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PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact?

Zonk posted more than 8 years ago | from the up-in-the-air dept.

79

According to analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the PS3's delay is unlikely to have much of an effect on the next-gen race, reports GameDailyBiz. From the article: "While 2006 sales will clearly fall short of previous expectations, Strategy Analytics maintains its previous forecast of PS3 sales of 121.8 million units through 2012 ... This compares to expected sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 of 58.8 million units over the same period." Gamasutra reports that, from Steve Ballmer's perspective, the opposite is true. From that article: "In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation ... Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did." This all assumes the console launches this year.

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Impact (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14948975)


If they drop it out of an airplane, it will have a bigger impact.

delay, shmelay (2, Insightful)

oedneil (871555) | more than 8 years ago | (#14948979)

I don't see anyone who wants a PS3 not waiting a few extra months. I doubt anyone who wants a PS3 will decide to buy a Revolution or 360 just because they're out earlier. I know people are mostly impatient, but if that's what you really want, you'll wait.

Re:delay, shmelay (2, Interesting)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949086)

I just want the PS3 to kick ass. If it kicks ass I won't mind if they even skip a whole generation of consoles. I want an awesome experience and I'm willing to pay for it. Deliver and you'll make some cash. I'd even go as far as saying that I'd pay $1000 for a console if it really blew me away. I really want to see something more powerful than the XBox 360 which in my mind is comparable to my (fairly high-end) PC. Cram two or three Cell processors in there and some serious amounts of RAM if needed. I want a machine that I'll lust over the way I wanted a Nintendo when I was a kid.

Re:delay, shmelay (1, Insightful)

Fett101 (810894) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949173)

I'd pay $1000 for a console if it really blew me away. I really want to see something more powerful than the XBox 360 which in my mind is comparable to my (fairly high-end) PC.

Seems redundant to me.

PS3 will also compete with MS Vista and HDTV (2, Interesting)

G3ckoG33k (647276) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949536)

I think many people, including myself, will wait with a (much needed) pc upgrade until MS Vista (DirectX 10) capable hardware is around. Ok, I have run Kororaa with XGL (but normally run Gentoo), and I like it A LOT. However, I have kids... And unless there are compelling Linux gaming alternatives the upgrade may well be Vista... Also, I may need to by a new tv... An HDTV. Oooo, another 1,000$ So, if the PS3 will work as a Linux-based pc, too, then it is clear. It will be PS3. If it will be cheap, like 500$, then maybe both a new pc and a PS3. Oh, I almost forgot, I need a new car, too...

Re:delay, shmelay (1)

Sysgen (583488) | more than 8 years ago | (#14958463)

I don't know what your're expecting but the nVidia PS3 chips are done. There won't be any discernable difference between the PS3 and the 360.

installed user base (3, Insightful)

BewireNomali (618969) | more than 8 years ago | (#14948997)

the ps installed user base is too big to overcome. most ps2 owners will re up and get a ps3. most ps2 owners are satisfied with their gaming experience, and I have no reason to believe that this will change between now and when the ps3 is released.

the ps3 will do well. how well the 360 does isn't dependent on what Sony does, more on what microsoft does. they have been marketing the 360 poorly in my opinion, thus limiting the reach of the console.

Re:installed user base (1)

sreekotay (955693) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949018)

Yep, that's what Nintendo thought. And Sega. And S- well, we'll see...
--
graphically speaking [kotay.com]

Re:installed user base (1)

rseuhs (322520) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951504)

Actually, no that was not what Nintendo and Sega thought because they would have made their consoles backwards compatible if they did.

Nintendo's and Sega's failures all were starting from scratch, the large userbase from the previous generation didn't help them an itch.

Re:installed user base (1)

sreekotay (955693) | more than 8 years ago | (#14957522)

Hm - that's an interesting point: is the argument that on a level playing field, time to market matters, but backwards compat tips the scales? not sure I agree
--
graphicallyspeaking [kotay.com]

History can repeat itself, though... (4, Insightful)

babbling (952366) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949078)

Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES. In fact, the first PlayStation was originally going to be a collaboration between Nintendo and Sony as a CD-ROM drive for the SNES [wikipedia.org] . Nintendo pulled out, Sony continued developing it, and the cancellation of that contract turned out to be the worst decision that Nintendo ever made.

