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Merrill Lynch Predicts $200 Wii

Zonk posted more than 8 years ago | from the not-a-bad-price dept.

341

Burlap writes "In a story at Forbes, Merrill Lynch predicts that Nintendo will severely undercut the competition with a $200 price point on the Wii." From the article: "An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers, told Forbes.com on Tuesday that he expects the Wii to sell for less than $200. Post said the Nintendo machine, which features a wireless controller that responds to players' body movements, 'will appeal to a broad demographic of both hard-core and casual gamers.'"

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341 comments

That sure sounds nice, but... (5, Funny)

PSXer (854386) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345725)

If i had a nickel for every time an analyst made a prediction that turned out to be incorrect, I'd have the $200 necessary to buy the Wii!

Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (1)

CmdrTaco (troll) (578383) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345905)

If zonk had a nickle for every cock he's sucked, he could buy several PS3s.

Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (2, Funny)

Meagermanx (768421) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346678)

If I had sixty cents for every dollar I had, I'd be Canada.

Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (5, Insightful)

PsychicX (866028) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346352)

Analysts may be really unreliable people, but it's pretty hard to jack this up. If we look at the link from the PS3 article (clicky [curmudgeongamer.com] ), we notice that every Nintendo console ever has launched at $200.

It's kind of a no brainer.

Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (4, Funny)

PSXer (854386) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346534)

Yeah, but patterns have to change sometime, right? Every single Playstation launched at $300 until the PS3. (Granted, Nintendo has 4 data points while Sony only has 2)

They're going in a completely different direction than everyone else this time. Who's to say they'll keep the same old price point? (Then again, $200 would be way different from 'everyone else')

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I have no way of forming a coherent argument.

price point... (5, Interesting)

moochfish (822730) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345729)

Every dollar they price this below $250 increases the likelihood of me buying it by roughly 1%. =)

What are you POOR or some shit? (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15345849)

Low rent nerds think they're rich if they make 30k

Re:What are you POOR or some shit? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346110)

Hey Bill, not everyone can swindle their way to the top like you. Look out for the DOJ!

Math Question (1)

DorkusMasterus (931246) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345950)

So say they sold it for $50... Would you then buy an extra for me? :)

Re:Math Question (1)

Bill Wong (583178) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346201)

At a $200 price point, I was already planning on buying a dozen of them, for christmas gifts for family and friends.

$50 means I can buy them for random people on the internet too.

Slow Down Cowboy! (waited 1 hour so far to post) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346188)

Perrin Kaplan pretty much said that the price alone will have people lining up to get it. I predict $149, and if I'm right that means I beat the shit out of all industry analysts with my m4d 4n4lyz1ng ski11z.
Take that, suckas! ...I bet I'll get modded down for pwning Merrill Lynch. :(

Also, it's noteworthy that if I'm right, you have at LEAST a 101% chance of buying a Wii.

Re:Slow Down Cowboy! (waited 1 hour so far to post (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346531)

Actual quote from Perrin Kaplan: "Let me just say the Wii console will be a price that you will all really like and it will cause you to line up to want to buy it"

Sounds like it'll be below the $200 mark, anyway.

Re:price point... (1)

Cheapy (809643) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346660)

So if it was $149...you'd be 101% sure to buy it? Is that even possible?

And how's that insightful? Pure opinion. Interesting I can see but really insightful is stretching the limits.

As my Leprechan says. (5, Funny)

Kaenneth (82978) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345740)

That's a Wii price. A small hit to the pot-o-gold.

Re:As my Leprechan says. (1)

ultramk (470198) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346669)

What?? You have a Scottish Leprechaun??

I'm only familiar with the Irish type, silly me... Does he ride a haggis [scotsman.com] or what?

m-

Maybe (4, Interesting)

HunterZ (20035) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345744)

Microsoft and Sony have given Nintendo some wiggle room on price here, so I think $199 will be the minimum price for the console through the end of the launch year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $299 at launch, or even $350 if it comes with a strong bundle.

Re:Maybe (1)

ellingswin (853346) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345797)

I think your terribly wrong HunterZ, they will not go over $250, sure the PS3 gave them some wiggle room, but you have to take in to account that the XBox 360 is sitting at the 300 dollar price point and Nintendo doesn't want to pass them. I agree on the 200 dollar price point. It is cheap (well for the current console standards) and it is the price they have always had with their consoles. It also points the finger at Sony because then you can buy the XBox 360 and the Wii for the price of the PS3.

