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Apple and Windows Will Force Linux Underground

CmdrTaco posted more than 7 years ago | from the still-neat-on-the-server-right dept.

554

eastbayted writes "Tom Yager at InfoWorld predicts: 'At the end of the decade, we'll find that Apple UNIX has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows.' That's not a gloom-and-doom omen for the ever-popular Linux kernel, though, he stresses. While Apple and Microsoft will grapple for dominance of client and server spaces, Linux will be 'the de facto choice for embedded solutions.' And by 'embedded,' Yager means 'specialized.' With a push of a button and a flip of switch, he predicts, you'll be able to create a configured database and a mated J2EE server — all thanks to Linux."

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554 comments

Not really (5, Funny)

2.7182 (819680) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006757)

Linux was designed for the cheapskate, to download as much free porn as possible. Nothing stops porn, and the need for people to have it for free. Not to mention free software - the two are the yin and yang of the internet.

Re:Not really (4, Insightful)

neonprimetime (528653) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006802)

How again was this modded insightful? I could think of a few other things to call it, but insightful wasn't one of them.

Re:Not really (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006825)

Look, just your too much in the closet to be interested in ANY porn, doens't mean the average linux user is also. People who deny the impact of porn on software and the internet are out of touch with reality. Are you with the christian ?

Re:Not really (0)

2.7182 (819680) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006871)

I partially agree - but I think your are a little harsh. Let's not bring religion into it.

I am however a bit disappointed that a comment that I firmly believe to represent reality is modded down.

Re:Not really (3, Funny)

eln (21727) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006917)

With the fact that virtually all advances in the computing world have been either inspired by or utilized for the distribution of pornography, this could truly redefine the "embedded" market.

Re:Not really (0, Redundant)

Nutria (679911) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007003)

With the fact that virtually all advances in the computing world have been either inspired by or utilized for the distribution of pornography,

Well heck, that's not very broad of a statement, is it?

this could truly redefine the "embedded" market.

Oh, wait, you're trying to be funny. Ha ha. Not.

Re:Not really (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007037)

inspired by or utilized for the distribution of pornography

Man, it ain't limited to distribution. Ya got creation of, recruiting for ... advertising of. It's the whole nine yards. Not just distribution.

Re:Not really (0, Flamebait)

tritonman (998572) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007010)

Funny, for the most part, it does seem like more of a kid's O/S or a wanna-be hacker's O/S (There are exceptions of course, so no need to flame me). I don't see that any serious organizations are going to be switching from HP-UX or AIX to a version of unix made by Apple any more than they would be likely to switch to Linux. I think that our admins here would laugh if we said we wanted to switch all of our AIX servers over to OSX, I don't think I would be able to make that suggestion with a straight face either.

Embedded. (3, Insightful)

HugePedlar (900427) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006769)

Well, whatever may or may not happen on the desktop, I sure would rather see Linux dominating the embedded market than Windows or Apple. The whole concept of embedded Windows seems ugly to me - like dressing up a nightclub bouncer in a pixie costume.

Re:Embedded. (5, Funny)

jimicus (737525) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006913)

like dressing up a nightclub bouncer in a pixie costume.

This actually sounds like quite a good idea to me.

Re:Embedded. (4, Interesting)

GundamFan (848341) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006972)

Bank of America ATMs didn't lock up... they ran out of money or had hardware falures but they never used to lock up.

Now they run on Windows and they do... the touch screen is (seemingly) required for operation and they stop working all the time.

IF my life depended on Windows... really depended on it... I'd be long dead by now.

Re:Embedded. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007017)

Change -nightclub bouncer- to -Jabba the Hut- and you've got it...

I hope not (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006770)

I just rebooted from a hard crash on my new mac pro

Except for the fact (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006776)

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people like that.
OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows.

OSX isn't a serious solution.

-bms20

Re:Except for the fact (4, Insightful)

fistfullast33l (819270) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006879)

Not to mention that you have a hardware lock-in because Apple probably won't support you if you use hardware other than what they sell. Add to that the expense of purchasing an Apple versus a Dell server and I think this is a gigantic laugh of an article. Plus, now that Apple is using Intel hardware, the whole maintence argument that Apple parts last longer is out the window.

If you want to talk about Apple on the desktop versus Linux then I'd listen to the argument, but in the server world you can't compete. I really just wanted to respond to this article with a gigantic Simpson-esque "HA HA".

Re:Except for the fact (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006989)

I love that the Apple fanboys are out today. Both this and its parent are marked flamebait and troll. What makes them that again? Oh yes, they aren't pro-Apple.

Re:Except for the fact (-1, Offtopic)

hector_uk (882132) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007020)

try actually configuring an equal dell to any mac and it'll come up more or it'll have a serious disadvantage, like a laptop being 2" thick with a 45 min battery life, try acctually checking the facts before posting apple flaimbait as the mac pro and soon to be released xserve are very economic choices.

apple has always been reasonably priced they just appear expensive due to the face they don't do the low end tower which best buy flogs for $299

Re:Except for the fact (3, Interesting)

Whiney Mac Fanboy (963289) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007068)

I really just wanted to respond to this article with a gigantic Simpson-esque "HA HA".

Indeed - it's ridiculous. You notice the weasel way they have to qualify things as well:

By mid-2008, Apple's sales of systems with factory-installed Apple UNIX will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux.

That could mean that 90% of x86 systems will be bare bones by 2008, as OEMs will choose their own version of linux to install ;-)

Re:Except for the fact (0)

ZachPruckowski (918562) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006905)

"OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows."

That only matters in some areas. Once you have really fast hardware, speed because less important that useability. If we get to a situation where real 10-20 Mbps broadband is common (if not universal), we could well see people moving to hosting their own servers or their own content production.

