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If DVD Is Dead, What's Next?

Zonk posted more than 8 years ago | from the holographically-projected-jurassic-park dept.

Media 652

uglysad writes "The Age has a piece discussing the fact that, from the home entertainment industry's standpoint, the DVD is dead. So what is next? From the article 'It will come as a shock to film fans who have spent their Christmases stocking up on their movie collections, but the technology industry is in agreement: the DVD is dead. Consumer electronics companies have begun to show off what they believe will be the next generation of home video technologies. But despite the common belief that the DVD is history, the industry is split over what the next step should be.'"

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whatever (5, Insightful)

tfcdesign (667499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413690)

Seems a little hasty to make such a claim. VHS isnt dead yet. The only media I can think of that is dead is the 8-Track and 70 RPM.

Re:whatever (5, Funny)

gid13 (620803) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413726)

And let's not forget FreeBSD...

Re:whatever (1, Offtopic)

tfcdesign (667499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413798)

Is that storage media? I thought it was an OS. Isn't it part of Apple OS X?

Re:whatever (3, Informative)

gid13 (620803) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413962)

Yes, FreeBSD is an OS. It was a joke about some Slashdot trolls that keep proclaiming one of the BSDs dead (I don't honestly remember if it was FreeBSD or not). Apparently the joke is somehow flamebait. Shrug.

1. Exaggeration 2. ??? 3. Profit! (5, Insightful)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413794)

Seems a little hasty to make such a claim. VHS isnt dead yet. The only media I can think of that is dead is the 8-Track and 70 RPM.

Exaggerating death throes isn't meant to end sales, gods no. If that suddenly happened Bush would probably have to slash taxes and then tell everyone to take that $300 out and buy a stack of DVDs (except anything he finds morally repugnant, such as gay cowboys). The MPAA would have to suddenly circle the wagons, up-end the Bucket 'O Lawyers and proclaim the fall-off is the result of rampant piracy.

Nope, nothing like that.

What they mean to do is push the new HD-DVD or Blu Ray technology, even if it's not on the store shelves just yet. What's desired is to whip up a frenzy -- to make it a self fulfilling prophecy.

Anyone remember (the late) Richard Pryor as the Wiz, changing the colours? Red is dead, wouldn't be seen in green, etc.

Re:1. Exaggeration 2. ??? 3. Profit! (4, Interesting)

tfcdesign (667499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413901)

In that light, I see iTunes' tv and movie downloads, the new Google downloads, and several others wiping out DVDs sooner than another storage media.

Re:1. Exaggeration 2. ??? 3. Profit! (2, Interesting)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413929)

In that light, I see iTunes' tv and movie downloads, the new Google downloads, and several others wiping out DVDs sooner than another storage media.

You could very well be right. It's probably only a few more years that fixed media will be relevant.

i say, were can i find the buggy whip shop?

Indeed (3, Insightful)

TheSpoom (715771) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413801)

I'm in the technology industry, and I don't think the DVD is dead. Hell, we just got a new DVD player with our surround sound kit. Does anyone see Blockbuster renting out something more than DVD?

This guy is making stupid generalizations to draw attention.

70 RPM? (2, Informative)

commodoresloat (172735) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413854)

If you mean 78 RPM, it is very much alive, if gasping for air. I have an old wind-up Victrola and about 250 78s of old blues and jazz that I still crank up from time to time. The sound is crap for an audiophile of course but it has its own rickety charm. The best thing is you don't have to plug a damn thing in. Came in handy when there was a blackout - I'm also into candles; half the neighborhood showed up at my place with booze because it was the only place on the block with light and music. When the power came back on, we continued to party, but I admit we did switch back to 33.3 RPM for the music :)

Re:70 RPM? (1)

dmt99 (123849) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413918)

Of course, just because a technology is usable, it doesnt mean it isnt deprecated, or dead.

Re:70 RPM? (1)

tfcdesign (667499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413930)

Yep, 78, - sorry about that. Can you still buy new pre-recorded 78s? I didnt know that.

DVD is going to stick around (5, Insightful)

Schlemphfer (556732) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413867)

>The only media I can think of that is dead is the 8-Track and 70 RPM.

I think for purposes of this argument, we can fairly say that if it's not given at least an aisle at Best Buy, it's dead. LP's are dead as a doornail. VHS tapes will be soon. But I can't imagine the DVD section at Best Buy going away within the next three years. Keep in mind it's in the interests of the electronics industry to have DVD die off as soon as possible. And despite the fact that the MPEG-2 encryption was a rush job and has long since been blown away by newer codecs, DVD's remain an outstanding technology.

