ones). Flash on the other hand... It's only a bunch of transistors - and their amount is directly proportionnal to the amount of memory (cheap in small quantities, but expensive in large quantities). Perhaps you should have compared price/GB in their normal available sizes instead? (HD prices are ~50$/GB or so; flash is MUCH more expensive!).

No way! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343090)

Don't hold your breath, it's not about to happen. Flash just can't be produced at 100$/200GB unlike HDs. They'd have to come down in price by over 100 times to be comparable - that's asking a bit much (a price reduction of over 99% that is). The drive is a few moving/metal parts (only cost so much) and some somewhat-inexpensive electronics, Flash would require billions and billions of NMOS transistors which cost a lot more to produce (and perhaps draw a lot of current and create heat at such quantities). Flash is coming down in price, perhaps by 2x to 4x per year, but nowhere near as much as it would take for that to happen (HDs are also increasing in size, although not as quickly).

Re:How about (4, Insightful)

ottffssent (18387) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343135)

Why?

400GB of flash would be bigger, heavier, and probably slower than 400GB of magnetic storage. It would also be less reliable. You might be able to get decent performance in a lower-power, quieter device, but even with price parity, why would you want flash with all its drawbacks?

The winchester hard drive really deserves some sort of award. Second only to the microchip, the hard drive has been the most successful technology product of the past 20 years, I would say. Consider that its evolution in terms of capacity has far outstripped that of the CPU, while its price has remained low. The same basic principles have scaled from the largest several-hundred-pound devices of old to the 19 gram Seagate ST1, and from the early 1MB drives to current half-terabyte drives. These devices can be found in all but the smallest of consumer electronics and in the largest of mainframes. Only the integrated circuit has shown similar technical improvements and wider applicability, yet the hard drive gets little respect, even within the computer industry. Sad.

VOIP (1)

jonathan3003 (797920) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342971)

Since the article mentions internet telephony, I figured the killer app will be a dupe prediction [slashdot.org] detector :)

Predictions... (5, Interesting)

Wyatt Earp (1029) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342973)

Advancements in artificial limb technology driven by the Iraqi Military Operations
Advancements in stripping the psychotropic effects of drugs like Ketamine and X for use as pain killers, driven by the Iraqi Military Operations
A video card that cracks the $1000 US price point
More hybrid and bio diesel technology from the big Automakers
F/A-22, Eurofighter Typhoon purchases get cut, F/A-22 or the F-35 programs might get totally eliminated by the US DoD
Quad core AMD and Intel server chips
US program to put GPS in all cars becomes a political hot issue
UK program to track all cars does not become a political hot issue

Painkillers (4, Interesting)

TubeSteak (669689) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343066)

I agree with the need for more/better pain killers

One of the main problems with the current meds is their massive potential for abuse.

I predict this [opioids.com] will take off in 2006
To counter abuse, drug makers are developing ways to reformulate prescription painkillers. Purdue Pharma in Stamford, Conn., which makes OxyContin, is thinking of adding a second drug, called an opiate antagonist, that neutralizes the effects of the opiate.

The antagonist would be walled off using polymers or some other sequestering technique, said Dr. David Haddox, the company's vice president of health policy.

A patient who swallowed the drug would get full pain relief, as intended. But if someone tampered with the pills, the antagonist would be released.
...
A second approach is to mix in a chemical irritant like capsaicin, the main ingredient of hot chili peppers, said Dr. Woolf, who has a patent on the idea.

Because the esophagus and stomach do not have many receptors for hot peppers, patients could take the pills as prescribed and find relief, he said. But the lining of the nose and cheeks are loaded with pepper receptors, and anyone who ground up such a pill would get a burning feeling in the chest, face, rectum and extremities, as well as paroxysmal coughing.
It doesn't really advance the effectiveness of painkillers, but it'll be a very very effective stopgap measure to basically kill the street trade in these meds.

Doctors will also be able to perscribe powerful painkillers to the patients who need them w/out constantly worrying the DEA will investigate them for possibly overperscribing pain meds.

BTW - the second method (with capsaicin) is really fucking evil. The Dr. describes the pain of snorting/injecting it here [blogspot.com]

Re:Painkillers (1)

Wyatt Earp (1029) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343150)

I have alot of strong pain meds to deal with the migraines from a Stroke I had in April. My Doctor and I got a good laugh out of the capsaicin option. As someone that has to go through hoops for the meds that help me because of the asshats who abuse them, I say Ya Capsaicin!