One thing Apple is very good at is making things that were formerly very "geeky" mainstream. Things like podcasting, or streaming music from one computer to another. A lot of people I know do that without thinking.

Apple could invent a critical app that involves having your own server, and sell millions of "servers" in the form of $500 Mac Minis run by an SSH or VNC based GUI from the home computer. You keep your music on it, it serves as your firewall and router, it hosts images, a personalized chatroom, your email, and does your P2P for you (legally). Apple sells it for $300-500, even though it has less power than most low-end desktops, but it's all set up for Joe Average.

Re:Except for the fact (1)

mhazen (144368) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006957)

That only matters in some areas.



In the server world, hardware gets replaced because it no longer supports the workload, not because it has a prettier (or even better) GUI. Neither accountants nor CIOs tend to be the ones running the servers.



Re:Except for the fact (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006995)

If we get to a situation where real 10-20 Mbps broadband is common (if not universal), we could well see people moving to hosting their own servers or their own content production.

Broadband providers don't want you hosting their own servers and producing their own content. Broadband providers want to sell that capability to you extra. Witness how they tend to block incoming data or forbid you in your contract from running servers. Of course, they say it's for your own good in the name of "security" (if you're running your own servers, then you could get hacked).

Re:Except for the fact (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006926)

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people like that.

Consumers care more about software availability and price than "lock-in" per se, so this point is kind of off; there are better reasons to avoid Mac OS.

OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows.

"Substantially", on "most" benchmarks? This is contestable. But even if true, it's largely irrelevant to whether OS X is a "serious solution"; benchmark performance is not the huge selling point you think it is. Few people go, "Oh, I'd buy a Mac, but it's too slow compared to Windows".

Re:Except for the fact (5, Interesting)

Jeppe Salvesen (101622) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006950)

Vendor lock-in is something I'm willing to live with as long as the alternatives are insufficient - and there is an alternative. I'd like the choice to be between OSX and Linux. I quite like my MacBook. It's easy to use, it looks good, it performs well for its price. While I do Linux development at work, I like to have an enjoyable experience at home.

Slower than Linux or Windows? I'd like to see those numbers, please!

As for serious, by what standard? I'd readily admit I would not recommend running OSX on servers unless OSX adds geniune value (as it might in a Mac-based business).

In my world, Linux is best for backend. OSX is best for front-end. (while Windows is probably best at the standard business desktop)

Re:Except for the fact (5, Informative)

Erwos (553607) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007011)

"Slower than Linux or Windows? I'd like to see those numbers, please!"

MacOS X has infamously bad threading, which makes it an absolute dog for many important server apps. Anandtech, what I regard as one of the most trustworthy hardware sites on the Internet, has an article outlining the problems:
http://www.anandtech.com/mac/showdoc.aspx?i=2436&p =1 [anandtech.com]

Unless MacOS X for Intel has gotten miraculous improvements in this area, and I'm not aware it has, you'd be an absolute fool to use MacOS X for any server apps requiring high performance threading.

-Erwos

Re:Except for the fact (1)

TechDogg (802999) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006954)

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people like that.


Sure, a lot of the l337 peeps that are here on /. don't like that, but to your friendly neighbourhood mom, pops and granny, that's the only reality. And lets face it, they are way much more in numbers than the entire /. community.

With that said, I could see how OSX could become very popular by the end of the decade. Most people don't care about vendot lock in.

I was one of the founding members of a LUG at my college, but I since let go the idea that Linux was THE OS for the average user's desktop. It's not there yet, and frankly, I don't know when it'll be. I only use it on my servers now.

Re:Except for the fact (4, Insightful)

ElleyKitten (715519) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006974)

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people like that.
Most people get into a vendor lock-in solution without knowing or caring. The only people who wouldn't consider OSX because of vender lock-in have already switched to Linux (or BSD, or whatever)

OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows.
Yeah, and if companies can save money on technical staff by having an OS that's more user friendly, they'll do that. That means more to most businesses than benchmarks.

OSX isn't a serious solution.
OSX is a potential solution to anyone using Windows who doesn't like it. It's more secure, more stable, and doesn't require the technical retraining (or rehiring) that a migration to Linux would. Sure, some people and companies require more power and freedom than OSX has, but many don't. As OSX becomes more popular for personal use, it will become more popular for business use.

Re:Except for the fact (1)

hector_uk (882132) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006993)

anyone who thinks that is ignorent, OS X on intel has been shown to run apps about 2-5% faster than windows and equally on the few apps that linux and OS X run, to think it a bloated OS is silly, OS X is a very very serious solution and it's only held back by peoples prejudice against apple and the fact it looks pretty.

Re:Except for the fact (1)

12ahead (586157) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007008)

Let's rewrite this:

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people on Slashdot like that. So what?

OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows, but as everyone switching to OSX will buy a new shiny Dual Core Apple will get a super fast processoer, it is most likely still faster than anything they have ever experienced.

OSX isn't a serious solution. -1 Flamebait.

Look, Apple is not the solution to win it all, but right now it has the most momentum and if it was a Slashdot user, I reckon its Karma would still be positive :)

The myth of vendor lock in. (4, Insightful)

Anonymous MadCoe (613739) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007009)

I often read about vendor lock in, and wonder if people actually realise what they are saying.

ANY choice made in IT means some kind of lock-in. If I go all OSS I lock myself into something else. Of course one could argue that with OSS you can alwais "fix or change it yourself", but then again, most companies and users do not want to do that, they want to use functionality. By chosing OSS you lock yourself into that path, which is effectively no different from the vendor path.