Re:Maybe (1)

HunterZ (20035) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345880)

Ah, you're right - please excuse my ignorance, I thought the XBox 360 launched higher than that for some reason. Definitely Nintendo will want to launch the Wii at at least $50 under whatever the street price of the XBox 360 is at that time. I don't see it falling too far under $200 for a while though, as I doubt Nintendo would make enough of a profit at those prices.

Re:Maybe (2, Insightful)

interiot (50685) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345814)

Well, the XBox 360 core launched at $299. MS will probably drop the price at some point before PS3 launches, possibly to $250. Nintendo has stated that the Wii will be priced below the 360 and PS3... does that mean it will cost $250 or less?

I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1, Insightful)

WillAffleckUW (858324) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345747)

I disagree with Merril Lynch analysis on this, Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold. To compete with the others, I expect around a $300 retail price around Thanksgiving, which will be dropped around President's Day or Memorial Day to somewhere around $250.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (2, Informative)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345828)

Apparently, the justification for this is coming from Sega VP, Scott Steinberg [forbes.com] . He believes that the Wii will launch at under $200 due to its far simpler hardware in comparison to the competition.

Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold.

I don't see why Nintendo couldn't sell at $200 and still make profit. My understanding is that the core hardware isn't that much different from the Gamecube. Sure, they might lose short term profits that they could have had, but it would be worth it if they could pull a Sony [1up.com] on Sony themselves!

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1, Flamebait)

JDevers (83155) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345848)

Why do you assume they can't make them for just under $200? This is, after all, little more than a refresh to the GameCube with an improved controller. You could almost argue that what Nintendo is really doing is more like how Sony re-released the PSOne to replace the original PS. Same hardware, just much cheaper to make. This time around, there is definitely some improvement...but nothing like the others are making. I imagine the yields on their CPU/GPUs are nearly perfect, plus everything is nice and low transistor count on a modern process. I think they are laughing all the way to the bank with the 90% of consumers who DON'T have an HDTV.

Charging the same or only a bit less than the base 360 is NOT the way they want to play this thing. They want to be a little bit more than an impulse buy, but not a major investment like the others (which if you figure in an HDTV, they are...without the better display, they aren't any better than the Wii).

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (4, Insightful)

The Warlock (701535) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345872)

Um, we're seeing this misconception a [i]lot[/i] here. The Wii is not running on Gamecube hardware in a fancy white case. They didn't have IBM and ATI both design new custom chips for no goddamn reason, after all. The hardware is a good step up over the Gamecube, it's just that Nintendo is staying out of the dick-measuiring contest that Microsoft and Sony are getting themselves into.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (2, Interesting)

JDevers (83155) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346419)

I didn't say that, actually I very specifically said that there "was some improvement, just not as much as the others."

What part of that statement is not true?

It's not just that the Wii is slower than the 360 or PS3, it also doesn't have a lot of the modern features either of those have (it also doesn't have the incredibly convoluted PPU system they have either, but how difficult the hardware is to program for is another argument altogether). The GPU doesn't have pixel or vertex shader hardware, do you know what the last PC GPU that had a fixed function T&L pipeline was? ATI 7xxx series and Nvidia GeForce 2. On a 90nm process, you could make a GPU of that complexity for very cheap and get it to run far faster than the original 7xxx or GF2. I'm sure there are some console tricks include like in the original Flipper, but don't think you are getting the equivalent of a modern mid-range GPU to the 360/PS3 high-end. It is drastically lower class. The CPU is nearly an off the shelf component too. Lastly, supplying only a minimal amount of memory will also lower costs. They don't have to care about high res, because they won't even connect to a high res device. I don't think any of that matters to the success of the platform, I actually think that Nintendo was really smart. They have learned from the Gameboy (and to a much lesser extent, the GameCube). While you can grab headlines with selling jaw-dropping effects, price and games move units. At the end of the day, I would rather be the 3rd place hardware vendor with the 1st place sales sheet and Nintendo feels the same way.

No previous console generation was only twice as fast/capable as the one before it.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

Firehed (942385) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346681)

Because there aren't any ATI graphics cards that are cheap? Just because they made a new product doesn't mean it's expensive. By setting a low price point, they'll encourage many more buyers. If it's a profitable price point, so much the better - if it's a loss leader like the 360 (and presumably the PS3), they've actually got a system and games that people are interested in.