GPS .... (1)

ylikone (589264) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343164)

Why would having a GPS in your car be a political hot issue? GPS's just tell YOU where you are located on the planet, they do NOT transmit that information to anybody else.

More hybrid and bio diesel technology... (1)

cliveholloway (132299) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343177)

More hybrid and bio diesel technology from the big Automakers

This is a scary one. The UK can produce enough biodiesel in an environmentally friendly manner (waste cooking oil) to supply 1/380 of its road transport fuel. After that, the most common form of biodiesel supply is oil palms. And this supply is an environmental disaster [guardian.co.uk] in itself - huge forests felled and burned to create space for the trees, peat bogs dried out.

God knows what kind of destruction will take place if this "environmentally friendly" fuel supply takes off in the US.

cLive ;-)

Re:Predictions... (1)

Zantetsuken (935350) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343198)

F/A-22, Eurofighter Typhoon purchases get cut, F/A-22 or the F-35 programs might get totally eliminated by the US DoD

the Raptor is supposedly crap compared to some of the nicer Russian jets, the only reason why the US would win in a fight against the 2 is US has more money to produce planes, and they only have, what, ONE squad of F/A22's. it's possible Congress just cuts the funding for the whole Raptor and F35 program anyway, along with the (X)M8 rifle, OCSW ABG (25mm airbursting grenade) machine gun, and a host of other programs of the sort, just for the dipshit reasoning that "We have something that works now, it's been proven for 30-40 years, why stop using this ancient pos technology and weapons when there is much better stuff available?"

Apple (1)

Joey Patterson (547891) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342977)

I predict that, on January 10, 2006, Apple Computer will release an Intel-based iBook [thinksecret.com] .

Fusion! (4, Interesting)

headkase (533448) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342980)

2006 will be the year we finally achieve a sustained controlled fusion reaction! My 1970 copy of the new book of knowledge annual edition says it's just around the corner! Let's hope its not around the corner for another 35 years as we really do need it....

Re:Fusion! (1)

ShaneThePain (929627) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343023)

I doubt it, fusion is only being pushed because of people's fantasy that some miracle technology is going to replace oil. nothing will replace oil, nothing at all. when oil becomes too expensive, there wont be anything to fall back on. not fusion, not fuel cells, not even fucking coal. in short: were fucked. http://www.peakoil.com/ [peakoil.com]

Re:Fusion! (2, Insightful)

Frumious Wombat (845680) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343131)

Yes, but will that get us closer to Fusion-powered Ramjets?

But seriously, I'd predict better photovoltaics, thermoelectrics, and fuel cells. None of this will power anything bigger than a lawn-mower, but it will look great in the lab.

On the other hand, what won't look better will be designer bioweapons. Not that they'll be released, just the capability will give us one more thing to worry about.

Someone will realize that with Google's increasing suite of information organizing technology, that they can become a privatized CIA/NSA. Watch for new bloggers who actually do data mining, rather than off-their-meds rants.

And to stay on topic, controlled nuclear fusion will be right around the corner.

Re:Fusion! (3, Funny)

FooAtWFU (699187) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343132)

Actually, I believe that we already have "sustained controlled fusion" reactions. What we'd like are sustained controlled fusion reactions which produce more energy than they consume.

The better battery? (1, Redundant)

Presence2 (240785) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342990)

My hope is that 2006 will be the year a cheap, easily manufactured portable power cell will become popular. Rechargeable.. disposable.. who cares, just make it better then what we've been using for the past 20 years. Limitations in power supply is really starting to be the limitation for all our fancy high tech gadgets. We can put 3000 songs on ipod.. but you can't play them all. We can put the latest movies on a psp or portable dvd player, but they will barely stay on long enough to play some of today's epics. I can't think of any laptop that can last longer then what.. 8-10 hours? Pathetic!

Re:The better battery? (3, Interesting)

superpulpsicle (533373) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343134)

Speaking of PSP, this is the year sony handheld division must deliver or die. I don't see it sticking around for the sake of playing DVDs if they can't make some great games. FF7 advent children might drive some sales, but ultimately this is where the road split.