My point is, at some point in time, the "popular" brand of systems always falls. Atari, Nintendo (and Sega?), and Sony's time will eventually come... It might not happen with the PS3, but the important thing to remember is that can happen, and eventually will. All empires are eventually toppled.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1, Redundant)

AngelofDeath-02 (550129) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949100)

Also, I don't believe any console has ever been on the top for more than two generations

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

niXcamiC (835033) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949736)

Think of how many console generations there have been, not all that many. Just like fledgling democracys will never have the same party voted in twice, once the market has stabalized, who knows what will happen.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

rtb61 (674572) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949837)

The xbox 360 is technically half a generation behind the PS3 (in terms of likely functionality, PS3 seems to be more of a home computer, rather than just a game console), which alters the whole equation and leaves micrsoft the likely loser (greater parental appeal, especially when combined with free open source office/homework suits etc.), unless microsoft dumps the xbox360 (and accepts the losses of what already appears to be, upon an engineering basis, a flawed product) and immdediately starts work on xbox440 in an attempt to catch up to the impression Play Station 3 is already creating in the marketplace.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

BewireNomali (618969) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950672)

this is a poor and biased assessment. what functionality will the ps3 have that the 360 does not?

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

cornface (900179) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950843)

what functionality will the ps3 have that the 360 does not?

The big Playstation logo on the front, mainly. It is probably sufficient.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

rseuhs (322520) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951516)

  • BluRay
  • full backwards compatibility
  • two-screen output (no more splitscreens)
  • supports 7 controllers (instead of 4)
  • supoorts industry standard SD-cards (although that is not 100% sure)

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

Ontain (931201) | more than 8 years ago | (#14964747)

BluRay is valid but so new that we don't know if it'll will the media wars. it's not fully backward compatibile. it's 100% for those games that are compliant. as many of the games that push the system (the good ones) aren't fully compliant. two-screens isn't that important unless you plan on having 2 HDTV's in your living room. 7 controllers is also overkill. this is more of what's possible than any games will support. I thought SONY would use SONY memory sticks just like the psp does. those are usually more expensive than SD-cards.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

rseuhs (322520) | more than 8 years ago | (#14965099)

Which games aren't compliant? AFAIK they support all PS2-games.

Why do you need 2 HDTVs to use 2 screens? (huh?) AFAIK, the PS3 will have a VGA and/or DVI port, so the most common scenario would be HDTV for player 1 and computer screen for player 2 - or both screens for one player for games that support it. Even if the players have to play on differently sized screens (which may give one player a small advantage) it beats splitscreen by a longshot. Also for flight simulators you could have the landscape on the big screen and the controls on the other screen, which would be pretty nice. But of course the games have to support it, true.

7 controllers are overkill, nevertheless it may be fun for some party-games or so, it certainly doesn't hurt.

I've read the PS3 will support all 3 cards: PS1/2 memory cards, memory sticks and SD-cards. However that was over a year ago, I've no idea wether that will materialize.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (2, Informative)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949121)

It can happen but I don't think there is much risk of it happening right now. Sony would have to release a PS3 (now later than the 360) that just didn't have the power and features needed. Lacking such a stupid move I think they'll do fine.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

ArwynH (883499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950064)

Sony messing up isn't the only way for them to lose poll position. The console that is considered market leader is the console that has the largest install base, so to speak. In the short term, I'd agree with you that Sony has very little to worry about, the PS3 will sell well on pure hype alone. But for the long term hype won't be sufficient. The only thing that can guarantee the largest install base is 'Killer Games'.

While it is not completely straight forward, the console that has the best 'killer games' wins. In other words, the console that has the best enviroment for games to be developed under has the advantage. Historicly, this is why the initial sales are so important. The larger your initial install base, the more likely companies are to develop games for your console and the more games that are developed, the higher that chance a 'killer game' will be developed.

This time around there are a few things that are different that make those initial sales a lot less important. To start with, the cost of game development for the different consoles differs quite a bit. The Revolution will be a lot cheaper to develop for than for the other two. This means that the smaller developers will prefer making games for it. Also it would be the prefered platform for risky brand new titles, since the loss would be lower if the game didn't sell well.

The other thing that improves the chances of 'killer games' on the Revolution and that is the controller. It's brand new and has huge untapped potential. It would not be suprising to see quite a few 'killer games' that it made possible.

Of course I'm ignoring things that I don't think matter, like graphics and networking. The Revolution's graphics should be good enough on an ordinary TV, that most of us have. Graphics also don't have much effect on gameplay, which is what most 'killer games' are known for. And since all consoles will have some form of centralised networking capability, from the developers point of view they are more or less equal.

All things taken into account, I recon the Revolution has a good chance of taking the lead from the PS this generation. Time shall tell.

As for me, I'm not made of money and even $500 is way too much for me, so I'll be buying a Revolution with a copy of Zelda at launch as my entries into the NextGen. I also doubt I'm alone in this. :)

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950760)

I think the Revolution is sort of a wildcard. I think the market is likely to really go in two different directions. Young children and non-hardcore gamers will likely go with the Revolution and the more hardcore gamers will stick with XBox and Playstation. This is a pretty smart move on the part of Nintendo I think.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (4, Interesting)

scot4875 (542869) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951369)

You (and a lot of other people) seem to have a really funny definition of hardcore gamer, in my mind.