When the first talk of this round of consoles started, I had no interest in getting any of them. None at all. When I first saw pics of the then-Revolution, I was interested. Between the predicted price and the games (nostalgic back catalog very much included), I'm almost sure that I'll be picking up a Wii. I'm not the only one in that boat. Look at the /. poll - among the actual console pics, it's about 50% Wii, 30% PS3, 20% 360 last I checked. Just a couple months ago, we were all laughing about it's lacklustre component set, lack of HD and wonky-ass controller. Now we're all interested (trolls, haters, fanboys, and those genuinely not interersted are still out there, of course), and everyone I've asked in person listed it as their console of choice. In the end, it's all about the games - media center functionality be damned - and Nintendo is taking the right route.

Why do I still play FF7 and break out the old ROMs (easier than hooking up my SNES and giving it a blowjob every game)? They're fun games. My use of the PS2 as a DVD player stopped immediately after having access to a DVD drive, and I've used my original Playstation as a CD player maybe twice. Focus on what people want, and make the bonus features the deciding factor. Nintendo chose games as the focus, and classic games as the bonus. Throw in a crazy new interface and a low price point, and you've got a winner for sure.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

WillAffleckUW (858324) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345958)

I'm thinking more of the fact they will have to drop the price later, and how they tend to price it.

I might be convinced of a $250 retail price at launch.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

AuMatar (183847) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345998)

The Wii is supposed to have roughly twice the power of the Gamecube. Its not just a controller upgrade. That said, 200 is still doable- bulk purchases go a long way. I'd be shocked if the gamecube cost more than $50 to manufacture, remember it makes a profit. I'd think the Wii is doable for $150.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

Nataku564 (668188) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346692)

Getting a gamecube repaired (regardless of the damage) by nintendo is currently $50. That tends to make one believe that the cost of all the internals is somewhere around that price point, given that they will likely only be replacing some of the components with each repair, then some extra for labor and such.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

jchenx (267053) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345934)

As others have noted, the horsepower under the Wii, while a bit greater than the GC, is still no match for the 360 or Cell. In terms of pricing, that's probably a good thing for consumers. I highly doubt it'll sell for $300. The only folks who really want that are probably the Sony fanbois who will do anything to see the competition fail. :P (And I really don't understand the fanboi phenomenon anymore)

My money is on $250.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

WillAffleckUW (858324) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345974)

so long as it has games I want to play, why should I care what's under the hood?

I mean, seriously, I paid how much for an xBox just to play Fable and then two cross-platform games (Lego Star Wars and Sims 2)?

But the GameCube I've got tons of fun games.

And I expect a game bundle for the $300 retail.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

jchenx (267053) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346090)

Hey hey, don't shoot the messenger. I agree that better horsepower does not equal a better game. You were just talking about the cost of the box, which horsepower does affect.

Regarding games, everyone has a different idea of fun. I never picked up a GC, since it didn't have anything I really *had* to have, that was worth the price of a new console. However, there were plenty of games on the Xbox and especially PS2 side that I just had to play. *shrugs*

My Nintendo "console" for this generation? The DS. But I definately see myself picking up the Wii, even at launch (and I rarely get consoles at launch).

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

forkazoo (138186) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346020)

I disagree with Merril Lynch analysis on this, Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold. To compete with the others, I expect around a $300 retail price around Thanksgiving, which will be dropped around President's Day or Memorial Day to somewhere around $250.
While it's true that Nintendo is reported to make a profit on the console hardware, it should be pointed out that every previous console has launched at $200. Even N64, which was much more powerful (though had less storage) than the competing Playstation or Saturn consoles. Sure, with inflation, $200 buys less now than it did in 1985 for most things. Even so, I think they may decode to go for $200 again.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

AK__64 (740022) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346227)

One word: inflation. The price of each and every component used in producing the Wii has increased significantly, not to mention the development costs. I'd be surprised if the Wii launches at $200. Pleasantly surprised, of course, but I doubt it's possible. Also I don't think it makes good business sense even if it is possible - why charge less when you can charge more, when the effect on sales is going to be insignificant? Nintendo should shoot for lowering the price when Super Smash Brothers comes out, early '07. It's a pretty aggressive price-reduction schedule, at least compared to the competition, but I think it's appropriate.

Something else that Nintendo should try is asking 3rd-party game developers to release on the same day as Super Smash Brothers. This would create a lot of hype and spark a second wave of consumers that aren't early adopters but are excited about next-gen.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (4, Informative)

prockcore (543967) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346316)

One word: inflation. The price of each and every component used in producing the Wii has increased significantly

No it hasn't. Consumer electronics aren't affected by inflation.