Sometimes it can me more cost effective to do this, sometimes the option with "evil vendor lock in" is actually more cost effective.

The longer I am in IT the more just pick the tool for the fucntion. looking at the staff available, strategy of the company etc..

Vendor lock in as such is a myth, there is alwais a path that's being closed with every choice of tool...

To be honest, in a lot of cases MS actually provides a good sollution...

'..fact'?? Dude... you forgot the fact(s)... (3, Insightful)

Savage-Rabbit (308260) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007032)

Weeee... another troll.... Who modded this up?

OSX is a vendor lock-in solution, and not many people like that.

It's still more Open Source [macosforge.org] than Windows.

OSX is substantially slower on most benchmarks than Linux and Windows.

On the server?
On the destkop?
Care to elaborate?
Links perhaps?

OSX isn't a serious solution.

Really?!?! Based on all the facts you provided I suppose we will have to believe you!

Re:Except for the fact (1)

Marcion (876801) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007045)

I'm sure I remember once reading an article saying how no-one would ever buy Windows 2000 because of the all new Mac OS 9.

So yeah, I will carry on with Linux thanks.

"... will Force Linux Underground"

I thought we are underground to start with. I'm still waiting to go overground...

 

Is this bad? (2, Insightful)

joshetc (955226) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006777)

Is this prediction really such a bad thing? Most predictions I've heard as far as the future of computing goes point to us eventually moving to solely imbedded solutions. Powerful cellphones, smart washing machines, etc. A computer chip in every device.

Re:Is this bad? (1)

kfg (145172) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006861)

Most predictions I've heard as far as the future of computing goes point to us eventually moving to solely imbedded solutions. Powerful cellphones, smart washing machines,. . .

fly-by-wire flying cars, etc.

KFG

I'm waiting for .... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006867)

Powerful cellphones, smart washing machines, etc. A computer chip in every device.

I'm waiting for the "smart" vibrator and blow-up doll myself.

Re:Is this bad? (3, Informative)

eln (21727) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006904)

Well, it's bad in that it's based on fiction. First of all, Linux was not "made" for the embedded market, because the embedded market didn't really exist in any meaningful way when Linux was created. Linux happens to do well in embedded devices because it's so highly customizable (without cumbersome licensing costs).

He also mentions the idea of "embedded" Oracle and IBM databases. While this idea might work in a limited capacity for small businesses, it just doesn't fly for the enterprise clients, which are those companies' bread and butter. Enterprise clients wants to customize EVERYTHING. Trying to sell them a push-button cookie cutter solution just isn't going to fly. It's been tried, and it hasn't worked. You sell them a cookie cutter solution, and by the time you're done making everything just the way they want it, it would have been far cheaper and easier to just start out building a customized solution to begin with.

As for Apple taking over in the server space, I haven't seen anything to indicate that. No one I know even mentions Apple as a general server solution, much less gives any serious thought to it. Where I work now, we have tens of thousands of servers, 90% of which are running Linux. The remainder are running Solaris and HP-UX, with a very small number running other proprietary Unix-based systems or Windows. None of them are Apples.

Also, all of our systems are sold to us without an OS, and we install our own custom images on to them, so they wouldn't show up in pre-installed system sales. I would imagine most data centers and large hosting environments would be doing the same thing.

What he really means (1)

neonprimetime (528653) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006779)

FTFA

Now before anybody goes nuts, understand what I'm saying: Apple isn't going to win or even wage a religious war with Linux. The market will bring about the adjustments to which I'm referring. There will be more money than ever to be made with Linux, but sales won't derive from a model fashioned to compete with Windows and OS X. Microsoft and Apple will be the top-seeded fighters in general client and server computing platforms. Linux doesn't need or want to be the third man in that ring.

But don't get rankled by my prediction that Linux is going underground. It will thrive there.

Let me be the first to laugh at his prediction.

Re:What he really means (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007046)

Let me be the first to laugh at your inability to close tags.

Re:What he really means (1)

CaymanIslandCarpedie (868408) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007047)

I'm not sure laughing or crying is better. I mean is there any support for anything remotely like this prediction? I've just spent a few minutes googleing for server market share numbers, looking at NetCraft, etc and I could only find one site which even mentions Apple in the discussion of server market share and that was the MacObserver site from 2002. I assume on the rest of the market share breakdowns I saw Apple was included in the "Other" category.

Does anyone know of any half way reliable numbers on this?

overtaking linux at whose expense (5, Insightful)

kabloom (755503) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006783)

Apple UNIX will overtake Linux at the expense of whose market share? Windows? or Linux?

And have they figured out how to count Linux installations yet? (A very hard problem since you can just download Linux off the internet for free, so there are many more ways to get it)

Re:overtaking linux at whose expense (1)

Sfing_ter (99478) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006955)

Ahem... you can do the same with Winders and Mack0S... albeit it is not legal to do so, they are still available out there, on the internets... I believe you have to go to one of the dump trucks to get them though...

Re:overtaking linux at whose expense (2, Interesting)

jellomizer (103300) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006985)

Well Market share is a poor judge for Linux anyways. Almost everyone uses Linux every day (Google). Just because it is not installed on your Puney little computer doesn't mean people are not using it, as more and more services that were once installed on Computers as application become web services the need for Server based OSs will expand (Like Linux) and PCs will be more and more religated to smarter then average dumb terminal, where the "Application is hosted somewhere else" and the PC handles all the graphics, UI Interface, and calalculations. But all the storage and application versions will be hosted on the server. So Apple or Microsoft can be the domonate Desktop PC. But it really wont matter much in the future because you can do whatever you want on both systems, it will be just a matter if you like your menu bar on your window or on the top of your screen.

skewed vision? (5, Insightful)

Recovering Hater (833107) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006789)

I can't help but think this guy got all hyped up because of an Apple conference and just had to gush over it in print. Not to sound flamish or trollish, but what he fails to take into account is that Linux is seldom sold pre-installed. People generally buy the machine they want and then install linux post purchase. It is short sighted to only take sales into account when comparing OS use.