I've been playing video games for over 20 years. I've played systems from the Atari 2600 and Intellivision era through the current console generation. I've been playing PC games since my first 8088. I've played every genre. I am very good at games. I consider myself as hardcore as they come.

But I'm bored to tears with what most people consider 'hardcore' games. Seriously, fuck every FPS from now until infinity until someone introduces something *new*. Fuck every sports and racing sim out there. Fuck every "line up 3 and they disappear'" puzzle game. Stealth action games can go to hell -- new ways to hide and/or be detected ain't a new game, nor is a new (usually stupid, tired, cliched -- thank you Tom Clancy!) story. 1-on-1 Fighting games are getting extremely tired (I pumped hundreds of dollars into Mortal Kombat machines over 10 years ago).

In the last generation, I could probably count the number of unique, interesting games on my fingers. All these moron 10-18 year olds who think they're "so hardcore!" are just playing new versions of the same stuff that I mastered in the '80s and '90s.

I think that any truly hardcore gamer is probably as bored as I am with what's out there and wants something new to try. I'm not talking about high resolution or 5.1 surround, either -- those are nice, and I certainly enjoy a polished presentation as much as the next guy -- but the only next-gen system I'm really interested in (and that includes my gaming PC) is the Revolution. Everything else is just more of the same.

--Jeremy

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (2, Insightful)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951416)

You, like myself, are getting old. We don't count as hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers are the mostly young male population that lives for games and might never have played Pac Man or Super Mario.

I do share some things with the gamers though in that I'm very interested in seeing what kind of raw processing power can put put into these consumer machines. They want them for games and I want them for doing my own little interesting projects on.

The Revolution may innovate in the controller and basic gameplay premises which is great but as soon as it does the XBox and PS3 will just adopt those innovations and be left with much more powerful machines that can do everything the Revolution can and much more. Sure the game market is stuck in a rut but processing power still gives you more room to do stuff.

I'm betting on collabortive content creation as the next-gen killer app. Get some very powerful machines networked together and turn game building, movie production, music production, etc into an easy-to-do group experience and you'll have something. Maybe the Revolution-type controller will be part of that process but a lot of it has to do with having the raw power and bandwidth needed and creating some nice software interfaces and new task-purposed hardware for input etc.

An example would be that many years ago I had a group of friends that had some custom software that would let them hook their midi instruments up and transmit the data back and forth so the group could jam together despite not living close to each other. Today you could provide a nice interface to that process complete with vocals, cam feeds, live editing, recording, and fan interaction and I think people would love it. That isn't a hardcore gamer type of thing but it could make good use of some serious hardware. It's reinventing the concept of a garage band for the Internet era. You could even offer an MMORPG built around such a system so that you could form online bands and compete with other bands and quest and work your way up in the world by being a good band. Some games have bards and things like that. What if everyone in your group used an instrument to battle, defend, cast magic, heal, etc or if your band had to play a given song with the level of percision used to base how well you succeeded. Lots of possibilities.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

dootbran (467662) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951830)

So what games do you like?

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14952388)

Yes. Nobody born AFTER you can EVER be a hardcore gamer.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

Troglodyt (898143) | more than 8 years ago | (#14955906)

From Nintendo's Revolution website:
"Revolution will play all of your favorite Nintendo GameCube games, and deliver downloadable access to 20 years of fan-favorite titles originally released for Nintendo 64, the Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) and even the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES)."

Yeah, it really sounds like they are innovating here.
Do you know anything at all about the Revolution, except for the old games and the new controller?

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

apoc06 (853263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14956805)

you echo my greatest worry about nintendo and the revolution. so far it seems like everyone is getting really really excited over nothing. the nintendo hype train is in full swing, and we dont even realize its all hype. i'm not above admitting that im caught up in this hype myself; i am curious about the revolution, but im not going to dedicate my money blindly based upon a few supposed promises.

so far we know little next to nothing about the revolution. i want details. i want games. i want screenshots.

i blame the media. they are so busy selling us on the idea that the new controller marks a radical paradigm shift in gaming, that they have neglected to show us any proof. what good is the greatest controller known to mankind if there arent any fun games for it? yes, nintendo has a great trackrecord, but there are way too many unknowns. we know more about the ps3 than the revolution, yet the ps3 is almost daily villified for not giving out enough info.