Whatever the next standard is, it won't have the clear advantages over DVD that DVD had over VHS. The several hundred million consumers who already own DVD players and stacks of DVDs have no urgent reason to jump to the next standard -- not until most of these people own high-def Televisions. DVD will be with us for some time.

Re:DVD is going to stick around (2, Insightful)

angle_slam (623817) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413899)

But I can't imagine the DVD section at Best Buy going away within the next three years.

Three years ago, you probably could have said, "I can't imagine the VHS section at Best Buy going away within the next three years."

Re:whatever (2, Informative)

hackstraw (262471) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413868)

The only media I can think of that is dead is the 8-Track and 70 RPM.

Youngun. 33.3333, 45, and 78 is/were the standard record formats. I've never heard of a 70 RPM one.

Back on topic, I thought that the article title is very sensationalistic. I thought they were going to talk about something new or whatever, but they just talked about the different higher capacity DVDs (blue ray and HDDVD) not something like crystalline hologram media or whatever.

I don't see DVDs as a format going anywhere anytime before or after CDs. I mean, my DVD players/recorders can do both. The two new formats are the same form factor and I would imagine that they will be backwards compatible with regular DVDs and CDs as well.

Honestly, since I was in high school in the late 80s, I though that we should put music on chips like game cartridges of the time. No moving parts, protected from bad elements, etc. I guess that they were and still are way too expensive for mass duplication. I mean, the movie and music industry people are already poor and living in the streets because of the cost of the current media right?

Actually, when media is going to be free, I guess we will just transfer files over wireless to our car and homes and whatnot. I would kill to have my computer music collection not have to be put onto CD to listen in my car. And NO an MP3 player is not an option for me because I don't have any MP3s.

Outmoded tech (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413871)

What about LD or BETA? I own several LDs not sure what I'll do when that player breaks. But at least they can be copied to video tapes. Should be possible to scan them into a divx file as well, if I had a video capture card..

The problem is that we are all investing in media which we will most likely not be able to view in a view years. I had to buy a new DVD player this year because several of my new DVDs would not play on my older player. Presumably because of slight changes in the software.

DVDs for the most part can be hacked and backed up. But what about new technologies. Will this be possible with DVD-HD or will all of the media purchaced turn into an expensive and ineffective paper weight in 10 years when our players break and the tech is outmoded?

Re:whatever (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413885)

They're dead as far as high def movies go unless you enjoy compression artifacts.

Re:whatever (5, Insightful)

LordSnooty (853791) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413890)

VHS isnt dead yet.

Maybe so, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to purchase new mainstream titles on VHS. And as for the niche releases on a smaller scale, you've no chance.

I hope that this time, the average consumer rises up and says "no". I think the reason that everyone happily bought into DVD was that it was such a huge leap from VHS - so many more features to make the switchover worthwhile. It was maybe 15 years since VHS started to become popular. This time, less than 10 years since DVD hit the big-time, what are the big reasons to switch? Increased space (more naff behind-the-scenes docos and dull commentaries)? Hmm. High-def? That's probably the only decent advantage you could point at.

And strangely enough, what's the hardware industry currenly falling over themselves to sell us? HDTVs. I truly hope that this time, the average Joe sees what we have seen for many years, that is the content producers repeatedly selling us the same stuff on different media.

Re:whatever (1)

kfg (145172) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413909)

How right you are:

http://members.tripod.com/~Edison_1/id7.html [tripod.com]

(Warning! Do not click link unless you have popup blocking enabled or if you object to Slashdoting a Tripod site)

KFG

Ah, well, you misread the tone (5, Insightful)

Julian Morrison (5575) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413969)

Don't think: Bones with a tricorder in hand saying "he's dead, Jim". Do think: Al Capone gritting his teeth and snarling "That no-good punk is dead. Dead, ya hear me?".

The movie industry hates DVD for the same reason it hates unadulterated CD: the pirates have cracked it so thoroughly that the studios might as well post the disk images on mininova themselves.

uglysad (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413691)

the submitters nick is a fitting description of his summary.

Dead? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413693)

Could have fooled me

just like hdtv (4, Insightful)

ronchie02 (690654) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413694)

DVD is dead just like we're being forced into HDTV in... oh wait, it's smoke. How many people do you know that just got a DVD player? It's hardly dead.

HD-DVD (3, Insightful)

Manip (656104) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413695)

If HD-DVD 'wins' the battle then current DVD isn't at all dead... HD-DVD is backwards compatible thus allowing companies to continue to produce old style DVDs on the cheap while also supplying higher quality content or longer (in video length) disks.