Re:skewed vision? (3, Insightful)

Whiney Mac Fanboy (963289) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006932)

It is short sighted to only take sales into account when comparing OS use.

Absolutely. Sales data!=Market share.

And just to bring that point home, OS X fans believe OS X's share of the market is rising because Mac sales are rising. One does not lead to the other.

Everyone I know who's 'switched' to a mac has bought it expressly to run windows. Sad, but true.

Re:skewed vision? (1)

ElleyKitten (715519) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007055)

And just to bring that point home, OS X fans believe OS X's share of the market is rising because Mac sales are rising. One does not lead to the other. Everyone I know who's 'switched' to a mac has bought it expressly to run windows. Sad, but true.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but wtf? Why would you buy an expensive computer that comes with an OS just to buy (or pirate) another OS when you could have bought a cheaper computer with your OS of choice? Is it 'cuz Macs are sooo pretty? How dumb are people with their money?

Re:skewed vision? (1)

mr_mischief (456295) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006939)

Well, it is InfoWorld. The computer news magazine so well-liked and valuable that they give away free subscriptions if your application says you influence what brand of printer your boss's boss might buy.

Re:skewed vision? (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006953)

Magazine reader skew seems to cause this as well. Whatever merits a full page ad. in infoPClogJounalgazette must be the next best thing, so you can compare the pros and cons of the "new thing" and write an article about it. It's shortsighted.

My company has a datacenter with about 200 racks of equipment. 10% misc. (like F5s, and switches) and the rest is Sun and Linux servers. Three years ago the server portion was 95% Sun 5% Linux. Now it's 30/70. The Linux servers have their faults, but they have proven to be on par with the Sun systems (we don't buy the cheap stuff).

In this case a typical 3/1 cost ratio was the compelling reason to migrate systems to Linux. We would need an equally compelling reason to move to Apple hardware. What would that be? It's not like the people that are currently servicing our infrastructure will become suddenly afraid of the command prompt. What killer-tool will Apple provide that will make administration sooo much easier that the current *ix crowd that services this farm will convince their managers to pay significantly more money for the hardware?

Whatever that application is, I haven't seen it.

Re:skewed vision? (1)

rtb61 (674572) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006964)

He could be thinking about servers as an appliance in the small business market. The mistake in that of course, is the server as an appliance is controlled remotely by a web interface on one of the clients.

So it ends up being an embedded solution on the server and whether the web interface is running on a Linux, Apple or windows client, doesn't really make much difference it is still a Linux server and because it will provide by far the cheapest per client model in the small business enviroment, Linux will dominate.

No licence fee per client, you are just paying for the hardware, the opposite of the microsoft model (microsoft are stuck with the fantasy free hardware model because the only other alternative is closing the doors or buying a hardware company).

Re:skewed vision? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006981)

Actually, it appears that he deliberately left them out. What the man actually wrote (emphasis mine):
Apple's UNIX (who knows what it'll be called by then) will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007. By mid-2008, Apple's sales of systems with factory-installed Apple UNIX will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux. At the end of the decade, we'll find that Apple UNIX has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows.
I'm not too sure what he exactly means by "commercial Linux", but if he only means the distro's pre-installed or sold in pretty boxes, I don't have a heard time believing that it's behind OS X. I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't already the case, so there isn't really very much to "overtake".

Re:skewed vision? (1)

Dr_LHA (30754) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007004)

"but what he fails to take into account is that Linux is seldom sold pre-installed"

This is also the very reason why Apple will overtake Linux, although it may be at the expense of Windows rather than Linux. "Joe Public" doesn't want to buy a computer and have to install an OS on it. Right now there aren't any mainstream vendors of computers that preinstall Linux. However sales of Macs are on the rise, and Joe Public is a big buyer, so mainstream "UNIX" sales go up, even though the buyer probably has no idea what UNIX is.

A/UX (1)

radioactivecow (865477) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006790)

You mean they're bringing back A/UX?

Useless predictions (0)

BadAnalogyGuy (945258) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006792)

The biggest surprise at the end of the decade will be flying cars.

My prediction (4, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006793)

In the year 2010, all of the worlds money will be replaced by toilet paper. "Stay lonely" will be the new "goodbye". Apple pie is no longer American, being bought out by the Canadians. Google releases new TattooSense, paying people to get chest-and-back tattoos of ads. George Bush, in a hostile take over, becomes King of the Planet and enslaves all of humanity. He uses his new slave army to move Mt. Everest -- mumbling something about proving an interviewer wrong. Donkey Kong is brought back to life, only to be shot three days later after going nuts in a barrel factory.

ADD rocks.

Re:My prediction (1)

ajlitt (19055) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007025)

I can't believe I wasted my precious karma on that SIGGRAPH article yesterday.

Re:My prediction (1)

trum4n (982031) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007028)

Americam money IS toliet paper. Our system is broken and failing. I have a feeling Linux will outlive America. Linux doesent crash everytime GW speaks.

Linux pushed off the desktop, not the server (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006804)

You see the trends clearly now. Windows vs. BSD with a proprietary GUI shell on the desktop; Windows vs. Linux on the server. That's because you don't need a nice GUI on the server, but the transparency of the code base for Linux and its toolchain mean that technical users can apply self help to their problems, rather than submit a ticket to Company A and wait 3-12 months.

