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PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact? 79

Posted by Zonk from the up-in-the-air dept.
According to analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the PS3's delay is unlikely to have much of an effect on the next-gen race, reports GameDailyBiz. From the article: "While 2006 sales will clearly fall short of previous expectations, Strategy Analytics maintains its previous forecast of PS3 sales of 121.8 million units through 2012 ... This compares to expected sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 of 58.8 million units over the same period." Gamasutra reports that, from Steve Ballmer's perspective, the opposite is true. From that article: "In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation ... Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did." This all assumes the console launches this year.
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PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact? More

PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact?

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  • delay, shmelay (Score:1, Insightful)

    by oedneil ( 871555 )
    I don't see anyone who wants a PS3 not waiting a few extra months. I doubt anyone who wants a PS3 will decide to buy a Revolution or 360 just because they're out earlier. I know people are mostly impatient, but if that's what you really want, you'll wait.

    • Re:delay, shmelay (Score:3, Interesting)

      by MikeFM ( 12491 )
      I just want the PS3 to kick ass. If it kicks ass I won't mind if they even skip a whole generation of consoles. I want an awesome experience and I'm willing to pay for it. Deliver and you'll make some cash. I'd even go as far as saying that I'd pay $1000 for a console if it really blew me away. I really want to see something more powerful than the XBox 360 which in my mind is comparable to my (fairly high-end) PC. Cram two or three Cell processors in there and some serious amounts of RAM if needed. I want a

      • Re:delay, shmelay (Score:1, Insightful)

        by Fett101 ( 810894 )
        I'd pay $1000 for a console if it really blew me away. I really want to see something more powerful than the XBox 360 which in my mind is comparable to my (fairly high-end) PC.

        Seems redundant to me.
        • I think many people, including myself, will wait with a (much needed) pc upgrade until MS Vista (DirectX 10) capable hardware is around. Ok, I have run Kororaa with XGL (but normally run Gentoo), and I like it A LOT. However, I have kids... And unless there are compelling Linux gaming alternatives the upgrade may well be Vista... Also, I may need to by a new tv... An HDTV. Oooo, another 1,000$ So, if the PS3 will work as a Linux-based pc, too, then it is clear. It will be PS3. If it will be cheap, like 50
      • I don't know what your're expecting but the nVidia PS3 chips are done. There won't be any discernable difference between the PS3 and the 360.

  • installed user base (Score:4, Insightful)

    by BewireNomali ( 618969 ) on Saturday March 18, 2006 @04:07PM (#14948997)
    the ps installed user base is too big to overcome. most ps2 owners will re up and get a ps3. most ps2 owners are satisfied with their gaming experience, and I have no reason to believe that this will change between now and when the ps3 is released.

    the ps3 will do well. how well the 360 does isn't dependent on what Sony does, more on what microsoft does. they have been marketing the 360 poorly in my opinion, thus limiting the reach of the console.

    • Yep, that's what Nintendo thought. And Sega. And S- well, we'll see...
      --
      graphically speaking [kotay.com]
      • Actually, no that was not what Nintendo and Sega thought because they would have made their consoles backwards compatible if they did.

        Nintendo's and Sega's failures all were starting from scratch, the large userbase from the previous generation didn't help them an itch.

    • History can repeat itself, though... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by babbling ( 952366 ) on Saturday March 18, 2006 @04:32PM (#14949078)
      Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES. In fact, the first PlayStation was originally going to be a collaboration between Nintendo and Sony as a CD-ROM drive for the SNES [wikipedia.org]. Nintendo pulled out, Sony continued developing it, and the cancellation of that contract turned out to be the worst decision that Nintendo ever made.

      My point is, at some point in time, the "popular" brand of systems always falls. Atari, Nintendo (and Sega?), and Sony's time will eventually come... It might not happen with the PS3, but the important thing to remember is that can happen, and eventually will. All empires are eventually toppled.
      • Also, I don't believe any console has ever been on the top for more than two generations
        • Think of how many console generations there have been, not all that many. Just like fledgling democracys will never have the same party voted in twice, once the market has stabalized, who knows what will happen.
          • The xbox 360 is technically half a generation behind the PS3 (in terms of likely functionality, PS3 seems to be more of a home computer, rather than just a game console), which alters the whole equation and leaves micrsoft the likely loser (greater parental appeal, especially when combined with free open source office/homework suits etc.), unless microsoft dumps the xbox360 (and accepts the losses of what already appears to be, upon an engineering basis, a flawed product) and immdediately starts work on xbo
            • this is a poor and biased assessment. what functionality will the ps3 have that the 360 does not?
              • what functionality will the ps3 have that the 360 does not?