we know /how/ the controller is supposed to work. have we seen any of the supposed "sleeves" for the controller? have we seen any screenshots or movies of actual games [except for that crappy golf game]? how will the network service work? will it be just like the ds? what about this download service, will i be able to download third party titles that nintendo does not have the rights to [most of our favorite nintendo games, other than mario, zelda and the flagship franchises are third party titles]? if i already own a title, will i have to pay for it again to play it on my revolution? how much will downloaded games cost? how much will the revolution cost? these are real questions that need /real/ answers.

until i get some answers, i will stick nintendo at the bottom of the stack. i love nintendo as much as the next guy, but until i have /some/ sort of idea of what the hell the revolution really is... i cant force myself to lust over it.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

ArwynH (883499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951576)

Yep, a very clever move, because if you think about it, the non-hardcore gamers and current non-gamers are a larger part of the market. That and hardcore gamers will probably get more than one console or all of them, since they are avid followers of 'killer games' :)

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

MikeFM (12491) | more than 8 years ago | (#14953538)

They are effectively leaving the niche market with lower profitability to be fought over while they take the larger more profitable market for themselves. A pretty smart move although I do hope they do have a fair powered and networked machine still. I think the low price tag will be their key to success though.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14949314)

That does not seem to be the case here. Although MS sold like 300K units the first month, and seems to moving over 200K units every month, this rate does not seem to indicate a path to the 10 million units Ballmer says will determine leadership. In fact this seems to be rate that sony and nintendo sells obselete game systems. OTOH, one would expect the PSP to sell at 500K to 1 million units each month. Balmer is correct that this delay does give MS a chance to reach the 10 million before Sony, but only if MS can start to sell more than 300K units a month.

Certainly there will come a day when Sony will fall. If they royally screw up they could really lose the market, which likely means that they still sell more that MS, but just not by a factor of 10:1. However, even if MS could close the gap to 5:1, that would give them some hope for the next generation of consoles.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

Pranadevil2k (687232) | more than 8 years ago | (#14954761)

Yes, people were very satisfied with their SNESs when the PlayStation released. But the Playstation was leaps and bounds ahead of the SNES. Even the kind of lame launch titles of the PlayStation were 'better' than the SNESs last-gasp titles. Just the fact that most of the PSX games were 3D was a huge advancement.

By comparison, there are many players who express that the 360 isn't that great. They say the graphics are good but don't look like the next-gen. They certainly aren't anywhere near the leap from 16-bit to 32/64 bit, or from 32/64 to.. whatever the hell the PS2/NGC/XBX were. That kind of improvement is probably impossibly on a purely technical level, but it's what we expected and it wasn't delivered.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

apoc06 (853263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14957298)

when playstation games were released they capitalized on the fact that for the first time we were really able to play near arcade quality games at home. the tekken series was unheard of on a home console. virtua fighter was no where near as graphically intense. the psx generation heralded the first set of 3d platform games, and due to cd media... game length grew by leaps and bounds. the space afforded by cd gave psx such a huge advantage in terms of developer freedom in terms of content, game length, music, texturing etc...

the oncoming generation will most likely be a let down until 2-3 years out, when developers will have had a project or two under their belt and more experience with the platform. i have hopes with the ps3, but even at best case scenario the launch titles will only tap a small portion of the potential for the console.

Re:History can repeat itself, though... (1)

tgibbs (83782) | more than 8 years ago | (#14960416)

Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES.

However, the original PS was able to offer something that was not available (aside from a couple of cartridges with auxiliary processors) in previous generations--3D polygon graphics, making possible completely new game designs. But there are no further quantum leaps to offer. From here on in, all new systems have to offer is a bit more polish.

Re:installed user base (1)

justchris (802302) | more than 8 years ago | (#14961859)

That is so not true.

Most (emphasis on most) PS2 owners will not purchase a new gaming system until mid to late 2007. That is the main reason the delay is inconsequential. For the greater majority of home console owners, the number of games already out or sufficient for them. The hardcore gamers are the only ones who A) will purchase a new system early in it's lifespan, B) are loyal enough to a particular brand to disregard the experience offered by a competitor. Aside from the early rush for Christmas presents, most of those system sales will happen in 2007. The 2007 christmas season will likely see anywhere from 2x to 4x the sales of any given next-gen game system as the 2006 christmas season.

X-Mas season is irrelevant (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14949005)

Whether or not the PS3 ships for the X-mas season is irrelevant.
Regardless of when the console launches, Sony will completely sell out of units to hardcore fans.
Hardware will not be available to families or casual gamers until at least 4-6 months after launch.

Re:X-Mas season is irrelevant (1)

Xerxus (899945) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949045)

Yeah, that's true. They are manufacturing 1 million per month across three regions. There is no way that's enough.

3rd Party Developers (1)

tealover (187148) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949013)

They may start leaving Sony if they don't make the projected amount of money this year. Sony is this close to losing their empire.