Re:HD-DVD (4, Informative)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413750)

If HD-DVD 'wins' the battle then current DVD isn't at all dead... HD-DVD is backwards compatible

Blu-Ray drives will most likely be backwards compatible as well. From the Wikipedia article [wikipedia.org] :

While it is not compulsory for manufacturers, the Blu-ray Disc Association recommends that Blu-ray drives should be capable of reading DVDs, ensuring backward compatibility.

The whole "DVD" on the end of the name is just a ruse to get people to buy into the standard. There really isn't anything I can think of that makes HD-DVD superior to Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray, OTOH, has many positive features including the ability to wipe the disk without scratching it, and larger data capacities.

Re:HD-DVD (1, Informative)

tricorn (199664) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413844)

The article is definitely slanted. "Sony's rival format does away with traditional red lasers in favour of more efficient blue ones", but that's true for HD-DVD as well. Mention that Sony suffered a blow when Microsoft announced they will support (an external) HD-DVD on Xbox360, but didn't say anything at all about Blu-Ray on PS3, nor that Microsoft's reason for supporting HD-DVD is to try to hurt Sony in their console war.

Claiming that HD-DVD is cheaper than Blu-Ray is misleading. Start-up costs to build new equipment to produce Blu-Ray discs is going to be more expensive than modifying current DVD equipment to produce HD-DVD, but that is a short-term thing.

What they completely failed to mention is that the big hang-up is over the copy-prevention, even though both sides are using essentially the same thing.

Re:HD-DVD (2, Insightful)

ilyaaohell (866922) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413845)

The one major point that is always cited when talking about HD-DVD is the fact that manufacturing is going to be cheap. Enjoy your $30 and $40 Blue Ray movies, though. I'll be sticking to DVDs and my fully-functional SDTV set for MANY years to come.

Re:HD-DVD (1)

ratsnapple tea (686697) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413876)

Heh. I wrote that section of the article myself, actually, and I was just talking out of my ass in the hope that someone would come along later to improve the parts I didn't know. Obviously that never happened.

Re:HD-DVD (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413754)

HD-DVD Isn't exactly backwards compadible. What makes it BC is the fact that a movie producer can put in a non-HD layer into a DVD so it can be read in an old-style player. It isn't true backwards compadibility like a Playstation 2 playing Playstation games or a USB 2.0 port allowing usb 1.0 devices.

DVD, HD-DVD, whatever, but NOT downloads... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413792)

I will go so far as to update my DVD collection to whatever format for HD TV wins (the format wars), but, only those movies I really like and I WILL NOT get my movies that I like by any form of downloads where I do not have a personal copy (disk. holographic cube, whatever), but it must be a physical media, not this download and it self-destructs after 2 viewings garbage. One other thing, the movie producers may want to put in all those extras (on the HD-DVD's because they will be so large in storage size), put in all the edited out material from the theater versions so we can tell the DVD player to re-assemble the original 3 to 40 hour movie without all the annoying editing that the studio bosses (who don't know anything about making movies) so the studio bosses can get stuffed!

I think you understand the purpose (1)

Joseph_Daniel_Zukige (807773) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413855)

of this article.

If you don't support HD-DVD, you won't be able to play your old DVDs!!!

ATTN: Industry Types (5, Funny)

croddy (659025) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413700)

It's dead when we say it's dead (not you). Now please, kindly return to the factory and make us some more DVD's.

Thanks!

Re:ATTN: Industry Types (1)

ackthpt (218170) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413833)

It's dead when we say it's dead (not you). Now please, kindly return to the factory and make us some more DVD's.

I should say so! I was about to place an order for the complete Black Adder!

Article summary (3, Insightful)

Anakron (899671) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413704)

DVD is dead because device manufacturers say so.
Your options are
  1. Blu-Ray
  2. HD-DVD
Nobody wants a format war.

Re:Article summary (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413749)

Wrong... there is a third option: Holo-DVD. Much more capacity, and faster i/o rates. What's not to love?

hooray, DVD is dead! (2, Funny)

manavendra (688020) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413705)

But oh, wait! we *know* its dead, but we just don't quite know what killed it yet..

Re:hooray, DVD is dead! (5, Funny)

FirstTimeCaller (521493) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413824)

we just don't quite know what killed it yet.

Oh, but I think that we do! And we even know who... it was DVD Jon [wikipedia.org] , on the Internet [dataloss.nl] , with a DeCSS decryption alogithm [wikipedia.org] .

Re:hooray, DVD is dead! (1)

sedrules (643301) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413874)

Sounds like somthing the enterment industry would want you to think. They seem to want a new standard that they can chrge you more for and build in drm so you cant exercise your fair use rights.