Mac OS X on 10% of PC's (1)

4D6963 (933028) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342991)

My prediction for 2006, Mac OS X 10.5 on 10% of PC's. http://www.osx86project.org/ [osx86project.org]

OK, more a wish than a prediction

Predictions (5, Insightful)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14342994)

  • 1. Someone will challenge Moore's Law as not being true any longer.
  • 2. Cell phone batteries will need longer life as people listen to music and watch video on them.
  • 3. Nano physics will be all the rage, but nobody will still have made anything practical with them.
  • 4. RIAA will continue to hound people who really don't affect their bottom line, then blame the loss of music sales for the expense.
  • 5. Howard Stern will not have the new customer draw Sirius is betting on.
  • 6. Red Wine will be found not to actually have any real impact on reducing heart disease when they find a bunch of drunken italian doctors made it all up.
  • 7. Video Games will continue to be ballyhooed as more realistic than ever, but movement will still look terribly wooden.
  • 8. New processors, mother boards, video cards will all come out and amazingly the top of the line will cost what the top of the line has cost for the past ten years.
  • 9. Moore's Law will be reaffirmed.
  • 10. Cheezy Poofs and Coke will be declared heart-healthy by firms in Plano, TX and Atlanta, GA, and the media will not question it one bit.

Re:Predictions (4, Interesting)

slashname3 (739398) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343062)

2. Cell phone batteries will need longer life as people listen to music and watch video on them.

Which will result in cell phones the size they were back in the 80's, satchels weighing about 8 pounds.

This will also result in a record number of car wrecks as more people are found watching their cell phones while driving which leads to several states banning the use of cell phones in cars.

There will be a large number of complaints by cell phone users that even with 200 channels available there is nothing worth watching.

There will also be a project started to port mythtv to these new video capable cell phones.

Re:Predictions (4, Informative)

equallyunequal (877918) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343125)

Howard Stern is definitely drawing new customers to Sirius radio. I work at Radioshack and my entire district is sold out of all Sirius recievers and we have waiting lists. 75% of the customers say they are buying because they wanted Howard Stern.

It's been in the technology cooker for a while now (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343002)

Last year saw a new Debian Stable release... I think this year we'll finally see some sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!

It could happen

predicton for 2k6 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343008)

> Perhaps killer apps are not as important as they once were thought to be." What would Slashdot users put in their top 10?

Perhaps in 2006 we can stop using the phrase killer app

Show me a boy @ seven and I shall show you the Man (3, Interesting)

Leontes (653331) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343009)

Wikipedia will continue to grow, and content will continue to become more refined and generally better. Facebook will grow, and options for adding non-school connected individuals will be introduced before the end of the year. Myspace, Friendster and Liverjournal usership will decline. The television shows available on itunes will increase ten fold, some regular free television program downloads will become available by march. Political Speeches will become regularly podcast. A c-span like service will become reasonable popular on itunes podcasting service. Macintosh computers will sell more computers in this year than in the last two, combined.

Hot tub high-tech. (1)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343014)

From an area of my recent interest (new job) I'd say that hot tubs will go really high tech this year. Already they do both hot and cold tempertures, have hi-fi stereo, flat screen tv, etc. I guess they'll have full Internet access and video games within the next year. Pretty cool.

3D iPod (1)

yet another coward (510) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343020)

3D iPod!!!

Re:3D iPod (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343067)

[insert joke about anything being in human space being 3d, then insult about OP only being able to afford a 2d (read:jpeg) IPOD]

Number 7 (3, Interesting)

rolfwind (528248) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343038)

7. Even small start-ups go global

Three major forces are driving the rise of the mini-multinational -- start-ups that are launched from the get-go as global operations.

First, there's the promise of lucrative foreign markets, which are growing more quickly than in the United States. Some overseas opportunities are now even bigger than here, such as cell-phone sales in China.

Second, U.S. companies can lower their costs and boost profits more quickly by outsourcing work to places like China and India, where labor is cheaper.

Finally, the Silicon Valley model of nurturing start-ups has spread to other regions around the world. Venture capitalists are opening offices in those countries and are getting more comfortable with helping to nurture companies in those foreign markets.

Many companies, seeded by Silicon Valley venture capital firms, set up headquarters in the valley, where they employ high-end engineers, marketing professionals and senior management.

But they have major operations in Bangalore, India, or Shanghai, China, and increasingly elsewhere.


I thought it was easier - the herds who wants to make a fast buck in the stock market now jump on any tech stock hoping it will be the next eBay or Google. In short, there's a lot of demand for investments, but good ones are in short supply That might explain why so many stocks are so overpriced now (according to Buffett). But it should also be pointed out that most newcomers have a poor business plan and eventually are going to fail.