Total Number Of PS3s Sold In '06 Unchanged (1)

GameEngineer (961102) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949038)

The PS3 is moved forward in Europe.
The PS3 is on the same schedule for the US.
The PS3 is pushed back in Japan.

Production of PS3 components remains unchanged from before they decided to change to a unified launch. We already know they are in the process of volume production of Broadband Engine chips for the system this month. And I assume they are doing the same for the other compoenents.

The total number of PS3s manufactured and sold in 2006 is going to be exactly the same. However, who gets PS3s where and when has been moved around. So unless you are one of the few developers with a game targeted at launch, development is proceeding along with no change.

Re:Total Number Of PS3s Sold In '06 Unchanged (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14951136)

Microsoft astroturfers strike again. Maybe one of you weasels can explain why the parent was modded -1?

121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (4, Insightful)

ThisIsForReal (897233) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949052)

Those analyst forecasts are way off.

By my calculations, it's 121.6 (they must have forgotten to take into account leap year, tax increases, etc).

How can somebody make predictions on the sale of a new piece of technology, projecting 6 years into the future, and to be so arrogant that they use the tenth's decimal place to make their forecast? Whatever...

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (1)

black mariah (654971) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949070)

Because each tenth works out to ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITS, you fucking moron.

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14949080)

How is that relevant? I still refuse to believe that they can project sales to four fucking significant figures with any degree of scientific accuracy whatsoever.

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (2, Insightful)

ThisIsForReal (897233) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950764)

I understand a decimal place, when applied to millions of units, equals hundreds of thousands. That doesn't diminish the principle that the analyst numbers are garbage. You're applying a decimal to a 3 digit number, which means you're forecasting a number with more accuracy than a percentage point. It's no more accurate than a fart in the wind.

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (1)

black mariah (654971) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951410)

So what would you do if they had a prediction for 800,000 units sold? Are you going to call that bullshit too? Of course you're going to make the claim that the analysts numbers are the equivalent of saying "We'll sell 800,100 units" when it's not even close to the same thing.

You're not applying a decimal to a 3 digit number. You're decimalizing a NINE DIGIT number. There's a distinct difference and if you can't figure it out I suggest you shut the fuck up and to back to high school.

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14954247)

Boy oh boy are you thick.

Both are wrong. (2, Insightful)

paullyjunge (953573) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949146)

I don't think Ballmer is exactly right, nor whoever wrote the article either. If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense. If you are putzing along on a PS2 and get sick of waiting for the PS3, you'll get the itch and pick one up. Sad but true.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

mcc (14761) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949322)

If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360.

In order to do that, though, Microsoft will have to release some actual games that aren't just PC ports or short flash-game-on-steroids one-offs.

Moreover, these games will have to be more interesting and attention-grabbing than Kingdom Hearts 2 or Final Fantasy 12, which is what people who stick with their PS2 have to look forward to in the period between now and the PS3.

I mean, it's quite clear to me that the people who have bought the XBox 360 are quite happy with their decision. But I'm just thinking, when you look at the wider audience, it really looks like the largest problem the XBox 360 has is that it's doing a terrible job of convincing people "the next generation is here" in the first place.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

nbehary (140745) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950045)

I agree. Combined with everything else it had going against it, Sega I think ultimately ended up with the same problem with the DC. I don't think M$oft will have the same fate as the DC, but I think they will struggle just from being so early.

I think the PS3 and the Revolution are going to offer a lot more to bringing in the Next Generation than the Xbox360 has managed. Maybe the next 6 mo or so of games for the 360 may change that, but I don't see that. (Oblivion may be one, but I think the people who want to play that mostly have PCs already. I don't see the 360 version winning them over)

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

paullyjunge (953573) | more than 8 years ago | (#14952794)

...the largest problem the XBox 360 has is that it's doing a terrible job of convincing people "the next generation is here" in the first place.

In terms of what? The next gen of video games is clearly about being able to download games, and that is what they are doing with Live. Graphics? Bah, who cares. If you look at the trends for all the future consoles, it is online connectivty and the ability to download games. I think you are right though, they could do a lot more to show off Live, that's where they will win it if they do. This is the main reason I think Nintendo will take back a large share of what it lost to the Sony and MS. People will know for sure that they can play all their favorite NES and SNES games on up on the Revolution.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

apoc06 (853263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14957334)

that is if nintendo will be able to secure the rights to offer all of their third party titles for download. most of our most beloved series outside of the main nintendo franchises are third party titles.

Re:Both are wrong. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14954796)

You assume that I have a gaming PC or would rather buy the PC version of said port.