Am I the only one... (2, Funny)

caffeinatedOnline (926067) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413707)

who gets just a little squeemish at the thought of high def porn?

Re:Am I the only one... (1)

erbmjw (903229) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413746)

ROFLMAO ... that didn't occur to me!

Re:Am I the only one... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413880)

Bah! Not until we can actually see, in crisp detail, the death throes of each individual sperm, desperately wriggling about, trying to make sense of some foreign area of the female anatomy that bears scant little resemblens to the slides of the supposed target zone they were all shown in scrotum boot camp.

Re:Am I the only one... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413893)

who gets just a little squeemish at the thought of high def porn?

No. It just means that HDTV porn requires a little more "exclusive" girls than DVD. I'm sure the major production houses will manage to find girls worthy of HDTV, your local porn producer probably not. Maybe they can turn a nice margin on it as well, unlike regular def porn which has gotten a real commodity.

Are you trying to say (1)

Joseph_Daniel_Zukige (807773) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413903)

If the resolution is high enough, you might as well quit messing with the fake stuff and go after something real?

Re:Am I the only one... (1)

HolyCrapSCOsux (700114) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413913)

I'd rather Hi-Def Porn than the Smell-o-vision that Emiril keeps jabbering about on his shows. *shudder*

Re:Am I the only one... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413955)

Just get some beers when you rent the porn--that way you can turn down the resolution until it's at an acceptable level.

VHS has just finally died off (2, Insightful)

winkydink (650484) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413714)

Though you can still buy players and people have a ton of tapes. I see this more as wishful thinking on the part of consumer electronics mfgs (who'd love for you to have to buy yet another player format) more than anything else

Dead technology, but... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413717)

The technology is now obsolete but DVD has roots that run too deep in the general consumer population for it to disappear. It will stay around for a good 5 or 10 years, as more and more people gradually start to get frustrated that the news looks better than their movies.

Pah! (0)

Toby The Economist (811138) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413718)

If DVD is dead, then I'm an Arcturian megadodo.

Unlikely (2, Interesting)

Professor_UNIX (867045) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413723)

Since DVDs look absolutely fantastic on my 110" projection screen I don't see how they're going to make much improvement. DVD quality is head and shoulders above broadcast quality analog TV that HDTV is replacing so I'm not sure where the market is for HD-DVD since it's only a minor bump in quality.

Re:Unlikely (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413775)

If DVDs look fantastic on a 110" screen you have serious vision problems and should go to an optician as soon as possible.

Re:Unlikely (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413816)

..."since it's only a minor bump in quality."

If you can't see a five- or six-fold increase in resolution either your equipment or your eyes suck.

Re:Unlikely (1)

Itninja (937614) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413821)

I heard the same argument about tapes vs CD's back in the late 80's. Some claimed their super-ultra-chromide-whatever tapes sounded 'perfect'. Perfection is relative. I thought my 4-head VCR was king poop, until I watched my first DVD. Ahhh, binary, it always brings a smile to my face.

Re:Unlikely (1)

gvibes (579654) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413875)

Do you stand 48' away or something? Going from 480p to (presumably) 1080p should be easily visible (assuming the source material is decent).

HD is NOT a MINOR bump in quality... (1)

TheRealStyro (233246) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413898)

You should really go and check out the quality on an HD set. I thought my 51" was great until I saw a 57" with HD feed. Now I can't wait for BD-/HD-DVD players and media to hit the shelves.

HD is a small mountain in quality from SD DVD and a large mountain from SD TV.

Re:Unlikely (1)

hackstraw (262471) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413925)

Since DVDs look absolutely fantastic on my 110" projection screen I don't see how they're going to make much improvement.

I never thought I would say this, but DVDs don't look good on my modest 43" HDTV after getting 1080i HDTV content. Decent upscaling projectors are what, over $10k a pop. I don't have that kind of cash to blow, and I like to be able to watch TV in the daytime or with lights on sometimes.

Re:Unlikely (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413941)

HDTV is not replacing Analog TV, Digital TV is. And this is only for over the air stuff(local broadcasts), it has nothing to do with Cable or Satilite(Already Digital)signals. Analog/Digital is how the signal is transfered. HDTV is the quality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television [wikipedia.org]

Re:Unlikely (1)

Tony Hoyle (11698) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413970)

Depends on the DVD.. some DVDs look fantastic on a large screen.. others are horrid.

Even a horrid DVD is streets ahead of anything broadcast over terrestrial or sattelite (we don't have hidef broadcasts in this country yet).