From capacitors and resistors to DVD lasers, they're all cheaper today than ever before.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

WillAffleckUW (858324) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346622)

One word: inflation. The price of each and every component used in producing the Wii has increased significantly, not to mention the development costs.

Good point, but I'd be more concerned with the currency exchange rate between Japan and the US at this point. I think that will impact the USD pricing more.

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (0)

uncoveror (570620) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346113)

How much will the portable version [uncoveror.com] cost?

Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (1)

PyroMosh (287149) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346693)

You posted this on the last Wii story. It wasn't funny then either. And posting to articles on your own personal Onion ripoff site is lame to begin with.

I already predicted this price point today. (2, Informative)

oscartheduck (866357) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345761)

http://games.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=185919&c id=15344390 [slashdot.org]

I already extrapolated exactly this prediction from the data given in a previous article. The evidence I drew this conclusion from was the posted statistics in TFA of the previous note (the article is available here [curmudgeongamer.com] if you don't want to follow too many links).

Congratulations! (3, Funny)

Chris Pimlott (16212) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345799)

Merrill Lynch now owes you a dollar!

Re:I already predicted this price point today. (1)

ShadowMarth (870657) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345937)

You're not Merrill Lynch.

Re:I already predicted this price point today. (1)

XenoRyet (824514) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345981)

Several thousand forum lurkers and Nintendo fanboys already beat Merril to the punch on this one as well. Albeit with varying degrees of research and validity. Point is: This is hardly a new prediction.

Re:I already predicted this price point today. (1)

grammar fascist (239789) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346276)

Several thousand forum lurkers and Nintendo fanboys already beat Merril to the punch on this one as well. Albeit with varying degrees of research and validity. Point is: This is hardly a new prediction.

It's an especially easy conclusion to come to as well, since every Nintendo console ever made has sold for $199.

If you really want to break with the crowd, don't predict $200. That's why I'm predicting $207.41.

Another Wii (4, Insightful)

foundme (897346) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345766)

Is there a constructive reason for such prediction? Will Merrill Lynch get a prize or something if the prediction is correct?

We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.

Re:Another Wii (2, Informative)

rehtonAesoohC (954490) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345807)

Merrill Lynch is an investment company. My brother works for A.G. Edwards, also an investment company. The reason companies like this come out with predictions is to advise their clients what stocks to buy and which to sell.

I have been in the options market for a little over a year now, and when the company believes a stock will go up, they set a target price and a time frame and advise me to buy... It's just the way they work.

Re:Another Wii (3, Funny)

ZakuSage (874456) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345851)

Well Slashdot has always been full of rabid Nintendo fanboys.

Re:Another Wii (1)

grammar fascist (239789) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346339)

Well Slashdot has always been full of rabid Nintendo fanboys.

Just don't let one bite you, or some night after a full moon, you'll wake up naked in a dumpster clutching a Wavebird.

Re:Another Wii (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15345995)

This prediction is very usefull to us gamers who hate to dabble in financial data. Based on Merrill Lynch's past prediction for the PS3 [ml.com] , they overestimated the cost of the Wii by 30% - expect a launch price of $150.

Re:Another Wii (1)

grammar fascist (239789) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346312)

Is there a constructive reason for such prediction? Will Merrill Lynch get a prize or something if the prediction is correct?

Yep. They offered me 10:1 that it'd sell at $210, so I took the bet.

We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.

I thought we'd gotten over these puerile "Wii" jokes by now. For shame.

Re:Another Wii (1)

suv4x4 (956391) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346332)

We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.

HA-HA-HA! This is what you Americans get! You laugh at Wii name, but now Wii will Wii on all bad articles!
This one elaborate marketing campaign from Japan, now you learn how Japan people do business: like tiger, not like you, like a pig, afraid of little Wii.

Wait a second... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15345785)

Aren't these the same people the predicted an $800 price point for PS3, and a $500 price point for PSP? BIAS MUCH?

Re:Wait a second... (1)

PSXer (854386) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345818)

If true, I think it has more to do with the fact that the PSP and PS3 were billed as "OMG HIGH TECH1111" while Nintendo won't even tell us what the specs of the Wii actually are, and the rumors are that it's not incredibly powerful.

Seems like I didn't trust them... (4, Informative)

adminsr (919472) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345819)

Anyone remember Merril Lynch's $900 ps3?

linky [slashdot.org]

Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345874)

I'm guessing that someone paid them to make both of those statements. Maybe with cash, maybe with considerations.