I'm getting a 360 (once they come out in New Zealand) BECAUSE it has PC ports, and I want to know that I can put in a disk and play without worrying about hardware stats at any point for the next four-five years.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

apoc06 (853263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14957670)

you have a point. i think that sony is still doing alot of damage to the x360 market buy consistently selling more units of the ps2 than MS is selling x360s.

the fact that sony has not seemed to be slacking off on titles either says alot. the releases slated for this year seem to show that inspite of a new console due this year, they are still committing to solid titles [read: sequels] for ps2. MGS: subsistence, kingdom hearts2, final fantasy12, god of war2... even nintendo has the new zelda title on its way for gamecube, whereas microsoft has all but abandoned the xbox entirely.

i think the MS marketting did an excellent job catering to the hardcore market, but they have a long way to go before the casual and family market comes around to appreciating the xbox brand. everything about the xbox screams "L337!!!!!!", but thats a tough sale in order to land the mass market. i think that last gen the xbox did well by having the more powerful system that comes with being later to market. the graphics [and halo/ splinter cell] won over many people who were just buying into the generation. being first may cripple them this go around, since presumably the ps3 will trump the x360 graphically [we shall see if thats true], and the revolution will eat the casual gamers, the jaded gamer market, and the i hate sony market.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

Sysgen (583488) | more than 8 years ago | (#14958532)

Those PS3 Untold Legends screen shots really scream next gen. Seriously, the ocnsole just launched. I think Fight Night 3, GRAW and Oblivion are doing the job quite nicely. I haven't played Condemned as of yet but I hear it's also a stunner as well as PGR3 which renders some really gorgeous cities. Had enough yet?

Lots of People Want Sequels (1)

Nazmun (590998) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950960)

They want their FF13, their gran turismo 5, metal gear solid 4: The Baby Snake, and whatever the hell exclusive sequels the ps3 will grab.

Sadly, since i love all of those games i'm one of them. Unless the 360 gains a ton of games of genres i like along with a universal amount of glowing reviews for a few of these games I won't touch the thing. I dont' even give a flying craphole about upgraded graphics. I don't even have hdtv so i won't be able to see the details in baby snake's feces. Although my projected purchase period for the ps3 is at the very earliest 2years (i hate launch prices and i see ps2 rpgs keeping me occupied for quite some time).

Right now the only games i'm interested in(for the orig xbox and 360) have better or equal counterparts on the pc. THe same cannot be said for the playstation games.

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

rseuhs (322520) | more than 8 years ago | (#14952060)

If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense.

In 2006, maybe.

But what about 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011?

Re:Both are wrong. (1)

paullyjunge (953573) | more than 8 years ago | (#14952764)

But what about 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011?

Assuming the PS3 is out by then, we will have to see. I do not think Balmer was correct about the first to 10 million consoles sold, but obviously the console with the most consoles out will get the majority of games out there. Note that majority does not mean best.

Re:Both are wrong. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14955025)

This is a quote from a Japanese forum:

Just because there's no curry in the shop you don't eat shit!

How well did the original Xbox do? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14949543)

How many units of the original Xbox were sold? The 360 is up to 2 mil so far wasn't it? And so far I haven't seen better reason to get a 360 than the original Xbox. So I don't see them selling that many units this time around unless they do a dramatic change in the game lineup.

Replacements (2, Interesting)

smithsfan (681881) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949599)

I guess this is as good an article to make this comment. As someone who has worked in retail for 6 years (Gamestop and now Gamecrazy) I am eternally amused that no analyst (that I've read, at least) has ever once mentioned that the installed PS2 user base is grossly overstated. Yes, the PS2 has sold well over 100 million units, but I would be very conservative in estimating that at least 30 million of those units(AT LEAST) are replacements for broken PS2's. It's really quite amazing to me that I've sold quite a few customers their 4th PS2 since 2001. The thing is, they're so invested in games, that they simply must replace their PS2 when it breaks, and they break... gosh, seems yearly.

Besides the replacements, there are tons of users that have second and third machines. Much like the GBA buyers, they just had to get the special edition units, or the slimmer unit, or... whatever, you get it.

I'd say that the installed user base for PS2s, based on my own experience, is overstated by 40-50%. The PS2 won the last console war, but not by nearly as much as the sales figures show.

(and, yes, the Xbox had quite a few return customers due to broken hardware, but not nearly as many. The Gamecube appears to be indestructible)

Re:Replacements (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14949786)

I can vouch for that. I've purchased four PS2 units, each to replace a broken previous unit. And I won't touch the PS3. I'd rather just "miss out." Ironically, I opted not to replace my fourth DISC ERROR DAMMIT PS2, and now Guitar Hero comes out and it's a blast and I don't get to play it. I remember back when you could own only ONE of a console and you'd get to play games on it. Go figure. Sony has officially lost me forever as a customer... when my current PS2 went down, I just sold all my games. I missed playing Karaoke Revolution, until Party came out for the Xbox so now it's not a problem.