Not following the "logic". (5, Insightful)

khasim (1285) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006806)

Despite the way most professional and commercial buyers see it, Linux is, as a colleague helpfully reminded me, a kernel, not an application platform. Linux is a backplane for device drivers, file systems, protocol stacks and low-level programming interfaces. It is a substructure for application services.
And that is different from any other OS ... how?

Apple's UNIX (who knows what it'll be called by then) will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007. By mid-2008, Apple's sales of systems with factory-installed Apple UNIX will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux. At the end of the decade, we'll find that Apple UNIX has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows.
Why?

You're making "predictions" without explaining the "logic" behind them. Why will all those countries / governments / cities currently deploying Linux drop it?

If they don't drop it, why will other ones go with Apple?

I believe Big Software vendors such as IBM and Oracle will use Linux to give unwieldy enterprise solutions the George Jetson treatment: Push a button, you've got an enterprise database, configured, loaded with sample data and listening for connections. Want a J2EE server with that? Flip this switch, it'll unpack itself, sniff out that database you installed and mate with it.
And this will fail to drive Linux adoption ... why?

If anything, that would seem to me to be something that would drive Linux adoption.

In other news... (1)

gorrepati (866378) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006807)

The poster, eastbayted, is hanged just after violating the church of slashdot. He is survived by his two wives, Mindoz and Fruity.

Current Commercial Investments (5, Insightful)

Falconwmua (537564) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006809)

Considering the number of enterprise companies that have invested in Linux and do exert some influence over kernel development(IBM, Oracle) and I don't see Apple letting Dell, HP, or IBM build XServes I don't see this happening. Does Apple make a good, stable product? Yes. Is their client (desktop version) more user friendly than Windows or Linux at this point? Yes (I use all 3, Macbook being less than a month). Will Apple carve out a decent chunk in a few different markets? I hope so but I don't see them moving linux out of the data center.

I don't mind that prediction at all... (1)

bangenge (514660) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006818)

Especially if it gives the OSS community to put out better software. As much as the OS market looks like a monopoly, it's still the competition that will fuel innovation. And no one will benefit more than us users.

I wish to make a very learned comment here : (2, Funny)

unity100 (970058) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006819)

Hahahahahahahahahaah ahahah hahhah hahahah ha ......

Re:I wish to make a very learned comment here : (1)

CanadianBoy (868003) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007024)

I agree, and on a further note:

When the hell was the last time you flicked a switch to install something!

The truth about mobile linux (0, Offtopic)

CockMonster (886033) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006839)

I tried to this story submitted but anyway... Linux phones will lock down users Mobile phone developers are scrambling to ensure that the openness of the Linux operating system does not anger telecoms regulators. Consumers who run Linux on a PC are used to having full control over the operating system, but should not expect that same level of control on a Linux powered mobile phone, warned Mike Kelley, senior vice president of engineering at PalmSource. The company is in the process of developing a Linux version for mobile phones to replace its current Palm OS. "Phones are not PCs. They tie in to a radio that is regulated," Kelley said at the LinuxWorld conference in San Francisco. "They are tied into very expensive back-end infrastructure that can be seriously disrupted by malfunctioning phones. full article [itnews.com.au]

O RLY? (5, Interesting)

$RANDOMLUSER (804576) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006842)

From TFA:
...there is exactly one Linux. It's a standard....
...I believe ... IBM and Oracle will use Linux to ... Push a button, you've got an enterprise database...

Have you ever tried to get Oracle running on anything but Red Hat? When are we going to face the fact that Linux distros are different from each other? When I say "I run Linux" I've really said something as vague as (here comes the car analogy) "I drive a car" (as opposed to "I drive an Oldsmobile"). When people pick on "Linux" what are they really picking on?

Re:O RLY? (1)

JFMulder (59706) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006986)

Actually, the latest release of Oracle runs on pretty much everything. I've had success deploying in under RedHat, Fedora Core, *buntu and other debian based Linux. I think Oracle actually supports Suse as well.

Re:O RLY? (2, Informative)

pyite (140350) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006996)

Have you ever tried to get Oracle running on anything but Red Hat?

A little while ago, I would have agreed that Oracle has the most unfriendly installation ever. But look at the Oracle Express product. Here's how I installed it:
apt-get install oracle-xe
I'm not kidding, either. Check it out here [oracle.com] . (The article applies to Kubuntu, I think, but I installed it on vanilla debian just fine)

Yeah, maybe in a web monkey's dev lab (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006843)

Apple? MacOS take any server share at all? To be honest, taking away commercial UNIX desktop share isn't exactly a big effort - most of the Sun guys I know use Apple laptops and most of the HPUX guys I've met use Windows.

No way on the serverside, though. MacOS is unreliable, balky, slow, RAM-hungry and generally inappropriate. It makes a lovely desktop but doesn't make an ideal server by any stretch of the imagination. In addition, their hardware is sub-par (although very pretty) and underpowered compared to what other vendors are putting out there.

Give me Sun opteron boxes running either Solaris or a certified Linux for all the small jobs and give me big, solid, heavy SPARC hardware for the big iron. I work in a *very* large (over 10k servers) environment and Solaris still completely dominates the database server/large app server end with Linux running web servers, the occasional customer firewall and other small jobs. HPUX is still a big force with a lot of appplications only running on HPUX, although migration to Solaris is a happening thing.

There is no way any serious organisation is going to start switching to Xserves. They're just not up to scratch compared to the current Opteron lineup. Maybe when I can get a 16 or 32 core Xserve with 32Gb of RAM they might start having the grunt, but until then they're just pretty looking.