I've seen a few of the hidef films and they're definately better (inc. Gladiator BEV which is supposed to be the benchmark 'best' HD film), but the difference basically disappears once you're more than a couple of feet from the screen... depends on how much of a perfectionist you are.

It's definately not the same as comparing VHS to DVD - that was a jump from 260 lines to 575 lines vs. a jump from 575 lines to 720 lines.

I don't think so (5, Interesting)

grasshoppa (657393) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413729)

There is only one thing the next generation has going for it; Capacity. In everything else, DVD has a distinct advantage. It's cheaper, it's entrenched and it's easier to work with.

Personally, I think the "industry" is in for quite a shocker this year, as bluray and hddvd barely make a blip on the radar. Same with next year.

Re:I don't think so (1)

MightyMartian (840721) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413884)

I agree with your assessment. I'll wager that we really won't see much consumer movement until at least X-mas 2007. There will be the early adopters, of course, but they're going to find it a bit of famine. This sort of headline is just an attempt by the industry to get everybody thinking "gotta have that latest DVD technology". In short, nothing more than industry spin.

slashdot users (1)

master_meio (834537) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413731)

A bunch of fat, goateed, cubicle shit.

So, I guess adult life hasn't changed much from high school, has it? Slashdot should change its slogan from "news for nerds..." to "people that go to junior college"

ha ha ha ha hah ah ah a ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

PC competition for "I-Minor" MAC? (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413735)

When Stephen Job announced his "I-Minor" McIntosh last year, it really caught my eye. Wanting to buy or build a small computer for my already cramped breakfast bar, I started pricing out similar hardware. The results startled me. Most of the configurations I found cost more than the humble US$499 of the "I-Minor", often much more. To match price with MAC I had to configure with a much bigger shuttle-style case.

So here's my question. What computers are currently on the market to compete with this? When my wife asks for the "cute little I-Minor McIntosh with dotMax Tigger OS® that MAC just invented", what PC can I buy instead?

i love this (1)

insertwackynamehere (891357) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413740)

>> the DVD is dead. So what is next? how can something in the technology world be dead if there is nothing replacing it? seriously, you can't just declare something "dead" just because, and then ask what should replace it. It makes my head hurt reading that statement. Things die because there is something to replace it, and obviously due to the two sentences above being right next to each other, there isnt anything. sure blu-ray and its competition or whatever will eventually replace dvd, but there are still format wars and no one really knows which will win. the fact one has to ask "whats next?" means that the format isnt really dead. anyway, its not like people go out and buy dvds still or anything, that would be crazy.

BSD says (0, Offtopic)

jhines (82154) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413758)

Welcome to hell, have a beer.

DVD is dead (-1, Offtopic)

Psx29 (538840) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413767)

And so is bsd right?

I swing both ways baby... (1)

Itninja (937614) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413768)

Here's my solution to the (apparently) dead DVD and upcoming race...er..I mean format war.
Double sided discs. Blu Ray on one side and HDDVD on the other. Eh? Anyone?

Re:I swing both ways baby... (1)

sulli (195030) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413781)

Both are multi-layer. A "flippy" disk with both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray would be too thick to put in the drive.

My dvd is not dead (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413769)

Just came from the TV room and the DVD as the VHS are working fine
you scare me

Re:My dvd is not dead (1)

SIGFPE (97527) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413840)

Your VHS isn't working fine.


VHS images have always looked awful and have always looked significantly worse than the quality of the image your TV can display.

They wish... (2, Insightful)

DocSavage64109 (799754) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413772)

The industry wants to kill DVDs since it is so easy for people to rent and copy them now days. Maybe they think they'll make more money with (Uncrackable)DRM'd replacements.

Fine. (4, Insightful)

Yahweh Doesn't Exist (906833) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413777)

if the entertainment industry says DVD is dead I won't buy any more.

what? you don't have the replacement out yet? well, you guys just fucked yourselves then didn't you.

Industry is in for a surprise... (5, Insightful)

GeorgeMcBay (106610) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413779)

The issue that is far, far bigger than HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray and yet the industry doesn't seem to understand is that a standard DVD is more than good enough for most people. As with the CD before it, the DVD hits a sweet spot where aficionados might want improvements but the average user just doesn't care enough (if he is even able to discern them). The industry is being lulled into a false sense that the masses want HD DVDs because of the success of HDTVs, but I believe that has more to do with people wanting larger screens that take up less real estate (LCD, Plasma), than it really does with the higher resolution (for the masses, not for everyone). Also, people expect to buy new TVs on a cyclical basis and it is much easier to get them to run through one purchase upgrade than to upgrade their entire old media collection.