Anyone could have paid ML to claim that the PS3 would be $900, including sony, who could have decided that they wanted a high estimate so they could tell consumers that it would be less expensive than predicted.

Nintendo has a vested interest in making people believe that their system will be inexpensive, especially if they can do it without actually making any statements themselves, so that they can pick their price based on component cost and competitor price at the time of release.

Paid them, or paid him? (1)

spun (1352) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346274)

The article doesn't say that Merril Lynch itself made that prediction, though it certainly implies it. From the fine article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Justin Post predicted Thursday that the new machine, which will be released this fall, will sell for $200."

The previous report on a supposed $900 price tag for the PS3 was authored by a number of analysts at Merrill Lynch, including Justin Post. This article makes no mention of a report or any other analysts, it just quotes Justin. Suspicious, no?

Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (1)

SoCalChris (573049) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345985)

Wasn't the $900 PS3 estimate based on Sony's actual cost, not the price it would be sold to consumers at?

Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346553)

The $900 price for PS3 was based on the supposed current wholesale price of the various components, with no regard to technology advancement, ramping up of production and vertical integration. When you put them all together, it won't cost $900 (although Sony is probably still making a loss on them).

(For an example of how ramping the production up will affect pricing, consider this: right now the possible market for Blu-ray drives is very small, maybe less than 10k units, thus the high wholesale price. If Sony can tell a manufacturer that they expect to order a million units in a certain timeframe, they can make them that much cheaper.)

Wow, flash news here (5, Informative)

masklinn (823351) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345841)

The NES had a launch price of $200, the SNES had a launch price of $200, the N64 had a launch price of $200, the GameCube had a launch price of $200.

Nintendo has had launch prices of $200 for 20 years now, you have to be pretty fucking impressive to even have the nerve to utter that they could launch a console for an unheard-of-before price of $200

Well, at least that time Merrill Lynch may be spot on.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

Distinguished Hero (618385) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346057)

Nintendo has had launch prices of $200 for 20 years now, you have to be pretty fucking impressive to even have the nerve to utter that they could launch a console for an unheard-of-before price of $200

Except that due to inflation and the depreciation of the US dollar, a $200 Wii would be a lot cheaper than a $200 NES in terms of real value, during their respective launch periods.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

masklinn (823351) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346123)

And we're supposed to care why? The $200 GameCube was cheaper than the $200 N64 which was cheaper than the $200 SNES which was cheaper than the $200 NES in inflation-adjusted price (a graphic on the previous article on the subject had figures of $225 for the GC, $254 for the N64, $293 for the SNES and $364 for the NES). The point is that the absolute price at release of every single Nintendo console has always been $200.

We're not talking "real value" here, we're talking absolute price points over 20 years.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

Distinguished Hero (618385) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346331)

As fiat money is a poor store of value, consider this scenario: hyperinflation occurs tomorrow. In that case, $200 tomorrow might represent $0.01 in today's USD. If that is the case, Nintendo would be no more able to sell a $200 Wii tomorrow than they would be able to sell a $0.01 Wii today. Of course, this is a hypothetical and extreme scenario; however, the point stands: while Nintendo might like to sell the Wii for $200 (nominal), the decrease in the value of money caused by inflation and depreciation may not allow them to.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

fbjon (692006) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346584)

Dude, Nintendo isn't the only company affected by inflation. If they're forced to raise the price, so will others. Besides, inflation isn't usually what I think of with electronics. More the opposite, that they get really cheap, really quick.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

DragonWriter (970822) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346685)

We're not talking "real value" here, we're talking absolute price points over 20 years.
Pedantic, I know, but: "Nominal" (contrast with "real") is the usual adjective, rather than "absolute", to distinguish current rather than constant dollar amounts.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

Bongo Bill (853669) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346282)

And the technology used to build them has been getting cheaper as well, even in adjusted value. It costs less than $100 to manufacture a Gamecube today, and as we've seen, the Wii isn't that much more powerful. $200 is reasonable. Moore's Law and stuff.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

linzeal (197905) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346063)

Yeah, it seems Nintendo always at least won in the price deparment, even if there were some issues with getting more adult themed games on it. Zelda games alone are always worth buying the console for. It took awhile from the Xbox launch to feel that I had made a sound investment, Halo to me was never as fun as the PC FPS at the time.

Re:Wow, flash news here (1)

MagicDude (727944) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346118)

It's even more impressive considering how much less buying power $200 has during every iteration.