Blake Ross's ten predictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343044)

I vote for Blake Ross's "Ten predictions for the new year [blakeross.com] " as the most hilarious list of predictions for 2006.

For example (I picked this one out for the Slashdot crowd): Due to a glitch in Windows Vista, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will mix up his notes at PDC '06 and declare: "Developers, developers, developers....We're going to f*%ing bury those guys!" Nineteen will leave on stretchers with furniture-related injuries.

1996: HD DVD Player 1997: HD DVD Recorder (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343045)

As a person who lives in 2 countries I had to buy the first DVD players on the market for both zones, then another two with recording capability. Then I found a recorder that can record and play my zones (multi-zone, thus illegal).

I guess the next big thing will be to throw away again what I have and purchase the DVD player that can play in High Definition. Then later, buy one that can record too. (No doubt they could make a recorder right away, but there is no business in there.)

I am awating the next HD DVD standard will force me to do. Will zones still be present? With 1920x1080 resolution for HDTV around the world, will I need to buy a different model just like now with the PAL and NTSC models?

One thing is for sure: I can start selling my normal DVD movies on Ebay before they become obselete.

Delayed Vista release... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343046)

maybe 2007.

Oh, and therefore, more flying chairs around the Redmond campus.

2006 Predictions Here Too (1)

jg21 (677801) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343051)

There are multiple sets of technology predictions just publisheed here [sys-con.com] too, at the AJAX Developer's Journal site. Amazing how AJAX is a-booming!

What I really wish (4, Funny)

selil (774924) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343060)

1. The DMCA is overturned entirely when all the chief justices get threatening letters from RIAA for watching jib/jab videos. 2. The Patriot Act is declared dead in the water when it is found that undeclared wiretaps were actually against the FISA judges. 3. Video on demand systems requiring no physical media and available on multiple formats cause independent media moguls to become instant zillion-aires and they buy up studios by the dozens converting them to creative commons. 4. The really cool ultra slim portable gadgets found in Japan and Europe are actually released to North America versus gray market. 5. The hottest TV show involves high geek factor when a three guys, and a kid are marooned on a haunted island being bombed by the Pentagon, while a forgotten civilization forges forward trying to find a lost city in another galaxy with wierd looking zombie dudes who eat flesh play pool on the island with the guys and kid. 6. Video game ESPN sports takes on a new twist when they electrify the chairs with 100,000 volts. 7. Windows XP SP4 is released when nobody upgrades to the "late" Vista when no OEM produces a machine with a terabyte of disk space, and a 20Ghz processor required to do anything but load the OS. Bill Gates bursts into flames when demo-ing Vista from a microwave leaking processor. 8. Open Source Advocates actuall publish an agreed upon coding standard for all languages and it is ignored by all. 9. NASA launches a man to the moon sans rocket as it is determined that no rocket is safe therefore they get rid of the rocket and use a giant sling shot. 10. The Cubs win the world series.

100% accurate predictions (1)

Darius Jedburgh (920018) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343061)

Faster computers, hard drives with higher capacities and faster networks. Batteries that last (slightly) longer. New releases of Linux. New patches for Windows. Several new rounds of iPods. Google release more software. Security holes in Windows and Internet Explorer. And new web protocols will be announced.

Prediction: economic colapse (4, Insightful)

argoff (142580) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343068)

My prediction is that technology predictions will be cut short because the US economy is getting ready to fall off hyperinflationary debt cliff. A rare condition where costs and prices become orders of magnitude larger while at the same time pay and employment become orders of magnitude lower. With over leveraged housing debt on a housing market that is getting ready to fall, too much credit card debt, too much corporate debt, too much trade debt, too much municipal debt, too much state debt, too much federal debt - and 270 TRILLION with a T in derivatives contracts that must settle wether thru default or thru printing up money. It wouldn't take too much in the modern efficient US economy for things to snowball and between the FED and a potential panic out of foriegn dollar reserves - it could really be a very very ugly global colapse. IMHO, people should really consider gold in their portfolios this year, there is a reason why it has been going up for the last 5 years, and recently those reasons have become a lot more immenent.

Re:Prediction: economic colapse (1, Insightful)

Mad Marlin (96929) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343126)

... bla bla bla ... the sky is FALLING! ... bla bla bla ... so buy GOLD!