Someday HD DVDs (of one format or the other) will be the norm, but I'm quite sure this is going to be a much slower process (far slower than VHS->DVD IMO) than the studios seem to realize and will be driven more via a trickle of sales as people replace old TVs and DVDs with new models (which support old and new formats). In the meantime, they better keep cranking out those Plain Old DVDs.

Re:Industry is in for a surprise... (1)

Xugumad (39311) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413948)

I think this is a brilliant point. I have an HD LCD TV, and an upscaling DVD player ($100-ish, doing the exchange rate calculation in my head), and it does almost everything I could ask of it. I can see the difference between HD and SD with good source material, but really, how much of the stuff out there is good source material?

DVDs took off like a rocket because they provided a significant leap in quality, a massive reduction in space used, the ability to easily put extras in with your video and random access (if only companies would stop thinking UOP was a good idea, anyway).

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray's only advantages are you can fit more on a single disk, and that the material can be HD. How many people can spot and really care about the difference? Of those, how many are willing to go back and replace DVDs they've probably been buying for the last few years?

I think HD disks will gradually grow in popularity, but we're talking over the new few decades, as people start buying new movies/TV shows in HD formats, rather than another drastic changeover like with DVDs...

Re:Industry is in for a surprise... (1)

angle_slam (623817) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413956)

As with the CD before it, the DVD hits a sweet spot where aficionados might want improvements but the average user just doesn't care enough (if he is even able to discern them).

I disagree. The difference between SACD and CD is subtle, unless you have a really good stereo system. The difference between SD and HD is huge and very noticeable if you have a 50"+ screen. For example, the hotel I was staying in just a few nights ago had a big plasma screen in the kitchen. The Rose Bowl was playing in HD and it looked great. The next morning, the local news was on in SD. Unless you were on crack, there's no way you didn't notice the difference between HD and SD.

The consumers will decide. (1)

Spazntwich (208070) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413790)

It doesn't matter what the fucking tech pundits or even tech companies say. As long as there is a demand for regular old DVDs (And there IS, and there will be for quite some time), somebody will step up to the plate and deliver.

Consumers will rebel hard against movie studios trying to force them into HD-DVD and Blu-ray, content to stick with their "good enough" and cheap current solution.

DVD is dead, long live DVD! (3, Insightful)

msauve (701917) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413799)

They only want us to think it's dead for two reasons, first, content cannot be securely protected (like they hoped). Second, you can now get a player for twenty bucks (same as in town), so there's little profit left.

Holographic storage coming soon... (1)

TheRealStyro (233246) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413804)

According to a blurb in the Feb issue of CPU magazine, a 300 GB (with 20Mbps transfer) drive/disc should be available later this year. Probably overkill for a DVD killer, but could work for large collections (LotR, Star Wars, Alien and Star Trek - all in HD 7.1 multi-language audio track with all special bonus features - $1,999.99).

TO THOSE WHO VOTED NADER 2000 (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413814)

Admit it: you fucked up. Big time. There was a huge difference between Bush and Gore. Voting for Nader was a vote for Bush. You just didn't have the courage to accept the ugly reality of politics in 2000 because as an over-read liberal, you wanted your candidate and your party to be more authentic than the plastic show that made you gag. You were too pampered and vain to lower yourself to vote for Gore, and you're the reason why America is in the shit-hole it's in today.

Re:TO THOSE WHO VOTED NADER 2000 (1)

insertwackynamehere (891357) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413853)

i dont get it.. did this have a point, am I missing something? did nader claim to invent the DVD like gore claimed to invent bush's internets? or was it just random spam I'm looking into too deeply :P

whatever... (1)

nuckin futs (574289) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413827)

If DVD is dead, whatever the porn industry supports next will be it.

Nonsense. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413839)


The last time I walked into my neighborhood video store, I noticed that 90% of the movies are in DVD format. (The other 10% are VHS.)

I can safely ignore all this nonsense until the day I notice that the percentage of DVD (or compatible) discs has dropped below 80%. Then I'll start paying attention to what's replacing it.

Not Dead Yet (3, Interesting)

the eric conspiracy (20178) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413843)

I am sure that as time goes on DVD will be replaced by something better. BUT consumers will profoundly ignore anything that is engaged in a format war!

It took many years for DVD catalogs to reach their current levels, and there are a number of titles that are still not available in DVD format. Plus a good DVD player looks pretty decent on a HDTV. So there isn't a huge incentive for customers to buy any new HD format. With all this there is little or no incentive for consumers to buy into a new technology - especially if it comes with a price premium.