As long as Moore's Law exceeds inflation... (4, Insightful)

mbessey (304651) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346569)

As long as Moore's Law significantly outpaces inflation, you should see the cost of most consumer electronics continue to decrease, while their capability increases.

If $200 buys you X transistors this year, and 1.5X transistors in 2008, then as long as inflation doesn't exceed 22% a year, you'll be getting more capability for less money each time.

Or at least that's true as long as the cost of the chips needed for an acceptable game machine make up a significant portion of the cost of the machine. When the chips are (much) less expensive than the rest of the components, the relative cost curve will flatten out.

-Mark

Potential Wii (5, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15345857)

I am planning on buying at least two of these. One for the family and another for the local children's hospital. I think this controller will really help in physical therapy dept. with the rehabilitation of children. If they offer games that appeal to older adults it could also be a Xmas gift for the grandparents/nursing home too! The boomer generation is the largest growing market and as of yet has been untapped. I think the people at Nintendo deserve a raise for this revolutionary product (pun intended)!

Re:Potential Wii (1)

suv4x4 (956391) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346383)

I think the people at Nintendo deserve a raise for this revolutionary product (pun intended)!

Yes but is the pun in "raise" because their console is called Wii, or is the pun in "revolutionary" because their console was called "Revolution" :D

Re:Potential Wii (1)

frankmu (68782) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346530)

childs play would be a great idea this holiday!

www.childsplaycharity.org

Hmmm (5, Insightful)

JeffSh (71237) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345869)

Console itself will be $200 isnt too far stretched, just still don't expect to get out the door without spending upwards of $200 MORE on games and accessories.

The raw console will be $200 with your standard one controller, but you'll not have everything you want for far more.

Re:Hmmm (4, Insightful)

ameoba (173803) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346037)

...and this is any different from what anyone else is selling?

Re:Hmmm (1)

AuMatar (183847) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346204)

1 game- $40 to $60. THats all you really need. Perhaps a memory card, an extra $30. A total extra $100.

ANd of course, a 360 or PS3 would have the same extra cost, and the games are slated to raise to $60.

Re:Hmmm (1)

VGPowerlord (621254) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346238)

...unless that game requires the controller shell, which may or may not be included with the Wii.

Re:Hmmm (1)

AuMatar (183847) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346504)

Ok. Your 1 game for the PS3 now requires the Guitar hero controller, add that to its price. Oh, and the EyeToy.

Now back to real data- a game and a memory stick to save on. Depending on the game, the memory stick may be optional, but we'll count it anyway. Still nowhere near the 360, let alone the ps3, and they need games bought seprately as well.

Re:Hmmm (1)

hibiki_r (649814) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346649)

The Wii has a 256MB internal flash drive. I'd be very surprised if you had to buy a n external flash card in the first couple of years of use.

Only $200 plus tax plus Virtual Console (1)

tepples (727027) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346219)

just still don't expect to get out the door without spending upwards of $200 MORE on games and accessories.

Provided you already have broadband and the 802.11b router that you bought for your DS, one bundled controller is enough to play Virtual Console games, especially if you're upgrading from a GameCube and its controllers still work in Wii mode.

Re:Hmmm (1)

AK__64 (740022) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346278)

Good point. If it IS $200 at launch, will that include a single controller only? How much fun is that? What about the pricing on additional controllers? Nintendo is working hard on showing off the Wii as a good "party-game" system, it's part of their whole method of revolutionizing gaming. I think they will be shooting themselves in the foot if the Wii ships with one controller, even if it is $200. Talk about screwing the fanboy...

Maybe a few weeks ago... (2, Interesting)

r_glen (679664) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345871)

This article was written last week. I still believe that Nintendo was all but ready to throw out the $200 figure until Sony announced their price at E3 (Nintendo was quoted as being quite surprised that Sony chose to announce their price so early, and everyone else was shocked at the number). Now Nintendo is going back to discuss the possibility of a $250-$300 price point. After all, their whole model is the appearance of affordability for casual gamers, and $250 is still LESS THAN HALF of a PS3 and considerable cheaper than a 360.

If it turns out to be above $250, I sure hope they include an extra controller and perhaps some sample games to show off functionality (Wii Sports, for example, seems fun but doesn't strike me as a game I would pay $50 for)

Re:Maybe a few weeks ago... (3, Insightful)

masklinn (823351) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346041)

Now Nintendo is going back to discuss the possibility of a $250-$300 price point. After all, their whole model is the appearance of affordability for casual gamers, and $250 is still LESS THAN HALF of a PS3 and considerable cheaper than a 360.