My prediction (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343078)

I know without a doubt that the long awaited Duke Nukem will finally be released bundled with Longhorn.

my two cents^H^H^H^H^Hpredictions (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14343081)

1. Early in December, a Sony EVP will say, "Honest, we are pumping out PS 3's out as fast as we can... we sure wish we could have more units out there on the shelves right now."

2. Microsoft proclaims the September 2006 Vista launch to be a stunning success, despite yawns and considerable harping by the trade press. Just before year end, Jeff Raikes announces that a service pack will ship in summer 2007 with a number of enhancements and improvements in the areas of security, performance, and robustness.

In Bizarro World (2, Interesting)

daemonenwind (178848) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343086)

- PS3 sales exceed all expectations as Sony delivers sufficient consoles and games at launch, while the user base ignores the glaring fair-use issues inherent to the Sony product line.
- PalmOne resurges as the owner of the cell/MP3/Palmtop space by incorporating WiMax and Sun microprocessors.
- Apple's move to Intel chips causes the biggest brand loyalty seachange in modern history as disgurntled users throw their WinTel boxes off of buildings.
- Lawsuits will be brought against cities offering WiMax by local users who are hacked over their unsecured connection.
- AOL manages to rebirth itself as a dominant Internet player by selling residential access to Internet2.
- Dell actually "gets off the pot" and begins to sell AMD desktop/laptop systems.
- Elliot Spizer raids the home of Bill Gates, finds a Linux machine running the automated home features, along with the full archive of goatse images as framed art in a hallway.
- Europe splits off from the Internet As We Know It, China joins in, and most left-wing American political websites go strangely quiet on what comes to be known as "Internet Classic".
- The DMCA is overturned by a housewife in New York state appealing a fight with the RIAA all the way to the Supreme Court. Her arguments before the justices become required reading at most major law schools.
- The "Third-World Laptop" will be widely used....to grind grain. See also, "The Gods Must Be Crazy".

killer apps still needed (1)

slashname3 (739398) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343092)

There are several killer apps still needed to make Linux a main stream system for the average user.

1. visio replacement (dia is not quite there yet) 2. Income tax software (non-web based turbotax) 3. group calendar system 4. DVD/video editing packages 5. better wireless driver support

Re:killer apps still needed (1)

tomstdenis (446163) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343106)

More drivers is about the most important thing.

Bring the hardware, software will follow.

Of course this would require the hardware manufacturers to

a) open up their interface with documentation

or

b) write a GPL driver and give it out.

But they won't because they're stupid and they think knowing how to make a wifi device send a frame in memory is "leaking how th design was implemented". Like knowing the encoding for the MUL instruction tells you how an AMD64 processor works ... :-/

SPEW!!!!

Tom

mIRC might finally get upnp (1)

ZenJabba1 (472792) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343095)

As has been requested from the writers of mIRC for nearly 3 years, mIRC will ship with upnp to deal with the nightmare of DCC ports.

All I want is.. (1)

earthstar (748263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343100)

A total slashdot design makeover using techniques like CSS, so that its soft 'n' sweet on eyes.

Apple (1, Funny)

JanneM (7445) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343102)

Apple will encase a piece of rock in white, translucent plastic, name it iCon and immediately sell five million of them for $249 each to fans solemnly declaring that Apple has redefined the meaning of amorhpous silicates.

Simple. (4, Funny)

Tatarize (682683) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343103)

Wimax becomes huge.
OpenOffice.org media campaign speeds adoption, achives 30% penetration.
Britney Spears remarries.
AJAX becomes even more popular making the internet kinda suck.
UPnP applications become almost universal.
Firefox penetration hits 25% before IE7 comes out and knocks it down to 15%, even though IE7 sucks.
Pope Benedict XVI dies.
Democrats take the house, gain in Senate.
US troops remain in Iraq throughout the year.
Bush's approval rating reaches 30%.
2006 Hurricane Season exausts name list again.
Somebody creates an effective non-website based bittorrent network.
Pi proven to be normal.
3 new higher prime numbers found.
Bird Flu kills about a dozen people and is stopped completely.
"The third man of the fire will empower the forces of the blue prince." - Deemed to be quite vague but fits several situations that occur.
South fails to rise again.
Majority of scientists backslide on existence of dark matter halos.
RIAA/MPAA go even more apesh!t.

The latest advance from Diebold (5, Funny)

Belseth (835595) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343105)

Voterless voting machines. No longer will the average american be burdened with the inconvience or respnosibility of voting. Simply register and you're done. Diebold will even see that you get to have a say in elections after you're dead. Field tested last year in Ohio the system is now ready for widespread use just in time for congrssional elections next year. Sit at home in comfort and watch the results to see who you voted for election night.