                The big Playstation logo on the front, mainly. It is probably sufficient.
                • BluRay
                • full backwards compatibility
                • two-screen output (no more splitscreens)
                • supports 7 controllers (instead of 4)
                • supoorts industry standard SD-cards (although that is not 100% sure)
                • BluRay is valid but so new that we don't know if it'll will the media wars. it's not fully backward compatibile. it's 100% for those games that are compliant. as many of the games that push the system (the good ones) aren't fully compliant. two-screens isn't that important unless you plan on having 2 HDTV's in your living room. 7 controllers is also overkill. this is more of what's possible than any games will support. I thought SONY would use SONY memory sticks just like the psp does. those are usually
                  • Which games aren't compliant? AFAIK they support all PS2-games.

                    Why do you need 2 HDTVs to use 2 screens? (huh?) AFAIK, the PS3 will have a VGA and/or DVI port, so the most common scenario would be HDTV for player 1 and computer screen for player 2 - or both screens for one player for games that support it. Even if the players have to play on differently sized screens (which may give one player a small advantage) it beats splitscreen by a longshot. Also for flight simulators you could have the landscape on

      • It can happen but I don't think there is much risk of it happening right now. Sony would have to release a PS3 (now later than the 360) that just didn't have the power and features needed. Lacking such a stupid move I think they'll do fine.

        • Sony messing up isn't the only way for them to lose poll position. The console that is considered market leader is the console that has the largest install base, so to speak. In the short term, I'd agree with you that Sony has very little to worry about, the PS3 will sell well on pure hype alone. But for the long term hype won't be sufficient. The only thing that can guarantee the largest install base is 'Killer Games'.

          While it is not completely straight forward, the console that has the best 'killer games

          • I think the Revolution is sort of a wildcard. I think the market is likely to really go in two different directions. Young children and non-hardcore gamers will likely go with the Revolution and the more hardcore gamers will stick with XBox and Playstation. This is a pretty smart move on the part of Nintendo I think.

            • Re:History can repeat itself, though... (Score:5, Interesting)

              by scot4875 ( 542869 ) on Sunday March 19, 2006 @05:56AM (#14951369) Homepage
              You (and a lot of other people) seem to have a really funny definition of hardcore gamer, in my mind.

              I've been playing video games for over 20 years. I've played systems from the Atari 2600 and Intellivision era through the current console generation. I've been playing PC games since my first 8088. I've played every genre. I am very good at games. I consider myself as hardcore as they come.

              But I'm bored to tears with what most people consider 'hardcore' games. Seriously, fuck every FPS from now until infinity until someone introduces something *new*. Fuck every sports and racing sim out there. Fuck every "line up 3 and they disappear'" puzzle game. Stealth action games can go to hell -- new ways to hide and/or be detected ain't a new game, nor is a new (usually stupid, tired, cliched -- thank you Tom Clancy!) story. 1-on-1 Fighting games are getting extremely tired (I pumped hundreds of dollars into Mortal Kombat machines over 10 years ago).

              In the last generation, I could probably count the number of unique, interesting games on my fingers. All these moron 10-18 year olds who think they're "so hardcore!" are just playing new versions of the same stuff that I mastered in the '80s and '90s.

              I think that any truly hardcore gamer is probably as bored as I am with what's out there and wants something new to try. I'm not talking about high resolution or 5.1 surround, either -- those are nice, and I certainly enjoy a polished presentation as much as the next guy -- but the only next-gen system I'm really interested in (and that includes my gaming PC) is the Revolution. Everything else is just more of the same.

              --Jeremy
              • You, like myself, are getting old. We don't count as hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers are the mostly young male population that lives for games and might never have played Pac Man or Super Mario.

                I do share some things with the gamers though in that I'm very interested in seeing what kind of raw processing power can put put into these consumer machines. They want them for games and I want them for doing my own little interesting projects on.

                The Revolution may innovate in the controller and basic gameplay pre
              • So what games do you like?