Re:Yeah, maybe in a web monkey's dev lab (1)

ZachPruckowski (918562) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006933)

You assume Apple doesn't try to improve OS X's server performance. It's never really been a focus for them, but if it was, they could do to servers what they've done to other technologies: Make it so that anyone with any tech experience can learn it in a weekend. Apple can win by being easiest, not by being fastest.

Re:Yeah, maybe in a web monkey's dev lab (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007061)

This doesn't account for that fact that real servers need a real, ground-up architecture. I'm not talking about small webservers, I'm not talking about little appservers running an AJAX webapp for five concurrent users. I'm talking about the average deployed server host these days seems to have 4Gb of RAM per CPU. The swap thread was a reminder as to the slashthink - it never passes a personal Linux machine. I'm talking about Oracle instances pushing enough IO to hammer their fibre channel connections with 256Gb of RAM and 32 physical CPUs. I'm talking about the appserver consuming 16Gb of RAM with java processes alone on an 890.

The server world is a lot bigger than rack dense x86. Rack dense machines are cheap and fun and useful but they don't run big database loads (no, a stack of them in a RAC doesn't count), don't saturate their Gig-E running CPU intensive applications and more to the point:

NOBODY CARES HOW EASY TO USE ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS ARE.

Seriously. Nobody cares. Nobody wants it to be too easy. The vendors don't want to lose out on selling consulting and service, integrators don't want to lose out on that work, Oracle DBAs are paid well for a reason and everyone likes it that way. The customer pays up and doesn't worry about it. Nobody cares whether or not the application is easy to deploy, they've already paid a huge amount of money in licensing/development costs and paying another sysadmin or DBA to look after things is a drop in the ocean AND keeps sysadmins and DBAs in work.

Nope (1)

toochoos (991616) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006855)

By the end of the decade, the world will have exploded due to either the fall of meteorites or total nuclear war.
There won't be nor electricity nor Apple nor Microsoft.

Entrenched in Serverland (2, Interesting)

GreggBz (777373) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006869)

Linux, BSD, Solaris and Windows rule the ISP server market.
I've never touched an OSX box that did anything really important.
Most don't take it seriously, and Apple has not built many 1u rack mounts, but I guess they have a new product now? I just checked..

Wrong (1)

KeithCu (925649) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006872)

He assumes that Windows marketshare isn't going to decrease, and implies that Mac is fighting for marketshare with Linux for the market of "Unix based computers."

Linux desktop marketshare is taking off and will take marketshare from Windows. Look at OLPC, Ubuntu at 6 million users and doubling every 8 months, the recent news of an Indian state moving to free software, etc. Each doubling of users will double engineering resources to cause Linux to pick up further steam. Sure, Linux will dominate the embedded space, and it is well on its way to doing that already, but it will also own the desktop space as soon as its last 10,000 bugs are fixed. [keithcu.com]

Mac marketshare might grow somewhat from its piddly levels today, especially given its new ability to run Windows, but people buy PCs for the price and the choice and while Apple's outlook might be somewhat positive, their marketshare will never hit double-digits.

I can't see the Mac OS having long-term importance. Once Linux swallows Windows, obsoleting the Mac OS will be just a snack. If a Mac of the future is running FireFox, OpenOffice and tons of other free software, why not just run the whole stack and throw out the few, tiny, proprietary Apple pieces? Is anyone even a fan of Quicktime?

Apple Picking (2, Insightful)

mhazen (144368) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006873)

What is it with the high percentage of Apple stories that make the front page? For the 95% of us who aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, it's getting ridiculous. Everything Apple does seems to make headline news. What's next, "Jobs visits executive washroom"? It's starting to make the front page look less like an amalgam, and more like Apple marketing.

With all of the Mac crowd self-gratification going on, perhaps it's time we stopped calling Cupertino's golden child "Apple", and instead refer to them as "Fapple".

I disagree (1)

Pao|o (92817) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006880)

There are still those who want the luxury of an Open Source OS that's free like beer. Just ask any starving student or long haired hippie. ;)

http://pinoymac.org/ [pinoymac.org]

Re:I disagree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007001)

oH boy! Where do you live ?? I want to live in a place where I can get my beer for free!

Looks great but (1)

BeoCluster (995566) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006882)

Can I make a Beowulf Cluster of linux kernels ?

Reality Check: No change here. (3, Insightful)

Oz0ne (13272) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006884)

Linux *is* underground for all intents and purposes. Ask a bloke on the street if they've heard of Linux. If they're not in IT, web design, or a related field chances are they have not.

Ask a bloke on the street if they've heard of windows, or apple. Even if they don't own a computer, they probably have.

Linux has made great strides in the past 10 years, but let's not confuse what it is. Linux is the survivalist to windows' soccer mom.

Re:Reality Check: No change here. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16007002)

Linux is the survivalist to windows' soccer mom.

Excellent news! After all, in a fight, would you bet on the soccer mom or the survivalist?

Just wondering... (1)

rchatterjee (211000) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006895)

Have any tech journalist's long term predictions ever turned out to be right or even close? Was anyone back in 2000/2001 saying that by 2006 sites like myspace will have the most traffic? In 1996 were people talking about something like the ipod and other mp3 players having the ubiquity they does today?

Nothing is going to stop the open source evolution (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006899)

I think its just another FUD article because there's no facts that would support his claims. Current server market share, and there's a reasonable chance that Linux might gain huge market share in the corporate desktop field soon. Judging from the TCO, overall higher security of the Linux platform(including absence of viruses), the absence of games, along with the availability of a wide scale of development tools, makes it an ideal platform, ready for deployment. Its important to note that government insitutions and companies do heavily rely mostly on custom enterprise applications, which is why any open source platform will offer more flexible environment in order to deploy such solutions. What's still missing still is a bunch of professional third party applications(and those are rather heavily used as home user applications as well).The home user of course has to wait. There's still a lot of applications that are missing in this area. But it will happen sooner or later.