Duh? there'd be no fucking point in doing that. Consider the followings:

  • Microsoft will drop the price of the 360 as soon as the Wii and/or PS3 is released. This means that the Xbox360 Core will probably be around $200-$250 and Premium around $300.
  • Nintendo has always made a profit out of the consoles alone. And yet they never went for maximizing unit price. If they set the price at $200, they have no damn reason to change it
  • The lower the price of the console, the more games you can buy. Nintendo makes a profit on games too...
  • This is the 5th console generation Nintendo has taken part in. The release price points of their previous systems generation per generation were: $200, $200, $200 and $200. Why the hell would they try to raise the price if that one works so well?
  • Finally, Nintendo wants to open non-gamers market. Non-gamers do NOT drop money on games or consoles, releasing the Wii at $300, or even $250, would more than likely be very uncomfortable for their current target audience, and would hurt the sales.

Re:Maybe a few weeks ago... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346048)

Actually, I think they didn't announce the price because they want to know what the price of the XBox 360 is going to be before they announce the price of the Wii; I know the XBox 360 is currently priced at $300 and $400, but Microsoft could drop the price $50 and announce that the core XBox 360 is half the price of the core PS3 (or by $100 and announce the price of the Bundled XBox 360 is half the cost of the Real PS3). I would expect the Wii will be $149.99 if the 360 Core is $199.99, $179.99 if the 360 core is $249.99 and $199.99 if the 360 core is any more expensive.

Personally, with how expensive the PS3 is I expect the XBox 360 to maintain its price but they will bundle a game or two (Kameo and Project Gothem Racing I would bet) and the Wii will cost $199.99.

Re:Maybe a few weeks ago... (1)

AcheronHades (837485) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346150)

Yes $250 is less than half the price of the PS3, but the 'casual gamer' you talk about likely wont know what a PS3 is or if they do they wont be interested in it. Nintendo doesn't want people to say "Wow that's a great price compared to the XBox 360 and PS3". They want people to say "Wow that's a great price for a whole lot of fun". And in that case, it really doesn't matter what Sony or Microsoft does. I don't think Nintendo even wants to be placed in the same catagory as those other two.

I guess what I am trying to say is I don't think that the PS3 price point will affect Nintendo's price point for the Wii.

Another brilliant deduction! (0, Redundant)

ShadowMarth (870657) | more than 8 years ago | (#15345903)

NES: $200 SNES: $200 N64: $200 GC: $200 Wii: Pric... Er, $200

duh (0, Redundant)

minus_273 (174041) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346034)

considering nintendo has NEVER released a home console for anything different, i think it is obvious.
NES - 199
SNES -199
N64 - 199
gamecube -199

therefore Wii -199

Re:duh (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346484)

I'm not just picking on you, there are many other posters whom have made this claim, however, it is fallacious. The argument you have presented commits the fallacy of appealing to tradition. This is widely known as a fallacious premise, and therefore, in this case, cannot be taken seriously. Other examples of this flawed arguemnt would be, the Canadian's voted a liberal government 4 elections in a row, therefore election 5 will have a liberal government (it actually had a conservative one). More to the point, there are too many factors to say that just because they had a $200 price before, that they will have it now. The US dollar has had significant trouble since the NES days, a greater price may not affect sales, and they may have more costs to recover with the Wii.

Good news/bad news hypothesis (2, Interesting)

Lifelike (937107) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346107)

Look at what nintendo did with the name wii itself: a new, original (and many would say bad) name for a console.. so they released it well before E3 and let gamers blow off steam about it in advance so it didn't blot out their showing at the event itself with controversy. Hell, I think that's why Sony released its price figures early, so gamers would have time to get used to the idea of having to blow 700 bucks on a console. With good news on the other hand, its to their advantage to release the price info as late in the year as possible, so as to maximize the "wow, wii is friggin cheap!!" glow that will drive gamers into the stores and wiis off the shelf. So my predicition is that the price will be released late in the game, right before when the system is going to be released, and that it will be on the low end of the price ranges we're all quoting here.

What if .. the price is $600!. (0, Offtopic)

AzraelKans (697974) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346206)

Just playing what if with the fanboys...

What if...

The Wii price is: $600 bucks! (no wonder why it hasnt been revealed!)

-suddenly!