There is a good chance that a format war will delay the acceptance of HD resolution disks for years. It might even fatally wound the the new formats - like it did with SACD and DVD-AUDIO.

In the meantime people like me are using Netfix instead of buying DVD's - why own something that will eventually become obsolete anyway.

This Article is Spam (1)

dch24 (904899) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413847)

How do big companies spam the rest of us? Advertising. They can't spam our inboxes (unless you're hotmail). They run ads on TV, so we buy TiVos. Then they do product placements, but the shows and movies tank because we're not fooled.

So this is their strategy now (IMO):
1. Run articles saying DVD (and Blu-Ray) are dead.
2. Force people to buy an HD-DVD for their Xbox.
3. Sell new games in HD-DVD format only.
4. Profit.

Blu-Ray is struggling to keep up despite backing from Hollywood studios and a wider support base among electronics firms. Companies including Philips and Panasonic announced new players at the electronics show, but they are not due in shops until at least the second half of this year and are likely to be expensive.

Another blow came when Microsoft chairman Bill Gates confirmed his company would be making a plug-in HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 games console.

But it won't work: someone (soon, hopefully!) will produce a combo drive that can read HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Hurry up, please!

Not If It Means a New TV.... (1)

Wellerite (935166) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413856)

The HD-DVD standard will offer compatibility with the discs you already own, and TV addicts will need to splash out on expensive high-definition TV sets before the difference is noticeable.

Well, actually "TV addicts" will have to splash out on a HDMI-compliant HD TV if they want to play any HD-DVDs (not just to get the resolution improvements) because the players only offer HDMI output. I don't think people will be buying a new TV for a small picture quality improvement - look at all the fuss over people having to buy new TVs or Digital->Analogue coverters when analogue TV signals get shut down. Besides, they'll have to make room for the behemoth [aviransplace.com] somewhere.

Re:Not If It Means a New TV.... (1)

pappy97 (784268) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413910)

"Well, actually "TV addicts" will have to splash out on a HDMI-compliant HD TV if they want to play any HD-DVDs (not just to get the resolution improvements) because the players only offer HDMI output"

Not necessarily. This week, (reported on Slashdot) Bill Gates announced that XBOX 360 would have an optional external HD-DVD ROM drive.

Surely you'll be able to watch HD DVD on the XBOX 360 with this drive using the current component video hookup (And I seriously doubt that they would down-rez the output simply because it's component. We are talking about XBOX 360 here, not some regular stand-alone DVD player)

I don't see the need to get a TV that accepts HDMI. You may, if you don't already have one, need to get an HDCP-compliant TV, but that is a different issue.

Just start Carving everything in granite (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14413858)

It's worked for thousands of years, no formatting problems, the technology is always around to read it, and it's hard to erase, hard to copy, it just isn't very portable.

Not the industry's decision (2, Insightful)

Thaelon (250687) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413859)

When people stop buying DVDs in signficant numbers, then and only then will DVD be dead.

Just because they want us to buy more, newer, less reliable, more expensive shit doesn't mean we will.

DVD: No longer profitable.. well almost (1)

MROD (101561) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413866)

I can see the reason why the hardware industry want DVD to die as it's got to the point where it's a commodity product. There are so many cheap machines on the market that it's impossible to make a reasonable profit on the devices. There is a very, very small market for high-end players for those with lots of money, but the mid-range has disappeared, where most of the profit could be made. The only solution is to generate a new market with a new product, for which they can get a large margin, at least initially.

Now, the extertainment industry are probably not that bothered either way. OK, if there's a new format for which they can sell yet another version of their product to the same customers then they're for that, but even if there isn't, they can still sell the new products very profitably, thank-you very much.

Motion Picture Companies Back Blu-Ray... (1)

chewties (879407) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413869)

So why is there any debate as to which format will win? If a vast majority of the content producers are on board with Sony, why would anyone in their right mind purchase a HD-DVD player? Toshiba and MS don't have a leg to stand on here. As for DVD being dead, I think the statement is a few years premature.

It's dead?! (1)

rune2 (547599) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413887)

Has Netcraft confirmed it?

Next Is... (1)

umbrellasd (876984) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413894)

"The Last Temptation of the DVD" followed by the surprisingly successful, "The Resurrection of DVD" (aka "I Was Only Mostly Dead").

*DVD is dead (1)

commodoresloat (172735) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413897)

It's true, the blowhards in the entertainment industry confirm it. So just put your entire DVD collection into a box and send it to me; I'm working on a museum exhibit. Yeah, *DVD is dead at 55, found in its home choked to death with a pretzel. Red ink flows like a river of blood. Truly an American icon.

I mean, come on, this whole story is a troll!