My Cube and Xbox soldier on flawlessly. If GH comes out for either one, they have my pre-order paid as soon as they ask for it.

Re:Replacements (1)

ivan256 (17499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14949815)

That's funny, I have two PS2s, one from release day, and they're both trucking along each with hundreds of hours of play time on them, and they work just fine. I can't keep a Gamecube alive to save my life though.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't prove anything. I would be *very* surprised if more than 10% of the PS2s out there were sold as replacements.... at least because of damage. More people than that might have bought a replacement to get the new slim version. Same goes for the Xbox and the Gamecube.

Re:Replacements (1)

Cybro (880749) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950069)

You do relise that you just made a pretty strong argument for his statment. If you represent an average PS2 owner then the installed userbase is only half of the salesfigurs.

Re:Replacements (1)

ivan256 (17499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950194)

Actually, If you count the number of people with access to my PS2s, and only use me as an example, then the installed userbase is twice the sales figures.

Re:Replacements (1)

MMaestro (585010) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950702)

What about PS2s that are kept and shared on college campuses? LAN centers? Cybercafes?

How do you tell if they own their own personal PS2? What if they have multiple PS2s in different locations (1 at home, 1 at college)? What about people who have 'access' to a PS2, but doesn't play? (Read: parents who still think video games are for kids)

Trying to gauge a userbase beyond sales is simply too complicated and contraversial. Heck, if you argue it enough, you can claim all video game console userbases are at least triple its current claims (owner + 1 immediate family member + 1 friend).

Re:Replacements (1)

ivan256 (17499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950803)

Trying to gauge a userbase beyond sales is simply too complicated and contraversial.

That was exactly my point.

Re:Replacements (1)

tgibbs (83782) | more than 8 years ago | (#14960441)

I'm still on my first PS2, but I'm an adult. My sister has kids, and the unit gets a lot more use. I think she's on her third unit, and I think there was a major repair in there as well.

Re:Replacements (1)

ivan256 (17499) | more than 8 years ago | (#14960600)

It's not really surprising... Optical drives can only take so much abuse. DVD drives even less so than what old CD players could. I think I've gotten lucky with my PS2s considering I'm on something like my fourth DVD player, my third Gamecube, and judging by the pile of dead CD-ROM/CD-R/DVD+-R/DVD-ROM drives in the corner, like the 12th PC optical drive between myself and my wife. If any real serious study were ever done, I would bet that the MTBF for all devices that read DVDs is about equal.

Of course, if and when I have kids, after they break the second of an expensive item, they'll be hard pressed to get me to buy them a third one. I know a lot of parents reading this will tell me that I'll be of a different mind when the time comes, but I've met most parents and I'm stronger willed than them. My house is going to be run like a military academy. :)

Re:Replacements (1)

apoc06 (853263) | more than 8 years ago | (#14957934)

the ps2 replacement deal is overrated as well. sure there are very many people who have experienced some form of disc read error, but to suggest that 50 million users bought a second ps2 instead of:

1) getting it replaced under warranty
    1a) paying to get it replaced outside of warranty
2) getting upset and buying a rival system
3) buying an used system

its hard to believe you mister anonymous coward. you mean to tell me that in the last five or so years, your ps2s conveniently broke outside of warranty? or that you wouldnt have wisened up and bought the extended warranty after say... your second ps2 fried?

most retailers extend a 1 year warranty on top of the manufacturers warranty for just making a purchase at their store. it sounds like youre lying and speading FUD [hence your posting AC], or you did something that voided your warranty and thats why you couldnt return yours. if youre doing something that broke the warranty [like installing a mod-chip] the cause for your anger probably should be focused in the mirror. if thats the case, that makes sense why you would buy a whole new ps2 instead of just having yours replaced.

for the record my ps2 works fine; had it for years, BUT my xbox gives me read errors with a quarter of the discs i play, even brand new ones.

Re:Replacements (1)

tgibbs (83782) | more than 8 years ago | (#14960453)

Most retailers around here charge for an extended warranty. And a lot of these units break after the first year (I don't think any of my sister's PS2 failures came in year 1). Sony's price to fix one is so close to replacement cost that a lot of people figure that they might as well have a completely new unit.

Re:Replacements (1)

boarder8925 (714555) | more than 8 years ago | (#14950392)

The GameCube appears to be indestructible.
Not so. Many GameCubes are also getting Disc Read Errors, and my brother had to get a new one when his GameCube's disc nub broke.