              • Re:History can repeat itself, though... (Score:1, Funny)

                by Anonymous Coward
                Yes. Nobody born AFTER you can EVER be a hardcore gamer.
              • From Nintendo's Revolution website:
                "Revolution will play all of your favorite Nintendo GameCube games, and deliver downloadable access to 20 years of fan-favorite titles originally released for Nintendo 64, the Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES) and even the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES)."

                Yeah, it really sounds like they are innovating here.
                Do you know anything at all about the Revolution, except for the old games and the new controller?
                • you echo my greatest worry about nintendo and the revolution. so far it seems like everyone is getting really really excited over nothing. the nintendo hype train is in full swing, and we dont even realize its all hype. i'm not above admitting that im caught up in this hype myself; i am curious about the revolution, but im not going to dedicate my money blindly based upon a few supposed promises.

                  so far we know little next to nothing about the revolution. i want details. i want games. i want screenshots.

                  i bl
            • Yep, a very clever move, because if you think about it, the non-hardcore gamers and current non-gamers are a larger part of the market. That and hardcore gamers will probably get more than one console or all of them, since they are avid followers of 'killer games' :)
              • They are effectively leaving the niche market with lower profitability to be fought over while they take the larger more profitable market for themselves. A pretty smart move although I do hope they do have a fair powered and networked machine still. I think the low price tag will be their key to success though.
      • Yes, people were very satisfied with their SNESs when the PlayStation released. But the Playstation was leaps and bounds ahead of the SNES. Even the kind of lame launch titles of the PlayStation were 'better' than the SNESs last-gasp titles. Just the fact that most of the PSX games were 3D was a huge advancement.

        By comparison, there are many players who express that the 360 isn't that great. They say the graphics are good but don't look like the next-gen. They certainly aren't anywhere near the leap from 16
        • when playstation games were released they capitalized on the fact that for the first time we were really able to play near arcade quality games at home. the tekken series was unheard of on a home console. virtua fighter was no where near as graphically intense. the psx generation heralded the first set of 3d platform games, and due to cd media... game length grew by leaps and bounds. the space afforded by cd gave psx such a huge advantage in terms of developer freedom in terms of content, game length, music
      • Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES.

        However, the original PS was able to offer something that was not available (aside from a couple of cartridges with auxiliary processors) in previous generations--3D polygon graphics, making possible completely new game designs. But there are no further quantum leaps to offer. From here on in, all new systems have to offer is a bit more polish.
    • That is so not true.

      Most (emphasis on most) PS2 owners will not purchase a new gaming system until mid to late 2007. That is the main reason the delay is inconsequential. For the greater majority of home console owners, the number of games already out or sufficient for them. The hardcore gamers are the only ones who A) will purchase a new system early in it's lifespan, B) are loyal enough to a particular brand to disregard the experience offered by a competitor. Aside from the early rush for Christmas

  • 121.8 and 58.8? Bah! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by ThisIsForReal ( 897233 ) on Saturday March 18, 2006 @04:24PM (#14949052) Homepage
    Those analyst forecasts are way off.

    By my calculations, it's 121.6 (they must have forgotten to take into account leap year, tax increases, etc).

    How can somebody make predictions on the sale of a new piece of technology, projecting 6 years into the future, and to be so arrogant that they use the tenth's decimal place to make their forecast? Whatever...

  • Both are wrong. (Score:2, Insightful)

    by paullyjunge ( 953573 )
    I don't think Ballmer is exactly right, nor whoever wrote the article either. If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense. If you are putzing along on a PS2 and get sick of waiting for the PS3, you'll get the itch and pick one up. Sad but true.
    • If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360.

      In order to do that, though, Microsoft will have to release some actual games that aren't just PC ports or short flash-game-on-steroids one-offs.

      Moreover, these games will have to be more interesting and attention-grabbing than Kingdom Hearts 2 or Final Fantasy 12, which is what people who stick with their PS2 have to look forward to in the period between now and the PS3.

      I
      • I agree. Combined with everything else it had going against it, Sega I think ultimately ended up with the same problem with the DC. I don't think M$oft will have the same fate as the DC, but I think they will struggle just from being so early.