Holographic storage (1)

Baldrson (78598) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413900)

The big problem with these linear recording systems is they're too susceptible to being side-tracked by scratches that run tangential to the tracks. A holographic form of storage could avoid this.

At some point you have to stop worrying so much about storage capacity and start worrying about how robust your storage medium is.

Of course, the guys who sell DVD's for a living may like the idea that people find themselves having to buy new copies of the stuff they already bought (because it is encrypted and they can't make backup copies).

I should be so healthy... (3, Insightful)

SpecBear (769433) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413908)

The technology industry agrees that DVD is dead? Alrighty then...

How many companies have stopped producing DVD players?

How many stores have stopped selling DVDs?

How many DVD pressing factories have shut down?

Where can I buy a next-gen media player (HD-DVD, Blu-Ray, whatever)?


WTF do they mean when they say DVD is dead?

Unreliable storage mediums (2, Interesting)

msid (943658) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413916)

DVD and CD are two very, very unreliable mediums for storing data. And for some people storing data is an important part of their lives. Besides that, most people treat DVDs and CDs very clamsy. You don't even know which scratch is going to be "the lethal one". On the other hand I would appreciate the fact if some people would bother creating reliable hard drives that do not die unexpectedly. At least to have a way to warn the user before they die. It is awful to live with the fear that one day, you don't know which, your HD will die. And S.M.A.R.T. is not always reliable.

Does this make any sense... (1)

Parham (892904) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413919)

Does this make any sense to anyone? The VHS cassette was introduced in late 1976 [wikipedia.org] and survived until the DVD came into the market in November 1996 [wikipedia.org] . That's a 20 year difference. It's been about 10 years and they already want to replace the DVD. There is a clear quality difference between VHS cassettes and DVDs, but will I REALLY see that big of a difference between DVDs and the next generation discs and players? My house is only so big, and my TV will have size limits, so it's not like I'll see a difference. So why will I have to pay more for "better" quality when I won't see a difference?

It just sounds like I'm being bullied into paying more for "better" quality by the industry. That or the article is complete bull...

I wouldn't be so hasty... (2, Insightful)

stickyc (38756) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413939)

The first alternative formats are just now being introduced. If you rewind the wayback machine, the first DVD format wars started in the early 1990s [wikipedia.org] with the first consumer players not becoming available until 1997 in the US. Betamax was released in 1984 with "a winner" in the tape format wars not being declared until 1988 [wikipedia.org] . I'm not up on HDTV's timeline enough to quote actual dates, but I picked up my first "digital ready" HDTV in 2000 and it wasn't until just last year that the industry had actually agreed to an input standard for digital content.

Despite what the industry says, I'm betting on at least 4 years before I really have to worry about my precious DVD's being truly obsolete.

Dead? (1)

Fei_Id (937827) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413942)

Not quite. Wasnt there a record amount of DVDs sold this holiday season? Hell I know I bought more than I ever have before; and there are many people that I know that will agree. Someone saying 'DVD is dead' sounds like someone that just wants to be the first one to say something; so they say truly outlandish things that never come true. (but just in case they do, lets say it anyway!)

I want to get the Wedding Crashers special edition on DVD :D

So when is the clearence Sale begin (1)

jisom (113338) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413950)

I really need to improve my library

Right... (2, Informative)

RickPartin (892479) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413954)

Technology doesn't just die like these sensationalistic articles tend to believe. It slowly loses momentum over several years. VHS is still widely used for Christ sake. DVD is still in it's prime. Players are cheap and people are buying disks like crazy. It seems way early to start shoving a new standard down consumers throats. Another thing is that consumers get comfortable with a technology and tend to stick with it for as long as possible. For Christmas I bought my dad a new DVD player. I set it up and showed him how to use it the best I could. He calls me up the next day completely confused and jokingly says "You might as well have brought me a fucking space ship". So I guess the moral of the story is that it is not time to give the average Joe another fucking space ship to figure out.

Thanks (1)

mslinux (570958) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413963)

"DVD is dead."

This reminds me of a line I heard once... "Every person in this room is now dumber because you said that.

Anyone Remember How SACD Took Off? (1)

Quaoar (614366) | more than 8 years ago | (#14413964)

I don't either. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will fail for the same reason SACD failed.

DVD had a distinct advantage over VHS: No degredation in quality after multiple viewings. Basically, all HD-DVD and Blu-Ray offer are higher resolution movies, and I don't think that's enough to convince people to pay probably double the price per disc, and 500 - 1000 bucks for the player. Especially since most movies not made in the past 5 years will see almost no quality improvement when switching over to the new formats.
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