Re:Replacements (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14950654)

There's a good quick fix for the disc read error, if you don't want to bother sending your cube back to Ninty for repairs. When you see signs like freezing, or hear a faint clicking sound - that indicates the cube is trying to read one sector repeatedly - open the disc cover. This will halt the game. Wait for the message that tells you to close the disc cover, and voila! When you close the cover again, you'll continue as though the read error never happened.

It can be a pain in the butt - especially if you're playing from across the room with your wavebird - but since the disc read error happens rarely on my launch Cube, I've been willing to put up with it. (I've heard that they fixed the disc read problem in later iterations of the hardware, but I couldn't say for sure.)

Re:Replacements (1)

richman555 (675100) | more than 8 years ago | (#14967310)

I've never had disk read errors on my Gamecube, however my PS2 is a different story. It still can't play most disks.

Re:Replacements (2, Interesting)

Cerium (948827) | more than 8 years ago | (#14951092)

In all fairness though, how many of those 'broken' PS2s were actually broken? The original PS2 had an adjustable angle for the laser assembly; which could be easily knocked out of alignment during shipping or due to abuse/rough handling. I cant even count how many PS2s Ive 'fixed' by simply cracking the case open and moving the little white gear near the rear-right side. Disc read error? I think not.
Most people wont bother attempting to fix anything themselves, theyd much rather write it off as a loss and buy a new one.

Re:Replacements (1)

Manmademan (952354) | more than 8 years ago | (#14952181)

you're dead on- I've "fixed" a few ps2's in my time with nothing more than a couple cotton swabs and some alcohol to clean off the damn lens. even moving the white adjustment gear is rare- its not common that I run across one that's TRULY broken.

Re:Replacements (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#14954829)

It's still broken.

Just because you know how to fix it doesn't mean it isn't broken. And what about when it gets more broken and there's an electrical engineer professional who knows how to fix it? Well to him it's not "really" broken, is it?

Price? (1)

Sysgen (583488) | more than 8 years ago | (#14958585)

How can you predict that 121.8 million consoles will be sold if the price is not known.

Bigger Impact (1)

richman555 (675100) | more than 8 years ago | (#14966864)

I think the delay will have some impact, just not alot. I think the key factor for Sony will be price and the quality of the launch titles. I do beleive Microsoft and Nintendo are both primed to take a pretty good chunk of the market. I still beleive the launch price of the PS3 may seal its fate.

Wow, 121.8 million units? Not in this decade. (1)

default luser (529332) | more than 8 years ago | (#14967352)

I just finished talking to a "normal" gamer buddy of mine today. You know, he likes to game, and his kids like to game. He was telling me about how much he and his kids love Call of Duty 2, and how smooth and amazing it looks on a Radeon 9200. As I sat there fighting to keep my mouth closed, he went on to mention he was buying a gaming PC "just for him," with a fancy new GeForce 6600 (no, not the 6600 GT).

I almost laughed at him, but then I realized: he doesn't care about fancy TRMSAA or Angle-dependent Anistropy, he doesn't really notice fancy real-time lights or shadow-maps. The only thing that matters to him and his kids is the game looks decent (ie, at least 640x480 resolution, reasonable resolution textures, and billinear filtering).

And why not? A whole half of the gaming population bought into the PlayStation all because it could do fancy new 3D rendering, even though the unfiltered textures and 100 polygons per scene looked like crap. Most of them traded up to the Playstation 2 because it could do much better polygonal detail and allowed higher video and texture resolutions, plus DVD.

So, here's the problem: most people think that the PS2 looks great, and it is in fact almost as good as you can get on a standard TV. So, why should people upgrade when the current console does everything they think they need?

If you don't have an HDTV, the PS3 doesn't really offer anything over the PS2 except Bluray, and again, the DEMAND for Bluray depends on you having an HDTV. All the selling points for the PS3 come back to this HDTV thing.

And normal people don't care about HD. Take my sister and her husband: they have Sony everything, a nice Sony DLP widescreen, plus a matching Sony 5.1 receiver and speaker set. It's great, except most of the things they watch are in SD, and the speakers are set up in two clumps on either side of the room. The closest they get to watching HD is through their DVD player, but I know better than to argue with them.

Look at the XBox 360. IT LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN PREVIOUS GENERATION CONSOLES, there is no doubt of that. The problem is, it doesn't look GOOD ENOUGH to warrant the upgrade, so people stick with their current-generation consoles and games. You can be sure that the PS3 will encounter the same problem.

I mean, people convince themselves all the time that Sony equipment is somehow "better" than other brands, but what happens when it's Sony versus Sony? I expect all those eagar PS2 buyers won't be so eagar to go PS3. The only console to offer anything really DIFFERENT is the Revolution, but that gives it as much risk of sinking as swimming. One thing I am sure of: console sales this generation, overall, will be lower than last generation.
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