Re:Nothing is going to stop the open source evolut (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#16006968)

Forgot, there's one important thing to note. Such thing as Apple unix overtaking Linux will never happen, until Apple decides to make their software products independent from their hadrware. And AFAIK, the actual unix he's talking about is darwin, and it's open source, but there's a number of technologies that aren't open source, but they do exist in open source form either in the Linux kernel itself of happily run on top of it. That include drivers, graphics and audio technologies(X, Jack, etc).

ramble ramble (1)

hyperbotfly (934309) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006903)

I predict that a chipmanzee will be our next president, we will have a permanent settlement on mars in two years, world peace will be declared tomorrow, pigs will fly, etc. Futhermore, I feel no need to explain my position.

O RLY? (1)

A.K.A_Magnet (860822) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006907)

On the contrary, I see Debian Ubuntu, Suse and Fedora/Red Hat more and more on the desktop. Once it has finally catched up with some of the requisites of the corporate environment (eye-candiness for the lame Windows admins, graphical userfriendlyness, + monitoring tools, clients for obscure protocols/formats), it will be shipped OEM by hardware vendors (look, Lenovo will ship Suse [crn.com] soon if not already). And they will offer support.

GNU/Linux adoption can only grow on the desktop. Just look at the trends for the home desktop (Ubuntu gaining on OSX and Windows). The same will come true (with Ubuntu or not) in the corporate environment too. And Apple will remain a niche market, because their "holier than thou" attitude discards them, and OS X is far from GNU/Linux (yep, you read it well; not only XGL/Compiz @ GNOME/XFCE will own Aqua in no time [even if Aqua has some good stuff, most end-users don't care, they only see eye-candiness], but under the hood, GNU/Linux is far more customisable [including "lock-able", that's what companies want] than OS X). It's not only GNU/Linux that will gain share, but all F/OSS.

This Tom Yager is on the same stuff as John Dvorak; instead of their speculations, they should tell us who their dealer is.

Dream on... (1)

ragoutoutou76 (832439) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006908)

Really, I don't see MacOSX beating Linux as long as Apple requires you to buy Apple hardware to run it. In order to beat Linux, MacOSX should become available on HP/DELL/IBM/[pick your preferred server manufacturer]/... hardware, instead of being only available along with the poor XServe ... And I'm not talking about the bad performances of the operating system itself while used in a server context...

I too can be a short-term futurist! (4, Funny)

Laxitive (10360) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006912)

In the future, no-one will wear pants! The pantsaphogia virus, to be engineered by terrorists in 1999, will leave us all restricted to wearing breezy summer dresses or short-shorts.

In the future, the only colors allowed will be those based on citrus. This will be mandated by the Tangerine Council world government, headquartered in Morocco. In an effort to reintroduce all the beautiful colors of the world into human products, scientists will genetically engineer strains of lemon with tunable 48-bit color, with the exception of mauve, and there will be much rejoicing.

In the future, spammers will form a revolutionary movement to fight for their right to speech, and incite a rebellion. The rebellion will be crushed mercilessly, but create the foundations for the great Spam Wars of 2015.

That's all for now.

-Laxitive

Developing world? (3, Insightful)

jschottm (317343) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006916)

As the second and third world countries continue to develop, they will increasingly use computers. Apple's market strategy cannot support that need - a company whose main desktop starts at $2500 just can't work in a country where the average worker makes that in a year. Even a Mac Mini is far beyond the reach of most people and companies in that area. On the other hand, those people will be far more likely to use recycled low-end x86 systems and inexpensive RISC systems (China's homegrown chip springs to mind) and the OS of choice on those systems will be Windows (quite likely pirated), Linux, or xBSD. That will create both a huge user and developer base for Linux.

The article also fails to explain why companies such as IBM and HP, who've invested much in the server side of Linux, would just walk away from that investment. I'm sure that IBM consultants will sell Apple products in the times where they are the exclusive fit for the need, but they can't control or steer Apple's direction the way they can Linux, which is one reason they push it so hard.

Duh (3, Insightful)

CaptainZapp (182233) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006918)

Apple's UNIX (who knows what it'll be called by then) will overtake commercial Linux in rate of revenue growth by the end of 2007.

Well duh, Apple OSX (or whatever it's called by then) costs 100$. Ubuntu Linux (for example) is free as in gratis. How many Ubuntu licenses do you have to sell to reach the revenue of one "Apple Unix" license?

By mid-2008, Apple's sales of systems with factory-installed Apple UNIX will exceed the total combined sales of x86 systems factory-shipped with commercial Linux.

That's very well possible, since there are hardly any systems (specifically in the Desktop realm) which come pre-installed with Linx. Usually you flatten the hard disk of a Windows taxed box, or you build from scratch if you want to run Linux.

You sir are either dim, dishonest or just a plain old idiot.

Not Likely (1)

mhazen (144368) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006931)

I can't see corporate America wanting to switch to an OS that charges hundreds of dollars a year per seat for what most would consider minor patches and updates.

letting accountants define tech trends .... (1)

petes_PoV (912422) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006935)

.... is always a bad idea. This article is about revenue and sales volumes.

What do we know about the majority of Linux installations?

Right, it's downloaded for free, or purchased at low cost by inividuals. These "facts" are completely invisible to the enterprise/financial people who were the drivers for this article.

Linux will be alive and well by the end of the decade (or in 3 years time). Nothing much will have changed, except more apps will run across all platforms.

You never know, Apple's UNIX may still be there, too.