        I think the PS3 and the Revolution are going to offer a lot more to bringing in the Next Generation than the Xbox360 has managed. Maybe the next 6 mo or so of games for the 360 may change that, but I don't see that. (Oblivion may be one, but I think the people who w
      • ...the largest problem the XBox 360 has is that it's doing a terrible job of convincing people "the next generation is here" in the first place.

        In terms of what? The next gen of video games is clearly about being able to download games, and that is what they are doing with Live. Graphics? Bah, who cares. If you look at the trends for all the future consoles, it is online connectivty and the ability to download games. I think you are right though, they could do a lot more to show off Live, that's wher
        • that is if nintendo will be able to secure the rights to offer all of their third party titles for download. most of our most beloved series outside of the main nintendo franchises are third party titles.
      • you have a point. i think that sony is still doing alot of damage to the x360 market buy consistently selling more units of the ps2 than MS is selling x360s.

        the fact that sony has not seemed to be slacking off on titles either says alot. the releases slated for this year seem to show that inspite of a new console due this year, they are still committing to solid titles [read: sequels] for ps2. MGS: subsistence, kingdom hearts2, final fantasy12, god of war2... even nintendo has the new zelda title on its way
      • Those PS3 Untold Legends screen shots really scream next gen. Seriously, the ocnsole just launched. I think Fight Night 3, GRAW and Oblivion are doing the job quite nicely. I haven't played Condemned as of yet but I hear it's also a stunner as well as PGR3 which renders some really gorgeous cities. Had enough yet?
    • They want their FF13, their gran turismo 5, metal gear solid 4: The Baby Snake, and whatever the hell exclusive sequels the ps3 will grab.

      Sadly, since i love all of those games i'm one of them. Unless the 360 gains a ton of games of genres i like along with a universal amount of glowing reviews for a few of these games I won't touch the thing. I dont' even give a flying craphole about upgraded graphics. I don't even have hdtv so i won't be able to see the details in baby snake's feces. Although my proje
    • If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense.

      In 2006, maybe.

      But what about 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011?

      • But what about 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011?

        Assuming the PS3 is out by then, we will have to see. I do not think Balmer was correct about the first to 10 million consoles sold, but obviously the console with the most consoles out will get the majority of games out there. Note that majority does not mean best.

  • Replacements (Score:2, Interesting)

    by smithsfan ( 681881 )
    I guess this is as good an article to make this comment. As someone who has worked in retail for 6 years (Gamestop and now Gamecrazy) I am eternally amused that no analyst (that I've read, at least) has ever once mentioned that the installed PS2 user base is grossly overstated. Yes, the PS2 has sold well over 100 million units, but I would be very conservative in estimating that at least 30 million of those units(AT LEAST) are replacements for broken PS2's. It's really quite amazing to me that I've sold
    • The GameCube appears to be indestructible.
      Not so. Many GameCubes are also getting Disc Read Errors, and my brother had to get a new one when his GameCube's disc nub broke.

    • Re:Replacements (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Cerium ( 948827 )
      In all fairness though, how many of those 'broken' PS2s were actually broken? The original PS2 had an adjustable angle for the laser assembly; which could be easily knocked out of alignment during shipping or due to abuse/rough handling. I cant even count how many PS2s Ive 'fixed' by simply cracking the case open and moving the little white gear near the rear-right side. Disc read error? I think not.
      Most people wont bother attempting to fix anything themselves, theyd much rather write it off as a loss and b
      • you're dead on- I've "fixed" a few ps2's in my time with nothing more than a couple cotton swabs and some alcohol to clean off the damn lens. even moving the white adjustment gear is rare- its not common that I run across one that's TRULY broken.
  • How can you predict that 121.8 million consoles will be sold if the price is not known.
  • I think the delay will have some impact, just not alot. I think the key factor for Sony will be price and the quality of the launch titles. I do beleive Microsoft and Nintendo are both primed to take a pretty good chunk of the market. I still beleive the launch price of the PS3 may seal its fate.
  • I just finished talking to a "normal" gamer buddy of mine today. You know, he likes to game, and his kids like to game. He was telling me about how much he and his kids love Call of Duty 2, and how smooth and amazing it looks on a Radeon 9200. As I sat there fighting to keep my mouth closed, he went on to mention he was buying a gaming PC "just for him," with a fancy new GeForce 6600 (no, not the 6600 GT).

    I almost laughed at him, but then I realized: he doesn't care about fancy TRMSAA or Angle-dependent

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