The Bad News (3, Interesting)

Lucas Membrane (524640) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343107)

1. Radar range beam weapons for crowd control. Not lethal but completely inhumane.

2. Lethal drone aircraft the size of insects.

Only one thing is certain (3, Funny)

dangitman (862676) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343113)

Chairs will be thrown.

OK, maybe two things. Thrones will also be chairs.

Some predictions (2, Funny)

jd (1658) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343146)

  • Wireless optical interconnects [lightfleet.com] replace switches in clusters
  • Polarized light video displays (3D in color, and it's pretty damn good, even if you do need polarized glasses) in the home
  • DVD vendors finally concede defeat and make their products genuinely interchangeable, even when using a home recorder
  • SCO completes the transformation into a Ringwraith and adds Frodo to the lawsuit
  • Someone develops a completely functional computer that runs Linux and Fedora Core, using only chip specifications from Open Cores [opencores.org] and programmable components. The computer then outsells at least one well-known PC manufacturer.
  • SGI reaches crisis point and can't continue. It is bought by OSDL, the Altix is moved to the Opteron and Linus Torvalds sets a new record for kernel build times.

Satellite radio will boom... (2, Funny)

ylikone (589264) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343170)

Satellite raadio service will be all the rage... until people stop and figure out that they are paying monthly to *listen to the radio*.

Men will be replaced! (0, Offtopic)

jeremycec (639648) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343173)

Guys, our worst fears are coming true. I always heard that if women could make babies without us and figured out a way to open jars, we were not long for this earth. Well, check out this [nationalgeographic.com] and this [amazon.com] . Doh!

Predictions huh? (2, Interesting)

sane? (179855) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343180)

OK, some random predictions to keep in with the theme.

1) At least on major country or trading block will attempt large scale taxation of the Internet and Internet commerce. This will be used as a cover for the removal of the last vestiges of anonymity, with the sop of removing spam in the same breadth. The approach will spread worldwide as governments find it a no brainer.

2) Parallelisation will continue as not only to all normal machines become SMP boxes, but the flexibility grows to combine and split apart all the computer power you possess. The PDA/mobile phone won't be a separate item, it will become only a part of the wider entity that you can carry with you. Increasingly accessing and synchronising with the whole entity will become as norm.

3) Wireless will go long range as mobile phone companies attempt to get over the still birth of 3G with WiMAX like services.

4) TV will go Internet, and very quickly both transmission and country borders will look quaint.

5) DRM will be added to everything, and just as quickly broken. Lies will be told and individuals will be taken to court.

and finally, but not least

6) Bird flu will hit home, preceding by a dry run of the first wave of infection. All those that have been playing down its impact will point to the first wave and ignore the second. They will die and the world that emerges from 2006 will look very different than the one we have now. The double wammy of the shock of peak oil will send the world into an introspective spiral that will shatter certain expectations.

This Will be the Year... (1)

Greyfox (87712) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343187)

of the cybernetic dildo. Giving a whole new meaning to the term "pop up." A couple of startups have tried to get into this field earlier, but I guess the VCs were still too scared from the dot-com bubble burst.

Heh heh OK, maybe not. What I'd REALLY like to see is for the Heliodisplay [io2technology.com] people ramp up production. Depending on how well it works, that technology has incredible potential and a lot of applications suggest themselves as soon as you look at it. I hope it pans out...

Top ten predictions as Google URLs (1)

Anonymous Cowdog (154277) | more than 8 years ago | (#14343189)

http://universe.google.com/ [google.com] [finally making Hubble images easy; follow-on to Earth]

http://audio.google.com/ [google.com] [logical extension of current offerings]

http://calendar.google.com/ [google.com] [a top productivity app]

http://todo.google.com/ [google.com] [productivity app, maybe 37signals purchase?]

http://contacts.google.com/ [google.com] [productivity app, maybe LinkedIn purchase?]

http://teach.google.com/ [google.com] [for teachers, organizing materials]

http://learn.google.com/ [google.com] [for students of all ages]

http://bookmarks.google.com/ [google.com] [del.icio.us type service]

https://storage.google.com/ [google.com] [personal storage space]

http://welcometotheinterweb.google.com/ [google.com] [something, I don't know what, for the next billion Internet users]

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