Different parts of an expanding market (1)

m0llusk (789903) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006940)

Mac OS products from Apple require payment for major updates made available at vendor convenience which may include bugs requiring workarounds, performance downgrades, and changes to the user experience that may not be desired.

Linux OS products supplied by the community at large require payment only for professional extensions or support and can be tuned to avoid using versions with bugs that require workarounds, to avoid performance downgrades, and to enable the user experience to be customized for both convenience and consistency.

The increasingly strong popularity and large installed user counts of the most recent Linux distributions is evidence of a growing and competitive market with many kinds of customers. Also notable with recent Linux distributions is the amount of attention given to toolkits, integration, and style elements, all of which are well outside the kernel and kernel extensions that the article claims is at the core of all Linux development.

US-centric outlook (4, Insightful)

non (130182) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006945)

His opinion only reflects corporate/consumer use in the US. In the rest of the world Linux use is growing at the expense of Windows.

Sure, maybe, doubt it. (1)

KlomDark (6370) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006948)

Sounds like a plausible secenario, as long as you pretend that the whole world is the United States. However, with so many people/governments/schools in all the other countries taking to Linux, that's going to create a huge realm of competition and applications that are not accounted for in the article.

So I really doubt this is anything but some MacFan having dreams. (Or posturing to try to inflate Apple stock.) Apple's still dying (As a computer company anyway) in the long term. They may end up an entertainment company, but their machines are irrelevant for the long term. Unless Apple can figure out a way to undercut the price of a server that can run either Linux or Windows. Nobody gives a shit about 'pretty' in the server room.

Why Don't These Guys Just Hold Up A Sign? (1)

psbrogna (611644) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006970)

"The following message brought to you courtesy of X?"




Fine print: The previous statements represent what X would like to happen and have nothing to do with what might happen.

I disagree... (1)

Daytona955i (448665) | more than 7 years ago | (#16006999)

I find apple is better than Linux on the desktop and for average users but in my opinion, Linux is better than OS X on the server end. That's why my laptop has OS X on it and my servers all have linux on them.

The greatest thing about "apple's UNIX" (to quote the article) is that it plays nicely with linux. Now I can have OS X and Linux boxen on the same network and it's fairly easy to jump back and forth.

I think apple and Linux can both exist and give the end user <gasp> choices. </gasp>

Can't afford it... (1)

Frosty Piss (770223) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007026)

At the end of the decade, we'll find that Apple UNIX has overtaken commercial Linux as the second most popular general client and server computing platform behind Windows
Not if Apple doesn't lower the price of entry into the Apple OS universe. Apple is just too damn expensive for most people. Sure, like a fine automobile, you get what you pay for, but we can't all afford that kind of luxury.

Hmmm... (1)

10Ghz (453478) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007033)

On servers, Linux has about... what, 30% share (and growing)? OS X has maybe few %, if that. If they plan to overtake Linux in servers in just few years, they better get cracking! Then we have supercomputers, where Linux has about 70% share in top500. Either Windows and OS X are about to overtake Linux there as well, in just few years, or supercomputers are considered to be "underground". Which one is it? Regardless, I find neither possibility likely.

Client-OS'es are a different matter. OS X has about 3-5% share, and Linux has maybe 2-4%. And I can see both of them going up from there. My guesstimate is that by the end of the decade, Linux has about 4-7% share on the client-side, while OS X has about 5-8%. I really don't see any indication that OS X (or Windows) are going to remove Linux from the desktops. The core-users of Linux are VERY unlikely to stop using it, and as the functionality and ease of use improves, it becomes more and more suitable for "regural" users. OS X is suitable for Joe Sixpack (mostly at least), but it requires Apple-hardware. And Windows is getting too hardware-hungry, and it doesn't really offer any tangible benefits that Linux does not offer. Well, maybe games.

Hmmm... (1)

14CharUsername (972311) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007039)

What advantages does MacOS have over BSD? If we're talking servers here a GUI is actually a negative not a positive ince it takes up resources and has more stuff running which could have security holes. Maybe it will be easier to install and configure. But Debian/Ubuntu is pretty damn easy now.

This guy is obviously talking out of his ass.

The AOTFA misses the point (1)

Dystopian Rebel (714995) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007044)

The Author Of TFA fails to consider the biggest object on the radar: the Open Source Movement.

And it's big enough to scare Monoposoft. Consider:

A) The Web is where it's at. One competent, cross-platform browser that supports a very high level of Web interactivity makes the choice of client OS much less important.

B) Where the above is true, the unspecialized user with limited funds will choose piracy or FOSS. Monoposoft and the US government are chasing pirates (any except China) and suing families.

C) There are thousands of talented programmers giving their energy to design something free and international, with good design and often-amusing, non-corporate quirks. If you don't like what you see, you roll up your sleeves and you change it. Or you offer a bounty. Simple.

D) Large, successful corporations backing FOSS as part of a new generation of hardware-software consultancy. Yes, I mean deep-pocketed folks like Google (googol of cash) and IBM as well as smaller players whose best interest is not served by Redmond's domination.

OS X is very nice and Apple makes cool hardware and has a good plan. They want to make gains with the new generation of home users who benefit from A and B in particular. Things can change quickly but Monoposoft has feet in the corporate doors and has plentiful money too -- they can buy their way into any market.

Linux is a wedge with a formidable force behind it. It is MUCH more than just a "good kernel".

hrmm i dunno (1)

Danzigism (881294) | more than 7 years ago | (#16007048)

i wouldn't really like to see Apple takeover this whole movement.. not as long as they're charging for their software.. an Apple OS of any sort will probably never be opensource as well.. the fact they even mention Linux is kind of strange, considering it's *BSD they should be talking about.. they're two totally different things, and will remain seperate for quite some time I think..
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