Nintendo Fanboys statements (after being resurrected via CPR):

"The PS3 price is not that bad after all, it is a good price ."
"$600, well a blu ray player costs $900"
"Is not that a big difference I mean the 360 was $500 on release"
"They are doing it to prevent shortages"
"Is worth every penny I mean you can play 20 years of nintendo games on it"
"The Wii controller alone is worth that price"
"Uh.. got $400 to spare? do you know if they still buy human hair at the wig factory?"

Just kidding guys ;) It probably will only cost $300.

E3 sidebar? (1)

Castar (67188) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346222)

Did anyone else notice Forbes' E3 sidebar on the article? It has a squinting, obese red-headed stepchild playing a GameCube. Talk about combining negative gamer stereotypes... I get the feeling that Forbes really has no clue about the current game market. Or perhaps they feel their audience has no clue.

Re:E3 sidebar? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346618)

It has a squinting, obese red-headed stepchild playing a GameCube. Talk about combining negative gamer stereotypes

I'm missing the negative part

$300 for a real Wii package. (0)

demonic-halo (652519) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346333)

By the time you add the nuchucku attachment and the super mario game, you're probably looking at a good $300 - $320

Re:$300 for a real Wii package. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346408)

Last I heard, the Nunchaku attachment was going to be packaged in with the console. No gurantee, that's just what I remember reading.

Re:$300 for a real Wii package. (2, Interesting)

PhotoBoy (684898) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346516)

Given the large number of games shown at E3 that require the nunchaku I think it's very likely that it will be included with the console.

A good guess (0, Redundant)

i_finally_got_an_acc (861122) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346355)

Considering that every single Nintendo console has launched at $200, he's probably not that far off. I would be very surprised if the launch price wasn't $200.

N64 = $250 (1)

Draconix (653959) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346524)

N64 was $250 at launch, not $200. :P

Alot more for your money in 1984 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346517)

$200 got you not only the Nintendo system but 2 controllers, 2 games (Super Mario Bros. and Duck Hunt) and the zapper.

Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (2, Interesting)

hyperm0g (867446) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346539)

What capabilities does the Wii command that are unachievable on the GameCube today? I think nintendo is just releasing the obligatory new platform as a method to increase saturation of it's 'wiimote' controller. They should have just bundled the controller with whatever handful of games they plan to have it work with and called it a day. Consider:

Wii is hardly more powerful than gamecube. GC 1.5 indeed. Partial Wii Specs [xbitlabs.com] vs. GC Specs> [psreporter.com]

They are releasing AAA GC titles [ign.com] simultaneously with Wii anyway.

Wii has 4 GC controller ports [wikipedia.org] and will accept GC discs [nintendo.com] as well as Wii ones.

What we really have here, just like GBA SP and DS Lite, is the GC Wii, with a pack-in wand controller and ethernet port.

Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (1)

WillAffleckUW (858324) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346590)

Actually, I think the Wii clocks out as slightly better than the Microsoft xBox (not the xBox360).

Nintendo will do what they've always done (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 8 years ago | (#15346557)

Nintendo has always released their consoles at $199 (with the exception of the very early release of the NES, which was later repackaged). They have lost a lot of market share, and selling the Wii at $199 will be a no brainer for almost any gamer to pick up. This article goes through the brief history of Nintendo consoles: http://ibloggedthis.com/2006/05/12/a-brief-history -of-nintendo-consoles-and-why-nintendo-wii-should- be-199/ [ibloggedthis.com] Also, as a parent, would you want to spend nearly $600 or $200? It's a very smart move, they would be stupid to sell it for more.

Game prices and piracy (3, Informative)

Ruediger (777619) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346579)

I would love to get a Wii (all my consoles were from Nintendo, with the exception the Atari 2600), but I belive the price will be prohibitive when it gets here (Brazil). The consoles are quite expensive, but the games are WAY expensive. I was looking forward to get a newer Nintendo system (my last one was the N64), but after seeing the price of the games for the Game Boy Micro, DS and GC I gave up. Just to give you an idea:

The cheapest Game Boy Micro I found goes for R$399.00 ~ $181.00 (expensive, but affordable considering you only need one console). GBA games: R$ 69.00 (older games) to R$249.00 (WTF!?) ~ $31.00 to $113.00

I don't know anyone who has any of these consoles, but I know quite a few people who have PS2. The PS2 costs about $295,00 (with mod chip installed), but the games are virtually free due to piracy.

Is the situation similar in other countries? That would explain why Sony sells so many PS2.

How life changes... (4, Funny)

RyoShin (610051) | more than 8 years ago | (#15346665)

An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers...

If you had uttered this phrase to me 8 years ago, I would have told you that you need better jokes.
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